Chicago Cubs: The Third Basemen

Third Base

2012 Overview: To say that third base play in Chicago was poor in 2012 is an exceptional understatement. Luis Valbuena received the bulk of the playing time of the position, amassing a very bad .219/.310/.340/.650 line. For the fifth straight year, Valbuena overwhelmed AAA pitching, showing that he isn't gaining much from his time in the minor leagues. He then received his third career season with more than 300 MLB plate appearances with awful results.

Sadly, the other options were even worse than Valbuena. Ian Stewart once again conveyed that his early-career success in Colorado was a mirage. The former elite prospect stumbled to a .201/.292/.335/.627 line before shutting down for the season with mid-summer wrist surgery. Stewart did manage to hit for a bit of power, but looked so lost at the plate for most of his plate appearances that it's very difficult to imagine him being a major leaguer for more than one or two more seasons.

Josh Vitters produced the worst line that I have seen in my 26 years, even considering his minimal opportunities. Over 109 plate appearances, Vitters hit to a .121/.192/.202/.395 line. Breathtaking...in that it makes breathing difficult when I consider how spectacularly bad Vitters was. However, unlike Valbuena and Stewart, Vitters still offered plenty of reason for optimism on the year. In his first taste of AAA, Vitters mashed to his finest professional performance of .304/.356/.513/.869 over 452 plate appearances. He kept his strikeout rate relatively low (17%) while improving his walk rate to 6.6%. Despite his dreadful MLB debut, he still did enough in 2012 to suggest that he has a major league future.

Nate Samson and Matt Cerda made up the third base duo for Tennessee. Samson is a non-prospect as a 25-year-old with no offensive profile. Cerda has no power in his game, but his incredible walk rate (never below 11%, it reached 17.5% last year) gives him a chance to carve out a role. However, he was scooped up by the Cardinals in the Rule 5 draft's minor league portion.

Daytona's Christian Villanueva is the team's best hope for a long-term solution at third base and he didn't disappoint in 2012. After arriving from Texas in the Ryan Dempster trade, Villanueva continued to flash a well-rounded offensive profile en route to a .279/.353/.427/.780 line for the season. He added 14 stolen bases and 14 home runs over 125 games. Scouting reports indicate that Villanueva's best chance to earn a major league job is via his defense, so the strong offensive showing is encouraging. At 21, he is on the right path developmentally.

The lower levels feature a nondescript trio and one name of note. Peoria's Dustin Geiger is an all-or-nothing power hitter with good power numbers and no other tools. In the rookie league, Jacob Rogers overwhelmed the competition as a college player, but it's hard to have much hope for the 40th round choice. Similarly, 35th rounder Ben Carhart offers little to dream on. However, Boise's Jeimer Candelario has shown plenty. After a breakout showing as a 17-year-old in the Dominican summer league in 2011, Candelario moved to Boise and held his own with a .281/.345/.396/.741 showing. It was hardly a dominant performance, but any time a switch-hitting 18-year-old makes it through the season with a solid line intact, it's an encouraging sign.

2013 and Beyond: 2013 just won't be pretty in Chicago. Stewart yet again seems primed to be handed the starting gig. After 2012's abject failure, it's hard to have much hope for the former top prospect. Given the bodies in the organization, fans should be on the lookout for three things. First, Josh Vitters forcing his way back to Chicago. Vitters managing another strong showing at Iowa and demanding a call up is the best development the team could have at third base this year. Second, Villanueva maintaining his offensive profile at Tennessee. Third, Candelario keeping it together in a full-season league. The teenager doesn't need a breakout performance; if he can put together a similar line in a full year of ball, his prospect star will shine a bit brighter again.

Overall Perception: Vitters, Villanueva, and Candelario are all nice players, but none of the trio project as anything better than an average major league third baseman even if their developments are smooth. Given the limited ceilings of the organization's top prospects and the gaping hole on the major league roster, this is possibly the team's worst position group. Fans will be pining for Aramis Ramirez in 2013 and likely into the future.

Final Rating: 1.0

*Note: It's not all bad. The shortstops are coming up next...

Edwin Jackson, Good MLB Starting Pitcher

I'll be honest: I've had a thing for Edwin Jackson for a few years now. He has endeavored on a very unique career path to date. Jackson has already played for the Dodgers, Rays, Tigers, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Cardinals, and Nationals prior to reaching free agency. However, with his four-year, $52M contract in tow, it appears as though Edwin will finally be able to settle down as a Cub. So what kind of player did the team sign?

The Pitches

While most major league starting pitchers thrive on two pitches while adding solid third and sometimes fourth pitches to the mix, Jackson is a rarity: he survives almost exclusively on a fastball-slider combination. He recently developed a cutter that he threw 5% of the time in 2012 and he does sprinkle in a hard change up. But for his career, 83.5% of his deliveries have been fastballs or sliders.

His fastball is fast. Very fast. For his career, he averages 94.3 miles per hour on his fastball. In 2012, his 93.5 mph average ranked 8th among qualified MLB starters; his career number would have tied Justin Verlander for 4th. Simply put, Jackson throws gas with his heater and the pitch is responsible for much of his success.

His slider is, unsurprisingly, also a power offering. The pitch comes in at 86.8 mph for his career; his 85.8 mph mark in 2012 was the 12th hardest delivery among qualified starters. The slider is a true wipe out offering. It is decidedly the pitch I am most excited to watch for the next few years. Ryan Dempster is riding a nasty slider to an excellent career; Edwin's slider complements his fastball well enough for him to do the same, if to a lesser degree.

The Production

Given a big, diving fastball and a hard, nasty slider, one would expect enormous production from the 6'3", 210 lbs. 29-year-old. And the results have been good. He has made 31+ starts for six straight seasons. While pitcher health is inherently fickle, Jackson's reliability is an important piece of his value.

His strikeout totals have rarely impressed, instead hovering between 6.6 and 8 SO/9 for much of his career. Importantly, his walk rate has decreased substantially as he has developed: in his first five partial seasons, he did not produce one year with a BB/9 below 4. He got down to 3.78 in 2008, then has been below 3 BB/9 three our of the past four years including a career best 2.75 mark in 2012. He has allowed his fair share of home runs in his career but they hardly present a crippling problem to the pitcher.

In his first three years as a full-time starting pitcher (2007-2009), Edwin produced FIPs of 4.90, 4.88, and 4.28. However, since then he has improved to 3.86, 3.55, and 3.85. Had he produced the number with the Cubs, his 3.85 mark from 2012 would have trailed only Ryan Dempster, James Russell, Jeff Samardzija, and Shawn Camp.

By virtue of making 31+ starts with solid if unspectacular peripherals, Jackson has notched a strong four-year run of WAR from 2009-2012, beginning with a 3.6 WAR campaign in 2009 and following that season with 3.9, 3.9, and 2.7. According to Fangraphs, Jackson has been worth $61.1M over that time.

The Perception

Perhaps the trickiest issue with Jackson is how his production meshes with his public perception. His career arc no doubt influences the public view of him as an underachieving, middling starter. The aforementioned fastball-slider combination places him in the company of the game's elite. Because his production matches pitchers a tier removed from baseball's front-line starters, Jackson seems to cause more frustration and disappointment than happiness and satisfaction.

The Player

In the end, Edwin Jackson is not coming to replace Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, or Carlos Zambrano. While he conceivably could make "the leap" in his late-20s, it's more likely that he continues to pump out above-average, unspectacular seasons while making 30+ starts. If his cutter or change up takes a step, the leap is a more reasonable hope. Otherwise, he has a good chance to maintain his status as a non-elite good starting pitcher.

My Take

I absolutely love this signing for many of the same reasons that I was excited about the possibility of Anibal Sanchez joining the Cubs rotation.

First and foremost, Edwin Jackson is a good pitcher! The Cubs do not have enough of those. It's a great move on that very basic level.

Second, looking to 2014 and 2015, the free agent crop of starting pitchers is abysmal. If the Cubs genuinely hope to compete in the coming years, they needed to find at least one starting pitcher via free agency; they lack the organizational depth to trade for multiple solid major league starting pitchers. Signing Jackson now allows Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein to pencil a reliable arm into the 2014-15 starting rotations with the added bonus of improving the 2013 club.

Third, while I understand frustration on the part of scouts and general managers that Jackson has not evolved into an ace given his power arsenal, pitching is still about getting outs and preventing the opposing team from scoring runs. The manner in which the pitcher records outs may matter, but it is not as important as the pitcher recording more outs than other pitching options. There are really two separate arguments embedded in this point, so I'll isolate them.

- Lots of pitchers can throw hard. A number of Cubs with blazing fastballs but horrible results come to mind. Let's take Todd Wellemeyer for example. Wellemeyer routinely worked in the high-90s. Generally speaking, throwing harder is a good thing as it shortens the period of time in which a batter can react to the pitch. It's nice to have a pitcher that throws so hard, but even though Wellemeyer throws harder, Jackson is a much better pitcher because he is better at getting outs and preventing runs. Thus, give me Jackson.

- Having looked at two pitchers who throw similar pitches but get different results, let's look at the opposite: two pitchers who get similar results through wildly different means. I call this the Ted Lilly experience. Lilly was a wonderful pitcher who got by on a high-80s fastball, a loopy curveball, strong location, and being left-handed. There's nothing wrong with Lilly being successful with those tools. Realistically, more power to him for succeeding with the limited tools. In some sense, Lilly can be considered to maximize his abilities, squeezing 3 WAR seasons out of a very limited package while Edwin can be seen as muddling along to 3 WAR seasons given his far more impressive tools. Here we diverge from the previous paragraph. Given my options between Ted Lilly and Edwin Jackson, all things being equal, I'd take Edwin Jackson every time. Lilly signed a four-year, $40M deal as a 31-year-old prior to the 2007 season. Given the increase in player salaries over the past six years and Edwin's age advantage, Lilly's $10M AAV in 2007 is roughly equivalent to Edwin's $13M AAV in 2013. The major difference is the ceiling. While Lilly was wringing every ounce of production out of his body, Edwin could jump to $20M of production for a couple of years, turning this contract into a big win for the Cubs. Given the choice of a soft-tosser or a flamethrower with similar production, I'll take the flamethrower as long as the price is the same.

In the end, Edwin Jackson provides the Cubs with a sorely-needed stable arm. He should be able to pair with Jeff Samardzija for the next few years to make the foundation for a solid starting rotation. His signing enables the club to act freely with Matt Garza. Should they trade Garza for a couple of high-ceiling minor leaguers, they still have two solid starters to build around instead of only one. Should they extend Garza through his useful years, the club is then just one good starter away from a playoff rotation. Either way, bringing in a good pitcher near his prime makes too much sense not to do.

I'll gladly be rooting for Edwin Jackson. I've been defending him for years, so it will be nice for this fan to have a more personal stake in the debate.