Predicting an Unpleasant Trip to the Big House

October 25, 2009 was a beautiful fall day in Ann Arbor. OK, it was drizzly and cold, but that didn't matter as Daryll Clark and the Nittany Lions roared into the Big House at 6-1, ranked 13th in the land and ready to end the second portion of a deeply unpleasant skid. From 1997 through 2007, Penn State and Michigan played nine times. Michigan went 9-0 during that stretch, including four straight one-score victories from 2002-07. 2008 looked like it would be different as the Nittany Lions were scorching at 7-0, hosting a battered 2-4 Michigan team struggling with the transition to Rich Rodriguez's offense. Naturally, Michigan led 17-7 with two minutes left in the first half before Nittany ripped off 39 straight points to complete a 46-17 rout. That was awesome.

But it was also at Beaver Stadium. Winning in Ann Arbor had been an entirely different story. The Big House had become a house of horrors in the 2000s with no loss more painful than the sole blemish on the 2005 docket. Henne to Manningham. Ugh.

Anyway, I was scouting out law schools in the fall of 2009 and late October called for a visit to Ann Arbor. Michigan Law was great, but I'd be lying if I said the focus of the weekend wasn't on Saturday afternoon. Brother Mike and I scored third row seats in the end zone and settled in for a wet affair. As so often happens in Penn State-Michigan contests, the Wolverines easily drove the field to take an early lead and Nittany held only a narrow 10-7 lead late in the second quarter before blowing the game open thanks to a safety on an errant snap followed by a 60-yard touchdown pass. In the end, Clark pieced together one of his finest afternoons, throwing for 230 yards and four touchdowns while Evan Royster chipped in 100 yards on the ground. The defensive highlight was linebacker NaVorro Bowman intercepting reserve Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson. I wonder whatever happened to that guy…

I bring up October 25, 2009 both because it is my favorite in-person Nittany memory and because it is the only time Penn State has won a game in Ann Arbor since 1996, a pitiful 1-8 record over that stretch.

There's also the matter of how James Franklin fares in big games. Simply put, he turtles. He never fails to coach an ultra-conservative game whenever he feels that Nittany is the favorite, something that nearly always occurs far too early in the contest. One manifestation of that: Franklin is 1-12 in his career on the road versus teams that ended the year in the AP top-25, a mark that is difficult to fathom for a coach that has spent the majority of his coaching career at a traditional football factory. The only win came last year against Northwestern. 2018 Michigan is not 2017 Northwestern.

This is the best Penn State team heading to the Big House since that 2009 team (the 2016 team definitely wasn't great in September), but this team is flawed and the flaws are clear:

• The special teams are a nightmare. JR P Blake Gillikin went from All-American candidate to below-average punter. Last week, Gillikin dropped a snap that resulted in a safety while senior long snapper Kyle Vasey sent another snap soaring over his head for, yes, another safety. Freshman kicker Jake Pinegar went 3-for-3 against Iowa last week in a crucial win, but had been a disaster entering that game. Incredibly, the special teams succumbed to impact fake kicks against Michigan State, Indiana, and Iowa in three consecutive weeks. That's mind blowing. DeAndre Thompkins and KJ Hamler have each offered some big plays in the return game; that's something.
• The veteran wide receivers all took a turn for the worse at the same time. Thompkins, Brandon Polk, and especially Juwan Johnson all lost their hands this year and it has stunted the offense. There's no way QB Trace McSorley will have confidence throwing them the ball this week. Instead, his three favorite targets as RS FR Hamler, FR WR Jahan Dotson, and FR TE Pat Freiermuth. It's great to have freshmen contribute; it's bad when the only contributors are freshmen.
• Speaking of McSorley, he's awesome…but he's also hurt. He injured his knee against Iowa in such a way that he cannot move laterally. McSorley without lateral movement is a super smart, OK-armed, undersized RS SR. That's fine. Problem is, Nittany needs McSorley to be All-American caliber. He is when he can run laterally and north-south (ask Ohio State). Instead, he'll be a sitting duck against Michigan.
• Nittany has gotten excellent production from its DEs (RS JR Shareef Miller has been good; SO Yetur Gross-Matos has been stellar), DBs, and Micah Parsons at LB. Cam Brown has also been solid at LB. Unfortunately, RS SR LB Koa Farmer and the DT rotation have disappointed, causing some problems in a front seven that has been gashed at times. RS JR DT Kevin Givens has largely disappointed this year while RS JR DT Robert Windsor has mixed spurts of effectiveness with disappearing acts. And Michigan will positively embarrass RS JR LB Jan Johnson (recently scholarshiped for some reason) whenever he's on the field. He's too slow to cover skill position players anywhere on the field.

Of course, it's not all bad news. What gives me hope?

• Nittany has struggled a lot more with true spread approaches than against power. Michigan is likely to operate primarily out of power sets. Michigan will also likely target receivers in one-on-one matchups with defensive backs, and Penn State RS SR CB Amani Oruwariye has enjoyed a superb year, save for slipping against Felton Davis last month.
• The Penn State offensive line has slowly morphed into the strength that it was expected to be entering the season, particularly the interior trio of LG RS JR Steven Gonzalez, RS SO C Michal Menet, and JR RG Connor McGovern. RS JR LT Ryan Bates has been solid while the rotation at RT with RS SR Chasz Wright and RS SO Will Fries has been adequate. Against Michigan's elite defensive front, an opponent likely needs an elite showing from its offensive line to have a real chance. Nittany has a line capable of delivering such a performance. JR RB Miles Sanders has been excellent (watch his touches against Michigan State), but every back needs at least a little bit of space. Perhaps the O-Line can provide that space on occasion.
• McSorley has won an awful lot of football games in his career, including a handful that nobody expected him to win. Given the losses to the Buckeyes and Spartans, winning in Ann Arbor is his only shot at a crowning achievement in his final season. Whatever intangible goodness is floating around out there gives him a shot, however slight.
•  If James Franklin turtles in big games, Jim Harbaugh goes full-on roly poly sometimes. If he tells Shea Patterson to beat Penn State throwing from the pocket instead of running around and utilizing his athleticism, Harbaugh could help keep things tighter than they might otherwise be.
• I probably undersold the impact of Oruwariye, RS JR CB John Reid, SO CB Tariq Castro-Fields, and RS JR S Garrett Taylor. As a group, they've been stellar while RS SR S Nick Scott has been solid. RS FR CB Donovan Johnson has looked OK at times and overmatched at others, a slightly worse version of Castro-Fields at this point.
• Gross-Matos and Miller both need to have monster games setting the edge and getting into Patterson's face. They're capable of doing that. If they can keep Karan Higdon and Co. inside the tackles and make the game about Parson's ability to tackle Higdon in confided spaces, we could have a real contest on our hands. I have a feeling RS SO DE Shaka Toney will look like Leonard Floyd tomorrow (that is, completely dwarfed and neutralized by opposing OTs), but perhaps RS SO DE Shane Simmons can offer a bit of help now a few weeks removed from his return from injury.

In the end, it's overwhelmingly likely that Michigan has their way methodically moving the ball tomorrow. I fully expect a couple of big plays on special teams – perhaps a successful fake from Michigan, a blocked kick by the Wolverines, a missed/shanked kick by Penn State, a big return from Peoples-Jones – to give Michigan a boost and early enough in the game that they serve to change the tide.

If McSorley was healthy, I'd have some more hopefulness that his legs could introduce enough variance into the game so as to give Nittany a real shot to compete. Without his legs, though, McSorley is a sitting duck with subpar or inexperienced receivers. We'll likely see RS JR QB Tommy Stevens for a few snaps in the first half before he relieves McSorley fully at some point in the second half after McSorley takes too much of a beating standing in the pocket.

One more prediction: Quinn Nordin will definitely rejoice making an easy kick with an over-the-top celebration. I still wish he made it to Penn State.

The game won't be all that exciting for Michigan fans as the Wolverines impose their will early and often with viewers quickly realizing that Nittany lacks the big-play offense that made the team so dangerous in 2016-17.

Michigan 31, Penn State 10

(Rob barfs at some point during the game)

Inside Penn State's Excruciating, Season-Killing Loss to Michigan State

September 23, 2018. It's not that long ago but it sure feels like ages ago.

Way back then, the Cubs had just wrapped up a series win over the White Sox that sent them into the final week of the season with a NL Central Division lead of 2 1/2 games with only a week to go. As a result of their lead and the fall-back plan of the Wild Card Game, the Cubs had a 96.1 percent chance to make it to to the Division Series according to Fangraphs.

The Bears had just completed a furious comeback in the Arizona desert to beat the Cardinals 16-14 at the end of a short week that featured a 1,500-mile flight, propelling the team into first place in the NFC North. Impressive. More importantly, the Bears defense looked dominant in the three games to date as the offense struggled to keep pace.

The Nittany Lions had just dropped 63 points for the second straight week, blasting Illinois on the road to move to 5-0 and a #9 ranking in the AP poll in advance of a showdown with rival Ohio State. The offense was overwhelming, scoring 55.5 points per game through the first four contests. The defense had also settled down after a fourth quarter catastrophe versus Appalachian State to stifle the admittedly modest attacks of Pitt, Kent State, and Illinois.

Things were looking up for me.

My sports life was overflowing with expectations for the first time in...well, actually, maybe for the first time ever. The Canucks and Bulls have been good at the same time before, but (i) I don't care about them as much as my summer/fall teams, and (ii) three is more than two. Having the Cubs, Bears, and Nittany Lions all playing deeply meaningful October games hadn't happened since 2008. 2008 felt a bit different: the Bears' ceiling wasn't quite so high with Kyle Orton manning the helm. The Nits had a wonderful regular season, falling only in the early evening hours at Kinnick (as so often happens) while the Cubs emphatically imploded via a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers.

Still, I found myself full of hope just a few weeks ago.

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Ha. What a chump that guy was.

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Since that glorious week to wrap up September, the Bears enjoyed a laugher over the overwhelmed Bucs. Otherwise, the wheels fell off in explosive ways. The Cubs continued to play fine baseball while the Brewers slayed all challengers, forcing a one-game playoff that Milwaukee won, knocking the Cubs into the Wild Card Game the next night where the season ended at the hands of the Rockies. Over their last three losses, the Cubs surrendered just seven runs. Of course, they scored just one run in each game. One win over those three games would've earned a full-fledged lottery ticket into October's chaos. Instead, the team finally gets a long winter.

Following their dismantling of the Bucs, the Bears made their way to Miami and received an early Christmas present when it was revealed that Ryan Tannehill would miss the game, forcing Brock Osweiler into the lineup. As seven-point favorites with a suffocating defense and an emerging offense, the Bears looked like one of the top bets in the league. Instead, the defense wilted in the Miami heat, allowing Osweiler yet another career day in which he threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns. Despite making two trips inside the five-yard-line in regulation that yielded zero points thanks to a Jordan Howard fumble and an absurd Mitchell Trubisky interception thrown directly to Miami safety T.J. McDonald, the Bears poured in four second-half touchdowns to seemingly seal the game before stumbling again and yielding a trip to overtime. In overtime, Akiem Hicks saved the game by forcing a Kenyan Drake fumble as Drake headed in for the game-winning score. Despite the craziness of the game, Matt Nagy pulled in the reins on the following possession, dialing up five straight rushes to settle for a 53-yard field goal attempt that Cody Parkey pushed to the right. The Dolphins won on a walk-off field goal as time expired.

Despite all of the above, no amount of sports-induced misery from the Cubs and Bears compares to the heartbreak wrought by Penn State football.

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As has been well documented, Penn State football has been on an epic run for just over 24 months. After losing four home games in 2014 -- adding a blowout to Northwestern (29-6) to three rivalry losses (Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan State) -- en route to a 7-6 record, Nittany followed with a more discouraging year in 2015 despite a repeat 7-6 record thanks to another Northwestern loss and blowouts at the hands of Ohio State, Michigan State, and mediocre Temple. 2016 began in much the same way with a tough loss to rival Pittsburgh and a shellacking at the hands of Michigan, 49-10.

There were some signs of hope during that time, namely the taking of eventual National Champion Ohio State to double-overtime in 2014, but nothing fully prepared Nittany Lion fans for what followed: nine straight wins in 2016, including handing the Buckeyes their only regular season loss, a Big Ten title, a thrilling Rose Bowl (loss), an excellent 2017 whose only blemishes were excruciating losses to great teams on the road: at the Horseshoe (39-38) and Spartan Stadium (27-24). Penn State won ever other game handily until a solid if less spectacular win over Washington in the Fiesta Bowl.

Entering 2018, there was reason to believe that another special season was on top. The raucous start to the year described above only fueled that optimism. There was also reason for concern: in close-and-late situations, James Franklin and his staff routinely turtled, reducing the offensive playbook to a run-until-desperate shell of its usual self. Franklin also regularly passed on opportunities to make a game-winning play, instead punting and hoping that the opponent's offense would be unable to break his back.

It happened against USC in 2016: up 49-35 in the fourth quarter, Penn State ran three times, punted, and watched USC score a touchdown. Nittany then ran, called a screen, ran again, and punted. After forcing a Trojans punt, Nittany ran on five straight plays before punting the ball back to USC. USC unsurprisingly tied the game with a minute and a half to play. 10 runs in 11 plays as the lead evaporated. The end result: USC 52, PSU 49.

It happened against Ohio State in 2017: near the end of the first half and facing fourth-and-4 at the OSU 36, Franklin ordered up...a punt? Then, midway through the fourth quarter with a 35-27 lead and facing first and goal at the Ohio State 7, Nittany called for three straight runs to set up a Tyler Davis field goal. After an Ohio State touchdown, Penn State ran three consecutive running plays before punting. When they got the ball back, they found themselves in an obvious passing situation with 1:45 to play. Three incompletions and a sack were all that was left. The end result: OSU 39, PSU 38.

2017 Michigan State was a different story: the teams were more or less evenly matched on a bizarre day in East Lansing that featured a three-hour rain delay in the middle of the game. The loss was devastating but understandable. MSU 27, PSU 24.

Sadly, it happened again against Ohio State in 2018. Near the end of the first half and facing fourth-and-1 at the OSU 49, Franklin ordered up...a punt? Stop me if you've heard this before. Then, up 26-21 halfway through the fourth quarter, Penn State took over and called four straight running plays. After a third down incompletion, Franklin inexplicably elected to punt from the Ohio State 37 despite a fourth-and-5 situation. The end result: OSU 27, PSU 26.

The truth here is painful: entering Saturday, Penn State had held the lead in the last five minutes of each of its prior four losses.

There's no way Franklin and his staff would turtle again in another tight-and-late situation...right?

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Michigan State entered the 2018 version of the MSU-PSU contest with an offense in tatters. Although the strong defense led by DT Raekwon Williams, the Panasiuk brothers (one DE, one DT), DE Kenney Willekes, MLB Joe Bachie, the Dowell brothers (one OLB, one S), S Khari Willis, and CB Justin Layne was largely healthy and ready for the contest in central Pennsylvania (save for CB Josiah Scott), the offense came in missing the following:

1. WR Cody White
2. WR Darrell Stewart
3. RB L.J. Scott
4. G   Kevin Jarvis
5. G   David Beedle
6. WR Jalen Nailor

The Spartans arrived in State College with half of their offense missing before we consider the imperfect health status of LT Cole Chewins and the slew of receivers who left Saturday's contest injured.

In contrast, Penn State was fully healthy. Truly. Among the players expected to participate in the 2018 rotations, only DE Shane Simmons and WR Justin Shorter have struggled with injuries and Simmons returned on Saturday to play meaningful snaps. It's incredible for a team to be so healthy at the season's midpoint.

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So what in the world happened? As is the case with most losses in team sports, it was far from just one thing. In an effort to help human brains digest the information to follow, I'll break the answers into five groups: bad plays, questionable officiating, poor defensive snap allocations, horrendous luck, and, the most important, a repeated lack of aggressiveness in the face of extreme aggressiveness from Mark Dantonio. Here goes:

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Bad Plays

Unsurprisingly in a game with more than 150 plays, Penn State had their fair share of bad ones. A few that stick out:

• With 12:16 left in Q2 and facing third-and-5 from a clean pocket, QB Trace McSorley missed a wide open TE Pat Freiermuth at the sticks, sailing the ball and forcing a punt.
• In the middle of the third quarter, Penn State kicker Jake Pinegar attempts to poke a 37-yard field goal. The ugly kick hits the right upright and narrowly misses.
• On Penn State's go-ahead field goal drive in the fourth quarter, McSorley extended a play and had a wide open DeAndre Thompkins in the end zone about 25 yards away. McSorley sailed the throw deep and to Thompkins's outside shoulder.
• As Nittany attempted to run out the clock, McSorley inexplicably ran out of bounds, preserving Sparty's final timeout and enabling them to work the middle of the field with far greater confidence on the game-winning drive.

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Questionable Officiating

The zebras most certainly didn't determine the outcome of the game on Saturday. Nittany had numerous opportunities to pound the nail into the Sparty coffin, failing to do so each time. However, the officials certainly didn't help the cause.

Michigan State was called for a block in the back on a punt return at the 2:28 mark of Q1. I thought that the referee should've had a conversation with the offending player instead of throwing the flag as the block occurred about 10 yards from the ball carrier as he was tackled. Oh well.

That's the list of Sparty flags from scrimmage. They were also whistled for two false starts.

In contrast, the flags on Nittany were plentiful. A summary with particularly iffy calls underlined:

• At the 6:40 mark of Q1, Nittany corner John Reid was flagged for a block in the back on a punt return. It looked to me as though Reid used his right hand to hit the Spartan gunner in the front of his shoulder, spinning him to the ground. Nevertheless, it was the kind of play that generally looks like a block in the back.
• On the same play, Nittany linebacker Jesse Luketa was called for holding at the line of scrimmage. No replay was available.
• On the final play of the first quarter, Michigan State ran a halfback pass where Connor Heyward beautifully floated a ball to Cam Chambers just shy of the end zone. Chambers caught the ball. However, Nittany corner Tariq Castro-Fields was called for holding on the play. The angle from the end zone shows that Chambers grabbed hold of Castro-Fields in his chest and pushed the corner away with a fully-extended arm just before the ball arrived. The official who called the hold was in the end zone.
• At the 13:28 mark of Q2, Nittany completed an impressive goal line stand, stuffing QB Brian Lewerke on a sneak after stopping La'Darius Jefferson twice (more on that below). Sparty C Matt Allen beat Nittany NT C.J. Thorpe on the play, putting Thorpe on his butt. After the play was over but when both players were still on the ground, Allen stuck his fingers through Thorpe's facemask and into his eyes. As the referee ran in to break up the players, Thorpe retaliated and landed a punch on Allen's face. Flagging the retaliation always happens and Thorpe clearly deserved the penalty. It's tougher to stomach when the official also sees the precipitating infraction and only flags one.
• Penn State G Connor McGovern was flagged for holding at the 12:57 mark of Q2. It was correct.
• Penn State was also called for lining up offside twice and for one false start (both in Q2).
• At the 4:12 mark in Q2, Nittany OLB Cam Brown was called for holding on a third-and-10 play where Lewerke rolled toward the sideline and threw the ball away. On the play, Brown and Sparty RB Weston Bridges were engaged with each other as Lewerke rolled: Brown's hands were wrapped around Bridges while Bridges's hands were wrapped around Brown. Bridges had the back of Brown's jersey in his hands when the flag was thrown.
• At the 7:00 mark of Q3, Nittany DT Robert Windsor was called for holding Allen. While Windsor did grab Allen's jersey as he ran by the center, color commentator James Laurinitis commented that the infraction flagged was for far less grabbing than occurs on every snap of every game. The call took away a third down stop in MSU territory. The Spartans instead tied the game two plays later. (editor's note: this was the toughest call of the game as it was the least egregious hold I've seen called in quite a while)
• At the 0:26 mark of Q3, Nittany RT Will Fries was called for holding on a McSorley rollout.
• On the same play, G Steven Gonzalez was also called for holding.

In the end, the officials flagged Nittany for nine post-snap penalties. Sparty was flagged once. Entering the game, Nittany had been flagged 30 times in five games whereas Sparty had been flagged 36 times in five games.

That's not all. The flags that are thrown impacted the game in a major way. So did a flag that wasn't thrown: on the screen pass opening MSU's game-winning drive, Nittany captain S Nick Scott beat Sparty redshirt freshman WR C.J. Hayes. Rather than let Scott bust up the MSU linemen or tackle Heyward, Hayes shoved Scott down from behind as Heyward was about three yards away. Heyward picked up 11 on the play. If (i) Scott busts up the play and keeps the clock moving, or (ii) the officials flag the block, who knows what happens on that final drive?

Again, the officials didn't determine the outcome of the game. Penn State did that in so many ways. At the same time, the zebras did not help matters by putting their thumbs on the scales.

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Poor Defensive Snap Allocations

We'll get to Franklin's game-losing conservatism in a bit. For now, the snap allocations need a look.

In particular, the coaches played redshirt junior DT Kevin Givens 76 defensive snaps. That's unacceptable. The astronomical count was the result of (i) Fred Hansard's injury, (ii) Antonio Shelton's first-half suspension thanks to a targeting call against Ohio State, and (iii) Thorpe's benching following his unsportsmanlike foul discussed above. Still, the coaches should have (i) given Shelton more second half snaps, and (ii) used the defensive end depth to shift Yetor Gross-Matos inside for a few more plays, keeping Givens a bit fresher. Instead, Givens played all of those defensive snaps, subbed for Thorpe on three special teams units, and found himself completely gassed at game's end when Nittany desperately needed an interior push to make Lewerke uncomfortable.

Scott and Amani Oruwariye both played 80+ snaps, but I'm less worried about leaner athletes carrying such a load. Brown and S Garrett Taylor both at 78 was also high given the presence of Micah Parsons (28) and Castro-Fields (34), but Brown is also on the leaner side for a linebacker and Taylor is a safety. Those were acceptable.

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Horrendous Luck

Lady luck wasn't just unkind to the Nittany Lions on Saturday: she was downright cruel. This entire section would be comical if the Nittany season wasn't crushed as a result. Instead, it's hard to write.

Let's start with one note: not all of the lucky plays in the game went against Penn State. In particular, the Lions enjoyed two lucky outcomes:

• Taylor's third quarter interception was the result of a pass from Lewerke to Chambers (slightly deflected by Koa Farmer) that hit Chambers's club and bounced to Taylor. That ricochet doesn't normally happen (obviously).
• At the 2:24 mark of Q3, Miles Sanders was ruled down but clearly fumbled and was injured on the play, giving the Spartans ample time to watch the replays in order to determine whether they should challenge. Inexplicably, Dantonio didn't talk with the refs or use a timeout. Not luck exactly (more like a rare boneheaded move by the opposing coach) but Nittany was fortunate in that moment.

That's about it from where I sit.

Now for the bad luck. Let's start with the fumbles. There were four genuine fumbles in the game. Lewerke had another wobbly option pitch that was ruled a fumble on the field but was actually an incomplete forward pass. The pitch went out of bounds and only cost Sparty a yard, so this didn't impact the game at all.

The other four though?

• On Nittany's opening drive, the Lions drove well into Sparty territory when McSorley stepped up into the pocket to deliver a downfield pass. Just as he was about to throw, he was hit on the arm, fumbled, and Sparty recovered, quashing the drive. At the time of the fumble, McSorley was surrounded by players from both teams, rendering this something close to a 50/50 ball.
• On the second down play before Thorpe's third down penalty at the goal line, Jefferson fumbled into a big pile of humanity. After about 20 seconds, the ball was awarded back to the Spartans. Who knows who actually had it initially? Regardless, this was a true 50/50 fumble that sent MSU's way.
• At the 4:02 mark of Q2, Sparty punt returner Laress Nelson muffed a punt as Nittany gunners arrived. Instead of bouncing away from him, the ball settled near Nelson's feet where he scooped it up. Muffed punts don't usually end so cleanly.
• At the 0:16 mark of Q3, RB Bridges fumbled on an interior run. The ball squirted back behind him where he dove on it. That's about as safe of fumbles on running plays get, yet it was nevertheless another ball on the turf.

Four fumbles, four recoveries for the Spartans. Ouch.

As tough as that fumble luck proved to be, it paled in comparison to the number of missed opportunities for interceptions. S&P+ credited PSU with an absurd 17 passes defended. In reviewing the video, five of Lewerke's unintercepted passes could've or even should've been picked off. Starting with the least likely pick to the easiest to intercept:

• At the 0:37 mark of Q2, Oruwariye jumped an out route to WR Felton Davis where Lewerke left the ball to the field side. Oruwariye got both hands on the ball but was laid out, rendering an actual catch difficult.
• On a third-and-10 play at 8:24 of Q4, Oruwariye again got a great jump on an out to Davis. He again laid out with the ball passing between his hands, deflected, prior to finding its way to the space between Davis's legs...where he trapped the ball and grabbed it with his hands just before he fell out of bounds for a first down. Stomach punch.
• At the 6:59 mark of Q2, Reid jumped a curl to Brandon Sowards. Lewerke's pass went into Reid's gut, but he couldn't hang on as Sowards made contact. It may have been a pick-six had Reid made the catch.
• At the 3:26 mark of Q4, Lewerke made arguably his worst throw of the game, leaving a seam pass at his own 40 well behind his target and instead throwing it directly to Taylor. Distressingly, the ball bounced off of Taylor's hands and fell incomplete.
• At the 0:58 mark of Q4, Oruwariye yet again jumped a curl to Davis. Lewerke put the ball in Oruwariye's gut but he couldn't hang on as Davis made contact. Obviously it would've sealed the game.

Combining the fumbles and passes defensed, S&P+ estimates that Nittany should've had 5.48 takeaways instead of one.

There are a handful of other brutally unlucky plays that don't fit neatly into a category, so here they are:

• Late in the fourth quarter, a strange play occurred on which Nittany DE Shaka Toney got around the edge and hit Lewerke as he threw. Lewerke released the ball around the 27 and it flew out of bounds around the 25, clearly backward by more than a yard, resulting in a fumble being ruled on the field. However, upon review, it was determined that Lewerke's arm was coming forward when Toney hit it. As a result, even though the ball itself went backward after contact, it was an incomplete pass. Based on the way the referees saw the play, that is the correct interpretation of the rules (I was in no position to appreciate this on Saturday night). However, having watched the play half a dozen times, I'm floored that the call was overturned. I encourage you go to the 142:52 of BTN replay of the game and see if Lewerke's arm is conclusively coming forward before Toney hits it. Having watched it on slow-motion just like the refs do, it looks like Toney hits Lewerke at the back of his windup, causing the ball to move in Lewerke's hand as his arm begins to move forward. At that point, it doesn't matter that Lewerke's arm moved forward in the future: all he did was propel a fumble. This call was crushing for Nittany, costing 10 yards and as many as 20 seconds. Again, I understand that, had the arm been moving forward, it would've been an incomplete pass despite the ball going backward (which is still weird). I just didn't see Lewerke's arm conclusively moving forward before contact from Toney, movement that is required under the rule.
• Facing a fourth-and-4 from MSU's 29 with 8:26 left in Q3, McSorley dropped back to see a chasm of running space in front of him. As he moved to scramble for the first down (and then some), his foot slipped and he fell to the ground. It was Sparty's only sack of the game.
• At the 10:00 mark of Q4 and facing second-and-goal from the MSU 5, Sanders took an inside handoff and saw plenty of green to get into the end zone...before he too slipped and fell at the 2. He would've needed to get through Willis to score, but with Willis between the 1 and the 2, Sanders almost certainly would've at least made the 1, likely leading to a much better chance at a touchdown than the ill-advised fade to Juwan Johnson that followed.
• On Michigan State's brilliant fake punt in the first half, Nittany's sole defender in the middle of the field, disappointing former five-star DB Lamont Wade, read the play reasonably well...before running into the official en route to Heyward, helping spring the back for a big gain. Heyward likely had the first down anyway, but the unfortunate collision likely yielded an extra 15-20 yards.
• On MSU's final drive, Davis and Nelson were injured on consecutive plays. Both injuries served as extra timeouts for the Spartans, though the clock wasn't running after the play on which Davis was shaken up. Davis missed one snap before returning. Nelson's injury saved Sparty's final timeout (which they didn't use). Nelson missed two snaps before returning. Both players appeared to be genuinely shaken up on their respective plays.
• One final unfortunate moment with regard to the clock. Nittany was the "beneficiary" of an unfriendly home clock operator on their penultimate play. When KJ Hamler streaked over the middle, leaped, caught McSorley's pass, and hit the deck, there were eight seconds on the clock. The whistle blew as the clock slipped from eight to seven while Nittany immediately called timeout. Incredibly, the operator ran the clock down to six. Had Nittany had seven seconds and a timeout, they were much more likely to try a 10-15 yard pass on the subsequent play, setting up a much more plausible Hail Mary attempt than the one they were stuck with in the end. They should've tried this anyway, but I suspect that the missing second played a role.

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A Repeated Lack of Aggressiveness in the Face of Extreme Aggressiveness from Dantonio
This section makes my stomach turn. I don't want to write/think/feel this over and over again as has become the norm in recent years.

This game was the perfect encapsulation of Dantonio's approach versus that of Franklin. Dantonio very clearly emptied his quiver of impact plays, throwing everything he could at the Lions in an effort to stave off a 3-3 record heading back home to face the vaunted Wolverines. A fake punt. A halfback pass. A fake field goal. Dantonio was hyper-aggressive. Dantonio knew that Sparty was the underdog, so he coached like it.

There were many impacts of this aggressiveness. First and foremost, he stole a possession with the fake punt, one that ultimately lead to Sparty's only score of the opening half. It's also possible that this aggressiveness put Nittany somewhat on their heels, helping fuel a handful of third down conversions where MSU converted by only a yard or so. This helped yield a massive advantage in snaps (89 to 64). It's also possible that Spartans LT Cole Chewins had just enough juice to dive and nip Taylor's heels on his interception return, preventing what could have been a commanding two-touchdown Nittany lead. Who knows?

In painful contrast, Franklin and offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne turtled, as they have on the occasions mentioned above. The ultra-conservative play calling ensured that Sparty would have another chance to tie or win the game at the end. Dantonio explicitly stated as much in his postgame presser, confirming that he was overwhelmingly confident that Penn State would sit on the ball. Penn State's offensive line is very good, but so is MSU's defensive line. Running in the interior is tough sledding. One well-placed pass would've ended the game. Instead, expected conservatism has killed the season for another hyper-efficient Nittany squad.

Did going for it on fourth-and-3 at the MSU 47 with 8:20 left in Q2 even cross Franklin's mind? Did he think about going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 2 in the fourth quarter? Did Franklin even remember about the ability to use Tommy Stevens in different formations to give the Spartans a different look? I doubt it. (To his credit, Franklin owned this by claiming that the extent of his patience with the run game was a mistake and likely took away opportunities for chunk plays.)

--------------------------------------------

Ranking the issues above, I'd say that they impacted the game in the following order from most impactful to least:

1. Horrendous Luck
2. A Repeated Lack of Aggressiveness in the Face of Extreme Aggressiveness from Dantonio
3. Bad Plays
4. Questionable Officiating
5. Poor Defensive Snap Allocations

--------------------------------------------

Closing Thoughts
The Michigan State game wasn't a total loss. Gross-Matos was superb, making a few TFLs of his own and clearing the way for Windsor's late sack by fighting through a double team. Sanders played his best game in blue and white. Taylor emerged. DE Shareef Miller and Brown both acquitted themselves well.

Michigan State didn't just win because of what Nittany did or didn't do. They also got superb production from their excellent defensive line, Lewerke made some plays, and Davis proved to be a superhero yet again.

Saturday's loss is far and away the worst since the Beat Down at Big House in September 2016. Nittany's losses since then (2016 USC, 2017 OSU, 2017 MSU, and 2018 OSU) all came on the road, save for OSU, and all came against excellent teams. 2018 Sparty is not an excellent team, at least not at this point in the season. They're a mess of a team with an injury report that is basically a "who's who" of their roster. They have a QB, a WR, a great defensive line, a solid back seven, and an elite coach. On pure talent, Nittany had a massive advantage, hence the -14.5 spread.

Instead of making that count, Nittany did the worst thing possible: they failed to learn from their mistakes. JFF went conservative and lost yet again, ending the possibility of achieving the program's top goals yet again. The Big Ten is fully out of reach. The CFP dream is dead. A NY6 game is on life support and now requires wins over Iowa, @ Michigan, and Wisconsin.

It didn't have to be this way.

JFF deserves a tremendous amount of credit for what he has done with the PSU program. He inherited a program still licking its wounds from crippling NCAA sanctions -- despite the excellent efforts of Bill O'Brien on Saturdays in sustaining the program through its self-inflicted darkest days -- and a cupboard that was comically bare. The 2010 class was excellent, ranked 13th nationally, but half of the impact players jumped ship when the sanctions came down instead of forming the veteran core of the 2014 and 2015 squads. Paterno's final recruiting class of 2011 ranked 31st. Of the 2012 recruiting class, which ranked 47th nationally, no four-star recruit made it through his career at PSU: WR Geno Lewis transferred to Oklahoma, DT Jamil Pollard never made it to campus, and DE Brent Wilkerson converted to TE and then was kicked off of the team for assaulting an acquaintance, then registered as a sex offender. Yikes. The 2013 class ranked 33rd. The 2014 fusion class between O'Brien and Franklin ranked 24th, but it did include a slew of key contributors to the successful PSU teams to follow.

The fully-Franklin classes have all been superb: 14th in 2015, 20th in 2016, 15th in 2017, and 6th in 2018. The 2019 class currently ranks 13th and will likely end up somewhere in the mid-to-late-teens when it wraps up, but even this is misleading: the class will be a bit smaller, so ranking so highly without quantity means that the quality of the prospects is fantastic.

Recruiting is good but it's far from the be-all-and-end-all in the college football world. Unlike with Ron Zook, Brady Hoke, and the like, recruiting success has been converted to wins for Franklin. JFF meandered through a couple of mediocre years while he got his players and his system in place, then he exploded onto the national scene in October 2016. Since then, Nittany has either won or come extraordinarily close to winning every game. Five losses by 12 total points, all of them in the last 2:03, and three of them in the final 20 seconds. That's quite the impressive 29-game stretch.

He has generally acquitted himself well against top competition from 2016 onward: after getting obliterated by 2016 Michigan in a game where Nittany lacked scholarship linebackers, they beat 2016 OSU, 2016 Wisconsin, and 2017 Washington, and lost narrowly to 2016 USC, 2017 OSU, 2017 MSU, and OSU 2018. There's one gnarly loss in there now: 2018 MSU. Outside of this Saturday, there are also exclusively wins against good-but-not-great teams like 2016 Minnesota, 2016 Iowa,  2017 Iowa (@ Kinnick @ night), 2017 Northwestern, 2017 Michigan, and 2018 Appalachian State. If we go back the beginning of 2016 before the meltdown at Michigan in 2016, the win over 2016 Temple looks awfully nice, too, while the loss at Pitt looks fine considering Pitt's subsequent win @ Clemson, the only blemish for the Tigers in the championship season.

Franklin has done a great job establishing Penn State as a contending program annually. That should never be taken for granted. However, in order to take the next step, he's going to have to change his approach in the biggest games. Aggressiveness will be required to mitigate the impact of bad luck against the best teams. Franklin should start doing that now so as to avoid future losses in the mold of Saturday's crushing setback.

Improving 2018 While Stunting the Future: the Khalil Mack Trade

There's no way to sugarcoat the magnitude of the Khalil Mack trade: it's easily the Bears' biggest transaction since Jerry Angelo shipped out two 1st-round picks and a 3rd-rounder to the Broncos in exchange for Jay Cutler and a 5th-round choice.

While the exact specifications of the conditions of the late 2020 pick coming to the Bears are unknown right now, the basic deal is as follows:

Raiders Get
2019 1st-round pick
2020 1st-round pick
2020 3rd-round pick
2019 6th-round pick

Bears Get
OLB Khalil Mack
2020 2nd-round pick
2020 6th-round pick (conditionally could become a 5th-round pick)

There are so many issues in play here and thoughts that accompany them. Here's a run through a number of them:

1. The 2018 Bears just got way more interesting.
A couple of weeks ago, I picked the Bears to go 6-10 this year with the following comment: "the Bears are mostly talented, but the abject lack of a pass rush dooms them." Well now, about that second clause.

The 3-4 defense only works with constant pressure off of the edge collapsing the pocket. The Bears just went from having a job share between Sam Acho and Aaron Lynch to playing arguably the best pass rusher in the league on the edge.

Prior to the trade, the Bears were overloaded at inside linebacker (Roquan Smith, Danny Trevathan, and Nick Kwiatkoski), combined a star lineman (Akiem Hicks) with a plus interior starter (Eddie Goldman), featured a pair of stud starting safeties (Adrian Amos, Eddie Jackson), and has a couple of in-prime corners on the outside (Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukamara) with 1st-round pedigrees.

Add it all up and there should be nine plus starting positions on the defense. That's the foundation of a special season. The two remaining spots -- defensive end and the other outside linebacker spot -- also feature plenty of promise. At OLB, 2016 9th overall pick Leonard Floyd is due for a breakout after flashing in prior years but struggling with injuries. Lynch, Acho, and rookie Kylie Fitts now fit much better into their roles having been knocked down a peg. At DE, projected starter Jonathan Bullard played well in a job share last year and promising former undrafted rookie Roy Robertson-Harris should get a decent run, too.

Depth figures to be strong in the front seven (while it's weak at DT, Hicks' ability to slide inside elevates the floor), but the secondary depth is a concern. Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson have underwhelmed at safety while the cornerback depth is a bright flashing red light: Marcus Cooper is awful, Bryce Callahan is limited to slot duties, Sherrick McManis is a special teamer, and Kevin Toliver is an undrafted rookie. Gulp.

Still, it's tough not to be giddy about the toys that Vic Fangio now has at his disposal, headlined by the ultra-elite Mack.

The offense figures to lag behind the defense all year as sophomore QB Mitch Trubisky adjusts to his entirely new receiving options. More alarming, the offensive line figures to be a concern with below-average starting tackles and poor depth behind them. Nevertheless, there's enough there on offense to offer excitement.

Given Mack's addition, are the 2018 Bears a serious playoff contender? Ryan Pace absolutely must believe so, regardless of what he says in public. There's no sense in making this move unless he believes that a Y1 playoff berth is in the cards. I certainly do see it as a given, but it's a much more realistic possibility today than it was a few days ago. That's nifty. I'm much more excited as a result.

2. The financial outlay for Mack was massive but expected.
$141 million is a ton of money. No way to minimize that. Functionally, Mack is locked in through 2021. He can be cut before the 2022 season with $6.8 million of dead cap space left behind. Obviously if that happens, it'll be a nightmare for the Bears.

There's not much to say about the contract except this: Mack is now the highest paid defensive player in league history, surpassing Aaron Donald a day after he reached such lofty status. Mack deserves to be exceptionally highly paid. Moving on.

3. It will be extremely difficult for Mack to outperform his contract.
The Bears traded for Mack to be an impact, star-level force on the edge, not to be a value proposition financially. That's sensible.

But when evaluating the team, it's important to sign players to contracts where their value exceeds their allotment of cap space. For Mack, by setting a new top of the market, he'll need to play at MVP levels for three or four years to provide such value individually. It's just implausible.

This trade will be evaluated based on wins and losses in the coming years. But it should also be evaluated by paying attention to the individual value of Mack himself.

4. The draft compensation surrendered by Pace is unparalleled in league history and will likely cripple the franchise into the coming decade.
There's no way to soften the blow here: beginning with the Anthony Miller trade and following with the Mack deal to a much greater degree, Pace has shown a penchant for falling in love with a particular player. This is a very risky mode of operation for one obvious reason: players don't win games/championships, teams do. Teams are comprised of lots of players, upwards of 30 of which play meaningful snaps each game. Games are generally best equipped to win games when most/all of those 30 players are good. The easiest way to accomplish this, by far, is by having a whole bunch of underpaid players complemented by a handful of market-cost players. It's really the only way to survive in a capped salary situation.

Unfortunately for the Bears, as a result of the Miller and Mack deals, the Bears won't be able to build meaningful depth into the next decade unless they hit on a number of mid-to-late round picks. That's a poor strategy for team building.

Looking at the Mack deal alone, we can wipe out the value of the late-round picks: they're likely both 6th-rounders and I don't subscribe to the notion of value discounting of picks: the 2022 Bears are just as important as the 2019 Bears to me, even if they aren't to Ryan Pace. In essence, we're looking at two 1st-round picks and a 3rd-round pick for a 2nd-round pick and an All-Pro. We've already discussed the implausibility of Mack providing surplus value on his new contract, so let's evaluate the draft capital assigned to him in this deal.

First, a disclaimer: yes, there's an ultra-rosy universe out there in which the Bears win the Super Bowl while the Raiders collapse pre-Vegas, pushing the Raiders to the top of draft rounds and the Bears to the bottom. If the picks end up as #24, #32, and #96 heading to the Raiders in exchange for #33, it looks great. That's both (i) overwhelmingly unlikely to happen, and (ii) the wrong way to evaluate a trade where the picks involved are unknown. The best example here is the Texans, who figured that they were trading a late-1st in 2018 for DeShaun Watson as a team loaded with star power but with a crippling hole at quarterback.

Football season arrived, both JJ Watt and Watson suffered significant injuries, and Houston conveyed #25 and #4 for #12. Ouch.

While the odds of that scenario were low, they weren't infinitesimal. Star players get hurt all the time, torpedoing seasons. Had only one of Watt and Watson gotten hurt, Houston likely would've instead dealt #25 and #15 for #12, a terrible value proposition.

With that said, the Bears figure to make the jump from bottom-of-the-barrel to middle class in 2018 given Mack's acquisition. If they reach .500 for the first time since 2013, they'll likely pick around #16. In 2020, the hope is that they kick things up a notch and reach the playoffs, landing the pick somewhere in the low-20s. Let's say #22. That makes their 3rd-round pick #86. Oakland is less clear, so let's plop their 2020 odds at a bit less than average, making their 2nd-round pick #45.

Using the Chase Stuart chart, the Bears traded away 38.0 draft value points (16.9 + 14.9 + 6.2) to acquire 10.4 points. That 27.6 surplus points represents the value surrendered to give Mack the richest, and most cap-absorptive, deal for a defensive player in history.

27.6 points is exactly the value of the #3 overall pick in the draft. Yowzers. As a median estimate, that's a terrifying proposition. If a key Bears player gets hurt and the team struggles during the next two years, the team will surrender well in excess of the top overall pick. Then again, if Mack catalyzes a jump to constant contention, the value slides closer to the middle of the first round. Even with the economics, just about every team in the league would've traded a mid-1st-round pick for Mack.

This will define Pace's tenure as GM as much as the Trubisky trade-and-draft.

5. The combination of the cap space and draft capital used to acquire and keep Mack is such that the Bears will have a very hard time progressing as an organization.
Any success moving forward is predicated on (i) Mack remaining an All-Pro caliber cornerstone, and (ii) Trubisky exploding into a plus starter. With the opportunity to add impact talent via the draft, the Bears possessed other viable pathways to contention in the event that Trubisky struggled or even flopped. That's no longer the case. Now it is truly Trubisky or bust.

Even if Trubisky makes a star turn, the Bears are going to find it extraordinarily difficult to surround him with impact weapons in the coming years. Draft picks -- and particularly high draft picks -- offer unparalleled value when building a team as they tend to be players who well outperform their contracts. Successful teams need those. The Bears are now left hoping against all hope that Pace's 2016 and 2017 draft classes were unequivocal grand slams. We'll see.

6. It's so hard to get your hands on a player like Khalil Mack.
I appreciate the rarity of the moment. The last time a pass rusher of this ilk hit the market, DeMarcus Ware bolted to Denver and had a ring on his finger 22 months later. Mack is decidedly better than Ware was then. For that reason alone, I appreciate the unique nature of such a monumental talent shifting teams.

The last time a trade of something close to this magnitude materialized, Jared Allen was heading northward out of Kansas City for Minneapolis, where he terrorized the Bears and the NFC North for a football generation (and stopped getting behind the wheel while drunk).

7. One unintended consequence of the trade: the focus is squarely off of Smith now.
Missing all of training camp surely didn't endear Smith to his teammates and it similarly gave him little room for error with the fans and coaches: if he got off to a rough start in his rookie season, the boo birds would be plentiful. It's unknown how that affects a young player, but the odds are strong that it doesn't help.

Instead, the overwhelming focus on the Bears is squarely on Mack now. Smith can more or less ease into his professional career with a significantly dimmer spotlight shining on him. Hopefully that helps.

8. There's an exceptionally good chance that Mack plays himself into the Hall of Fame.
It should always be mentioned when a transaction involves a player with a real shot at the HOF. Mack is a unicorn.

9. Superstar athletes tend to age much better than their more average counterparts.
This is not a controversial take.

However, elite pass rushing 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers age much better than most. (*sample size warning*) Two recent Bears pass rushers offer specific hope.

Julius Peppers came to the Bears for his age-30 season, providing star level production for three years before a fourth above-average season preceded his departure. Productivity through age-33 was great. (Peppers has since provided average defense for four additional years, an even more impressive feat.)

Similarly, Jared Allen offered elite production into his 30s, starring still as a 31-year-old for the Vikings in 2013. The wheels largely fell off once he joined the Bears at 32, but that doesn't negate his prior production.

The Bears are locked into Mack for four years with the fifth year operating as something of a team option: the Bears owe Mack $24.55M in 2022 against $6.8M of dead cap money. There is no dead money in subsequent years as of now, though it is highly likely that some of Mack's base salaries in the coming years are restructured into bonuses for cap spreading purposes that allocate money to the cap in 2023 and beyond. Regardless, the first four years of Mack's deal cover ages 27 through 30, suggesting that the Bears really do stand to buy some excellent (if not prime) years.

10. Mack adds as much value as any one non-quarterback player could to the 2018 Bears.
As I said above, the glaring weakness for this year's squad defensively was at rush linebacker. Without Mack, the 6-10 season would be a frustrating outcome for a team with all of the other pieces in place.

Now, with Mack in tow, 2018 looks much more like a springboard. The defense is certainly playoff-caliber while the offense has the tools to get there if everything comes together. That's not altogether likely, however, so a .500 record against a subpar schedule seems prudent. Let's put the Bears at 8-8 now instead of 6-10.

Let's also call out the obvious: if Trubisky makes a sophomore leap, the sky is now the limit for these Bears. That was an unfathomable statement last week.

Rethinking 2018 Nittany: Musings on the Appalachian State Thriller

I was as excited for this Nittany season, perhaps more so than any other season in recent memory. 2009 is the closest second of which I can think.

Week 1 against Appalachian State certainly offered more excitement than most expected, myself included. It also expose numerous issues with the team, as well as some surprising signs for optimism.

There's no sense in pretending that these thoughts are well organized, so let's just get right into them.

1. Seasons don't die with wins.
Obviously preseason polls don't mean diddly squat. Nevertheless, Penn State opening the season ranked 10th indicated that many folks outside of the program expect continued success in 2018.

Many of the season's goals -- make the CFP, undefeated year, elite ranking in the final polls, etc. -- would've died with a home loss to Appalachian State. The conference goals would've remained, but so many goals would've been dashed that it would've been tough to have a successful year.

On the other hand, seasons simply don't die with wins. Even underwhelming home wins against Group of 5 teams. Even against programs that recently ascended to FBS. Wins are exponentially more palatable than losses, as they should be.

Everybody remembers Clemson's remarkable, truly last second win against Alabama to win the 2016 National Championship. Fewer folks recall that Clemson need 17 4th quarter points against Troy on their home opener to secure a six-point win. The Tigers slipped three spots in the polls after that game, just like Penn State just did, but the season turned out just fine.

I'm not saying that 2018 Penn State is 2016 Clemson. I'm simply hammering the idea that wins never kill seasons. Losses do.

2. I expected Appalachian State to be solid, but they were substantially more impressive than expected.
Everybody remembers the 2007 trip that the Mountaineers took to the Big House, shocking the then 5th-ranked Wolverines. Since that FCS Championship season, the Mountaineers enjoyed solid seasons but hardly impactful ones before making the FBS in the Sun Belt Conference in 2014. After their solid 7-5 (6-2) debut season, they ripped off a three-year stretch of 30-9 (21-3) from 2015-17. They're not just an also-ran program in the North Carolina mountains. They're a strong Group of 5 program.

Prior to the season, I picked a 31-20 Penn State victory, closer than my expected margins of victory over Kent State, @ Indiana, and @ Rutgers. After having made those picks, I discovered that S&P+ pegged the Mountaineers as the 59th best team in the country, immediately ahead of Power 5 trio Kansas State, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech. Had Penn State needed a thriller to get by Scott Frost's Cornhuskers or Bill Snyder's Wildcats, there would be far less consternation.

It's still possible that Appalachian State is mediocre and Penn State is wildly overrated. However, there's a similarly plausible storyline where Zac Thomas dropped dimes all over the field at Beaver Stadium because he's a pretty darn good quarterback, not because Penn State's defense stinks.

3. The 4th-quarter onside kick was easily the most embarrassing play for the Nittany Lions.
I said, audibly, to my television screen that the front line needed to be prepared for the possibility of an onside kick after App. State drew the score to 31-24 in the 4th. It was a classic underdog onside kick situation and Penn State presented a formation that made it far too compelling to attempt. The front line really blew it there, but it's tough not to put that on the coaching staff. Coaches have to have a feel for that type of game situation.

4. Trace McSorley, rather quietly, had yet another superstar performance.
McSorley's day was largely overshadowed by focus on new Nittany starters and the raucous App. State 4th quarter. That makes sense. However, McSorley oh so quietly threw for 229 yards and a game-tying touchdown in the final minute without a turnover, adding 53 yards on 12 carries with two additional scores. He has made the excellent routine. He also wasn't helped by an uncharacteristically underwhelming performance from Juwan Johnson.

Two plays stick out more than the rest. McSorley's game (season?) saving first down on 4th and 2 with just over a minute left was the result of calm, superb actions in the face of a crushing upset. He hit Brandon Polk on a hot route, beating Appalachian State's 8-man zone before it had a chance to shut down his throwing lanes. And then, three plays later, McSorley stared down a ferocious pass rush to stand in the pocket and deliver a game-tying score on a beautiful throw to KJ Hamler.

However, it's not just those plays that make McSorley special. It's also his ability to, with incredible consistency, properly read the opposing pass rush, either delivering a quick hit or slipping through a hole to turn many plays into run-pass options (RPOs).

Those play will carry the Nittany Lions far this fall. Having watched a number of games this weekend, I didn't see another quarterback show such tremendous grasp of the situation on nearly every down. That, more than anything else, is Penn State's primary advantage.

5. The concerns at linebacker only got worse in the opener.
My biggest concern: Jan Johnson would look like a walk-on athletically, regardless of his fifth-year senior status. That's precisely what happened as Johnson played 47 snaps, 10 fewer than Koa Farmer and 20 fewer than Cam Brown. Johnson doesn't look like he'll survive the year as the starter.

Two freshmen got decent run as Micah Parsons scored 21 snaps while redshirt freshman Ellis Brooks got 15. I didn't much notice Brooks -- which may be a good thing given how Johnson stood out for the wrong reasons -- but I sure did notice Parsons. The same issues that showed up on his high school tape reared their head. Parsons is an athletic freak. He does a great job using this athleticism to shed blocks. What he does not do, however, is use his athleticism to hit. Parsons routinely got in solid position to make a play but appeared to pull up, either because he was tired by the pace of the college game (unlikely given his snap count) or because of a predisposition to avoid laying out opposing players (very likely given the prevalence of this in his prep tape). It's easy enough for a collegiate strength and conditioning program to help a player add muscle and weight over a couple of years. I'm not sure if you can reorient a player's hard wiring to play more viciously, but Penn State will likely need to do so with Parsons in order to help him become the impact player that the defense so desperately needs.

6. P.J. Mustipher made the most of his 11 snaps.
A true freshman, Mustipher finds himself in the enviable spot of having a Big Ten-ready body in a position group with some snaps to distribute. He got only 11 on defense, but he made his presence known. He seems like the kind of player who will benefit most from the new redshirting rule: he could very well play 70+ snaps over four games while maintaining his redshirt season. The depth chart at defensive tackle doesn't appear particularly set, but Mustipher had four names ahead of him against Appalachian State in Robert Windsor (52 snaps), Ellison Jordan (31), Fred Hansard (27), and Antonio Shelton (24), and that's before returning starter redshirt junior Kevin Givens returns from his one-game suspension. Still, the lack of obvious plus starters and reserves gives Mustipher an opening to play his way into more important snaps.

7. Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan fans need to take some deep breaths.
The first two teams on this last failed to cover 20+ point spreads in majestic fashion, needing late touchdowns and stops to hold off Group of 5 foes at home. Nobody ever wants that.

Thankfully, I watched the vast majority of both games and after a few days of deep breathing myself, I'm reasonably confident that both State schools still have strong seasons ahead of them. The reasons that they were expected to be great this year -- important, veteran talent and coaching staffs with a penchant for winning -- remain. It's not exactly rare for teams to struggle in September and look completely different and substantially improved by November. I won't be surprised if that happens with either of the States.

Of course, there's the pesky matter of this week's games for both squads. Both teams travel to hostile environments, though the reasons for the hostility are monumentally different. Michigan State gets the brutal experience of playing in 100 degree desert heat against Arizona State in a game that will kick off at 10:45pm Eastern. Penn State travels a much shorter distance but they do so to play rival Pitt, also at night and on national television. If Pat Narduzzi wants to announce the arrival of his program, Saturday night will be his best opportunity.

Like most, I expect reasonably close games. Unlike most, I expect the Big Ten teams to emerge victorious for the simple reason that they are better than their opponents and the outside factors don't make up enough of the talent gap to fuel the upsets. We'll see if the fan bases and media overreacted to some Week 1 scares or if I underreacted to them.

There is one unfortunate hiccup in the "we'll be better later in the season" plan for Penn State: Ohio State had no such struggles in Week 1 against an admittedly poor Oregon State team. The Buckeyes visit Beaver Stadium in three weeks. Gulp.

2018 NFL Predictions

Last year, my picks were...not good. So let's try it again!

NFC West
San Francisco (10-6) - Loaded defensive front + Jimmy G. That's plenty.
Los Angeles Rams (10-6) - Can they repeat their 2017 success? Yup. D is still insanely talented.
Seattle (6-10) - The defensive attrition over the years finally catches up to them.
Arizona (3-13) - They've bled plenty of talent and aged, then they intentionally signed Sam Bradford.

NFC South
Carolina (11-5) - I remain a big believer in Cam and see a strong defense under Ron Rivera.
Atlanta (9-7) - They're really talented, but that Super Bowl collapse will break them.
New Orleans (8-8) - Brees and a solid D give them a high floor. I don't see the ceiling.
Tampa Bay (5-11) - Things are getting ugly in Tampa. They may have to rebuild again.

NFC East
Philadelphia (13-3) - Alshon. All Alshon. And lots of other great players, too.
New York Giants (8-8) - Saquon is amazing. The rest of the roster is ho-hum.
Dallas (6-10) - There's talent on this roster, but the receivers stink and the O-Line is already hurt.
Washington (4-12) - They definitely got worse and possibly a whole lot worse.

NFC North
Green Bay (13-3) - They're due for a monster year and Rodgers is healthy.
Minnesota (10-6) - The Vikings are crazy talented. They'll survive the expectations.
Chicago (6-10) - The Bears are mostly talented, but the abject lack of pass rush dooms them.
Detroit (6-10) - This roster just doesn't do anything for me, save for Matt Stafford.

AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) - The defensive is even better now. Plenty of skill power on offense.
Denver (8-8) - The Von Miller-Bradley Chubb combo gives them a very high floor.
Oakland (7-9) - Plenty of talent to win big. I'm not a Gruden believer in 2018 though.
Kansas City (6-10) - I don't buy Patrick Mahomes.

AFC South
Tennessee (10-6) - They're ready for a real leap, one I thought they'd take last year.
Jacksonville (10-6) - There's sooo much defensive talent. But Bortles-Moncrief? WTF?
Houston (9-7) - Watt+Clowney+Watson. They're gonna be seriously fun.
Indianapolis (4-12) - Even if Luck is healthy, they're just not good.

AFC East
New England (13-3) - The Pats might not be as great as usual, but the East stinks.
Miami (7-9) - This is probably their peak for this iteration of the team.
New York Jets (6-10) - They'll be better but also breaking in a rookie QB.
Buffalo (5-11) - They had a QB last year, then they punted him. Huh?

AFC North
Pittsburgh (11-5) - Despite a tough schedule, this is a very talented team.
Cleveland (9-7) - Seriously. Their defensive is stellar and now they're loaded with QB talent.
Baltimore (8-8) - Still not enough skill talent, but there's enough here for a solid year.
Cincinnati (4-12) - Finally, it's Marvin's last year.

NFC Playoff Tree
#5 Minnesota over #4 San Francisco
#6 Los Angeles Rams over #3 Carolina

#1 Green Bay over #6 Los Angeles Rams
#2 Philadelphia over #5 Minnesota

#1 Green Bay over #2 Philadelphia

AFC Playoff Tree
#4 Tennessee over #5 Jacksonville
#3 Pittsburgh over #6 Cleveland

#1 New England over #4 Tennessee
#3 Pittsburgh over #2 Los Angeles Chargers

#1 New England over #3 Pittsburgh

Super Bowl
#1 New England over #1 Green Bay

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Some bonus notes on the Bears in lieu of a full, separate piece:

• I'm genuinely excited for this year's team. That was tougher to come by during the John Fox era.
• The offensive skill talent is real and exciting. I'm most excited to see Allen Robinson in a Bears uniform after watching him at OLSM, Penn State, and with the Jaguars.
• The offensive line can be above-average is everyone stays healthy and James Daniels impresses from Day One. Unfortunately, the tackles are shaky and the depth is non-existent. This will likely be a problem this year.
• I love the top four on the defensive line with starting nose Eddie Goldman and three primary ends Akiem Hicks, Jonathan Bullard, and Roy Robertson-Harris. I like the Bilal Nichols pick. But if Hicks goes down, the Bears are screwed, in large part because...
• The outside linebackers are going to be bad and might be horrendous. An injury-prone, wildly undersized Leonard Floyd. An injury-prone, underwhelming Aaron Lynch. Journeyman Sam Acho. Perhaps injury-prone sixth-rounder Kylie Fitts or subpar roster fodder players Isaiah Irving or Kasim Edebali fills out the roster. It doesn't really matter. The Broncos rode the fearsome combination of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware to the Super Bowl. They wisely added Bradley Chubb in the draft this year. They appreciate that the 3-4 only works with dominant OLB production. The Bears are going to have terrible OLB production. Comfortable quarterbacks tend to succeed a whole lot.
• I cannot believe that Marcus Cooper is on the NFL. It's idiotic that he's back on the Bears.
• The safety group, led by Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson with Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson backing them up, might be the best looking Bears safety position group in decades.
• The lack of valuable draft picks as a result of the Trubisky trade is particularly obvious when examining the missing depth on the offensive line, at outside linebacker, and at defensive end.
• The Bears desperately need a huge breakout from a recent late draftee or undrafted youngster like Jordan Morgan, Fitts, or Kevin Toliver.

Picking the 2018 Penn State Football Season (and the rest of the Big Ten, too)

Boy, it sure has been an enjoyable couple of years following Nittany football. It's no secret that while I respected JFF's abilities as a recruiter, I've long been unimpressed with his gameday coaching abilities.

That position is largely untenable at this point.

Following a couple of shaky 7-6 seasons to open his career in State College, Franklin's teams have compiled back-to-back 11-win seasons, going 22-5 over that time. Unfortunately for me, I'm 0-2 during that span. Oh well.

In reality, the program's turnaround has been even more stark. September 2016 was a disaster with a close loss at Pitt and the blowout at the Big House. JFF looked dead in the water. Since then, the team is 22-3 with a Big Ten Title, a Fiesta Bowl win, and a slew of memorable wins (although it's worth mentioning that all three losses have been excruciating: 52-49 @ USC, 39-38 @ Ohio State, and 27-24 @ Michigan State).

So where will 2018 fit into this narrative?

First, it's essential to look at the 2017 roster and see which contributors have moved on. Surprisingly, despite the amount of 2017 Nittany talent that will don NFL threads this fall (more on that in a moment), the most painful loss will likely be that of MLB Jason Cabinda. Cabinda enjoyed a splendid career running the Nittany defense. Replacing him will be...somebody. The leading contenders three weeks from the opener are walk-on senior Jan Johnson, recently-reinstated senior outside linebacker Manny Bowen, and redshirt freshmen Jesse Luketa and Ellis Brooks. Star recruit Micah Parsons even got some run in the inside this spring before bumping to outside linebacker, a more natural fit unless he ultimately transitions backs to the defensive line. Gulp. This will be a major storyline for the team this season.

Second, about that NFL talent. It's remarkable really. The draftees:

• RB Saquon Barkley (#2)
• TE Mike Gesicki (#42)
• S   Troy Apke (#109)
• WR DaeSean Hamilton (#113)
• S   Marcus Allen (#148)
• CB Christian Campbell (#182)

That's a fantastic amount of talent. Numerous other graduates signed deals as undrafted rookies as well.

It may seem bizarre to be more concerned about replacing Cabinda than Barkley, Gesicki, or basically the entire secondary. But hear me out as I go through the roster by position group.

Quarterback

This group is nearly perfect. Trace McSorley will show up on a bunch of preseason All-American lists. Tommy Stevens, who doubles as the backup quarterback and the "Lion" for the offense, is ready for a starting gig. The coaching staff had to fend off a number of transfer possibilities for Stevens in the offseason. That's a good thing. The #3 quarterback, Sean Clifford, enters his redshirt freshman season after having arrived as the #8 pro-style quarterback in his recruiting class.

On paper, when healthy, and before the season starts (plus whatever other caveats you want to apply), this group looks perfect.

Running Back

Look, there's no replacing Saquon. He's a generational talent, a superb leader, and a remarkably versatile weapon.

When having to replace a player of Barkley's caliber, basically the perfect solution would be to have (i) the #1 running back in his class with two years of collegiate experience under his belt (Miles Sanders), and (ii) the #1 running back in the current recruiting cycle (Ricky Slade). Perfect. This group is dripping with talent even without Barkley.

Tight End

Gesicki is an awfully rare talent with his 6-foot-6 frame and elite leaping ability. The offense will truly miss his skillset.

However, the program has a trio of experienced, block-first options to fill the void in redshirt sophomore Danny Dalton and redshirt juniors Nick Bowers and Jonathan Holland. To make matters more interesting, Nittany brought in two top-ten tight ends among the 2018 recruiting class in Zack Kuntz and Pat Freiermuth to push the veterans. There are a lot of qualified bodies, even if the role of the tight end will look a lot different this year.

Wide Receiver

This group is really interesting. Gone are a trio of key contributors: all-time reception king and slot fade ace DaeSean Hamilton, rangy Saeed Blacknall, and special teams star Irv Charles. In reality, Hamilton will be deeply missed on offense. However, Blacknall got in his own way with off-the-field issues after his breakout performance in the Big Ten Championship Game at the end of his junior season and Charles never established himself on the offensive side of the ball.

The top-two receivers coming back -- JuWan Johnson and DeAndre Thompkins -- are quite the formidable 1-2 punch. Johnson will have the chance to play his way into a lofty draft status. Sliding into the space vacated by Hamilton and Blacknall will be McSorley's high school teammate, Brandon Polk, and a bevy of freshmen, both redshirt and true. In the redshirt group, the diminutive KJ Hamler has made a lot of noise, Mac Hippenhammer had a huge spring game, and Cam Sullivan-Brown figures to earn some snaps. But the true freshman come much more highly regarded: Jahann Dotson and Daniel George will both likely redshirt themselves while #1 receiver and #8 overall recruit Justin Shorter will almost certainly force his way into meaningful playing time. With Shorter at 6-foot-4, 226 pounds and Johnson at 6-foot-4, 231 pounds, the receiving corps has the chance to create matchup nightmares for opposing defensive backfields. Even without Hamilton, there's a good chance that Nittany receivers will be stronger in 2018.

Offensive Tackle

This is the group that has coaches and engaged fans buzzing. The offensive line depth was depleted by the scholarship sanctions earlier this decade, but the line finally has the ideal mix of experienced starters and young prospects for the first time in JFF's tenure. LT Ryan Bates is a stud -- his absence down the stretch at the Horseshoe proved to be the offense's undoing. At RT, the battle between reshirt senior Chasz Wright and redshirt sophomore Will Fries -- both of whom come with extensive starting experience -- can only be seen as a positive. 

Interior Offensive Line

The interior features a great mix of four-star talent: experienced junior returning starters Connor McGovern and Steven Gonzalez and highly regarded sophomore Michal Menet, the only new starter in the group.

The line play in 2017 was far and away the best yet during Franklin's run as coach, but there's every reason to expect even better production in 2018.

Defensive End

The talent here is absurd. The surefire starters in the group entering last season, Torrence Brown and Ryan Buchholz, both missed time with injuries last year. Brown may not return to the team given the extent of his knee injury. Like Bates on the offensive line, Buchholz's injury at Ohio State had a devastating impact on the defensive line.

The result of these injuries, however, is that redshirt junior Shareef Miller and a quartet of highly-regarded sophomores got tons of snaps in 2017. Daniel Joseph was the least noteworthy but comes with a pedigree. Shane Simmons flashed some skill. Shaka Toney proved to be an undersized pass-rushing specialist. That kind of player always gets a chance to get on the field. But it is Yetur Gross-Matos that has Nittany fans most excited. He has the size and quickness to be an every-down impact player...assuming he can get enough reps in this loaded rotation.

Defensive Tackle

This group is peculiar, as it has been for most of the past few years. There is no impact body to be found. Juniors Kevin Givens and Robert Windsor will get the first crack at primary jobs -- I've been a huge fan of Givens during his time on campus. Sophomores Ellison Jordan and Antonio Shelton will serve in reserve roles.

But when I look for a spot where youngsters will likely be thrust into key roles, this is the most likely location (rivaled by tight end). Fred Hansard has the classic 300+ pound run-stuffer body that isn't found elsewhere in the group. The biggest candidate to surprise, however, is Damion Barber. Barber arrived on campus last fall as a 245-pound defensive end. But given the number of plus young talent on the outside, Barber put on nearly 35 pounds in an effort to get on the field in the interior. Most likely, Barber will serve on the interior in obvious passing situations, providing the line with an extra rusher. It'll likely be tough for any of the three true freshman to get onto the field, but if somebody makes it, expect to see PJ Mustipher score some time.

Inside Linebacker

Well now, we get to the scary spot. As mentioned above, Cabinda is gone with no clear replacement. It'll be Luketa, Brooks, Johnson, Bowen, or senior Jake Cooper carrying most of the load. That's not a good thing. My bets are on Luketa or Bowen. Still, yikes.

Outside Linebacker

As it turns out, this group is likely in fine shape and, more importantly, in position to help ease the stress in the interior. Bowen has had an excellent Penn State career when on the field, Koa Farmer has grown into a plus starter as a senior, and junior Cam Brown has showed well when given a chance to play. Fellow junior Jarvis Miller will get some time, too. Most notably here, superstar true freshman Parsons will get on the field. If all goes well, he'll get on the field a lot.

I don't want to have too specific of a dream scenario here, but let's just say that Parsons and Farmer flanking Bowen would look awfully nice.

Cornerback

It's nearly impossible to graduate a draftee (Campbell) and an iconic, All-Big Ten three-year starter (Grant Haley) while still returning two All-Big Ten performers. But that's just what Penn State gets to do with senior Amani Oruwariye projected to start across from stud John Reid as he returns after missing all of 2017 with a knee injury. Reid remains Franklin's highest-rated corner recruit and has played in every game since he arrived on campus as a true freshman, starting every game as a sophomore. There's plenty of starting-level talent here.

Thanks to Reid's injury, Tariq Castro-Fields got some nice reps in 2017, as did Zech McPhearson. Castro-Fields was particularly impressive. I fully expect that he'll play his way into a full-time role in 2018, pushing Oruwariye back into his comfortable spot in the slot. Coming off of their redshirt seasons, DJ Brown and Donovan Johnson will really have to shine in practice to get themselves onto the field on Saturdays. That's a good problem to have.

Safety

Obviously Allen and Apke will both be dearly missed. I was a particularly huge Allen fan for years. That said, Nittany appears to have largely figured out the starting jobs here with senior captain Nick Scott (who wisely asked to be moved to safety from running back after practicing with Barkley as a freshman) joining converted cornerback Garrett Taylor at the back of the defense. There's always risk when replacing safeties, so this will be a tandem to watch. Redshirt freshman Jonathan Sutherland and true sophomore Lamont Wade will both help with the depth here. Wade's experience as a corner should help him get on the field, especially in sub packages.

Specialists

Junior punter Blake Gillikin has been an ace since arriving on campus. The kicking job remains an open competition as of mid-August, which rightly causes some concern, though freshman Jake Pinegar comes highly regarded. Long snapper Kyle Vasey got a scholarship, which is nifty. Hopefully nobody ever notices him.

The coverage units will really miss Charles.

The Schedule

When I looked at the team last December, this was a real area of focus. Since then, I picked every Big Ten game. Here is my look at the Penn State schedule followed by my pick for Big Ten standings and bowl assignments:

@ Penn State 31, Appalachian State 20

Penn State 31, @ Pittsburgh 26

@ Penn State 45, Kent State 16

Penn State 33, @ Illinois 16

Ohio State 30, @ Penn State 17

BYE

@ Penn State 34, Michigan State 28

Penn State 33, @ Indiana 20

Penn State 24, @ Iowa 20

@ Michigan 31, Penn State 24

@ Penn State 34, Wisconsin 27

Penn State 44, @ Rutgers 13

@ Penn State 28, Maryland 18

Big Ten West

Iowa -- 9-3 (7-2)

Wisconsin -- 9-3 (6-3)

Nebraska -- 7-5 (4-5)

Northwestern -- 5-7 (4-5)

Minnesota -- 6-6 (3-6)

Purdue -- 4-8 (2-7)

Illinois -- 2-10 (0-9)

• Like everyone, I think that Wisconsin is better than Iowa and I don't trust Ferentz to put together back-to-back winners at this stage in his career. But this is how the results shook out when I picked the games, so here we are.
• I believe in Frost.
• Northwestern is really tough to peg. If Thorson is back and at 95%, they should be pretty good. Without him, I'd be really scared.
• There's just no hope at Illinois.

Big Ten East

Ohio State -- 12-0 (9-0)

Penn State -- 10-2 (7-2)

Michigan -- 9-3 (7-2)

Michigan State -- 8-4 (5-4)

Maryland -- 6-6 (4-5)

Rutgers -- 5-7 (3-6)

Indiana -- 4-8 (2-7)

• The East is way better than the West.
• I don't ever know how to pick against Ohio State. They're just so ludicrously talented, even when breaking in a new quarterback and with significant off-field problems.
• Without picking individual games or looking at schedules, instead based solely on talent and coaching, I'd peg Ohio State for 11 or 12 wins, Michigan for 10 or 11, Michigan State for 9 or 10, and Penn State for 9 or 10. Penn State's relatively favorable schedule (only one tough back-to-back and all of Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin at home -- there's nothing like last year's Michigan/@ Ohio State/@ Michigan State gauntlet) and Michigan's brutal one (@ Ohio State, @ Notre Dame, @ Northwestern, @ Michigan State, home for Wisconsin and Penn State) impacted their projections. Michigan could be substantially better than last year yet only improve by one game thanks to their slate of opponents and game locations.
• Michigan State is just tough to gauge after their last two seasons. They return so much talent and Lewerke is awesome. Could they go 11-1? Could they go 7-5? I don't know.
• Those Rutgers and Indiana projections ended up awfully rosy.
• Things could really fall apart at Maryland depending on how things shake out for Durkin.

Bowl Assignments

Ohio State -- Cotton (CFP)

Penn State -- Peach

Michigan -- Rose

Wisconsin -- Citrus

Iowa -- Holiday

Michigan State -- Outback

Nebraska -- TaxSlayer

Maryland -- Pinstripe

Minnesota -- San Francisco

The one thing I don't like about these projections: there's no significant surprise team. Nebraska improving to 7-5 in Frost's debut season would be impressive but hardly earth-shattering. Somebody from the bottom half of the conference will likely piece together a strong season. I just don't know who and I have a hard time believing in Purdue.

So there we have it. The Penn State and Big Ten seasons for 2018. I'll look back in January to see where I missed badly and why.

Very Late 2018 Chicago Bears Draft Grades

This post was a long time coming, so let's dispense with the rosy introduction and get right into the analysis/grades. I wrote this in mid-to-late July, spilling into the time that the Bears reported for training camp (it clearly hasn't impacted my thoughts on Anthony Miller, though!). Enjoy!

Bears Draft ILB Roquan Smith #8 Overall
Grade: C+
Analysis: I like the Smith pick, hence the slightly above-average grade. I expect that he'll be a September starter for the Bears, even if he doesn't make the Opening Day starting 11, and that the Bears will unnecessarily push Danny Trevathan out the door in February following Smith's solid debut season.

If this grade seems low, recalibrate your grading scale. A "C" is average, so this is a good grade and a solid use of a premium asset, a top-10 pick.

Bears Draft G James Daniels #39 Overall
Grade: B
Analysis: While I like the Smith pick, I love the Daniels selection. Daniels represented great value early in the second round and he serves as a strong crutch in the event that Kyle Long's myriad injuries sap his ability sooner than expected.

There were other good players to be found at this juncture, but Pace did quite well to grab a plus talent even if he didn't provide the perfect roster fit.

Bears Trade 2019 Second-Round Pick and #105 Overall to New England for #51 Overall
Grade: F-
Analysis: This is what bad/stupid teams do. They fall in love with individual players, then pay a laughable premium to land them.

Now, it's not as if it is impossible to land such good value as to justify trading up. For his faults as a general manager, Phil Emery made arguably the best Bears trade of the decade when he slid up five spots in 2012 to draft Alshon Jeffery at #45 overall. The fifth-round pick that he surrendered to climb was abundantly worth it as Jeffery blossomed into a star.

But in this trade? It is, in fact, impossible. Using the Chase Stuart draft value chart, the 51st pick is worth 9.6 draft points. The 105th pick is worth 5.0 points. Even if the Bears win the Super Bowl in 2018 and score the 64th pick in the 2019 draft, they'll send over an additional 8.1 additional points of value, making the deal a 13.1-for-9.6 trade, paying a 36% premium. More realistically, the Bears will end up with something very near the 51st pick in 2019, meaning that they gave the Patriots the 105th pick for free. Just like a dumb team would.

Many folks push back on this type of analysis, discounting the value of future picks. That makes sense for Ryan Pace: Pace has a job to keep and another bad season or two likely sees him ushered out the door. It does not, however, make sense for fans of the Chicago Bears to discount the value of future picks. The 2021 season is just as valuable to me as the 2018 season. The 2021 Bears took a huge hit with this deal.

Finally, while there is some value in getting Anthony Miller an extra year of development time with Mitch Trubisky in Matt Nagy's...but there's not this much value.

Bears Draft WR Anthony Miller #51 Overall
Grade: F
Analysis: Ugh.

This pick checks every box in "what not to do on draft day" bingo:

1. Miller was a walk-on at Memphis, not a lifelong premium athlete.
2. Miller is already 23, turning 24 in October before his fifth professional game. Miller is older than Jordan Howard and only a year younger than Allen Robinson and Jonathan Bullard. Remember: Miller has yet to play in an NFL game. Miller isn't an athlete with untapped physical upside. Who he is now, physically, is who he will be.
3. Miller is 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, lacking the premium body that generally gets receivers drafted early.
4. Miller put up his gaudy numbers in a weak American Athletic Conference.
5. Miller missed his entire redshirt freshman year with a shoulder injury, then missed the NFL Combine after suffering a dreaded Jones fracture in his foot.

None of this is to say that Miller doesn't have a chance to succeed. I like Miller's body control and physicality, two key traits for most wide receivers in the NFL. Miller's 40 time (4.48) and vertical (39 inches) were both strong. However, both were recorded at Miller's Memphis Pro Day instead of at the Combine due to his Jones fracture. The Jones fracture is, simply put, a career killer for NFL wide receivers. It's not impossible to come back from the injury -- looking at you, Sammy Watkins and Kevin Durant -- but it has derailed plenty of careers and Miller is yet to play a game on his surgically repaired foot.

There's a story to be written about Miller's career in which his stellar work ethic and attitude transform the Bears' receiving corps into a devastating group of big-play ability with Miller catching back-shoulder fade after back-shoulder fade en route to completing the climb from walk-on to NFL stardom. Do we live in that universe? I don't think so. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

(It'll be awfully interesting to track the careers of Miller and troubled former Florida Gator Antonio Callaway, the player selected with the 105th pick sent out in the Miller trade.)

Bears Draft ILB Joel Iyiegbuniwe #115 Overall
Grade: D-
Analysis: Huh? This pick remains the most perplexing move that Pace made this offseason.

In drafting Smith, picking 2016 fourth-round pick Nick Kwiatkoski, and signing Trevathan to a significant free agent contract, Pace has loaded up at inside linebacker. The position group is bursting with talent, also aided by run-stuffer John Timu.

Inexplicably, in a draft where the team lacked a third-round pick and where Pace traded away next year's second-round pick, he quadrupled down at inside linebacker, bloating the depth chart while neglecting the obvious needs for talent at outside linebacker and defensive end. Drafting for need is a bad idea. A similarly bad idea? Drafting based exclusively on your grades when you're apparently in love with players at one position.

I suspect that Iyiegbuniwe will succeed as a special teamer with the Bears and that he'll get a crack at playing every-down football in his third or fourth year. Just remember that he's a luxury item for a club that figures to give Sam Acho significant snaps this year.

Bears Draft DE Bilal Nichols #145 Overall
Grade: C+
Analysis: Nichols is a solid pick. He's the type of talent that scouts love to find and the type of risk that I appreciate from Pace. There's not much sense in the Bears drafting a plug-and-play, Power 5 conference defensive end who is currently below-average and projects to end up there. The club has to jump every NFC North team and will need to hit on some risky picks to do so.

Nichols certainly qualifies. He has the body and athleticism to be a plus starter in the NFL, even if he has only a one-in-five shot of reaching that ceiling. That's a good risk at a position where the Bears figure to get excellent production from Akiem Hicks and above-average production from Jonathan Bullard in 2018. I like this choice, even if there's nothing that makes me love it.

Bears Draft OLB Kylie Fitts #181 Overall
Grade: B-
Analysis: Much like Nichols before him, Fitts fits the boom-or-bust mold quite well. Between Lisfranc, shoulder, and ankle injuries, Fitts spent more of his time at Utah nursing injuries than playing football. His three-cone drill time (6.88 seconds) came in with Harold Landry and Sam Hubbard, suggesting the Fitts has the necessary athleticism to be a productive pass rusher.

Will he stay on the field? Probably not. But if he does, the ceiling is such that Fitts could help boost a group that desperately needs it as the fourth rushing option behind Leonard Floyd, Aaron Lynch, and Acho.

Bears Draft WR Javon Wims #224 Overall
Grade: C
Analysis: At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Wims is a huge target. He's rather raw for an experience collegiate player and it's likely that he'll spend a year or two on the practice squad while he works to run the types of routes that Nagy's offense demands. But with his body, solid hands, and likely some special teams ability, Wims should be able to find some NFL reps in the next year.

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In the end, this was a below-average draft for the Bears. I like the Smith, Nichols, and Fitts picks and understand most of the others. But the Miller trade and pick is the kind of sneaky crippling move that haunts a franchise while the Iyiegbuniwe selection will have an extremely difficult time returning value to the club.