Bears Draft ILB Roquan Smith #8 Overall
Grade: C+
Analysis: I like the Smith pick, hence the slightly above-average grade. I expect that he'll be a September starter for the Bears, even if he doesn't make the Opening Day starting 11, and that the Bears will unnecessarily push Danny Trevathan out the door in February following Smith's solid debut season.
If this grade seems low, recalibrate your grading scale. A "C" is average, so this is a good grade and a solid use of a premium asset, a top-10 pick.
Bears Draft G James Daniels #39 Overall
Grade: B
Analysis: While I like the Smith pick, I love the Daniels selection. Daniels represented great value early in the second round and he serves as a strong crutch in the event that Kyle Long's myriad injuries sap his ability sooner than expected.
There were other good players to be found at this juncture, but Pace did quite well to grab a plus talent even if he didn't provide the perfect roster fit.
Bears Trade 2019 Second-Round Pick and #105 Overall to New England for #51 Overall
Grade: F-
Analysis: This is what bad/stupid teams do. They fall in love with individual players, then pay a laughable premium to land them.
Now, it's not as if it is impossible to land such good value as to justify trading up. For his faults as a general manager, Phil Emery made arguably the best Bears trade of the decade when he slid up five spots in 2012 to draft Alshon Jeffery at #45 overall. The fifth-round pick that he surrendered to climb was abundantly worth it as Jeffery blossomed into a star.
But in this trade? It is, in fact, impossible. Using the Chase Stuart draft value chart, the 51st pick is worth 9.6 draft points. The 105th pick is worth 5.0 points. Even if the Bears win the Super Bowl in 2018 and score the 64th pick in the 2019 draft, they'll send over an additional 8.1 additional points of value, making the deal a 13.1-for-9.6 trade, paying a 36% premium. More realistically, the Bears will end up with something very near the 51st pick in 2019, meaning that they gave the Patriots the 105th pick for free. Just like a dumb team would.
Many folks push back on this type of analysis, discounting the value of future picks. That makes sense for Ryan Pace: Pace has a job to keep and another bad season or two likely sees him ushered out the door. It does not, however, make sense for fans of the Chicago Bears to discount the value of future picks. The 2021 season is just as valuable to me as the 2018 season. The 2021 Bears took a huge hit with this deal.
Finally, while there is some value in getting Anthony Miller an extra year of development time with Mitch Trubisky in Matt Nagy's...but there's not this much value.
Bears Draft WR Anthony Miller #51 Overall
Grade: F
Analysis: Ugh.
This pick checks every box in "what not to do on draft day" bingo:
- Miller was a walk-on at Memphis, not a lifelong premium athlete.
- Miller is already 23, turning 24 in October before his fifth professional game. Miller is older than Jordan Howard and only a year younger than Allen Robinson and Jonathan Bullard. Remember: Miller has yet to play in an NFL game. Miller isn't an athlete with untapped physical upside. Who he is now, physically, is who he will be.
- Miller is 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, lacking the premium body that generally gets receivers drafted early.
- Miller put up his gaudy numbers in a weak American Athletic Conference.
- Miller missed his entire redshirt freshman year with a shoulder injury, then missed the NFL Combine after suffering a dreaded Jones fracture in his foot.
There's a story to be written about Miller's career in which his stellar work ethic and attitude transform the Bears' receiving corps into a devastating group of big-play ability with Miller catching back-shoulder fade after back-shoulder fade en route to completing the climb from walk-on to NFL stardom. Do we live in that universe? I don't think so. Here's hoping I'm wrong.
(It'll be awfully interesting to track the careers of Miller and troubled former Florida Gator Antonio Callaway, the player selected with the 105th pick sent out in the Miller trade.)
Bears Draft ILB Joel Iyiegbuniwe #115 Overall
Grade: D-
Analysis: Huh? This pick remains the most perplexing move that Pace made this offseason.
In drafting Smith, picking 2016 fourth-round pick Nick Kwiatkoski, and signing Trevathan to a significant free agent contract, Pace has loaded up at inside linebacker. The position group is bursting with talent, also aided by run-stuffer John Timu.
Inexplicably, in a draft where the team lacked a third-round pick and where Pace traded away next year's second-round pick, he quadrupled down at inside linebacker, bloating the depth chart while neglecting the obvious needs for talent at outside linebacker and defensive end. Drafting for need is a bad idea. A similarly bad idea? Drafting based exclusively on your grades when you're apparently in love with players at one position.
I suspect that Iyiegbuniwe will succeed as a special teamer with the Bears and that he'll get a crack at playing every-down football in his third or fourth year. Just remember that he's a luxury item for a club that figures to give Sam Acho significant snaps this year.
Bears Draft DE Bilal Nichols #145 Overall
Grade: C+
Analysis: Nichols is a solid pick. He's the type of talent that scouts love to find and the type of risk that I appreciate from Pace. There's not much sense in the Bears drafting a plug-and-play, Power 5 conference defensive end who is currently below-average and projects to end up there. The club has to jump every NFC North team and will need to hit on some risky picks to do so.
Nichols certainly qualifies. He has the body and athleticism to be a plus starter in the NFL, even if he has only a one-in-five shot of reaching that ceiling. That's a good risk at a position where the Bears figure to get excellent production from Akiem Hicks and above-average production from Jonathan Bullard in 2018. I like this choice, even if there's nothing that makes me love it.
Bears Draft OLB Kylie Fitts #181 Overall
Grade: B-
Analysis: Much like Nichols before him, Fitts fits the boom-or-bust mold quite well. Between Lisfranc, shoulder, and ankle injuries, Fitts spent more of his time at Utah nursing injuries than playing football. His three-cone drill time (6.88 seconds) came in with Harold Landry and Sam Hubbard, suggesting the Fitts has the necessary athleticism to be a productive pass rusher.
Will he stay on the field? Probably not. But if he does, the ceiling is such that Fitts could help boost a group that desperately needs it as the fourth rushing option behind Leonard Floyd, Aaron Lynch, and Acho.
Bears Draft WR Javon Wims #224 Overall
Grade: C
Analysis: At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Wims is a huge target. He's rather raw for an experience collegiate player and it's likely that he'll spend a year or two on the practice squad while he works to run the types of routes that Nagy's offense demands. But with his body, solid hands, and likely some special teams ability, Wims should be able to find some NFL reps in the next year.
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In the end, this was a below-average draft for the Bears. I like the Smith, Nichols, and Fitts picks and understand most of the others. But the Miller trade and pick is the kind of sneaky crippling move that haunts a franchise while the Iyiegbuniwe selection will have an extremely difficult time returning value to the club.
