As the end of March nears, Opening Day is just one week away! There will certainly be celebrations throughout the land as first pitches around the country announce the official return of summer.
As we look forward that single week, I'd like to look forward seven months instead to the end of October and envision what the standings and playoff tree will look like at the end of the season. It's time for my sure-to-be-wildly-wrong 2016 MLB picks.
American League Central
Cleveland (93-69)
Detroit (86-76)
Kansas City (84-78)
Chicago White Sox (82-80)
Minnesota (78-84)
The AL Central could be won by any of the division's five teams. The Twins have a middling rotation and some holes in the lineup, but the club's ceiling is extremely high if everything breaks right as full seasons from Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano could be a real boost while wild card pitchers like Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco are projected for subpar results despite having plenty of success under their belts. The Twins are on their way, but it might take another year.
The White Sox have addressed many of their largest holes and their starting rotation looks excellent, especially with Carson Fulmer inevitably arrives during the season's first half to join Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon. Wow. So why won't they win? Simple: they can't play defense and there's no depth. One of those items will scuttle their postseason dreams.
The Royals just keep winning, so it feels silly to project them so close to .500. I just hate their starting rotation. It's not any good.
The Tigers filled their holes admirably this winter, but their aged offense and dearth of depth should give them trouble this year. They'll be in the hunt, however, so good on Mike Ilitch for keeping the team in the mix. Either Daniel Norris or Michael Fulmer will push them into the Wild Card Game.
That brings us to Cleveland. I loved them last year and they underperformed as much as any team has in years. With Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, their top-three is as good as it gets. Trevor Bauer still comes with plenty of ceiling and their elite bullpen will finally win them bundles of games. Don't be surprised if they make a big move for an outfielder to bridge the gap from their current roster to the dynamic duo of Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, both of whom need a bit more seasoning. But that's tinkering: the rotation, bullpen, and Kipnis-Lindor combination up the middle will have the Indians winning the Central this year.
American League East
Boston (88-74)
Toronto (86-76)
New York Yankees (78-84)
Tampa Bay (77-85)
Baltimore (70-92)
It's difficult for me to hate an offseason more than the one the Orioles had. They caught a break when Matt Wieters accepted his qualifying offer, something that should pay dividends for Baltimore. But paying top dollar to keep flash-in-the-pan slugger Chris Davis while allowing Wei-Yin Chen to walk boggles my mind. Their outfield looks poor as Adam Jones ages and their starting rotation looks really, really bad. They're going to struggle again in the East.
While the Orioles will struggle in their rotation, the Rays have a true ace in Chris Archer followed by a number of strong complementary arms. Unfortunately, they just can't hit. They won't score enough to win.
The Yankees are going to have a mind-blowing bullpen with Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman ending plenty of games after six innings. Unfortunately for them, the New York position players leave a lot to be desired even before their contracts are considered. It's a middling group that could yield anywhere from 72 to 92 wins, but I think that (1) distractions surrounding Chapman and (2) injuries to the old guard will keep the Yanks closer to their floor.
After finally breaking out with a wildly talented core group, the Jays are going to fall back some due to a rotation that doesn't stack up. The back of their bullpen should hold up and they're going to score a lot, but I don't like the rotation enough.
This gets us to the BoSox. I'm not under the illusion that Boston will excel in 2016, but it's difficult to add David Price and Craig Kimbrel to a roster without making it significantly better. There's plenty of depth in the upper minors to buoy the team throughout the season and their offense should score a lot of runs. This team still comes with a lot more risk that you'd regularly expect from such an expensive roster, but the ceiling is high and the floor has come up considerably. I like their chances to reach October.
American League West
Houston (95-67)
Anaheim (84-78)
Seattle (83-79)
Texas (80-82)
Oakland (68-94)
Words that I plan to eat in six months: I hate the roster that Billy Beane has built in Oakland. The starting rotation looks awful after Sonny Gray, and the only lineup regular projected for an on-base percentage above .325 is the awful Yonder Alonso. This is a bad team headed for a July fire sale. Get your Gray trade proposals ready!
In contrast to Oakland, I actually like the roster built by Texas GM Jon Daniels. Yet I think that the lack of starting pitching or bullpen depth will prevent the club from returning to the playoffs. There's nothing particularly wrong with Texas; it's just that some teams have to lose more than we might expect on the surface. I'm picking the Rangers. Their minor league system should have them back in contention by 2017, however.
The Mariners are the weirdest collection of talent with plenty of average-ish looking regulars who could be hugely disappointing (examples: Seth Smith, Ketel Marte, Leonys Martin, Hisashi Iwakuma) and a few stars coming off of bizarre 2015 seasons as Felix Hernandez collapsed in the second half after Robinson Cano did so in the first half. I could see the M's break the 90-win barrier but I could just as easily see them meander toward a 78-win year. Gross. The future looks bleak, though, as their system refuses to produce fruit.
How far can a few stars carry an otherwise subpar team? Mike Trout, Garrett Richards, Kole Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons, and perhaps Andrew Heaney are about to tell us. This is a club that figures to start Jered Weaver, Carlos Perez, Johnny Giavotella, C.J. Cron, and Daniel Nava. Yunel Escobar and/or Tyler Skaggs will need huge years to push them into the playoffs.
Strangely, I'm not impressed by the Houston rotation - lack of velocity can do that sometimes - but the roster as a whole is beautiful. You want effective starting pitching? Dallas Keuchel, Colin McHugh, Lance McCullers, and Mike Fiers are here. You want a lock-down back-of-the-bullpen duo? Look no further than Ken Giles and Luke Gregerson. Like teams that are strong up the middle? Jason Castro, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Carlos Gomez are as good as it gets. Want power in the corners? Despite their other flaws (namely lacking on-base skills), Jon Singleton, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, and George Springer fit the bill. This doesn't feel like a traditional powerhouse given the flaws of some of the players, but I believe in this team.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs (97-65)
St. Louis (90-72)
Pittsburgh (87-75)
Cincinnati (74-88)
Milwaukee (63-99)
Some teams lose because they aren't quite good enough. Other teams lose because players get injured or prospects falter. The 2016 Brewers? They're going to lose because they're trying to lose. It's going to be an ugly summer in Milwaukee. Their best hope is that guys like Matt Garza and Jonathan Lucroy recover enough trade value to return a real package at the deadline while the front office hits on their top picks.
The Reds won't be as bad as their record indicates; they're just stuck in a loaded division. Their rotation should be about average while their position players should be as well...at least until the front office unloads a few more of them this summer, causing their record to falter. This franchise will be relevant again soon.
The Pirates are going to be good. Seriously good. Their rotation looks wobbly after Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano, but their bullpen is excellent with a few wild cards who could make it even better, their outfield defense remains superb, and their infield has some upside possibilities. Will that be enough in 2016 in the haves and have-nots National League? It's going to be close.
The Cardinals always have pitching and 2016 will be no different. It's difficult to envision an elite ceiling with their roster, but their floor is extremely high. They'll be in the race all year, even before accounting for the fact that the Cardinals always win. Their attempts to nab Jason Heyward and David Price in free agency do indicate that their front office figured that the team needed a boost. Perhaps there's a crack in the armor?
There's no pretending that I'm not biased toward the Cubs, but even taking off my fan cap in favor of my analyst cap yields the same result: this team is undeniably enticing, loaded with talent at every position with contingency plans to spare. Don't love the Miguel Montero-David Ross catching duo? One of baseball's top catching prospects, Willson Contreras, awaits at Triple-A. Don't think Jason Heyward is a centerfielder? Don't worry, Dexter Fowler is back to handle the position. Don't love the infield of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist? Well, first off, you're crazy. Secondly, Javier Baez and Tommy La Stella are there to soften any injury blows. And even if you don't believe in Jake Arrieta or you worry about injuries after his 2015 workload, a rotation of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel, and Adam Warren with Travis Wood as the sixth man stacks up well among Major League rotations. This team is loaded. Let's see if they can avoid the Cubness that has doomed previous rosters. The floor is extraordinarily high by virtue of the talent and depth of the roster, but with only five playoff spots available for nine clubs, good teams will miss the playoffs.
National League West
Los Angeles (94-68)
San Francisco (93-69)
Arizona (84-78)
San Diego (72-90)
Colorado (60-102)
Nolan Arenado is aweoms.e Jake McGee is too. Other than that, no player stands out as impactful for the Rockies and the likes of Ben Paulson, Chad Bettis, and Jordan Lyles all figure to play prominent roles for the club in 2015. I'm still dumbfounded that the team didn't find a new home for Carlos Gonzalez last summer, though taking on Jose Reyes' terrible deal as part of the Troy Tulowitzki swap is probably even worse, even before Reyes' domestic abuse disaster. 2016 will be a year to forget (unless you love athletic, rangy outfield prospects like David Dahl and Raimel Tapia).
The Padres will be better than a 70-92 club this year, but (1) the top three teams in their division will make this year tougher, and (2) A.J. Preller will almost certainly jump at the chance to reload his farm system if the likes of James Shields and Andrew Cashner produce this year. A healthy first half from Cashner would be a huge boon to the franchise.
The Diamondbacks are projected to receive a grand total of 2.0 WAR from their shortstop, second base, and left field positions. Combined. Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Zack Greinke, and Patrick Corbin are all really good (assuming Pollock's 2015 was real), but the holes on this roster are significant. Welington Castillo is a good fit for the ballpark as a power-first catcher, but he was available for peanuts as recently as last summer and there's nothing in the system to replace him if he falters. Despite Greinke's addition and the ridiculous overpay for Shelby Miller, Dave Stewart's club is still loaded with warts.
I went back and forth over and over again between the Giants and Dodgers. In the end, the San Francisco outfield cost them the division as the injury woes of Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Gregor Blanco, and Angel Pagan make the position group iffy. Their infield is amazing (Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Duffy --> WOW!) and their pitching staff should be as good as any in the game, though they'll likely have to acquire a starting pitcher at the deadline assuming that all else is progressing smoothly. I expect that the Bumgarner-Cueto-Samardzija trio will win them a lot of games this year. Good look to whoever faces MadBum in October.
Then we have the Dodgers, aka where pitchers go to get hurt. The Dodgers weaknesses appear to be their outfield (after Yasiel Puig) and their non-Kershaw starting pitchers, but between Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Scott Van Slyke, and Carl Crawford in the outfield, and Scott Kazmir, Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Zach Lee, and prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon in the rotation, the Dodgers should easily fill their holes adequately. I don't know if they'll be an excellent team, but they'll be really good and without holes.
National League East
New York Mets (91-71)
Washington (84-78)
Miami (83-79)
Philadelphia (64-98)
Atlanta (62-100)
The battle for the cellar in the NL East is going to be a doozy. The Braves have done their darndest to get there, and when they make up an insignificant injury for Freddie Freeman that somehow keeps him out of action for two months, they'll lose just enough to get to the basement. If they trade Julio Teheran and Erick Aybar, as expected, their win total could drop into the mid-50s. They'll be much more interesting in September when their gaggle of prospects begins to arrive.
The Phillies will be terrible, make no mistake about it. But they're going to pitch just a bit too well to out-lose the Braves. Still, yuck. What an awful roster.
The Marlins outfield looks great again, especially with a healthy Giancarlo Stanton, and the rotation has a two-headed monster that should work quite well with Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen. Unfortunately, the infield underwhelms, the back of the rotation looks quite poor, and the bullpen has massive holes at the back given a wobbly elbow for A.J. Ramos and Tommy John surgery for Carter Capps. The Marlins could make some noise this year, but I don't think that they're deep enough, in part because I don't believe in Dee Gordon.
It's remarkable how quickly the Nationals went from looking like the best team in the game to looking like Angels East. Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Anthony Rendon still form an idyllic core, but the supporting pieces are either raw (Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner) or fragile (Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth). There's absolutely a 90+ win team in here, but there's also a sputtering .500 roster in play. If anything happens to the five players listed above, they have no shot. That's too risky. Plus, Jon Papelbon inexplicably remains on the roster and that just doesn't bode well.
The Mets position players look solid across the board and the club will have excellent depth among their 13 rostered non-pitchers. There's a lack of star power given Yoenis Cespedes's glovework in center field and David Wright's injury woes, but average or better regulars at nearly every spot put them in good position. With the rotation, Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero are on the outside looking in. That says enough. The bullpen isn't quite that strong, but it should be a plus unit. They're going to cruise to the East crown.
Season Summary and Playoff Tree
The above picks would see the American League feature an above-average collective record of 1232-1198, primarily by virtue of avoiding the stinkbombs expected to come out of Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Colorado. The playoff matchups in the National League would be a dream for Commissioner Manfred whereas the American League matchups...not so much. Let's look at the playoffs:
Wild Card Games
Detroit over Toronto
San Francisco over St. Louis
Division Series
Detroit over Houston
Cleveland over Boston
Chicago Cubs over San Francisco
New York Mets over Los Angeles
Championship Series
Cleveland over Detroit
New York Mets over Chicago Cubs
World Series
New York Mets over Cleveland
The Commissioner's head might explode if he gets to pair a New York-Los Angeles matchup with a Chicago-San Francisco matchup a year after having the same pair of series with San Francisco replacing St. Louis. It's almost too much.
Awards
Finally, no season is complete with selecting the best players in each league. Accordingly, here are my predicted award winners:
MVP
AL: CF Mike Trout
NL: RF Giancarlo Stanton
Cy Young
AL: Corey Kluber
NL: SP Madison Bumgarner
Rookie of the Year
AL: CF Byron Buxton
NL: SS Corey Seager
Manager of the Year
AL: Terry Francona
NL: Bruce Bochy
Let the fun begin!
Monday, March 28, 2016
A Revised Look at the Bears 2016 Draft Following Free Agency
My last post, a pre-free agency look at a dream scenario for the 2016 offseason, stated that the Bears needed to find the following:
- a starting DE
- two starting ILBs
- a starting CB
- a starting OT/OG
- a starting-caliber TE
Well, here we are two months later and that list is markedly shorter in that it is now empty. Sweet! Here's what Pace did to address the above:
- a starting DE
---------- signed DE Akiem Hicks to a two-year, $10M contract ($5M guaranteed)
- two starting ILBs
---------- signed ILB Danny Trevathan to a four-year, $24.5M contract ($12M guaranteed)
---------- signed ILB Jerrell Freeman to a three-year, $12M contract ($6M guaranteed)
- a starting CB
---------- signed CB Tracy Porter to a three-year, $15M contract ($4.25M guaranteed)
- a starting OT/OG
---------- signed OT Bobby Massie to a three-year, $18M contract ($6.5M guaranteed)
- a starting-caliber TE
---------- signed TE Zach Miller to a two-year, $6M contract ($3M guaranteed)
As is often the case when dealing with non-elite free agents, there is very little dead money on any of these deals following year one. In fact, the crown jewel of the class, Trevathan, has more dead money on his deal as of 2017 ($5.75M) than all other free agents signed to multi-year deals by the Bears this March combined: Freeman ($2M), Hicks ($1M), Massie ($1M), Porter ($600K), Miller ($500K), and Sherrick McManis ($300K) have $5.4M in dead money combined on their deals next year.
Pace effectively signed an entire free agent class to somewhat glorified one-year deals with the exception of Trevathan. Good on you, Ryan.
At this point, despite the fact that the Bears have approximately $21,584,432 in cap space according to my calculations (after accounting for dead money, the draft class, and the practice squad), I expect that Pace is probably done shopping for free agents, at least until after the draft (even though a guy like CB Leon Hall or G/C Stefen Wisniewski would look fantastic filling out this roster).
Which points us to the draft. The best draft approach involves taking the best player available, though the ideal draft scenario involves the best player available while simultaneously filling a position of need/want on a team's roster. Such was the case with WR Kevin White and subsequently with NT Eddie Goldman last year. So what are the odds of the same thing happening this year?
Very, very good.
Following Pace's free agent barrage, my rough estimates for each position groups areas of need/improvement are as follows with "10" representing the Bears quarterback position of the early 2000s and "0" representing the Bears Hall of Fame-studded defensive line of the mid-1980s:
0: WR, G
1: ILB
2: NT
3:
4: C
5: DE
6:
7: RB
8: OT
9: QB, TE, OLB, S
10: CB, K
The team is loaded with talent - though not necessarily of the star variety - at wide receiver, guard, and inside linebacker, not even needing additional reserves. Nose tackle only makes the list because Terry Williams and D'Anthony Smith are underwhelming backups to stud Goldman.
Hroniss Grasu should be pushed at center but only by a reserve, and while the quartet of Akiem Hicks, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, and Cornelius Washington could use another, better body, the need isn't alarming at this point.
As for the other spots: Jeremy Langford could use a buddy. Charles Leno is hardly proven at LT. The tight end group would have seen this number drop in a big way had the Saints declined to match Josh Hill's offer sheet but since New Orleans kept Hill, the duo of Miller and Khari Lee needs more intrigue. Lamarr Houston showed enough in December to warrant another look this year, but it's entirely possible that Willie Young and Houston will be gone after this year, rendering OLB a serious need, especially with Pernell McPhee's fragility. The safety group needs an infusion of a better young athlete than Harold Jones-Quartey, but this group would be a "7" if Antrel Rolle was solid and a "10!" if Rolle was hurt again.
It's no secret that Jay Cutler doesn't figure to last forever with the Bears and, in fact, he can be cut following the 2016 season with a dead money charge of just $2M. New regimes mean new quarterbacks, so expect to see Pace and John Fox grab a new quarterback at some point in the next 14 months, either in this draft or the next one.
As for the two biggest outstanding needs: the cornerback group is quite poor. I maintain plenty of hope for Bryce Callahan as a #4 CB and Kyle Fuller still looks like a #1/#2 if things continue to work. But Tracy Porter is a fragile #3 and Sherrick McManis should only play on special teams. The Bears need a new body to top the depth chart here. And then kicker. This makes me eminently sad. Robbie Gould has lived my dream sports life: this former kicker and fan of both the Nittany Lions and Bears has always loved Robbie. However, in 2015, Gould was the NFL's worst kicker by a wide margin - primarily by virtue of his terrible kickoffs - making his $4.1M cap hit absolutely untenable. Gould figures to benefit more than any other kicker in the league from the NFL's rule change moving touchbacks from the 20 to the 25, but it's also possible that his leg is spent. If I'm advocating for his release, it's almost certainly time.
With that treatise out of the way, let's look at the draft. As a reminder, each pick's targets consider the players previously drafted. Accordingly, for example, if the team drafts two cornerbacks earlier in the draft, don't expect to see another one in the 6th round.
First Round (#11 overall)
Possibilities: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon), DE A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), CB Vernon Hargreaves (Florida), OT Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), QB Carson Wentz (North Dakota State), QB Jared Goff (California), OT Jack Conklin (Michigan State)
Analysis: Since my last update, two major developments have rocked the draft board. First, Jaylon Smith's knee injury has proved to be much more alarming than expected, likely dropping Smith out of the first round entirely and sending him well down the draft board. Second, my personal favorite, Myles Jack, has wowed teams and prognosticators with his crazy skills, sending him flying up draft boards. While this is no surprise to me, it means that Jack is out of consideration.
Much like last time, I assume that a group of players will be gone: OT Laremy Tunsil, DE Joey Bosa, Jack, and S Jalen Ramsey. In this underwhelming class, that's it.
I'm not a fan of Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd, so I have the Bears looking at seven prospects. Either QB (Wentz or Goff) fits. Conklin or Stanley would both make plenty of sense. But the bet here is that Pace goes with one of the defenders, grabbing Robinson or Buckner to bring a pass rush from the edge-setting 3-4 DE spot or Hargreaves to man the #1 CB spot. Because I only like-but-don't-love Hargreaves, I'll state my preference for one of the DEs. If I'm choosing between those two, it's easy.
The Pick: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon)
Second Round (#41 overall)
Possibilities: OLB Shilique Calhoun (Michigan State), CB Mackensie Alexander (Clemson), CB Eli Apple (Ohio State), CB Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), OT Jason Spriggs (Indiana), OT Taylor Decker (Ohio State), TE Hunter Henry (Arkansas)
Analysis: This group is simply defined: a pass rusher, three corners, two tackles, and a tight end since the Saints kept Hill.
My favorite player in the group remains Apple, though any of these players would be a nice addition to the roster. While Fuller would be a nice story being paired with his brother, his injury concerns are significant.
The Pick: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)
Third Round (#72 overall)
Possibilities: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn State), QB Connor Cook (Michigan State), S Vonn Bell (Ohio State), S Jalen Mills (LSU), OT Tyler Johnstone (Oregon)
Analysis: This is definitely the toughest pick of the draft for the Bears. If both quarterbacks are on the board, the front office will be tempted to nab one given their impressive pedigrees and conceivably coachable flaws.
Unfortunately, both safeties represent even bigger needs and similar values.
I still love Mills. I'm not changing this pick until somebody makes me. Given Cook's arm and his pro-style experience, I doubt he makes it quite this far. Accordingly, I'll stick with the safety while acknowledging that I'd probably take Cook over Mills if presented with the opportunity.
The Pick: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
Fourth Round (#106 overall)
Possibilities: ILB Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), OLB Carl Nassib (Penn State), QB Cardale Jones (Ohio State), OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
Analysis: This is another interesting spot.
I think that the front office would jump at Smith if he dropped this far. He's an impact talent if healthy, so even if there's only a 5% chance that he's healthy, the value is simply too strong this far down in the draft. He probably doesn't fall this far. Probably.
Nassib is the definition of a one-year wonder. In 2014, he had seven tackles. In 2015, he had 15.5 sacks even though he missed a quarter of the season with a shoulder injury. He's got more of a classic 4-3 DE build, but he added nearly 60 pounds to his frame in college, so it may be worth examining whether he could shed 10-15 of those to man an OLB spot.
Jones is a flyer on a big-bodied, big-armed, inexperienced quarterback who should have turned pro 14 months ago.
McCalister jumps out at me, too. He's a little undersized and his straight-line speed isn't overwhelming. It's possible than NFL tackles will simply be too big and strong for him to use his pass rushing moves. But I like what I've seen and I think that he could work as a specialist, even as a rookie.
I'm going to assume that Smith is off the board; otherwise, he'd be the pick, risk be damned.
The Pick: OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
Fourth Round (#127 overall)
Possibilities: S Jayron Kearse (Clemson), OT Denver Kirkland (Arkansas), OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA), DE Anthony Zettel (Penn State)
Analysis: The pre-draft process hasn't been particularly kind to Kearse or Zettel which tells me that either player would represent solid value at this juncture: they're better football players than they are testing prospects.
Kirkland was intriguing before but I don't love him. Benenoch, on the other hand, really jumps out to me. He's a perfect reserve as a rookie given that he played both guard and tackle at UCLA. Further, the Combine revealed that while his arms aren't as long as Stanley's or Conklin's, they are comparable to those of Tunsil. That's plenty encouraging and probably worth a flyer.
The Pick: OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA)
Fifth Round (#150 overall)
Possibilities: DE Shawn Oakman (Baylor), RB Devontae Booker (Utah), RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama), RB Kelvin Taylor (Florida), S Elijah Shumate (Notre Dame)
Analysis: Oakman might not be all that good at football, but the chance to take a shot on a 6'9", 280-lbs. DE sure is tempting.
Drake comes with serious injury red flags (multiple broken bones in college) but also the plusses of being (1) incredibly fast and (2) a backup running back from Alabama. Those guys have solid track records. Booker and Taylor are both solid enough as prospects, though neither is as enticing as Drake.
The Pick: RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama)
Sixth Round (#185 overall)
Possibilities: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
Analysis: Jones would still be a great return man, but with Deonte Thompson on board and a league that continually marginalizes the value of returns, perhaps he's not worth it to the Bears. His 40 time and his tiny frame make it tough to employ him as a regular in the defensive backfield. That said, if Jones is available, he'll be a great pick here.
The Pick: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
Sixth Round (#206 overall)
Possibilities: NT Antwaun Woods (USC), TE Bryce Williams (East Carolina)
Analysis: Woods would still be a nice get here to backup Goldman. Williams obviously comes with some optimism too, though his speed (or lack thereof) knocks him down a peg or two.
The Pick: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)
Seventh Round (#230 overall)
Possibilities: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
Analysis: If the Bears can still nab Fairbairn here, they should do it and pocket the massive cap savings.
The Pick: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
The complete draft class as listed above would be as follows:
1.011: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon)
2.041: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)
3.072: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
4.106: OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
4.127: OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA)
5.150: RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama)
6.185: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
6.206: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)
7.230: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
FINAL ROSTER With all of that wheeling and dealing - both real and projected - the Bears would find themselves with the following approximate 53-man roster (draftees in italics, free agents in bold, re-signed free agents underlined):
SP (3): Ka'imi Fairbairn, Pat O'Donnell, Patrick Scales
QB (2): Jay Cutler, David Fales
C (1): Hroniss Grasu
G (2): Kyle Long, Matt Slauson
OT (5): Bobby Massie, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje, Caleb Benenoch, Nick Becton
RB (4): Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kenyan Drake
WR (7): Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Deonte Thompson, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy
TE (3): Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Rob Housler
NT (2): Eddie Goldman, Antwaun Woods
DE (6): Akiem Hicks, DeForest Buckner, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, Mitch Unrein, Cornelius Washington
ILB (4): Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Christian Jones, Jonathan Anderson
OLB (4): Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Alex McCalister
CB (6): Kyle Fuller, Tracy Porter, Eli Apple, Bryce Callahan, Cyrus Jones, Sherrick McManis
S (4): Adrian Amos, Jalen Mills, Antrel Rolle, Harold Jones-Quartey
There's no chance of the team keeping seven receivers, with Bellamy as the most likely odd man out given that he has no guaranteed money in his contract. Still, that's not a bad team. Not bad at all.
- a starting DE
- two starting ILBs
- a starting CB
- a starting OT/OG
- a starting-caliber TE
Well, here we are two months later and that list is markedly shorter in that it is now empty. Sweet! Here's what Pace did to address the above:
- a starting DE
---------- signed DE Akiem Hicks to a two-year, $10M contract ($5M guaranteed)
- two starting ILBs
---------- signed ILB Danny Trevathan to a four-year, $24.5M contract ($12M guaranteed)
---------- signed ILB Jerrell Freeman to a three-year, $12M contract ($6M guaranteed)
- a starting CB
---------- signed CB Tracy Porter to a three-year, $15M contract ($4.25M guaranteed)
- a starting OT/OG
---------- signed OT Bobby Massie to a three-year, $18M contract ($6.5M guaranteed)
- a starting-caliber TE
---------- signed TE Zach Miller to a two-year, $6M contract ($3M guaranteed)
As is often the case when dealing with non-elite free agents, there is very little dead money on any of these deals following year one. In fact, the crown jewel of the class, Trevathan, has more dead money on his deal as of 2017 ($5.75M) than all other free agents signed to multi-year deals by the Bears this March combined: Freeman ($2M), Hicks ($1M), Massie ($1M), Porter ($600K), Miller ($500K), and Sherrick McManis ($300K) have $5.4M in dead money combined on their deals next year.
Pace effectively signed an entire free agent class to somewhat glorified one-year deals with the exception of Trevathan. Good on you, Ryan.
At this point, despite the fact that the Bears have approximately $21,584,432 in cap space according to my calculations (after accounting for dead money, the draft class, and the practice squad), I expect that Pace is probably done shopping for free agents, at least until after the draft (even though a guy like CB Leon Hall or G/C Stefen Wisniewski would look fantastic filling out this roster).
Which points us to the draft. The best draft approach involves taking the best player available, though the ideal draft scenario involves the best player available while simultaneously filling a position of need/want on a team's roster. Such was the case with WR Kevin White and subsequently with NT Eddie Goldman last year. So what are the odds of the same thing happening this year?
Very, very good.
Following Pace's free agent barrage, my rough estimates for each position groups areas of need/improvement are as follows with "10" representing the Bears quarterback position of the early 2000s and "0" representing the Bears Hall of Fame-studded defensive line of the mid-1980s:
0: WR, G
1: ILB
2: NT
3:
4: C
5: DE
6:
7: RB
8: OT
9: QB, TE, OLB, S
10: CB, K
The team is loaded with talent - though not necessarily of the star variety - at wide receiver, guard, and inside linebacker, not even needing additional reserves. Nose tackle only makes the list because Terry Williams and D'Anthony Smith are underwhelming backups to stud Goldman.
Hroniss Grasu should be pushed at center but only by a reserve, and while the quartet of Akiem Hicks, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, and Cornelius Washington could use another, better body, the need isn't alarming at this point.
As for the other spots: Jeremy Langford could use a buddy. Charles Leno is hardly proven at LT. The tight end group would have seen this number drop in a big way had the Saints declined to match Josh Hill's offer sheet but since New Orleans kept Hill, the duo of Miller and Khari Lee needs more intrigue. Lamarr Houston showed enough in December to warrant another look this year, but it's entirely possible that Willie Young and Houston will be gone after this year, rendering OLB a serious need, especially with Pernell McPhee's fragility. The safety group needs an infusion of a better young athlete than Harold Jones-Quartey, but this group would be a "7" if Antrel Rolle was solid and a "10!" if Rolle was hurt again.
It's no secret that Jay Cutler doesn't figure to last forever with the Bears and, in fact, he can be cut following the 2016 season with a dead money charge of just $2M. New regimes mean new quarterbacks, so expect to see Pace and John Fox grab a new quarterback at some point in the next 14 months, either in this draft or the next one.
As for the two biggest outstanding needs: the cornerback group is quite poor. I maintain plenty of hope for Bryce Callahan as a #4 CB and Kyle Fuller still looks like a #1/#2 if things continue to work. But Tracy Porter is a fragile #3 and Sherrick McManis should only play on special teams. The Bears need a new body to top the depth chart here. And then kicker. This makes me eminently sad. Robbie Gould has lived my dream sports life: this former kicker and fan of both the Nittany Lions and Bears has always loved Robbie. However, in 2015, Gould was the NFL's worst kicker by a wide margin - primarily by virtue of his terrible kickoffs - making his $4.1M cap hit absolutely untenable. Gould figures to benefit more than any other kicker in the league from the NFL's rule change moving touchbacks from the 20 to the 25, but it's also possible that his leg is spent. If I'm advocating for his release, it's almost certainly time.
With that treatise out of the way, let's look at the draft. As a reminder, each pick's targets consider the players previously drafted. Accordingly, for example, if the team drafts two cornerbacks earlier in the draft, don't expect to see another one in the 6th round.
First Round (#11 overall)
Possibilities: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon), DE A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), CB Vernon Hargreaves (Florida), OT Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), QB Carson Wentz (North Dakota State), QB Jared Goff (California), OT Jack Conklin (Michigan State)
Analysis: Since my last update, two major developments have rocked the draft board. First, Jaylon Smith's knee injury has proved to be much more alarming than expected, likely dropping Smith out of the first round entirely and sending him well down the draft board. Second, my personal favorite, Myles Jack, has wowed teams and prognosticators with his crazy skills, sending him flying up draft boards. While this is no surprise to me, it means that Jack is out of consideration.
Much like last time, I assume that a group of players will be gone: OT Laremy Tunsil, DE Joey Bosa, Jack, and S Jalen Ramsey. In this underwhelming class, that's it.
I'm not a fan of Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd, so I have the Bears looking at seven prospects. Either QB (Wentz or Goff) fits. Conklin or Stanley would both make plenty of sense. But the bet here is that Pace goes with one of the defenders, grabbing Robinson or Buckner to bring a pass rush from the edge-setting 3-4 DE spot or Hargreaves to man the #1 CB spot. Because I only like-but-don't-love Hargreaves, I'll state my preference for one of the DEs. If I'm choosing between those two, it's easy.
The Pick: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon)
Second Round (#41 overall)
Possibilities: OLB Shilique Calhoun (Michigan State), CB Mackensie Alexander (Clemson), CB Eli Apple (Ohio State), CB Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), OT Jason Spriggs (Indiana), OT Taylor Decker (Ohio State), TE Hunter Henry (Arkansas)
Analysis: This group is simply defined: a pass rusher, three corners, two tackles, and a tight end since the Saints kept Hill.
My favorite player in the group remains Apple, though any of these players would be a nice addition to the roster. While Fuller would be a nice story being paired with his brother, his injury concerns are significant.
The Pick: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)
Third Round (#72 overall)
Possibilities: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn State), QB Connor Cook (Michigan State), S Vonn Bell (Ohio State), S Jalen Mills (LSU), OT Tyler Johnstone (Oregon)
Analysis: This is definitely the toughest pick of the draft for the Bears. If both quarterbacks are on the board, the front office will be tempted to nab one given their impressive pedigrees and conceivably coachable flaws.
Unfortunately, both safeties represent even bigger needs and similar values.
I still love Mills. I'm not changing this pick until somebody makes me. Given Cook's arm and his pro-style experience, I doubt he makes it quite this far. Accordingly, I'll stick with the safety while acknowledging that I'd probably take Cook over Mills if presented with the opportunity.
The Pick: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
Fourth Round (#106 overall)
Possibilities: ILB Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), OLB Carl Nassib (Penn State), QB Cardale Jones (Ohio State), OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
Analysis: This is another interesting spot.
I think that the front office would jump at Smith if he dropped this far. He's an impact talent if healthy, so even if there's only a 5% chance that he's healthy, the value is simply too strong this far down in the draft. He probably doesn't fall this far. Probably.
Nassib is the definition of a one-year wonder. In 2014, he had seven tackles. In 2015, he had 15.5 sacks even though he missed a quarter of the season with a shoulder injury. He's got more of a classic 4-3 DE build, but he added nearly 60 pounds to his frame in college, so it may be worth examining whether he could shed 10-15 of those to man an OLB spot.
Jones is a flyer on a big-bodied, big-armed, inexperienced quarterback who should have turned pro 14 months ago.
McCalister jumps out at me, too. He's a little undersized and his straight-line speed isn't overwhelming. It's possible than NFL tackles will simply be too big and strong for him to use his pass rushing moves. But I like what I've seen and I think that he could work as a specialist, even as a rookie.
I'm going to assume that Smith is off the board; otherwise, he'd be the pick, risk be damned.
The Pick: OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
Fourth Round (#127 overall)
Possibilities: S Jayron Kearse (Clemson), OT Denver Kirkland (Arkansas), OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA), DE Anthony Zettel (Penn State)
Analysis: The pre-draft process hasn't been particularly kind to Kearse or Zettel which tells me that either player would represent solid value at this juncture: they're better football players than they are testing prospects.
Kirkland was intriguing before but I don't love him. Benenoch, on the other hand, really jumps out to me. He's a perfect reserve as a rookie given that he played both guard and tackle at UCLA. Further, the Combine revealed that while his arms aren't as long as Stanley's or Conklin's, they are comparable to those of Tunsil. That's plenty encouraging and probably worth a flyer.
The Pick: OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA)
Fifth Round (#150 overall)
Possibilities: DE Shawn Oakman (Baylor), RB Devontae Booker (Utah), RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama), RB Kelvin Taylor (Florida), S Elijah Shumate (Notre Dame)
Analysis: Oakman might not be all that good at football, but the chance to take a shot on a 6'9", 280-lbs. DE sure is tempting.
Drake comes with serious injury red flags (multiple broken bones in college) but also the plusses of being (1) incredibly fast and (2) a backup running back from Alabama. Those guys have solid track records. Booker and Taylor are both solid enough as prospects, though neither is as enticing as Drake.
The Pick: RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama)
Sixth Round (#185 overall)
Possibilities: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
Analysis: Jones would still be a great return man, but with Deonte Thompson on board and a league that continually marginalizes the value of returns, perhaps he's not worth it to the Bears. His 40 time and his tiny frame make it tough to employ him as a regular in the defensive backfield. That said, if Jones is available, he'll be a great pick here.
The Pick: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
Sixth Round (#206 overall)
Possibilities: NT Antwaun Woods (USC), TE Bryce Williams (East Carolina)
Analysis: Woods would still be a nice get here to backup Goldman. Williams obviously comes with some optimism too, though his speed (or lack thereof) knocks him down a peg or two.
The Pick: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)
Seventh Round (#230 overall)
Possibilities: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
Analysis: If the Bears can still nab Fairbairn here, they should do it and pocket the massive cap savings.
The Pick: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
The complete draft class as listed above would be as follows:
1.011: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon)
2.041: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)
3.072: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
4.106: OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
4.127: OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA)
5.150: RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama)
6.185: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
6.206: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)
7.230: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
FINAL ROSTER With all of that wheeling and dealing - both real and projected - the Bears would find themselves with the following approximate 53-man roster (draftees in italics, free agents in bold, re-signed free agents underlined):
SP (3): Ka'imi Fairbairn, Pat O'Donnell, Patrick Scales
QB (2): Jay Cutler, David Fales
C (1): Hroniss Grasu
G (2): Kyle Long, Matt Slauson
OT (5): Bobby Massie, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje, Caleb Benenoch, Nick Becton
RB (4): Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kenyan Drake
WR (7): Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Deonte Thompson, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy
TE (3): Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Rob Housler
NT (2): Eddie Goldman, Antwaun Woods
DE (6): Akiem Hicks, DeForest Buckner, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, Mitch Unrein, Cornelius Washington
ILB (4): Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Christian Jones, Jonathan Anderson
OLB (4): Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Alex McCalister
CB (6): Kyle Fuller, Tracy Porter, Eli Apple, Bryce Callahan, Cyrus Jones, Sherrick McManis
S (4): Adrian Amos, Jalen Mills, Antrel Rolle, Harold Jones-Quartey
There's no chance of the team keeping seven receivers, with Bellamy as the most likely odd man out given that he has no guaranteed money in his contract. Still, that's not a bad team. Not bad at all.
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