In the final look toward 2015, we get to the most exciting portion of the organization right now: the minor leagues. Things aren't pretty in Chicago, but the organization has added an incredible amount of young talent since the middle of 2011.
Oftentimes the primary contribution a prospect makes to a team - especially a prospect of a major market team - is via the return he nets in a trade. While the Cubs don't figure to be spinning off young talent in the near future, nonetheless the best way to evaluate the contributions prospects might make to the 2015 Cubs is to investigate the entire system, realizing that some will still be Cubs property in two years while some will not. With that in mind, here is a look at the top prospects in the organization with an emphasis on their projection and development timeline. My sources for this writing include a number of written scouting reports, internet videos, and even firsthand viewing of some of the prospects. I will use the 20-80 scouting scale for tools, roughly defined as:
20-25: Very poor
30-35: Well below average
40-45: Below average
50: Average
55: Solid-average
60-65: Plus or above average
70-75: Plus-plus or well above average
80: Outstanding or elite
While most people use power, hit, arm, fielding, and run, I like the idea of throwing in a sixth category: plate discipline. As we have seen with Starlin Castro, a fantastic hit tool can actually be a player's downfall if it gets in the way of developing a mature approach at the plate.
1. SS JAVIER BAEZ
DOB: 12/1/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 195 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 9th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 76 Games @ Daytona (A+), 10 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 378 PA, .264/.328/.522, 6.3% BB%, 24.3% K%, 20 HR, 4 3B, 19 2B, 12 SB
Offensive Profile: Baez's power is extreme. He generates loud contact thanks to a explosive swing. His bat speed is leaps and bounds beyond that of any other minor league player I have ever seen and beyond that of all of the current Cubs major leaguers. His ability to use the entire field is well developed; in the three games I have seen him play, he has a pair of run-scoring hits to the right side. His approach at the plate, while imperfect, is far more advanced than expected for such a young player with a pronounced hitting ability. He has shown a good ability to lay off pitches off of the plate outside in order to get a more hittable pitch, although this skill is still developing. There is some movement in his plate approach, but there are not so many moving parts that it will cause a timing problem down the line and he does not compromise balance with his actions. If he gets pitches in the zone, the crack of the bat resonates throughout the ballpark.
Defensive Profile: Baez undoubtedly has the arm to play on the left side of the infield, regularly turning likely hits into outs with big throws. His fielding is fluid and he is quick enough to get in good position on most balls. Even with maturation of his body and game, he should be able to play an average shortstop.
Red Flags: Overall approach to the game. I expected this problem to be a lack of focus. It isn't. It's more so that he gets overexcited at times, leading to a wild throw or an overaggressive swing. It also isn't that he plays with that level of aggression at all times, with otherwise excellent plate appearances sometimes inexplicably including a horrible chase of a high fastball. As he gets burned on these at higher levels, hopefully he adjusts.
Path to the Majors: With Baez's bat, the path is wide open. He would be best served by completing a full season at Daytona followed by another full season at Tennessee. However, he could push that timeline a bit with better control of his actions. By 2015, Baez could enter spring training with a full-time job in Chicago on the line. I'm not a fan of his early July promotion to Tennessee, but it will present a great challenge to his strike zone judgment.
Overall Projection: Baez could combine 75 power with a 60 hit tool and 50 discipline. He should keep his 65 arm, although his fielding and run won't push much beyond 50. With that complete package, Baez is a middle-of-the-order hitter for a contender if his game continues to develop. His discipline and hit could be lower, but the power is going to carry him. At his peak, he could put up lines of .280/.350/.550 with 10 steals.
2. COF JORGE SOLER
DOB: 2/25/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 215 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 55 Games @ Daytona (A+): 236 PA, .281/.343/.467, 8.9% BB%, 16.1% K%, 8 HR, 1 3B, 13 2B, 5 SB
Offensive Profile: Soler formerly employed a very pronounced load with quite a bit of movement with his hands and a sizable slide step. Thankfully, he has simplified his pre-pitch actions. He is regarded as having an advanced approach at the plate, but he was wildly overaggressive when I saw him, chasing poor pitches well out of the zone on numerous occasions despite assaulting mistake pitches. He already has the physique of a Major Leaguer, and his quick stroke generates very loud contact. His swing is oriented toward generating backspin, leading to plenty of power in his future as he harnesses his strength. He runs well enough that his baserunning should be a strength.
Defensive Profile: This should be a real strength for Soler. He has a huge arm with the chance to be a major asset in right field. He appeared a bit rickety at times while warming up in the field, but every time a ball headed his way, he had great jumps, exhibited good quickness, and took perfect paths.
Red Flags: Missed time and health. Soler missed almost a year of competitive baseball while defecting from Cuba. It was especially important for him to enjoy a full year in 2013. Instead, he is likely to miss the remainder of the minor league regular season with a stress fracture in his shin. As is the nature of a stress fracture, he was obviously playing hurt for some time before finally hitting the shelf. I have some additional concern about his pitch recognition, although the simplification of his approach at the plate should help his pitch recognition and tracking.
Path to the Majors: It seems a foregone conclusion that Soler will participate in the Arizona Fall League and possibly a winter league too. If so, depending on his results, he may find himself starting 2014 in Tennessee despite missed time at Daytona. Still, given the injury, I would be surprised if Soler gets even a cup of coffee in 2014 as he desperately needs the game experience he will miss due to injury in 2013. Unfortunately the gap between what he is and what he could be didn't close much in 2013.
Overall Projection: While the timeline has shifted for Soler, the projection remains largely the same. He should have 65 power, 55 hit, 65 arm, 55 speed, and a 60 glove. I'm hopeful that his discipline comes along for the ride, although it could be slower developing now; it should nonetheless be 50 at worst. If the discipline is real, Soler is a cleanup hitter with strong defense for a contender or a new age 2nd hitter in a lineup with more power but less on-base ability behind him. Soler's peak could be around .275/.370/.530 with 10 steals. Considering that he was playing hurt and still put up good numbers, Soler still has a monster ceiling.
3. CF ALBERT ALMORA
DOB: 4/16/1994 (Age 19)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 180 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 6th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 46 Games @ Kane County (A): 207 PA, .328/.364/.474, 4.3% BB%, 12.1% K%, 3 HR, 3 3B, 13 2B, 4 SB
Offensive Profile: Almora has good skills throughout his offensive toolbox. His hands are very good, leading to great bat speed. He starts with a high leg kick to get to his smooth, line-drive oriented stroke that lacks big power projection but should lead to consistently high batting averages. He has enough speed to steal some bases, but his projection is driven by batting average and an advanced overall feel for the game that offers hope for his ability to develop discipline in his approach.
Defensive Profile: Almora looks to be a center fielder if he progresses as hoped, but he does not have enough speed to be an impact defender there. If the lack of speed forces him to a corner, he should be an elite defender albeit with underwhelming offense.
Red Flags: Athleticism. Whereas Baez has loud, game-changing tools, Almora derives his value from his instincts and understanding of the game. As he climbs through the system, he may struggle to keep up with bigger, faster, and stronger players.
Path to the Majors: Much like Baez, Almora's path is wide open. He will need seasoning to see enough pitches to develop the necessary discipline at the plate. Still, given his advanced game and his presence in a full-season league at 19, Almora could spend 2014 in Daytona, 2015 in Tennessee, and be ready to reach Chicago in late 2015 or early 2016.
Overall Projection: Almora could have a 65 hit, 55 power, 50 run, and a 55 glove. His discipline is a complete wild card at this point as he has shown no ability to walk, but his batting averages have been extreme and he has limited strikeouts. Almora could be an above-average center fielder who is a very good leadoff or 2nd hitter for a contender. He could peak around .300/.355/.460 with 15 stolen bases while playing a good center field.
4. 3B KRIS BRYANT
DOB: 1/4/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'5", 218 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 2nd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: It's all power, all the time. Bryant has an eerily quiet approach at the plate for such a menacing power hitter with a wide base and a minimal load. His smooth, simple actions empower his quick, loft-oriented swing to pack a huge punch. Bryant does not run particularly well and he likely will not hit for a ton of average. While that all may be disappointing, the tradeoff is some of the best power in the game out of a big, strong, and athletic frame.
Defensive Profile: This is trickier o figure. Bryant has a strong arm, but his lack of speed and huge frame limit him to the corners of both the infield and outfield. The hope remains that Bryant's hands make up for any inflexibility and lack of quickness as his body fills out a bit more. If they cannot, he should move well enough to provide average production in an outfield corner.
Red Flags: Collegiate level of competition. Bryant made the right moves outside of his college baseball, making appearances with Team USA. Unfortunately, the level of competition in the West Coast Conference leaves plenty to be desired. As such, Bryant's plate discipline and hit tool may be underdeveloped at his stage. There will also be a ton of strikeouts in his game, so his ability to limit strikeouts will be important.
Path to the Majors: Bryant's path isn't quite as clear as most other prospects. He will spend some time in Boise this year and might even make his way to Kane County if things go well. Given the front office's desire to fully develop prospects before pushing them to the major leagues - Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury (1,155) and Dustin Pedroia (1,216) both receiving over 1,100 minor league plate appearances despite their advanced status - Bryant will likely begin 2014 in Kane County for a brief stint before spending most of the year in Daytona. 2015 is the larger question as his approach at the plate determines whether he spends more time at High-A ball or makes the jump to Tennessee. If his production dictates the latter option, Bryant can reach Chicago by the end of the summer in 2015. The reason for the lack of clarity: if Bryant shows more advanced discipline than expected, he could move very, very quickly, reaching Tennessee by the summer of 2014 and pushing for an MLB job shortly thereafter.
Overall Projection: Bryant's level of athleticism limits his overall potential in that contributions with the glove and on the basepaths are unlikely. Depending on the development of his discipline, Bryant could be a power-hitting machine in the middle-of-the-order for a contender in the 4th or 5th spot of the lineup. At his peak, Bryant could produce .270/.360/.560 lines from third base or a corner outfield spot. His 75+ power could form a power trio with Anthony Rizzo and Baez.
5. SP PAUL BLACKBURN
DOB: 12/4/1993 (Age 19)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 56th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 6 Games/6 Starts @ Boise (A-): 26.0 IP, 19 H, 12 BB (4.15 BB/9), 25 SO (8.65 SO/9), 0 HR, 12 R, 2.42 ERA, 1.94 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Blackburn was drafted as a wiry 160 pounder. In the year since being drafted, Blackburn packed on 30 lbs., significantly improving his ability to handle a starter's workload, and there still figures to be a bit more room to grow. Blackburn absolutely has the size to stick as a starter, maintaining velocity deep into games as he develops. He uses a high leg kick before compacting his body to explode forward.
Pitch Profile: Blackburn's fastball works in the low-90s and, given his age and size, could improve a bit more. He also works with a curveball and a changeup.
Red Flags: Age. Blackburn does not currently have any glaring weaknesses to his game, but at 19, he has all of his professional development standing between him and Chicago. There are so many things that need to go well.
Path to the Majors: Blackburn is the top pitching prospect in a system bereft of high-end arms. As such, the organization is begging for him to develop. He will get his first full season of game action in 2014. Seeing as his body will probably be filled out by then, he could move a bit more quickly than most high schoolers. He could be in Chicago by late 2016.
Overall Projection: Blackburn lacks any elite offerings, but he has the other tools necessary to be a mid-rotation starter. He has quite a gap between his current status and that projection, and, as a 19-year-old, there is a tremendous amount to learn about pitchability, sequencing, and command. If things come together, Blackburn can be a good 3rd starter for a playoff team. Blackburn could have a few 30 start seasons with 7-8 K/9 and low walk rates.
6. SS ARISMENDY ALCANTARA
DOB: 10/29/1991 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: S/R. 5'10", 160 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2008
2013 Stats: 92 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 394 PA, .277/.352/.469, 9.9% BB%, 21.8% K%, 13 HR, 2 3B, 23 2B, 22 SB
Offensive Profile: Alcantara lacks a powerful frame, yet that hasn't stopped him from hitting for good power. He has consistently hit for a solid batting average and shown a bit of speed. However, his base stealing ability has erupted in the last year and a half, as has his discipline. Alcantara has shown an increasingly well-rounded game as he continues to climb through the system. He has an absurd amount of pre-pitch movement, bending both knees, wagging the bat a bit, and performing a bizarre, pronounced back-shoulder shrug.
Defensive Profile: Although technically still listed as a shortstop, Alcantara's future is at the keystone. He lacks the profile of Darwin Barney - as does every other second base prospect in the game - but he is athletic enough to cover plenty of ground on the right side.
Red Flags: Size and platoon splits. It is difficult for most 160 pounders to make it in the Majors. Alcantara moves well enough to survive, but it is very hard to generate powerful contact from that frame. Perhaps more frightening, Alcantara has an outrageous platoon split, punishing right-handed pitching and flailing versus lefties. Scrapping hitting from the right side would be an enormous change.
Path to the Majors: With Starlin Castro seemingly immovable at shortstop despite big struggles and Darwin Barney an everyday starter, Alcantara will likely be allowed to finish this year at Tennessee before jumping to Iowa for 2014. Barney figures to move on in the next year, so Alcantara will likely get his shot if he keeps producing.
Overall Projection: As a relative newcomer on the prospect scene, Alcantara is a bit tougher to peg. He has shown such improvement over the past 15 months at higher levels, it would be a quite a surprise if he didn't get a chance to perform at the highest level. With limited information, I think Alcantara could be an average second baseman with 50 power, 50 hit, 50 discipline, 60 speed, and 55 glove. As such, he could be an adequate 2nd hitter on a good team or a tremendous option in the 7th or 8th spot of an excellent lineup. He isn't going to be a great player, but he does so many things well that he could be a nice piece out of a less traditional frame. He could peak at .270/.330/.425 with 20 steals.
7. COF ELOY JIMENEZ
DOB: 11/27/1996 (Age 16)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 200 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: Jimenez has a pretty, compact stroke as a 16-year-old. He already has the athletic build to develop into a good producer who hits for power and a good average. Although he currently runs well, he may not do so if he adds 20-30 pounds to his frame, even if it is good weight.
Defensive Profile: His arm is strong currently and should play well enough for him to man right field very effectively. Again, his speed is currently such that he could play center field but he figures to end up in a corner in the future. As he adds weight, his defensive profile will take a hit although his arm should remain an asset.
Red Flags: Age, identity, and contract. Jimenez is only 16, so there is a chasm between him now and his Major League version. Coming from the wild west of Latin America, there are always identity verification concerns. Finally, Jimenez is yet to formally sign, likely a formality as the Cubs seek to obtain more international bonus pool space. Still, the lack of a contract left me reluctant to include him on this list.
Path to the Majors: Jimenez cannot begin playing professionally until the 2014 season. I expect that he will make his U.S. debut in 2015, followed by a full season debut in 2016. Beyond that, any projection seems ridiculous. For reference sake, assuming one level at a time once playing full season ball, Jimenez would spend 2017 in Daytona, 2018 in Tennessee, and 2019 in Iowa/Chicago.
Overall Projection: Jimenez very much elicits thoughts of Soler, albeit with a bit less power in his projection. He can reach a 60 power, 60 hit, 50 run, 60 throw, and 50 field. Discipline is rare among Latin American teenagers, so a 40 seems cautiously optimistic there. If Jimenez pans out, he can be a good option in the 4th or 5th spot of a contending lineup where his power and hit are more valuable and any lacking on-base skills are less problematic. Jimenez has the kind of projection to hit .285/.345/.500 with 10 stolen bases and strong defense.
8. SP BEN WELLS
DOB: 9/10/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 220 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 220th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2010
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 97.2 IP, 82 H, 30 BB (2.76 BB/9), 63 SO (5.81 SO/9), 6 HR (0.55 HR/9), 43 R, 3.32 ERA, 2.41 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Wells has the classic sinkerballer frame as the 220 lbs. listing weight is almost certainly a bit light. He still has some baby fat on his frame, but he definitely has the kind of frame that can handle a big workload.
Pitch Profile: Like the physique, Wells has the classic sinkerballer's arsenal. He features a low-90s, hard-sinking fastball that generates tons of ground balls. He throws a low-80s slider, and complements the pair with a sinking changeup as well. Although Wells does not generate strikeouts with his pitches, he successfully generates the ground ball contact he seeks and limits home runs.
Red Flags: Health and contract. Wells suffered an elbow injury that limited him to just eight starts in the Midwest League in 2012. More frightening, Wells has a contractual clause requiring him to be added to the team's 40-man roster in 2013. His success thus far should make this decision an easy one.
Path to the Majors: Wells received a very aggressive assignment in 2013, moving to Daytona after just 44 innings at A ball. He hasn't disappointed, continuing to limit walks and home runs while generating on-the-ground contact. He may reach Tennessee late in 2013, and he should certainly spend the 2014 campaign there. If things continue to go well, he just might find himself in Chicago at some point in 2014 and very likely will attend spring training in 2015 with an MLB job on the line.
Overall Projection: Still true to the sinkerballer mold, Wells doesn't have the sexiest projection. He won't strike out many Major League hitters and he isn't going to light up the radar gun. What he will do is throw a boatload of average innings, requiring strong infield defense behind him. Wells can be a good 4th or superb 5th starter for a contender, eating regular season innings but not figuring into a playoff rotation. He should have some 200 inning seasons where he limits walks and home runs while rolling boatloads of double plays.
9. UTIL JUNIOR LAKE
DOB: 3/27/1990 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 215 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2007
2013 Stats: 40 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 170 PA, .295/.341/.462, 5.9% BB%, 19.4% K%, 4 HR, 2 3B, 10 2B, 14 SB
Offensive Profile: Lake has quieted his approach some at the plate, although he still holds his bat over his shoulder at a downward angle pointing toward the ground before cocking the bat to load for his swing. This kind of unnecessary movement can make his timing appear off. Regardless, Lake has shown an improved hit tool over the last few years in addition to showing solid power, decent discipline, and great speed. A slowly developing prospect, Lake appears to have put his game together offensively.
Defensive Profile: Defense is another story. Lake is a mess with the glove and he is yet to find a defensive home. The former shortstop was nominally moved to third base this offseason but seems destined for an outfield location where his athleticism and big arm can make up for whatever fluidity issues are present in his game.
Red Flags: Defense. Lake has already shown enough with the bat and on the basepaths to warrant a look at the next level. His glove may be his downfall.
Path to the Majors: A stress fracture of the rib delayed Lake's start to the 2013 campaign, but he made the jump to Iowa and kept on hitting and running. Lake should reach Chicago in August or September this year with a shot to win a bench job next year.
Overall Projection: It's hard to project a homeless player. Lake should look to Tampa Bay's Ben Zobrist for inspiration, a player without a true defensive home whose offensive abilities and athleticism enable him to be one of the great assets in the game. Lake could have a 55 hit, 50 power, 65 run, 30 glove, 55 arm, and a 30 discipline. The holes in his game are pronounced. But so are the pluses. As a result, Lake figures to be a great utilityman and bench bat on a contending team who gets between 300 and 400 plate appearances each year. He will get his first crack at proving that tonight.
10. SP PIERCE JOHNSON
DOB: 5/10/1991 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 170 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 43rd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 13 Games/13 Starts @ Kane County (A), 4 Games/4 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 91.2 IP, 89 H, 30 BB (2.95 BB/9), 92 SO (9.03 SO/9), 5 HR (0.49 HR/9), 36 R, 3.04 ERA, 1.08 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Johnson's wiry frame is currently a liability. He has the ability to add some weight to his body, but at 22, it seems doubtful that he will ever push his way up near 200 lbs. As he currently stands, his frame wears down quickly in games with his fastball velocity dropping three miles per hour just four innings deep when I saw him. His fastball command similarly begins to waver. There just aren't a lot of 170 lbs. starting pitchers at the highest level, so Johnson desperately needs to add weight to his frame to avoid a shift to the bullpen.
Pitch Profile: He has a very smooth, repeatable delivery that enables him to easily work at 92 with a bit of arm-side run. He doesn't appear to have much more velocity on the pitch, although he has been clocked as high as 95. While his fastball is good but not special, his 11-to-5 curveball has a chance to be a big pitch for him. Thrown in the low-80s, Johnson is fearless with the offering working it in all counts to all hitters in all locations. His changeup clearly lags behind the first two offerings, and he currently lacks the confidence to use it versus left-handed batters in key situations.
Red Flags: Size and health. As mentioned above, Johnson needs to find a way to add size to his frame so he can last deeper into outings. As for his health, the Cubs were only able to select him in the 2012 draft because he fell due to concerns about a forearm injury. He has been healthy as a professional and he needs his innings to work on the changeup and to build arm strength.
Path to the Majors: Although he is already 22, Johnson looks to need quite a bit more seasoning. I expect him to start 2014 at Daytona before a mid-season jump to Tennessee. Then in 2015, he will likely spend most of the year in a minor leagues before a late-season look in Chicago. The timeline changes drastically if he is moved to the bullpen.
Overall Projection: Johnson is very difficult for me to peg right now. His fastball-curveball combination is enough to make him an average Major League starter provided that he develops a usable changeup and packs on some pounds. But the frame is not built for him to add much size and the changeup isn't close. He could end up with a 55 fastball, 60 curveball, and a 45 changeup. As such, I think the goofy righty who hops over the foul line and wears his socks up high has an equal chance of being a great 4th starter or ending up in the bullpen as a nice setup arm who relies a bit more on pitchability and a bit less on stuff than most of his relief peers.
11. SP KYLE HENDRICKS
DOB: 12/7/1989 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 264th overall by Texas Rangers in 2011; traded with 3B Christian Villanueva to Chicago Cubs for SP Ryan Dempster in 2012
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 106.1 IP, 90 H, 24 BB (2.03 BB/9), 85 SO (7.19 SO/9), 3 HR (0.25 HR/9), 29 R, 2.03 ERA, 1.74 GO/AO
Physical Profile: The Professor, a Dartmouth alumnus, has a lanky frame with just enough meat on it to stick as a starter. His simple, classic, overhand delivery places very little stress on his body.
Pitch Profile: None of Hendricks's pitches inspire much confidence. He works in the high-80s with his fastball and complements the heater with a diverse arsenal including a strong changeup, a relatively new cutter, and a curveball. Again, by themselves, none of the pitches stand out. But Hendricks's command and control are among the best around. Repeatable mechanics and well-placed offerings are his calling card.
Red Flags: Velocity. By working in the high-80s, Hendricks severely limits his margin for error. In order to make it at the highest level, his command and control both need to remain superb against tougher competition.
Path to the Majors: Hendricks is in the midst of a marvelous campaign at AA Tennessee. As openings arise in the Chicago rotation, he could get a look as soon as September to see if he has enough command to make his game work in the Show. At the very worst, he should get a look at the end of the summer of 2014.
Overall Projection: While command and control aren't sexy like velocity and movement, Hendricks may actually be the best bet of any Cubs pitching prospect to find his way into a Major League rotation. Hendricks owns an incredible 1.45 BB/9 over the first 279.2 innings of his professional career. Despite skipping full-season A ball, Hendricks hasn't missed a beat, enjoying great results at every level while issuing few walks and limiting home runs against increasingly advanced hitters. While the lack of power stuff limits his ceiling, Hendricks should be a good 4th starter or an excellent 5th option for a contender.
12. 1B DAN VOGELBACH
DOB: 12/17/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/R. 6'0", 250 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 68th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 91 Games @ Kane County (A): 401 PA, .284/.352/.449, 10.0% BB%, 15.2% K%, 14 HR, 0 3B, 17 2B, 4 SB
Offensive Profile: Vogelbach has huge power, arguably among the best in the minor leagues. Everything in his game is oriented toward generating big contact with plenty of extra-base hits flowing as a result. His hitting approach is advanced enough that he should hit for high average and draw plenty of walks. The offensive upside is immense. His pre-pitch motions are numerous with a pronounced stride and a huge load with his hands. He is among the slowest professional players.
Defensive Profile: He doesn't have one. Nominally a first baseman, Vogelbach is a pure designated hitter at the highest level. He is too big to make even the limited athletic plays required by a first baseman.
Red Flags: Body and defense. Vogelbach seems to have done a very nice job converting fat into muscle as a professional, and he already looks more athletic than just large. However, his conditioning will always be a concern. More importantly, his defensive profile will limit him to the 15 American League teams assuming the bat develops.
Path to the Majors: Vogelbach will be a methodically developed prospect, going one level at a time. As such, he should spend 2014 in Daytona, 2015 in Tennessee, and 2016 figuring out where to play in the Major Leagues.
Overall Projection: Vogelbach is the rare player that lives on the extremes of the scouting scale with future 75 power, 65 hit, and 70 discipline offset by 20 run, 30 glove, and an arm that won't matter. At his peak, Vogelbach can be among the best designated hitters in baseball. His makeup is highly regarded to the extent that, even with his body, he can headline a trade for a big player.
13. SP DUANE UNDERWOOD
DOB: 7/20/1994 (Age 18)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 205 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 67th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 6 Games/6 Starts @ Boise (A-): 25.0 IP, 34 H, 13 BB (4.68 BB/9), 19 SO (6.84 SO/9), 3 HR (1.08 HR/9), 23 R, 6.12 ERA, 1.64 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Underwood is still maturing physically, but at his peak, he should settle around 220 lbs., giving him a classic power physique. His delivery involves a lot of effort and likely puts a good amount of stress on his arm. With some mechanical refinement and additional strength, he should be well equipped to handle a starter's load.
Pitch Profile: It all starts with Underwood's huge fastball that features a bit of sink and hits in the mid-90s. As he develops, the fastball should settle in the low-to-mid-90s making it a true plus-plus offering. His curveball and changeup, on the other hand, have a long way to go. His only breaking pitch works in the mid-70s, something that professional hitters will exploit. As such, he may need to add a slider in order to stick as a rotation possibility. His pitches have a long way to go, but the fastball is real.
Red Flags: Age and experience. While it is a good thing that Underwood was drafted at 17, it also means that he is a long way from reaching physical maturity. Further, the young righty has only a few dozen innings of professional experience, leaving him with hundreds of innings of minor league pitching ahead of him. There's just a lot that can go wrong, especially with a high intensity delivery.
Path to the Majors: It will be long and slow. Underwood will go one step at a time spending 2014 in Kane County, 2015 in Daytona, 2016 in Tennessee, and finally pushing for a job in Chicago in 2017 assuming everything goes as planned. Any hiccups along the way will postpone that arrival date.
Overall Projection: Like most teenagers, Underwood is extremely difficult to project given the limited body of information and the immense growth still to come. He really just needs to pitch a lot and develop consistency with his offerings. His ceiling is through the roof, but the most likely positive outcome for Underwood is that of an excellent 3rd starter for a contender or a back-of-the-bullpen reliever.
14. SS GLEYBER TORRES
DOB: 12/3/1996 (Age 16)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 170 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: Torres features a big leg kick and plenty of hand movement to get into hitting position. However, once he gets there, he has a strong, compact stroke that enables him to spray hard contact all over the field. He doesn't run well now, and as he adds weight, it is highly unlikely that he gets any quicker.
Defensive Profile: Torres has a strong arm, certainly strong enough to play on the left side of the infield. Unfortunately, he has a strange throwing motion that engages the entire right side of his torso in one connected motion to generate this power, leaving me to question his ability to maintain his power with a quick release. I believe Torres ultimately ends up at second base where he should be a plus defender.
Red Flags: Age and advancement. Torres is only 16, so he has a long development in front of him. Strangely, because his game is so advanced for his age, some scouts worry that he may not have as much room to grow as a number of his peers. Torres has already signed his contract, so that is not a concern.
Path to the Majors: Like Jimenez, Torres will not start his professional career until 2014. Given his level of advancement, he will likely make his U.S. debut to end 2014 with a full season league in 2015. If his ceiling drops but his game adds polish, he could move very quickly, pushing for a Major League job around 2017.
Overall Projection: Torres could be a non-first base infielder with 60 power and 60 hit. Without game experience, evaluating his discipline is essentially impossible, although his advanced approach suggests that this will come. With below-average speed but as an above-average fielder with plus offense, Torres can be an excellent 2nd or 6th hitter for a contender.
15. RP ARODYS VIZCAINO
DOB: 11/13/1990 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by New York Yankees in 2007; traded with Melky Cabrera and Mike Dunn to Atlanta Braves for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan in 2009; traded with Jaye Chapman to Chicago Cubs for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson in 2012
2013 Stats: N/A
Physical Profile: Vizcaino's main problem. While he has the stuff of a very good starting pitcher, his body has been unable to handle the amount of force his arsenal generates with multiple elbow surgeries in the past two years. Given his stature, Vizcaino is realistically limited to a bullpen role.
Pitch Profile: His pitches are still exciting with his electric fastball routinely coming in above 95 in relief appearances. In addition to his plus-plus fastball, he owns a plus power curveball. While he has thrown a changeup and a slider in the past and could still work to develop the offerings, the excellent fastball-curveball combination is his calling card.
Red Flags: Injury. Vizcaino was on the fast track to stardom, reaching the Major Leagues at 20 as a top-50 prospect in baseball. Since then, he hasn't thrown a pitch in a game.
Path to the Majors: There are two very different paths for Vizcaino, although both involve him participating in fall and winter leagues this year. If the Cubs are committed to stretching him out as a starter and developing his changeup, he will spend most or all of 2014 in Iowa. If they seek to use his power arsenal to fill the voids in the back end of the bullpen, Vizcaino may very well reach Chicago very early in 2014 despite having missed consecutive seasons.
Overall Projection: Even with the injury history, Vizcaino still has a big future. Any time a pitcher combines a 75 fastball with a 65 curveball, things are looking good. While his command will need time to return, Vizcaino should be a good closing option for a contender or at worst an excellent setup reliever.
16. CF BRETT JACKSON
DOB: 8/2/1988 (Age 24)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/R. 6'2", 220 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 31st overall by Chicago Cubs in 2009
2013 Stats: 61 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 242 PA, .223/.300/.367, 8.7% BB%, 31.8% K%, 6 HR, 3 3B, 7 2B, 7 SB
Offensive Profile: Any evaluation of Jackson comes with the caveat that he revamped his swing and approach in the offseason. As of the end of 2012, he had a quiet stance with his hands near the uniform logo before a complicated load into the hitting position with a noticeable leg kick and hand load. Jackson has been the poster child for athletic three true outcomes hitters with an extremely high number of strikeouts, buckets of walks, and good power. Despite having consistently strong BABIPs, Jackson's strikeouts will always limit his batting average and thus his on-base ceiling. His speed and base stealing ability are above-average.
Defensive Profile: Jackson has a very similar defensive profile to David DeJesus, although Jackson's is better thanks to his speed. He covers enough ground to play center field, although not an elite level. He also has enough of an arm to be a good corner outfielder, but it isn't a plus tool in a corner. Wherever he plays, Jackson is above-average with a chance for a bit more but no chance to be elite.
Red Flags: Strikeouts and disappearance. The strikeouts have stalled Jackson's career with a chance to kill it. More alarmingly, he appears to have disappeared from the Iowa Cubs for a number of weeks this year. Although the Chicago Tribune reported that he will report to Arizona to rehabilitate a leg injury before regaining confidence at Tennessee, the Iowa manager did not know of Jackson's whereabouts for a few weeks before the report. Clearly there is some concern about his relations with Iowa management.
Path to the Majors: Despite having already reached the Majors, Jackson actually has a good bit of development in front of him. He is athletic enough with plenty of baseball skills to be an above-average MLB starter. However, his strikeouts necessitated a revised approach at the plate and he needs repetitions. Even if the Cubs bring in a big free agent outfielder this offseason, Jackson should get a crack at winning a job if he can prove that he is still mentally engaged.
Overall Projection: Jackson's ceiling has plummeted over the last 12 months, tumbling from a likely above-average starter into the unknown. He still shows 55 power, 60 speed, 60 glove, and 60 discipline, but his hit tool may be in the 30 range. At this point, Jackson will probably be a strikeout-heavy reserve outfielder who adds extra value with his speed and defense. He's still likely a nice player to have around; it's just that the star ceiling that seemed reachable just two years ago is now a forgotten dream.
17. CF JACOB HANNEMANN
DOB: 4/29/1991 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/L. 6'1", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 75th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 11 Games @ Boise (A-): 51 PA, .280/.294/.480, 2.0% BB%, 13.7% K%, 1 HR, 2 3B, 3 2B, 1 SB
Offensive Profile: Hannemann is very smooth and fluid at the plate. He has a compact stroke that enables him to make consistent contact while limiting his power. However, his frame and physicality are such that I wouldn't be surprised if the team elongated his swing a tiny bit in order to take advantage of his power potential. He is a great runner who should steal plenty of bases.
Defensive Profile: Hannemann's glove and his arm are diametrically opposed. He has more than enough speed to be a plus defender in center field, yet he has a subpar arm so he'll need to stay there.
Red Flags: Age and experience. Hannemann is already 22 in short-season A ball. While his reason is plenty understandable - he spent two years immediately after graduating high school on his Mormon mission - it nonetheless puts him well behind the developmental curve. He also missed offseason baseball workouts last year while on scholarship with the BYU football team. While reasonable, it is still lost developmental time.
Path to the Majors: It will be slow. I expect Hannemann to spend full seasons over the next three years at Kane County, Daytona, and Tennessee. He needs the repetitions. Depending on how his age-25 season goes at Tennessee, he could push for some playing time at the end of that year, 2016.
Overall Projection: Let's get one thing out of the way: Hannemann is not Matt Szczur. That isn't intended as a slight of Szczur; the two are just different types of players. Hannemann doesn't run quite as well as Szczur, but there should be much more power in his game. He could end up with a 60 hit, 55 power, 65 run, and 60 glove despite a 40 arm. It's almost impossible to project his discipline given how little baseball he has played, but he seems like a good kid and student, so this facet has a decent chance to develop. If that all comes to fruition, Hannemann will be an above-average center fielder who hits 2nd or 7th for a contender.
18. SP ALBERTO CABRERA
DOB: 10/25/1988 (Age 24)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 210 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2005
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 112.2 IP, 102 H, 39 BB (3.12 BB/9), 107 SO (8.55 SO/9), 10 HR (0.80 HR/9), 41 R, 3.20 ERA, 1.55 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Cabrera has the perfect build and the simple delivery needed to log serious innings. He can get a bit wild at times when reaching back for a little extra, but his frame is ideal.
Pitch Profile: Cabrera's fastball has been his calling card and with good reason. In the bullpen, he works in the mid-90s while he hangs around 92 in the rotation. His slider is a good pitch with the chance to be above-average and he also uses a changeup.
Red Flags: Changed projection. After spending all of 2012 in the bullpen, the organization apparently saw something in Cabrera that warranted another look in a starting job. Although it has been a tremendous success this year, it is bizarre that the team has changed their outlook on him so substantially.
Path to the Majors: After an excellent first half in Tennessee, Cabrera will get a shot to make plenty of starts in Iowa with the possibility of a look in Chicago given that he is already on the 40-man roster. He will have a chance to win a Major League job in Spring Training 2014.
Overall Projection: Cabrera is brutally difficult to peg. He probably ends up in the bullpen thanks to his ability to dial up his fastball, but his success as a starter could still give him a shot to be a swingman. With his arsenal and his developing pitchability, Cabrera should be able to carve out a career in the mold of Carlos Villanueva with more stuff, making plenty of starts but shifting to the bullpen when there is a surplus of starting pitching.
19. SP DILLON MAPLES
DOB: 5/9/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 195 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 429th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 11 Games/7 Starts @ Kane County (A), 1 Game @ Boise (A-): 34.2 IP, 33 H, 34 BB (8.05 BB/9), 34 SO (8.83 SO/9), 1 HR (0.26 HR/9), 37 R, 8.31 ERA, 1.88 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Maples has enough size to stick in a rotation, although he doesn't appear to have added much size since being drafted two summers ago. More troubling, Maples has struggled to make it to the mound, dealing with generic arm injuries thus far.
Pitch Profile: Maples works with a two pitch mix at this point with command lacking on both. He complements a low-90s straight fastball with a sweeping mid-70s curveball.
Red Flags: Injury and experience. Maples needed to pitch to develop his offerings, but vague arm troubles prevented him from doing so for almost two years. As a result, his is still effectively a high schooler on the development curve inching toward Rule V draft eligibility where some team may take a flyer on him.
Path to the Majors: It's a long one still. Despite signing for top-10 money, Maples needs to pitch a ton, so he will finish 2013 back at Boise before a return to Kane County in 2014. Maples is not going to move quickly, so 2015 will be spent in Daytona at which team the team must decide whether to protect him.
Overall Projection: Given the stunted nature of his development thus far, Maples may shift to the bullpen where he can add a few ticks to his fastball and enjoy an uptick in his curveball power as well. His current inability to control either delivery makes projecting him more difficult, but if everything comes together, Maples is a strong back-of-the-bullpen arm.
20. RP JUAN CARLOS PANIAGUA
DOB: 4/4/1990 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'1", 175 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Arizona Diamondbacks in 2009 - contract terminated due to fraudulent paperwork; signed as an international free agent by New York Yankees in 2011 - contract terminated due to falsified documents; signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2012.
2013 Stats: 4 Games/4 Starts @ Dominican Summer League Cubs (DSL), 1 Game/1 Start @ Arizona League Cubs (AZL), 1 Game/1 Start @ Kane County (A): 17.2 IP, 8 H, 6 BB (3.06 BB/9), 19 SO (9.68 SO/9), 0 HR, 3 R, 1.02 ERA, 1.06 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Despite having reached 23 years old due to numerous documentation fiascos, Paniagua still checks in at just 175 lbs. As such, it is nearly impossible to project him as a starting pitching option. He should be able to add a bit of weight and settle into his relief role.
Pitch Profile: It's a shame that Paniagua is of such a slight build because his pitches suggest a starting future. He has a low-90s fastball well complemented by a strong low-80s slider and a similarly useful mid-80s changeup. With command and control, he has a strong starting repertoire.
Red Flags: Identity and experience. Being the third team to sign a player who has twice had his contract voided for identity issues hardly inspires confidence. Plus, as a result of the prior terminations, Paniagua has missed out on years of development time.
Path to the Majors: Despite being 23, Paniagua needs to log lots of innings. While it is possible that he could move relatively quickly, I expect that he will finish out this year in Kane County before spending all of 2014 starting in Daytona. At that point the decision will be made as to his future role with that decision driving the timeline. If he is moved to the bullpen, he could be an in-house addition as early as late 2015.
Overall Projection: Without the identity crisis, might have already worked his way onto an MLB roster. However, because he missed out on years of development and he is undersized, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs are content with developing him as a reliever. If so, Paniagua has the arsenal to be an excellent back-of-the-bullpen arm.
30 MORE IN ONE SENTENCE
21. SP ROB ZASTRYZNY: The 2nd round pick has a lively fastball and an advanced feel for pitching, BUT his curveball has a long way to go.
22. SP TREVOR CLIFTON: The 12th round pick signed for 3rd round money on the strength of a mid-90s fastball, BUT his is very raw, needing to add lots of size.
23. 3B CHRISTIAN VILLANUEVA: Acquired in the Ryan Dempster trade, Villanueva has MLB-caliber defensive chops and good power, BUT his hit tool renders him only a decent prospect.
24. 2B LOGAN WATKINS: A one-level-at-a-time prospect, Watkins has elite discipline and stunning power for a tiny frame, BUT his hit tool is poor and he doesn't bring enough on the basepaths or in the field to make up for it.
25. RP ZACH ROSSCUP: Acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Rosscup has the look of a good lefty reliever, BUT that is also his ceiling.
26. SP ERLING MORENO: Another July 2nd signing, Moreno has a great pitcher's body with a developing repertoire, BUT a tremendously long way to go.
27. 3B JEIMER CANDELARIO: The 19-year-old switch hitter is worth monitoring while holding his own at Kane County, BUT he also hasn't shown any plus tools.
28. COF JOHN ANDREOLI: He can run like the wind and makes regular strong contact, BUT there is no power to his game whatsoever and his speed is probably only a 70 or 75, not 80.
29. SP BARRET LOUX: The former 6th overall selection in 2010 has managed only middling results despite a strong track record, BUT injuries appear to have sapped him of most of his velocity.
30. SP TYLER SKULINA: The imposing 6'6" righty has a strong fastball-curveball combination, BUT his lacking changeup probably limits him to the bullpen.
31. SP JEFFERSON MEJIA: The rare 18-year-old who signed on July 2nd, Mejia already works in the low-90s, BUT his arsenal is underdeveloped and his mechanics need an overhaul.
32. RP FRANK DEL VALLE: The Cuban lefty closer at Daytona has serious heat and a useful curveball, BUT he has largely foundered despite his move from the rotation to the bullpen.
33. RP TREY MCNUTT: The big righty burst onto the prospect scene with a huge 2010 spanning three levels, BUT he hasn't made it past Tennessee despite three full season cracks.
34. RP TONY ZYCH: He has a mid-90s tailing fastball and a good mid-80s slider that should have him pitching in the 7th inning, BUT he is destined for some injury troubles given the violence in his delivery and the 7th inning role is also his ceiling.
35. CF MATT SZCZUR: The former football star at Villanova still runs very well, hits well, and plays a good center field, BUT he brings absolutely no power to the table and doesn't draw enough walks to make up for it.
36. SP AUSTIN KIRK: Dylan Bundy's high school teammate has filled out his lefty frame and features a usable arsenal, BUT he has been pummeled upon reaching Tennessee as a 23-year-old.
37. COF REGGIE GOLDEN: After struggling to get his professional career going, the 21-year-old former 2nd round choice enjoyed an explosive June at Kane County flashing good power and solid hitting ability, BUT he still has numerous holes in his game with an inability to make contact threatening to knock him out completely.
38. 2B WES DARVILL: The lanky Canadian finally enjoyed some success and has flashed some good secondary skills, BUT none of his tools are loud and his power remains absent.
39. 3B JOSH VITTERS: The former 3rd overall selection crushed the Pacific Coast League in 2012 en route to his Major League call up, BUT he never developed his discipline, has middling power, and has been injured for most of his age-23 season.
40. 1B ROCK SHOULDERS: A poor man's Dan Vogelbach with an even better name, Shoulders has big power, an adequate hit tool, and excellent discipline, BUT he strikes out way too much for a bat only player and has no value on defense or the basepaths.
41. RP P.J. FRANCESCON: An intriguing player to me, Francescon has borderline MLB stuff and has produced solid results, BUT his frame is slight and none of his pitches can carry him putting immense pressure on his command.
42. COF ZEKE DEVOSS: DeVoss has superb speed, otherworldly discipline and great defense, BUT he cannot hit and lacks power, especially for a corner outfielder.
43. RP ARMANDO RIVERO: The Cuban bonus baby came with a big arsenal, BUT the results have been horrific thus far for the 25-year-old in A ball.
44. SP ERIC JOKISCH: The big lefty Northwestern alum has climbed the organizational ladder well without much in the way of stuff, BUT he appears to have stalled out at Tennessee.
45. 2B GIOSKAR AMAYA: The 20-year-old Venezuelan has shown across-the-board average skills at Kane County, BUT his strikeout total is off the charts and will stomp out his career without an explosion of power.
46. COF YASIEL BALAGUERT: The hefty Dominican has crushed Northwest League pitching showing power, hit, and discipline, BUT he is a bat-only outfielder without hugely projectable offensive skills.
47. SP JAMES PUGLIESE: The tall righty has shown great improvement during his second attempt at Boise, BUT he is slow on the development curve and does not have an exciting arsenal.
48. 1B DUSTIN GEIGER: Geiger has a pretty well developed offensive approach that enables him to draw walks and make consistent solid contact, BUT his bat will have to carry him with little defensive value and no speed and the bat isn't special enough to do so.
49. RP KYLER BURKE: The former outfielder has succeeded in his transition to the Daytona starting rotation and he has enough with his high-80s fastball to make it as a relief option, BUT his pitches are not special and quickly developing command is his only hope.
50. RP LUIS LIRIA: Liria has a huge, mid-90s fastball, BUT he has never produced and has no command whatsoever.
*NOTE: Since I wrote this list last month and only touched it up to publish, I failed to mention the three players the Cubs have acquired via trade. SP Jake Arrieta isn't a prospect with 63 MLB starts under his belt. RP Pedro Strop also wouldn't make the list due to extensive MLB experience. However, Ivan Pineyro would. So here's a bonus entry that would slot in 36th (after Szczur and before Kirk):
RP IVAN PINEYRO: Currently a starter, the diminutive Pineyro has a strong fastball-changeup combination, BUT his curveball is lacking and his size will prevent him from sticking as a starting pitching possibility.
Friday, July 19, 2013
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
The 2015 Chicago Cubs: 2015 Free Agent Class
2015 MLB Free Agency
In the second of two looks at free agent classes that will impact the 2015 Cubs, we now turn to the winter of 2014-15. 2014 will be a much different year for the club than 2013 with a number of high impact minor leaguers pushing for a September call to the Majors. As a result, the team will have a greater incentive to push for complementary players in view of contending in the 2015 season. With that in mind, here's a look at the targets.
Catcher
Interest Level: Low-to-medium. After the 2014 season, it should be clear whether Welington Castillo can be a competent starter. If he is, a veteran reserve will likely be added. If not, a starter will need to be found given the dearth of catching talent in the system.
The Market: Russell Martin is the big - and only - name. Among the reserves, only David Ross offers much offensive ability and he will be 38 in 2015.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <10%. Castillo should show enough to keep the job.
First Base
Interest Level: None. Did I mention Rizzo's nine year deal in the previous post?
The Market: Kansas City's Billy Butler and Washington's Adam LaRoche both have hefty options for 2015, so at least one of the potential stopgaps should hit the market.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Something catastrophic would need to happen to Rizzo for the Cubs to consider a big move here.
Second Base
Interest Level: High. Provided that the team passes on Robinson Cano and Darwin Barney maintains a sub-.300 OBP, the position needs to be addressed.
The Market: Two big names could hit the market, although the odds are that neither actually does. Dustin Pedroia has a relatively team-friendly option while Rickie Weeks has a slightly pricier mutual option. Barring a hugely disappointing year or a substantial injury, neither player is likely to reach the marketplace.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. I do believe that the second base position will be manned by someone other than Darwin Barney in 2015, but the improvement will be internal.
Third Base
Interest Level: Medium. The hope here is that this spot is also filled internally, be it with continued progress from current third baseman Luis Valbuena or the development of one of the many projectable internal options.
The Market: If the organization can't fill the spot internally, there should be some solid free agent possibilities. San Diego's Chase Headley is currently slated to become a free agent. His combination of superb defense and solid offense will be in high demand. The Dodgers' Hanley Ramirez will hit the market at 31; if he maintains his health and decent production between now and then, he figures to earn a pretty penny. Finally, San Francisco's Kung Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval, will be a free agent at just 28. Sandoval's offensive game has stagnated a bit in recent years, but his solid defensive reputation makes him a good, complete option.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. Given the team's struggles in developing talent at the hot corner since Ran Santo's departure, it is hard to rely on the bevy of internal possibilities. This could be a spot worth watching.
Shortstop
Interest Level: Low. Unless Starlin Castro's .260 OBP persists for the next 15 months - a highly unlikely occurrence - the team simply won't be looking.
The Market: Asdrubal Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, and Jed Lowrie all figure to be in search of long-term commitments when they hit the market. At 29, Cabrera is the most likely candidate to receive such an offer, although Hardy's power bat will have him in high demand.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Even if Castro struggles, the team is committed to him.
Left Field
Interest Level: Extreme. With Alfonso Soriano finally off the books, the team will need to fill the spot he will hold down for eight years.
The Market: Unless the light-hitting, speedy Brett Gardner is your type of left fielder, the free agent marketplace just isn't inspiring. Post-steroids Melky Cabrera and 36-year-old Josh Willingham highlight the group.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. There just isn't a name on which spending makes sense.
Center Field
Interest Level: Medium. It's high at some point in 2014-15, but I think the solution comes a year earlier.
The Market: There are a pair of rather interesting options. First, the mercurial Colby Rasmus hits the market at just 28. Rasmus has wildly underachieved and is regarded as a negative in the clubhouse, but he still has plenty of tools to make an impact and appears to be putting things together. Denard Span has a $9M club option. If the option isn't exercised, he's likely just a reclamation project.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <20%. Rasmus is intriguing, but the clubhouse concern is real.
Right Field
Interest Level: Low. Hopefully this position is handled internally.
The Market: Two players immediately jump out as both have essentially club options that could lead to solid producers nonetheless hitting the market. The Orioles hold a $15.5M net mutual option - almost surely to be exercised by the player - on Nick Markakis, a former on-base machine with a bit of pop and speed whose game has settled down a tier. The White Sox hold a $12.5M net option on Alex Rios, he of excellent defense, great speed, good power, and poor on-base ability. The third intriguing option is Milwaukee's Norichika Aoki. Aoki offers tremendous defense, good speed, strong on-base skills, but little power. None of the options are franchise changing options, but all three should be able to hold down the position if needed.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. If Jorge Soler develops as hoped, he will have the keys to the position by 2015. But if Soler stumbles along the way, any of the free agent option could be appealing to bridge the gap.
Starting Pitcher
Interest Level: Extreme. The system is largely barren, despite my optimism for the uninspiring group that will appear in the next post.
The Market: Even though many of them figure to sign extensions in the next year, as of now a bevy of strong options are slated to hit the market after the 2014 season. The headliner, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, will be just 27 in 15 months, so he will command something north of $25M annually if Los Angeles stuns the baseball world by letting him reach free agency. Beyond Kershaw, Detroit's Max Scherzer, Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, and Cleveland's Justin Masterson figure to set the market. Four less exciting but still solid starters in their 30s figure to seek their last big contracts: Jeff Niemann, Kyle Kendrick, Brandon McCarthy, and Jake Peavy. A quartet of strong but non-elite hurlers have club options for 2015 that will probably be exercised, but might not: Brandon Morrow ($9M net), Johnny Cueto ($9.2M net), Chad Billingsley ($11M net), and Yovani Gallardo ($12.4M). All four come with serious injury concerns yet very high ceilings. Finally, one intriguing reclamation project could interest the Cubs: Oakland's Brett Anderson. Anderson burst onto the scene with 30 strong starts as a 21-year-old in 2009. Since then, he has appeared in just 44 major league games. He does have a $10.5M net club option for 2015, so a strong 2014 likely keeps him in Oakland. If the injuries persist, he could be available at 27.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 90%. The Cubs need pitching and they lack high-level starting pitching prospects in their own system. The willingness of the top names - Kershaw, Scherzer, Bailey, and Masterson - to postpone generational wealth determines what caliber of pitcher the team brings on board.
Relief Pitcher
Interest Level: High. The team still lacks pitching. Many teams fill their bullpen with failed starters; the Cubs don't have enough starting prospects for that route to succeed.
The Market: As is generally the case, plenty of good arms will be on the market. A few solid closing options will be available in Sergio Romo, Jim Johnson, and the mercurial Chris Perez. Other good pitchers like David Robertson, Franklin Morales, and Andrew Bailey will join them. As always, the relief pitching market will be flooded with only a couple of strong closing options.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 80%. The Cubs still need pitching and they figure to add an arm or two again in the 2015 offseason.
A Note on International Free Agents
In light of the Cubs's huge acquisitions in this year's international market, it remains to be seen if they will have enough international bonus pool money for the 2013-14 year to avoid being seriously limited in their ability to make big name signings next summer. I fully expect that the team will acquire at least enough additional pool space for this year to avoid having spending restrictions next year after agreeing to terms with Dominican OF Eloy Jimenez ($2.8M), Venezuelan SS Gleyber Torres ($1.7M), Dominican righty Jefferson Mejia ($850K), Colombian righty Erling Moreno ($650K), and Dominican catcher Johan Matos ($270K) for $6.27M. After trades with Houston, Baltimore, and the Dodgers, the team currently has a pool of $5,520,300. In order to be within 5% of their amount spent - the cutoff where the penalty is only a tax and not restricted spending next year - the team needs to acquire an additional $451,200 of pool space, an eminently achievable feat given the likelihood of multiple remaining marquee trades this month. Regardless of the reality that the Cubs will likely have a top-10 bonus pool again next year, it is extremely difficult for any team to reign in the top two talents from Latin American, let alone to do it back-to-back years. The Cubs will be players again next summer; I just don't expect a haul nearly on par with this year.
Two Free Agent Classes, One Team
Given the team's areas of need and the relative strengths of the free agent classes, I would be very surprised if the team didn't ink at least one of the more prominent starting pitchers and I expect them to grab a pair over those two years. I think there is a decent possibility of the team flipping Matt Garza at this year's trade deadline, then signing him to a new contract in the offseason. If Cincinnati allows Homer Bailey to reach free agency, I think the Cubs will aggressively pursue him in an attempt to strip a rival of a major talent. They will certainly grab at least one relief pitcher over the two classes. There is also a decent possibility of the team grabbing a third baseman, although Luis Valbuena continues to challenge that assumption with strong play. However, the big move will come in the outfield. I expect that the Cubs will sign one of the three big lefties over the two classes: Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, or Shin-Soo Choo. Curtis Granderson represents a risky yet cheaper fallback option. With the major improvements to the offense expected to come from within (see the exciting prospect post that is sitting in my drafts, waiting for me to press "publish" in about a week), multiple offensive additions would be a surprise but one big splash seems likely given the available payroll space and the relatively young talent on which to use it.
In the second of two looks at free agent classes that will impact the 2015 Cubs, we now turn to the winter of 2014-15. 2014 will be a much different year for the club than 2013 with a number of high impact minor leaguers pushing for a September call to the Majors. As a result, the team will have a greater incentive to push for complementary players in view of contending in the 2015 season. With that in mind, here's a look at the targets.
Catcher
Interest Level: Low-to-medium. After the 2014 season, it should be clear whether Welington Castillo can be a competent starter. If he is, a veteran reserve will likely be added. If not, a starter will need to be found given the dearth of catching talent in the system.
The Market: Russell Martin is the big - and only - name. Among the reserves, only David Ross offers much offensive ability and he will be 38 in 2015.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <10%. Castillo should show enough to keep the job.
First Base
Interest Level: None. Did I mention Rizzo's nine year deal in the previous post?
The Market: Kansas City's Billy Butler and Washington's Adam LaRoche both have hefty options for 2015, so at least one of the potential stopgaps should hit the market.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Something catastrophic would need to happen to Rizzo for the Cubs to consider a big move here.
Second Base
Interest Level: High. Provided that the team passes on Robinson Cano and Darwin Barney maintains a sub-.300 OBP, the position needs to be addressed.
The Market: Two big names could hit the market, although the odds are that neither actually does. Dustin Pedroia has a relatively team-friendly option while Rickie Weeks has a slightly pricier mutual option. Barring a hugely disappointing year or a substantial injury, neither player is likely to reach the marketplace.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. I do believe that the second base position will be manned by someone other than Darwin Barney in 2015, but the improvement will be internal.
Third Base
Interest Level: Medium. The hope here is that this spot is also filled internally, be it with continued progress from current third baseman Luis Valbuena or the development of one of the many projectable internal options.
The Market: If the organization can't fill the spot internally, there should be some solid free agent possibilities. San Diego's Chase Headley is currently slated to become a free agent. His combination of superb defense and solid offense will be in high demand. The Dodgers' Hanley Ramirez will hit the market at 31; if he maintains his health and decent production between now and then, he figures to earn a pretty penny. Finally, San Francisco's Kung Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval, will be a free agent at just 28. Sandoval's offensive game has stagnated a bit in recent years, but his solid defensive reputation makes him a good, complete option.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. Given the team's struggles in developing talent at the hot corner since Ran Santo's departure, it is hard to rely on the bevy of internal possibilities. This could be a spot worth watching.
Shortstop
Interest Level: Low. Unless Starlin Castro's .260 OBP persists for the next 15 months - a highly unlikely occurrence - the team simply won't be looking.
The Market: Asdrubal Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, and Jed Lowrie all figure to be in search of long-term commitments when they hit the market. At 29, Cabrera is the most likely candidate to receive such an offer, although Hardy's power bat will have him in high demand.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Even if Castro struggles, the team is committed to him.
Left Field
Interest Level: Extreme. With Alfonso Soriano finally off the books, the team will need to fill the spot he will hold down for eight years.
The Market: Unless the light-hitting, speedy Brett Gardner is your type of left fielder, the free agent marketplace just isn't inspiring. Post-steroids Melky Cabrera and 36-year-old Josh Willingham highlight the group.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. There just isn't a name on which spending makes sense.
Center Field
Interest Level: Medium. It's high at some point in 2014-15, but I think the solution comes a year earlier.
The Market: There are a pair of rather interesting options. First, the mercurial Colby Rasmus hits the market at just 28. Rasmus has wildly underachieved and is regarded as a negative in the clubhouse, but he still has plenty of tools to make an impact and appears to be putting things together. Denard Span has a $9M club option. If the option isn't exercised, he's likely just a reclamation project.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <20%. Rasmus is intriguing, but the clubhouse concern is real.
Right Field
Interest Level: Low. Hopefully this position is handled internally.
The Market: Two players immediately jump out as both have essentially club options that could lead to solid producers nonetheless hitting the market. The Orioles hold a $15.5M net mutual option - almost surely to be exercised by the player - on Nick Markakis, a former on-base machine with a bit of pop and speed whose game has settled down a tier. The White Sox hold a $12.5M net option on Alex Rios, he of excellent defense, great speed, good power, and poor on-base ability. The third intriguing option is Milwaukee's Norichika Aoki. Aoki offers tremendous defense, good speed, strong on-base skills, but little power. None of the options are franchise changing options, but all three should be able to hold down the position if needed.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. If Jorge Soler develops as hoped, he will have the keys to the position by 2015. But if Soler stumbles along the way, any of the free agent option could be appealing to bridge the gap.
Starting Pitcher
Interest Level: Extreme. The system is largely barren, despite my optimism for the uninspiring group that will appear in the next post.
The Market: Even though many of them figure to sign extensions in the next year, as of now a bevy of strong options are slated to hit the market after the 2014 season. The headliner, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, will be just 27 in 15 months, so he will command something north of $25M annually if Los Angeles stuns the baseball world by letting him reach free agency. Beyond Kershaw, Detroit's Max Scherzer, Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, and Cleveland's Justin Masterson figure to set the market. Four less exciting but still solid starters in their 30s figure to seek their last big contracts: Jeff Niemann, Kyle Kendrick, Brandon McCarthy, and Jake Peavy. A quartet of strong but non-elite hurlers have club options for 2015 that will probably be exercised, but might not: Brandon Morrow ($9M net), Johnny Cueto ($9.2M net), Chad Billingsley ($11M net), and Yovani Gallardo ($12.4M). All four come with serious injury concerns yet very high ceilings. Finally, one intriguing reclamation project could interest the Cubs: Oakland's Brett Anderson. Anderson burst onto the scene with 30 strong starts as a 21-year-old in 2009. Since then, he has appeared in just 44 major league games. He does have a $10.5M net club option for 2015, so a strong 2014 likely keeps him in Oakland. If the injuries persist, he could be available at 27.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 90%. The Cubs need pitching and they lack high-level starting pitching prospects in their own system. The willingness of the top names - Kershaw, Scherzer, Bailey, and Masterson - to postpone generational wealth determines what caliber of pitcher the team brings on board.
Relief Pitcher
Interest Level: High. The team still lacks pitching. Many teams fill their bullpen with failed starters; the Cubs don't have enough starting prospects for that route to succeed.
The Market: As is generally the case, plenty of good arms will be on the market. A few solid closing options will be available in Sergio Romo, Jim Johnson, and the mercurial Chris Perez. Other good pitchers like David Robertson, Franklin Morales, and Andrew Bailey will join them. As always, the relief pitching market will be flooded with only a couple of strong closing options.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 80%. The Cubs still need pitching and they figure to add an arm or two again in the 2015 offseason.
A Note on International Free Agents
In light of the Cubs's huge acquisitions in this year's international market, it remains to be seen if they will have enough international bonus pool money for the 2013-14 year to avoid being seriously limited in their ability to make big name signings next summer. I fully expect that the team will acquire at least enough additional pool space for this year to avoid having spending restrictions next year after agreeing to terms with Dominican OF Eloy Jimenez ($2.8M), Venezuelan SS Gleyber Torres ($1.7M), Dominican righty Jefferson Mejia ($850K), Colombian righty Erling Moreno ($650K), and Dominican catcher Johan Matos ($270K) for $6.27M. After trades with Houston, Baltimore, and the Dodgers, the team currently has a pool of $5,520,300. In order to be within 5% of their amount spent - the cutoff where the penalty is only a tax and not restricted spending next year - the team needs to acquire an additional $451,200 of pool space, an eminently achievable feat given the likelihood of multiple remaining marquee trades this month. Regardless of the reality that the Cubs will likely have a top-10 bonus pool again next year, it is extremely difficult for any team to reign in the top two talents from Latin American, let alone to do it back-to-back years. The Cubs will be players again next summer; I just don't expect a haul nearly on par with this year.
Two Free Agent Classes, One Team
Given the team's areas of need and the relative strengths of the free agent classes, I would be very surprised if the team didn't ink at least one of the more prominent starting pitchers and I expect them to grab a pair over those two years. I think there is a decent possibility of the team flipping Matt Garza at this year's trade deadline, then signing him to a new contract in the offseason. If Cincinnati allows Homer Bailey to reach free agency, I think the Cubs will aggressively pursue him in an attempt to strip a rival of a major talent. They will certainly grab at least one relief pitcher over the two classes. There is also a decent possibility of the team grabbing a third baseman, although Luis Valbuena continues to challenge that assumption with strong play. However, the big move will come in the outfield. I expect that the Cubs will sign one of the three big lefties over the two classes: Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, or Shin-Soo Choo. Curtis Granderson represents a risky yet cheaper fallback option. With the major improvements to the offense expected to come from within (see the exciting prospect post that is sitting in my drafts, waiting for me to press "publish" in about a week), multiple offensive additions would be a surprise but one big splash seems likely given the available payroll space and the relatively young talent on which to use it.
Monday, July 1, 2013
The 2015 Chicago Cubs: 2014 Free Agent Class
In the first part of my look into the future, I focused on the current Chicago Cubs and their expected contributions to the 2015 squad, be they as a member of the team, as a trade candidate returning value to the organization, or by simply vacating a roster spot to be occupied by a superior player. In this part, I'll take a look at the two free agent classes between now and Opening Day in 2015, evaluating the two classes separately first, then speculating as to how they might function in concert with each other. Installment one will focus on the 2014 class while installment two will cover the 2015 class and how the two offseasons will work in concert.
Generally speaking, free agency functions best as a means for a team to plug a hole, as a supplement to an almost-complete roster. However, free agency can also be the spur that kicks an otherwise dormant club into contention, much like it did with the worst-to-first 2007 Cubs which acquired Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis in the same offseason. Much more generally speaking, free agency is a way to add talent at the cost of only one resource: cash. While trades require surrendering talent in order to obtain talent, free agency - be it domestic or international (in particular, for those over 23 who do not count against a team's international bonus pool allotment) - represents an incredible opportunity, especially for wealthy clubs, to acquire talent for only their most plentiful resource.
Finally, it is important to remember that the Cubs are unlikely to contend in 2014. While a team with lofty aspirations in 2014 could justify paying the price on the back end of a long-term contract - much like the 2007 Cubs did with Alfonso Soriano in an extreme fashion - a non-contender has a difficult time justifying such a move. As a result, older free agents are much less likely to figure into the equation, even if they represent the best value on the market. For example, a player like Roy Oswalt is likely to offer a lot of value at a low cost, but Oswalt and the Cubs are a poor fit. With that in mind, here is a look at the 2014 class.
2014 MLB Free Agency
Although the 2014 class is notable for the elite pitchers that will not reach the market, including Cole Hamels and Adam Wainwright, a handful of prime players will nonetheless negotiate their way to generational wealth. Here is a position-by-position look at the Cubs' interest in possible new players.
Catcher
Interest Level: Low. With Welington Castillo entrenched as the everyday man and with all indications suggesting that he will have another year to prove himself worthy of the distinction, the team will be on the lookout only for a Dioner Navarro-type, a decent defender with a bat on which to dream a bit who can be flipped if successful.
The Market: Ironically, Geovany Soto could fit the bill, as could Miguel Olivo.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. There is room for a notable improvement, but the market is lacking.
First Base
Interest Level: None. Anthony Rizzo just signed a nine-year extension. It's really low.
The Market: Milwaukee's Corey Hart is coming off an injury but he can produce well if healthy enough to play. Mike Napoli doesn't have a true defensive position. Kendrys Morales has a well-rounded but unspectacular offensive game. The big fish would have been Justin Morneau had injuries not sapped his game.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Rizzo has the keys.
Second Base
Interest Level: High. I am very confident that the front office would like to upgrade the second base position. Darwin Barney is a useful player, an ideal backup middle infielder. However, he is overmatched as a full-time starter as evidenced by a putrid career .303 OBP and no power. Even though his defense is genuinely elite, the club needs to find some offense.
The Market: Robinson Cano is technically the biggest catch on the whole market. I say technically because very few people believe that the Yankees will actually allow him to remain free into the free agency period. However, it is possible that the sides are far enough apart that he could remain unattached into November. 32-year-old Omar Infante looks to have a couple of strong seasons left with average offense and strong defense. 35-year-old Chase Utley is an intriguing possibility showing great defense and very good offense. However, Utley seems unlikely to depart Philadelphia as a career-long Phillie, and his price tag could make him too risky given his age and extensive injury history.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 25%. Cano would obviously be the biggest name, but I expect the Cubs to pass on him even if he is available. Rumors have his number closer to Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $275M deal than David Wright's 8-year, $136M pact. Even Wright's contract would be much too rich for Cano, a low-walk, no speed, horrible defensive middle infielder. Infante makes a ton of sense for the club and could serve as a strong mentor to Starlin Castro, although likely back-to-back postseason trips with the Tigers may leave him predisposed to stay in the Motor City. Utley is a very interesting possibility, a former elite talent with enough skills to be a very good regular. However, the injury history and age make him an unlikely target. I think it is Infante or bust, and I imagine Infante stays in Detroit.
Third Base
Interest Level: High. Luis Valbuena is probably not a long-term solution and Cody Ransom is 37. Kris Bryant will need a few years of seasoning assuming that he signs.
The Market: Pathetic. Slick-fielding 35-year-old Juan Uribe looks like the best option.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 0%. It's impossible when there isn't any talent there to acquire.
Shortstop
Interest Level: None. Castro has the job.
The Market: It's solidly better than the third base market. Jhonny Peralta will be 32 and should have a few more good years in front of himself. Yunel Escobar has had some Major League success, although his bat appears to have failed him. Stephen Drew is roughly the same.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 0%. Again, this is Castro's spot.
Left Field
Interest Level: Extreme. The current left fielder is deplorable at this point after a successful career.
The Market: Non-existent. 39-year-old Mark DeRosa and rejuvenated 32-year-old Nate McLouth are the entire market. Michael Morse's defense is unplayable in the outfield.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. I'm sure that the front office would love to replace Soriano, but given his contract and the market, he will get another shot in year eight.
Center Field
Interest Level: Extreme. Right fielder David DeJesus is playing out of position in 2013. Provided that Ryan Sweeney isn't the real deal, this is the spot in the lineup with the greatest chance for improvement.
The Market: Thankfully, finally, there are some real options. Two in particular jump out. First, the likeliest target: Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury. Drafted by the Epstein regime in 2005, Ellsbury has proved to be a sensational defender in his career. Unfortunately, he has been inconsistent offensively and struggled with injuries, missing huge chunks of 2010 and 2012. He is an excellent base stealer and holds a .296/.350/.437/.787 line for his career, numbers that are propped up on the strength of an MVP-caliber 2011 year in which he bashed 32 home runs; he has just 25 in the rest of his career combined. Given his complicated history and age (30), Ellsbury's financial demands will be difficult to predict. Second, Chicagoan Curtis Granderson will hit the market at 33. Granderson has also struggled with some inconsistency and injuries, but his extreme power (.305 career ISO) and decent on-base ability are very intriguing. After suffering two injuries being hit by pitches this year, his price tag could be lower than expected.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 80%. If the Cubs make an offensive splash, this is the likeliest spot with two strong options.
Right Field
Interest Level: Medium. Since I expect DeJesus to be retained via his option, this spot is occupied.
The Market: There are five decent options. First, the aforementioned Corey Hart could return to the outfield. Second, Hunter Pence has shown enough staying power to merit consideration. Third, 37-year-old Carlos Beltran is good enough to justify the age risk. But the fourth option is the jewel: Cincinnati's Shin-Soo Choo. Choo is an on-base master who should hit the market as too pricey for the Reds. Unfortunately, his game is so poor defensively that he needs to maintain his extreme walk rate and good power to be an impact talent.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. Center field is much likelier but Choo is a strong option even with his defensive shortcomings. He would be ideal atop the batting order.
Starting Pitcher
Interest Level: High. You always need pitching.
The Market: With so many starting pitchers, I will divide this into two camps: the impact starters and the filler starters. The impact group never contains a ton of options, and this year's group features only a pair. First, the Cubs' own Matt Garza will hit the market, regardless of whether he is traded. At 30 and with a couple of excellent seasons to his name, Garza figures to receive a four or five year deal worth at least $15M annually. As he has in his time with the Cubs, he would slot in as a good second banana or a great third option. Toronto's Josh Johnson is eerily similar to Garza and figures to earn a similar deal. Both pitchers come with significant injury concerns, but the upside is high enough that some team will justify the risk. The non-impact group is much larger and does feature some intriguing options. The team will likely grab at least one starter. They could go after a solid, unspectacular arm in his early 30s like Scott Feldman, Jason Hammel, Shaun Marcum, or Ricky Nolasco. They could take a riskier approach on an injury-prone player with higher upside like Scott Baker, Jorge de la Rosa, Gavin Floyd, or Chien-Ming Wang, although Floyd will likely miss most or all of 2014. They could nab an older, safer workhorse like Aaron Harang or Wandy Rodriguez. Or they could roll the dice with a former ace struggling through tougher times in Ubaldo Jimenez or Tim Lincecum. Finally, they could take a shot with Roberto Hernandez (the former Fausto Carmona), buying into his rate stats other than his home run rate.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 25% (Garza or Johnson); 90% (anyone else). The club needs arms, has cash, and doesn't have pipeline starting pitching talent. I think that the likeliest scenario is Baker returning on a goodwill deal after missing most of 2013, although a post-trade reunion with Garza is most certainly not out of the question.
Relief Pitcher
Interest Level: Extreme. With Carlos Marmol designated for assignment and Kyuji Fujikawa going under the knife, the Cubs need a number of relief arms.
The Market: The list of available relievers is enormous. If the team decides to go after a closer, injury-prone Ryan Madson and recovering Joel Hanrahan both make sense as the club can afford to wait out their return from injury. The other closers available are all in their late 30s. Non-closer targets could include Matt Capps, Joba Chamberlain, Jesse Crain, J.P. Howell, Jesse Litsch, Eric O'Flaherty, Juan Oviedo (the former Leo Nunez), and most notably, Edward Mujica.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 90%. The team so desperately needs good bullpen arms. I expect one to come this offseason and another to come next year. Relievers in particular follow the dollars, so I would not be surprised if Marmol's $9.8M from 2013 is split between a pair of newcomers.
A Note on International Free Agents
I could devote an entire blog to the new rules for international free agents. For these purposes, suffice it to say that there is a certain amount that teams can spend before losing the ability to sign international rookie free agents in future years. A team's pool is relative to their record the previous year, meaning that the Cubs have the second largest bonus pool for this year's July 2nd signing period, the first day players can sign. Teams can also trade for up to an additional 50% of their pool space.
Interest Level: Extreme. Given the club's willingness to spend on developmental talent and the large bonus pool, the Cubs are expected to be major players on the top international prospects. Thus, it is unsurprising that the team has been linked to the top Dominican player and the top Venezuelan.
The Market: Eloy Jimenez, a 6'4", 200 lbs. outfielder from Santo Domingo is the consensus top player on the international market. Jimenez lacks monster tools in the mold of Miguel Sano or Michael Ynoa. However, he already has a developed defensive game with a strong arm, good fielding skills, and very good speed. The offense has plenty of room for growth, but scouts project him to use his simple swing to be an average hitter with above-average power. Jimenez is built much like injured Daytona Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, and should follow Soler's development path as his body fills out. Rumors have his bonus coming in somewhere north of $2.6M, a figure that is larger than the entire pool for all but ten teams. The top Venezuelan prospect, SS Gleyber Torres, is also 16 with a well-rounded projection. Torres figures to run poorly, but the rest of his game projects as average or better with the possibility of a completely above-average offensive profile. His swing is compact, fluid, and beautiful. Although currently a shortstop, given his slighter frame at 6'0", 170 lbs. and a rather violent throwing motion, Torres could be a second baseman five years from now. Torres is also expected to receive more than $1M, although his demand is said to be much lower than that of Jimenez. The Cubs are believed to be heavy favorites to sign both talented teenagers. Unfortunately for the Cubs, none of the teenage pitching prospects from Latin America come with the lofty projections the team would like to see, although Dominican 16-year-old Mayky Perez throws in the mid-90s from a 6'4", 190 lbs. frame, so he could be a name to watch. One other name jumps out on the international market because of his unique service time status: Cuban right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. Because he is over 23 years old and has played at least three seasons in Cuba's top league, his bonus will not count against the signing team's bonus pool. At 26, Gonzalez could reach the Majors very quickly. He works with a four pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball, a big curveball, and a pair of complimentary pitches in a changeup and forkball. One writer reports that teams might be willing to fork over more than $10M per year for Gonzalez.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: >99%. My instincts tell me that the Cubs will have a very, very difficult time landing both Jimenez and Torres. Moreover, I imagine that Gonzalez will end up with either the Dodgers or the Red Sox given their interest in the starter. However, I will be stunned if the Cubs don't come away with at least one of the top three international talents given their $4.557M bonus pool.
Likeliest Outcome
The Cubs are going to be players internationally given their emphasis on player development and their bonus pool. I think that Jimenez is the likeliest player to join the franchise the offseason. Torres also has a very good chance of becoming a Cub.
At the Major League level, I think that the Cubs will aggressively pursue one of the big three free agent outfielders, coming away with one of Ellsbury, Choo, or Granderson (in that order of probability). I think the team also grabs a second tier starting pitcher and at least one non-closing relief pitcher. I would be very surprised if the team made a trade to acquire a big time Major League player, such as the Rays' David Price.
Generally speaking, free agency functions best as a means for a team to plug a hole, as a supplement to an almost-complete roster. However, free agency can also be the spur that kicks an otherwise dormant club into contention, much like it did with the worst-to-first 2007 Cubs which acquired Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis in the same offseason. Much more generally speaking, free agency is a way to add talent at the cost of only one resource: cash. While trades require surrendering talent in order to obtain talent, free agency - be it domestic or international (in particular, for those over 23 who do not count against a team's international bonus pool allotment) - represents an incredible opportunity, especially for wealthy clubs, to acquire talent for only their most plentiful resource.
Finally, it is important to remember that the Cubs are unlikely to contend in 2014. While a team with lofty aspirations in 2014 could justify paying the price on the back end of a long-term contract - much like the 2007 Cubs did with Alfonso Soriano in an extreme fashion - a non-contender has a difficult time justifying such a move. As a result, older free agents are much less likely to figure into the equation, even if they represent the best value on the market. For example, a player like Roy Oswalt is likely to offer a lot of value at a low cost, but Oswalt and the Cubs are a poor fit. With that in mind, here is a look at the 2014 class.
2014 MLB Free Agency
Although the 2014 class is notable for the elite pitchers that will not reach the market, including Cole Hamels and Adam Wainwright, a handful of prime players will nonetheless negotiate their way to generational wealth. Here is a position-by-position look at the Cubs' interest in possible new players.
Catcher
Interest Level: Low. With Welington Castillo entrenched as the everyday man and with all indications suggesting that he will have another year to prove himself worthy of the distinction, the team will be on the lookout only for a Dioner Navarro-type, a decent defender with a bat on which to dream a bit who can be flipped if successful.
The Market: Ironically, Geovany Soto could fit the bill, as could Miguel Olivo.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. There is room for a notable improvement, but the market is lacking.
First Base
Interest Level: None. Anthony Rizzo just signed a nine-year extension. It's really low.
The Market: Milwaukee's Corey Hart is coming off an injury but he can produce well if healthy enough to play. Mike Napoli doesn't have a true defensive position. Kendrys Morales has a well-rounded but unspectacular offensive game. The big fish would have been Justin Morneau had injuries not sapped his game.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Rizzo has the keys.
Second Base
Interest Level: High. I am very confident that the front office would like to upgrade the second base position. Darwin Barney is a useful player, an ideal backup middle infielder. However, he is overmatched as a full-time starter as evidenced by a putrid career .303 OBP and no power. Even though his defense is genuinely elite, the club needs to find some offense.
The Market: Robinson Cano is technically the biggest catch on the whole market. I say technically because very few people believe that the Yankees will actually allow him to remain free into the free agency period. However, it is possible that the sides are far enough apart that he could remain unattached into November. 32-year-old Omar Infante looks to have a couple of strong seasons left with average offense and strong defense. 35-year-old Chase Utley is an intriguing possibility showing great defense and very good offense. However, Utley seems unlikely to depart Philadelphia as a career-long Phillie, and his price tag could make him too risky given his age and extensive injury history.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 25%. Cano would obviously be the biggest name, but I expect the Cubs to pass on him even if he is available. Rumors have his number closer to Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $275M deal than David Wright's 8-year, $136M pact. Even Wright's contract would be much too rich for Cano, a low-walk, no speed, horrible defensive middle infielder. Infante makes a ton of sense for the club and could serve as a strong mentor to Starlin Castro, although likely back-to-back postseason trips with the Tigers may leave him predisposed to stay in the Motor City. Utley is a very interesting possibility, a former elite talent with enough skills to be a very good regular. However, the injury history and age make him an unlikely target. I think it is Infante or bust, and I imagine Infante stays in Detroit.
Third Base
Interest Level: High. Luis Valbuena is probably not a long-term solution and Cody Ransom is 37. Kris Bryant will need a few years of seasoning assuming that he signs.
The Market: Pathetic. Slick-fielding 35-year-old Juan Uribe looks like the best option.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 0%. It's impossible when there isn't any talent there to acquire.
Shortstop
Interest Level: None. Castro has the job.
The Market: It's solidly better than the third base market. Jhonny Peralta will be 32 and should have a few more good years in front of himself. Yunel Escobar has had some Major League success, although his bat appears to have failed him. Stephen Drew is roughly the same.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 0%. Again, this is Castro's spot.
Left Field
Interest Level: Extreme. The current left fielder is deplorable at this point after a successful career.
The Market: Non-existent. 39-year-old Mark DeRosa and rejuvenated 32-year-old Nate McLouth are the entire market. Michael Morse's defense is unplayable in the outfield.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. I'm sure that the front office would love to replace Soriano, but given his contract and the market, he will get another shot in year eight.
Center Field
Interest Level: Extreme. Right fielder David DeJesus is playing out of position in 2013. Provided that Ryan Sweeney isn't the real deal, this is the spot in the lineup with the greatest chance for improvement.
The Market: Thankfully, finally, there are some real options. Two in particular jump out. First, the likeliest target: Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury. Drafted by the Epstein regime in 2005, Ellsbury has proved to be a sensational defender in his career. Unfortunately, he has been inconsistent offensively and struggled with injuries, missing huge chunks of 2010 and 2012. He is an excellent base stealer and holds a .296/.350/.437/.787 line for his career, numbers that are propped up on the strength of an MVP-caliber 2011 year in which he bashed 32 home runs; he has just 25 in the rest of his career combined. Given his complicated history and age (30), Ellsbury's financial demands will be difficult to predict. Second, Chicagoan Curtis Granderson will hit the market at 33. Granderson has also struggled with some inconsistency and injuries, but his extreme power (.305 career ISO) and decent on-base ability are very intriguing. After suffering two injuries being hit by pitches this year, his price tag could be lower than expected.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 80%. If the Cubs make an offensive splash, this is the likeliest spot with two strong options.
Right Field
Interest Level: Medium. Since I expect DeJesus to be retained via his option, this spot is occupied.
The Market: There are five decent options. First, the aforementioned Corey Hart could return to the outfield. Second, Hunter Pence has shown enough staying power to merit consideration. Third, 37-year-old Carlos Beltran is good enough to justify the age risk. But the fourth option is the jewel: Cincinnati's Shin-Soo Choo. Choo is an on-base master who should hit the market as too pricey for the Reds. Unfortunately, his game is so poor defensively that he needs to maintain his extreme walk rate and good power to be an impact talent.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. Center field is much likelier but Choo is a strong option even with his defensive shortcomings. He would be ideal atop the batting order.
Starting Pitcher
Interest Level: High. You always need pitching.
The Market: With so many starting pitchers, I will divide this into two camps: the impact starters and the filler starters. The impact group never contains a ton of options, and this year's group features only a pair. First, the Cubs' own Matt Garza will hit the market, regardless of whether he is traded. At 30 and with a couple of excellent seasons to his name, Garza figures to receive a four or five year deal worth at least $15M annually. As he has in his time with the Cubs, he would slot in as a good second banana or a great third option. Toronto's Josh Johnson is eerily similar to Garza and figures to earn a similar deal. Both pitchers come with significant injury concerns, but the upside is high enough that some team will justify the risk. The non-impact group is much larger and does feature some intriguing options. The team will likely grab at least one starter. They could go after a solid, unspectacular arm in his early 30s like Scott Feldman, Jason Hammel, Shaun Marcum, or Ricky Nolasco. They could take a riskier approach on an injury-prone player with higher upside like Scott Baker, Jorge de la Rosa, Gavin Floyd, or Chien-Ming Wang, although Floyd will likely miss most or all of 2014. They could nab an older, safer workhorse like Aaron Harang or Wandy Rodriguez. Or they could roll the dice with a former ace struggling through tougher times in Ubaldo Jimenez or Tim Lincecum. Finally, they could take a shot with Roberto Hernandez (the former Fausto Carmona), buying into his rate stats other than his home run rate.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 25% (Garza or Johnson); 90% (anyone else). The club needs arms, has cash, and doesn't have pipeline starting pitching talent. I think that the likeliest scenario is Baker returning on a goodwill deal after missing most of 2013, although a post-trade reunion with Garza is most certainly not out of the question.
Relief Pitcher
Interest Level: Extreme. With Carlos Marmol designated for assignment and Kyuji Fujikawa going under the knife, the Cubs need a number of relief arms.
The Market: The list of available relievers is enormous. If the team decides to go after a closer, injury-prone Ryan Madson and recovering Joel Hanrahan both make sense as the club can afford to wait out their return from injury. The other closers available are all in their late 30s. Non-closer targets could include Matt Capps, Joba Chamberlain, Jesse Crain, J.P. Howell, Jesse Litsch, Eric O'Flaherty, Juan Oviedo (the former Leo Nunez), and most notably, Edward Mujica.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 90%. The team so desperately needs good bullpen arms. I expect one to come this offseason and another to come next year. Relievers in particular follow the dollars, so I would not be surprised if Marmol's $9.8M from 2013 is split between a pair of newcomers.
A Note on International Free Agents
I could devote an entire blog to the new rules for international free agents. For these purposes, suffice it to say that there is a certain amount that teams can spend before losing the ability to sign international rookie free agents in future years. A team's pool is relative to their record the previous year, meaning that the Cubs have the second largest bonus pool for this year's July 2nd signing period, the first day players can sign. Teams can also trade for up to an additional 50% of their pool space.
Interest Level: Extreme. Given the club's willingness to spend on developmental talent and the large bonus pool, the Cubs are expected to be major players on the top international prospects. Thus, it is unsurprising that the team has been linked to the top Dominican player and the top Venezuelan.
The Market: Eloy Jimenez, a 6'4", 200 lbs. outfielder from Santo Domingo is the consensus top player on the international market. Jimenez lacks monster tools in the mold of Miguel Sano or Michael Ynoa. However, he already has a developed defensive game with a strong arm, good fielding skills, and very good speed. The offense has plenty of room for growth, but scouts project him to use his simple swing to be an average hitter with above-average power. Jimenez is built much like injured Daytona Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, and should follow Soler's development path as his body fills out. Rumors have his bonus coming in somewhere north of $2.6M, a figure that is larger than the entire pool for all but ten teams. The top Venezuelan prospect, SS Gleyber Torres, is also 16 with a well-rounded projection. Torres figures to run poorly, but the rest of his game projects as average or better with the possibility of a completely above-average offensive profile. His swing is compact, fluid, and beautiful. Although currently a shortstop, given his slighter frame at 6'0", 170 lbs. and a rather violent throwing motion, Torres could be a second baseman five years from now. Torres is also expected to receive more than $1M, although his demand is said to be much lower than that of Jimenez. The Cubs are believed to be heavy favorites to sign both talented teenagers. Unfortunately for the Cubs, none of the teenage pitching prospects from Latin America come with the lofty projections the team would like to see, although Dominican 16-year-old Mayky Perez throws in the mid-90s from a 6'4", 190 lbs. frame, so he could be a name to watch. One other name jumps out on the international market because of his unique service time status: Cuban right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. Because he is over 23 years old and has played at least three seasons in Cuba's top league, his bonus will not count against the signing team's bonus pool. At 26, Gonzalez could reach the Majors very quickly. He works with a four pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball, a big curveball, and a pair of complimentary pitches in a changeup and forkball. One writer reports that teams might be willing to fork over more than $10M per year for Gonzalez.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: >99%. My instincts tell me that the Cubs will have a very, very difficult time landing both Jimenez and Torres. Moreover, I imagine that Gonzalez will end up with either the Dodgers or the Red Sox given their interest in the starter. However, I will be stunned if the Cubs don't come away with at least one of the top three international talents given their $4.557M bonus pool.
Likeliest Outcome
The Cubs are going to be players internationally given their emphasis on player development and their bonus pool. I think that Jimenez is the likeliest player to join the franchise the offseason. Torres also has a very good chance of becoming a Cub.
At the Major League level, I think that the Cubs will aggressively pursue one of the big three free agent outfielders, coming away with one of Ellsbury, Choo, or Granderson (in that order of probability). I think the team also grabs a second tier starting pitcher and at least one non-closing relief pitcher. I would be very surprised if the team made a trade to acquire a big time Major League player, such as the Rays' David Price.
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