No big updates since the earlier January mock, so away we go.
Internal Decisions
As with prior mocks, the big cuts are easy: S Eddie Jackson ($5.58M dead cap), G Cody Whitehair ($4.104M), and RB Travis Homer ($0.225M). Dead cap total after those cuts: $11.768M. I actually think that Velus Jones Jr. will stick around as a special teamer, WR, or even converted RB. We'll see. Velus is a plus KR when it gets cold and kickoffs don't carry the endzone in Chicago. That's nice in December and could be clutch in January if the Bears ever play into January again.
With an adjusted cap of $247.427M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $150.925M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $80.734M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.
Justin Fields
I've been somewhere in the neighborhood of 70/30 or 60/40 to keep Fields for a while now. But as I keep digging into the draft prep, it's tougher to maintain this position. I could be anywhere from 60/40 to 40/60 these days, depending on the individual day. But I think that the Bears are likely 80/20 to take Caleb Williams at this point. So, let's try a mock taking Williams.
That brings up the matter of Fields' trade value. On one hand, Fields has never been a plus passer in the NFL, stunting his value. On the other hand, Fields is an ultra-elite runner and has improved as a passer each year as the supporting cast has improved around him. Further helping his value: numerous teams are in need of a QB upgrade and it's pretty easy to make the argument that Fields would be better in many other, non-Chicago offenses, especially having undergone plenty of NFL seasoning with the Bears. While a lot of reporting suggests that Fields will return something like a 2nd and a 4th, I think that he'll ultimately yield a 1st or the equivalent thereof. Unfortunately, I'll rely on the PFF trade tool, so the return will surely be less than that.
Free Agency
Quick hits with projections from PFF:
- Franchise tag for CB Jaylon Johnson (1/$19M) while attempting to extend him
- Sign C Andre James (3/$27M with $15M guaranteed)
- Sign DE Za'Darius Smith (2/$24M, all guaranteed)
- Sign WR Curtis Samuel (2/$18M with $12M guaranteed)
- Sign S Geno Stone (2/$13MM with $7M guaranteed)
- Sign TE Austin Hooper (1/$2M)
- Sign WR Equanimeous St. Brown (1/$2M)
The most important goals this offseason are (i) keeping a home-grown star, (ii) bringing in a veteran starting C after years of awful play at the pivot, and (iii) adding another boost to the pass rush. Johnson, James, and Smith check those boxes. It's a good year to need a pass rushing boost, and while adding a star like Josh Allen, Brian Burns, or Danielle Hunter would be great, there's plenty of appeal to adding a second-tier pass rush specialist like Smith or Bryce Huff.
Former Giants S Xavier McKinney got a lot more expensive in the projections, jumping from an AAV near $8M to $12.5M. It's understandable but a bridge too far for this rebuild. The Connor Williams ACL tear remains a huge bummer.
Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $59.5M of cap space. This should leave plenty for the draft class.
Draft
The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using the Pro Football Focus mock draft tool.
Here we go again, this time with Williams leading the way.
#1: USC QB Caleb Williams
The Williams hype machine is in full force. Williams has a true #1 pick pedigree after half a decade of being the top QB in his class (alongside Quinn Ewers) dating to his time at Gonzaga HS in Washington, DC alongside star Penn State LT Olu Fashanu. Williams has every bit the arm that Fields has, and while his running ability is a tick below Fields, it's plenty helpful. Add in that Williams can grow with a young, improving offensive core in Chicago and the future is bright. I have no doubt that Williams will win over the Bears' locker room. He's a dynamic playmaker and those guys tend to win fans, even if the initial adjustment from the wildly-popular Fields is bumpy.
Bears trade #9 to Jacksonville for #17, #48, #116, and a 2025 2nd
All three of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze were off the board, so I was faced with the brutal choice: take Georgia TE Brock Bowers or accumulate tasty picks. Option #2 won this time.
Bears trade QB Justin Fields and a 2025 5th to New England for #34 and a 2025 3rd
New England selected Nabers in this mock, so Fields was a sensible target for them.
#17: Alabama DE Dallas Turner
I wanted to trade down again. Dallas Turner at #17 wouldn't let me do it. He's not quite Will Anderson, but he's a Day One impact player. That value is too strong.
Bears trade #34 to Atlanta for #43 and #74
Tons of great players were on the board here, including a bevy of OTs that would have moved the needle for me. But again, this value is exceptional. Atlanta ponied up to come grab Bo Nix...after not trading for Fields. Chess, not checkers.
#43: South Carolina WR Xavier Legette
I'm straight-up obsessed with Legette. I really hope Poles finds a way to get him to Chicago.
#48: Penn State DE Chop Robinson
Robinson isn't going to last this long. But if he does? Taking best player available dictates that he has to be the guy here. He's too darn good, even with Sweat, Smith, and Turner already on board. Buckle up!
One impact of loading up at DE: DeMarcus Walker kicks back inside, where he enjoyed significantly more success with Tennessee in 2022.
Bears trade #75 and #146 to Carolina for #65 and #180
Trading up is bad practice in general. But I did it here because it seemed like the right move.
#65: Kansas OT Dominick Puni
There was a huge run on OL that I liked and the pool was running dry. Puni wasn't going to last until #75, so the move up secures a legit OT prospect who can play G from the jump if necessary. Puni is a very important 6th OL in 2024.
Bears trade #74, a 2025 6th, and Miami's 2025 6th to Cleveland for #86 and a 2025 3rd
This was a tough spot for me. I like Georgia S Javon Bullard and filling the hole in the rotation behind Jaquan Brisker and free agent signing Geno Stone, but I had other plans in the 3rd round. If I could score a sufficiently tasty extra pick, I wanted to do it. So I did.
#86: Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley
I'm going to lose my mind if Poles gets Corley. Please, Ryan, please.
(BC G Christian Mahogany would also be a great choice here.)
#110: Ohio State DT Michael Hall Jr.
Another tricky spot. I love Oregon CB Khyree Jackson, but Hall offers such essential pass rush upside at DT. He should've returned to Ohio State, but he didn't and the Bears can afford to bring him along situationally with remarkably strong depth on the DL.
#116: Washington State S Jaden Hicks
Yet another spot where Jackson would've been a great choice...but I needed to come out of here with Hicks. So, he's the #3 S.
Bears trade #122 and #180 to Arizona for #133, #140, and #225
There wasn't anybody here that I desperately wanted, so move back and move #180 up 40 spots.
#133: Ohio State TE Cade Stover
Well that was fun! Stover was the guy I most wanted at #122. Moving down to get him anyway? Nice!
#140: Michigan C Drake Nugent
The Stanford transfer makes a lot of sense on this Bears roster. He doesn't look like a star, but he could fill in should an emergency emerge given his extensive collegiate experience.
#225: Iowa P Tory Taylor
There's no way that Taylor makes it to the 7th. If that inexplicably happens, the Bears should absolutely upgrade over Trenton Gill.
Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks. While it's only one extra selection, they are far more valuable than a normal allotment of one pick in each round.
1st (CHI)
2nd (CAR)
2nd (JAX)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (NE)
3rd (CLE)
3rd (CHI)
4th (CHI)
Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Velus Jones, Khari Blasingame
TE (4): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Cade Stover, FREE AGENT
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Xavier Legette, Curtis Samuel, Malachi Corley, Tyler Scott, Equanimeous St. Brown
OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Dominick Puni
OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Larry Borom
C (2): Andre James, Drake Nugent
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Za'Darius Smith, Dallas Turner, Chop Robinson, Dominique Robinson
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, DeMarcus Walker, Michael Hall Jr.
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT
S (5): Jaquan Brisker, Geno Stone, Jaden Hicks, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones
ST (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, Patrick Scales
Taking Williams at #1 overall normally stunts my ability to accrue numerous picks to fill holes. That wasn't the case here. The trade from #9 to #17 enabled the Bears to get Turner -- who would be a fine pick at #9 -- AND Robinson AND Hicks, even before accounting for the 2025 2nd.
It's also worth noting that the final tally for the Fields trade would be Fields, a 2025 5th, a 2025 6th, and Miami's 2025 6th (the 5th and pair of 6ths is roughly equivalent to a mid-4th on the pick value charts) for:
- #43
- #74
- #86
- a 2025 3rd (NE)
- another 2025 3rd (CLE)
I will miss Fields if the Bears trade him. But if the package is Fields and a 4th for a mid-2nd and four 3rds? Yeah, I'm feeling pretty happy with that.
This is my favorite mock yet.
