The 2015 Chicago Cubs: Current Major Leaguers

After taking my two-year-old daughter to her first Cubs game on her birthday last month, my incessant dreaming about the next winning Cubs team has somehow ratcheted up another level. Moving to be close to the Daytona Cubs certainly hasn't quelled that spirit. I have taken the important step of looking back at previous winning teams. In doing so, I was pleasantly reminded that there are a couple of ways to score more runs than the opposition. On one hand, you can win like the 2003 and 2007 Cubs: prevent runs at an elite level - 6th and 3rd respectively in MLB in runs allowed - while possessing a middle-of-the-road offensive attack. Alternatively, you can follow the lead of the 2008 Cubs, scoring so much that the other teams can't keep up. The '08 team finished second in MLB in runs scored, although to be fair, they also rode some solid starters and an elite bullpen of Wood-Marmol-Marshall to a 4th place finish in runs allowed.

I'm going to look at the current roster, take a glance at possible free agent acquisitions, and focus heavily on internal solutions to fill holes. With that in mind, here's a look into the future, all the way to 2015, beginning with the current Major Leaguers. In evaluating each player's likeliest outcome, I am suggesting what I think will happen between now and 2015. For example, while I think that Scott Hairston will likely be traded, I don't think that he will be moved in 2013.

Current Chicago Cubs (Active 25 Man Roster plus David DeJesus)
It's no secret that the current team is nowhere near talented enough to contend. The primary cleanup hitter has a .274 OBP, incredibly outdone by the primary #2 hitter at .264. It's a mess.

I think that the current team's players can be lumped into three categories: players likely to leave as free agents or be released, players likely to be traded in order to return young talent to the organization, and players expected to contribute for the long haul. Sadly, the first two groups are disproportionately large for this team.

Likely to be Released or Leave via Free Agency
1. LF Alfonso Soriano
Note: Much like Carlos Marmol, Soriano suffers from a pair of long-term issues: an extreme strikeout rate and an inability to draw walks. Unfortunately, with age, Soriano has been sapped of his hitting ability, his power has decreased substantially, and the running game is no longer a part of his arsenal. At this point, I don't think anyone would touch him for $1M. For $18M? No chance.
2. CF Ryan Sweeney
Note: I sure hope I'm wrong here. The former top prospect looks the part of big league regular and has produced wonderfully for the Cubs over 111 plate appearances to the tune of .304/.355/.539/.894. While the hitting ability and walk rate are in line with his career, the power is unprecedented. It is possible that he has finally figured things out at 28; unfortunately, that just isn't likely.
3. CF Julio Borbon
Note: Borbon has one skill: speed. He isn't long for the Majors.
4. OF Brian Bogusevic
Note: A good story as a converted pitcher, Bogusevic is unlikely to survive the 2013 season.
5. RP Blake Parker
Note: Organizational filler.
6. RP Shawn Camp
Note: He's 37 with no stuff and the worst numbers of any current Cubs pitcher.
7. RP Henry Rodriguez
Note: It will be wonderful if the Cubs can teach Rodriguez how to command his electric fastball. Unfortunately, on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, I cannot imagine his command is much beyond a 20. Those kinds of pitchers don't stick anywhere for a long time.
8. RP Hector Rondon
Note: The Rule 5 pick has enough stuff to stick around, but his elbow likely won't hold together well enough to give him enough consistency to really command his arsenal: he followed Tommy John surgery with a fractured elbow in 2011.

Trade Candidates
*Note: For purposes of this section, a "great" prospect would be ranked in the top half of the top ten of a team's prospects, a "good" prospect would be in the latter portion of the top ten of a team's prospects, a "decent" prospect would be ranked 11th to 20th for an organization, and a  "fringe" prospect would be 20th or later.
1. RF Nate Schierholtz
Note: Schierholtz has been an excellent addition to the 2013 squad, providing across-the-board skills in a strict platoon role. There is always demand for players hitting .293/.342/.563/.905, especially ones generally regarded as average-or-better defenders.
Expected Timing and Return: Plenty of teams could use Schierholtz, particularly the Tigers, Indians, Yankees, Rangers, and the all-in Blue Jays. Schierholtz will leave Chicago very near the All-Star break. I expect a pair of decent prospects or possibly one good prospect in return.
2. CF David DeJesus
Note: DeJesus enjoyed an explosive April followed by a decent May and a dreadful June capped off with a shoulder injury. He is a good citizen and would be welcome in any clubhouse as a fringe starter.
Expected Timing and Return: 2014 trade deadline. The Cubs will exercise his option given the unfortunate timing of his injury, then flip him for one average and one fringe prospect. Unfortunately, defense and chemistry don't go for the same market rate as power.
3. RF Scott Hairston
Note: Supposedly a lefty masher, Hairston hasn't mashed anyone in 2013.
Expected Timing and Return: 2014 deadline. Assuming he returns to his career norms in 2014, some contender will latch on to his platoon bat and give up a fringe prospect for him.
4. 2B Darwin Barney
Note: Barney is an all-glove, no-bat middle infielder. While there are plenty of those who stick in the Majors for years, he's about to cost a whole lot more in an organization with numerous infield prospects inching toward Chicago. It's a perfect storm for Barney.
Expected Timing and Return: 2013 offseason or 2014 deadline. Barney is the kind of player a contender acquires when they need to bridge the gap to an impact youngster who isn't quite ready. He will hold down the fort but his offensive game is too poor to warrant a long-term job. He will bring back only one fringe prospect or two.
5. IF Cody Ransom
Note: At 37, Ransom continues to display good power and nothing else. Thankfully for the Cubs, his power has surged into elite territory (.302 ISO) and he is walking enough to get on-base at a passable rate. Hopefully some team will look past his 34% strikeout rate.
Expected Timing and Return: Deadline day 2013. Ransom will bring back a fringe prospect, which must be a whole lot more than the Cubs expected when they signed him.
6. 3B Luis Valbuena
Note: Valbuena looked like a AAAA talent for a long time, dominating AAA while scuffling in the Majors. An uptick in his walk rate, a slight increase in power, and continued excellent defense at the hot corner has Valbuena looking like a solid platoon regular instead of a fringe Major Leaguer. Unfortunately there is no impact potential in the 27-year-old's game.
Expected Timing and Return: Mid-season 2014. Somebody's 3B or 2B will get injured and Valbuena is an ideal fill-in. His production is good enough that he should bring back a decent prospect.
7. C   Dioner Navarro
Note: After a good 2008 season in Tampa Bay, Navarro has done almost nothing to earn his job until this year. He is playing decent defense, drawing walks, and hitting for great power, especially versus left-handed pitching.
Expected Timing and Return: ASAP. Navarro should be some contender's backup catcher and bench bat to face situational lefties right now. He will only bring back a fringe prospect, but that's fine for a 29-year-old reserve.
8. SP Scott Feldman
Note: Signed after a largely unlucky 2012 campaign, Feldman has been everything the Cubs could have hoped for: reliable, crafty, and lucky (.255 BABIP). His value is as high right now as it likely can be.
Expected Timing and Return: A few weeks before the 2013 deadline. Some starter will suffer an injury, leaving a contender with the need for five or six July-August starts. Enter Feldman, who can smoothly transition to the bullpen if need be. He should net one decent prospect, although a desperate team could push that price up into the good range.
9. SP Matt Garza
Note: Garza is the toughest Cub to predict. There is still a chance that he signs an extension, he could be traded, or his elbow could flare up again. Odds are a few more good starts will have him packing his bags for Washington, Colorado, San Francisco, or the Yankees.
Expected Timing and Return: Garza's next few starts will play a much greater role in determining his value that they would for most pitchers given his injury history. If he pitches well, he should bring back a couple of good prospects with the chance for a great one. If he struggles, it might just be one good one. I expect him to move a week or so before the deadline.
10. RP Kevin Gregg
Note: Picked up off the scrap heap, Gregg is challenging for the club record for consecutive saves to start the season (a bit disingenuous given Gregg's claiming the role in May). He is using a three pitch mix and keeping his fastball down, although he is due for a dud.
Expected Timing and Return: Within a week of the deadline. Effective relievers on poor teams almost always get moved. If he can bring back a decent prospect, it's a huge win for the organization. A fringe player is more likely.
11. RP Carlos Villanueva
Note: Signed to function as a swingman, Villanueva has done just that, providing a couple of months a strong starts before shifting into a prominent relief role.
Expected Timing and Return: 2013 offseason. Villanueva will stick around for the rest of 2013 to make starts after the expected departure of at least one starting pitcher. But some general manager who wants a versatile arm will fork over an average prospect to pick up the solid, steady righty.

Future Pieces
1. 1B Anthony Rizzo
Note: The one cornerstone piece in the lineup, Rizzo has shown himself to be the real deal over his first year with the Cubs. Although better suited for the 4th or 5th spot in a contender's lineup given the great-but-not-monstrous status of his game, Rizzo will likely hold down the 3rd spot for another year until someone genuinely pushes him to his more natrual location.
2. SS Starlin Castro
Note: In spite of a disastrous campaign, Castro remains a linchpin of the future. I can't pretend that he has brought much of value; indeed, in my view, he has been the team's worst player in a lost season. Still, there is a .290/.340/.440 shortstop in there somewhere. That's still exceedingly rare. The coaching staff will earn their salary on Castro or lose their jobs trying.
3. C   Welington Castillo
Note:  He's no 2008 Geovany Soto, but Castillo is a strong defender with a passable offensive game. Given the state of the catching position, that makes him an average starter. The team has to help him rediscover his power stroke. His recent increase in discipline should help. Plenty of teams have made deep playoff runs with excellent defensive catchers batting eighth with minimal offensive contributions. Castillo can be a bit more than that.
4. SP Edwin Jackson
Note: Oh what could have been. Although I've long supported Edwin, Anibal Sanchez's dominating performance thus far is tough to watch. Regardless, Edwin has been himself in almost every statistical category except for two: his almost-career-high .340 BABIP and his full-season worst ERA of 5.84. His FIP is 3.78 compared to 3.85, 3.55, and 3.86 the three preceding years. He's going to be just fine.
5. SP Jeff Samardzija
Note: Samardzija is overwhelmingly likely to spend the next 5-7 years with the Cubs. At 28, he is in his prime and pitching like a frontline starter with strong rate stats across the board. Anyone worried about his not having signed an extension can calm their fears: Samardzija is wisely betting on his talent with over $15M in his pocket despite having only gone through arbitration once. He is only going to get one crack at a big contract, so he is going to make it count. If he pitches well for the next 12 months, expect an extension before the close of the 2014 season with Samardzija anchoring the rotation of a budding contender.
6. SP Travis Wood
Note: The swingman acquired in the Sean Marshall trade turned out to be the hidden gem of the 2013 season. I debated putting Wood in the trade camp - and he may ultimately end up there before 2015 - but I think that he has shown enough improvement in 2013 to warrant an extended look in the rotation. The warning signs are prevalent: an unsustainably low HR/FB rate (5.7%) and an absurdly low BABIP .222. However, he has a better-than-average HR/FB rate for his career and an excellent .262 BABIP, so it's possible that he is the kind of pitcher who consistently outperforms his peripherals. The Cubs have the luxury of seeing that possiblity through over the next year.
7. RP James Russell
Note: Simply put, Russell can pitch. None of his pitches are flashy, but he gets his strikeouts without walking batters. He may turn out to be a lefty specialist (.429 OPS allowed v. lefties, .796 v. righties), but the Cubs can afford to give him another year of facing batters from both sides of the plate before making that determination for good.

MLB Draft: Scouting Services v. Actual Results

As many sports fans know, there are endless draft prospect rankings released each year in advance of the NBA and NFL drafts. Those drafts have been a big part of the sporting landscape for years.

However, roughly six years ago, Major League Baseball began a big push to publicize its own draft, particularly via the broadcast of the draft. The MLB draft varies from its counterparts in foundational ways, namely the length (40 rounds as opposed to two and seven, respectively), proximity of draftees to the top league, and pre-draft popularity of prospects.

One additional way in which the drafts differ: the ability of prognosticators to align pre-draft prospect rankings with actual draft results. In the NFL and NBA contexts, experts are very good at pegging roughly where picks will land. However, in the MLB arena, this ability tends to last only into the mid-to-late first round.

There are a number of reasons for this, although two jump out to me in addition to those affecting popularity discussed above.. First, the pool-based slotting system leads to some better players with high bonus demands slipping way down or even off of draft boards, leading to a significant gap between selection and talent. Second, the breadth of MLB draft prospects makes evaluating all of them nearly impossible.

With that out of the way, here is a look at the 2013 Chicago Cubs draft picks with their Baseball America pre-draft rankings, the recommended bonus value of their draft slot, and the amount for which the player has signed, if applicable.

Name, Position	BA Ranking	Draft Slot	MLB Slot Bonus	Actual Bonus
Kris Bryant, 3B	3	2	$6,708,400	N/A
Rob Zastryzny, LHP	77	41	$1,361,900	Unofficial
Jacob Hannemann, CF	209	75	$736,200	Unofficial
Tyler Skulina, RHP	74	108	$477,300	N/A
Trey Masek, RHP	48	138	$357,400	N/A
Scott Frazier, RHP	159	168	$267,600	Unofficial
David Garner, RHP	245	198	$200,400	Unofficial
Sam Wilson, LHP	N/A	228	$159,400	N/A
Charcer Burks, CF	N/A	258	$148,900	$170,000
Zack Godley, RHP	N/A	288	$139,000	Unofficial
Trevor Clifton, RHP	146	348	<$100,000	Unofficial (“3rd $”)
Michael Wagner, RHP	188	438	<$100,000	Unofficial

Note that I have not included C Jeremy Martinez, the 226th ranked prospect selected by the Cubs in the 37th round. Martinez is a 99.999%+ bet to attend USC. Also note that 12th round pick, RHP Trevor Clifton, has reportedly signed with the team for "third round money;" given the slot amounts for third round picks, that could be anywhere from $486,600 to $747,700. As stated in a prior post, any amount in excess of $100,000 for a pick in the 11th round or later will count against a team's pool, so Clifton's bonus has to be coming from some of the earlier picks, likely Hannemann and Zastryzny.

Clifton's situation is unimaginable in the NFL. It is not unheard of for a third-fifth round prospect to go undrafted; in fact, it happens every year. However, it is unheard of for an undrafted player - here, a post-10th round choice - to receive a higher bonus amount than a fourth round choice. Given the strangeness of the MLB draft, superior prospects like Clifton end up in bizarre draft locations, even if much less so than before bonus pooling.

Perhaps publications will get better over time as the MLB draft continues to increase in popularity. Perhaps the Cubs were being clever by drafting less prospects much too high so that they can be signed for lower amounts to be distributed to later-drafted prospects. Perhaps this is just the natural disconnect between rating services in baseball and front offices. Regardless, it's a fun quirk.

Daytona Cubs: Ernie Says "Let's Play Two!"

Just under two weeks ago, I moved from the cool Midwest to balmy North Florida. There are many benefits of my new domicile, but one of the greatest is my proximity to Daytona Beach, and, thus, the Daytona Cubs. Thanks to a week of powerful rainstorms from tropical storm Andrea, the D-Cubs had a doubleheader on Sunday night and I settled into my fourth row seat directly behind the plate for 14 innings of baseball with Ben Wells and a radar gun sitting right in front of me.

Below are my musings on the players I saw. I have tried my darndest to avoid letting my preconceived notions of the players skew my thoughts. That will be particularly difficult with some. Regardless, here are my notes that I took during the game and my thoughts on the players with a few hours to digest what I saw.

Before beginning, it is essential to know the competition. The Brevard County Manatees' Game 1 starter was Cody Scarpetta. The beefy righty was the number two prospect in the Brewers system three years ago, but 2012 Tommy John surgery has derailed his career; his June 9th start was just his second since returning to the mound. He worked at 88-91 with a hitch in his delivery that made timing a bit tricky. He also threw a sweeping curveball in the high-70s. Unfortunately for Scarpetta, he is in the early stages of recovery and showed the typical lack of command. Scarpetta lasted just 2 2/3 innings. His replacement, Chad Pierce, threw almost identical pitches, although he worked more regularly in the high-80s for his 2 1/3 innings. The Game 1 catcher, Cameron Garfield, had a 20 arm.

The Game 2 starting pitcher, lanky lefty Brent Suter, enjoyed far more success over his 5 1/3 innings, but he did so with even less stuff. He worked at 84-86, hitting 88 a couple of times, regularly mixing in a 67-70 slurve. He also occasionally threw a harder curve at 78. Suter had tremendous command of his two main pitches, although it did begin to falter as the Cubs rallied in the sixth.

One final note: I wrote the comments below for all of the batters on Sunday night, so any comments about Javier Baez are unaffected by his game-of-the-year performance on Monday. Without further adieu, we're on to the Cubs.

John Andreoli, LF
Stats: 2-5, 2 BB, 2 SO, 4 R, 3 SB
Notes: Great approach; first strikeout was horrible call by umpire, should have been another walk; very good speed; runs bases well but safely; nearly killed pitcher with screaming comebacker; started G2-winning rally by beating out tough infield single; while DHing in Game 1, was in the dugout with his helmet and batting gloves on, bat in hand, dissecting his next plate trip with the hitting coach; appears eminently coachable with good leadership skills
Thoughts: I was thoroughly impressed by Andreoli. He did not put a ball in play in four plate appearances in Game 1 yet looked fantastic doing so, showing a keen awareness of the strike zone. In Game 2, Andreoli made excellent, loud contact twice. He doesn't appear to have any power projection, but the rest of his game looks good enough to get a cup of coffee.
Projection: MLB 5th outfielder

Tim Saunders, 2B
Stats: 2-3, 2B, BB, SO, 3 R, RBI, 2 SB
Notes: Opened G1 scoring by taking a nice easy swing to line a high fastball for a 1B up the middle; too fast for horrible catcher; reacted well to pitches, using all fields; good speed; good athlete; should handle 2B fine
Thoughts: I had heard plenty about Saunders, a former 32nd rounder. He looked like a natural, especially at the plate. His approach was quiet but sound, leading to good swings at hittable pitches. He won't have any power in his game.
Projection: Fringe MLB reserve

Zeke DeVoss, CF
Stats: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, R, RBI, 3 SB
Notes: Good athlete in smallish frame; looks almost uncomfortable hitting left-handed; very natural right-handed; smooth, powerful stroke from right side; covers plenty of ground in CF; extremely aggressive lead offs
Thoughts: I was excited to see DeVoss, supposedly a relatively polished offensive prospect from Florida State. Overall, I was disappointed in his offensive game despite strong numbers and arguably the best hit ball of the night into the left-center gap. I'm likely blinded by how uncomfortable he looked hitting as a lefty. He likely won't have any power in his game.
Projection: Non-MLB

Javier Baez, SS
Stats: 1-5, 2B, 2 BB, SO, RBI, 2 SB
Notes: Just missed crushing a high fastball, hitting towering fly to center; takes a SOOYA (Swing Out Of Your A..) everytime; screamed liner just foul on 92 pulled inside fastball; looked awful striking out chasing curve in dirt outside; chased high fastball on 2-0; runner caught in rundown, but Baez threw ball into stands on a wild, out of control throw, costing team a run; showed good composure taking back-to-back questionable outside strikes, then lacing a 2-strike 2B into RCF gap; badly pulled off on a meatball changeup - staring at LF wall when swinging; enough speed - both steals came against strong defensive catcher; extremely heads up steal of uncovered 3B; very discerning in final PA; very good range and fluid motions fielding batted balls; nonchalant approach when fielding pop-ups
Thoughts: I was giddy to see Baez in person. While there were some disappointments, there was also way more than enough to encourage. He has a very high energy approach to all phases of the game, repeatedly making diving attempts on clear ground ball singles, keeping two of them in the infield, and taking vicious cuts on every swing. I was alternately impressed and frustrated by his aggressiveness. I hated the errant throw and chasing an up-out-of-the-zone 2-0 fastball; I loved how loud all of his contact was and how he keenly swiped an uncovered 3B. I had been hopeful that Baez could reach Chicago as a regular by 2015, but he will need more seasoning to reach his very high ceiling, even if his approach at the plate was more advanced that I expected to see. He drew back-to-back walks off of Suter, a command-and-control lefty with a pristine 1.85 BB/9 entering the game, including a beautiful plate appearance during the game-winning rally where he swung at hittable pitches and watched balls. The offensive ceiling is stratospheric. He likely can make it as an MLB SS, but he lacks the range/arm combination of Starlin Castro, so I think a move to 2B or 3B - given his strong arm - may be in his rather distant future.
Projection: MLB regular with good power, #2 or #5 hitter; will push for All-Star appearances

Jorge Soler, RF
Stats: 1-7, 2B, 2 RBI
Notes: Four ugly first-pitch swings, 3x with RISP; unnecessarily aggressive at plate; looks stiff with basic movements; scouts behind me commented that he doesn't run out grounders/pop-ups; with 2 strikes, opposing pitchers looked to breaking ball every time; crushed mistake pitch on inner half off LF wall; three nubbers - too excited?; took a defensive swing on 1-1 fastball; tremendous jump on sinking line drive down the line - made a rather tough play look easy
Thoughts: I was most excited to see Soler, and he left me feeling disappointed and questioning his ceiling. He made tons of contact, so much so that I worry about his ability to work counts. He regularly reached out of the zone and made enough contact to put the ball in play, but only once did he display a powerful swing. Perhaps he deserves more credit for knocking in a pair of runs with grounders, but I expect more from a  middle-of-the-order bat. I was expecting him to be a more dynamic athlete. He could still prove to be an impact player, but his approach at the plate needs to be much more focused on making powerful contact, not merely avoiding 2-strike counts. I was also disappointed that it took him so long to reach top speed as a baserunner. If he is to have any base stealing ability, he needs to put in a lot of work on his takeoff. He should have no trouble sticking in RF and will be an asset there defensively.
Projection: MLB regular with good power, #5 hitter; could still be #4 hitter with polished approach

Dustin Geiger, 1B
Stats: 3-6, HR, BB, SO, 4 RBI
Notes: Good approach; good swing; looks a bit small for 1B; smooth action at the plate; plays with confidence
Thoughts: What a pleasant surprise. I was familiar with Geiger's solid production entering the game, but I was very pleasantly surprised with the 1B. Geiger hit the doubleheader's only home run, a fly into the LCF gap. His offensive game appeared very advanced with a good feel for the zone complemented by a smooth, strong swing. Every time he got a pitch over the inner half, he crushed it. Geiger likely won't ever hit for enough power to be an everyday first baseman at the Major League level, but there is enough to like in his offensive profile to think that he can be an asset on a 25-man roster. With Rizzo and Vogelbach on board, Geiger, 21, could make for trade bait at some point.
Projection: MLB reserve, good bench bat

Ben Carhart, 3B
Stats: 1-5, 2B, BB, 2 SO, R
Notes: Laced 2B to right field corner; very solid defensively; stocky
Thoughts: Carhart looks the part of a player who is maxed out at Daytona. He isn't overmatched at all, but he does not appear to have the skills to keep climbing the organizational ladder. The defense is really nice with very smooth movements and a calm approach to fielding. It's just clear that he isn't even supposed to be the starter in A ball, only getting the gig with Stephen Bruno recovering from a hamstring injury.
Projection: Non-MLB

Chadd Krist, C
Stats: 1-3, 2 SO
Notes: None
Thoughts: Krist didn't stand out at all. He doesn't appear to have any special skills. He actually reminded me quite a bit of Steve Clevenger: very solid defensively with a good offensive approach but no tools. There is no power potential in his swing or his frame. That plays reasonably well in the low minors, but that's about it.
Projection: Non-MLB

Wes Darvill, 2B
Stats: 1-3, SO
Notes: Very lanky, looks awkward in that he hasn't really grown into his gangly frame yet; compact swing
Thoughts: Darvill looked like the athletic British Columbian he is. He is a good baseball player, but in many ways he still has the look of someone figuring out the game. He has no power in his frame which explains his very compact swing. Even if everything comes together for him, his offensive profile isn't exciting, even if he nearly killed the pitcher with a screaming comebacker. At times he looks like he's playing softball offensively.
Projection: Non-MLB

Yaniel Cabezas, DH (C)
Stats: 0-2, DP
Notes: None
Thoughts: While Krist will likely climb to Tennessee or even Iowa before his prospect train stalls out, Cabezas is already completely overmatched. I was actually surprised to see him playing professional ball. I assumed that he was very young, still acclimating to the United States. Turns out he is 24. Perhaps he has excellent defensive skills; I just didn't see anything encouraging.
Projection: Non-MLB

Taiwan Easterling, LF
Stats: 0-3, 2 SO
Notes: None
Thoughts: I have seen Easterling's name pop up plenty of times while searching through minor league box scores, so I know that he has done enough things to generate at least a bit of excitement. I just don't see it. He isn't athletic enough for a corner outfield profile with no power in his game. He did make a nice throw to the plate trying to cut down a runner, though he missed just up the third base line.
Projection: Non-MLB

Taylor Davis, C
Stats: 0-2
Notes: None
Thoughts: Davis didn't show anything that suggested he will climb the ladder beyond Daytona, although he did not appear poor defensively.
Projection: Non-MLB

Kyler Burke, SP
Stats: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 2B allowed, 1 BB, 5 SO, 2 R, 1 ER, Win
Notes: Good running action on fastball; worked at 87-88 through three innings, hitting 89; slider had some two plane break at 79-81, but only threw 2-3 times; bottom fell out of excellent changeup at 78-81; routinely fooled hitters with changeup, his strikeout pitch; command issues with changeup early in game; no feel for curveball whatsoever in first three innings, warm-ups included; plenty of curveballs second time through the lineup, working in the mid-70s; very little stamina: fastball velocity down to 84-86, hitting 87, by fourth inning
Thoughts: I was excited about seeing Burke on the bump having followed his career as an outfielder since the Cubs acquired him for Michael Barrett. Upon seeing Burke's first few deliveries, I had a pair of unconnected thoughts. First, he lacks the velocity to make it as a starting pitcher. Second, his delivery is very smooth, stunningly so for a converted outfielder. His mechanics were very repeatable, except on his curveball. He didn't overpower anyone with his heater. However, his changeup is a Major League caliber offering. I don't think that he can squeeze any more velocity out of his arm, but he should absolutely head to Tennessee immediately to see if he might be able to make it to Chicago soon. Despite the mid-career switch to the mound, he is too advanced for Florida State League hitters. He will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason.
Projection: Fringe MLB reliever

P.J. Francescon, SP
Stats: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 2B allowed, 2 BB, 7 SO, 2 R, 2 ER
Notes: Good tailing fastball; worked 90-92, dropped to 88 a few times, hit 94 a few times; does not appear to have any downward movement; show-me slider used sparingly, at 82; poor command of slider; excellent changeup at 81-84; changeup has identical movement to fastball and mechanically identical to fastball; good command and control of changeup; loopy slurve at 76, worked in regularly the second time through but left up in zone
Thoughts: It's hard to be excited about a 5'11", 24-year-old 40th round pick from Trevecca Nazarene, but it happened to me. Francescon struck out the leadoff man to begin the game, then surrendered four consecutive hits before retiring 11 in a row, including four via strikeout. His stat line is deceptively poor; after allowing a leadoff 2B in the fifth followed by a sacrifice bunt, Francescon utilized his open bases, unintentionally intentionally walking the two dangerous lefties he faced and striking our the second and fourth hitting righties. A pair of truly horrendous starts are largely responsible for his middling line on the year - he allowed seven runs in three innings in an April start and was left in to allow 10 runs in five innings in May. The pitcher that I saw should climb the ladder with a shot to pitch in the Show in a couple of years. He won't have a long MLB career if he makes it, but he has more stuff than many Major Leaguers and enough pitchability to make it work.
Projection: MLB spot starter or short-term long reliever

Yao-Lin Wang, RP
Stats: 2 IP, 2 H, SO
Notes: Threw almost exclusively fastballs; worked 88-90, reaching back for 92; little movement on heater; decent curveball with 10-to-4 movement; really lived off of his fastball; deliberate, drawn out delivery with the speed of Hideo Nomo
Thoughts: I know that Wang has produced some nice results as a pro, but I didn't see much to excite. His fastball is too straight for the low-90s, and I didn't see him throw a changeup despite his tossing approximately 40 pitches. His body should be able to handle plenty of innings; I just doubt that the results will continue for long enough to justify giving him too many.
Projection: Non-MLB

Eduardo Figueroa, RP
Stats: 2 IP, H, BB, 4 SO, Win
Notes: Big, electric fastball; sat at 94, hitting 95 and 96 once each; hung one changeup at 85; tight, downward breaking slider at 82-85; absolutely embarrassed hitters with his slider; shattered a bat with an inside fastball; lost control with two outs in the 7th
Thoughts: Where in the world did he come from? Figueroa had a man's arm among boys. His numbers on the season are dreadful, but the pitcher I saw looked more like a setup man on a rehab assignment than a low minor leaguer who has never pitched beyond the Florida State League. Perhaps a light bulb finally went off; perhaps I just happened to catch the night of his life. Regardless, I was very encouraged by what I saw.
Projection: MLB reliever

FINAL THOUGHT
It is overwhelmingly clear that the organization is imploring batters to work deep into counts. I largely wrote off the plethora of walks in the early portion of Game 1 to Scarpetta's return from surgery. However, there were tons of deep counts and three more walks in Game 2 against a strike zone pounding hurler. Although the team lost both ends of a doubleheader today, they drew an absurd 19 walks over 14 innings. On Sunday, Soler was the only player in the top six of the lineup who showed a poor approach, and the book on him for his entire time in the States has included a great approach. I assume that I caught him in a funk.

The approach of the hitters sometimes shows through a box score while other times it doesn't. The organizational philosophy is taking hold.

Chicago Cubs: MLB Draft in 2013 and Beyond

Draft day is here. Although Major League Baseball has taken a number of steps to increase the popularity of the Rule 4 draft - most notably making it into a televised event - MLB draft day generally doesn't generate the same buzz its NFL or NBA counterparts. While that isn't going to change anytime soon, Cubs fans have reason to celebrate this year. In an extremely shallow draft with only a pair of elite talents, the Cubs have a top-two pick. Thus, the answer to the prompt posed in the title is very easy: the Cubs select whoever the Astros do not. As of about 7:15pm tonight, the Cubs will almost certainly own the rights to either Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray or Stanford RHP Mark Appel. For a team in need of more impact building blocks, that is tremendous news.

I would prefer to see the Cubs select Appel. He is the safer of the two picks, should reach the Majors quickly, and has very little leverage as a college senior. Gray has the higher ceiling with triple-digit heat, but Appel's floor is likely that of a third starter. He just makes too much sense for the Cubs right now. Regardless, either player immediately becomes the Cubs top pitching prospect and realistically a top five pitcher in the organization as a whole.

Beyond simply developing a preference for Gray or Appel, the MLB draft presents a slew of interesting topics for consideration. Here are a few of them:

1. Draft Bonus Pools
In an effort to curb runaway spending on the draft by wealthier teams, MLB's most recent collective bargaining agreement (CBA) provides new bonus pools with stiff penalties for teams that exceed those pools. The pool only applies to a team's picks in the top ten rounds of the draft unless a team spends greater than $100K on a pick in the 11th or later round, at which point the excess of that player's bonus beyond $100K is applied to the team's pool. The bonuses are calculated by draft slot, although the actual player's bonus need not match the MLB-designed amount.

By way of example, the slot value for the sixth overall selection in the 2012 draft was $3.25M. The Cubs chose Albert Almora with that pick and ended up paying him a $3.9M bonus; however, because the club signed the vast majority of their other picks in the first ten rounds for below slot value, they exceeded their $8.307M pool by just $373.8K. This trend was followed by most teams, selecting college seniors in the latter half of the first ten rounds and giving them bonus of only a few thousand dollars. Because the Cubs overspent their pool by 4.5%, they paid a 75% tax on the overage. Penalties beyond the 5% excess immediately become much more severe. The list of possible penalties:

0% < amount < 5%: 75% tax on overage
5% < amount < 10%: 75% tax on overage AND loss of next year's 1st round pick
10% < amount < 15%: 100% tax on overage AND loss of next year's 1st AND 2nd round picks
15% < amount: 100% tax on overage AND loss of next two 1st round picks

The penalties prefer two violations: that by less than 5% and that by greater than 15%. The most valuable asset in the draft is the picks, the opportunity to acquire players without competing with the other 29 teams. Players, agents, and the teams are all keenly aware of this, although no team has ventured beyond the 5% overage as of yet. The incentive to blow past the 15% mark presents itself very clearly and could apply to the Cubs as early as next year or, more likely, in 2015. I have not seen any sports writers discuss this approach, so allow me to be the first.

Every year before 2012, teams would take later round fliers on excellent players who seemed unlikely to sign with a professional team out of high school due to a solid college commitment. The Yankees, Red Sox, and even Tigers were masters of blowing past slot recommendations for picks, perhaps best exemplified by Tigers RHP Rick Porcello. Porcello fell all the way to #27 overall in 2007 due to his extreme bonus demands and solid commitment to North Carolina. The recommended bonus for the 27th pick was $1.17M. The Tigers blew the bank, guaranteeing Porcello $7M on a Major League deal that included a $3.5M bonus. Notwithstanding their rushing him to the majors and stunting his growth, the Tigers spent a paltry sum to get 150 starts out of Porcello in advance of his 25th birthday. The Cubs rarely took advantage of this approach, although they finally did with North Carolina commitment RHP Dillon Maples in 2011, awarding him a $2.5M bonus as a 14th round pick, the same amount slotted for the 5th overall pick that year. The value here is obvious: a premium talent acquired at the extremely low cost of a 14th round pick and $2.5M. To a team with revenue of $258M that year, signing Maples was a no-brainer. The new rules have attempted to make this tougher.

Hopefully the 2015 Cubs have the look of a perennial contender with premier talents like RF Jorge Soler, SS Javier Baez, CF Albert Almora, and SP Pierce Johnson settling into contributing roles to complement prime stars 1B Anthony Rizzo, SS Starlin Castro, and SP Jeff Samardzija. With a perfect storm of young talent arriving in 2015, the Cubs could be looking at a relatively high draft spot in June 2015 despite the fact that the team would be pushing for a playoff spot with a young core. If that occurs, they can take a riskier approach to the draft. If there is a talent such as Maples - or ideally a handful of like-situated talents - the Cubs could take the approach of loading up on way-over-slot players. Because the penalties stop escalating at 15% excess - that is, the penalty for 15% over slot is the same as 200% over - the Cubs could seek the absolute best talent in every round and determine to sign that player regardless of cost. If it takes $3M or so to sign potential first round picks away from strong college commitments, why not do that 10 times in the same draft? The total cost would be huge: roughly $40M spent on the total draft class and the loss of first round picks in 2016 and 2017. However, if the team is good, those picks are much less valuable as late first round choices and the total reward is absurd with 10 new premium prospects that would normally require 10 first round picks to acquire. The problem with this approach is obvious: you must go all-in as failure to sign any of the picks represents a completely wasted selection. It would require a perfect storm, one that could very well occur for the 2015 Cubs: a strong, young core with the look of a perennial contender, a secure front office, and an owner willing to spend huge sums of money.

2. Signability
Until a team pursues such an aggressive draft, signability will remain a huge concern, especially of the top choice. If a team signs less highly rated college players in rounds 2-10 for well-below slot deals but then fails to use that excess to sign the top choice, they do get that top pick again in the next year's draft but they also lose the chance to select betters players in rounds 2-10 of the current year's draft, a devastating blow.

For the 2013 Cubs, signability mostly means that of Appel. There are a pair of factors that should keep his price more reasonable and a trio of factors that should keep it sky high. First, Appel is a college senior. If he fails to sign again this year, his only real alternative is a year of Independent League ball before re-reentering the draft in 2014. At some point he has to start his career. That plays into the second factor: because he is overwhelmingly likely to be chosen in the top two, he will likely sign for a bonus of north of $7M. He just isn't going to do much better than that as a draftee. The Cubs have some nice leverage here.

However, three factors will push Appel's price up. First and most important, he is represented by Scott Boras. Every agent wants to get the best deal for their player; Boras will get every penny for Appel. Boras does his job better than any other agent, something that doesn't bother me given the limited earning period for professional athletes and the insane wealth of MLB team owners. Second, Appel is the best player in this draft. While Gray may have a higher ceiling - and that is debatable - it isn't much higher and Appel has more consistently plowed through the collegiate and international opposition. Finally, Appel made the bold decision to return to Stanford for his senior year after being a top-ten pick, so he likely wants to show the baseball world that his decision was worth it. A $3M increase in his draft bonus will do that (although I'd argue that the strongest bet on his talent would have been signing for less last year, thus presumably moving him one year closer to MLB free agency and tacking an extra year of MLB salary onto the end of his career...but I digress).

A few factors beyond those addressed already impact signability from the team's perspective, one of which is unique to college seniors like Appel. First, teams receive compensation in the form of a like-situated selection in the next year's draft when they fail to sign a player chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. For example, the Pirates have the 9th choice in this year's draft as compensation for Appel spurning their 2012 offer. Second, teams lose the slot value from their bonus pool when they fail to sign a player selected with that slot. For example, Cubs' entire bonus pool in 2013 is $10,556,500. The #2 overall pick has a bonus of $6,708,400 while their second round pick is $1,361,900. If they fail to sign their second round pick, they cannot assign $1,361,900 to other players; they lose that money completely, reducing their bonus pool to $9,194,600. Drafting a player who the team plans not to sign has no benefit. Finally, MLB moved up the signing deadline for high school and collegiate junior players to July 15. However, that deadline does not apply to college seniors who must sign before one week prior to the 2014 draft. As such, Appel is likely to wait until all of the Cubs other picks have signed and then demand at least the entire bonus pool plus 5%. If the nine picks other than Appel have signed for a total of $3.2M, Appel would make the following offer:

$11,084,325 (total pool + 5%) - $3.2M (amount spent) - $1 (to keep Cubs below 5% overage) = $7,884,324.

Given that the recommended bonus for the top overall pick is $7,790,400, Appel would have an almost impossible time turning down that amount.

3. Need v. "Best Player Available"
One quick final note. Generally football fans want their teams to draft the "best player available" regardless of that player's position. In the baseball draft, given the extreme gap between draft day and the draftees Major League debut, this argument gets pushed to the extreme. I'm often frustrated by the argument in football, but it pushes me over the edge in baseball. It is absurd to always take BPA. For example, if the top player on a team's draft board is a catcher when their selection comes up in every round of the draft, should they select 40 catchers? Of course not. Teams should always determine the relative value of a pick, even in baseball. Teams can almost always choose pitchers and they can almost always select up-the-middle position players. But with Anthony Rizzo signed for the next nine years and Dan Vogelbach a top-five position player prospect, should the Cubs take Colin Moran - a likely long-term first baseman - if they like him 1% more than Mark Appel? No way.

With all of that out of the way, enjoy the draft and dreams of 2016!