JFF's tenure sure has been a whirlwind. In the sanctions years of 2014 and 2015, Nittany was spunky but crappy, yielding a pair of 7-6 seasons led by future NFL Draft mega-bust Christian Hackenberg. 2016 got off to a brutal start with a close loss at Pitt and a 39-point loss at the Big House. Then they won nine straight, including a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten championship. Two losses in 2017 by a combined four points en route to an 11-2 season capped by a New Year's Six win. Two tight losses in 2019 en route to another 11-2 season capped by a NY6 win. 2020 was...whatever. 2021 was brutal disappointment after brutal disappointment: losses by 3 (Iowa), 2 (Illinois in 9OT), 9 (@ OSU), 4 (Michigan), and 3 (@ MSU) before a bowl season full of opt-outs.
2016-19 featured a bevy of big upset wins, but also a few losses as solid favorites; here's looking at you, Sparty.
2022-24 has been the opposite. Nittany is 34-1 as a favorite, with the lone loss coming in last year's Peach Bowl with a shell roster full of opt-outs. Conversely, they're 0-6 as underdogs.
That 0-6 record is bad news for me, given that Notre Dame is a 1.5-point favorite. But it's good news for TV viewers: only 2022 Michigan was a blowout (24-point loss) whereas the other five games were tight. A 13-point loss v. OSU where Nittany led with 10 minutes left, an 8-point loss @ OSU, a 9-point loss v. Michigan (the infamous 32 straight runs game), a 7-point loss v. OSU, and an 8-point loss v. Oregon.
It got me thinking: how did Nittany do against the spread in these matchups? Well...
- 2022 @ Michigan: Spread: +7. Result: 17-41. Result v. spread: -17
- 2022 v. OSU: Spread: +15.5. Result: 31-44. Result v. spread: +2
- 2023 @ OSU: Spread: +4.5. Result: 12-20. Result v. spread: -3.5
- 2023 v. Michigan: Spread +5.5. Result: 15-24. Result v. spread: -3.5
- 2024 v. OSU: Spread: +3. Result: 13-20. Result v. spread: -4
- 2024 v. Oregon: Spread: +3. Result: 37-45. Result v. spread: -5
Not great, Bob! They failed to cover in five of the six games despite only getting blown out in one of those six losses.
Speaking of not getting blown out...
Franklin got absolutely walloped by the first four top-10 ranked opponents he faced at PSU, losing to 2014 MSU, 2015 OSU, 2015 MSU, and 2016 Michigan by a combined 176-46. Non-competitive. Since then, Nittany has faced 19 top-10 opponents. Nittany is just 5-14 straight up with 40% of those wins coming in the last two weeks...but they're 11-8 against the spread. And, among those 8 non-covers, they were within 5 points of the spread six times. The only two times they failed to cover by more than 5 were a pair of shellackings at the Big House in 2018 and 2022.
The Orange Bowl is not the Big House and Notre Dame is not Michigan. Add it all up and the odds are pretty darn clear: Nittany should lose a close game by between 2 and 8 points.
Prepare for heartbreak, Nittany Nation!
But wait a minute. Is it possible that Drew Allar and the Penn State offense can flip the script, propelling Penn State to victory? Sure! It's possible. And there's two players that I see as most likely to fuel the win if it happens, the guys that everyone is talking about:
Khalil Dinkins and Luke Reynolds.
Huh? It's really quite simple. Penn State lives in 12 personnel with either Dinkins or Reynolds joining Tyler Warren on the field, and even leans into 13 personnel with regularity, featuring all three on the field at the same time. If this sounds like what Michigan, Iowa, and Illinois have tried to do to Penn State over recent years, that's because this is precisely the type of gameplan that Penn State has been on the receiving end of recently.
So, lean into it. Penn State's WRs stand basically no chance of getting open against Notre Dame's secondary, and even when Drew Allar throws them dimes on 50/50 balls, they catch almost none of them. So take them out of the gameplan. Run an offense that features Trey Wallace out wide with one of Omari Evans/Julian Fleming/Liam Clifford rotating on the other side to keep the defense honest. That frees up a TE to block a S or even a CB. This is surely Penn State's best path to victory. Notre Dame is an independent team that is really an ACC team -- their scheduled featured 5 ACC teams, 2 Big Ten teams, 2 MAC teams, 2 service academies, and 1 SEC team -- and their Big Ten opponents (Purdue and USC) don't play "Big Ten" football. Notre Dame hasn't had to face a team that lives in 12 personnel until facing Georgia with their backup QB. Notre Dame's win last week was arguably the most impressive win that any team has had in the CFP this season, Penn State should absolutely make them do it again. If Penn State avoids handing ND touchdowns via turnover and special teams, this game can turn into a rock fight. Penn State's offensive line and rushing attack give them the best chance to win a rock fight.
I'm going to stick with my original prediction from earlier this week and say that Penn State suffers an excruciating loss with a weird score: 17-15 Irish.
But, if I had a little more courage, I'd pick Allar to heavily feature Dinkins and Reynolds in a surprisingly aggressive passing day that effectively ignores the WR room. Come on, Nittany. We Are!
