The last time I ran a mock offseason, the Bears hadn't won since mid-October. They eventually did win again, but not until the calendar flipped to 2025. Yikes. Thankfully, there's only one football game left in the 2024 season before all 32 teams turn their focus to the offseason. We don't need to wait.
I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like this one here. The quick and dirty summary:
- The Bears will cut TE Gerald Everett and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
- GM Ryan Poles will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left, but a year removed from paying a 5th rounder for him, the guess here is that Poles keeps Bates.
- Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same depth of options at DT.
- The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping that Ben Johnson is better than the last four!
Free Agency
The Bears figure to have about $66.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.
Now that PFF has published contract projections, I'll utilize those below.
- Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $82M deal with $50M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of desperate need. This isn't complicated. Park Smith next to RT Darnell Wright and secure the right side as QB Caleb Williams develops. (I've long had Smith pegged at 4/$88M with $65M guaranteed. I think PFF is light.)
- Sign DT Levi Onwuzurike to a 2-year, $16.5M deal with $10M guaranteed. I have routinely mocked Philadelphia DT Milton Williams in this spot and PFF projects Williams for $21M on his next deal...per year! That'll be far too rich for Poles, so instead let's have Coach Johnson lure Onwuzurike to Chicago to join the rotation and add some pop.
- Sign OG James Daniels to a 1-year, $5.5M deal with $3M guaranteed. A reunion with Kevin Zeitler would've made sense were it not for Smith. Unfortunately, almost all of the top free agent interior offensive linemen play RG, so the Bears bring Daniels back after a few years in Pittsburgh. Daniels admittedly played RG for the Steelers, but he began his career at LG and C in Chicago, performing well. He's still just 27, so this is a nice flyer as he returns from an Achilles injury and allows players to develop behind him without being forced into action.
- Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $6M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he improved significantly at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag, especially given the hefty payday likely coming Dalman's way.
- Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal. Barnett isn't a difference maker, but he's a solid citizen along a defensive line in need of some.
- Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
- Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is coming off of a Lisfranc injury and he's 32, but he should be ready for 2025. He's a nice insurance policy for Brisker.
- Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping an RFA.
The above spending utilizes about $50.5M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.
NFL Draft
As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard, and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.
The Bears do have the tasty 39th pick from Carolina as the final piece from the Bryce Young trade, but this year's 4th rounder belongs to Buffalo thanks to the Austin Booker trade last year. With only four picks that can be reasonably counted on to produce 2025 starters, this is a tall task.
With that in mind, here we go!
Bears Trade #10 and a 2026 5th to Seattle for #18, #50, and a 2026 2nd
My rule at #10 remains the same as last month: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham inexplicably slips to #10, make the pick and jump for joy. Otherwise, target a trade down. This is appropriate value as the additional 2nds are quite attractive.
#18: Georgia DE Mykel Williams
Williams is a perfect addition to this roster. A 4-3 DE that fits the roster well and offers top-flight projection.
#39: South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders
I really like Sanders. He's got a tremendous first step and a class 3-technique body.
#41: East Carolina CB Shavon Revel
I really hated how the board broke in this draft. There was a huge early run on OL, leaving none of my favorite targets in the 1st or 2nd rounds. So, Revel it is!
Bears Trade CB Tyrique Stevenson to Pittsburgh for #85
Stevenson is Dan Quinn in Atlanta after 28-3. It's not going to work for him in Chicago. So, especially with Revel on board, Stevenson ships out.
Bears Trade #50 to Pittsburgh for #53 and #121
It's a small drop and my targets should be there still. That said, I was hoping that Penn State S Kevin Winston would be one of my options; he didn't make it.
#53: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery
Ersery is slipping some in PFF's eyes. I don't care. I love him as a prospect, enough to take Ersery over a bevy of other prospects I like even more like Iowa S Sebastian Castro, Texas DT Alfred Collins, and especially Notre Dame S Xavier Watts.
Oh well: the Bears need a big-time developmental OL option.
#72: Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins
Georgia LB Jalon Walker was still on the board; if that was remotely possible, he'd be the pick here.
Instead, though, it's Higgins. A young replacement for Keenan Allen with whom Williams can develop rapport over the coming years.
#85: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
I'm not hunting for a back in this draft, but I can't pass up Henderson at this point given the quality players added before him. Had either of the two players drafted ahead of him made it here -- South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori and Georgia OG Tate Ratledge -- they would've been the pick instead.
#121: Oregon TE Terrance Ferguson
This is an easy choice in this spot. Ferguson can play a meaningful role right away, and Hooper isn't a long-term fit for the squad, so it's essential to find a plausible TE2 in this draft at this point. Ferguson and Ole Miss TE Caden Prieskorn would both work.
#148: Iowa OG Connor Colby
Colby can reach and run, but he's undersized. So, give him a year to put on another 10 pounds and see if he can bulk up to hold up enough in pass protection. He adds another body with Daniels and Amegadjie to raise the floor in the interior.
#197: Tennessee WR Dont'e Thornton
A key recruiting loss for Penn State a few years ago, Thornton has a great frame and little chance to stick as a long-term NFL option. But there's a good starter kit here.
#235: Kansas CB Cobee Bryant
Bryant is ludicrously light in the 170s, but it's worth a shot here to see if he can bulk up enough to stay on the field.
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, FREE AGENT
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Terrance Ferguson
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Jayden Higgins, Tyler Scott, Dont'e Thornton, FREE AGENT
OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Aireontae Ersery
OG (4): Trey Smith, James Daniels, Kiran Amegadjie, Connor Colby
C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Mykel Williams, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Derek Barnett
DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Levi Onwuzurike, T.J. Sanders, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens
ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT
OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Shavon Revel, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Cobee Bryant
S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Jaylon Jones, FREE AGENT
SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT
Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:
As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR room is in deep trouble with an injury to Moore or Odunze. The OL is riddled with injury histories. There are a lot of players who need to develop.
Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features three straight defensive players to start before throwing the QB a bone (he got some help via free agency, too).
This is not my favorite mock. I nailed my goals on the defensive line, but I'm bummed to have missed on the 1st round OTs. But Ersery really takes the edge off.
