I'm going to look at the current roster, take a glance at possible free agent acquisitions, and focus heavily on internal solutions to fill holes. With that in mind, here's a look into the future, all the way to 2015, beginning with the current Major Leaguers. In evaluating each player's likeliest outcome, I am suggesting what I think will happen between now and 2015. For example, while I think that Scott Hairston will likely be traded, I don't think that he will be moved in 2013.
Current Chicago Cubs (Active 25 Man Roster plus David DeJesus)
It's no secret that the current team is nowhere near talented enough to contend. The primary cleanup hitter has a .274 OBP, incredibly outdone by the primary #2 hitter at .264. It's a mess.
I think that the current team's players can be lumped into three categories: players likely to leave as free agents or be released, players likely to be traded in order to return young talent to the organization, and players expected to contribute for the long haul. Sadly, the first two groups are disproportionately large for this team.
Likely to be Released or Leave via Free Agency
1. LF Alfonso Soriano
Note: Much like Carlos Marmol, Soriano suffers from a pair of long-term issues: an extreme strikeout rate and an inability to draw walks. Unfortunately, with age, Soriano has been sapped of his hitting ability, his power has decreased substantially, and the running game is no longer a part of his arsenal. At this point, I don't think anyone would touch him for $1M. For $18M? No chance.
2. CF Ryan Sweeney
Note: I sure hope I'm wrong here. The former top prospect looks the part of big league regular and has produced wonderfully for the Cubs over 111 plate appearances to the tune of .304/.355/.539/.894. While the hitting ability and walk rate are in line with his career, the power is unprecedented. It is possible that he has finally figured things out at 28; unfortunately, that just isn't likely.
3. CF Julio Borbon
Note: Borbon has one skill: speed. He isn't long for the Majors.
4. OF Brian Bogusevic
Note: A good story as a converted pitcher, Bogusevic is unlikely to survive the 2013 season.
5. RP Blake Parker
Note: Organizational filler.
6. RP Shawn Camp
Note: He's 37 with no stuff and the worst numbers of any current Cubs pitcher.
7. RP Henry Rodriguez
Note: It will be wonderful if the Cubs can teach Rodriguez how to command his electric fastball. Unfortunately, on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, I cannot imagine his command is much beyond a 20. Those kinds of pitchers don't stick anywhere for a long time.
8. RP Hector Rondon
Note: The Rule 5 pick has enough stuff to stick around, but his elbow likely won't hold together well enough to give him enough consistency to really command his arsenal: he followed Tommy John surgery with a fractured elbow in 2011.
Trade Candidates
*Note: For purposes of this section, a "great" prospect would be ranked in the top half of the top ten of a team's prospects, a "good" prospect would be in the latter portion of the top ten of a team's prospects, a "decent" prospect would be ranked 11th to 20th for an organization, and a "fringe" prospect would be 20th or later.
1. RF Nate Schierholtz
Note: Schierholtz has been an excellent addition to the 2013 squad, providing across-the-board skills in a strict platoon role. There is always demand for players hitting .293/.342/.563/.905, especially ones generally regarded as average-or-better defenders.
Expected Timing and Return: Plenty of teams could use Schierholtz, particularly the Tigers, Indians, Yankees, Rangers, and the all-in Blue Jays. Schierholtz will leave Chicago very near the All-Star break. I expect a pair of decent prospects or possibly one good prospect in return.
2. CF David DeJesus
Note: DeJesus enjoyed an explosive April followed by a decent May and a dreadful June capped off with a shoulder injury. He is a good citizen and would be welcome in any clubhouse as a fringe starter.
Expected Timing and Return: 2014 trade deadline. The Cubs will exercise his option given the unfortunate timing of his injury, then flip him for one average and one fringe prospect. Unfortunately, defense and chemistry don't go for the same market rate as power.
3. RF Scott Hairston
Note: Supposedly a lefty masher, Hairston hasn't mashed anyone in 2013.
Expected Timing and Return: 2014 deadline. Assuming he returns to his career norms in 2014, some contender will latch on to his platoon bat and give up a fringe prospect for him.
4. 2B Darwin Barney
Note: Barney is an all-glove, no-bat middle infielder. While there are plenty of those who stick in the Majors for years, he's about to cost a whole lot more in an organization with numerous infield prospects inching toward Chicago. It's a perfect storm for Barney.
Expected Timing and Return: 2013 offseason or 2014 deadline. Barney is the kind of player a contender acquires when they need to bridge the gap to an impact youngster who isn't quite ready. He will hold down the fort but his offensive game is too poor to warrant a long-term job. He will bring back only one fringe prospect or two.
5. IF Cody Ransom
Note: At 37, Ransom continues to display good power and nothing else. Thankfully for the Cubs, his power has surged into elite territory (.302 ISO) and he is walking enough to get on-base at a passable rate. Hopefully some team will look past his 34% strikeout rate.
Expected Timing and Return: Deadline day 2013. Ransom will bring back a fringe prospect, which must be a whole lot more than the Cubs expected when they signed him.
6. 3B Luis Valbuena
Note: Valbuena looked like a AAAA talent for a long time, dominating AAA while scuffling in the Majors. An uptick in his walk rate, a slight increase in power, and continued excellent defense at the hot corner has Valbuena looking like a solid platoon regular instead of a fringe Major Leaguer. Unfortunately there is no impact potential in the 27-year-old's game.
Expected Timing and Return: Mid-season 2014. Somebody's 3B or 2B will get injured and Valbuena is an ideal fill-in. His production is good enough that he should bring back a decent prospect.
7. C Dioner Navarro
Note: After a good 2008 season in Tampa Bay, Navarro has done almost nothing to earn his job until this year. He is playing decent defense, drawing walks, and hitting for great power, especially versus left-handed pitching.
Expected Timing and Return: ASAP. Navarro should be some contender's backup catcher and bench bat to face situational lefties right now. He will only bring back a fringe prospect, but that's fine for a 29-year-old reserve.
8. SP Scott Feldman
Note: Signed after a largely unlucky 2012 campaign, Feldman has been everything the Cubs could have hoped for: reliable, crafty, and lucky (.255 BABIP). His value is as high right now as it likely can be.
Expected Timing and Return: A few weeks before the 2013 deadline. Some starter will suffer an injury, leaving a contender with the need for five or six July-August starts. Enter Feldman, who can smoothly transition to the bullpen if need be. He should net one decent prospect, although a desperate team could push that price up into the good range.
9. SP Matt Garza
Note: Garza is the toughest Cub to predict. There is still a chance that he signs an extension, he could be traded, or his elbow could flare up again. Odds are a few more good starts will have him packing his bags for Washington, Colorado, San Francisco, or the Yankees.
Expected Timing and Return: Garza's next few starts will play a much greater role in determining his value that they would for most pitchers given his injury history. If he pitches well, he should bring back a couple of good prospects with the chance for a great one. If he struggles, it might just be one good one. I expect him to move a week or so before the deadline.
10. RP Kevin Gregg
Note: Picked up off the scrap heap, Gregg is challenging for the club record for consecutive saves to start the season (a bit disingenuous given Gregg's claiming the role in May). He is using a three pitch mix and keeping his fastball down, although he is due for a dud.
Expected Timing and Return: Within a week of the deadline. Effective relievers on poor teams almost always get moved. If he can bring back a decent prospect, it's a huge win for the organization. A fringe player is more likely.
11. RP Carlos Villanueva
Note: Signed to function as a swingman, Villanueva has done just that, providing a couple of months a strong starts before shifting into a prominent relief role.
Expected Timing and Return: 2013 offseason. Villanueva will stick around for the rest of 2013 to make starts after the expected departure of at least one starting pitcher. But some general manager who wants a versatile arm will fork over an average prospect to pick up the solid, steady righty.
1. 1B Anthony Rizzo
Note: The one cornerstone piece in the lineup, Rizzo has shown himself to be the real deal over his first year with the Cubs. Although better suited for the 4th or 5th spot in a contender's lineup given the great-but-not-monstrous status of his game, Rizzo will likely hold down the 3rd spot for another year until someone genuinely pushes him to his more natrual location.
2. SS Starlin Castro
Note: In spite of a disastrous campaign, Castro remains a linchpin of the future. I can't pretend that he has brought much of value; indeed, in my view, he has been the team's worst player in a lost season. Still, there is a .290/.340/.440 shortstop in there somewhere. That's still exceedingly rare. The coaching staff will earn their salary on Castro or lose their jobs trying.
3. C Welington Castillo
Note: He's no 2008 Geovany Soto, but Castillo is a strong defender with a passable offensive game. Given the state of the catching position, that makes him an average starter. The team has to help him rediscover his power stroke. His recent increase in discipline should help. Plenty of teams have made deep playoff runs with excellent defensive catchers batting eighth with minimal offensive contributions. Castillo can be a bit more than that.
4. SP Edwin Jackson
Note: Oh what could have been. Although I've long supported Edwin, Anibal Sanchez's dominating performance thus far is tough to watch. Regardless, Edwin has been himself in almost every statistical category except for two: his almost-career-high .340 BABIP and his full-season worst ERA of 5.84. His FIP is 3.78 compared to 3.85, 3.55, and 3.86 the three preceding years. He's going to be just fine.
5. SP Jeff Samardzija
Note: Samardzija is overwhelmingly likely to spend the next 5-7 years with the Cubs. At 28, he is in his prime and pitching like a frontline starter with strong rate stats across the board. Anyone worried about his not having signed an extension can calm their fears: Samardzija is wisely betting on his talent with over $15M in his pocket despite having only gone through arbitration once. He is only going to get one crack at a big contract, so he is going to make it count. If he pitches well for the next 12 months, expect an extension before the close of the 2014 season with Samardzija anchoring the rotation of a budding contender.
6. SP Travis Wood
Note: The swingman acquired in the Sean Marshall trade turned out to be the hidden gem of the 2013 season. I debated putting Wood in the trade camp - and he may ultimately end up there before 2015 - but I think that he has shown enough improvement in 2013 to warrant an extended look in the rotation. The warning signs are prevalent: an unsustainably low HR/FB rate (5.7%) and an absurdly low BABIP .222. However, he has a better-than-average HR/FB rate for his career and an excellent .262 BABIP, so it's possible that he is the kind of pitcher who consistently outperforms his peripherals. The Cubs have the luxury of seeing that possiblity through over the next year.
7. RP James Russell
Note: Simply put, Russell can pitch. None of his pitches are flashy, but he gets his strikeouts without walking batters. He may turn out to be a lefty specialist (.429 OPS allowed v. lefties, .796 v. righties), but the Cubs can afford to give him another year of facing batters from both sides of the plate before making that determination for good.
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