Thoughts on the Chicago Cubs Extending Nico Hoerner (Yikes!)

I really like Nico Hoerner. That's no small feat. Despite his pedigree as the 24th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, I've never liked Hoerner's profile. It was always clear that he would be able to stick in the middle of a Major League infield, but his offensive profile looked shaky as a prospect, featuring top-notch contact skills but an inability to draw walks or hit for power. He showed tons of promise during his late-2019 cup of coffee with the Cubs, slashing .282/.305/.436 and popping three dingers across just 82 plate appearances while flashing the glovework that fueled his prospect star. Plenty to dream on there!

Then, across 296 plate appearances in 2020-21, Hoerner hit...zero bombs? Zero??? Zero. Yikes! He continually lowered his strikeout rate, but it was clear that power simply wouldn't be a part of his profile, but he did amass a combined walk rate of nearly 10% over that time suggesting that he'd be able to get on base with regularity.

Unfortunately, health concerns reared their head at this point. He missed two months in 2018 with an elbow injury, two more months in 2019 with a wrist injury, and almost all of 2021 with oblique injuries. Yikes! Thankfully, Hoerner has proved remarkably durable since then, including participating in 150+ games each year from 2023-25. To his credit, his health profile now looks promising.

But Hoerner is still a player who needs every bit of his athleticism because the profile only works with twitch and quickness. To his credit, it's a wonderful profile at its peak, where it has resided for the last four years: his twitchiness yields an elite glove, elite baserunning, and enough base hits (mostly singles) to get on base at an average clip. Although there's basically no power in his profile -- he has a sub-.100 ISO over the last three seasons -- the skills that he does have make him a star. Not a superstar but a star nonetheless.

So, his six-year, $141M extension should be a cause for celebration, right? WRONG! Even after deferrals make it more like $130M, this deal is an outrageous risk and a contract with a chance to torpedo the Cubs' chances as we move toward the 2030s. Maybe the Cubs didn't have a choice as next winter's free agent class looks terrible, so Hoerner figured to get a bag from someone. But the Cubs are biting off immense risk here.

Hoerner's profile is delicate. The speed? It's fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness. The defense? It's fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness. His contact tool? Hey, that's not fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness...but players with Hoerner's athleticism profile steal a lot of hits when their athleticism is at its peak but fewer as they age.

If Hoerner loses half a step, the whole profile wobbles. If he loses a whole step, the profile collapses. And there's nothing to fall back on at that point. There's no walk-fueled on-base ability and there's no power.

Yikes!

We've got plenty of players with profiles driven by speed, defense, and contact that lack walks and power. In considering comps for Hoerner's deal, four players came to mind, three of them ex-Cubs. And the results? Well, yikes!

Jason Heyward
The Heyward comp isn't the cleanest for a pair of reasons. First, Heyward had big power in his profile as a Braves prospect and showed above-average power in Atlanta and St. Louis before coming to Chicago. Second, Heyward always showed an above-average ability to draw walks. Nonetheless:

• Six years Pre-Cubs: .268/.353/.431, 118 wRC+, 86 SB, .309 BABIP
• Seven years with the Cubs: .245/.323/.377, 88 wRC+, 32 SB, .277 BABIP

Heyward's elite defense and baserunning pre-Cubs slipped to merely above-average defense and baserunning in Chicago. Add it all up and Heyward pumped out 25.3 WAR in his six years spent in Atlanta and St. Louis, then slipped all the way to 7.1 WAR in his seven years with the Cubs. Heyward gets something of a free pass because the 2016 Cubs won the World Series, but his contract was a disaster and it's fair to assume that his albatross of a deal played a role in the Ricketts family electing to blow up the core of the team in 2021.

Yikes!

Juan Pierre

Pierre and Hoerner don't have the exact same profile, but once again, the similarities are obvious. Pierre had an excellent start to his career through his 2006 season with the Cubs, riding his incredible speed and strong contact skills to a World Series win and a big five-year, $44M deal from the Dodgers before the 2007 season (that was a big deal at the time). When he had his legs, Pierre was productive. When the legs went, well, uh-oh:

• First seven years with Rockies/Marlins/Cubs: .303/.350/.377, 87 wRC+, 325 SB, .319 BABIP
• Seven years with the Cubs: .285/.334/.341, 84 wRC+, 289 SB, .303 BABIP

Pierre's offense hardly cratered, but his defense began to fail later in his career. The result? He amassed 16.6 WAR before free agency -- a 3+ WAR player on average is a very good starter -- but just 7.6 in the seven seasons afterward.

Like Heyward, that's an MLB player. But it's a backup, not a key starter.

Neifi Perez
One of my least favorite Cubs ever despite his limited run with the club. Perez isn't a story about a player whose profile fell apart as he aged. It's a story about a player whose profile throughout his career might show where Hoerner's profile is going. Perez was a truly dreadful offensive player throughout his career. In fact, his lone full season with the Cubs was the best season of his career. Ready for that offensive outburst? .274/.298/.383, good for a 72 wRC+. Woof. Perez's career line of .267/.297/.375 was good for a 58 wRC+, decidedly worse than the career figure of the explosive Ronny Cedeno and nearly identical to Carlos Zambrano (57), a pitcher with a 1.3% career BB%. So yeah, Perez was incredibly bad as a hitter. But he was an average runner and a plus-plus defender up the middle. Add it all up and you get a career WAR of -3.3 over 1,400 games. Replacement level.

Omar Vizquel

The only non-Cub on the list, Vizquel might offer the most appropriate comp. Vizquel began his career with an ultra-elite, historically great glove, plus baserunning, a solid hit tool, a solid ability to draw walks, and absolutely no power whatsoever. Throughout his run in Seattle and Cleveland, Vizquel was good or great every year using this profile. Then he got older and the profile collapsed as the offense vanished, even though his defense remained strong:

• With Seattle/Cleveland: .275/.341/.358, 87 wRC+, 318 SB, .296 BABIP
• Post-Cleveland: .264/.324/.335, 73 wRC+, 86 SB, .289 BABIP

Fueled by his ridiculous glove and a below-average but solid offensive profile, Vizquel proved useful if not terribly impactful, producing 36.2 WAR across his first 16 years. Then the legs went, the offense cratered, and he managed just 6.3 WAR in eight seasons after leaving Cleveland.

The saving grace with Vizquel? He left Cleveland after his age-37 season. If Hoerner remains productive through his age-37 season, the Cubs will be overjoyed. If we look to Vizquel's age-30 through age-35 seasons, we see a template for success: elite defense, plus baserunning, and a .286/.357/.383 batting line (95 wRC+) that added up to 18.0 WAR across six seasons.

Unfortunately, I worry that the six-year stretch for Vizquel above presents the dream scenario with the Cubs and Hoerner: his legs stick around just long enough to allow each part of his profile to play up and he remains highly productive while others carry the hefty offensive load.

Conclusion
It's worthwhile to put all four of the rosy stat lines next to each other -- no, there's no rosy stat line involving Neifi Perez -- so that they can be understood in concert, so here goes:

• Jason Heyward in six years Pre-Cubs: .268/.353/.431, 118 wRC+, 86 SB, .309 BABIP, 25.3 WAR
• Juan Pierre's first seven years with Rockies/Marlins/Cubs: .303/.350/.377, 87 wRC+, 325 SB, .319 BABIP, 16.6 WAR
• Omar Vizquel in 16 seasons with Seattle/Cleveland: .275/.341/.358, 87 wRC+, 318 SB, .296 BABIP, 36.2 WAR
• Nico Hoerner to date (seven seasons): .282/.339/.383, 103 wRC+, 131 SB, 19.7 WAR

I will remain outrageously hopeful that Hoerner follows in Vizquel's footsteps and not in those of Heyward, Pierre, or Perez. If he ends up succeeding the latter group, well...

YIKES!

Pre-Free Agency Chicago Bears 2026 Mock Offseason

The Bears' cap table looks dramatically different today than it did a week ago. Between the stunning retirement of Pro Bowl C Drew Dalman, the release of ILB Tremaine Edmunds, and the trade of WR D.J. Moore to Buffalo, the Bears saw out three of their nine largest cap hits. For some teams, such a set of transactions would result in something like $100M of cap space. But not for the 2026 Bears. These moves combined to leave the Bears with just over $20M of cap space after accounting for signing their Draft class, signing a practice squad, and accounting for minimum cap holds for the remaining roster players.

While it's possible that the Bears recover another $4M from Dalman's signing bonus, it's likely that they enter free agency with roughly this amount of cap space absent some significant contract restructures.

What does this mean? Well, don't expect GM Ryan Poles to go big-game hunting. Could he do so anyway? Sure! I mean, it's Ryan Poles! But I'll be stunned if Maxx Crosby finds his way to Chicago. Let's instead focus on who might actually head this way.

Internal Decisions

The lower-than-expected cap figure of $301.2M was a real blow to the Bears. There just aren't a ton of options for reducing cap figures for returning players. I've been low on Cole Kmet for years, but it sure seems like Poles plans to keep him around. If that's the case, hopefully it comes with a tight extension to lower his 2026 cap hit without adding much future guaranteed money. For now, let's say that there are no restructures and no further significant releases.

The D.J. Moore Trade

Ah, D.J. There's some bizarre notion out there that Moore regressed terribly in 2025. I don't get it. Did his raw numbers slip dramatically? Yes, of course. That's what happens when you go from averaging 135 targets per year, as Moore did from 2019-24, all the way down to 85 targets in 2025. The arrivals of Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland completely reshaped the Bears' passing offense and Moore was the big loser. However, if we apply 135 targets to his season instead of the actual 85 and assume that he produces the same with the increased targets -- as he has for six straight years before 2025! -- Moore would've posted a 80/1,084/10 line. Baller. Of course, he didn't actually post that line, so it's understandable that Poles opted to move Moore from his #3 WR role for cap relief. But his trade does create a new hole as only Burden, Rome Odunze, and Jahdae Walker remain on the roster.

As for the trade itself: dang, that's good value for Moore. While I still think that D.J. has plenty left in the tank, he is outrageoulsy durable -- he has only missed two games in his eight-year career -- and the Bills acquired a pretty nice contract for a plausible #1 WR in his 20s, there's new risk with his profile that wasn't there before coming off of a year in which he got passed over by numerous other quality options. And the Bears, quite frankly, needed the cap relief in order to address other needs.

The trade: the Bears sent Moore and #163 to Buffalo for #60. On the three draft charts, that pegs Moore's value as follows:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 26.2
• Bears Get: 300
• NET: 273.8 (equivalent to pick #63 (late-2nd))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 2.2
• Bears Get: 8.5
• NET: 6.3 (equivalent to pick #85 (mid-3rd))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 419
• Bears Get: 925
• NET: 506 (equivalent to pick #137 (early-5th))

For what it's worth, I think it's fair to question the Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart when it comes to trade values. There's no NFL team that would trade a mid-2nd round pick for a pair of mid-5ths. That's laughable. In the end, let's peg Moore's value as an early 3rd. That sounds fair. I still don't love the trade, but with that value coming back, it's fair enough given the significant cap issues facing the club.

Free Agency

I haven't left much space for Poles to address the voluminous needs on this roster, including but not limited to:

• LT
• C
• DE2
• MLB
• S
• S (again)
• WR3
• DT3
• Depth all over the place, especially at S

There are oodles of targets that I'd love to see join the club, starting with DEs Odafe Oweh, Khalil Mack, and Arnold Ebiketie, and then moving to C Tyler Linderbaum. Guys like DT DJ Reader, DT Christian Wilkins (if he can still play), LB Leo Chenal, and LB Alex Singleton would be fun. And the barrage of safeties will be attractive, including Kam Curl, Kevin Byard, Jabrill Peppers, Coby Bryant, Jaquan Brisker, Alohi Gilman, Nick Cross, and Tony Jefferson, among a few others. But the resources are limited. I'm using PFF contract projections here. Let's go.

• DE Arnold Ebiketie: 2-years, $16M
• This is DE3 money for Ebiketie. He's the opposite of what Dennis Allen wants, but the Bears desperately need pass rush productivity and Ebiketie has delivered that throughout his career despite underwhelming run defense.
• S Alohi Gilman: 2-years, $13.5M
• This is probably functionally a one-year deal. That's fine. It's a strong draft class and one starter will surely come from the college ranks.
• WR DeAndre Hopkins: 1-year, $2M
• Have the Bears become a destination for a ring-chasing vet? That would be cool!
• DT Shelby Harris: 1-year, $2M
• Ben Johnson has familiarity with Harris from their time together in Detroit. He's clearly nearing the end of his career, but he should provide solid production before it's all over.
• TE Charlie Kolar: 1-year, $1.75M
• A nice TE3 who could plausibly handle TE2 duties if Kmet gets shipped out.
• C Luke Fortner: 1-year, $1.005M
• Fortner was dreadful for the Jaguars in 2022-23 and didn't make it through his rookie deal. Forced into duty with New Orleans last year, he was pretty good. Hopefully he doesn't start but it wouldn't be the worst thing to have a plausible body in house prior to the Draft.
• LB D'Marco Jackson: 1-year, $1.005M
• Jackson is actually a pretty high priority. He played great in limited run last year but also played just 76 snaps across his first three professional seasons. The Bears can likely offer a starting job.
• S Jaylon Jones: 1-year, $1.005M
• Still no star, Jones is a solid citizen in a room desperately needing them.

This trip through free agency leaves the Bears entering the Draft with only Theo Benedet and Kiran Amegadjie on the roster as possible LT options. Yikes!

Draft

With that imperfect yet generally productive free agency period complete, the Bears look to the Draft to add the last batch of new talent to the roster.

Unfortunately, this Draft featured a wild run on DL early. My options at #25 were limited, but thankfully, one strong choice remained.

#25: Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald

McDonald isn't my favorite prospect, but for a team with a dreadful run defense in 2025, McDonald is just what the doctor ordered.

Bears trade #57 to Arizona for #65, #104, and a 2026 4th

I remain deeply concerned about the roster's depth, so nabbing additional picks when there aren't surefire draft targets on the board is the way to go. This trade is superb value.

#60: Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton

DDS has always had better measurables than production. But man, the measurables are insane. He just blew the lid off of the Combine and brings the prototypical physique in the Bears defense. He'd be a great get.

#65: Iowa RT Gennings Dunker

Dunker was a pure RT at Iowa who also worked at G at the Senior Bowl. The Bears have needs at LT and C, so why take Dunker? Simple: this is a bet that drafting awesome OL from Iowa is always the best idea. Get them in house and figure out the rest later.

#89: Arizona S Genesis Smith

Smith has all of the right features to make the Bears defense work in the back end. He had a productive Combine with his run defense the only reason he might last this long

I wanted to draft Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt instead, but duty calls. The Bears need a starter at S.

#104: Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

I'll be overjoyed if Poles manages to nab Wheatley in the 3rd round. Getting him early in the 4th is an outrageous victory. Wheatley is a ballhawking turnover machine with surprisingly excellent run defense. He's old (24), but that's primarily the result of waiting for his turn in a loaded Penn State S room.

#129: Duke OL Brian Parker II

Ugh. This one hurt. I really wanted to take TCU WR Eric McAlister or Baylor TE Michael Trigg, but Parker is too intriguing and too important in light of Dalman's retirement. When I read about Parker and saw his testing, I immediately thought of Bucs' 2024 1st rounder Graham Barton. Parker isn't as good of a prospect and Barton hasn't been great as a pro, but a multi-year Duke starting OT moving to C in the NFL can work and Parker's Combine suggests that he'll be able to move well.

#239: Utah LB Lander Barton

Barton looks like an NFL player. With lots of experience at LB, some time at H-back, and a profile that screams NFL special teamer, he seems like a good bet to make the roster. Punting LB until this point does put undue stress on Ruben Hyppolite to be OK at football. Yikes!

#241: Indiana TE Riley Nowakowski

He's wildly undersized, but Nowakowski has lots of NFL traits. 

The resulting roster again looks very good, though there are spots available for veteran free agents and undrafted rookies.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet, Charlie Kolar, Riley Nowakowski

WR (5): Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, DeAndre Hopkins, FREE AGENT

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Kiran Amegadjie, Theo Benedet

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Gennings Dunker

C (3):   Luke Fortner, Luke Newman, Brian Parker II

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Arnold Ebiketie, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Dani Dennis-Sutton

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Shelby Harris, Kayden McDonald

ILB (1): D'Marco Jackson

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite, Lander Barton

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (4):  Alohi Gilman, Genesis Smith, Zakee Wheatley, Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Proof from PFF below:

That's a seriously good looking team, although long-term injuries to Trapilo, Odeyingbo, Edwards, and Sewell overstate the extent to which holes are plugged. The cap table is tight in 2026, but things really open up in 2027 even as a huge Darnell Wright extension figures to enter the party.

We'll see where Poles takes things on Monday. Here's hoping that he elects to hoard picks instead of sending them to Vegas!