General Manager Jed Hoyer sang beautiful music to the ears of long-suffering Cubs fans today when he expressed a desire to add veterans to the roster to supplement the team's emerging youth movement. The addition of legitimate major league talent is needed and welcome.
Some folks think that this likely means the addition of a mid-tier free agent on a short- or medium-term deal such as platoon OF Seth Smith or perhaps SP Brandon McCarthy. Smith would be an excellent offensive partner for Justin Ruggiano in an outfield corner and McCarthy would be a solid addition, provided that his impossible 21.4% HR/FB% dropped.
But there's no sense in thinking small. Let's think big. Like really big.
I've thrown around some trade ideas in recent weeks in various places (if the Marlins fall back, would they take OF Albert Almora, OF Jorge Soler, 2B/UTIL Arismendy Alcantara, and RP C.J. Edwards for OF Giancarlo Stanton? They'd certainly consider the deal), but I've long been a proponent of signing talent, viewing trades as an inefficient transfer of talent: given the option, why trade young talent to acquire older talent when you can just acquire older talent for cash? The notion of the overpay grinds me. First off, it's not any of our money except for the Ricketts family. Second, we're among the five richest clubs in the sport. And third, is it really an overpay to spend $25M per year on Masahiro Tanaka when David Price would cost you $23M per year plus four of your best prospects? That question answers itself.
So let's imagine a 2014-15 offseason in which the Cubs decide that their time has come to supplement the youth movement with marquee veteran acquisitions. Sure, these contracts will almost certainly end up being less efficient that having the first six years of Kris Bryant's career filling all eight spots in the lineup or having a rotation with five Sonny Grays, but this roster is attainable within the parameters of reasonable spending for the Cubs without mortgaging the future in any way.
Without further adieu, imagine the following transactions and the excitement that they would generate:
Transaction #1: Cubs trade SP Jason Hammel and 3B Christian Villanueva to Milwaukee Brewers for OF Tyrone Taylor and RP Taylor Williams
Why Milwaukee Does It: The Brewers are sitting atop the NL Central on the strength of a great offense, but their starting pitching ranks 28th in MLB in WAR with Marco Estrada's -0.6 WAR particularly damning; he was recently lifted from the rotation to make way for 25-year-old prospect Jimmy Nelson. Hammel would be a solid upgrade for a rotation in need of his steadying presence. Villanueva gives them a second division 3B prospect to step in for Aramis Ramirez, a free agent at year's end. Taylor and Williams are both years away from helping, with Taylor still very raw and Williams likely headed to the bullpen.
Why the Cubs Do It: Hammel is producing extremely well right now. Too well. He doesn't figure to stay this strong and when he regresses, he's just a guy three months from free agency. He doesn't fit the medium- or long-term plan, so extracting value makes sense. Villanueva is completely superfluous given Bryant and even Javier Baez pushing him for the 3B job in addition to Luis Valbuena and even the remains of Mike Olt's bat. Taylor gives the Cubs an athletic CF candidate who needs lots of work and time while Williams fits the mold of undersized righty likely destined for the bullpen with big stuff.
Closing Thought: The basic idea is to trade Hammel for a decent return. I suspect that this will happen relatively soon.
Transaction #2: Cubs sign SP Jeff Samardzija to 6 year, $110M extension covering 2015-20 seasons sometime prior to late October (assume $10M in Y1, then $20M each year thereafter)
Why Samardzija Does It: This is a lot of money. This deal gives him effectively the market rate in covering five free agent years for ages 31-35. That's tough to pass up. He's a NW Indiana kid who should be attracted to the idea of being around when the win totals push into the 90s.
Why the Cubs Do It: Simply put, Samardzija has blossomed into what the Cubs dreamed he would. Maybe he's not quite an ace, but he's an excellent #2 on a championship club with superb pitches who continually shows increased aptitude when it comes to pitching. By all accounts, he's a well-liked teammate and the Cubs need to find top-end pitching somewhere. It's sitting right under their noses.
Closing Thought: Trading Samardzija just doesn't make all that much sense with so many huge offensive pieces close to arriving.
Transaction #3: Cubs sign SP James Shields to 4 year, $80M contract covering the 2015-18 seasons with a mutual option for 2019 (something like $25M option, $4M buyout)
Why Shields Does It: Cash money! And the Cubs are on the rise while the Royals have stagnated. Shields needs a team that can win in the next couple of years if he's going to find a ring.
Why the Cubs Do It: Max Scherzer has never posted a groundball rate above 42%, being under 37% for the last three years. While that works in cavernous Comerica Park, it's less likely to succeed in Chicago. Shields, on the other hand, has the complete package: a solid strikeout rate (7.73/9), an excellent walk rate (2.18/9), a reasonable home run rate that has been good for three years, and an xFIP between 3.24 and 3.72 for the last five years. Everyone wants younger guys; the old guys are about to become the next market inefficiency and the Cubs pounce.
Closing Thought: Shields relies most heavily on his cutter and his changeup, throwing just 40% fastballs. He should age well and the Oliver projection system loves him just as much as Scherzer even though the market is likely to dictate much less for Shields.
Transaction #4: Cubs sign SP Jon Lester to 5 year, $120M contract covering the 2015-19 seasons
Why Lester Does It: This only works if he feels slighted by the Boston front office and feels some affinity for Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod. I have to imagine that they can sell him on their ability to build a winner with him anchoring the pitching staff.
Why the Cubs Do It: This is the signing that makes less sense on paper than any other as Lester would be paid for his ages 31-35 seasons while he has been a steady, non-star performer for ages 27-30. Lester gets lots of bonus points for the intangibles/leadership/experience/playoff success jumble of hard-to-quantify value.
Closing Thought: Lester is just a good pitcher who should age reasonably well as his walk rate has been dropping for years and his fastball velocity is holding relatively steady at 92. He's very attractive for quantifiable and non-quantifiable reasons.
Transaction #5: Cubs sign OF Seth Smith to 2 year, $15M contract covering the 2015-16 seasons
Why Smith Does It: Smith turns 32 in September and has made just under $12M in his career. This is a big payday. It's possible that something will give him significantly more, but even a big spike in production this year can't hide the fact that he's clearly a platoon outfielder with serious splits.
Why the Cubs Do It: To buy some time for Soler and Almora and to infuse the lineup with some additional on-base ability. Plus, with so many early-to-mid-20s bats filling the lineup, Smith could provide some day-to-day leadership.
Closing Thought: I love thoughtful platoons.
That's five big transactions: one trade, one extension, and three free agent splashes. I certainly don't expect the Cubs to pull off these exact moves, but I think that it's important to evaluate what exactly such an offseason would mean (and regular season trade in the case of Hammel). Provided that these moves were made, here is the approximate 2015 roster by mid-April when Baez, Bryant, and Alcantara can all be called up without attaining a full year of service time:
Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester - $24M
Jeff Samardzija - $10M
James Shields - $20M
Jake Arrieta - 1.8M (approx)
Edwin Jackson - $11M
Analysis: That rotation is superb...and it better be for $66.8M next year. Travis Wood finds himself homeless two years removed from an All-Star appearance. Wood can slot in as the long man in the bullpen or he can be traded with Kyle Hendricks assuming the role of the sixth starter. Whereas Arrieta appears to have turned a corner, Wood is staring down his fourth straight year with his xFIP in the neighborhood of 4.50. Meh.
Relief Pitchers
Hector Rondon - $0.52M (approx)
Neil Ramirez - $0.52M (approx)
Justin Grimm - $0.52M (approx)
Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M (approx)
Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approx)
Wesley Wright - $1.8M (approx)
Brian Schlitter - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: For just $6.31M, that's one heckuva bullpen. There's some solid depth with the wave of pitching prospects ready to make noise and the likes of Zac Rosscup, Blake Parker, and James Russell lurking for jobs. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up.
Catchers
Welington Castillo - $2.9M (approx)
Rafael Lopez - $0.51M (approx)
Analysis: This remains the clear weak link in the organization, although Castillo is an average starter and just $3.41M on the position group keeps the price right.
Infielders
Starlin Castro - $6M
Anthony Rizzo - $5M
Kris Bryant - $0.52M (approx)
Javier Baez - $0.52M (approx)
Luis Valbuena - $2.2M (approx)
Logan Watkins - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: Valbuena has played his way into a valuable utility/bench role with some strong defense, tremendous walking, and now some batting average too. But this infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Castro/Baez, Baez/Castro, and Bryant. Wowzers. $14.76M gets the group in 2015.
Outfielders
Seth Smith - $7.5M
Justin Ruggiano - $3M (approx)
Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M (approx)
Junior Lake - $0.53M (approx)
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M
Analysis: I'm a believer in two things. First, I think Alcantara is bound for CF given an organizational need at the position and Baez and Castro both needing middle infield homes. Second, I think that Junior Lake is the seventh or eighth best starter on an excellent team given his composite contributions to the team. With that in mind, the Smith-Ruggiano platoon in LF provides the club with a strong bench bat and a strong #2 hitter each day. The platoon is expensive, but it provides Soler and Kyle Schwarber with the necessary development time. This group comes with a $13.05M price tag.
Given a $66.8M rotation, $6.31M bullpen, $14.76M infield, and $13.05M outfield, the total spending for 2015 would be $100.92M on the 25-man roster. That would represent a significant jump from this year's payroll where the entire 40-man roster ate up just under $77M; adding in dead money for Alfonso Soriano and Scott Hairston pushes that number to approximately $91.5M. Filling the remainder of the 2015 40-man roster with minimum salary players, the 40-man number would reach approximately $108.7M. Adding in contract buyouts for Kyuji Fujikawa and Jose Veras gets the number to just shy of $109.5M.
So there it is. The Cubs could field arguably the top rotation in baseball with Lester-Samardzija-Shields-Arrieta-Edwin and roll with the following everyday lineup:
LF Smith/Ruggiano
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
SS/2B Castro
CF Alcantara
RF Lake
C Castillo
Even if that lineup would have some ups and downs, it would nonetheless be an interesting group and an exciting one with Soler, Almora, and Schwarber all potentially pushing for jobs by 2016 or constituting excellent trade bait. If you want to have even more lineup fun, just imagine Dan Jennings saying no to an offer of Soler, Almora, Edwards, Johnson, and Dan Vogelbach for Giancarlo Stanton. The lineup would admittedly increase in expense to around $120M for the 2015 40-man roster, although the increase could largely be offset by declining to sign Seth Smith. A batting order of...
CF Alcantara
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
SS/2B Castro
LF Lake
C Castillo
...actually makes me drool. Wowzers. All of this is within reach.
No comments:
Post a Comment