NOTE: I cannot, for the life of me, figure out why much of the post below appears in strange, faded type. If I had a better idea how to operate this darn thing, I'd fix it.
With only Day Three of the 2015 MLB Draft left to unfold, lets take a look at the Chicago Cubs' top ten selections.
The Cubs total bonus pool for the 2015 draft for picks in rounds 1-10 and for any bonus amount over $100,000 for a pick in rounds 11-40 is $7,236,100. Given that teams may exceed their pool by 5% before incurring the painful loss of future picks, the effective pool is really $7,597,905. With that in mind, here's a look at the picks. You can click on the player's name for a video.
2B/OF Ian Happ, University of Cincinnati (Junior)
Draft Spot: 1.9 (#9 overall)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 205 lbs.
With only Day Three of the 2015 MLB Draft left to unfold, lets take a look at the Chicago Cubs' top ten selections.
The Cubs total bonus pool for the 2015 draft for picks in rounds 1-10 and for any bonus amount over $100,000 for a pick in rounds 11-40 is $7,236,100. Given that teams may exceed their pool by 5% before incurring the painful loss of future picks, the effective pool is really $7,597,905. With that in mind, here's a look at the picks. You can click on the player's name for a video.
2B/OF Ian Happ, University of Cincinnati (Junior)
Draft Spot: 1.9 (#9 overall)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 205 lbs.
Bat/Throw: S/R
Date of Birth: 8/12/94 (age 20 years, 10 months)
Slot Bonus: $3,351,000
Projected Bonus: $3,200,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $151,000
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 50 power, 55 discipline, 50 arm, 40 glove, 50 run
Pick Analysis: Happ was on my "Do Not Draft" list for a seemingly obvious reason: Happ is defensively homeless. His infield actions are ugly and sloppy, suggesting that second base isn't a truly feasible option for him. Happ is a good - not great - athlete, suggesting that centerfield would be a difficult assignment as well. Unfortunately, that leaves him targeted for left field, a position for which his bat almost certainly cannot prove adequate.
That said, there's a lot to like about Happ's bat. He has suffered an alarming rise in strikeout rate, from just over 12% as a freshman to 19.4% as a junior, but the strikeout rise was accompanied by a big uptick in game power and a consistently superb walk rate that also sat at 19.4% as a junior. Happ's swing from the left side looks very good, portending both average-or-better power and plus hit. With his average-or-better approach, Happ should be a nice contributor against right-handed pitching, especially given his ability to spray the ball all over the field. I don't like his swing from the right side nearly as much as I don't see the power arriving, but his on-base skills should remain. Happ's offensive game would be plus at either second or in center, but his glove threatens to push him to a spot where the offense is underwhelming.
Date of Birth: 8/12/94 (age 20 years, 10 months)
Slot Bonus: $3,351,000
Projected Bonus: $3,200,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $151,000
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 50 power, 55 discipline, 50 arm, 40 glove, 50 run
Pick Analysis: Happ was on my "Do Not Draft" list for a seemingly obvious reason: Happ is defensively homeless. His infield actions are ugly and sloppy, suggesting that second base isn't a truly feasible option for him. Happ is a good - not great - athlete, suggesting that centerfield would be a difficult assignment as well. Unfortunately, that leaves him targeted for left field, a position for which his bat almost certainly cannot prove adequate.
That said, there's a lot to like about Happ's bat. He has suffered an alarming rise in strikeout rate, from just over 12% as a freshman to 19.4% as a junior, but the strikeout rise was accompanied by a big uptick in game power and a consistently superb walk rate that also sat at 19.4% as a junior. Happ's swing from the left side looks very good, portending both average-or-better power and plus hit. With his average-or-better approach, Happ should be a nice contributor against right-handed pitching, especially given his ability to spray the ball all over the field. I don't like his swing from the right side nearly as much as I don't see the power arriving, but his on-base skills should remain. Happ's offensive game would be plus at either second or in center, but his glove threatens to push him to a spot where the offense is underwhelming.
Fortunately for Happ, age is on his side as he won't turn 21 until after he makes his debut in affiliated ball. I think Happ could post .280/.350/.440 batting lines at maturity with his defensive profile dictating just how valuable he is.
I don't like the pick of Happ - I would have preferred LHP Brady Aiken, RHP Jon Harris, CF Daz Cameron (even with his $5M+ demand), LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Mike Nikorak, OF Nick Plummer, and even seriously flawed RHPs Michael Matuella and Cody Ponce - but I'm hoping that I'm dead wrong for the second straight draft. Given that Happ was unlikely to fall past the Reds at #11, he figures to get darn close to full slot money.
CF Donnie Dewees, University of North Florida (Junior)
Draft Spot: 2.5 (#47 overall)
Height, Weight: 5'11", 180 lbs.
Height, Weight: 5'11", 180 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/L
Date of Birth: 9/29/93 (age 21 years, 8 months)
Slot Bonus: $1,292,100
Projected Bonus: $1,292,100
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $0
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 45 power, 45 discipline, 25 arm, 55 glove, 65 run
Pick Analysis: Dewees is a very interesting prospect. The videos of him are extremely confusing. His swing is simultaneously underwhelming - he doesn't generate great bat speed - and pretty impressive - he has his barrel in the zone for an extended period in basically every video I saw, even when he pops out. He somehow barreled 18 homers this year, though I'm not sure how. He doesn't figure to hit for even average power at maturity.
Date of Birth: 9/29/93 (age 21 years, 8 months)
Slot Bonus: $1,292,100
Projected Bonus: $1,292,100
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $0
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 45 power, 45 discipline, 25 arm, 55 glove, 65 run
Pick Analysis: Dewees is a very interesting prospect. The videos of him are extremely confusing. His swing is simultaneously underwhelming - he doesn't generate great bat speed - and pretty impressive - he has his barrel in the zone for an extended period in basically every video I saw, even when he pops out. He somehow barreled 18 homers this year, though I'm not sure how. He doesn't figure to hit for even average power at maturity.
On the other hand, Dewees is really darn fast, something that should enable his glove to play up above average in centerfield. He should also have the opportunity to swipe 20+ bags at maturity, assuming his bat justifies an everyday role.
There's plenty to like with Dewees, though he drew stunningly few walks for a player with such good power against seemingly inferior competition in the Atlantic-Sun Conference. He should have a very high floor as his speed and glove should have him in consideration for a reserve outfielder job relatively quickly. But there's a good bit of projection left with him as well as an uptick in any of his offensive tools - hit, power, or discipline - could push him toward being a true plus prospect.
Dewees was in consideration in the middle of the first round, so he figures to get at least his slot value, if not a bit more. I like getting Dewees at #47 a lot. He could get to .290/.335/.430 at maturity with the chance to swipe 20 bags and average defense in center with his noodle arm the only thing holding him back out there. He reminds me a lot of Sam Fuld. You can do worse.
LHP Bryan Hudson, High School (Illinois)
Draft Spot: 3.7 (#82 overall)
Height, Weight: 6/8", 220 lbs.
Height, Weight: 6/8", 220 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/L
Date of Birth: 5/8/97 (age 18 years, 1 month)
Slot Bonus: $731,000
Projected Bonus: $900,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$169,000
Scouting Report: 50 FB, 65 CB, 40 CH, 50 Command
Pick Analysis: There's just a ton to like about Hudson and this pick. His fastball isn't quite an average pitch just yet, sitting regularly in the high-80s without much movement, but he should be able to kick it up to the 90-91 range with a bit of growth and strength. His changeup is underwhelming at present and he'll need to find the pitch to stick as a starting pitcher given the ability of teams to load up on right-handed hitters.
Date of Birth: 5/8/97 (age 18 years, 1 month)
Slot Bonus: $731,000
Projected Bonus: $900,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$169,000
Scouting Report: 50 FB, 65 CB, 40 CH, 50 Command
Pick Analysis: There's just a ton to like about Hudson and this pick. His fastball isn't quite an average pitch just yet, sitting regularly in the high-80s without much movement, but he should be able to kick it up to the 90-91 range with a bit of growth and strength. His changeup is underwhelming at present and he'll need to find the pitch to stick as a starting pitcher given the ability of teams to load up on right-handed hitters.
But the curveball. My goodness, the curveball. Hudson could probably use the 75-78 offering right now in games. It figures to be a monster delivery.
I don't have concerns with his mechanics, but it's clear that he needs to put on about 20 pounds of muscle if he's going to have a chance to keep himself healthy and effective. His delivery is smooth but there doesn't appear to be much push coming from his lower half. Thankfully, Hudson just turned 18 last month, so there's plenty of time for growth here. He's a strong pick in this spot with a shot to be a mid-rotation starter based on the physique and present curveball with plenty of projectability elsewhere. He just needs to work out and pitch for a few years.
CF Darryl ("DJ") Wilson, High School (Ohio)
Draft Spot: 4.8 (#113 overall)
Height, Weight: 5/8", 177 lbs.
Height, Weight: 5/8", 177 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/L
Date of Birth: 10/8/96 (age 18 years, 7 months)
Slot Bonus: $503,100
Projected Bonus: $900,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$396,900
Scouting Report: 50 hit, 30 power, 50 discipline, 45 arm, 50 glove, 60 run
Pick Analysis: There's plenty to like about Wilson. First, as a Vanderbilt commit, I feel comfortable stating that the kid can play baseball. Vanderbilt doesn't recruit subpar ballplayers. Second, despite his small stature and his run-first profile, Wilson has enough arm to actually handle an everyday job in center. Third, while power never figures to be a part of his repertoire, Wilson should hit enough to get himself on base at a decent clip. It's basically impossible to see him growing into a first-division role, but he could make his way onto a roster at some point.
But to me, Wilson is always going to be "not Alonzo Jones." Jones, a fellow Vanderbilt commit likely headed to centerfield, remains undrafted through 10 rounds, indicating that his bonus demands were such that he priced himself out of this draft. However, I think that Jones should hit for 40+ power with a 50+ hit tool - especially as a lefty - and true, 80-grade speed. Jones ran a 6.17 60-yard dash; for reference's sake, Wilson and his 60-grade speed came in at 6.68 seconds. I would have loved adding Jones to the franchise. Wilson? Wilson is good enough, I guess. This is a solid pick. It's just not the way I hoped the early part of Day Two would unfold, with Jones in the third round and a projectable arm in the fourth.
Slot Bonus: $503,100
Projected Bonus: $900,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$396,900
Scouting Report: 50 hit, 30 power, 50 discipline, 45 arm, 50 glove, 60 run
Pick Analysis: There's plenty to like about Wilson. First, as a Vanderbilt commit, I feel comfortable stating that the kid can play baseball. Vanderbilt doesn't recruit subpar ballplayers. Second, despite his small stature and his run-first profile, Wilson has enough arm to actually handle an everyday job in center. Third, while power never figures to be a part of his repertoire, Wilson should hit enough to get himself on base at a decent clip. It's basically impossible to see him growing into a first-division role, but he could make his way onto a roster at some point.
But to me, Wilson is always going to be "not Alonzo Jones." Jones, a fellow Vanderbilt commit likely headed to centerfield, remains undrafted through 10 rounds, indicating that his bonus demands were such that he priced himself out of this draft. However, I think that Jones should hit for 40+ power with a 50+ hit tool - especially as a lefty - and true, 80-grade speed. Jones ran a 6.17 60-yard dash; for reference's sake, Wilson and his 60-grade speed came in at 6.68 seconds. I would have loved adding Jones to the franchise. Wilson? Wilson is good enough, I guess. This is a solid pick. It's just not the way I hoped the early part of Day Two would unfold, with Jones in the third round and a projectable arm in the fourth.
LHP Ryan Kellogg, Arizona State University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 5.8 (#143 overall)
Height, Weight: 6/6", 230 lbs.
Bat/Throw: R/L
Date of Birth: 2/4/94 (age 21 years, 3 months)
Slot Bonus: $376,700
Projected Bonus: $400,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$23,300
Scouting Report: 40 FB, 40 CB, 40 SL, 55 CH, 50 Command
Pick Analysis: By all accounts, Kellogg would have been drafted much higher had he been able to enter the draft two years ago. After an extremely exceptional freshman year at Arizona State for the Canadian, Kellogg didn't show much in the way of improvement over the subsequent two years. While his strikeout rate finally ticked up this year, his homer rate climbed over each of his last two seasons and his H/9 never replicated his freshman season.
On the plus side, Kellogg never once issued even 2.0 BB/9 over his three seasons. Importantly for a lefty with dreams of starting, his changeup is his best pitch.
Unfortunately, there's not much ceiling in the overall package. Kellogg has some inefficiency in his delivery with his front foot coming down too soon, something that likely saps some of his velocity and keeps him in the high-80s. His curveball doesn't have much bite despite sitting in the 70s.
It's tough to see Kellogg ever turning into anything more than a swingman, but there's a non-zero chance that smoothing out his mechanics helps his velocity tick up a bit, something that could help Kellogg kick up a grade as he so desperately needs to do.
Date of Birth: 2/4/94 (age 21 years, 3 months)
Slot Bonus: $376,700
Projected Bonus: $400,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$23,300
Scouting Report: 40 FB, 40 CB, 40 SL, 55 CH, 50 Command
Pick Analysis: By all accounts, Kellogg would have been drafted much higher had he been able to enter the draft two years ago. After an extremely exceptional freshman year at Arizona State for the Canadian, Kellogg didn't show much in the way of improvement over the subsequent two years. While his strikeout rate finally ticked up this year, his homer rate climbed over each of his last two seasons and his H/9 never replicated his freshman season.
On the plus side, Kellogg never once issued even 2.0 BB/9 over his three seasons. Importantly for a lefty with dreams of starting, his changeup is his best pitch.
Unfortunately, there's not much ceiling in the overall package. Kellogg has some inefficiency in his delivery with his front foot coming down too soon, something that likely saps some of his velocity and keeps him in the high-80s. His curveball doesn't have much bite despite sitting in the 70s.
It's tough to see Kellogg ever turning into anything more than a swingman, but there's a non-zero chance that smoothing out his mechanics helps his velocity tick up a bit, something that could help Kellogg kick up a grade as he so desperately needs to do.
RHP Dave Berg, UCLA (Senior)
Draft Spot: 6.8 (#173 overall)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 190 lbs.
Draft Spot: 6.8 (#173 overall)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 190 lbs.
Bat/Throw: R/R
Date of Birth: 3/28/93 (age 22 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $281,900
Projected Bonus: $100,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $181,900
Scouting Report: 40 FB, 40 SL, 70 Command
Pick Analysis: Berg is the first truly difficult pick to peg in the entire bunch. On one hand, the submariner works with an 83 mph sinking fastball and a 78 mph frisbee slider. The stuff isn't wowing anybody.
On the other hand, it's impossible to argue with Berg's results: he issued just 8 walks over 66.2 innings this year and he allowed just 5 home runs in 267 collegiate innings in his time as a Bruin. He strikeout totals were never terribly gaudy, but then again, he struck out nearly a batter per inning as a senior. I've obviously heard the Chad Bradford comps. Berg actually has quite a bit more velocity than Bradford and he has the command to make it play.
Berg could be a really nice, contact-oriented reliever for a number of years. I'm completely dumbfounded regarding his bonus: he may get slot, yet there's a chance that I'm even a bit high at $100,000. Regardless, he should move very quickly as an accomplished big-time collegiate closer.
Date of Birth: 3/28/93 (age 22 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $281,900
Projected Bonus: $100,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $181,900
Scouting Report: 40 FB, 40 SL, 70 Command
Pick Analysis: Berg is the first truly difficult pick to peg in the entire bunch. On one hand, the submariner works with an 83 mph sinking fastball and a 78 mph frisbee slider. The stuff isn't wowing anybody.
On the other hand, it's impossible to argue with Berg's results: he issued just 8 walks over 66.2 innings this year and he allowed just 5 home runs in 267 collegiate innings in his time as a Bruin. He strikeout totals were never terribly gaudy, but then again, he struck out nearly a batter per inning as a senior. I've obviously heard the Chad Bradford comps. Berg actually has quite a bit more velocity than Bradford and he has the command to make it play.
Berg could be a really nice, contact-oriented reliever for a number of years. I'm completely dumbfounded regarding his bonus: he may get slot, yet there's a chance that I'm even a bit high at $100,000. Regardless, he should move very quickly as an accomplished big-time collegiate closer.
RHP Craig Brooks, Catawba College (Senior)
Draft Spot: 7.8 (#203 overall)
Height, Weight: 5'10", 180 lbs.
Bat/Throw: R/R
Date of Birth: 9/23/92 (age 22 years, 8 months)
Slot Bonus: $211,300
Projected Bonus: $20,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $191,300
Scouting Report: Brooks throws a low-90s fastball, a curveball, and a cutter
Pick Analysis: Brooks is the first pick that figures to be have made exclusively with saving money against the bonus pool in mind. That said, he's plenty interesting. I can't find any video, so I won't pretend to post a full scouting report. But from information gleaned from a couple of spots, it's clear that he works with a trio of pitches and that he has strikeout ability given his absurd 14.36 K/9 this year. As a starting pitcher. It's nearly impossible to wrap my head around that, even if he was pitching in Division II.
Brooks was tremendously successful in college, so he's a worthwhile gamble for what figures to be a minimal bonus.
Projected Bonus: $20,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $191,300
Scouting Report: Brooks throws a low-90s fastball, a curveball, and a cutter
Pick Analysis: Brooks is the first pick that figures to be have made exclusively with saving money against the bonus pool in mind. That said, he's plenty interesting. I can't find any video, so I won't pretend to post a full scouting report. But from information gleaned from a couple of spots, it's clear that he works with a trio of pitches and that he has strikeout ability given his absurd 14.36 K/9 this year. As a starting pitcher. It's nearly impossible to wrap my head around that, even if he was pitching in Division II.
Brooks was tremendously successful in college, so he's a worthwhile gamble for what figures to be a minimal bonus.
RHP Preston Morrison, TCU (Senior)
Draft Spot: 8.8 (#233 overall)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 185 lbs.
Draft Spot: 8.8 (#233 overall)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 185 lbs.
Bat/Throw: R/R
Date of Birth: 7/19/93 (age 21 years, 11 months)
Slot Bonus: $174,200
Projected Bonus: $10,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $164,200
Scouting Report: 40 FB, 40 SL, 45 CH, 60 Command
Pick Analysis: Morrison was the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year in 2014, but he achieved the honor in spite of middling stuff. His delivery is nearly sidearm with whippy action that results in plenty of tail on his fastball and middling movement on his slider. As for the stuff itself, he features a mid-80s fastball and a low-70s slider, neither of which figure to even reach even average grades. Thankfully, Morrison added a possibly useful changeup in college. As has been the norm thus far, Morrison rarely issues a free pass.
He's probably nothing more than a middle reliever if everything comes together, but again, the club could do worse on a bonus pool saver.
Date of Birth: 7/19/93 (age 21 years, 11 months)
Slot Bonus: $174,200
Projected Bonus: $10,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $164,200
Scouting Report: 40 FB, 40 SL, 45 CH, 60 Command
Pick Analysis: Morrison was the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year in 2014, but he achieved the honor in spite of middling stuff. His delivery is nearly sidearm with whippy action that results in plenty of tail on his fastball and middling movement on his slider. As for the stuff itself, he features a mid-80s fastball and a low-70s slider, neither of which figure to even reach even average grades. Thankfully, Morrison added a possibly useful changeup in college. As has been the norm thus far, Morrison rarely issues a free pass.
He's probably nothing more than a middle reliever if everything comes together, but again, the club could do worse on a bonus pool saver.
Tyler Peitzmeier, Cal State - Fullerton (Senior)
Draft Spot: 9.8 (#263 overall)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 210 lbs.
Draft Spot: 9.8 (#263 overall)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 210 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/L
Date of Birth: 02/26/93 (age 22 years, 3 months)
Slot Bonus: $162,800
Projected Bonus: $10,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $152,800
Scouting Report: 50 FB, 40 SL, 50 Command
Pick Analysis: As can be expected from a senior arm at this point in the draft, Peitzmeier lacks impressive stuff. That said, there's something interesting about him. His fastball is relatively straight and his slider lacks useful bite, but he does a strange toe drag and a left arm wrap as part of his delivery, something that can mess with the batter's eye plane during the pitch. Peitzmeier has struggled with walks far more than the pitchers listed above, though he did allow his first collegiate home run in 2015, his only homer surrendered over 124 innings. There's definitely some deception that works for the young southpaw, even if the total package is likely that of an organizational arm.
Date of Birth: 02/26/93 (age 22 years, 3 months)
Slot Bonus: $162,800
Projected Bonus: $10,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $152,800
Scouting Report: 50 FB, 40 SL, 50 Command
Pick Analysis: As can be expected from a senior arm at this point in the draft, Peitzmeier lacks impressive stuff. That said, there's something interesting about him. His fastball is relatively straight and his slider lacks useful bite, but he does a strange toe drag and a left arm wrap as part of his delivery, something that can mess with the batter's eye plane during the pitch. Peitzmeier has struggled with walks far more than the pitchers listed above, though he did allow his first collegiate home run in 2015, his only homer surrendered over 124 innings. There's definitely some deception that works for the young southpaw, even if the total package is likely that of an organizational arm.
SS Vimael Machin, VCU (Senior)
Draft Spot: 10.8 (#293 overall)
Height, Weight: 5'11", 185 lbs.
Draft Spot: 10.8 (#293 overall)
Height, Weight: 5'11", 185 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/R
Date of Birth: 9/25/93 (age 21 years, 8 months)
Slot Bonus: $152,000
Projected Bonus: $5,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $147,000
Scouting Report: 40 hit, 35 power, 50 discipline, 30 run, 40 glove, 40 arm
Pick Analysis: Manchin was exclusively added for his bonus demand or lack thereof. He doesn't have the skills to stick around as his bat speed is far too slow while he's not nearly athletic enough to hang on the left side of the infield.
Date of Birth: 9/25/93 (age 21 years, 8 months)
Slot Bonus: $152,000
Projected Bonus: $5,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $147,000
Scouting Report: 40 hit, 35 power, 50 discipline, 30 run, 40 glove, 40 arm
Pick Analysis: Manchin was exclusively added for his bonus demand or lack thereof. He doesn't have the skills to stick around as his bat speed is far too slow while he's not nearly athletic enough to hang on the left side of the infield.
My estimated bonuses yielded $6,837,100 in bonuses for picks from Rounds 1-10 compared to a pool of $7,236,100. Such bonuses would leave the club with $399,000 of wiggle room to allocate to the over-$100,000 bonus portion for any picks in Rounds 11-40. While the ability to give one of those draftees $500,000 to entice him to sign is attractive, it feels difficult to justify the extent to which the Cubs punted the latter half of the top ten rounds.
Overall, I'm underwhelmed by the class thus far. Happ was far from my favorite, and while there's plenty of projectability for Dewees, Hudson, and Wilson, it's not the most enthusiasm-inducing group given the lack of power, both at the dish and on the mound. Perhaps some Day Three surprises will spin things around.
In an earlier piece over at Bleed Cubbie Blue, I had suggested that this could be the year where the Cubs exploit the hole in the CBA by spending wildly in excess of their draft bonus pool. It certainly doesn't appear as though the club will do that, but with perhaps as much as $500,000 to throw around on Day Three, the class could remain interesting.
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