Should Washington Have Made the College Football Playoff over Penn State?

Let me start this post by laying out a few matters:

1. I would have narrowly ranked Michigan ahead of Penn State based on my own evaluations of the teams, but I appreciate that the Committee values specific criteria in comparing similar teams in a way that heavily favored Penn State. I've addressed the PSU v. UM debate with fun, spirited conversation over the last week on Facebook. I'll leave it there.

2. This piece isn't sour grapes. Penn State gave up control of their own fate when they lost to Pittsburgh, and they were completely at the mercy of the football gods when they lost a second September contest.

3. I have no idea how this post will end up - I haven't fully researched the matter yet - so you'll find out how this debate gets settled right along with me.

OK. So here's the deal. Washington made the College Football Playoff over Penn State this year. Both teams won their respective conferences, two of the three best conferences in college football on the season. Of course, Washington lost only one game on the season whereas Penn State lost two, but much has been made of their respective non-conference schedules. Seeing as both teams lost at least one game, point #2 above dictates that neither team should be immune from slipping out of the top four.

I'd like to examine their respective schedules to see whose resume ends up looking stronger. When evaluating squads, I'm heavily partial to S&P+ and, to a lesser degree, the Sagarin ratings, so I'll be ranking teams based on their S&P+ location.

My thought for this exercise is to find the most comparable opponents for each of Penn State and Washington to see how the teams performed against said competition, taking the location of the game into consideration. Without further adieu, here we go.

To start off, we'll take the two most directly comparable games:

Rutgers
Washington beats #120 Rutgers 48-13 (home)
Penn State beats #120 Rutgers 39-0 (away)

This doesn't tell us squat. Next please.

Conference Championship Game
Washington beats #17 Colorado 41-10 (neutral)
Penn State beats #16 Wisconsin 38-31 (neutral)

There's no denying that Washington's win over Colorado was more impressive - in terms of domination and control - than Penn State's win over Wisconsin. It's worth noting that Sefo Liufau's injury severely impacted the game for the Buffaloes, but not so much that it fully explains the gaps between the teams.

Washington takes a lead.

Comparable Ranked Conference Foes
Washington beats #21 Stanford 44-6 (home)
Penn State beats #20 Iowa 41-14 (home)

Again, nearly identical results. Let's keep moving.

Comparable Terrible Conference Foes
Washington beats #89 Arizona State 44-18 (home)
Penn State beats #87 Maryland 38-14 (home)

It's almost creepy how similar these results are.

Comparable Terrible Conference Foes Part 2
Washington beats #100 Arizona 35-28 in OT (away)
Penn State beats #108 Purdue 62-24 (away)

One team took care of business. Another team needed an overtime score and stop to win the game against one of the worst D-I teams.

Any lead that Washington had in our comparison by virtue of their more impressive conference championship game showing is out the window at this point and Penn State likely takes a slight lead.

Home Game Against Crappy Non-Conference Opponent
Washington beats #96 Idaho 59-14 (home)
Penn State beats #113 Kent State 33-13 (home)

Washington makes up a bit of ground here, but comparing the virtues of various three-touchdown home wins against bad opponents is likely a fruitless activity.

To avoid any accusation of bias, let's call the squads even to this point.

Road Game Against Mediocre Conference Opponent
Washington beats #56 California 66-27 (away)
Penn State beats #48 Indiana 45-31 (away)

Washington's win here is certainly more impressive, though again the needle only moves a hair given the caliber of the opponents and the multi-touchdown victories.

Home Game Against Mediocre Conference Foe
Washington beats #62 Oregon State 41-17 (home)
Penn State beats #54 Michigan State 45-12 (home)

The needle stays steady, perhaps lilting ever so slightly toward the Huskies.

Tight Game Against Solid Conference Opponent
Washington beats #40 Utah 31-24 (away)
Penn State beats #37 Minnesota 29-26 in OT (home)

Washington's win is more impressive given that the game was on the road, but one-score victories against comparably ranked conference opponents won't move the needle a ton toward the Huskies.

Road Game Against Regional School Enjoying Strong Season
Washington beats #33 Washington State 45-17 (away)
Penn State LOSES to #26 Pittsburgh 39-42 (away)

The needle has jumped toward the Huskies in a meaningful way. While Pitt was a bit stronger than Washington State this year, Washington enjoyed a comfortable win while the Nittany Lions suffered a close loss.

It'll take something drastic to move the needle back toward Penn State.

Something Drastic
Washington LOSES to #8 USC 13-26 (home)
Penn State beats #3 Ohio State 24-21 (home)

In home games against supremely talented top-10 opponents, the Nittany Lions win while the Huskies lose by two touchdowns.

Comparing these last two bunches makes the evaluation difficult to be sure, but while I'm inclined to put the Nitts slightly ahead given the monumental nature of a win over Ohio State, a playoff-bound squad, I'll put the teams level again.

***It's worth taking a moment to address the fact that not everybody will treat the teams listed above in the same way that I have and that's fine. Perhaps you think Penn State's production was a bit more impressive through those ten games. Maybe you think Washington looks a hair stronger.

It doesn't really matter. The teams are tightly packed at that point.

I bring this up because the comps fall apart at this stage. I'll try anyway.

Early-Season Game Against Regional Foe
Washington beats #69 Oregon 70-21 (away)
Penn State beats #18 Temple 34-27 (home)

Washington's victory over Oregon really opened some eyes. Of course, we now know that this year's Oregon team imploded, finishing last in the Pac-12 North division. The win looks far less impressive with that knowledge.

Conversely, Penn State's tight win over Temple in September was a cause for alarm for most Nittany Lions fans. In retrospect, it was a good win over a Group of 5 conference champion.

Is it better that Penn State narrowly beat a good team or that Washington throttled a crappy one on the road? I'm partial to wins against good teams, but the degree of Washington's win should mean that Penn State only takes the narrowest of leads over the Huskies with one game to go.

The Other Game
Washington beats N/A Portland State 41-3 (home)
Penn State LOSES to #2 Michigan 10-49 (away)

Well this is the debate now, isn't it? Washington played a dreadful Portland State squad that went 3-8 in the FCS's Big Sky Conference. Penn State played an elite Michigan squad in Ann Arbor and got absolutely blasted. Setting aside whether it should be relevant that Penn State played the game without any of its starting linebackers (and then lost two more in the first half), which is a better bullet point on a resume?

I understand the arguments on both sides of the table. Washington won and wins are better than losses. Washington hasn't yet played a top-five team, so they should get a chance to. Conversely, Penn State shouldn't be punished for losing more games given that they played a bevy of tougher opponents. Penn State's ability to beat an elite team should give them a shot against another elite team. There's some merit to all of these notions.

In the end, Washington played one top-10 opponent, going 0-1. Penn State played two top-10 opponents, narrowly defeating Ohio State and getting obliterated at Michigan.

Washington played three top-30 opponents and went 2-1 in those games, crushing both Colorado and Stanford while losing handily to USC. Penn State played six top-30 opponents and went 4-2 in those games, crushing Iowa, narrowly defeating Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Temple, narrowly losing to Pittsburgh, and getting blasted at Michigan.

When I compare the resumes, I'm partial to Penn State's. I know that there's implicit bias in my brain. I also appreciate that I have a hard time evaluating how the Nittany Lions getting absolutely eviscerated by the Wolverines fits into all of this given that contenders so rarely have such a galling blemish on their resumes.

Still, give me a team that has played tougher competition throughout the year and looks as good or better than a team that has played easier foes.

Thankfully for Penn State fans, the consolation prize for missing the playoff is an idyllic afternoon in Pasadena to kick off the new year. While I'd rather see my team win a national championship, a Rose Bowl is truly the next best thing. Gotta find a way past the red-hot Trojans now.