I was as excited for this Nittany season, perhaps more so than any other season in recent memory. 2009 is the closest second of which I can think.
Week 1 against Appalachian State certainly offered more excitement than most expected, myself included. It also expose numerous issues with the team, as well as some surprising signs for optimism.
There's no sense in pretending that these thoughts are well organized, so let's just get right into them.
1. Seasons don't die with wins.
Obviously preseason polls don't mean diddly squat. Nevertheless, Penn State opening the season ranked 10th indicated that many folks outside of the program expect continued success in 2018.
Many of the season's goals -- make the CFP, undefeated year, elite ranking in the final polls, etc. -- would've died with a home loss to Appalachian State. The conference goals would've remained, but so many goals would've been dashed that it would've been tough to have a successful year.
On the other hand, seasons simply don't die with wins. Even underwhelming home wins against Group of 5 teams. Even against programs that recently ascended to FBS. Wins are exponentially more palatable than losses, as they should be.
Everybody remembers Clemson's remarkable, truly last second win against Alabama to win the 2016 National Championship. Fewer folks recall that Clemson need 17 4th quarter points against Troy on their home opener to secure a six-point win. The Tigers slipped three spots in the polls after that game, just like Penn State just did, but the season turned out just fine.
I'm not saying that 2018 Penn State is 2016 Clemson. I'm simply hammering the idea that wins never kill seasons. Losses do.
2. I expected Appalachian State to be solid, but they were substantially more impressive than expected.
Everybody remembers the 2007 trip that the Mountaineers took to the Big House, shocking the then 5th-ranked Wolverines. Since that FCS Championship season, the Mountaineers enjoyed solid seasons but hardly impactful ones before making the FBS in the Sun Belt Conference in 2014. After their solid 7-5 (6-2) debut season, they ripped off a three-year stretch of 30-9 (21-3) from 2015-17. They're not just an also-ran program in the North Carolina mountains. They're a strong Group of 5 program.
Prior to the season, I picked a 31-20 Penn State victory, closer than my expected margins of victory over Kent State, @ Indiana, and @ Rutgers. After having made those picks, I discovered that S&P+ pegged the Mountaineers as the 59th best team in the country, immediately ahead of Power 5 trio Kansas State, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech. Had Penn State needed a thriller to get by Scott Frost's Cornhuskers or Bill Snyder's Wildcats, there would be far less consternation.
It's still possible that Appalachian State is mediocre and Penn State is wildly overrated. However, there's a similarly plausible storyline where Zac Thomas dropped dimes all over the field at Beaver Stadium because he's a pretty darn good quarterback, not because Penn State's defense stinks.
3. The 4th-quarter onside kick was easily the most embarrassing play for the Nittany Lions.
I said, audibly, to my television screen that the front line needed to be prepared for the possibility of an onside kick after App. State drew the score to 31-24 in the 4th. It was a classic underdog onside kick situation and Penn State presented a formation that made it far too compelling to attempt. The front line really blew it there, but it's tough not to put that on the coaching staff. Coaches have to have a feel for that type of game situation.
4. Trace McSorley, rather quietly, had yet another superstar performance.
McSorley's day was largely overshadowed by focus on new Nittany starters and the raucous App. State 4th quarter. That makes sense. However, McSorley oh so quietly threw for 229 yards and a game-tying touchdown in the final minute without a turnover, adding 53 yards on 12 carries with two additional scores. He has made the excellent routine. He also wasn't helped by an uncharacteristically underwhelming performance from Juwan Johnson.
Two plays stick out more than the rest. McSorley's game (season?) saving first down on 4th and 2 with just over a minute left was the result of calm, superb actions in the face of a crushing upset. He hit Brandon Polk on a hot route, beating Appalachian State's 8-man zone before it had a chance to shut down his throwing lanes. And then, three plays later, McSorley stared down a ferocious pass rush to stand in the pocket and deliver a game-tying score on a beautiful throw to KJ Hamler.
However, it's not just those plays that make McSorley special. It's also his ability to, with incredible consistency, properly read the opposing pass rush, either delivering a quick hit or slipping through a hole to turn many plays into run-pass options (RPOs).
Those play will carry the Nittany Lions far this fall. Having watched a number of games this weekend, I didn't see another quarterback show such tremendous grasp of the situation on nearly every down. That, more than anything else, is Penn State's primary advantage.
5. The concerns at linebacker only got worse in the opener.
My biggest concern: Jan Johnson would look like a walk-on athletically, regardless of his fifth-year senior status. That's precisely what happened as Johnson played 47 snaps, 10 fewer than Koa Farmer and 20 fewer than Cam Brown. Johnson doesn't look like he'll survive the year as the starter.
Two freshmen got decent run as Micah Parsons scored 21 snaps while redshirt freshman Ellis Brooks got 15. I didn't much notice Brooks -- which may be a good thing given how Johnson stood out for the wrong reasons -- but I sure did notice Parsons. The same issues that showed up on his high school tape reared their head. Parsons is an athletic freak. He does a great job using this athleticism to shed blocks. What he does not do, however, is use his athleticism to hit. Parsons routinely got in solid position to make a play but appeared to pull up, either because he was tired by the pace of the college game (unlikely given his snap count) or because of a predisposition to avoid laying out opposing players (very likely given the prevalence of this in his prep tape). It's easy enough for a collegiate strength and conditioning program to help a player add muscle and weight over a couple of years. I'm not sure if you can reorient a player's hard wiring to play more viciously, but Penn State will likely need to do so with Parsons in order to help him become the impact player that the defense so desperately needs.
6. P.J. Mustipher made the most of his 11 snaps.
A true freshman, Mustipher finds himself in the enviable spot of having a Big Ten-ready body in a position group with some snaps to distribute. He got only 11 on defense, but he made his presence known. He seems like the kind of player who will benefit most from the new redshirting rule: he could very well play 70+ snaps over four games while maintaining his redshirt season. The depth chart at defensive tackle doesn't appear particularly set, but Mustipher had four names ahead of him against Appalachian State in Robert Windsor (52 snaps), Ellison Jordan (31), Fred Hansard (27), and Antonio Shelton (24), and that's before returning starter redshirt junior Kevin Givens returns from his one-game suspension. Still, the lack of obvious plus starters and reserves gives Mustipher an opening to play his way into more important snaps.
7. Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan fans need to take some deep breaths.
The first two teams on this last failed to cover 20+ point spreads in majestic fashion, needing late touchdowns and stops to hold off Group of 5 foes at home. Nobody ever wants that.
Thankfully, I watched the vast majority of both games and after a few days of deep breathing myself, I'm reasonably confident that both State schools still have strong seasons ahead of them. The reasons that they were expected to be great this year -- important, veteran talent and coaching staffs with a penchant for winning -- remain. It's not exactly rare for teams to struggle in September and look completely different and substantially improved by November. I won't be surprised if that happens with either of the States.
Of course, there's the pesky matter of this week's games for both squads. Both teams travel to hostile environments, though the reasons for the hostility are monumentally different. Michigan State gets the brutal experience of playing in 100 degree desert heat against Arizona State in a game that will kick off at 10:45pm Eastern. Penn State travels a much shorter distance but they do so to play rival Pitt, also at night and on national television. If Pat Narduzzi wants to announce the arrival of his program, Saturday night will be his best opportunity.
Like most, I expect reasonably close games. Unlike most, I expect the Big Ten teams to emerge victorious for the simple reason that they are better than their opponents and the outside factors don't make up enough of the talent gap to fuel the upsets. We'll see if the fan bases and media overreacted to some Week 1 scares or if I underreacted to them.
There is one unfortunate hiccup in the "we'll be better later in the season" plan for Penn State: Ohio State had no such struggles in Week 1 against an admittedly poor Oregon State team. The Buckeyes visit Beaver Stadium in three weeks. Gulp.
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