I'm stoked. On Thursday, I'm taking my daughters (the big ones) to Penn State's opener in West Lafayette against Purdue. It's an exciting way to start the season. For the Nittany Lions team, it's also a brutally difficult way to start the season. Obviously Ohio State's tilt against Notre Dame represents the most challenging Week One opponent for a Big Ten team, but traveling to Purdue is undeniably then next toughest opponent for a team in the East.
Thankfully for Penn State, Purdue is an ideal matchup. More on that below.
Offense
The strength of Penn State's offense will be the passing attack led by sixth-year, 24-year-old QB Sean Clifford. When healthy, Clifford has been a plus quarterback. Unfortunately, the "when healthy" tag is hugely important with Clifford as injury sapped him of his effectiveness last year after a hot start came to a screeching halt with a back injury in Iowa City. Clifford's top reserves -- surprisingly, Drew Allar and Christian Veilleux -- should both be much more adept than Ta'Quan Roberson proved in 2021. But if they need to play, 2022 is probably a year full of growing pains.
Clifford gets to throw to a deep receiving corps led by NFL-bound Parker Washington who looks ready to ascend into the role left vacant by Jahan Dotson. Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley steps into a starting role after an explosive 2021 season that included absolutely roasting Michigan State's secondary. Third receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith grabbed the #1 jersey and looks overqualified as a third banana. Big Canadian Malick Meiga and Alabamian Harrison "Trey" Wallace should fill out the group with solid depth. If blue chipper Kaden Saunders can force his way onto the field, the group looks even better.
Just as important as the receivers, Penn State's tight end room features laughable depth with all three of Brenton Strange, Theo Johnson, and Tyler Warren deserving starter's reps thanks to their experience and pedigree. Hopefully offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich utilizes the tight ends even more in 2022.
Of course, all of the players above only get to produce if the offensive line gives Clifford time. The line has enjoyed tons of offseason helium in recent years before disappointing ever year. This year's line features three new starters in LT Olu Fashanu, LG Landon Tengall, and RG Saleem Wormley. Returning starters C Juice Scruggs and RT Caedan Wallace combined with key reserves OT Bryce Effner and G Hunter Nourzad provide just enough bodies to withstand an injury or two without collapsing. However, the starting unit needs to produce in order for the team to push for a return to double-digit wins in 2022.
They should get some help from a pair of explosive newcomers in the backfield. Gatorade National Player of the Year Nicholas Singleton brings burst to the backfield as does fellow true freshman Kaytron Allen. The youngsters were so impressive in camp that fourth-year RB Caziah Holmes transferred to Florida State last week. Hopefully Keyvone Lee is relegated to a change-of-pace role around the goalline with the freshmen carrying most of the load.
In the end, the quarterback room should produce and the other skill players give the quarterbacks a chance to be a plus offense. This only matters if the offensive line can push defensive lines around and keep Clifford upright. Will that happen? Cross your fingers.
Defense
The 2022 defense features the best secondary I've seen in my time as a Penn State fan, even with the loss of elite safety Jaquan Brisker. Ji'Ayir "Tig" Brown is ready to step into Brisker's role as the leader of the secondary, and Penn State has two high-ceiling options to replace the other safety spot in Zakee Wheatley and Jaylen Reed along with steady upperclassman Keaton Ellis providing depth. While Wheatley and Reed are inexperienced, both come with the athletic profile desired for premium starters. Wheatley began his career as a cornerback, but he transitioned to safety given the loaded group on the edge of the defense. Joey Porter Jr. is getting first-round buzz, returning starter Kalen King should improve in his second year, former South Carolina starter Johnny Dixon was apparently a star of fall camp, and Marquis Wilson is finally back using his elite athleticism at corner after splitting time on offense. Daequan Hardy owns the slot and has produced far more than expected already. There is star power and depth in the defensive backfield.
That is not the case at linebacker. Curtis Jacobs will be expected to carry a heavy load and, candidly, he is probably the player Penn State can least afford to lose to injury. There simply isn't another linebacker ready to play with his athletic ability. Jonathan Sutherland moved up from safety to the other starting outside linebacker spot in Manny Diaz's defense, but Sutherland doesn't figure to play a ton of snaps given the amount of time that Penn State spends in a 4-2-5 alignment. Reserves Charlie Katshir and Jamari Buddin aren't pushing for reps, so linebacker depth is lacking unless and until hulking freshman Abdul Carter is ready to get on the field; so it goes with all three of Brandon Smith, Ellis Brooks, and Jesse Luketa now in the NFL. The middle linebacker battle between Tyler Elsdon and Kobe King was won by Elsdon, but MLB will likely be the weakest spot in the defense.
Thankfully for the linebackers, the defensive line figures to make life easy on the linebackers behind them. Defensive tackle PJ Mustipher was voted second-team All Big Ten by the coaches in 2021 despite missing six games with a torn ACL, speaking to his primacy on the line. Thankfully, the rest of the tackle rotation got key experience in Mustipher's absence, so Coziah Izzard, D'Von Ellis, the returning Hakeem Beamon, and even Jordan van den Berg and emergent true freshman Zane Durant provide a solid rotation at DT. The defensive end position is finally back to being in great shape even with Zuriah Fisher's injury. Between Adisa Isaac, Nick Tarburton, Maryland transfer Chop Robinson, Smith Vilbert, and incoming five-star freshman Dani Dennis-Sutton, the Nittany ends should be able to continually pressure opposing quarterbacks.
Special Teams
Colgate transfer Barney Amor is a huge step down from Jordan Stout at punter; Stout was the first punter selected in the NFL draft whereas Amor has only played one season of college football. Hopefully 280-pound freshman Gabe Nwosu gets into a game or two! Unfortunately, freshman Alex Bacchetta is headed for a redshirt season, far from winning a job.
The placekicking job is concerning. Redshirt senior Jake Pinegar has never produced at a plus level and he even lost his job last year to Stout despite Stout's continued struggles on field goals and extra points. Redshirt freshman Sander Sahaydak couldn't beat out Pinegar; there's a lot of hope here but not a lot of confidence.
Coaching
James Franklin had a good offseason as he tends to do. Hopefully he doesn't commit costly blunders on Saturdays (or a Thursday) this year.
There will likely be some growing pains in the transition from Brent Pry (now the head coach at Virginia Tech) to Diaz as defensive coordinator. Again, hopefully those aren't too notable with a pair of road trips in September.
With Yurcich back helming the offense again, continuity on that side of the ball we be a welcome change after rolling through Joe Moorhead, Ricky Rahne, and Kirk Ciarocca before Yurcich arrived last year.
Predictions
@ Purdue - W 38-20
Vegas has the line close in this one (PSU -3), but I'm not sure why. Injuries may derail the Penn State season in 2022, but the team is healthy in Week One and heads to Purdue with a decided advantage everywhere. Penn State's passing offense should carve up Purdue's secondary which will feature two new starters from the Transfer Portal. Purdue's desire to pass with sixth-year QB Aidan O'Connell plays into the strength of the Penn State defense while Purdue's miserable rushing attack likely won't expose Nittany's weak linebacking corps -- wait until October for that. George Karlaftis isn't here to put pressure on Clifford and neither Rondale Moore nor David Bell is here to prop up the passing attack.
v. Ohio - W 48-10
Penn State should easily outclass Ohio.
@ Auburn - W 35-17
There is a lot of bad energy around the Auburn program these days; not so with Penn State. I think that the Nittany Lions roll here, too.
v. Central Michigan - W 52-10
Just like Ohio, this one shouldn't be close.
v. Northwestern - W 31-20
Northwestern looked awfully spunky against Nebraska, but Penn State's secondary should make the difference here.
@ Michigan - L 17-42
Looks like another disastrous trip to Ann Arbor. Michigan will run at will against the Penn State defense, and Michigan's defensive front will likely make the Penn State offense one dimensional. That's a recipe for failure.
v. Minnesota - L 24-28
Franklin has done a miserable job over the years rebounding from a loss. PJ Fleck's squad will be well-positioned to take advantage. This one will sting, especially as the first true Whiteout failure since 2015.
v. Ohio State - L 30-23
Franklin's teams always play Ohio State tought but almost always come up just short. 2022 looks like more of the same.
@ Indiana - W 24-10
An angry Penn State team gets back on track.
v. Maryland - W 30-20
An angry Penn State team stays on track.
@ Rutgers - W 40-7
Rutgers is very bad and I don't think Greg Schiano can compete.
v. Michigan State - L 24-21
The way of the world. Barf.
