Tuesday, June 28, 2022

B1G Football Scheduling Proposal

It's no secret that the Big Ten is considering blowing up its football divisions and thank goodness: the East's relative dominance over the West has rendered the divisional format uninteresting. With the possibility of divisions being obliterated, the B1G will need to retool its scheduling. There are really only a trio of key considerations for me:

  1. Protect key rivalries. Duh. This means UM-OSU, UM-MSU, NEB-IOW, MIN-WIS, etc. have to play every year.
  2. Ensure that teams play regularly. Every team should play every other team in the conference at least once every two years. This probably isn't a key issue for the B1G, but it sure is for me!
  3. Nine conference games annually. More conference games is better than fewer conference games.
This leaves me with a few options:
  1. Divisions. Divisions get a lot of hate and rightfully so: the East-West split has yielded a laughable imbalance of power. That said, divisions largely ensure that historical rivalries are protected and that teams play somewhat regularly. We could probably do worse.
  2. Pods. With 14 teams, we'd probably need three pods: one four-team pod and two five-team pods. Obviously mathematically pods work better with 16 teams. But I'll see if this works.
  3. Protected Rivalry(ies). Ensure that a couple of key games happen every year, then rotate.
  4. Free-for-all. Just go nuts.
Before embarking on this endeavor, I assigned my own highly subjective power rankings to each team in the conference and placed that in parentheses as a way of gauging how fair or unfair any proposal may be. Here goes.

I even had a laughable idea: what if we did divisions alphabetically?

Division A
Illinois (13)
Indiana (12)
Iowa (6)
Maryland (11)
Michigan (2)
Michigan State (5)
Minnesota (7)

Division Z
Nebraska (8)
Northwestern (9)
Ohio State (1)
Penn State (3)
Purdue (10)
Rutgers (14)
Wisconsin (4)

The total for Division A is 56 whereas Division Z is 49. Not bad! That is compared to the current East (57) versus West (48) alignment. Of course, the biggest problem with the current format is the fact that #s 1, 2, 3, and 5 are all in the East; this format provides more of a split even if Division Z appears a bit tougher and has the chance to get much tougher if Nebraska ever reemerges, though I've already given them some inflation here.

Still, we can do better.

Pods
This is the hot idea in college football, so how well does it apply to the B1G? I don't know. Here's my thought:

Geographical Pods
Pod A (West)
Nebraska (8)
Iowa (6)
Minnesota (7)
Wisconsin (4)
Illinois (13)

Pod B (East)
Ohio State (1)
Penn State (3)
Maryland (11)
Rutgers (14)

Pod C (Rest)
Michigan (2)
Michigan State (5)
Northwestern (9)
Purdue (10)
Indiana (12)

The balance here is pretty solid: the West and the Rest average team is 7.6th whereas the East average team is 7.25th. The biggest problems: the East is comically at the extremes and I split the Illinois teams.

This split is tremendous news for Michigan State, who loses an annual game with both OSU and PSU in favor of NU/Derp/IU. Even with Sparty's longstanding issues against Northwestern, that looks awfully tasty.

But this thing doesn't even get off the ground. In years where the Rest pod is playing itself and the West pod, Michigan and OSU don't play; that's a non-starter for the B1G. If I move another team to the East pod, I end up with the same problem, just from OSU's vantage point.

Let's try something else:

Power Ranking Pods
Pod A
Ohio State (1)
Rutgers (14)
Iowa (6)
Northwestern (9)
Nebraska (8)

Pod B
Michigan (2)
Illinois (13)
Michigan State (5)
Purdue (10)
Minnesota (7)

Pod C
Penn State (3)
Indiana (12)
Wisconsin (4)
Maryland (11)

I took the teams in the B1G and set this up like a March Madness tourney: best plays worst, next best plays next worst, and so on. I still have rivalry-related issues. I have Ohio State playing exclusively garbage. That's not fun.

Protected Rivalries
I started with a radical concept: what if we give each team three rivals instead of two? Call them "protected games" or "annual opponents" or whatever you want. That was fun but had holes, so I moved to four rivals in order to protect as many rivalry games as possible. Here goes:

Illinois: Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska, Ohio State
Indiana: Purdue, Michigan State, Rutgers, Maryland
Iowa: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota
Maryland: Rutgers, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan: Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern
Michigan State: Michigan, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue
Minnesota: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa
Nebraska: Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin
Northwestern: Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan
Ohio State: Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois
Penn State: Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers
Purdue: Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State
Rutgers: Maryland, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State
Wisconsin: Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska

We may be onto something here. The only "rivalry" game that isn't protected is the Governor's Victory Bell between Minny and Nittany and they play only every other year at this point anyway. Because I want to really run this to ground, let's look at each team individually:

Illinois: Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska, Ohio State
Incredibly, Illinois has three matchups to protect: the Illini have played all three of Northwestern (Land of Lincoln Trophy), Ohio State (Illibuck), and Purdue (Purdue Cannon) 95+ times. Their games are protected here with Nebraska a nice bonus.

Indiana: Purdue, Michigan State, Rutgers, Maryland
Indiana is easier with whom to deal: Purdue (Old Oaken Bucket) is the only game that really needs protecting, but it's nice to catch Sparty (Old Brass Spittoon) as well. Rutgers and Maryland are an homage to their days in the cellar of the B1G East.

Iowa: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota
Iowa was the secondary inspiration for the move from three to four protected games due to Nebraska (Heroes Trophy), Wisconsin (Heartland Trophy), and Minnesota (Floyd of Rosedale) all being meaningful rivalries, and Northwestern desperately needing a meaningful protected opponent. This list ends up pretty much like the B1G West has for years, but it helps that Iowa will still have to cycle through OSU/UM/MSU/PSU more regularly.

Maryland: Rutgers, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana
Maryland only needed Penn State. Rutgers makes sense somewhat for timing and geography. Purdue and Indiana are meh. Maryland really lacks meaningful rivals. That's true regardless of scheduling format.

Michigan: Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern
The first three rivalries are all big ones with Ohio State (The Game), Michigan State (Paul Bunyan), and Minnesota (the Little Brown Jug). I don't even know what the George Jewett Trophy is, but again, Northwestern needed a big rival.

Michigan State: Michigan, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue
Great, great list for Sparty. Paul Bunyan + Land Grant Trophy + Spittoon. Purdue also exists and geography plays well here.

Minnesota: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa
Minny really needed to protect Wisconsin (Paul Bunyan's Axe), Michigan (the Little Brown Jug), Nebraska ($5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy), and Iowa (Floyd of Rosedale). Minny was the primary spur for the move to four.

Nebraska: Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin
Gotta keep building these new western rivalries. Illinois might be weak here, but it helps the Illini to have Nebraska around.

Northwestern: Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan
A strong list for the Wildcats. Illinois was the only essential game to protect, but keeping Wisconsin makes geographic sense and they've had a number of quality games against Michigan in the last few decades.

Ohio State: Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois
Michigan and Penn State make tons of sense. As noted above, Illibuck is a pretty big matchup. Rutgers is here to (i) throw Rutgers a bone, and (ii) get Ohio State near NYC every other year.

Penn State: Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers
A real bummer not to have Michigan on this list, but these four are no-brainers to me. Ohio State and Michigan State have become rivals over PSU's decades in the B1G whereas Maryland and Rutgers are natural geographic and recruiting rivals. Plus, Maryland and Rutgers both needed big rivals and PSU qualifies.

Purdue: Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State
Indiana is the only essential game to protect. Illinois and Sparty both make some sense. Maryland helps Purdue get to four protected games.

Rutgers: Maryland, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State
Maryland, Ohio State, and Penn State all make sense for reasons stated above. Indiana gets them to four.

Wisconsin: Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska
Wisky's list is tremendous: Paul Bunyan's Axe, a solid matchup with Northwestern, Heartland Trophy, and Freedom Trophy.

really like this approach. It gets at the heart of what makes college football fun: rivalries, sometimes ridiculous ones. So how would this play out? Let's look at what a Nittany schedule might look like over a few years:

Year 1
@ Ohio State
vs. Michigan State
@ Maryland
vs. Rutgers
@ Illinois
vs. Indiana
@ Iowa
vs. Michigan
@ Minnesota

Year 2
vs. Ohio State
@ Michigan State
vs. Maryland
@ Rutgers
vs. Nebraska
@ Northwestern
vs. Purdue
@ Wisconsin
vs. Illinois

Year 3
@ Ohio State
vs. Michigan State
@ Maryland
vs. Rutgers
@ Indiana
vs. Iowa
@ Michigan
vs. Minnesota
@ Nebraska

Year 4
vs. Ohio State
@ Michigan State
vs. Maryland
@ Rutgers
vs. Northwestern
@ Purdue
vs. Wisconsin
@ Illinois
vs. Indiana

Man, I really like this idea. Teams never go more than three years without playing a home-and-home with every team in the conference and we protect all of the meaningful rivalries in the conference. Yes, we also protect games that we don't necessarily need to protect, but that doesn't seem like a real problem to me. Some fans may complain that protecting, say, Purdue-Maryland, is a bad thing for the conference. My counter? Both squads will still cycle through every other opponent in the conference every two years and, as a bonus. some new rivalries may develop.

Full disclosure: I didn't know how this would go before I started, but I love the way that this ended.

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