Could 2024 Finally Be the Year that Penn State Beats Ohio State Again?

Could this finally be the year? 2016 was amazing, but it was also a very long time ago. Coach James Franklin -- affectionately referred to in these parts as "JFF," a very well-earned moniker -- has struggled mightily to get over the hump and actually beat OSU since that magical year. But his teams continue to play OSU tough. In fact, here's a look at his performances against OSU over the years:

• 2014
• Spread: PSU +14
• Result: Loss 31-24 in 2OT
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 17-17 tie.
• 2015
• Spread: PSU +17 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 38-10
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. 21-10 OSU to start Q4.
• 2016
• Spread: PSU +20
• Result: WIN 24-21
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes.
• 2017
• Spread: PSU +7 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 39-38
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 35-20 with 12 minutes left. Win expectancy % peaked at 97.2%.
• 2018
• Spread: PSU +3.5
• Result: Loss 27-26
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 26-14 with 8 minutes left. WE% peaked at 96.1%.
• 2019
• Spread: PSU +19.5 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 28-17
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. 21-17 OSU to start Q4.
• 2020 (whatever that was)
• Spread: PSU +10.5
• Result: Loss 38-25
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. Closest point was 31-19 OSU early Q4.
• 2021
• Spread: PSU +17.5 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 33-24
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 27-24 OSU with 10 minutes left.
• 2022
• Spread: PSU +15.5
• Result: Loss 44-31
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 21-16 PSU with 10 minutes left.
• 2023
• Spread: PSU +4.5
• Result: Loss 20-12
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 13-6 OSU mid-4th.
• 2024
• Spread: PSU +3.5
• Result:
• 4th Quarter Lead?

Franklin's teams have been consistently competitive. Over 10 games -- and we're counting the COVID game here, though I'm not sure we should -- Penn State has one win, two other games with two-score fourth quarter leads, another game with a one-score fourth quarter lead, another game that went to double overtime, three other games where PSU was within one score in the final 10 minutes, and two others where PSU was within two scores in the fourth quarter. Given that decade of situations, Penn State's 1-9 record is remarkable, unfortunately for the wrong reasons.

I start with this history because, unfortunately, it matters. JFF carries this baggage with him into Saturday's game.

Turning to the rosters, I understand why Ohio State is favored. While Will Howard is a huge step down when compared to other recent OSU QBs, he's plenty competent, and he'll throw the ball around at Beaver Stadium to an outrageously talented group of WRs led by freshman savant Jeremiah Smith,  Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. Egbuka still projects as a first-round pick and is likely the third best player in that group. Absurd. Penn State's defensive backfield is strong and has played well this year, but AJ Harris has struggled a bit recently and the absence of KJ Winston is rearing its head. On the other side of the ball, OSU's defensive backfield, led by CB Denzel Burke, S Caleb Downs, S Sonny Styles, and S Lathan Ransom, figures to make life extremely difficult on Penn State's average group of receivers. While Trey Wallace and Liam Clifford have proved to be reasonably productive this year, it's hard to see them creating significant plays against this defense.

Taken together, Penn State's path to victory appears to be on the ground, on both sides of the ball. Penn State appeared to have a good chance for a productive day of running the football if the team was at full strength. Unfortunately, that isn't the case. RT Anthony Donkoh -- Penn State's best offensive lineman earlier this year -- is trying to play through shoulder and knee injuries, and it shows. While the rest of the PSU OL has performed well in its run blocking, the dropoff from a healthy Donkoh to either (i) a hobbled Donkoh, or (ii) Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci, is absolutely massive. Against some teams, Penn State can scheme around the shortcomings. Against DE JT Tuimoloau, DE Jack Sawyer, and DT Tyleik Williams, a trio of experienced defenders headed to the NFL this offseason via top-100 picks, Penn State needs to be in top form. Adding Beau Pribula as a running threat may help, but that comes with a rather obvious cost to Penn State's downfield passing attack. Still, it's plausible that Pribula's running ability is necessary to combat the incredible strength of the Ohio State defense at all levels.

Fortunately, we may encounter a very strange situation involving Ohio State's offensive line: it is horribly banged up and underperforming. G Donovan Jackson is playing OK. LT Josh Simmons was having a nice season and projects as a good pro...but he suffered a knee injury against Oregon and is out for the year. His backup, Zen Michalski, was carted off the field following a terrible showing against Nebraska. Either a hobbled Michalski or a third-string LT figures to take the field in State College. This offers an opportunity for Penn State. Ohio State has rushed the ball 30+ times in every game this year, so there may not be a tremendous number of true pass rush opportunities. However, if Penn State can require OSU to allocate two blockers to DE Abdul Carter on each pass rushing snap, opportunities should abound elsewhere on the line. DT Zane Durant figures to have the opportunity to blow up the game from the inside. If PSU can successfully limit the OSU rushing attack and pressure Howard on passing plays, the Nittany Lions will have a shot. If OSU's line holds up and gives Howard a chance to distribute the ball to his pass catchers, Franklin figures to drop to 1-10 against the Buckeyes.

Given the makeup of these rosters, I'd love to see Penn State negate Ohio State's defensive backs by pulling them off the field entirely. Play bully ball. Put three tight ends on the field with a couple of running backs and a running QB. This plan took a huge hit when TE2/3 Andrew Rappleyea suffered a season-ending knee injury; as good as Luke Reynolds has looked in the TE3 role, could he really handle 50 snaps against OSU? Yikes. Still, I'm expecting to see a tremendous amount of TE2 Khalil Dinkins on the field on Saturday, to say nothing of the barrage of touches that will surely be funneled toward national TE1 Tyler Warren.

I've made it this far without directly addressing the elephant in the room: Penn State's QB situation. Former 5* QB and Ohio native Drew Allar has looked dramatically better this year, raising the offense's ceiling from last season. Unfortunately, Allar suffered what appears to be a knee injury against Wisconsin. If he plays, he'll surely be limited in his mobility and likely be unable to escape the pocket when necessary. I'm deeply concerned that this iteration of the Penn State offensive line -- with Donkoh's injury -- won't have an advantage over Ohio State's front; thus, the legs of Beau Pribula could be necessary for Penn State's offense to function. I don't love the idea of Pribula making his first start against the Buckeyes, but given the circumstances, this is probably the best of two bad choices.

As we near the end, we get to special teams. Starting Penn State PR Kaden Saunders remains out with a foot injury and reserve Zion Tracy is yet to make a difference in the return game. P Riley Thompson has been solid, though not quite as solid as last year. Most notably, K Ryan Barker appears to have stabilized the placekicking game following his walkoff field goal against USC. Given the tight nature of so many PSU-OSU contests, the kicking game could loom large.

Finally, we loop back to the coaches. Ryan Day is developing a reputation as something of a James Franklin 2.0, a coach who dominates just about every opponent...except for the elite teams on the schedule, where he finds a way to lose. Day's team suffered a fatal brain fart in Eugene, but otherwise looks very strong. And for all of Day's struggles relative to OSU expectations, he has not struggled to beat Penn State.

So, again I ask: could this finally be the year? Sadly, I don't think so. Penn State has the talent to play with Ohio State and turn this game into a coin flip, but Ohio State's receiving talent will be impossible to stifle. There's a strange narrative emanating that Ohio State struggles to run the ball. Yes, they struggled to run the ball against Nebraska, but TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combined for 110 yards on 21 carries against Oregon, 139 yards on 24 carries against Iowa, and 123 yards on just 18 carries against Michigan State. While Penn State's run defense is arguably better than those squads, OSU should still be able to run with some success.

The Penn State defense has suffocated opposing offenses in the second half of games, particularly in the third quarter, but they have sluffed through many first halves. If Penn State holds Ohio State to 10 points or less in the second half, though could be enough to win...but it won't be enough to win if the defense surrenders three touchdowns in the first half. I think that happens on Saturday, complete with the added concern that a hobbled Allar or first-time starting Pribula seems primed for a turnover or two that gifts the Buckeyes offense with a short field. I do think that Penn State will move the ball against Ohio State significantly more than last year, regardless of who plays QB. But if Penn State reaches halftime down something like 21-10, the offense will be forced to press the OSU secondary...and that's a recipe for disappointment.

OSU 31

PSU 20