Chicago Bears 2025 Mock Offseason: Thanksgiving Week Edition

As the Bears prepare to head to Detroit so the Lions can cook them for Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday, it's time for another look at what this winter and spring could have in store for the Bears. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like the most recent one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut G Nate Davis (already gone!), TE Gerald Everett, and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. The GM -- whether Ryan Poles or his replacement -- will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same opportunities at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping he's better than the last four.

Free Agency

The Bears figure to have about $66.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will likely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for a couple of starters on the interior offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $88M deal with $65M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of need. This isn't complicated.
2. Sign DE Josh Sweat to a 2-year, $28M deal with $15M guaranteed. DeMarcus Walker has turned into a decent DE2 who offers nice value on his current deal, but he's nice the pass rusher that a guy like Sweat is. The defense needs an infusion up front. Actually, Walker is such decent value that...
3. Trade DE DeMarcus Walker to Miami for #98 overall. After signing Sweat, retaining Taylor (below), and moving into year two with Booker, converting Walker into draft capital makes a whole lot of sense.
4. Sign WR Diontae Johnson to a 2-year, $24M deal with $10M guaranteed. This probably still seems a bit heavy for Johnson given how disastrous his stay in Baltimore has been thus far, but it protects the Bears against a scenario where they don't find a good third option in the draft.
5. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $5M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he has changed the story at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag.
6. Sign DE Darrell Taylor to a 2-year, $8M deal with $4M guaranteed. Taylor has been a solid addition who isn't good enough to command even a low-level starting gig in free agency.
7. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every team. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.

The above spending utilizes about $55M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for LT Braxton Jones and CB Kyler Gordon.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. I only made one edit to PFF's draft tool and it's a big one: the draft order. While the Bears are currently slated to pick 12th based on the standings, they're headed for no better than 7-10 this year. The best 7-10 team picked at #11 in last year's draft, the 7-10 Bears picked 9th, and the best 6-11 team picked 7th. Given the prevalence of truly dreadful teams with records worse than Chicago's at the moment -- here's looking at you, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Browns, and Patriots -- but the lack of teams projected to be just a tick worse than the Bears, I'll split the difference and put the Bears at #8.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #8 to Los Angeles Chargers for #25, #57, #126, and a 2025 2nd round pick

The options here are tough. The top two DEs were on the board in Penn State's Abdul Carter and Texas A&M's Nic Scourton. The top five OTs were also there in LSU's Will Campbell, Texas's Kelvin Banks Jr., Ohio State's Josh Simmons, Minnesota's Aireontae Ersery (who devoured Carter yesterday), and West Virginia's Wyatt Milum. The trade-down options were enticing, but they all represented big drops. In the end, however, it came down to two options: Carter or the trade. As much as I love him, I have cold feet on Carter after watching him get swallowed up by both Ersery and Milum this year. So, the trade won the day.

#25: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery

I didn't want to take Ersery at #8, and I figured that meant saying goodbye to all five OTs...but that wasn't the case. At #25, this is an easy choice, even with other favorites on the board. Ersery probably doesn't start from the jump, but he offers a ceiling for this OL that is impossible to pass up. He also enables Kiran Amegadjie to kick to OG opposite Trey Smith, strengthening the interior.

Bears Trade #40 and #126 to Los Angeles Chargers for #33

I turned around and sent that 4th rounder back to the Chargers to move up to the top of the second round. With a chance to change the status quo at DT, I had to do it...

#33: Michigan DT Kenneth Grant

Grant is a unicorn: a 6'3", 340 lbs. NT who moves well enough to stay on the field in passing sets while forming the foundational anchor of a run defense. This is a no-brainer if he lasts this long. I hate trading up on principle, but sometimes it's the obvious choice.

#39: Georgia DE Mykel Williams

I was really hoping Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen would make it here -- he went at #36 -- but Williams is one heck of a consolation prize. Despite his twitched-up body and imposing frame at 6'5", 265 lbs., he hasn't been much of a pass rusher thus far. This is a bet on his athletic profile and age, as Williams was the #6 overall recruit in the class of 2022.

#57: Arizona OG Jonah Savaiinaea

The extra Chargers pick let me get my hands on one of my favorite players in this class. Savaiinaea will be announced as an OT, but given the makeup of this Bears roster at this point, he'll immediately kick inside and compete with Amegadjie to start. Savaiinaea is gigantic at 6'5", 336 lbs., and he spent half of his collegiate career at RG before kicking out to OT. I'm not sure if he helps the rushing attack, but I'm extremely confident that Savaiinaea helps keep the pocket clean against interior rushers for the rest of Caleb Williams' rookie deal.

#80: Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.

This is getting silly. With all due respect to Michigan TE Colston Loveland, Fannin is the only TE I've seen this year that made me wonder whether Tyler Warren was the best TE in the country. Fannin's frame is slight, especially for an NFL TE, but he absolutely embarrassed both Texas A&M and Penn State defenders (13 grabs for 281 yards and a pair of scores) in his premier opportunities. There will be a lot of discussion about what Fannin can't do as the draft approaches...but at #80 overall, focus instead on what he can do. Is this an overreaction to Gerald Everett? No. It might be a reaction to Everett, but Fannin is just that good.

Bears Trade #98, #182, and #187 to Arizona for #85

Again, my good luck continues, so I trade up twice for the first time in...maybe ever? It's an easy choice, because...

#85: South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori

Have you ever wondered what it would be like if former Notre Dame and current Ravens S Kyle Hamilton was somehow even faster...but also much worse at football coming out of college? Meet Nick Emmanwori! I don't think he'll make it out of the 2nd round and he could sneak into the 1st round, so nabbing him here is the easiest choice in the whole draft.

#153: Illinois WR Pat Bryant

Bryant is a really nice get here. He's been very productive, has good size, and brings enough athleticism to the table. 

To be perfectly honest, the draft went unreasonably well. Between the initial Chargers trade and getting Ersery-Grant-Williams in the same class, this is beyond a dream scenario. Here's the roster at the end:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Harold Fannin Jr.

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Scott, Pat Bryant, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Aireontae Ersery

OG (3): Trey Smith, Kiran Amegadjie, Jonah Savaiinaea

C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, Mykel Williams, Austin Booker, Darrell Taylor

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Kenneth Grant, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, FREE AGENT

ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Nick Emmanwori, Elijah Hicks, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

(PFF incorrectly lists the Bears as holding the Rams' 5th rounder -- I'm not sure why, so I always send it back to LA)

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR depth chart isn't terribly deep. The RB room is halfway empty! There is no succession plan at LB. The CB group lacks a compelling option if Tyrique Stevenson can't bounce back from his Hail Mary gaffe in Washington, something he is yet to do. And there's no viable reserve 3T at the moment unless something wild happens with Pickens.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and Caleb Williams gets a new explosive toy in Fannin.

This is my favorite mock offseason thus far by a mile.

The Nail Is In the Matt Eberflus Coffin, But Outside of the Eberflus Family, Who Cares?

As my brother and I sat in Soldier Field last Sunday with the Bears' season on life support, something amazing happened: facing a 3rd and 19, budding star rookie QB Caleb Williams ad-libbed a 16-yard dart to WR Rome Odunze to set up a very manageable 4th and 3, which Williams then converted with another gorgeous throw to Odunze. One easy out to Keenan Allen later and Williams had done the unthinkable: he led a comeback against the unsurmountable force that is the Green Bay Packers, formerly the club's biggest rival. I turned to my brother, wrapped my arm around him, and told him that there was a world where this is the beginning of a wild turn in the Matt Eberflus story. Alas, it was not to be...

...but not all is lost, Bears fans! In fact, the Bears are finally in an idyllic spot with their quarterback and, just as importantly, their failure of a head coach has finally failed enough that there's no plausible way to keep him. While it was fairly obvious to numerous Bears fans that Flus should've been fired last January, there's no longer a decision to be made this January: Flus will be gone, uncoupling Williams from his floundering coach. In fact, if the Bears were a more competent organization, Flus wouldn't make it home from Detroit on Thursday afternoon. But the Halas/McCaskey family has never fired a coach during a season; it's hard to have hope that they'll start now.

The reason for keeping Flus appears to be continuity, though I struggle to see the value in continuing to fail. The reasons to fire Flus are...well, they're too voluminous to list. A few that jump out:

1. Flus hired Shane Waldron as OC. I liked the Waldron hiring seeing what I could see from the outside, but his tenure was an unmitigated disaster that got him fired two weeks. Only two NFL OCs have been fired this year: Waldron and Luke Getsy, the other OC hired by Eberflus. Good grief. Through two weeks of OC Thomas Brown, the offense in general and Williams specifically look dramatically better.
2. Flus is wildly conservative despite routinely coaching as an underdog. This was clearest last week when Flus decided to sit on the ball with 30+ seconds remaining in order to try a 46-yard field goal...in Chicago...in November...with a kicker who always kicks low line drives. It was an unforgiveable error that speaks to Flus' illogical conservatism and general approach to make decisions governed by fear of what could go wrong instead of confidence about what could go right. Add it all up and he's 5-18 in one-score games. No other current NFL head coach is under .400, but Flus is coming in strong at .217.
3. The team quit after the Washington Hail Mary. The Arizona game that followed was embarrassing. More on that below.
4. The most damning issue, even worse than those listed above: the Matt Eberflus defense stinks. There are two key injuries with budding star (and personal favorite) S Jaquan Brisker and NT Andrew Billings both presumably out for the season, but the unit is still about as healthy as an NFL defense can be at midseason. This is Flus's third season at the helm with incredible resources poured into that side of the ball. The results?
1. After forcing a pair of punts from the Cardinals to start that game, the Bears allowed three touchdown drives in the last 16 minutes of the first half to let that game get out of hand.
2. Needing to right the ship the following week back at home against the woeful Patriots, the defense allowed five scoring drives -- admittedly only one that reached the endzone -- in a game where the offense no-showed. That marked just the second time in 33 games since Thanksgiving 2022 that the New England offense generated five scores.
3. On life support the following week against the dreaded Packers, Thomas Brown's offense enjoyed a successful day of ball control, and the Flus defense responded by shutting down Green Bay once...and allowing the Packers to reach at least the Chicago 5 on their five other possessions.
4. That brings us to today, where Minnesota doubled Green Bay's output with 12 possessions. Minnesota only reached the 5 or farther four times. That's huge improvement, right? Technically, sure, but that overlooks the following possessions:
1. A field goal drive that reached the 8.
2. A field goal drive that reached the 7.
3. A field goal drive that reached the 9.
4. Two other possessions that crossed midfield.

The pass rush is non-existent, yet Flus refuses to send numbers in key spots. The results are as expected.

It seems that the defensive shortcomings started to weigh on Williams, especially in dreadful showings against Arizona and New England. It's part of what makes his explosive outings against Green Bay and Minnesota since so much more impressive.

Also speaking to the incredible nature of Williams' explosion? The complete lack of a rushing attack to take some weight off of his shoulders.

I'm surrounded by Lions fans who get to enjoy the NFL's best offensive line with a pair of plus backs. They'd probably lose their lunch if their running backs turned in these four consecutive games as has been the case for D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson (keep in mind that this includes a 39-yard touchdown from Swift against Green Bay):

1. 19 carries for 64 yards @ Arizona
2. 17 carries for 55 yards v. New England
3. 24 carries for 104 yards v. Green Bay
4. 15 carries for 32 yards v. Minnesota

The total tally is alarming: 75 rushes for just 255 yards. That's 3.4 yards per carry. Yuck. Williams himself is masking the dereliction of duty from the rushing attack by contributing big rushing totals himself:

1. 4 carries for 5 yards @ Arizona
2. 2 carries for 15 yards v. New England
3. 9 carries for 70 yards v. Green Bay
4. 6 carries for 33 yards v. Minnesota

Williams has added 123 yards on 21 carries, nearly half as many yards as Swift+Johnson despite the backs having 3.5x attempts. Yuck yuck yuck.

Back before the season started, I worried most about the Bears improving just a little -- to something like 8-9 or even 9-8 -- without being good. It would ensure that the club stayed in the Flus-infused purgatory for at least another year, wasting another year on the Williams rookie contract. That ship has sailed. Flus is toast. Williams is now thriving without his albatross of a coach holding him down.

While I'd still love to see management put on their big-boy pants and jettison Flus before the season is over, I'm confident that Williams can survive six more games with his overmatched head coach. The continued failure of the head man should even give GM Ryan Poles -- or, possibly, his replacement -- yet another top-10 draft pick with which to add to the roster. While there are significant needs to address before the 2025 season begins, especially in the interior of the offensive line and along the defensive front, the Bears have sufficient assets to put toward the roster to make this an eminently enticing opportunity for the 2025 head coach.

That 2025 head coach will not be Matt Eberflus. And outside of the emergence of Caleb Williams as a budding star, that's the best thing that could come out of the 2024 season at this point. For a team that struggles to get wins on the field, Bears fans will have to settle for this "win" instead. For now, anyway.