As the Bears prepare to head to Detroit so the Lions can cook them for Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday, it's time for another look at what this winter and spring could have in store for the Bears. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like the most recent one here. The quick and dirty summary:
- The Bears will cut G Nate Davis (already gone!), TE Gerald Everett, and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
- The GM -- whether Ryan Poles or his replacement -- will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left.
- Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same opportunities at DT.
- The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping he's better than the last four.
Free Agency
The Bears figure to have about $66.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will likely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for a couple of starters on the interior offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.
- Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $88M deal with $65M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of need. This isn't complicated.
- Sign DE Josh Sweat to a 2-year, $28M deal with $15M guaranteed. DeMarcus Walker has turned into a decent DE2 who offers nice value on his current deal, but he's nice the pass rusher that a guy like Sweat is. The defense needs an infusion up front. Actually, Walker is such decent value that...
- Trade DE DeMarcus Walker to Miami for #98 overall. After signing Sweat, retaining Taylor (below), and moving into year two with Booker, converting Walker into draft capital makes a whole lot of sense.
- Sign WR Diontae Johnson to a 2-year, $24M deal with $10M guaranteed. This probably still seems a bit heavy for Johnson given how disastrous his stay in Baltimore has been thus far, but it protects the Bears against a scenario where they don't find a good third option in the draft.
- Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $5M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he has changed the story at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag.
- Sign DE Darrell Taylor to a 2-year, $8M deal with $4M guaranteed. Taylor has been a solid addition who isn't good enough to command even a low-level starting gig in free agency.
- Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every team. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
The above spending utilizes about $55M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for LT Braxton Jones and CB Kyler Gordon.
NFL Draft
As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. I only made one edit to PFF's draft tool and it's a big one: the draft order. While the Bears are currently slated to pick 12th based on the standings, they're headed for no better than 7-10 this year. The best 7-10 team picked at #11 in last year's draft, the 7-10 Bears picked 9th, and the best 6-11 team picked 7th. Given the prevalence of truly dreadful teams with records worse than Chicago's at the moment -- here's looking at you, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Browns, and Patriots -- but the lack of teams projected to be just a tick worse than the Bears, I'll split the difference and put the Bears at #8.
With that in mind, here we go!
Bears Trade #8 to Los Angeles Chargers for #25, #57, #126, and a 2025 2nd round pick
The options here are tough. The top two DEs were on the board in Penn State's Abdul Carter and Texas A&M's Nic Scourton. The top five OTs were also there in LSU's Will Campbell, Texas's Kelvin Banks Jr., Ohio State's Josh Simmons, Minnesota's Aireontae Ersery (who devoured Carter yesterday), and West Virginia's Wyatt Milum. The trade-down options were enticing, but they all represented big drops. In the end, however, it came down to two options: Carter or the trade. As much as I love him, I have cold feet on Carter after watching him get swallowed up by both Ersery and Milum this year. So, the trade won the day.
#25: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery
I didn't want to take Ersery at #8, and I figured that meant saying goodbye to all five OTs...but that wasn't the case. At #25, this is an easy choice, even with other favorites on the board. Ersery probably doesn't start from the jump, but he offers a ceiling for this OL that is impossible to pass up. He also enables Kiran Amegadjie to kick to OG opposite Trey Smith, strengthening the interior.
Bears Trade #40 and #126 to Los Angeles Chargers for #33
I turned around and sent that 4th rounder back to the Chargers to move up to the top of the second round. With a chance to change the status quo at DT, I had to do it...
#33: Michigan DT Kenneth Grant
Grant is a unicorn: a 6'3", 340 lbs. NT who moves well enough to stay on the field in passing sets while forming the foundational anchor of a run defense. This is a no-brainer if he lasts this long. I hate trading up on principle, but sometimes it's the obvious choice.
#39: Georgia DE Mykel Williams
I was really hoping Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen would make it here -- he went at #36 -- but Williams is one heck of a consolation prize. Despite his twitched-up body and imposing frame at 6'5", 265 lbs., he hasn't been much of a pass rusher thus far. This is a bet on his athletic profile and age, as Williams was the #6 overall recruit in the class of 2022.
#57: Arizona OG Jonah Savaiinaea
The extra Chargers pick let me get my hands on one of my favorite players in this class. Savaiinaea will be announced as an OT, but given the makeup of this Bears roster at this point, he'll immediately kick inside and compete with Amegadjie to start. Savaiinaea is gigantic at 6'5", 336 lbs., and he spent half of his collegiate career at RG before kicking out to OT. I'm not sure if he helps the rushing attack, but I'm extremely confident that Savaiinaea helps keep the pocket clean against interior rushers for the rest of Caleb Williams' rookie deal.
#80: Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.
This is getting silly. With all due respect to Michigan TE Colston Loveland, Fannin is the only TE I've seen this year that made me wonder whether Tyler Warren was the best TE in the country. Fannin's frame is slight, especially for an NFL TE, but he absolutely embarrassed both Texas A&M and Penn State defenders (13 grabs for 281 yards and a pair of scores) in his premier opportunities. There will be a lot of discussion about what Fannin can't do as the draft approaches...but at #80 overall, focus instead on what he can do. Is this an overreaction to Gerald Everett? No. It might be a reaction to Everett, but Fannin is just that good.
Bears Trade #98, #182, and #187 to Arizona for #85
Again, my good luck continues, so I trade up twice for the first time in...maybe ever? It's an easy choice, because...
#85: South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori
Have you ever wondered what it would be like if former Notre Dame and current Ravens S Kyle Hamilton was somehow even faster...but also much worse at football coming out of college? Meet Nick Emmanwori! I don't think he'll make it out of the 2nd round and he could sneak into the 1st round, so nabbing him here is the easiest choice in the whole draft.
#153: Illinois WR Pat Bryant
Bryant is a really nice get here. He's been very productive, has good size, and brings enough athleticism to the table.
To be perfectly honest, the draft went unreasonably well. Between the initial Chargers trade and getting Ersery-Grant-Williams in the same class, this is beyond a dream scenario. Here's the roster at the end:
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Harold Fannin Jr.
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Scott, Pat Bryant, FREE AGENT
OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Aireontae Ersery
OG (3): Trey Smith, Kiran Amegadjie, Jonah Savaiinaea
C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, Mykel Williams, Austin Booker, Darrell Taylor
DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Kenneth Grant, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT
S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Nick Emmanwori, Elijah Hicks, FREE AGENT
SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT
Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:
(PFF incorrectly lists the Bears as holding the Rams' 5th rounder -- I'm not sure why, so I always send it back to LA)
As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR depth chart isn't terribly deep. The RB room is halfway empty! There is no succession plan at LB. The CB group lacks a compelling option if Tyrique Stevenson can't bounce back from his Hail Mary gaffe in Washington, something he is yet to do. And there's no viable reserve 3T at the moment unless something wild happens with Pickens.
Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and Caleb Williams gets a new explosive toy in Fannin.
This is my favorite mock offseason thus far by a mile.
No comments:
Post a Comment