Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: Now That the Bears Have All of the Guards...

In my last mock offseason, I wondered what it would be like if the Bears opted to avoid investing big assets in the LG and RG spots. Ha! Ryan Poles took the opposite approach this week, opting to make a pair of massive investments in Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney. Before delving into a wildly revised mock offseason in light of these moves, I'll start by grading those moves.

Before I do, an essential disclaimer: there's no grade inflation here. So, a C is a perfectly average move, a B is really good, an A is elite, a D is subpar, and an F is failing.

Bears trade #198 to Los Angeles Rams for LG Jonah Jackson

There's no sugarcoating it: I hated this trade. I haven't watched most of Jackson's career, so I'm putting lots of stock in a few viewings of him at Ohio State, in Detroit, and his grades and reputation. Jackson was a relatively middling draft prospect coming out of OSU with a mediocre Combine performance that yielded a 6.43 RAS. None of this would matter if he was great in the NFL, but he's never been terribly impressive. He was a Pro Bowl alternate once in his first five seasons despite spending four of those on the elite OL in Detroit surrounding by stars like Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow, and Taylor Decker. So, we've got five years of slightly below-average production. Not great. He was even benched by the Rams upon returning from injury this year.

(If you think looking at the RAS of a 6th-year pro is ridiculous, that's fine. But here are the other OL Poles has acquired: Braxton Jones (8.44...but with 35.4" arms!), Doug Kramer (8.49), Ja'Tyre Carter (6.31), Darnell Wright (9.68), Ryan Bates (9.54), and Kiran Amegadjie (n/a). He has a type.)

But that's before we get to the two massive downsides: health and cost. Jackson missed four games in 2022, six more in 2023 with two different ailments that caused him to miss big chunks of time, and 13 more in 2024. Yikes! And then we see that Jackson is due $17.5M from the Bears in 2025. There's some confusion on this point, but his contract is rather simple: he's due a $9M base salary that guarantees next week and an $8.5M roster bonus next week. The Bears are paying him $17.5M this year. While this isn't a top-of-the-market price, it's near that level and the Bears paid to get this contract, shipping out a 6th. I'm baffled. If the Bears wanted to avoid paying free agent pricing, that's fine...but this is free agent pricing!

There were only three plausible positives to this deal. First, it shows a commitment to the offensive line. Unfortunately, this is undercut by the reality that Jackson is worse than Teven Jenkins, just as injured as Jenkins, more expensive than Jenkins, and older than Jenkins. Woof. Second, Jackson is a LG in a market flooded with RGs, and he also had 200 snaps at C and 800 snaps at RG at OSU. Getting a LG made sense...until they got another, better LG the next day! Third, the Ben Johnson connection. Nabbing Jackson shows a willingness to find players that have a connection to Johnson. Whatever. GM Ryan Poles is supposed to be the adult in the room and get the right type of players for his coach, not an oft-injured guy on an underwater deal.

Poles' legacy of pick-for-player trades feature a couple of losses involving the offensive line, namely the 2023 6th he shipped to Miami for Dan Feeney and the 2024 5th he sent to Buffalo for Ryan Bates, to say nothing of the Chase Claypool whopper and, to a much lesser degree, what looks like a decent overpay for Montez Sweat. This one looks like the worst by a massive margin.

Original Grade: F

Updated Grade after Thuney Trade: F-

Bears trade 2026 4th to Kansas City for LG Joe Thuney

This is a more expensive trade than the Jackson trade. But this one is awesome for one key reason: Joe Thuney rules.

Thuney has been a stud since he entered the league in 2016. He has won four Super Bowls and lost two more. He was second-team All-Pro in 2019 and 2022, which is great! And it's completely overshadowed by Thuney being first-team All-Pro in 2023 and 2024. He's a star. And he's on a below-market deal, owed just $16M for the 2025 season, though the Bears would be wise to extend him for a bit.

There are three drawbacks to this deal. First, a 2026 4th is a meaningful cost to pay for what is presumably a rental player, but I think it's plenty fair. Second, Thuney is old. He's 33. Here's hoping he ages like Ruben Brown and Jason Peters instead of falling off a cliff. If he does, this deal will look even better. Third, this deal doesn't exist in a vacuum; it's yet another pick-for-player trade by Poles, and the Bears' draft capital continues to wither away.

Two other thoughts. First, I've heard some baffling talk that it's stupid for the Bears to invest at LG when the Chiefs are willing to downgrade at that spot; this is asinine considering that the Chiefs are only moving on from Thuney because of his $27M cap number in Kansas City and the new $23M cap number for RG Trey Smith. Second, the only way to for the Bears to blow this trade is to kick Thuney out to LT; let him be a star at LG.

Grade: B (remember, that's pretty darn good!)

Now, onto the mock offseason. Note that I put this together before the announcements of deals with TE Durham Smythe, CB Josh Blackwell, and LB Amen Ogbengemiga.

Free Agency

In my last mock offseason, I had the Bears at $78.3M of net cap space. So, I'll assume that the Bears entered this week with about $58.3M to spend, keeping $20M of powder dry to sign their draft class, extend Kyler Gordon, and make in-season moves. With the additions of Jackson and Thuney, the net cap space has dropped considerably, down to about $26.5M.

1. Sign DE Josh Sweat to a 3-year, $54M with $32.5M guaranteed. This move requires a tiny bit a cap flexibility that I didn't otherwise plan on, but the Bears need a real splash addition to the defense. Sweat is an ideal complement to Sweat and allows Austin Booker to come along a bit more slowly. 
2. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $6M guaranteed. It would be great to make this Drew Dalman, but I'm not sure that Poles can allocate that much cap space to the interior OL. Dalman figures to garner about $14M per year and has his own injury concerns. Shelton is no star, but he's a solid citizen, offers some continuity, and played significantly better football after a brutal September.
3. Sign WR Brandin Cooks to a 1-year, $3M deal with $2M guaranteed. Cooks has been a consistent producer for a long time, but he's nearing the end...and that's fine! He's here as WR3 if the draft doesn't break right or, ideally, WR4 if it does.
4. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. TE3 ideally; TE2 if necessary.
5. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is old and hurt, but the Bears need some insurance here.
6. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping a productive RFA.

Even without accounting for lower year-one cap hits and assuming equal AAVs, this free agency period uses $27.7M of net cap space assuming Sweat's signing pushes Dominique Robinson off of the roster, pushing me a tick beyond the $26.5M estimate above but this remains plenty workable. Of the new Bears, only Sweat has meaningful cap ramifications in 2026.

NFL Draft

Entering the draft, the Bears can do basically whatever they want, though the goal remains the same: get Penn State DE Abdul Carter, Michigan DT Mason Graham, or trade down.

Bears trade #10 to Denver for #20, #52, #121, and a 2026 2nd

I made this exact same trade last time. In this draft, Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan dropped, which was hugely beneficial for me.

#20: Texas A&M Shemar Stewart

Stewart didn't do much at Texas A&M, but his Combine performance puts him firmly in the first round. He's the unicorn that every team always wants. With M. Sweat and J. Sweat ahead of him, the Bears can afford to develop him in a complementary role as a rookie, putting him in favorable situations.

Bears trade #39 to Seattle for #50, #82, and a 2026 4th

This was the trickiest spot in the entire draft: both North Dakota State G/C Grey Zabel and, stunningly, Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. were on the board. Banks had to be the pick, right? Wrong. I got greedy with a trade and crossed my fingers that at least one of Banks or Zabel would make it to #41. Gulp.

This trade recoups the 2026 4th sent to Kansas City for Thuney.

#41: Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr.

Zabel didn't make it, but incredibly, Banks did. He's the LT of the future. I'm not sure what he is in 2025, but perhaps he can work his way into the lineup at RG if Jackson kicks over to C. I don't love the tape on Banks and he has injury issues on his resume. But come on. This value is too good.

#50: Ohio State DT Tyleik Williams

The drawback of the trades? Everyone I liked got drafted between #43 and #49. Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery. Arkansas DE Landon Jackson. Notre Dame S Xavier Watts. North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton. Texas DT Alfred Collins. Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen. OUCH!

Williams is a perfectly solid consolation prize. He's beefy yet remarkably quick at his massive size. I'm not sure about his specific fit in the defense, but Andrew Billings made no sense schematically and made himself indispensable. This will work itself out.

#52: Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo

I hate this pick and I have no idea where Skattebo is going in the draft. I do know, however, that Ben Johnson will want to run the ball like crazy and Skattebo will be a tone setter.

#72: Miami TE Elijah Arroyo

This is a great spot with four players that I really like that fit the roster really well: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr., Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea, Utah State WR Jalen Royals, and West Virginia OL Wyatt Milum. But Arroyo is too enticing, despite his injury history. He can absolutely fly and take the lid off of a defense from the middle of the field.

#82: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

Ultimately, Winston's draft stock took a massive hit due to his partially torn ACL in early September. But an early September partial ACL tear means that Winston should be able to play a full rookie season, bringing his massive ceiling to the roster. He's the prudent choice here, especially because there are more WRs in the coming rounds that I like.

#121: Colorado State WR Tory Horton

Horton is long and fast. He's a great addition to this WR room.

#149: Cal CB Nohl Williams

Williams had a decent Combine, but his biggest draws remain his length and kick returning ability. He's a nice addition here with little pressure to contribute early.

#235: Miami WR Samuel Brown

Brown is a great athlete. He's not a good football player yet. We'll see where this goes.

#242: UCLA Kain Medrano

Medrano is a former WR who is wildly undersized -- he needs to put on 20 pounds. But he should have a chance to contribute on special teams given his speed and explosiveness while he adds weight.

Here's the assembled roster:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Cam Skattebo, Ian Wheeler

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Elijah Arroyo, Austin Hooper

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Brandin Cooks, Tory Horton, Tyler Scott, Samuel Brown

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kelvin Banks Jr.

OG (4): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie, Bill Murray

C (2):   Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, Shemart Stewart, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Tyleik Williams, Zacch Pickens, FREE AGENT

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, Kain Medrano

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Nohl Williams

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Kevin Winston Jr., Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's the PFF simulator screenshot:

This is probably my least favorite mock. But there's still a ton of depth additions here to a roster that desperately needs it. I get scared running mocks at this point without trades.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: What If Ben Johnson Follows the Detroit Blueprint Up Front?

It's surely a fools errand to read too much specifically what Detroit Lions GM Brad Holmes did as a predictor of what new Bears coach Ben Johnson will want to see in Chicago...right? I don't know. So, in an effort to consider an alternative path this offseason, here's a Bears' mock offseason incorporating the following core concepts from Detroit:

1. The offensive line is key. But, more specifically, the OTs and the C are key. The Gs? They're less important if LT-C-RT are strong.
1. The RG spot, specifically, was a revolving door in Detroit. From Evan Brown in 2022 to Graham Glasgow in 2023 to Kevin Zeitler in 2024, Detroit never invested heavily in that spot. And when Jonah Jackson hit free agency as the top LG? Detroit let him jump to LA.
2. Explosive offensive players rule the day and they need to exist at all three skill spots: WR, RB, and TE.
1. Johnson is saying the right things about D'Andre Swift right now, but it's hard to believe that Johnson wants Swift as RB1.
3. Rotations are essential at DT. But not at DE.
1. But maybe this only applies if you have a true DE1?
4. WR4 consistently gets good run.

Regarding point #1, I went in search of a big upgrade over Braxton Jones in free agency, but -- no disrespect to Ronnie Stanley or Alaric Jackson -- I don't see an obvious one. If Jones was healthy, could I see the Bears drafting his replacement in April, then trading Jones at the draft? Sure. But he's not, so it still seems most likely the the LG in 2025 is a draftee with a potential future at LT if Jones doesn't work out long term.

Free Agency

I'm relying on free agency decisions and cap projections from my last mock offseason here, except that dead money has increased to $5.4M in light of DeMarcus Walker's release and estimated cap space has increased to $78.3M for the same reason. So, I'll assume that the Bears enter free agency with about $58.3M to spend, keeping $20M of powder dry to sign their draft class, extend Kyler Gordon, and make in-season moves.

1. Sign DT Milton Williams to a 3-year, $63M deal with $40M guaranteed. The 3 technique spot was decent but not great last year. Gervon Dexter improved dramatically, but that improvement came after a truly dreadful rookie season. So, the Bears go to the top of the market for the best interior pass rusher available.
2. Sign DE Chase Young to a 2-year, $35M deal with $20M guaranteed. Yes, it's comical to reunite Sweat and Young. But even though it feels like Young has been around a for a long time, he'll be just 26 this year. He's a big upgrade over Walker.
3. Sign C Drew Dalman to a 4-year, $46M deal with $27.5M guaranteed. Dalman becomes priority #1 in this scenario. Take care of the C spot first.
4. Sign RG Brandon Scherff to a 1-year, $6M deal with $5M guaranteed. This looks a lot like Kevin Zeitler's deal in Detroit last year.
5. Sign WR Brandin Cooks to a 1-year, $3M deal with $2M guaranteed. Cooks has been a consistent producer for a long time, but he's nearing the end...and that's fine! He's here as WR3 if the draft doesn't break right or, ideally, WR4 if it does.
6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. TE3 ideally; TE2 if necessary.
7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is old and hurt, but the Bears need some insurance here.
8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping a productive RFA.

Even without accounting for lower year-one cap hits and assuming equal AAVs, this free agency period uses $58.3M of net cap space, making this my most aggressive free agency spend to date. Notably, however, only Williams and Dalman carry significant cap ramifications into 2026. There is a lot of patching here.

NFL Draft

Unfortunately, despite that free agency explosion, there are still some notable needs on this roster, namely:

• LG / possible future LT
• RB1/2
• TE2
• WR3
• DE3/4

There's a heavy defensive flavor at the top of free agency, so expect to see a heavy offensive flavor to the draft class.

Bears trade #10 to Denver for #20, #52, #121, and a 2026 2nd

Penn State DE Abdul Carter and Michigan DT Mason Graham were gone. So I traded down.

#20: Texas A&M Shemar Stewart

This is a great outcome. If Stewart tests well at the Combine, he won't make it here given his massive frame. If he combines that size with quickness, he's the unicorn that every team always wants. But he's here in this mock. Yippee!

Marshall's Mike Green is also intriguing, but the size difference -- Stewart is nearly 40 pounds heavier -- is too compelling to ignore.

#39: North Dakota State G Grey Zabel

Luck is so nice when it's in your favor! Zabel getting here opens up the draft board in a way that no other player can. He's a Day One starter on the interior. If he proves to have sufficient length to kick out to LT, great! If he doesn't? Who cares? He might be Dalman's successor at C instead. Zabel is a great fit here if he lasts this long.

#41: Michigan TE Colston Loveland

Speaking of great fits...Loveland is the dream here. This is a class with three idyllic TEs: Penn State's Tyler Warren and Loveland as traditional, big-bodied TEs and Bowling Green's Harold Fannin Jr. as an H-back Swiss Army Knife. But Warren and Loveland are the preferred targets.

Bears trade #52 and #198 to Atlanta for #46

There's a very specific target here and a group of teams with big needs at this spot. Given this trade price, this is a good deal.

#46: Texas DT Alfred Collins

Collins is decidedly not a need here, but he is definitely one of my favorite players in this entire class. He reminds me a lot of DeForest Buckner. Admittedly, he has a ways to go to get there. But the ceiling is massive.

#72: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

This is a brutal spot with three players that I really like that fit the roster really well: Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea, Utah State WR Jalen Royals, and Winston. Ultimately, Winston's draft stock took a massive hit due to his partially torn ACL in early September. But an early September partial ACL tear means that Winston should be able to play a full rookie season, bringing his massive ceiling to the roster. He's the prudent choice here, especially because there are more WRs in the coming rounds that I like.

#121: UCF RB RJ Harvey

Harvey's flaws are voluminous. He's undersized at 5'8". His blocking is bad. He's not ever going to be a power back. I'm not even sure that he's an NFL RB right now.

So why the heck is he the pick here? Speed. Speed speed speed. Harvey is extremely fast and, thus, he's explosive at his best. The Bears need explosive talents on offense. Let's do it.

Bears trade RB D'Andre Swift to Los Angeles Chargers for #123

I'm guessing that Swift's trade value ranges from about pick #100 to pick #150. So, here we are in the middle. Trading Swift leaves $2.7M of dead cap money but frees up $6.7M more.

#123: UCONN OT Chase Lundt

Lundt isn't my kind of prospect. But there's so much that is seriously interesting here. He moves really well at 6'8". That alone piques my interest. I could see a future where he gets snaps as the 6th OL with regularity. I have no idea where his career goes. But I'm intrigued.

#149: Illinois WR Pat Bryant

I really wanted Colorado State WR Tory Horton to get here, but he surprisingly went at #147 to a Carolina team that had just drafted Jalen Royals earlier. Huh. No matter. Pat Bryant made it here and I like me some Pat Bryant.

#235: UNLV WR Ricky White

White is slight of frame, but comes with good speed and special teams expectations. That's a fine choice here.

#242: Jacksonville State G Clay Webb

Webb is a redshirt player who needs to add at least 15 pounds to have a chance to play in the NFL.

Here's the assembled roster:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Roschon Johnson, RJ Harvey, Ian Wheeler, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland, Austin Hooper

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Brandin Cooks, Pat Bryant, Tyler Scott, Ricky White

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Chase Lundt

OG (4): Brandon Scherff, Grey Zabel, Kiran Amegadjie, Clay Webb

C (2): Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Chase Young, Shemar Stewart, Austin Booker, Dominique Robinson

DT (5): Milton Williams, Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Alfred Collins, Zacch Pickens

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Kevin Winston Jr., Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's the PFF simulator screenshot:

Does this roster look better than my other recent mocks? I don't know. But it could be more in the vein of what Johnson wants, except at RB, where I really left this roster thin. Once the Bears decide to trade Swift, I'd expect another free agent RB to join the fold.

Nevertheless, I love the top five draftees here. They'd all be expected to play big roles in 2025 and come with exceptional ceilings. It would be fun watching these guys develop.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: OL Spending Spree Edition

No need for a lengthy introduction here. We're well into the offseason at this point. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like this one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut TE Gerald Everett and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. GM Ryan Poles will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left, but a year removed from paying a 5th rounder for him, the guess here is that Poles keeps Bates, possibly requesting that he take a modest pay cut that can be recouped by being active on gamedays.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same depth of options at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping that Ben Johnson is better than the last four!

Free Agency

OK, there actually is one big change here that is undeniably negative for the Bears: the NFL salary cap increased a good bit more than expected. The Bears previously enjoyed top-five cap space as a significant marginal advantage over the rest of the league, but with the new cap projection, the Bears figure to lose some of their ability to win free agency battles now that so many other teams picked up about $5M of space.

Estimating the base cap at $279M and factoring in the Bears' $5.1M of rollover cap from 2024, the Bears start with a cap number of $284.1M. Their top-51 contracts following the releases of Everett and Owens total $207M with $3.8M of dead cap bringing the total hit to $210.8M. That leaves $73.3M. Keeping $20M dry for the draft class, practice squad, and in-season moves is plenty conservative, so let's say they enter free agency with $53.3M of net cap space available for spending.

Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

Now that PFF has published contract projections, I'll utilize those below. The big change for this mock: ESPN has named the Bears as the top fit for both Kansas City G Trey Smith and Atlanta C Drew Dalman. Could the Bears really go to the top of the market at two interior OL spots? Let's see what the offseason looks like if they do.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $82M deal with $50M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of desperate need. This isn't complicated. Park Smith next to RT Darnell Wright and secure the right side as QB Caleb Williams develops. (I've long had Smith pegged at 4/$88M with $65M guaranteed. I think PFF is light.) It's worth noting that Smith has production and pedigree to fuel his free agency, but collegiate blood clots could scare some teams away just like they did during the Draft.
2. Sign C Drew Dalman to a 4-year, $46M deal with $27.5M guaranteed. This doesn't require the same level of bank breaking given Dalman's injury history.
3. Sign DT Levi Onwuzurike to a 2-year, $16.5M deal with $10M guaranteed. I have routinely mocked Philadelphia DT Milton Williams in this spot and PFF projects Williams for $21M on his next deal...per year! That'll be far too rich for Poles, so instead let's have Coach Johnson lure Onwuzurike to Chicago to join the rotation and add some pop. Onwuzurike is consistently productive, but he's got strikingly little game experience after sitting out his RS JR season at Washington during the pandemic and playing just 560 snaps in his first three NFL seasons combined. He's 27 and his 697 snaps in 2024 were really impressive, so perhaps his market ends up higher than this.
4. Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal. Barnett isn't a difference maker, but he's a solid citizen along a defensive line in need of some.
5. Sign OT Jedrick Wills to a 1-year, $3M deal. A reunion with Kevin Zeitler would've made sense were it not for Smith. Unfortunately, almost all of the top free agent interior offensive linemen play RG, so we're going to take an unconventional approach and following the Mekhi Becton plan, signing Wills to try him at LG. If he flops, so be it.
6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is coming off of a Lisfranc injury and he's 32, but he should be ready for 2025. He's a nice insurance policy for Brisker.
8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping an RFA.

The above spending utilizes about $47.8M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard, and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.

The Bears do have the tasty 39th pick from Carolina as the final piece from the Bryce Young trade, but this year's 4th rounder belongs to Buffalo thanks to the Austin Booker trade last year. With only four picks that can be reasonably counted on to produce 2025 starters, this is a tall task.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #10 and #241 to Cincinnati for #17, #49, and #81

My rule at #10 remains the same as last month: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham inexplicably slips to #10, make the pick and jump for joy. Otherwise, target a trade down. This is appropriate value as the additional 2nd and 3rd offer great value in spots where I really like this class.

#17: LSU OT Will Campbell

Huh. I did not see this coming. Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. was also available and I figured he stood a good chance to be the pick here. But someone always falls and, in this draft, it was Campbell. Perhaps teams didn't want to pick him higher than this if he's solidly a G on their board? Who cares! He's the perfect starter at LG who can project as a LT in year two and beyond.

#39: Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen

I'm very high on Umanmielen. He made a good choice to come back to school. He'd be a great fit on this roster.

#41: Texas DT Alfred Collins

This will feel too early for Collins for some folks. For me, it's not. He is a potential star with a unique physique that plays an essential spot. Obviously I would've preferred getting him later, but I couldn't risk him coming off the board between here and #49.

#49: Notre Dame S Xavier Watts

Had Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery made it here, he would've been the pick. But he didn't, so plug-and-play S Watts it is. He's a tremendous consolation prize for a safety room that has both Brisker and Byard in their walk years.

#72: West Virginia OT Wyatt Milum

I still think Milum is going to go in the 1st round by late April. Milum is so darn good and he's ready to be a plus player right away. There's talk of him kicking inside to G. Obviously he's only the pick if the Bears are confident that at least one of Campbell or Milum can play LT by 2026. Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea also warrants considerable consideration here.

For a team that has been so light on OL talent for so long, just get Milum in the building and figure it out later.

#81: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

The options were voluminous: Savaiinaea, South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori, Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr., and Kentucky DT Deone Walker are all very attractive options. But, ultimately, Winston is too good to pass up here. Winston had a 1st-round grade before a partial ACL tear ended his season in early September. The Bears can afford to bring him along slowly, if necessary, but he should be at full speed in camp.

Bears Trade S Kevin Byard to Las Vegas for #106

I don't know if this is fair value for Byard, but it seems a little rich to me. But, with Watts and Winston joining Brisker and with Diggs in house as a security blanket, Byard turns back into draft capital while also taking most of his cap hit to Vegas, leaving just $1.5M of dead cap behind and generating $7M of cap space.

#106: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

Nice! Walker would've been good at #81. At #106, this is tremendous. He's absolutely massive and is an ideal 1-tech if he continues to develop. In this DT room, he gets time to grow.

#148: Illinois WR Pat Bryant

Bryant doesn't have star potential, but he does bring solid citizen vibes. The Bears could use that in the WR room that desperately lacks depth behind Moore and Odunze.

#196: Texas Tech TE Jalin Conyers

Conyers is a great athlete in a somewhat undersized frame. He brings positional versatility playing in the backfield and on the edge, something that is ideal for a player in this spot on this roster.

#234: LSU WR Kyren Lacy

Important caveat: PFF is much lower on Lacy than most other services. It's fair to wonder why. Don't focus too much on Lacy specifically. Instead, think "possible WR/RB/TE contributor" in this spot.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Jalin Conyers

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Pat Bryant, Tyler Scott, Kyren Lacy, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Wyatt Milum

OG (4): Trey Smith, Will Campbell, Jedrick Wills, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2): Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Prince Umanmielen, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Derek Barnett

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Levi Onwuzurike, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, Deone Walker

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Xavier Watts, Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR room is in deep trouble with an injury to Moore or Odunze. The TE room needs Kmet to stay healthy and productive. The RB room is hilariously thin.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I say that every time, but this is the truest example. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features five defensive players among the top seven picks.

This is definitely my new favorite mock; that would've been true even swapping out Campbell for Banks. I nailed my goals on both lines in this mock. That's a recipe for success.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: End of January 2025 Edition

The last time I ran a mock offseason, the Bears hadn't won since mid-October. They eventually did win again, but not until the calendar flipped to 2025. Yikes. Thankfully, there's only one football game left in the 2024 season before all 32 teams turn their focus to the offseason. We don't need to wait.

I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like this one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut TE Gerald Everett and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. GM Ryan Poles will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left, but a year removed from paying a 5th rounder for him, the guess here is that Poles keeps Bates.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same depth of options at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping that Ben Johnson is better than the last four!

Free Agency

The Bears figure to have about $66.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

Now that PFF has published contract projections, I'll utilize those below.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $82M deal with $50M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of desperate need. This isn't complicated. Park Smith next to RT Darnell Wright and secure the right side as QB Caleb Williams develops. (I've long had Smith pegged at 4/$88M with $65M guaranteed. I think PFF is light.)
2. Sign DT Levi Onwuzurike to a 2-year, $16.5M deal with $10M guaranteed. I have routinely mocked Philadelphia DT Milton Williams in this spot and PFF projects Williams for $21M on his next deal...per year! That'll be far too rich for Poles, so instead let's have Coach Johnson lure Onwuzurike to Chicago to join the rotation and add some pop.
3. Sign OG James Daniels to a 1-year, $5.5M deal with $3M guaranteed. A reunion with Kevin Zeitler would've made sense were it not for Smith. Unfortunately, almost all of the top free agent interior offensive linemen play RG, so the Bears bring Daniels back after a few years in Pittsburgh. Daniels admittedly played RG for the Steelers, but he began his career at LG and C in Chicago, performing well. He's still just 27, so this is a nice flyer as he returns from an Achilles injury and allows players to develop behind him without being forced into action.
4. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $6M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he improved significantly at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag, especially given the hefty payday likely coming Dalman's way.
5. Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal. Barnett isn't a difference maker, but he's a solid citizen along a defensive line in need of some.
6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is coming off of a Lisfranc injury and he's 32, but he should be ready for 2025. He's a nice insurance policy for Brisker.
8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping an RFA.

The above spending utilizes about $50.5M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard, and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.

The Bears do have the tasty 39th pick from Carolina as the final piece from the Bryce Young trade, but this year's 4th rounder belongs to Buffalo thanks to the Austin Booker trade last year. With only four picks that can be reasonably counted on to produce 2025 starters, this is a tall task.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #10 and a 2026 5th to Seattle for #18, #50, and a 2026 2nd

My rule at #10 remains the same as last month: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham inexplicably slips to #10, make the pick and jump for joy. Otherwise, target a trade down. This is appropriate value as the additional 2nds are quite attractive.

#18: Georgia DE Mykel Williams

Williams is a perfect addition to this roster. A 4-3 DE that fits the roster well and offers top-flight projection.

#39: South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders

I really like Sanders. He's got a tremendous first step and a class 3-technique body.

#41: East Carolina CB Shavon Revel

I really hated how the board broke in this draft. There was a huge early run on OL, leaving none of my favorite targets in the 1st or 2nd rounds. So, Revel it is!

Bears Trade CB Tyrique Stevenson to Pittsburgh for #85

Stevenson is Dan Quinn in Atlanta after 28-3. It's not going to work for him in Chicago. So, especially with Revel on board, Stevenson ships out.

Bears Trade #50 to Pittsburgh for #53 and #121

It's a small drop and my targets should be there still. That said, I was hoping that Penn State S Kevin Winston would be one of my options; he didn't make it.

#53: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery

Ersery is slipping some in PFF's eyes. I don't care. I love him as a prospect, enough to take Ersery over a bevy of other prospects I like even more like Iowa S Sebastian Castro, Texas DT Alfred Collins, and especially Notre Dame S Xavier Watts.

Oh well: the Bears need a big-time developmental OL option.

#72: Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins

Georgia LB Jalon Walker was still on the board; if that was remotely possible, he'd be the pick here.

Instead, though, it's Higgins. A young replacement for Keenan Allen with whom Williams can develop rapport over the coming years.

#85: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson

I'm not hunting for a back in this draft, but I can't pass up Henderson at this point given the quality players added before him. Had either of the two players drafted ahead of him made it here -- South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori and Georgia OG Tate Ratledge -- they would've been the pick instead.

#121: Oregon TE Terrance Ferguson

This is an easy choice in this spot. Ferguson can play a meaningful role right away, and Hooper isn't a long-term fit for the squad, so it's essential to find a plausible TE2 in this draft at this point. Ferguson and Ole Miss TE Caden Prieskorn would both work.

#148: Iowa OG Connor Colby

Colby can reach and run, but he's undersized. So, give him a year to put on another 10 pounds and see if he can bulk up to hold up enough in pass protection. He adds another body with Daniels and Amegadjie to raise the floor in the interior.

#197: Tennessee WR Dont'e Thornton

A key recruiting loss for Penn State a few years ago, Thornton has a great frame and little chance to stick as a long-term NFL option. But there's a good starter kit here.

#235: Kansas CB Cobee Bryant

Bryant is ludicrously light in the 170s, but it's worth a shot here to see if he can bulk up enough to stay on the field.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Terrance Ferguson

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Jayden Higgins, Tyler Scott, Dont'e Thornton, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Aireontae Ersery

OG (4): Trey Smith, James Daniels, Kiran Amegadjie, Connor Colby

C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Mykel Williams, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Derek Barnett

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Levi Onwuzurike, T.J. Sanders, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Shavon Revel, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Cobee Bryant

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Jaylon Jones, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR room is in deep trouble with an injury to Moore or Odunze. The OL is riddled with injury histories. There are a lot of players who need to develop.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features three straight defensive players to start before throwing the QB a bone (he got some help via free agency, too).

This is not my favorite mock. I nailed my goals on the defensive line, but I'm bummed to have missed on the 1st round OTs. But Ersery really takes the edge off.

Previewing Penn State and Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

JFF's tenure sure has been a whirlwind. In the sanctions years of 2014 and 2015, Nittany was spunky but crappy, yielding a pair of 7-6 seasons led by future NFL Draft mega-bust Christian Hackenberg. 2016 got off to a brutal start with a close loss at Pitt and a 39-point loss at the Big House. Then they won nine straight, including a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten championship. Two losses in 2017 by a combined four points en route to an 11-2 season capped by a New Year's Six win. Two tight losses in 2019 en route to another 11-2 season capped by a NY6 win. 2020 was...whatever. 2021 was brutal disappointment after brutal disappointment: losses by 3 (Iowa), 2 (Illinois in 9OT), 9 (@ OSU), 4 (Michigan), and 3 (@ MSU) before a bowl season full of opt-outs.

2016-19 featured a bevy of big upset wins, but also a few losses as solid favorites; here's looking at you, Sparty.

2022-24 has been the opposite. Nittany is 34-1 as a favorite, with the lone loss coming in last year's Peach Bowl with a shell roster full of opt-outs. Conversely, they're 0-6 as underdogs.

That 0-6 record is bad news for me, given that Notre Dame is a 1.5-point favorite. But it's good news for TV viewers: only 2022 Michigan was a blowout (24-point loss) whereas the other five games were tight. A 13-point loss v. OSU where Nittany led with 10 minutes left, an 8-point loss @ OSU, a 9-point loss v. Michigan (the infamous 32 straight runs game), a 7-point loss v. OSU, and an 8-point loss v. Oregon.

It got me thinking: how did Nittany do against the spread in these matchups? Well...

• 2022 @ Michigan: Spread: +7. Result: 17-41. Result v. spread: -17
• 2022 v. OSU: Spread: +15.5. Result: 31-44. Result v. spread: +2
• 2023 @ OSU: Spread: +4.5. Result: 12-20. Result v. spread: -3.5
• 2023 v. Michigan: Spread +5.5. Result: 15-24. Result v. spread: -3.5
• 2024 v. OSU: Spread: +3. Result: 13-20. Result v. spread: -4
• 2024 v. Oregon: Spread: +3. Result: 37-45. Result v. spread: -5

Not great, Bob! They failed to cover in five of the six games despite only getting blown out in one of those six losses.

Speaking of not getting blown out...

Franklin got absolutely walloped by the first four top-10 ranked opponents he faced at PSU, losing to 2014 MSU, 2015 OSU, 2015 MSU, and 2016 Michigan by a combined 176-46. Non-competitive. Since then, Nittany has faced 19 top-10 opponents. Nittany is just 5-14 straight up with 40% of those wins coming in the last two weeks...but they're 11-8 against the spread. And, among those 8 non-covers, they were within 5 points of the spread six times. The only two times they failed to cover by more than 5 were a pair of shellackings at the Big House in 2018 and 2022.

The Orange Bowl is not the Big House and Notre Dame is not Michigan. Add it all up and the odds are pretty darn clear: Nittany should lose a close game by between 2 and 8 points.

Prepare for heartbreak, Nittany Nation!

But wait a minute. Is it possible that Drew Allar and the Penn State offense can flip the script, propelling Penn State to victory? Sure! It's possible. And there's two players that I see as most likely to fuel the win if it happens, the guys that everyone is talking about:

Khalil Dinkins and Luke Reynolds.

Huh? It's really quite simple. Penn State lives in 12 personnel with either Dinkins or Reynolds joining Tyler Warren on the field, and even leans into 13 personnel with regularity, featuring all three on the field at the same time. If this sounds like what Michigan, Iowa, and Illinois have tried to do to Penn State over recent years, that's because this is precisely the type of gameplan that Penn State has been on the receiving end of recently.

So, lean into it. Penn State's WRs stand basically no chance of getting open against Notre Dame's secondary, and even when Drew Allar throws them dimes on 50/50 balls, they catch almost none of them. So take them out of the gameplan. Run an offense that features Trey Wallace out wide with one of Omari Evans/Julian Fleming/Liam Clifford rotating on the other side to keep the defense honest. That frees up a TE to block a S or even a CB. This is surely Penn State's best path to victory. Notre Dame is an independent team that is really an ACC team -- their scheduled featured 5 ACC teams, 2 Big Ten teams, 2 MAC teams, 2 service academies, and 1 SEC team -- and their Big Ten opponents (Purdue and USC) don't play "Big Ten" football. Notre Dame hasn't had to face a team that lives in 12 personnel until facing Georgia with their backup QB. Notre Dame's win last week was arguably the most impressive win that any team has had in the CFP this season, Penn State should absolutely make them do it again. If Penn State avoids handing ND touchdowns via turnover and special teams, this game can turn into a rock fight. Penn State's offensive line and rushing attack give them the best chance to win a rock fight.

I'm going to stick with my original prediction from earlier this week and say that Penn State suffers an excruciating loss with a weird score: 17-15 Irish.

But, if I had a little more courage, I'd pick Allar to heavily feature Dinkins and Reynolds in a surprisingly aggressive passing day that effectively ignores the WR room. Come on, Nittany. We Are!