The NFL scheduling formula didn't do the Bears any favors. How bad is it? Here are the road games that the Bears will enjoy in 2025, coming off of a last-place finish in 2024:
- @ Detroit (yikes!)
- @ Las Vegas (1,500-mile flight against what should be a much more competent team)
- @ Washington (yikes!)
- @ Baltimore (YIKES!)
- @ Cincinnati (tough)
- @ Minnesota (yikes!)
- @ Philadelphia (YIKES!)
- @ Green Bay (YIKES!)
- @ San Francisco (who knows?)
The Bears will struggle to win any of those games. It's basically impossible to envision these Bears having a chance against Detroit, Washington, Baltimore, Minnesota, Philadelphia, or Green Bay, so their peak is probably 2-7 in road games. That means they need to go 7-1 or better at home to have a chance at a winning season.
This wasn't going to be the easiest game on the home slate, but it was probably the fourth or fifth easiest game on the schedule as a whole. The Bears win expectancy peaked at 94.2% late in the third quarter. And they needed a late score to trim a multi-score deficit down to a one-score hole.
Ugh.
To have a realistic chance at playing meaningful football in January, the Bears probably have to start 4-2 or 5-1. That was a tall task before this disaster; now it's practically impossible.
As I attempt to process this, I'm struck by the following downsides:
- Pre-Snap Penalties and Sloppiness. This wasn't some minor issue. The Bears had four false starts in the first half alone. On an early run to the left side, multiple teammates were explaining the play to Colston Loveland at the snap, who ran a pass route on a running play where his man made a TFL. The Bears burned two first half timeouts to avoid delay of game penalties. So sloppy.
- Jonah Jackson was Dreadful. Jackson reminded me of Lucas Patrick, looking overmatched on every snap. I understood that with Patrick given his relative size limitations. With Jackson, it appears that he is bad. It seemed that the vast majority of the pressure in Caleb Williams' face came in the A gap between new center Drew Dalman, who looked alright, and Jackson, who looked terrible.
- GM Ryan Poles Pretended that Cairo Santos Has an NFL Leg; Ben Johnson Pretended, too. I don't get it. I just don't get it. Santos is accurate on short and medium kicks, which is great. But Santos doesn't have an NFL leg. You can't just pretend that he does. The missed 50-yard field goal wasn't a surprise to anyone that has watched Santos. But Johnson deciding to have Santos kick the final kickoff deep was the nail in the coffin. Santos cannot kick the ball through the endzone. Pretending that he could cost the Bears the two-minute warning and 40 precious seconds. I don't blame Santos; he has the leg that he has. But I do blame Poles for keeping an inadequate leg and Johnson for coaching like he has a kicker that he simply doesn't have. Johnson said "the intent was for the ball to go out of the endzone." That's pretending.
- Fake Aggressiveness. This was my least favorite part of the Matt Nagy experience. "Be You." Spare me. Nagy was aggressive...except when he was extremely cautious. Similarly, Johnson elected to go for it on 4th and 3 at the MIN 24; the play was there but Williams missed an open D.J. Moore. Bummer. But later, at the end of the first half, the Bears were facing 1st and 10 at the MIN 32 with 1:55 left...and Johnson ran the ball twice, bleeding clock before a third and long instead of pushing to reach the endzone. Kevin O'Connell took a timeout, J.J. McCarthy completed one pass, and the Bears and Vikings merely traded 3s to end the half.
- Brutal Zebras. Just brutal. A phantom holding call on Darnell Wright turned a red zone drive into Santos' missed 50-yard field goal, flipping the game. Dayo Odeyingbo was called for roughing the passer for hitting McCarthy in the head...when he didn't hit McCarthy in the head. Odeyingbo also got called for illegal use of hands to the face of Vikings RT Brian O'Neill...when he didn't put his hands on O'Neill's face. Tyrique Stevenson got called for pass interference...because Jalen Nailor fell down. Stevenson certainly could've been called for illegal contact for early grabbing, but that wasn't the call and the call was bad.
- Terrible Running Game. D'Andre Swift had some nice carries. I liked what he brought, on the whole. Kyle Monongai made a nice catch. But the running lanes for Jordan Mason never materialized for Swift. When the offensive line doesn't create space, the running game will stink. Football is simple that way. Williams ended the game as the team's leading rusher.
- Inexplicable GM Extensions. I don't blame Ryan Poles for taking an extension from the McCaskey family. I do blame the McCaskey family for giving Poles a multi-year extension when his teams have always stunk. This is just like the Cubs extending GM Jed Hoyer with a losing record and no playoff appearances.
- Missing Draft Picks. 5th rounder CB Zah Frazier has something going on off the field, so he wasn't expected to contribute in this game. 2nd rounder Ozzy Trapilo plays OT, and while its eyebrow-raising that undrafted 2024 rookie Theo Benedet was the 6th OL, Trapilo can be forgiven. 2nd rounder WR Luther Burden got one touch on offense on a blown-up screen pass. 1st rounder TE Colston Loveland had two touches on checkdowns. 2nd rounder DT Shemar Turner was inactive. This team doesn't have so many studs that these players shouldn't be pushing for roles.
It wasn't all bad. There were a few bright spots that I'll be clinging to as the Bears prepare to get walloped in Detroit on a short week.
- The Returners. Devin Duvernay brought some juice, though fair catching the final punt was inexplicable. Burden's return at the end of the first half showed off his athleticism.
- Caleb Williams Making Plays with his Feet. Surely Ben Johnson wants Williams to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball. Unfortunately, he couldn't with the way the OL played tonight. So, kudos to Williams for extending plays to make things happen for a team in desperate need of help.
- The OTs. RT Wright and LT Braxton Jones held up very well against a pair to top DEs. Nice!
- The Non-Jonah Jackson Interior Offensive Line. Every time I watched Joe Thuney, he was mesmerizing. He was helping out, moving quickly, and I never once saw him get beat. Drew Dalman's snaps were clean and the only times I saw him get beat were when he was helping out Jackson, save for one missed stunt in the second quarter.
- Dayo Odeyingbo and Gervon Dexter. Odeyingbo was a menace, making a few highlight plays against the run and a couple of nice pass rushes. Dexter put some pressure on the Minnesota iOL, though never fully collapsed it.
- Safeties. Kevin Byard had a solid game. Jaquan Brisker was a force and it appeared that McCarthy wanted nothing to do with Brisker. And Jonathan Owens made a stellar play to shut down a Minnesota two-point conversion attempt.
- Nahshon Wright. Wright had a few plays where it appeared that he didn't know what he was doing. That's bad. He got beat by Justin Jefferson a few times. That's understandable. But Wright undercut a terrible throw from McCarthy for a 74-yard pick-six, making the single best play of the night for the Bears. That's worth calling out.
- Jaquan Brisker. He appeared to get through the game healthy and is awesome when he's on the field.
- Remembering 2024. In last year's opener, the Bears played terribly for the first three quarters against Tennessee, then rallied for a stirring comeback en route to a 4-2 start...followed immediately by a 10-game losing streak. Football seasons are long. Devastating losses only count as one loss. Blowout losses only count as one loss. There are lots of games left.
The Bears have a seven-game stretch from late-October through early-December that consists of the following:
- @ Baltimore
- @ Cincinnati
- v. New York Giants
- @ Minnesota
- v. Pittsburgh
- @ Philadelphia
- @ Green Bay
It's brutal. The schedule is unforgiving which requires capitalizing on opportunities now. The Bears whiffed by playing sloppy football and blowing a game in which they had a 94.2% win expectancy with 16 minutes to go so badly that they needed a late score to avoid a multi-score home loss.
Or, put much more simply:
Meet the new Bears: same as the old Bears, until proven otherwise.
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