Chicago Cubs Top 30 Prospects (and a bit more)

In the aftermath of last June's draft, I took a look at the Cubs system with an eye toward competing in 2015. As the Cubs continued (and continue) to convert current Major League talent into future Major League talent, the system continued (and continues) to evolve. While I've come to appreciate that competing in 2015 is less likely than I had previously believed thanks to a better understanding of the spending restrictions from the Tribune sale (as detailed by Bleacher Nation's Brett Taylor) and striking out on Anibal Sanchez and Masahiro Tanaka in back-to-back offseasons, the non-MLB levels of the system are still exciting and merit a major examination.

With that out of the way, it's time for a late April look at the Chicago Cubs top prospects six weeks before the draft. I realize that it is a bit bizarre to post rankings a few weeks into the season, but for those of us who can't afford to spend a few weeks in Arizona or make weekly trips to Des Moines, Knoxville, or even Daytona, a couple of MiLB.tv viewings to confirm or challenge previous findings is invaluable. None of my grades have changed in the past few weeks, but some of the analysis has. Some of it will look silly (thinking Javy Baez will still be a star despite a frigid start for the I-Cubs) while some of it will look prescient (placing Blackburn and Tseng as our top two pitching prospects). Such is the nature of a snapshot in time, whether it occurs in February, April, June, or October.

As was the case last summer, my sources for this writing include a number of written scouting reports, internet videos of gameplay, countless hours spent with MiLB.tv, and firsthand viewing of a number of the prospects at minor league games and/or spring training. I will use the 20-80 scouting scale for tools, roughly defined as:

20-25: Very poor
30-35: Well below average
40-45: Below average
50: Average
55: Solid-average
60-65: Plus or above average
70-75: Plus-plus or well above average
80: Outstanding or elite

While most people use power, hit, arm, fielding, and run, I like the idea of throwing in a sixth category: discipline. As we have seen with Starlin Castro, a fantastic hit tool can actually be a player's downfall if it gets in the way of developing a mature approach at the plate. Furthermore, I will include grades for durability (health) and risk on the same scale with 20 representing an absolute wild card and 80 representing a sure thing. Pitchers also get an all-important grade for stamina. Player names include links to video.

UPDATE: I embarrassingly skipped Dan Vogelbach when transferring my list from spreadsheets to written form. This list has been updated to restore Dan to his rightful home at #21. Sorry Dan!

1. SS Javier Baez
Date of Birth: 12/1/92 (Age 21)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 9th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 76 Games @ Daytona (A+), 54 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 577 PA, .282/.341/.578, 6.9% BB%, 25.5% K%, 37 HR, 4 3B, 34 2B, 20 SB
Tools: 60 Hit, 75 Power, 50 Discipline, 55 Glove, 60 Arm, 50 Run, 75 Durability, 45 Risk
Offensive Profile:  Baez still has massive power and it seems like just about every pitch could leave the yard if he takes the prefect swing. His pre-pitch activity has gotten significantly quieter as he has climbed the organizational ladder; it is no longer noteworthy. His plate approach flashes plus and horrific from plate appearance to plate appearance. Still, the bat is enormous and will force Anthony Rizzo from the #3 spot if Baez's head doesn't get in the way. He hits for good average and great power to all fields.
Defensive Profile: The arm will play anywhere on the diamond, and although it is not the best in the system, I'd believe Baez as an average defender at SS, 3B, LF, RF, or even 2B. He is plenty athletic to handle any of those spots and the team's other prospects likely determine where exactly Baez finds a home. He certainly has the chops to play on the left side of the infield.
Red Flags: Seeing Baez in person is a different kind of experience. He plays the game with a level of energy and excitement in a way that I've never seen, whether in front of 400 folks on a muggy night in Daytona or 14,000+ on a Sunday afternoon at Cubs Park against Yordano Ventura. Unfortunately, his energy and excitement can lead to wild throws or flailing swings at bouncing breaking pitches. A more patient Baez is a superstar Baez. His violence at the plate may lead to some back/oblique problems as well, but he has avoided them so far.
Path to the Majors: Here's what I said last summer: "With Baez's bat, the path is wide open. He would be best served by completing a full season at Daytona followed by another full season at Tennessee. However, he could push that timeline a bit with better control of his actions. By 2015, Baez could enter spring training with a full-time job in Chicago on the line. I'm not a fan of his early July promotion to Tennessee, but it will present a great challenge to his strike zone judgment." Well, he obliterated the Southern League and quickly continued on to Iowa. He should get a few hundred PAs in Chicago and have a job on the line next spring.
Overall Projection: Baez could easily be among the best bats in the game by 2017. The power is prodigious, the hit is plus, the discipline is inconsistent, the defense should be good, and the competitive fire will keep him hungry. I have him pegged for .285/.350/.550 lines with 35 homers and 15 steals as he reaches his peak. That's MVP caliber stuff. The strikeout rate will need to drop and his overall discipline will need to improve for him to get there; 147 strikeouts in 130 minor league games is concerning, but not as much so as his age, skills, and overall production are encouraging.
Overall Grade; Role: 70; #3 or #4-hitting Regular SS, 3B, 2B, or RF

2. 3B/COF Kris Bryant
Date of Birth: 1/4/92 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'5", 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 2nd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 2 Games @ Arizona (Rk), 18 Games @ Boise (A-), 16 Games @ Daytona (A+): 146 PAs, .336/.390/.688, 7.5% BB%, 24.0% K%, 9 HR, 2 3B, 14 2B, 1 SB
Tools: 55 Hit, 70 Power, 70 Discipline, 50 Glove, 65 Arm, 40 Run, 70 Durability, 60 Risk
Offensive Profile:  Whereas Baez looks to attack pitches, Bryant looks to calmly escort them 450 feet to their destination. He has easy power and it will be the driving force of his game. The above statistical line does not include his .364/.457/.727 run in the Arizona Fall League, nor does it include his strong showing the Florida State League playoffs. Bryant looks sufficiently fluid at the plate to hit for some average, but the power is the calling card and that's just fine because he has tons of it to pair with a discerning eye. He's going to strike out a lot, especially as he faces bigger velocity. But he's going to hit for enough average, draw tons of walks, and park plenty of balls in the stands.
Defensive Profile: I have been more impressed with Bryant's arm that with Baez's. Bryant throws lasers across the diamond, but with some much infield talent and so little in the outfield, I think he'll find himself parked in an outfield corner soon where his arm will play well. He is likely better suited for LF where his limited speed will be less of a problem. Nonetheless, he could be an average defender with time.
Red Flags: It's all about the strikeouts with Bryant. If he starts carrying a 30% K%, it's going to be hard to have an impact future. Even at 25%, he could be a star. Outside of the strikeouts, it's only the standard stuff about avoiding freak injuries and staying in good shape.
Path to the Majors: I detailed Bryant's path in an earlier post, finding that it wouldn't be unheard of for him to reach the Majors by this June. It's clear that the current front office will not be adopting that approach, likely postponing Bryant's promotion long enough to ensure that the club controls him through 2021 meaning late April 2015 is the earliest expected arrival date.
Overall Projection: Bryant can mash and just about every good team has a few guys who can mash. I think we're looking at a middle of the order bopper who can easily justify keeping Baez and Rizzo out of the #3 spot in the lineup if his discipline translates into plenty of walks. I see .275/.370/.525 lines with 35 homers and 5 steals from a corner outfielder at maturity.
Overall Grade; Role: 65; #4 or #5-hitting Regular LF or RF

3. CF Albert Almora
Date of Birth: 4/16/94 (Age 20)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 6th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 61 Games @ Kane County (A): 272 PAs, .329/.376/.466, 6.3% BB%, 11.0% K%, 3 HR, 4 3B, 17 2B, 4 SB
Tools: 70 Hit, 50 Power, 50 Discipline, 55 Glove, 55 Arm, 55 Run, 55 Durability, 80 Risk
Offensive Profile: It was important for me to see Almora in person. While I expected to see him to hack at every borderline offering at the plate, he showed must better balance and discipline than I expected. The kid can hit. When he got a hittable pitch, he squared it up nicely and made hard contact. He's never going to be a powerful force in a lineup, but he should hit for enough average to justify batting 2nd or 6th for a contender. Although he lost some important development time last year, he was strong at Kane County and just as good in the autumn, enjoying a strong .307/.342/.480 run in the Arizona Fall League over 79 PAs.
Defensive Profile: I still don't see why Almora has such a tremendous defensive reputation in scouting circles. I've seen a few plays where he appeared to make a great read on the ball, but he must overcome middling speed and only a decent arm if he seeks to be an impact player with the glove. I think he's likely to be more of a league-average defender.
Red Flags: Almora's strong discipline at the dish confused me because the statistics continue to suggest that he needs to draw more walks. It's a relatively petty concern, as his discipline suggests that he'll walk plenty. No truly alarming issues here, although he has been hurt a few times already and needs to stay on the field.
Path to the Majors: The Cubs' current center fielders are Ryan Sweeney and Justin Ruggiano with Emilio Bonifacio getting some PAs as well. The path is open with only the likes of Matt Szczur in front of him in the minors. Almora needs most of 2014 at Daytona, though a strong showing could get him to Tennessee for the stretch run. His cup of coffee could come in late 2015, but I won't be surprised if he's not playing for a full-time gig until mid-2016.
Overall Projection: Almora can really hit a baseball and he should hit for average all the way. Some guys - like Mike Olt - need massive raw power to hit for power due to a lack of contact, but Almora will hit for decent power by virtue of gobs of hard, line drive contact. I had only previously possessed faint praise for Almora, feeling frustrated by his low ceiling despite his high floor. There's more ceiling than I thought as I can see .300/.360/.465 lines with 20 homers and 15 steals. That's a very good player.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #1, #2, and #6-hitting Regular CF

4. 2B Arismendy Alcantara
Date of Birth: 10/29/91 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 5'10", 170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2008 (bonus unknown)
2013 Stats: 133 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 571 PAs, .271/.352/.451, 10.9% BB%, 21.9% K%, 15 HR, 4 3B, 36 2B, 31 SB
Tools: 50 Hit, 55 Power, 65 Discipline, 50 Glove, 45 Arm, 65 Run, 50 Durability, 55 Risk
Offensive Profile: Alcantara has a marvelous approach at the plate that allows him to overcome his physical limitations. The diminutive switch-hitter is much better as a lefty, using the entire field and doing so with good pop. I have been far less impressed by his swing from the right side of the plate. Nonetheless, he has the speed, power, and discipline to be a complete offensive player, if only an average one at that. He still has a tremendous amount of noise in his pre-pitch setup, something that may cause timing problems at the highest level.
Defensive Profile: I haven't seen much from Alcantara's arm, but he has plenty to play 2B competently while bringing above-average range and a deft touch. He's no Darwin Barney with the leather (who is?), but he's got more than enough to make it work.
Red Flags: Alcantara's gradually climbing strikeout rate could torpedo the entire package. He draws tons of walks, hits for good power, and generally makes hard contact. However, his strikeout rate rose nearly 5% from 2012 to 2013 and it is on the rise again this year. If he strikes out too much to get on base, the power and speed won't have a chance to save him.
Path to the Majors: Despite the current presence of Bonfiacio, Barney, and even Luis Valbuena as viable 2B options for the big club, Alcantara isn't truly blocked. If he performs at Iowa, he will have the opportunity to win a job next spring and should get a taste this September. He has been strictly a one-level-per-year player, so a full year at Iowa will be just fine.
Overall Projection: Alcantara looks frighteningly similar to Brett Jackson a few years ago as a complete player with no elite skills but plenty of average-or-better ones. Fortunately, Alcantara's strikeout rates have been lower all the way up the ladder, so he stands a better chance of reaching his ceiling of .270/.375/.345 lines with 15 homers and 25 steals. Even if he ends up in a platoon, at least he fills the long side.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #2 or #6-hitting Regular 2B

5. SP Paul Blackburn
Date of Birth: 12/4/93 (Age 20)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 56th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 13 Games/12 Starts @ Boise (A-): 46.0 IP, 41 H, 29 BB (5.67 BB/9), 38 SO (7.43 SO/9), 3 HR, 26 R, 3.33 ERA, 1.51 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Blackburn works 90-94 with strong two-plane movement. As he has matured physically, he maintains his fastball velocity much better.
Breaking Ball: 55. Blackburn works with a classic 12-6 curveball at 78-81.
Changeup: 60. Although the velocity is unknown, his changeup has nice sinking action and presumably resembles his fastball well based on some ugly swings.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 70 Durability, 75 Stamina, 50 Risk
Pitching Profile: Blackburn has the classic power starter's build, having added over 50 lbs. since draft day 2012. His fastball is his money pitch and as he continues to refine its command, it should generate lots of groundball contact. He will likely never be a big strikeout pitcher, but he has the look of a 200+ inning horse.
Red Flags: Blackburn is young and the walks have been a problem thus far. The sample size is small and his profile suggests strong command in the future.
Path to the Majors: The challenge of full season ball is a big step in 2014. Should Blackburn survive Kane County well, he could find himself competing for a rotation spot as early as 2017.
Overall Projection: Blackburn has all of the pitches to make it work; he just needs to throw a few thousand more. I'll be interested to see if the Cubs seek to add a slider or cutter to the mix as his curveball projects as the weakest offering and a cutter could be a devastating complement to his hard biting fastball. Even without the cutter, he should have three better-than-average offerings with a workhorse build and clean mechanics. That's a very valuable asset.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #3 Starter

6. SP Jen-Ho Tseng
Date of Birth: 10/3/94 (Age 19)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($1.625M signing bonus)
2013 Stats: Did Not Play
Fastball: 60. Tseng also works 90-94 with good tailing action on his fastball. It's possible that he could add even more life to the pitch as he matures.
Breaking Ball: 60. Tseng's 11-5 curveball works 74-77 and he has shown surprising command of the pitch at his young age.
Changeup: 60. His changeup has straight vertical drop at 81-83.
Additional Pitches: Tseng supposedly works in a slider, but I cannot find the pitch anywhere.
Physical and Other Tools: 65 Command, 60 Durability, 65 Stamina, 45 Risk
Pitching Profile: Tseng's physique is even more encouraging than Blackburn's. As with most Pacific Rim hurlers, Tseng employs a delay in his windup before exploding to the plate. His motion is fluid and repeatable, suggesting that he should be healthy enough to log the innings necessary to nudge his pitches up one level further.
Red Flags: Tseng is very young. While participating in full season ball at 19 is encouraging, it also suggests that he is quite far from Chicago.
Path to the Majors: The challenge of full season ball is an enormous step in 2014. Should Tseng survive Kane County at all, he could find himself screaming up prospect rankings and competing with Blackburn for a rotation spot as early as 2017.
Overall Projection: Tseng also has a developed arsenal in need of further refinement, yet he offers projection on top of some present polish. He could turn into something special. Even if he doesn't, he should be able to eat plenty of innings in an above-average fashion.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #2/3 Starter

7. SP Pierce Johnson
Date of Birth: 5/10/91 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 43rd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 13 Games/13 Starts @ Kane County (A), 10 Games/8 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 118.1 IP, 109 H, 43 BB (3.27 BB/9), 124 SO (9.43 SO/9), 5 HR, 41 R, 2.74 ERA, 1.01 GO/AO
Fastball: 55. Johnson works 90-93 with excellent tail and dive on the pitch. His fastball command is good, though it could use improvement.
Breaking Ball: 70. In my eyes, Johnson's two-plane curveball or even slurve that he throws anywhere in the 77-82 range is the best breaking ball in the system. He commands it exceptionally well, throwing the power breaker to both lefties and righties and to both sides of the plate.
Changeup: 40. Unfortunately, the changeup is almost as bad as the curveball is good. The pitch features only some straight vertical drop at 81-84, but he showed very little feel for the offering when I saw him with no command whatsoever.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 50 Durability, 45 Stamina, 60 Risk
Pitching Profile: Johnson is a bit light for my taste and his frame doesn't look like it can handle much weight. Still, his fastball and curveball give him two MLB-ready pitches that would enable him to handle a job adequately right now. The changeup just isn't where it needs to be at this point.
Red Flags: Health. Johnson dealt with forearm problems in college that led to a sizeable drop on draft day and he is still at extended spring training nursing a hamstring issue. Obviously the lack of a usable third pitch is an enormous red flag for a starting pitching prospect.
Path to the Majors: Johnson overwhelmed hitters in the Florida State League last summer, so he should be off to Tennessee when he fixes his hamstring. Upon arrival in Knoxville, he'll need to show that the changeup can be a regular part of his repertoire. He could make some starts in 2015.
Overall Projection: Johnson's fastball-breaking ball combination is as good as anyone in the organization outside of Arodys Vizcaino, yet his changeup threatens a move to the bullpen and the attendant reduction in innings. I've seen enough from Johnson to believe that he gets the changeup up to a 45 or 50 level, enabling him to stick in a rotation as a guy who never really goes more than six innings in a start while regularly working five. His pitches make me think of Jason Hammel and he could have a similar career with more command yet less stamina.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #3/4 Starter

8. RP C.J. Edwards
Date of Birth: 9/3/91 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 155 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 1,464th overall by Texas Rangers in 2011; Traded with 3B Mike Olt, RP Justin Grimm, and PTBNL (RP Neil Ramirez) to Chicago Cubs for SP Matt Garza
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Hickory (A), 6 Games/6 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 116.1 IP, 76 H, 41 BB (3.17 BB/9), 155 SO (11.99 SO/9), 1 HR, 33 R, 1.86 ERA, 1.41 GO/AO
Fastball: 70. Despite only slight tail, Edwards commands his heater well and works at 92-95. It's hard to argue with that.
Breaking Ball: 55. His 11-5 curveball at 75-80 gets the job done, but it could use some improvement.
Changeup: 60. Edwards' changeup is an excellent complement to his fastball, coming in at 82-86 and featuring similar tail with good diving action.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 30 Durability, 35 Stamina, 75 Risk
Pitching Profile: There's no debating the quality of Edwards' arsenal: he has the three-pitch mix that makes up most strong careers. Unfortunately, his frame is overwhelmingly unlikely to carry the load of 200 innings and if tasked with a starting role, I fear that he would break down. As a reliever, I am confident that he would be a true weapon.
Red Flags: The body. Edwards has the pitches and he has progressed nicely. But 155 lbs. is 155 lbs.
Path to the Majors: Edwards has zoomed through the Cubs system since last July's trade with only a pit stop at Daytona before tackling Tennessee this year. If he continues to overwhelm opponents, he could get a cup of coffee in September. However, he'll be given every opportunity to stick in a rotation, so expect to see him return to Iowa for the first half of 2015 in a continuing attempt to gain more weight.
Overall Projection: I think Edwards has the stuff and polish to be an impact arm. I just don't see any world in which his body withstands the demands of starting. Folks have noted that the diminutive Pedro Martinez dominated for a generation. The counterargument is enlightening: despite being two (or three) inches shorter than Edwards, Pedro weighed 25 lbs. more than Edwards. There's a tremendous amount of muscle, particularly in the lower half, that Edwards doesn't have. As such, the risk of too much stress on his elbow and shoulder isn't worth the reward. I think he's going to be a nice relief pitcher with the rare three-pitch mix.
Overall Grade; Role: 65; Closer

9. CF Jacob Hannemann
Date of Birth: 4/29/91 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Transactions: Drafted 75th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 3 Games @ Arizona (Rk), 14 Games @ Boise (A-): 74 PAs, .268/.288/.437, 2.7% BB%, 16.2% K%, 1 HR, 2 3B, 5 2B, 4 SB
Tools: 60 Hit, 55 Power, 60 Discipline, 65 Glove, 60 Arm, 65 Run, 70 Durability, 25 Risk
Offensive Profile: Hannemann has an athletic build that should enable him to hit for power while maintaining plenty of quickness. His swing is compact and quick through the zone, and he gets out the box quickly, enabling him to utilize his speed. His stroke and body suggest a solid, multifaceted future.
Defensive Profile: Hannemann has the package to be a plus defensive centerfielder with a strong enough arm complemented by excellent athleticism, fluid movement, and good speed. He would make an excellent defender in an outfield corner.
Red Flags: Inexperience. Thanks to a Mormon mission and being a dual-sport athlete (football) into college, Hannemann has only been a full-time baseball player for less than a year despite being 23. His progress will be gradual as he needs the repetitions to develop his eye and practice using his athleticism in genuine baseball games.
Path to the Majors: Hannemann will almost certainly be a one-level-at-a-time developer, spending 2014 at Kane County, '15 at Daytona, '16 at Tennessee, and some of '17 at Iowa. While he will be an older prospect, the age should not be discouraging to Cubs fans as his timeline will simply be different based on life circumstances.
Overall Projection: I admittedly have a disproportionately large affection for Hannemann. He strikes me as a Jacoby Ellsbury-type athlete with less speed but more power. He is too good of an athlete not to have some impact potential. His risk is enormous given that he has very little room for error as an older prospect, but the upside is legitimate. I see a plus defensive centerfielder who pumps out .285/.360/.460 lines at maturity with 20 homer power and 25 steals. He could be a monster.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #1, #2, or #5-hitting Regular CF

10. COF Eloy Jimenez
Date of Birth: 11/27/96 (Age 17)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($2.8M bonus)
2013 Stats: Did Not Play
Tools: 65 Hit, 60 Power, 50 Discipline, 50 Glove, 60 Arm, 45 Run, 50 Durability, 35 Risk
Offensive Profile: Jimenez utilizes his big, strong frame to drive his bat through the zone for an extended period of time. This should enable him to consistently make solid contact, allowing his good-but-not-great power potential to play up. He won't be a threat on the basepaths, but high average and good power are useful no matter what.
Defensive Profile: Jimenez's body will force him into an outfield corner and he has the arm for it. He certainly won't be an impact defender and he'll have to work on his flexibility as he fills out his sizable frame, but there's plenty of athleticism here for average defense.
Red Flags: Jimenez is yet to play in an affiliated game in the U.S. There is a long road ahead of him. He looks the part and has displayed strong hitting skills based on reports out of extended spring training, but there is a chasm between where he is right now and the MLB-caliber future version of himself.
Path to the Majors: Even in the most aggressive universe, Jimenez may only get a taste of short-season ball this summer. If everything breaks perfectly for him, he could see full-season ball as an 18-year-old in 2015, but he will need tons of seasoning and development, making 2018 his earliest possible arrival date.
Overall Projection: Jimenez is a good looking athlete with the appearance of useful baseball skills, at least on the practice field. It is difficult to project so far down the line, but the future could hold .285/.350/.475 lines with 25 homers and 5 steals annually for the big Dominican outfielder.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #4 or #5-hitting Regular LF or RF

11. SP Kyle Hendricks
Date of Birth: 12/7/89 (Age 24)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 264th overall by Texas Rangers in 2011; traded with 3B Christian Villanueva to Chicago Cubs for SP Ryan Dempster in 2012
2013 Stats: 21 Games/21 Starts @ Tennessee (AA), 6 Games/6 Starts @ Iowa (AAA): 166.1 IP, 142 H, 34 BB (1.84 BB/9), 128 SO (6.93 SO/9), 5 HR, 46 R, 2.00 ERA, 1.86 GO/AO
Fastball: 45. Hendricks' four-seam fastball is mostly straight and works at just 88-92. It is not an average MLB fastball.
Breaking Ball: 50. His decent slider is a fine complementary pitch, though the movement is not special.
Changeup: 50. Much like his slider, Hendricks' straight changeup gets the job done without exceptional movement.
Additional Pitches: Hendricks also works with a 55-grade two-seam diving fastball at 86-89.
Physical and Other Tools: 70 Command, 80 Durability, 70 Stamina, 80 Risk
Pitching Profile: While the other names on this list all feature big stuff, Hendricks is the anomaly with just enough stuff but tremendous pitchability. He commands his entire arsenal well, working both sides of the plate, and he has plenty of body to suggest that he can carry a full workload on his shoulders.
Red Flags: Hendricks has a low ceiling and he has basically no room for error with underwhelming stuff.
Path to the Majors: He should be among the names called upon to fill rotation spots at Wrigley this summer. When a trade (or trades) opens up a rotation spot (or spots), Hendricks should get a shot to fill it (or them). I suspect that he won't be eligible for this list next spring.
Overall Projection: It's not a terribly sexy profile. Last year, only 19 of the 81 qualified starters averaged a fastball below 90 mph, but even that number is misleading as the list included knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, six lefties, and old guard representatives Bronson Arroyo, Dan Haren, Ryan Dempster, Kyle Lohse, and Bartolo Colon. Simply put, it's tough to survive with such little velocity. I think Hendricks will do it, but I think it means he will be good on his good days and unplayable on his bad ones.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #5 Starter

12. COF Jorge Soler
Date of Birth: 2/25/92 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2012 (9 years, $30M MLB contract)
2013 Stats: 55 Games Games @ Daytona (A+): 236 PAs, .281/.343/.467, 8.9% BB%, 16.1% K%, 8 HR, 1 3B, 13 2B, 5 SB
Tools: 50 Hit, 75 Power, 40 Discipline, 50 Glove, 80 Arm, 40 Run, 30 Durability, 40 Risk
Offensive Profile: Soler's entire game is built on his power and it is legitimate. Although he has developed a disturbing amount of pre-pitch hitches in his load - including both with his front leg and his shoulders - Soler still doesn't get cheated on any swings. When he makes solid contact, the ball will carry. Unfortunately, the hit tool was never going to be a big asset, so Soler needed to rely on his well-regarded discipline to enable his power to play close to its raw ability. Having missed significant time due to multiple injuries, Soler's discipline has taken a serious hit; when I have seen him, he has been completely baffled by any breaking stuff, let alone quality velocity. It's getting hard to imagine him getting on base at a sufficient rate to justify an every day job.
Defensive Profile: Soler was never going to have great speed, but leg injuries have led to him hobbling around the outfield for much of the past year. Assuming a return to health, he will run well enough to get to most balls, although he will likely be a below-average defender overall with an absolutely massive arm helping to offset some of the shortcomings.
Red Flags: Inexperience and health. It's a devastating combination. Soler needed to regularly face professional pitching in game action after missing significant time in order to defect, yet a bevy of injuries have prevented him from doing just that, stunting his growth in the process. His conditioning appeared to be underwhelming last summer and I didn't think he was in any better shape this spring.
Path to the Majors: Perhaps more than any other prospect in the system, Soler needs to play a lot of minor league games so he can see professional breaking pitches and rev up to professional velocity. I will be stunned if he progresses past Tennessee this year, and even with a strong showing in four months there, he might be a candidate for a return trip to the Arizona Fall League after the season before receiving at least a few months at Iowa next year. It's been a bumpy ride thus far, but there's still time for Soler to get back on course and reignite his prospect star. He just needs to play.
Overall Projection: I genuinely believed that Soler had a claim to being the top prospect in the organization as recently as 11 months ago. How quickly things change. At this point, it is difficult for me to see him as an impact regular, although the power alone should still buy him a chance to hold a job. Projecting only marginal improvement over the next couple of years, I see Soler settling in around .255/.310/.485 batting lines with 30 homers and 5 steals; he can still be an every day player but he's likely to be a frustrating one.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #5, #6, or #7-hitting Regular RF

13. RP Arodys Vizcaino
Date of Birth: 11/13/90 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by New York Yankees in 2007 (bonus unknown); Traded with OF Melky Cabrera, RP Mike Dunn, and cash to Atlanta Braves for RP Boone Logan and SP Javier Vazquez in 2009; Traded with RP Jaye Chapman to Chicago Cubs for SP Paul Maholm, OF Reed Johnson, and cash
2013 Stats: Did Not Play
Fastball: 70. Despite featuring only slight tail, Vizcaino's heater works - works - at 95-98. In a recent outing, he dipped to 95 just once. That's amazing velocity.
Breaking Ball: 70. Vizcaino's biting two-plane slider comes in at 82-84 with enough break to baffle opponents.
Changeup: 50. His changeup progressed significantly prior to undergoing 2012 Tommy John surgery, but the pitch hasn't been reworked into his arsenal. It's possible that he'll largely scrap the offering going forward. It's nothing special with mid-80s velocity and some sink.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 25 Durability, 40 Stamina, 60 Risk
Pitching Profile: Although on the smaller side at just 6'0", Vizcaino's power arsenal can play at the back of any bullpen. Add in years of successful starting experience with low walk rates and plenty of strikeouts, and you've got an overqualified reliever forced there out of health necessity. He should have a chance to dominate from the 'pen.
Red Flags: Injury and size. Is there anything scarier than a pitcher missing back-to-back years with elbow surgeries? Even if the elbow comes back strong, it's hard to imagine Vizcaino withstanding the punish of a starting gig. It's a shame.
Path to the Majors: He merely needs to show that he's healthy enough to pitch. At that point, he'd be the best relief pitcher in the system, justifying an immediate call to Chicago.
Overall Projection: Vizcaino has the classic fastball-slider combination that has made many careers. If his changeup comes back, he could find himself looking at some two-inning save opportunities at the back of the bullpen. It's all about health. But if he's healthy, he should be a bullpen monster. Despite a similar projection to Edwards, Vizcaino finds himself down here given that the possibility of starting has been largely foreclosed.
Overall Grade; Role: 70; Closer

14. SS/2B Gleyber Torres
Date of Birth: 12/13/96 (Age 17)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($1.7M bonus)
2013 Stats: Did Not Play
Tools: 55 Hit, 50 Power, 60 Discipline, 60 Glove, 55 Arm, 50 Run, 70 Durability, 40 Risk
Offensive Profile: Whereas Eloy Jimenez got paid because of what he is and what he could be, Torres got paid because he already looks the part. His athleticism is not off the charts, he doesn't project to hit .300, steal 30 bases, or slug 30 homers. However, he already has the body and the present baseball skills to move quickly. He has a hideous double hitch immediately before he starts his swing, but extraneous bat movement is hardly uncommon among teens; this does not present any type of long-term concern. He should get on base well and hit well enough to help his decent power play up.
Defensive Profile: As I watched him in drills, I immediately thought that Torres will lack the range for shortstop at the highest level. I'm sure he'll be given every opportunity to make it there, but I'll be quite surprised if he pulls it off. No matter. He has the glove and arm to be an above-average second sacker.
Red Flags: Age. Torres has much less risk than most teens, but he's still 17. There's a long way to go and a lot of learning to do.
Path to the Majors: Torres will take his sweet time. I imagine that the Cubs will attempt to pair Jimenez and Torres at each level in an effort to provide each of them with some familiarity. As such, any thought of him reaching Chicago before 2018 is likely fluff.
Overall Projection: We're not talking about a star, but that's just fine. Great teams are made up of excellent, good, and even some poor players. Torres can be one of the good ones, an every day player who helps you win some games and doesn't cost you many. I think that he can get to .275/.350/.430 territory with 15 homers and 5 steals if everything breaks just right. Even if he falls a bit short of that, he's a nice player.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #2 or #7-hitting Regular 2B

15. SP Rob Zastryzny
Date of Birth: 3/26/92 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/L
Transactions: Drafted 41st overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 8 Games/7 Starts @ Boise (A-), 3 Games/0 Starts @ Kane County (A): 24.0 IP, 24 H, 8 BB (3.00 BB/9), 22 SO (8.25 SO/9), 0 HR, 6 R, 2.25 ERA, 1.37 GO/AO
Fastball: 50. Zastryzny's heater is a generally straight pitch at 87-91, although he can dial it up a bit more and will occasionally cut or dive the pitch.
Breaking Ball: 45. His 11-5 curveball is a sub-average offering at present, functioning more as a get-me-over breaker than a true weapon.
Changeup: 55. The changeup, while hardly exciting, is the best of the bunch featuring solid tumbling action.
Additional Pitches: Zastryzny also throws a slider, although I can't find it on video anywhere.
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 80 Durability, 70 Stamina, 70 Risk
Pitching Profile: Zastryzny has the body to be a useful starter and his pitches have flashed plenty to justify him sticking in a rotation. Although the stuff is underwhelming, his whole appears to be greater than the sum of his parts. There's enough ability to make some noise.
Red Flags: Ceiling. Even if everything breaks right for Zastryzny, it's difficult to imagine him being an impact arm. Not exactly what you dream about at #41 overall.
Path to the Majors: Zastryzny's timeline jives well with upcoming projected openings in the Cubs rotation as he should spend much of 2014 in Daytona with a call up to Tennessee within the realm of possibility. He will likely spend a good chunk of 2015 at Tennessee but a rotation look is likely as soon as mid-2015 and anywhere thereafter.
Overall Projection: Though the ceiling isn't great, Zastryzny is still a big, sufficiently-athletic lefty with a low-90s fastball, plenty of polish, and some projection remaining. He needs to make a couple of jumps to project as a playoff-caliber starter, but it's easy to see him spending a few years in a big league rotation.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #4/#5 Starter

16. RP Corey Black
Date of Birth: 8/4/91 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 5'11", 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 157th overall by New York Yankees in 2012; Traded to Chicago Cubs for OF Alfonso Soriano and cash in 2013
2013 Stats: 19 Games/19 Starts @ Tampa (A+), 5 Games/5 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 107.2 IP, 101 H, 55 BB (4.60 BB/9), 116 SO (9.70 SO/9), 5 HR, 63 R, 3.93 ERA, 1.31 GO/AO
Fastball: 70. Black's heater is among the best in the system, working 92-96 and featuring big two-plane movement, particularly the tail.
Breaking Ball: 45. It's a slurvy two-plane slider at 84-87 that is relatively easy to spot coming out of this hand.
Changeup: 55. A low-80s pitch with good darting action, his changeup complements his fastball very nicely.
Additional Pitches: Black also features a 55-grade high-70s 12-6 curveball.
Physical and Other Tools: 45 Command, 55 Durability, 35 Stamina, 70 Risk
Pitching Profile: Black's delivery is rather violent, although this is unsurprising given his mid-90s heat from his relatively small frame. His command comes and goes in a style reminiscent of Edwin Jackson: when Black is on, he's a money pitcher. When he's off, a moderately patient hitter can wait for his pitch to drive or saunter down to first after a walk. His fastball is electric though and this will keep him climbing, as well it should. If he sticks in a rotation, he becomes substantially riskier and I'll have greater durability concerns given the frame.
Red Flags: Size and command. Both are handled above. His size is fine for a reliever and his command is as well.
Path to the Majors: Black should get a full year in the Tennessee rotation in 2014 before reaching big league spring training next February with an outside shot at an MLB job. A move to the bullpen could get him to Chicago at some point in 2014.
Overall Projection: As a reliever, Black has a good chance to have a career for himself with an excellent fastball and a few useful secondary pitches. He's unlikely to find himself in the closer's role, but he should be able to serve as an overqualified setup reliever. I don't buy Black as a starter. When I saw him on a September evening last year, he was electric through three innings, then fell off a cliff around the 50 pitch mark in the fourth with his fastball dropping to the 88-90 range. It's a great pitch at 94, but it's only passable at 89. You don't want a shorter, tired pitcher facing an opposing lineup for the third time.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; 7th or 8th-inning Setup Reliever

17. SP Erling Moreno
Date of Birth: 1/13/97 (Age 17)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($650K signing bonus)
2013 Stats: Did Not Play
Fastball: 60. Although he works at just 87-90 currently, Moreno's very straight fastball still has the look of a plus pitch with a few years of development and growth.
Breaking Ball: 35. His slurve needs lots of work but he does command the slow breaker well.
Changeup: 60. Probably his best pitch with big downward movement; it falls off the table with clean arm action.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 50 Durability, 60 Stamina, 30 Risk
Pitching Profile: Moreno has plenty of current size and a frame that should hold an additional 20-30 lbs. of good weight. His delivery is methodical and very easy making his current velocity all the more impressive.
Red Flags: Age. Unless we're talking about Bryce Harper, a 17-year-old is a wild card. There is so much development between now and maturity.
Path to the Majors: Moreno is currently at extended spring training and given his advanced pitchability there is a remote possibility of him reaching Boise this summer. More likely, he will spend the year in Arizona, making a handful of rookie league appearances, before heading to Boise in 2015 with full season ball in 2016 as a 20-year-old. I won't be stunned if he moves a bit faster than most Latino teens, but 2018 is the earliest arrival date.
Overall Projection: Moreno strikes me as a kid who could move quickly but with a lower ceiling. His pitches show signs of being useful top level offerings, but he still needs tons of refinement and will likely never work in the mid-90s to cover up any other flaws. Nonetheless, he's going to have the build of a workhorse starter and the pitches to justify the role.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #3 Starter

18. SP Duane Underwood
Date of Birth: 7/20/94 (Age 19)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 67th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 14 Games/11 Starts @ Boise (A-): 54.1 IP, 62 H, 27 BB (4.47 BB/9), 36 SO (5.96 SO/9), 4 HR, 44 R, 4.97 ERA, 1.53 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Although the pitch lacks movement, Underwood's fastball is still plus as he works 92-94 with the ability for even a bit more given his strong, athletic frame.
Breaking Ball: 55. At 73-75, Underwood's 11-5 curveball can be a plus pitch with only a bit more refinement and repetition.
Changeup: Unknown. I cannot find any video of Underwood's changeup, although reports suggest that he has some feel for it and it could be on par with his curveball with proper development.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 35 Command, 60 Durability, 65 Stamina, 35 Risk
Pitching Profile: Underwood has the proper frame and arsenal to be an above-average starting pitcher. The hope here is that his delivery has calmed and smoothed in the two years since he was drafted as a 17-year-old. Even if he has mechanical work in front of him, it's easy to envision a scenario in which he makes it as a strong option.
Red Flags: Age and command. Underwood still has a lot of development to do and the walks have already begun piling up in the low minors. As he taps into his potential, these problems will either dissipate or derail his future.
Path to the Majors: Underwood is a good candidate to spend the entire season at Kane County. I'd be surprised if he didn't spend all of 2015 in Daytona and much or all of 2016 at Tennessee to throw a few thousand pitches.
Overall Projection: Underwood is a real breakout candidate in the Cubs system. After spending a few years in Arizona with a brief stint in Boise, he has an opportunity to show what made him the 67th pick in 2012 by employing his plus pitches in games. If the command has improved, he could be a rising star in the mold of former Cub farmhand Chris Archer. If the command lags behind, he'll have time to find it, but it darkens the luster of his overall projection.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #3 Starter

19. SP Jefferson Mejia
Date of Birth: 8/2/94 (Age 19)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($850K signing bonus)
2013 Stats: Did Not Play
Fastball: 60. Mejia already has a big fastball working at 90-93 with some tail.
Breaking Ball: 40. His mid-70s 12-6 curveball is currently an unimpressive offering, although I wouldn't be surprised to see the organization push him into a slider given the fastball movement.
Changeup: 60. Mejia's changeup is similar to Moreno's as it is an advanced tumbling offering given his age, even though Mejia is two years older.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 35 Durability, 55 Stamina, 25 Risk
Pitching Profile: Mejia's mechanics are choppy and wasteful as he appears to get only very poor weight transfer from his load to his release. He may have the largest gap in the system between his current ability and his future ceiling given the messiness of his game at present.
Red Flags: Age and mechanics. It's always a little scary to sign a player who previously used a different identity as it calls his actual age into question. Even if he is truly 19, he's still quite raw. His mechanics currently portend injury issues down the road as he simply puts far too much stress on his arm and shoulder to generate velocity despite his massive frame.
Path to the Majors: Mejia needs lots and lots of refinement, even before he should pitch in a short season game. I'd expect that he won't see full season ball until 2016 despite his more advanced age.
Overall Projection: Despite the concerns, Mejia has a #2 starter ceiling even if all of the planets would need to align for him to reach it with his massive body. More realistically, perhaps he can put enough of his game together to be a useful starter with more stuff than results. Given his advanced age for a Latino prospect, it's possible that he'll find himself in a bullpen in the future, but he'll be given a few years to try his hand in a rotation.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #4 Starter

20. 3B Christian Villanueva
Date of Birth: 6/19/91 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 5'11", 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Texas Ranges in 2008 (bonus unknown); Traded with SP Kyle Hendricks to Chicago Cubs for SP Ryan Dempster in 2012
2013 Stats: 133 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 542 PAs, .261/.317/.469, 6.3% BB%, 21.6% K%, 19 HR, 2 3B, 41 2B, 5 SB
Tools: 45 Hit, 55 Power, 50 Discipline, 75 Glove, 60 Arm, 30 Run, 40 Durability, 70 Risk
Offensive Profile: Villaneuva hits for decent power, certainly enough to justify an every day 3B job. However, his inability to hit for average makes it quite difficult to justify a regular job. With only average discipline, he may struggle to keep his OBP above .300. As Cubs fans have seen in Darwin Barney, it's difficult to rationalize an every day job for such a player unless there is massive power attached.
Defensive Profile: But the glove. It's beautiful. Watching Villanueva in spring training was like watching Mariano Rivera in the ninth. His hands vacuum up anything around him and even though he isn't much of an athlete, there was sufficient range. He will stick around for quite a long time if the bat is playable.
Red Flags: OBP. The glove is there and while there may be some health issues given some bad weight, it's really all about his ability to get on base.
Path to the Majors: Villanueva finds himself stuck in a recently-developed logjam at 3B in the organization as Villanueva, Mike Olt, and Kris Bryant have all been added to the fold in the last 21 months, not to mention Javier Baez's possible move to the hot corner. Villanueva's best shot may come with another organization, but he has to hit at AAA first.
Overall Projection: The glove will get him to the show, but I'm not a believe in the on-base skills even if there is enough to carve out a job. He's going to be Darwin Barney: an underqualified starter or an overqualified reserve. I sure hope he proves me wrong at the plate.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #7 or #8-hitting Regular 3B

21. 1B Dan Vogelbach
Date of Birth: 12/17/92 (Age 21)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Transactions: Drafted 68th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 114 Games @ Kane County (A), 17 Games @ Daytona (A+): 566 PAs, .284/.375/.449, 12.9% BB%, 15.7% K%, 19 HR, 0 3B, 23 2B, 5 SB
Tools: 60 Hit, 65 Power, 65 Discipline, 25 Glove, 40 Arm, 20 Run, 35 Durability, 40 Risk
Offensive Profile: Vogelbach has the 1990s-era 1B pedigree: a huge man with huge power and great on-base skills. I think a bit less of Vogelbach's power than most. Despite the impressive showcase displays, his in-game swing doesn't appear to be a sell-out power stroke that many have. Then again, he makes enough contact that the power should play at the 65 level. He is a good hitter with great discipline. The offensive game is sound, although he's unlikely to have more than a handful of infield hits each decade and there will be painful double play grounders unique to him.
Defensive Profile: Vogelbach unfortunately follows in Mo Vaughn's footsteps with the glove too. At least when I saw him, it wasn't pretty. There's not much arm, although that doesn't matter much at 1B, but there also isn't much range.
Red Flags: Body and speed. Vogelbach lost nearly 50 lbs. over his first two full professional seasons, a real testament to his work ethic. However, it's possible that his power stroke suffered as a result without a massive improvement in speed or defensive ability. He needs to run at least adequately to justify an every day gig.
Path to the Majors: Vogelbach is the one truly blocked prospect in the organization with Anthony Rizzo a budding star at 1B and signed for seven additional years. Still, if Vogelbach hits, he'll find a path, likely via trade to an AL team that can use him at DH or a power-light team like San Diego, Miami, or Tampa Bay. He should reach Tennessee this year with a cup of coffee possible by late 2015.
Overall Projection: It's hard not to like Vogelbach. By all accounts, he is a hard worker and a good teammate. It's also hard to like his body. He's the rare ballplayer that could pump out .260/.340/.455 lines at maturity with 25 homers and 0 steals, yet offer only decent value because of concerns elsewhere in his game. I hope the bat explodes and he proves me wrong. Until then, I'm sadly skeptical.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #4 or #5-hitting Regular 1B

22. 3B Mike Olt
Date of Birth: 8/27/88 (Age 25)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 49th overall by Texas Rangers in 2010; Traded with RP C.J. Edwards, RP Justin Grimm, and a PTBNL (RP Neil Ramirez) to Chicago Cubs for SP Matt Garza in 2013
2013 Stats: 3 Games @ Frisco (AA), 65 Games @ Round Rock (AAA), 39 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 432 PAs, .201/.303/.381, 12.7% BB%, 30.6% K%, 15 HR, 1 3B, 20 2B, 0 SB
Tools: 40 Hit, 65 Power, 60 Discipline, 55 Glove, 55 Arm, 40 Run, 35 Durability, 60 Risk
Offensive Profile: Olt's offensive game is built entirely around his big power, genuine pop that plays to all fields. Sadly, his inability to regularly make contact is likely to limit him to a fringe starter future even though he should draw plenty of walks to pair with the homers. His swing is long.
Defensive Profile: Olt has plenty of glove and arm to handle an every day 3B gig, although he is far from the best defensive option in the system. If the offense justifies an every day job, the defense will play just fine on a regular basis.
Red Flags: Contact and health. Olt's health issue - blurred vision in the aftermath of a concussion last year - is among the more bizarre health scares in baseball. Still, if he struggles to pick up the ball well, he's never going to hit for average. His current shortcoming when it comes to regularly making contact looks like it will seriously limit the playability of his power.
Path to the Majors: Olt has a shot at the every day job in Chicago right now. He reached the end of the path.
Overall Projection: Olt has enough tools overall with his defensive game good enough to stick at the MLB level. But it's all about the power. If he makes enough contact, he's going to blast 30+ homers and hold a regular gig. If not, it's difficult to peg his future as most teams prefer to carry reserves with more versatility as replacements. I see Olt for a .230/.305/.425 line in a full season with 25 homers and 5 steals while acknowledging that I hope for more.
Overall Grade; Role: 45; #6 or #7-hitting Regular 3B

23. 3B Jeimer Candelario
Date of Birth: 11/24/93 (Age 20)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2010 ($500K signing bonus)
2013 Stats: 130 Games @ Kane County (A): 572 PAs, .256/.346/.396, 11.9% BB%, 15.4% K%, 11 HR, 1 3B, 35 2B, 1 SB
Tools: 55 Hit, 55 Power, 60 Discipline, 45 Glove, 55 Arm, 35 Run, 35 Durability, 30 Risk
Offensive Profile: Candelario has a little bit of everything with a solid swing that offers some present power and projection. He generally gets high marks for his discipline too.
Defensive Profile: It's hard to imagine Candeliaro being any better than a below-average fielder and I think he may find himself even worse than that. His range is poor, although some improved strength and flexibility could change his future drastically.
Red Flags: Body. Candelario has quite a bit of softness to his physique. He needs to lose significant weight and add significant muscle in order to develop a true home as his body prevents him from handling 3B adequately and he won't have enough speed or bat to carry an outfield corner.
Path to the Majors: Just 20 and a Daytona, Candelario is a one-step-per-year prospect even assuming everything goes well. Struggles will delay the timeframe.
Overall Projection: His body figures to be his downfall as bad weight impacts his ability to reach base on batted balls, stay healthy, and cover ground at 3B. Many prognosticators love Candelario and I'd love to be convinced to love him too. Unfortunately, I just don't see it and the body scares me too much. He could still get to .265/.340/.430 lines at maturity with 15 homers and 0 steals, but that's not enough offense for a regular job given the defensive shortcomings.
Overall Grade; Role: 45; Reserve 1B/3B

24. SP Trevor Clifton (this video is incredible - here's the real scouting)
Date of Birth: 5/11/95 (Age 19)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 348th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 8 Games/1 Start @ Arizona (Rk): 10.1 IP, 13 H, 8 BB (6.97 BB/9), 15 SO (13.06 SO/9), 0 HR, 8 R, 6.97 ERA, 0.50 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Clifton's heater is a hard tailing 90-93 with solid command.
Breaking Ball: 55. His 11-5 curveball is another useful offering, working 74-77 and featuring sweeping movement.
Changeup: Although his changeup is 77-80, I cannot find it on video. Thus, there is no grade for the pitch.
Additional Pitches: Clifton threw a cutter in high school although it is unclear if he will maintain the pitch as a professional.
Physical and Other Tools: 40 Command, 45 Durability, 60 Stamina, 25 Risk
Pitching Profile: Clifton's delivery is choppy and violent with multiple quick movements followed by much slower ones. While this may make him more difficult to time, it will almost certainly derail any developing command. I expect that he will have significantly different mechanics by the time he reaches full-season ball. The frame is light right now, but there should be room for an additional 15-20 lbs., placing him on the fringe of having enough size to start.
Red Flags: Age and mechanics. He's still a teenager. The mechanics are much more alarming as it seems overwhelmingly likely that he will go under the knife soon if he continues working with such violence.
Path to the Majors: Clifton will probably stay in Arizona this year and won't see full-season ball until 2016. If he makes it to Boise instead, perhaps a Kane County job awaits in 2015. Either way, he's five years away.
Overall Projection: The risk is extreme with changing mechanics and a young arm, but Clifton has enjoyed significant success with his old pitching routine and he has the stuff to make it work. All of his pitches need work and the command must improve markedly. But for a 13th round pick, the ceiling is nice.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #3 Starter

25. SP Ben Wells
Date of Birth: 9/10/92 (Age 21)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 220th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2010
2013 Stats: 23 Games/21 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 112.1 IP, 96 H, 40 BB (3.20 BB/9), 69 SO (5.53 SO/9), 7 HR, 50 R, 3.28 ERA, 2.33 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Although he throws it at just 88-92, Wells' two-seamer is effectively a sinker leading to substantial ground ball contact. His command of the offering has traditionally be quite good.
Breaking Ball: 40. Wells' slider moves like a frisbee on a horizontal plane. The pitch hasn't developed much.
Changeup: I cannot find his changeup on video at all, so there's no sense in attempting to grade the pitch.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 65 Command, 30 Durability, 70 Stamina, 40 Risk
Pitching Profile: Wells is a very fast worker, often spending less than 10 seconds after receiving the ball to make his next delivery. His sinker has been his bread-and-butter offering as a professional and it was initially very encouraging. Unfortunately, the amount of contact has become a problem as he has never been able to pick up strikeouts with his secondary arsenal lagging behind. More alarmingly, Wells still has a lot of baby fat on his body despite entering his fourth full season as a professional. It is derailing his career at this point.
Red Flags: Health and secondary stuff. Wells has missed time with injuries in each of the last two years. Perhaps worse, his secondary stuff simply isn't working well enough to record strikeouts in the Florida State League. The concern is that Wells may be stagnating.
Path to the Majors: Thinking about making the Majors seems too distant. Wells needs to get in better shape and throw a few hundred more innings over the next two years. If the results are there and the body comes around, he'll get his shot. There's still time as he is still only 21, but it does feel as though some time has been squandered.
Overall Projection: For all of my frustration with Wells and his shortcomings, there's still time for a useful career. Power sinkers have made many careers, but at some point the secondary stuff has to come along. Without it, he's just a journeyman minor leaguer. With it, he's still got plenty to make it to a major league rotation. It's hard to have faith at this point, but not unreasonable to hold on to some hope.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #5 Starter/Long Reliever

26. RP Neil Ramirez
Date of Birth: 5/25/89 (Age 25)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 44th overall by Texas Rangers in 2007; Traded with RP C.J. Edwards, RP Justin Grimm, and a 3B Mike Olt to Chicago Cubs for SP Matt Garza in 2013
2013 Stats: 21 Games/21 Starts @ Frisco (AA); 1 Game/1 Start @ Tennessee (AA): 107.2 IP, 78 H, 44 BB (3.68 BB/9), 132 SO (11.03 SO/9), 8 HR, 46 R, 3.68 ERA, 1.04 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Working at 92-94, Ramirez's heater is a straight four-seamer.
Breaking Ball: 55. Ramirez throws a high-70s 12-6 curveball with big break.
Changeup: 55. His changeup isn't elite, but the pitch is useful nonetheless.
Additional Pitches: He will also throw a slider, although I can't get a good look at it on video.
Physical and Other Tools: 45 Command, 40 Durability, 40 Stamina, 65 Risk
Pitching Profile: In a somewhat puzzling move, Ramirez was moved to the bullpen full-time by the Cubs in 2014. It's possible that the move was dictated because of his weight; it's also possible that the move came due to lingering concerns about Ramirez's solid but unspectacular command. Whatever the reason, Ramirez is primed to grab a bullpen job and hold it for a few years given his simple delivery. Nothing is exceptional.
Red Flags: Age. It's always a bit scary when a player hasn't grabbed an MLB job at 25, but Ramirez was given numerous opportunities to make it as a starter before making the move to the bullpen. This is nitpicking.
Path to the Majors: He's there right now.
Overall Projection: Ramirez has the look of a useful bullpen piece because of his diverse arsenal but only decent command. It doesn't take much projection at this point to see a 7th-inning role going forward. If he stays healthy and continues improving even just a bit, he'll be a nice, cheap in-house option.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; Reliever (non-closer)

27. RP Armando Rivero
Date of Birth: 2/1/88 (Age 26)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($3.1M signing bonus)
2013 Stats: 11 Games/0 Starts @ Kane County (A), 3 Games/0 Starts @ Daytona (A+), 6 Games/0 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 30.1 IP, 30 H, 12 BB (3.56 BB/9), 45 SO (13.35 SO/9), 4 HR, 16 R, 4.15 ERA, 1.47 GO/AO
Fastball: 65. Despite his wiry frame, Rivero rocks a big fastball at 94-98 with some diving action.
Breaking Ball: 50. Rivero's slurvy breaker around 80 is basically a get-me-over offspeed pitch.
Changeup: 50. His tumbling changeup could be a bit more than the curveball, but it's unlikely to be special.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 40 Durability, 35 Stamina, 60 Risk
Pitching Profile: In order to generate his big velocity, Rivero employs a violent overhand delivery, something that may cause health problems as he continues to pitch with his thin body. There's plenty of present command to make it work, but he needs to face some more advanced hitters to test the usefulness of his secondary pitches.
Red Flags: Secondary pitches. Rivero's heater is a quality MLB offering, but the secondary stuff lags behind. If one pitch makes a jump, his ceiling grows.
Path to the Majors: At 26, Rivero will likely spend another month or so at Tennessee before moving to Iowa for the rest of the year. The door is open for him in 2015.
Overall Projection: Rivero's massive fastball gives him a chance to make some noise. If the command ticks up or one of his secondary pitches improves, he could throw in the ninth inning. Without such improvement, he's a nice piece to have in earlier innings.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; Reliever

28. SP Ivan Pineyro
Date of Birth: 9/29/91 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Washington Nationals in 2010 ($16K signing bonus); Traded to Chicago Cubs for OF Scott Hairston and cash in 2013
2013 Stats: 13 Games/13 Starts @ Hagerstown (A), 3 Games/3 Starts @ Potomac (A+), 8 Games/8 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 125.2 IP, 115 H, 31 BB (rate), 111 SO (rate), 7 HR, 49 R, 3.29 ERA, 1.01 GO/AO
Fastball: 50. Pineyro's velocity isn't special at 88-93, but the two-plane movement enables the pitch to play a bit better.
Breaking Ball: 40. A loopy slurve that isn't scaring anybody.
Changeup: 60. Pineyro's best pitch, his changeup dives down in the zone.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 50 Durability, 50 Stamina, 50 Risk
Pitching Profile: Pineyro is difficult to peg as none of his pitches jump out and his command is far from perfect, yet he has consistently produced strong results. His frame is just big enough to stick in a rotation. At the very lease, additional minor league starts should help him develop his pitches enough to make it as a long man in a bullpen.
Red Flags: Height and velocity. Pineyro's height and only decent velocity could lead to serious home run problems as he climbs the ladder.
Path to the Majors: After only eight starts at A+, Pineyro should have all of 2014 at AA before trying his hand at Iowa in 2015. If all goes well, he can compete for a rotation job in 2016.
Overall Projection: Pineyro lacks the ideal size and velocity to man a rotation spot, but sometimes an excellent changeup makes a good pitcher out of one with otherwise unnoticeable stuff. Pineyro seems like he could be an exception, a guy with better results than expected. I think he can make it to the Majors, but he's fighting for starts or working in the bullpen.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #4/#5 Starter

29. SP Tyler Skulina
Date of Birth: 9/18/91 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'5", 255 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 108th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 8 Games/2 Starts @ Arizona (Rk), 4 Games/4 Starts @ Kane County (A): 24.2 IP, 23 H, 9 BB (3.28 BB/9), 19 SO (6.93 SO/9), 1 HR, 13 R, 4.38 ERA, 1.16 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Skulina throws a classic two-seamer when he gets on top of it as the pitch dives and tails significantly.
Breaking Ball: 60. He has a hard, biting slider at 80-84.
Changeup: 40. His changeup has some sink to it, but there's not enough movement or consistency.
Additional Pitches: Skulina reportedly throws a curveball as well, but I cannot find it.
Physical and Other Tools: 40 Command, 70 Durability, 75 Stamina, 40 Risk
Pitching Profile: Skulina's mechanics appear a bit rigid, and at least in the video linked above, he has serious difficulty repeating his landing spot. Such is the curse of being such a big-bodied pitcher. If the command comes along, he has everything it takes to be a big piece in a rotation.
Red Flags: Mechanics. There's a lot to control with the delivery of such a big body, and Skulina clearly hasns't mastered things just yet. He has time to figure it out, but his command needs to jump a full grade (at least) to make noise.
Path to the Majors: As a collegiate Friday starter, Skulina should move rather quickly with the latter half of this season spent in Daytona presuming all goes well in Kane County. I'd expect to see him push to Tennessee in 2015 with an arrival at some point in 2016. Then again, the command issues could slow him way down.
Overall Projection: Skulina certainly looks the part, but 6'5", 255 lbs. power starters who lead their team to the College World Series tend not to make it out of the first 100 picks in the MLB draft. The command is a problem and until the mechanics smooth out, he's just another name. I think he'll figure it out enough to make some starts at the MLB level, but I'm skeptical that he'll ever develop the command necessary to be a rotation stalwart.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #4 Starter

30. SP Dillon Maples
Date of Birth: 5/9/92 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 429th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 10 Games/9 Starts @ Boise (A-), 11 Games/7 Starts @ Kane County (A): 76.2 IP, 70 H, 50 BB (5.87 BB/9), 75 SO (8.80 SO/9), 1 HR, 53 R, 4.93 ERA, 2.11 GO/AO
Fastball: 70. Maples throws a slightly tailing 91-96. The heater is big.
Breaking Ball: 50. While less impressive, his loopy curveball at 74-77 is nonetheless an adequate second pitch.
Changeup: I cannot find any video of his changeup, although Maples supposedly does have one.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 30 Command, 20 Durability, 40 Stamina, 20 Risk
Pitching Profile: Maples has enough size to make it as a starter, but his messy mechanics haven't improved all that much as he simply hasn't been able to pitch in games. Despite being a 2011 draftee, Maples has just 87 professional innings under his belt.
Red Flags: Health. Maples just can't stay healthy. That run of bad luck continued into 2014 as he will miss the first two months of the season with broken ribs. If you can't pitch, you can't develop and that's where Maples is. Time is running out.
Path to the Majors: This is an unreasonable proposition. Maples has been a professional for nearly three full years and he has just one miserable showing at A ball. He needs to pitch a lot for this to become a relevant issue.
Overall Projection: Maples still has plenty of ceiling despite his shortcomings thus far, but he might actually be further from that ceiling today than he was on draft day 2011. Still, the fastball can be a huge pitch with the curveball sufficient. If he pitches enough and the command comes around, he could still have a future starting games. It's an unlikely proposition at this point, but there's still a tiny bit left to dream on.
Overall Grade; Role: 45; Fringe MLB pitcher

31. CF Matt Szczur (Szczur gets a full profile because of my mistakenly leaving out Vogelbach in the first iteration of this list)
Date of Birth: 7/20/89 (Age 24)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 160th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2010
2013 Stats: 128 Games Games @ Tennessee (AA): 574 PAs, .281/.350/.367, 8.7% BB%, 13.1% K%, 3 HR, 4 3B, 26 2B, 22 SB
Tools: 55 Hit, 35 Power, 60 Discipline, 55 Glove, 40 Arm, 70 Run, 70 Durability, 70 Risk
Offensive Profile: Szczur is an interesting case as he has some value with the bat, although it is largely tied up in batting average and some walks. Unfortunately, pitchers at the top level are likely to force him to hit, something Szczur has done adequately but not fantastically. He does have good speed, although his ability to steal bases slipped last year.
Defensive Profile: Szczur covers ground well in the outfield, although his range is offset a bit by a lacking arm. He is plenty athletic to handle center field which is important because his bat cannot play in a corner.
Red Flags: Ceiling. Although Szczur is a good athlete, the bat just hasn't developed much and although he should be able to hit for decent, below-average power, the power just hasn't materialized.
Path to the Majors: Szczur is already at Iowa and he is on the 40-man roster, so he could conceivably get the call any day as a reserve. He just doesn't offer much beyond what the big club already has in its stable of flawed outfielders.
Overall Projection: Szczur should spend some time at the Major League level, but we're talking about a pinch runner or below-average starter here. By all accounts he is a wonderful human being, so hopefully something clicks for him and he turns into more.
Overall Grade; Role: 45; Reserve CF

20 More in One Sentence (Age and level in parentheses)
32. SP Daury Torrez (21 - A): When a 20-year-old (Torrez turns 21 in June) breaks camp in full-season ball despite never appearing at Boise, my ears perk up. When he carries a WHIP of 1.05 through his first five starts, he's got my attention. Torrez worked down in the zone well when I saw him, but his command has a long, long way to go. There's plenty to work with, but it's hard to put too much stock in what we've seen so far.
33. RP Juan Paniagua (24 - A): Thrice-signed Dominican righty has enormous fastball out of power frame, but very little command.
34. SP Eric Jokisch (24 - AAA): His stuff is similar to that of Chris Rusin, but he has produced at every level and might get a chance to make a few starts.
35. OF Brett Jackson (25 - AAA): The disastrous swing revamp combined with a few untimely injuries dropped Jackson from the prospect landscape, but the tools that made him a big prospect remain. Perhaps some team can take the pressure off and enable him to reach his role 50 ceiling.
36. COF Josh Vitters (24 - AAA): He continues to swing a solid stick when healthy, but injuries and a general lack of athleticism severely limit his ceiling. It's hard to imagine him as anything other than a bench bat.
37. RP Alberto Cabrera (25 - AAA): Recently outrighted off of the 40-man roster, Cabrera still sports an MLB caliber fastball. It's unlikely that he amounts to much at the highest level, but he could return in spot duty.
38. RP Trey McNutt (24 - EST): If only the Cubs had sent McNutt to the Rays for Matt Garza instead of Chris Archer. McNutt gets this mention basically as a reminder that it can all go south quickly.
39. C Mark Malave (19 - EST): The closest thing to a real catching prospect in the entire system, the international bonus baby has a big arm and supposedly some projection as a hitter. He's got a long road ahead of him.
40. SP Dallas Beeler (25 - AAA): Beeler had a nice showing in the Arizona Fall League and has been on the prospect periphery for a while now as a sinkerballer without strikeout stuff. He's hurt now, but he could also nab a start or two at the highest level.
41. RP Tony Zych (23 - AA): Zych has a power tailing fastball, but his frisbee slider never made it. If it ever takes a step, he could be a useful bullpen piece.
42. OF Zeke DeVoss (23 - AA): DeVoss has excellent speed, covers tons of ground in center field, and walks as well as any player in the minors. Unfortunately, he absolutely cannot hit at all and there's no power projection in his frame. But Tony Campana is a major leaguer so there's a chance.
43. UTIL Logan Watkins (24 - AAA): Not all that unlike DeVoss, Watkins draws tons of walks. Watkins hits for much better average and a bit of power too, but he also features far less speed.
44. SP Ryan McNeil (20 - EST): A 3rd-round pick in 2012, McNeil features a heavy low-90s fastball and useful secondary pitches in a slider and changeup. Unfortunately, he also has the Tommy John scar at 20. There's a long road ahead for him, but the arsenal still offers hope.
45. RP P.J. Francescon (25 - AA): Francescon will never make top prospect lists as a 5'11" reliever, but the guy has been successful everywhere despite his stature and only decent arsenal. Continuing to climb is a good sign, but he'll have to prove himself at every level, particularly his command.
46. RP Zac Rosscup (26 - MLB): A LOOGY acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Rosscup gets his strikeouts in a big way and limits hits with the drawback being a very high walk rate.
47. 2B Gioskar Amaya (21 - A+): The diminutive righty doesn't do anything all that well, but he keeps getting himself on base even as the competition improves. Some folks like him a lot while others don't pay any attention. He'll have to prove himself given his physical limitations.
48. SS Marco Hernandez (21 - A+): Amaya's middle infield partner, Hernandez has a more athletic frame and the reputation of having a strong glove, but the bat just isn't there thus far.
49. SP Felix Pena (24 - A+): Pena doesn't have enough weight or impressive enough pitches to warrant a starting job, yet he continues climbing with strong results.
50. RP Gerardo Concepcion (22 - A): Concepcion has always been light on stuff, but he's getting a chance to reinvent himself as a reliever and running with it.
51. OF John Andreoli (24 - AA): Good batting average, lots of walks, and gobs of speed (95 steals between 2012 and 2013), but Andreoli has no power whatsoever. He's got the athletic frame for power, but his game just isn't developed that way. Appeared to be well liked when I saw him.

With the Fourth Pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, the Chicago Cubs Select...

Somebody good.

That's the hope anyway, as it always is.

The new front office's shift in organizational focus from the MLB Cubs to the ranks of the minor leagues coincided well with my growing interest in prospecting a few years back. As such, I find that the kids of the system tend to be far more compelling studies than the fodder making up most of the big club.

This means that I have spent many nights trying to figure out exactly what piece should be added to the organizational puzzle with the team's top pick this June. Here are many of those thoughts.

Best Player Available v. Need

A general issue that must be addressed: should the team draft the best player available ("BPA") or draft for need? This is always an interesting hypothetical debate, but it seems especially pertinent here. The emerging consensus is that the top of the 2014 draft is arm-heavy while the Cubs system is arm-weak. This appears to be a match made in heaven.

But in baseball, even more so than in basketball, football, or hockey, the team should draft the BPA. Drafting based on need is generally a good way to limit the value of the pick. In football, there are situations in which this may make sense. Consider a team with a glaring need at safety but a stout defensive tackle rotation drafting with the top two players on their board a safety and a defensive tackle. In that limited situation, the safety makes sense, particularly if the team can plug said safety into the lineup from Day One and field a contender.

Of course, baseball doesn't work that way with draftees spending somewhere in the range of 2-5 years in the minor leagues before reaching The Show. It's BPA or bust...

Then again, as with all rules, there is an exception to the above: when the BPA has an extremely specific, limited skill set. In the case of the Cubs, I would advise against them drafting a bat-only first baseman what with Anthony Rizzo and Dan Vogelbach both controllable through 2021. With Rizzo, Bryant, and Vogelbach all projecting as playable first basemen and the limited defensive value and defensive home of bat-only, first base-only prospects, I wouldn't draft a first baseman at the top of the draft. Once you reach the third or fourth round of the MLB draft, basically every rule goes out the window and teams should be drafting the BPA even if the result is positional stacking.

The Draft Prospects

With that out of the way, here's my preference, in order, for the Cubs at #4. Only four prospects make this list, though I'll briefly address my issues with those not making the cut at the end.

1. LHP Brady Aiken
School: Cathedral Catholic HS, Cardiff by the Sea, CA
Date of Birth: 8/16/96 (draft day age: 17 years, 9 months)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 205 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/L
Analysis: Of all the prospects I have seen on video and read about over the past four years, Aiken is my favorite. The California lefty features a mid-70s 12-6 curveball that profiles as a 60 pitch. He also throws a low-80s changeup that already has the look of an average offering and should be in the 65 range at maturity. The secondary stuff alone is enough to get him drafted in the first round.

But three factors get him to my top spot: age, mechanics and the fastball. I'll address them in reverse order. The fastball is a beast. He was consistently throwing it in the high-80s and low-90s until the beginning of the 2014 prep season when he unleashed 92-95 consistently while repeatedly hitting 97. Even if the pitch had no movement, it would be a 70 grade pitch. Given it's slight tail, I'm comfortable slapping a future 80 on it as his command develops. It is a monstrous pitch from a lefty.

Aiken's delivery is extremely smooth. He has a fluid windup with little-to-no unnecessary movement. His delivery is closer to 3/4 than a true over-the-top motion, but the fluidity of the complete motion suggests that he stands a good chance of maintaining his health as he progresses. Excellent physical conditioning has certainly helped him keep his delivery clean, something that should also help him move rather quickly through an MLB system even as a high school draftee.

His timeline brings us to the final factor. Aiken will be 17 years, 9 months old on draft day. The good folks at Fangraphs ran a piece a few years ago detailing the impact of prospect age, unsurprisingly finding that 17-year-olds who projected at a high level produced better than their 18-year-old competitors from the same drat class given that they were a full year less developed yet already possessed similar talent.

Aiken already has possibly the best stuff in this draft class, he has clean mechanics, a clean bill of health, excellent physical conditioning, and he is among the youngest players eligible for selection. If he is on the board at #4, I sure hope that the Cubs snatch him up, adding a potential 80 grade starter to the organization who looks like a 60 grade starter even if it doesn't quite come together for him as planned.

2. LHP Carlos Rodon
School: NC State
Date of Birth: 12/10/92 (draft day age: 21 years, 5 months)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 234 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/L
Analysis: Long-presumed to be the top pick in the draft class, Rodon saw his perch waiver a bit during the early portion of the college season. More recently, his velocity returned and he showed the ability to dominate hitters that scouts had been looking to see.

Rodon's bread and butter is a low-to-mid-90s four-seam fastball that generates a bit of tail thanks to some whip in his delivery. He complements the four seamer with a two-seam heater in the low-90s with more dive and tail. Presumably the fastballs may be used in conjunction with each other to generate weak contact. Especially from a lefty, we're looking at a 70 grade fastball given his ability to change speeds and movement.

Rodon's go-to offspeed pitch is a slider/cutter hybrid that works in the high-80s, though he can add a bit of velocity or subtract a bit to get more movement. The pitch doesn't generate the two-plane movement of most great sliders, but the velocity and horizontal movement should still give him a 65 grade pitch.

His slower offspeed pitches require more projection. He does throw a mid-70s curveball and a low-80s changeup, but neither pitch projects as a plus offering, nor has either pitch functioned as a major part of his arsenal.

Rodon is generally regarded as having average command, although he could use to improve in that area. Of greater concern to met are his mechanics. Unlike Aiken, Rodon has some jerkiness to his delivery. It appears though he loses some of his lower half prior to release, causing excess stress on his shoulder to generate velocity. His windup and delivery is certainly not as fluid as Aiken's.

Nonetheless, Rodon features an elite fastball and a possibly elite slider/cutter with the ability to alter those pitches in a way that suggests advanced pitchability. Although he currently lacks an MLB-caliber third pitch, it's not hard to imagine him refining his changeup, fixing his curveball, or even learning a splitter. With a third offering in hand, Rodon could be among the top five lefty starters in baseball within a couple of years with a 65 grade profile. That's certainly worth a top-four pick, even with the mechanical concerns.

3. RHP Tyler Kolek
School: Shepherd High School, Shepherd, Texas
Date of Birth: 12/15/95 (draft day age: 18 years, 5 months)
Height, Weight: 6'5", 250 lbs.
Bat/Throw: R/R
Analysis: Power, power, and more power. Kolek's fastball velocity is a pure 80 as he works in the mid-90s and has repeatedly hit triple digits with the offering. Unfortunately, the pitch lacks movement and Kolek has a long way to go in truly commanding the offering. Even if the command lingers behind the velocity at maturity, it's still a 70 or 75 grade pitch.

It gets a lot messier after that. His most promising secondary offering is a low-80s slider that has sharp, two-plane break to it, though command is still an issue. His mid-70s curveball and low-80s slider lag significantly behind the slider, let alone the fastball.

From what I have seen, command is currently a weak spot. Kolek gets good marks for his effort and this could be a coachable area for him as a professional. Similarly, while his massive athletic frame garnered interest from Texas A&M as a defensive lineman, Kolek likely needs to lose a bit of weight as he matures. This shouldn't be a major concern and converting some baby fat to muscle will leave him with an ideal workhorse physique.

His delivery is fluid and he uses his large body well to generate velocity without appearing to put excess stress on his arm. The arm will take a beating at that velocity level regardless of mechanics, but the body and delivery should keep him healthy.

Selecting Kolek would represent a serious vote of confidence in the minor league coaching staffs. He's got a long ways to go in refining his arsenal, unlike Aiken, but if he reaches his potential he's an 80 grade ace. The stuff is good enough that he should make the majors regardless, but if his command falters, he may end up as a back-of-the-rotation starter or even at the back of the bullpen.

4. OF/C Alex Jackson
School: Rancho Bernardo High School, Escondido, CA
Date of Birth: 12/25/95 (draft day age: 18 years, 5 months)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 210 lbs.
Bat/Throw: R/R
Analysis: To me, Jackson is the one bat worthy of selection at #4. Alarmingly, he is even more "boom or bust" than Javier Baez was in 2011.

Jackson is all about the bat. He has a big, athletic physique that can likely hold plenty of additional muscle, although he is already plenty developed currently. He has a swing with a lot of moving parts, featuring a sizable load and leg kick, and I suspect that this will be easily quieted as he develops.

He is athletic enough and has a pretty enough swing to generate significant power. He projects offensively in a manner very similar to Kris Bryant as a 50-55 hitter with 70-75 grade power. Bryant's discipline and patience figure to allow the power to play in spite of only an average hit tool; I can't speak to Jackson's discipline but that's part of the nature of drafting a high school bat. The risk is higher.

The big wild card with Jackson is his defensive home. He will certainly be athletic enough to man a corner outfield spot. He doesn't project to be better than a 40 grade runner, but his big arm and generally athleticism should render him playable in the outfield. However, Jackson is currently a catcher and I suspect that whatever team drafts him will give him every opportunity to stick behind the dish. If he can be even a below average but playable defender, his bat would enable Jackson to be among the most valuable players in the game. His physique may not allow for it. But if it does, he could be a monster in the Buster Posey mold with less on base ability but more power.

The Not-Quite-Good-Enough Prospects

According to Patrick Mooney on CSN Chicago, the Cubs are considering eight prospects in addition to the four listed above. Here are the prospects and why I think the Cubs should pass:

RHP Tyler Beede, Vanderbilt: Despite Beede's connection to Cubs Minor League Pitching Coordinator Derek Johnson, Beede doesn't have the upside to warrant such a high selection. He profiles as a #4 starter to me with decent but unspectacular stuff and some command issues.

RHP Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina: The big, powerful righty could develop the arsenal to pitch atop a strong rotation, but he looks a bit out of control in his delivery for my taste. I'm concerned about his ability to command any of his arsenal, not just the secondary stuff. He'd present good value in the middle of the first round but not in the top five.

SS Jacob Gatewood, CA High School: Gatewood is similar to Jackson in that he is a big, strong, and athletic high school power hitter. But where Jackson's swing is smooth, Gatewood's is choppy and awkward with an extreme uppercut. If he needs that uppercut to generate power, he's never going to hit much.

SS Trea Turner, NC State: Easily my least favorite of the supposed contenders for a top-ten selection, Turner simply can't hit. He's never going to hit for any power. It's hard to justify a top-five pick on a player who will never have the ability to hit for power, and even with good speed and defense, I'd be despondent if we chose him.

C/1B Kyle Schwarber, Indiana: Schwarber is a beefy prospect with a good looking swing and an advanced approach. His bat should carry him to the majors and the possibility of him sticking at catcher in enticing. However, to me, he isn't much of an athlete, all but ruling out staying at catcher. The value of a bat-only first baseman better be off the charts to justify a top-five pick and Schwarber looks like a good, not great, prospect.

RHP Aaron Nola, LSU: It's all about the release point for me with Nola. His very low release point leads to a relatively flat fastball. Flat fastballs don't work at the highest level; the pitcher either needs downward trajectory from a high release point or downward movement from spin. Nola has neither. Drafting a pitcher at #4 with a middling fastball? No thanks.

SS Nick Gordon, FL High School: Much like his older brother Dee, Nick is a beanpole. He certainly projects to have more power than Dee as he fills out a bit more, but his game is currently too sloppy for me to see a star. Some team will draft him highly based on his overall ceiling given contributions in multiple facets of the game.

OF Michael Conforto, Oregon State: Conforto has no defensive value as a below-average left fielder or possible first baseman at the highest level. His bat is pretty with a compact lefty power stroke and excellent discipline at the plate. Still, his defensive, running, and athletic shortcomings make a top-five pick a reach.

LHP Brandon Finnegan, TCU: A diminutive (5'11") lefty, Finnegan nonetheless generates big velocity, working in the 90s with the ability to ratchet things up to the high-90s. His command is solid, but the secondary pitches, while projectable, lag behind at this point with his breaker a bit too slurvy and his changeup a bit too straight.

Conclusion

I am, rather obviously, less enthused with Alex Jackson than I am with the three pitchers that proceed him. But I think his power bat warrants top-five selection.

I really like Tyler Kolek. While acknowledging that his command appears lacking at this point, the fireballing teenager is too reminiscent of Kerry Wood to ignore. Plus, he's got the body to stick in a rotation even if the command never perfects.

Carlos Rodon would be a gift at #4, although his NC State coaches allowing him to throw 134 pitches in a recent start suggests that the box may have a few dents and dings in it. Regardless, he would immediately be among the best pitching prospects in the game upon selection and would figure into the Cubs' plans as soon as 2016.

But I'd pass on all three of those guys and every other player in the draft for the chance to select Brady Aiken. He is the complete prospect package: physique, velocity, movement, repeatability, mechanical soundness, conditioning, and diversity of arsenal.

So that's it. In my perfect world, the Cubs get Brady Aiken at #4, he flies through the system, and makes David Price look like Shawn Estes. Of course, he could just as easily turn out like Mark Pawelek. Such is life in the draft.

Cecilio Aybar and Unintended Consequences in the World of International Amateur Free Agents

This entry will tell a story. Actually, it will tell three stories that weave together to tell one story that Major League Baseball would almost certainly prefer not to tell. I prefer to live in reality with all of its messes, so here we go.

The New International Signing Bonus Regime
Seen largely as a precursor to an international draft, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to institute a new system to curb spending on international amateur free agents in advance of the 2012-13 signing period. Teams spent a total of $47M in the 2011-12 signing period between July and December 2011, yet they appear to have spent significantly in the first six months of 2012 as well, a rarity in the past but an impact of the new system in place in July 2012. Spending in calendar year 2011 and 2012 was down $3M, suggesting that the new regime had its desired effect; the MLBPA preferred to see some of that cash deposited into the pockets of members as opposed to those of Dominican, Venezuelan, Taiwanese, and South Korean teenagers.

Overall, spending went from $73M in 2010 to $87M in 2011, down to $84M in 2012, then back up all the way to $97M in 2013. Such figures do not include the massive deals given to international free agents Yoenis Cespedes, Jorge Soler, and Yasiel Puig. Simply put, even with strict penalties in place that significantly limit maximum expenditures in future years for exceeding a team's bonus pool, teams just kept on spending.

The penalties themselves were designed to be so onerous that no team would reasonably exceed them. Each team is given a pool of bonus money to spend in inverse relation to their wins in the previous season. The pool is calculated by giving each team $700K and then the corresponding amount to each of their imaginary international draft pick slots. This method is important because those slots may be traded.

The most stringent penalty in the 2013-14 period is enforced against a team that spent more than 15% over its pool allotment. If spending exceed 115% of the bonus pool, the team pays a 100% tax on the overage and may not sign a player for more than a $250K bonus in the 2014-15 signing period. Effectively the penalty takes the team out of the running for any of the top 50 international prospects in the subsequent year. A team exceeding the bonus pool in the same fashion in the 2014-15 signing period instead of the 2013-14 signing period is met with an even harsher penalty: the same 100% tax on the overage and the inability to extend a bonus in excess of $250K in the next two signing periods.

Chicago Cubs Spending in the 2013-14 International Signing Period
Generally speaking, spending continued to climb at a gradual rate. After a few international bonus slots were traded, bonus pools ranged from the Cubs with $5,520,300 down to the Angels at just $1,389,700. Just two teams spent in excess of $4.5M, but they both blew past that number. The Rangers and the Cubs acknowledged and took advantage of the fact that spending 115.0000001% of your bonus pool was met with the same penalty as spending 150% of the bonus pool, although the attendant tax hit obviously increased as well. Both clubs spent over $8M on international amateur signing bonuses.

The Rangers have employed this strategy for years with their approach in the 2013-14 period suggesting only that they would largely continue along the same lines until the Collective Bargaining Agreement stopped them from doing so, which it will for the 2014-15 period as their penalty restricts them to maximum bonuses of $250K.

But for the Cubs, this represented a major shift. I examined what records I could find of the Cubs spending on international signing bonuses dating to 2007. For each year, I recorded every bonus of at least $100K and then assigned a gradually escalating estimate for bonuses below that $100K figure, starting with $1.5M in 2007 and climbing to $2.1M in 2013. By my calculations and estimates, the Cubs spent the following amount on truly amateur international free agents (thus, Jorge Soler and Gerardo Concepcion are excluded as veterans of Cuba's Serie Nacional):

2007: $2.72M
2008: $3.74M
2009: $4.725M
2010: $6.975M
2011: $7.02M
2012: $4.67M (this year would otherwise include $10.6M of bonus and salary for Soler and Concepcion)
2013: $13.8697M (excludes $1.6M salaries for Soler and Concepcion; includes $3.1247M in tax)

(It is possible that reporting of these signings improved over time, thus explaining some of the increase in spending. I think a philosophical shift in the organization is more likely.)

The Cubs didn't just spend: they spent on the premier talent available. The great folks at Minor League Ball, Baseball America, and MLB.com provided rankings of the top 30 (or more) prospects available in July 2013. The following shows the Cubs' haul with their respective rankings by the three sources above in parentheses:

$2.8M for OF Eloy Jimenez (1, 1, 1)
$1.7M for SS Gleyber Torres (2, 2, 3)
$1.625M for RHP Jen-Ho Tseng (12, 23, 29)
$850K for RHP Jefferson Mejia (20, unranked, unranked)
$650K for RHP Erling Moreno (48, 16, 17)
Unknown amount for 3B Wladimir Galindo (64, unranked, 25)

The Cubs also added C Johan Matos for $270K. While that bonus is not substantial for a July 2nd signee, it was an essential addition to an organization without any catching depth.

Still, two names on the above list stand out and they are those with "unranked" written after their names. First, Mejia was unranked by Baseball America and MLB.com because he had previously falsely reported his age and was forced to wait a year to sign by MLB. Regardless, 6'7", 220 lbs. righties who throw in the low-90s are wonderful assets whether they are 16, 17, or 18, so the Minor League Ball ranking is likely most indicative of his talent.

Second, Galindo did not sign until December 18th, an oddity for top amateur talent. It is possible that identity issues delayed his signing, although I have not been able to find anything suggesting such. Still, Galindo's signing shows that the July 2nd signing period lasts all year, until the next July 2nd period (technically, the signing period runs from July 2nd to the following June 15th).

Cecilio Aybar and Identity Fraud
As noted above, Gleyber Torres was the #2 player for Minor League Ball. But that's not entirely accurate. Minor League Ball initially released their rankings on April 28th. In the intervening months, Minor League Ball's #2 prospect, a Dominican shortstop "named" Obispo Aybar-Lara was suspended from signing for one year by MLB when it was revealed that the 16-year-old Aybar-Lara was actually 19-year-old Cecilio Aybar, Obispo's older brother. The Minor League Ball ranking addressed the concerns, noting that Aybar would still be in the 15-20 range and worthy of a seven-figure bonus even if he proved to be 19 instead of 16 with his speed, defense, and a quick bat providing value regardless of age; his true age almost certainly curbs any power projection as a 165 lbs. 16-year-old offers more physical projection than a 19-year-old of the same weight. Still, 6'0", 180 lbs. - a realistic physical projection - would be plenty of size to stick as a shortstop if the glove and speed are legitimate. The site did re-rank prior to the signing period opening, placing Aybar at #31.

As punishment for falsifying records, Aybar received a one-year ban from MLB leaving him eligible to sign as of April 26, 2014. In many ways, Aybar is merely another in the long line of age and identity fraud among Latin American teenagers who seek to add a zero to their bonus number.

So How Does It All Fit Together?
You can probably see where this is going. Because Aybar's one year ban leaves him eligible to sign in April 2014, he is eligible to sign a bonus that will count against the signing team's 2013-14 pool provided that he signs his contract prior to June 15th. By my count, the Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers have clearly exceeded their pools by more than 15% while the excess of some other teams appears close to the limit based on some admittedly imperfect information.

Regardless, the twisted situation has presented itself: a top international prospect, one worthy of a high-six or low-seven-figure bonus, is about to find himself on the market with the three most aggressive spenders on the international market as his three most incentivized suitors as the Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers will not incur any additional penalties for a signing of any amount (beyond the tax payment). To make matters worse for MLB (and better for the signing team assuming that it is one of these three), they get to use cash from the 2014 budget to make the signing, effectively allowing them to participate for major talent in the 2014-15 signing period in spite of the CBA's penalties.

Aybar's punishment for his identity fraud may very likely be a few months of shame and a six-figure bonus anyway from a desirable team. I suppose that there is a remote possibility that concerns about Aybar's ability to obtain a visa will quash his market, but this seems highly unlikely.

With all of that said, I hope that the Cubs pursue and sign Aybar. I tend not to think too highly of speed/defense middle infielders because I want everyone to hit for power, but a 70 speed shortstop with the chops to be an asset with his glove and a playable bat is a really valuable asset. If Aybar's projection doesn't match the bonus, they should probably avoid him. But if he really is a top-30 talent or thereabouts, the chance to acquire him for the Cubs is yet another golden opportunity to beef up the farm system even if MLB and MLBPA might just hate it.

2014 MLB Predictions

My two-year-old daughter Lilly has a new love in this world: baseball song. Many times each day, she asks her mom "Daddy, baseball game?" to find out when we can go to our first game of the year. She knows that Daddy cheated and went to the Phoenix area for a weekend of baseball with her Baba, Grandma, and Uncle Mike, but that hasn't tempered her enthusiasm. She finishes my lines on "Go Cubs Go," "Take Me Out to the Ballgame," and "Hey Hey Holy Mackerel;" she regularly asks for "Mackerel" by name and it's basically the sweetest thing in the world.

She has only ever known truly dreadful Cubs teams in her short life. Thankfully, there's reason for hope around the corner, and she is regularly told of the brighter days in 2015 and beyond.

Unfortunately, 2014 has to happen first. With that in mind, here's a look at what I foresee happening this year with full appreciation for the fact that these predictions will be senseless by next week (just think about those poor souls who thought Oakland or Atlanta's pitching would carry them to the promised land a few weeks ago).

AL West
1. Texas Rangers (88-74). There's enough talent here for them to hang on for one more year, but the pitching behind Yu Darvish does look shaky to me.
2. Anaheim Angels (84-78). Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton. They've got to score at some point, right? I think the offense explodes as Pujols has at least one more big year in him, but the pitching keeps them from the postseason picture.
3. Seattle Mariners (79-83). The Cano signing pushes them to respectability, but they needed Taijuan Walker to grab a job from the get-go to make noise in 2014. There are lots of bats without speed or defense. Still, I'm one of the few who genuinely likes the Cano contract for Seattle while acknowledging the dead weight on the back end.
4. Oakland Athletics (77-85). The pitching injuries already hit, and every now and then even Billy Beane can't pull a rabbit out of a hat.
5. Houston Astros (63-99). They are still dreadful, but the arrival of George Springer, Jon Singleton, Dexter Fowler, and even Scott Feldman should make the club solidly better than in 2013. The pitching is still really awful.

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (89-73). The Tigers are lucky that their division is so weak. With an aging core and no depth on offense or in the rotation, a strong debut from Nick Castellanos is the only thing that props them up for one more year. That and the fact that there rest of the division just isn't good.
2. Cleveland Indians (87-75). I like Cleveland quite a bit. They have a pair of centerpiece bats in Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana - hopefully third base doesn't affect Santana at the plate - to go along with a deep rotation with a contract year near-ace (Justin Masterson) and a rising star (Danny Salazar). If Lonnie Chisenhall gives them anything, they could unseat Detroit.
3.Kansas City Royals (83-79). The Royals may be baseball's most interesting team to watch this year. The lineup includes Eric Hosmer's attempt to breakout, solid veterans in Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, and massive breakout candidates/wild cards in Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain. Much like Cleveland, the rotation has a contract year ace (James Shields) and young fireballer Yordano Ventura who looks like a real pitcher with an electric arm. The other rotation arms - Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, and Bruce Chen - keep the Royals afloat but also keep them from taking the next step. If Kyle Zimmer can force his way to Kansas City after the All-Star Break, they could have a run in them.
4. Chicago White Sox (72-90). The White Sox at least have some interesting pieces with Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Matt Davidson, and Erik Johnson all showing up to complement Chris Sale. There's still not nearly enough talent to contend however. At least this is Adam Dunn's swan song.
5. Minnesota Twins (70-92). While signing Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes should help this year, the rest of the team is very poor with replacement-level talent occupying a plethora of starting spots.

AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (93-69). They're going to have 162 games started by good, competent MLB starting pitchers with David Price, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Erik Bedard, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Karns, and Jeremy Hellickson all on board. Wow. The offense isn't deep, but a 2-3-4 of Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Wil Myers will score enough.
2. Boston Red Sox (91-71). I have never understood the Jackie Bradley Jr. hype, but it doesn't matter with Grady Sizemore apparently "back," at least until he's gone again. The lineup has a deep core, and there is enough pitching for a good start every time out. It's hard to pick against that bullpen.
3. New York Yankees (88-74). They made a lot of loud moves this winter, but there are still too many holes to overtake Tampa Bay and Boston. I think that they're just better than a .500 team that will pull off another big move or two in a push for October that barely proves successful. Fox is salivating at the possibility of a Yankees-Red Sox playoff game.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87). The roster plays to its potential. Unfortunately, they're stuck in the AL East, so it doesn't mean much as they're only on track for something like 82 wins at the All-Star break. They could win about eight more games if they keep the team together, but GM Alex Anthopolous is fired and the new regime decides to blow it up and start over, leading to lots of late season losses.
5. Baltimore Orioles (75-87). I genuinely like what the Orioles did this offseason, but there still just isn't enough pitching. If Chris Davis returns to earth, it's going to be the first ho-hum summer in Baltimore in a few years. It's about time for the Matt Wieters trade rumors to heat up, and he is going to command a pretty penny if they decide to move him.

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (99-63). Anything less than 95 wins should be seen as a massive disappointment. Money can't buy happiness, but it can buy a sterling pitching rotation with depth. The cost of such a rotation is mind-numbing: Clayton Kershaw ($22M - he's at $30M+ for the following six years), Zack Greinke ($24M), Hyun-Jin Ryu ($3.5M), Dan Haren ($10M), Paul Maholm ($6.5M assuming he meets likely incentives), Josh Beckett ($15.75M), and Chad Billingsley ($12M) combine to cost $93.75M in 2014, making their top seven starters the 17th highest team payroll in MLB. The offense has oodles of star power with the likes of Matt Kemp on the outside looking in.
2. San Francisco Giants (88-74). There's not much pitching depth beyond the top five, but the lineup is as strong as it has been in years with Pablo Sandoval's contract year propelling the unit.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77). The loss of Patrick Corbin is the loss of a playoff spot. The very strong Arizona lineup is complemented well by a very solid, league-average pitching staff that just needs another big arm. Archie Bradley could be that arm, as could Jeff Samardzija. If the Cubs deal Samardzija in 2014, Arizona still makes more sense than anyone else as the Snakes stand so much to gain from such an acquisition.
4. Colorado Rockies (78-84). One way to be an average team is with a strong offense and weak pitching. That has been Colorado's preferred method for basically their entire existence and it will rear its head again in 2014.
5. San Diego Padres (77-85). Average pitching and a below-average lineup does not a contender make.

NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65). Duh. Even though I'm not much of a Peter Bourjos fan, the lineup is incredibly deep with above-average players at every spot. But it's always about the pitching with St. Louis, and 2014 will be yet another confirmation that piles of pitching always win in baseball. Gross.
2. Cincinnati Reds (85-77). The health red flags were everywhere with this team even before Aroldis Chapman's horrific injury. Although the pitching looks good and the offense has some really big bats, I just have a feeling that this is the year Cincinnati struggles.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80). The Brewers are going to surprise a lot of folks with some really good baseball in 2014. Few offenses can match the quartet of Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura given their across-the-board contributions. First base has been a massive hole since Prince Fielder left (pun intended), and it will keep them from October.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (81-81). At least it's another year without being under .500. Gregory Polanco can't get there fast enough as Andrew McCutchen needs another star to help carry the load. The pitching looks good and the lineup looks good too, but outside of McCutchen, there's no greatness to bump them back among the contenders.
5. Chicago Cubs (58-104). It's all part of the plan. Starlin Castro will quiet at least some of his critics with his offensive showing and Javier Baez will inject some much-needed excitement into the fan base in the second half. But the offense is horrendous and the pitching is below-average. When the annual sell off ships out the likes of Nate Schierholtz, Luis Valbuena, Jason Hammel, Carlos Villanueva, and, most importantly, Jeff Samardzija, the club will seriously resemble the above-average AAA squad that they are. By 2016, fans will have a very hard time remembering the 2014 Opening Day lineup.

NL East
1. Washington Nationals (91-71). Anyone else winning this division will be a massive upset. The pitching is strong up top and throughout while the lineup doesn't have a poor bat to be found. It's a strong roster.
2. Atlanta Braves (87-75). Even at 87 wins, this number is a "what could have been?" tally as Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy will both be sorely missed. The Atlanta offense has a chance to be special, but that requires the reemergence of Dan Uggla and/or B.J. Upton. I wouldn't bet on it.
3. New York Mets (75-87). I think Curtis Granderson will have a good year and David Wright will love having him around. It's a good thing too because little else excites me about this team.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (71-91). The Phillies take a lot of heat in the blogosphere, and they are most likely the worst team in baseball that is actively trying to win. Still, with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and A.J. Burnett, a strong season is possible if....never mind. It's still an offense of Chase Utley - assuming his knees are alright - and nothing else exciting.
5. Miami Marlins (62-100). The Miami offense outside of Giancarlo Stanton is truly dreadful. But the pitching is a different story with a true ace in Jose Fernandez, a young top-of-the-rotation arm in Henderson Alvarez, a solid mid-rotation guy in Nate Eovaldi, a few back-end options in Jacob Turner, Brad Hand, and Tom Koehler all in front of a barrage of pitching prospects headlined by Andrew Heaney. They'll pitch too well to be the league's worst team, even if the offense will be a punishment to the eyes.

Playoffs
Compared to the 2013 postseason, this would see the Yankees and Rangers enter the AL picture at the expense of the Athletics and Indians. In the NL, the Nationals and Giants would kick out the Pirates and Reds. Based on the above records, the playoff tree is as follows:

AL Wild Card: New York Yankees @ Boston. I'll take the Sawks.
NL Wild Card: Atlanta @ San Francisco. Again, I'll go with the home team.

AL Divisional: Boston @ Tampa Bay. I like the Rays in a season, but I'll take Boston in a short series.
Texas @ Detroit. Tigers in a sweep.
NL Divisional: San Francisco @ Los Angeles. The Giants win in the playoffs and there's so much pressure on the Dodgers. Too much.
Washington @ St. Louis. I'll be contrarian and take the Nats.

AL Championship: Boston @ Detroit. The Tigers may be nearing the end, but they'll make the Fall Classic anyway.
NL Championship: San Francisco @ Washington. Nats Nats Nats.

World Series: Detroit v. Washington (home field determined by silly exhibition). The Nats just have the right stuff.

Awards
AL MVP: Mike Trout. Obviously. No projection necessary.
NL MVP: Bryce Harper. It's time and if the Nats are excellent, it'll be due to Harper's excellence. Something like a .290/.385/.540 line with 30+ homers and 15+ steals should do it.
AL Cy Young: David Price. He's healthy and this maybe a contract year with a trade at some point in the next 12 months followed by an extension.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw. The best of his generation.
AL Rookie of the Year: Masahiro Tanaka. I don't like that Tanaka will be eligible for the award as a professional veteran, but he'll win it anyway.
NL Rookie of the Year: Kolten Wong. He'll narrowly beat out Arizona shortstop Chris Owings thanks to hitting in an excellent lineup and playing the full season.


Draft Order
Based on these results, the top ten draft picks in 2015 will be:

1. Chicago Cubs (58-104)
2. Miami Marlins (62-100)
3. Houston Astros (63-99)
4. Minnesota Twins (70-92)
5. Philadelphia Phillies (71-91)
6. Chicago White Sox (72-90)
7. New York Mets (75-87)
8. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87)
9. Baltimore Orioles (75-87)
10. San Diego Padres (77-85)

Compared to the 2014 draft, only Seattle and Colorado would drop out of the top ten picks with the Padres and Orioles jumping in to take their places.

Why Isn't Giancarlo Stanton a Cub Yet?

Obviously the title is a rhetorical question. There are plenty of reasons why Stanton doesn't play for the Cubs with the simplest being that the Marlins own his rights, he is a tremendously talented baseball player, and, like other teams, the Marlins like having tremendously talented baseball players.

The title is there to get your creative juices flowing. This fine piece on Fangraphs explains why the Marlins are overwhelmingly unlikely to keep Stanton long-term. Simply put, he is about to cost the team a whole boatload of money before they're likely to be very good. Further, Stanton is unlikely to sign an extension in Miami given his public frustration with the team's progress or lack thereof. In almost every regard, dealing Stanton is the correct move for the Marlins and dealing him sooner rather than later makes sense for two reasons. First, it maximizes the return given that Stanton has three remaining years of team control. Second, it minimizes Miami's risk that Stanton suffers a serious injury, not an insignificant concern in light of Stanton's hobbled past.

The Cubs and Marlins appear to be on very similar trajectories. Both teams have been staples in the top-10 of the draft and will be for the foreseeable future. Both teams have amassed enviable stocks of prospect talent. And both teams are going to be really, dreadfully bad in 2014. 2015 appears to be a year of hope for both franchises with 2016 circled on the calendar as the year of competitiveness.

Again like the Cubs, the Marlins have some incredible strengths in their farm system that highlight a serious weakness. For the Cubs, offensive talent - particularly in the infield - is a cause for hope while high-level pitching is still lacking, despite an influx of solid pitching depth. For the Marlins, there is some outfield talent and an embarrassment of pitching riches with infield talent almost completely absent.

(A favorite proposal of mine - a one-for-one deal of Albert Almora for Andrew Heaney - still makes sense given the respective systems)

With that in mind, the Cubs and Marlins are very well suited to match up for a massive trade. The proposed deal:

Cubs Get
OF Giancarlo Stanton

Marlins Get
OF Albert Almora
2B/SS Arismendy Alcantara
1B Dan Vogelbach
SP Neil Ramirez

Why the Marlins Do It
The Marlins are well positioned to compete in 2016. They have a heaping mound of pitching prospects with Andrew Heaney, Justin Nicolino, Adam Conley, and Anthony DeSclafani all poised to join reigning Rookie of the Year ace Jose Fernandez and oft-overlooked 24-year-old stud Henderson Alvarez. They have the pieces to have a top of the league rotation in just a couple of years. They also have three plus young outfielders already at the MLB level in Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Jake Marisnick.

The problem lies in the infield. Miami drafted Colin Moran sixth overall last June and they hope to see him manning 3B by the end of next year. However, even if Moran makes it, the rest of the infield is a barren wasteland. There are no players who project as even average contributors in the system.

This deal would solve that in a hurry. Alcantara is a consensus top-100 prospect in MLB (BP: #83. MLB.com: #89) with a five-tool profile that includes some surprising pop and excellent speed. Although he plays 2B in the Cubs' system, he would likely be viewed as an adequate SS just about anywhere else. He should see MLB playing time by this summer, ready to grab a full-time job in 2015 as a leadoff or #2 hitter with plus defense. He plugs a major hole for the Fish.

Vogelbach is a polarizing prospect because he will never be a defensive asset. However, few 20-year-olds have a bat that scouts universally agree will play at the highest level. Vogelbach combines power, hit, and an advanced approach to project as a true asset with his 1B defense and lack of speed curtailing his overall projection. Still, he would take what has been a gaping hole for the Marlins for years (sorry LoMo) and plug it with a big bat.

Neil Ramirez gets thrown into this deal to give the Marlins another interesting piece and because these deals always seem to involve at least four prospects changing hands.

Nonetheless, the marquee acquisition is Almora. The South Florida native is a consensus top-50 prospect (BP: #25. MLB.com: #18) with enough tools plus serious baseball skills that combine for an excellent profile. Almora can hit, projects to add some pop, runs well enough, and covers CF at a high level. The Marlins do have Marcell Ozuna but it remains to be seen whether he will ever get on base enough to play. That question is rarely asked of Almora, who would provide Miami with a face-of-the-franchise type talent given his roots and projection.

The Marlins can't hope to get much more for Stanton than a top-50 prospect (Almora), a top-100 prospect (Alcantara), a top-150 prospect (Vogelbach), and a wild card (Ramirez), especially as Stanton approaches massively expensive years.

Why the Cubs Do It
The superstar. The chance to acquire a player of Stanton's caliber for an extended period of time presents itself maybe once or twice each generation. The Marlins have been the most recent team to ship out a superstar, doing so twice with the deals of Josh Beckett and Miguel Cabrera. The Red Sox and Tigers rode Beckett and Cabrera to four World Series appearances (in the case of Boston, Beckett and then the return for Beckett).

The Cubs have loudly amassed a great collection of high-profile offensive talent. While some of that talent will make it to the highest level, some will not. At some point, cashing in some of the trade chips makes sense. I generally think that the Cubs should wait to see what talent develops, but Stanton presents an exception, a generational power hitting force with on-base ability to boot.

Plugging Stanton into the Cubs' lineup provides the club with a quintet of All-Star caliber position players in addition to some remaining lottery tickets. Obviously the proposed trade above does not include Javier Baez or Kris Bryant. Both players are too close to the Majors to be flipped a la Wil Myers (an awful trade for the Royals the moment it happened) and the proposed package is plenty fair without them. If the Cubs do include Baez or Bryant, they merely fill one hole by creating another.

If the above trade goes down, the Cubs could field the following lineup by June 2014:

CF Ryan Sweeney/Junior Lake
SS Starlin Castro
2B Javier Baez
RF Giancarlo Stanton
1B Anthony Rizzo
LF Kris Bryant
3B Mike Olt
C   Welington Castillo

Wow! Sweeney is the oldest member of the group at 29 and Castillo becomes the elder statesman among regulars at 27. Olt faces the pressure cooker at 25 with Christian Villanueva on his heels and Baez and Bryant both capable of handling 3B. The incredible trio of Stanton, Rizzo, and Castro all check in at 24 while Bryant (22) and Baez (21) remain the babies. The core of Stanton, Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, and Castro could conceivably spend the better part of a decade together with the team only needing to fill in around them. Further, such a lineup would give the front office a few years to replenish the farm system while budding stars manned the everyday lineup.

Building the lineup in this way would have the hidden benefit of clarifying the organization's method and timeline for obtaining pitching talent. By putting together a lineup of inexpensive star-caliber players, the club could focus on free agency to acquire pitching talent, making runs at next winter's big arms like Homer Bailey, Justin Masterson, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and even James Shields. Signing even one of those starters along with the inevitable Jeff Samardzija extension (Shark will almost certainly stay if the team acquires Stanton) gives the club a rotation of Samardzija-FREE AGENT-Jackson-Wood-COMPETITION over the next couple of years, certainly enough to compete with a vastly improved bullpen and potentially explosive lineup. The finances make it plenty workable.

Wait, Really? How Would the Finances Work?
I'm glad you asked! For the sake of argument, let's assume that the trade is consummated as listed above and that the Cubs respond by signing two pitchers to large contracts: a 5 year, $70M extension for Samardzija (covering '15-'19 at $10M for '15 and $15M per year afterward) and a 5 year, $90M deal for Homer Bailey (covering '15-'19 at $18M per year). The 2015 commitments by position group and projected/actual salary would be as follows (my best estimates for the arbitration salaries and spots where the club will pursue free agents):

C: $3.6M. Castillo ($2.2M), Kottaras ($1.4M)
IF: $14.1M. Rizzo ($5M), Baez ($0.55M), Castro ($6M), Olt ($0.55M), Villanueva ($0.55M), Veteran free agent ($2M)
OF: $14.7M. Stanton ($11M), Sweeney ($2M), Bryant ($0.55M), Lake ($0.6M), Szczur ($0.55M)
SP: $46M. Samardzija ($10M), Bailey ($18M), Jackson ($11M), Wood ($5.5M), Arrieta ($1.5M)
RP: $16.2M. Veras ($5.5M - club option amount), Strop ($1.8M), Vizcaino ($1.6M), Russell ($2.2M), Grimm ($0.55M), Ramirez ($0.55M), Veteran free agent ($4M)

The above roster would count a total of $94.6M. Some of the estimates are tricky - particularly arbitration raises for Stanton, Wood, Castillo, and Arrieta - but $94.6M is a strong estimate for this roster in 2015.

If the Chicago Cubs can't afford a $94.6M MLB payroll in 2015, they may want to rethink the business that they're in.

As the young offensive talent starts getting expensive when the extensions for Rizzo and Castro escalate, Stanton signs a megadeal, and Baez, Bryant, Lake, and Castillo get into the arbitration system, the contract for Jackson will have expired and Bailey's and Samardzija's will be nearing their end. This is an eminently responsible trajectory for the club to take. I'm not sure that the above roster has enough pitching to scare opponents, but average pitching, solid defense, and excellent offense tends to be a recipe for strong seasons particularly considering that the first "wave" of pitching talent should be heading to Chicago around that time in the form of Pierce Johnson, C.J. Edwards, Corey Black, Ivan Pineyro, and Rob Zastryzny.

There are additional sources of expenditures that must be considered, but none of them should stop this plan. For example, the Cubs will eat $14.5M of dead money in 2014, but that number - as of now - drops to $0 in 2015. Looking at the current roster, it is difficult to imagine the team eating money to shed a contract this season. Their spending on the amateur draft and in the international free agent market are capped by the collective bargaining agreement, although the Cubs could employ an extreme spending strategy similar to the one used in 2013 in either avenue (and, hopefully, more efficiently than they did in 2013...but that's another story). The team owes Cuban signees Jorge Soler and Gerardo Concepcion only $2.6M in '15 and $3.6M in '16, the last year of Concepcion's flop of a deal. Soler provides a nice cushion; if Mike Olt can't hack it at 3B, Bryant can slide back to the infield with Soler taking his corner outfield spot. It's important to maintain a strong pipeline.

Simply put, trading for Giancarlo Stanton makes tons of sense from baseball and business perspectives. It makes sense for the Cubs and for the Marlins too, possibly putting the clubs on a postseason collision course with each other.

There is substantial risk for the Cubs in acquiring a player who has missed 85 games over the past two seasons. But the reward of acquiring a 24-year-old with a .265/.354/.535 MLB line including an 11.2% walk rate, a .270 ISO, a huge arm, and a projected 2014 line of .272/.371/.564 including 35 more home runs is undeniably worth it. If anyone is worth such a big risk, it's Stanton.

To answer the question from the title: I don't know. It just makes too much sense for the teams to make the deal.