Friday, March 13, 2015

It Seems Like the Bears Have More Spending to Do

It's no secret that Ryan Pace inherited a middling roster in transition. One of the unfortunate parting gifts from former general manager Phil Emery was a messy salary cap sheet for what is an admittedly mediocre roster. The Bears aren't in a disastrous situation like the Saints, yet they're just as far from having the cap space of the Jaguars.

Pace has ventured into the free agent marketplace to shore up a few massive holes, adding edge rusher Pernell McPhee, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and safety Antrel Rolle on a trio of eminently reasonable deals. Yet the roster still has holes and a handful of impact free agents remain unemployed. Might Pace have more shopping to do? If he wants to buy some more talent, what kind of resources does he have available to him?

I've got my own spreadsheet on which I track all of the cash outlays by player in addition to their cap hits, dead money, and potential cap savings. There aren't any genuinely significant opportunities for cap savings outside of $7.8M for Matt Forte. Needless to say, cutting Forte would be unwise.

Here is how the roster breaks down by position group in terms of cap allocations for 2015 with a reminder that only the top 51 cap numbers in a given year count against the cap:

Quarterbacks (3): $18,135,000 (Cutler, Clausen, Fales)
Running Backs (3): $9,930,845 (Forte, Carey, Perry)
Fullback (1): $510,000 (minimum placeholder)
Wide Receivers (5): $8,713,823 (Jeffery, Royal, Wilson, Mariani, Ross)
Tight Ends (3): $7,295,000 (Bennett, Miller, Annen)
Offensive Tackles (3): $9,197,828 (Bushrod, Mills, Leno)
Center (1): $1,450,000 (Garza)
Guards (4): $6,553,062 (Slauson, Long, Ola, Groy)
Edge Defenders (7): $33,156,876 (Allen, Houston, McPhee, Young, McClellin, Washington, Bass)
Defensive Linemen (5): $4,296,573 (Ratliff, Ferguson, Lane, Sutton, Dunn)
Linebackers (4): $2,790,119 (Bostic, Lattimore, Greene, Jones)
Cornerbacks (5): $9,071,591 (Jennings, Fuller, Hurst, Mitchell, Louis-Jean)
Safeties (4): $7,852,845 (Rolle, Mundy, Vereen, Walters)
Specialists (3): $4,646,327 (Gould, O'Donnell, minimum placeholder long snapper)

Those 51 contracts count for just $124,164,652 against the cap. However, the Bears owe $5,625,000 against the cap for Brandon Marshall's accelerated future bonus hits by virtue of his trade to the New York Jets, and they owe an additional $105,155 for other small signing bonuses for released players. When we add in the cap holds for the team's six draft picks, we get to a total of $135,628,707 across the 51 contracts above, dead money, and the draftees. However, simply adding the draftees' cap figures in without replacing a minimum-salary earner is inaccurate. As such, after subtracting the minimum salaries that are less than a particular draftee's cap figure, the cap space should be adjusted upward an additional $2,744,801. Given an adjusted cap for the club of $145,168,434, the Bears figure to have approximately $12,284,528 of cap space for 2015.

Given the number of holes on the team, the following free agents all make some amount of sense as Pace targets the remaining free agents:

RB C.J. Spiller
WR Michael Crabtree
OT Joe Barksdale
C   Stefen Wisniewski
EDGE Brian Orakpo
EDGE Derrick Morgan
EDGE Greg Hardy (domestic violence concerns)
DL Nick Fairley
DL B.J. Raji
LB Rolando McClain
LG Mason Foster
CB Chris Culliver
CB Rashean Mathis

Obviously the Bears will look to fill holes with draft picks as well, but to me, the most pressing needs for the club as constructed are at nose tackle, inside linebacker, offensive tackle, center, cornerback, and safety. Given the available talent and the positions of need, I'd like to see the club consider, in order, Wisniewski (Nittany bias), McClain, Culliver, Orakpo, Barksdale, and Orakpo. Orakpo may not fit the bill; I just recall early-career Orakpo as an edge force. I'd love to see the Bears take a shot on Crabtree, particularly if the former top pick is willing to settle for a one year "prove it" deal.

The basic point here is obvious: Ryan Pace has plenty of cap space in which to squeeze a couple of starting caliber players. Here's hoping he makes good choices with his spending.

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