Can the Chicago Bears Repeat Atop the NFC North in 2026? Bears Season Preview

I won't bury the lede: probably not. But 2026 can still be a great season. Here's my look at the 2026 Bears position-by-position followed by an examination of their schedule and picks for the season.

Remember: no grade inflation, so:

• A: elite
• B: above-average (this is very good!)
• C: NFL average
• D: below-average
• F: bad

Coaching

This is one of the team's biggest advantages and possibly their biggest wild card, too. Ben Johnson rules. He motivated the team last year and found a way to get the squad to come back from deficits more than any other team in the NFL in 2025. Can he do it again? I don't know. But he is a football psycho and shows all of the signs of being a top-tier coach.

Dennis Allen had an OK season in 2025, taking a unit with below-average talent and producing acceptable results fueled heavily by turnovers. There's no way that the Bears will secure as many turnovers in 2026 and the defensive roster is even less talented than it was in 2025, so Allen will need to produce incredible results to have a decent stop unit.

Richard Hightower has his work cut out for him with the amount of turnover on his Special Teams units, but Tory Taylor and Cairo Santos will be back kicking the ball so the floor is high. Kudos to Santos specifically; I long lamented his lack of power but he has done a great job kicking low successful balls in Chicago.

Grade: A-

Quarterback

Caleb Williams is on superstar trajectory. Tyson Bagent is a very exciting backup under control for two more years. Case Keenum is a QB coach masquerading as a #3 QB.

This is the best Bears QB room ever.

Grade: A

Running Back

This room isn't quite as impressive. OK, that understates things. D'Andre Swift produced a career year in 2025, and he's still just 27, so it's reasonable to expect that he'll be solid again in 2026. Kyle Monangai was a good backup in 2025 and should be the same this year assuming his knee holds up after a preseason scare. The #3 spot is probably a toss-up between Roschon Johnson and Salvon Ahmed. Ben Johnson doesn't seem to like Johnson much, so the guess here is that Ahmed.

An average starter, an average backup, and a scrub at #3.

Grade: C-

Wide Receiver

The ceiling is great; the depth is OK. I remain fully obsessed with Luther Burden and think he's ready to lead the way, even with a preseason groin injury. I'm hopeful that Rome Odunze's foot holds up well enough to make him a strong #2 behind Burden. The #3/#4 options are interesting enough, but there is risk here. Kalif Raymond brings plus speed in the #3 job, but he's played just 946 snaps across the last three seasons combined; for reference, D.J. Moore played at least that many snaps in each of the last five seasons. Raymond is well-enough qualified as a #3, but he's miscast as a #2 option if Burden or Odunze goes down.

The next trio is more interesting. Jahdae Walker played just eight snaps until Week 16, then managed 78 productive snaps against the Packers, 49ers, and Lions. Could he step into a bigger role? Hopefully yes. Rookie third-round pick Zavion Thomas brings elite speed but a limited receiver profile. And the sixth option is up for grabs: whether that job goes to Kaden Davis, Ray-Ray McCloud, Maurice Alexander, or Scotty Miller, we're likely talking about someone who doesn't dress on gamedays.

The Burden-Odunze combo is plus. The depth is interesting but, on the whole, looks below average. Which might not be a huge problem because...

Grade: B-

Tight End

...wow. What an embarrassment of riches. My complaints about Cole Kmet centered on his inability to be a true ace TE. Instead, he's a low-end #1 TE. As a #2, though? He's well overqualified. Sam Roush wasn't an elite prospect -- he has shorter arms -- but a #3 TE with a 9.93 RAS is almost too fun for Ben Johnson.

Colston Loveland looks like an elite TE and has a chance to be among the league's best this year if his shoulder behaves. The Bears figure to live in 12 personnel and even dabble in 13 personnel when all three TEs are healthy. There's not a ton to say here. If these guys are healthy, this room should be the NFL's best.

Grade: A

Offensive Tackle

This may be the hardest evaluation on the entire roster. On the right side, the Bears have recently-extended budding star Darnell Wright. Awesome!

On the left side? Who knows! Ozzy Trapilo grabbed the LT job in the second half of his rookie season and didn't look back...until his patellar exploded in January. That surely had Trapilo targeted for Injured Reserve...until he came off of the PUP list last week. If Trapilo is somehow healthy enough to return to form, LT could be strong. If not, Braxton Jones likely gets another crack at the job in a platform year, now a further year removed from surgery. Jones used to run incredibly well; if he has that agility and speed back, he can be an average NFL LT.

If not, however, we're looking at one of Theo Benedet, Kiran Amegadjie, or Jedrick Wills. Benedet should make the team as the swing tackle or the #4 if Trapilo can somehow play. Amegadjie feels like he should've been moved to G last year; the fact that he wasn't could mean that he's headed for waivers. Wills looks like his athleticism is gone after lots of injuries and a year off.

The bet here is that Wright, Trapilo, Jones, and Benedet make the team. That's a solid group.

Grade: B

Interior Offensive Line

This group is led by elite LG Joe Thuney and 2025 surprise Jonah Jackson. Thuney is a star until proven otherwise. Jackson fell off a cliff with the Rams in 2025, then rebounded for a career-best season in 2026 after a dreadful opening night. New center Garrett Bradbury represents a massive downgrade from Drew Dalman following his surprise retirement, but he should be below-average instead of terrible. Surely the hope is that Iowa draftee Logan Jones can wrest the starting job away from Bradbury before the season is over.

I'd still like to see Amegadjie kick inside as a backup to Thuney and Jackson, but it appears that won't be the case. Instead, there's probably a battle between Luke Newman and Jordan McFadden for the backup G spot with a final battle between Amegadjie, Wills, and the Newman/McFadden loser for the last roster spot.

Despite a lack of top depth, this group would've been an A with Thuney-Dalman-Jackson across the inside. But with Bradbury here now, it's a big drop.

Grade: B

Defensive Tackle

And now the party stops. Ugh. This is a terrible group. The Falcons decided that Grady Jarrett was washed following the 2024 season and it looked like they were right before Jarrett showed some flashes late in the 2025 season. Any team employing Jarrett would ideally shield him as the #3 or #4 man in a rotation during the regular season to keep him fresh for January; instead, the Bears are forced into Jarrett being the #1 option at DT at age 33. Unfortunately, his running mate, Gervon Dexter, has turned into a part-time player, offering above-average pass rushing skills with no ability to stop the run whatsoever. The starting duo does not inspire confidence unless Dexter really pops in his contract year.

The depth options are long shots, too. Neville Gallimore played out his rookie deal, then couldn't make it through camp in his first free agent year and signed consecutive minimum-salary deals in 2024 and 2025 before Ryan Poles gave him $5M guaranteed because...well, I'm not sure why. Desperation? Jordan van den Berg is an exciting athlete, but as the 213th pick in the Draft who lacked meaningful collegiate production, it's hard to be excited here. The Bears will either roll with these four, supplementing inside with Dayo Odeyingbo, or offer the fifth spot to James Lynch or Kentavius Street.

Grade: F+

Defensive End

This group is way better than the prior collection, though it still doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Montez Sweat is a roughly average #1 rush end, a hugely important piece to the puzzle. Austin Booker is an exciting prospect opposite Sweat, and the Bears desperately need him to pop in his third year. I loved Booker as a prospect, but it's hard to see him as a full-time starter on a plus defense.

The bodies behind Sweat and Booker all come with serious complications. Dayo Odeyingbo looks like a DE/DT swing lineman at his best, and an unplayable DL with no explosion at his worst. It's hard to expect a ton from him in 2026 coming back from a November 2025 Achilles tear. Shemar Turner is a similar story coming back from an October 2025 ACL tear except that Turner arrived in Chicago with a concerning foot injury history, too. He remains on the PUP list. #5 DE Daniel Hardy is a strong Special Teams contributor, but the Bears don't want him playing on defense with any regularity.

The depth in the room is so uncertain that the Bears recently signed Marcus Davenport, the king of the season-ending injury. I love the idea of Davenport, and he did star in a part-time role in New Orleans for his first five years, averaging 473 snaps per year. Since then, he has played just 487 snaps total. Davenport is an ideal #5 DE and a fine #4 DE. Having him as even the #3 DE is a terrifying prospect. Maybe Jamree Kromah can save the day?

The best teams cycle through three or four plus rushers. The Bears have to squint to see two quality DEs and likely need serious emergence from Booker to sniff having an average group.

Grade: D

Linebacker

I like most of this group. Devin Bush and T.J. Edwards playing starting roles is a good idea, and D'Marco Jackson as the #3/top reserve looks excellent after his strong 2025.

The depth options are trickier. Noah Sewell looked fine as a backup before tearing his Achilles just before New Years. Sewell remains on PUP. Fifth-rounder Keyshaun Elliott should push for a Special Teams role while serving as depth. And then there's Ruben Hyppolite. Hyppolite is a great athlete who is entirely incapable of playing football at a high level. Hyppolite turns 25 in mid-September. Yet throughout the numerous injuries suffered in the LB group last year, Hyppolite only managed 31 terrible snaps. It's hard to see him sticking on the roster.

It seems more likely that once and future Bear Jack Sanborn sticks around over Hyppolite. A group of Bush-Edwards-Jackson-Elliott-Sanborn and maybe Sewell is good enough. This group is a B if everyone is healthy, but there's injury risk with Edwards and Sewell and I think Hyppolite is a full pumpkin, knocking the grade down.

Grade: C+

Cornerback

This group was supposed to be awesome. It might still be awesome. But the questions have gotten loud.

Jaylon Johnson is a #1 CB. In an ideal world, the #2 CB job would be a thrilling battle between Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier, and even Malik Muhammad. Instead, Frazier flamed out of pro football, Smith's patellar exploded last fall, and now the battle is between Stevenson and Muhammad...maybe. Muhammad might be needed in the slot where Kyler Gordon should lead the way but instead remains out indefinitely. Josh Blackwell and Jaylon Jones could also feature in the slot, especially if Muhammad is needed outside. Blackwell and Jones are both core Special Teamers.

I could see the Bears carrying only five LBs to leave space for seven CBs if they want to keep all of Johnson, Stevenson, Muhammad, Gordon, Smith, Blackwell, and Jones. Injuries will likely dictate the specific path here. The lack of inspiring death and big problems with Gordon has this group looking thin.

Grade: D+

Safety

I remain baffled by Poles' approach here. The safety market was flooded, yet Poles went to the top of free agency for Coby Bryant and used a first-round pick on Oregon's Dillon Thieneman. Thieneman should be a core player for many years. The Bears certainly hoped that Bryant would be, too, but a devastating camp injury will likely cost him all of 2026. This makes Cam Lewis -- formerly slated for the competition in the slot -- a necessary starter.

Elijah Hicks and street free agent Xavier Woods offer the depth here. It's even possible that Woods goes from the street to the starting lineup if Lewis is needed elsewhere. Regardless, there is a lot of uncertainty here.

The grade would obviously be much higher -- maybe B- -- if Bryant was healthy. But he's not.

Grade: D

Specialists

I mentioned Taylor and Santos above. They're good. Beau Gardner is a long snapper. I can't tell if there's any difference in quality among long snappers.

Raymond and Thomas both offer elite speed in the return group, so there's a chance for big plays to be found there.

Grade: B-

Management

Poles had a weird offseason. As mentioned above, Poles poured assets into the safety room without getting the big upgrade he wanted, but that's not his fault as Bryant's injury wasn't foreseeable. However, Poles ignoring the defensive line severely limits the team's ceiling. While most of the best teams load up on talent at both DE and DT, Poles has opted for scrubs in the DL rotation. Not good!

Even more confusing, Poles used a second-round pick on a backup C (Jones), a third-rounder on a backup TE (Roush), and another third-rounder on a backup WR/returner (Thomas). All of that depth on offense means that those picks weren't used on defensive starters. Huh?

I'm sure that Poles feels pressure -- conscious or not -- from Johnson to build an elite offense. And that's great. The Bears might have one in 2026. Unfortunately, Poles needs to build a championship roster and he hasn't given Dennis Allen nearly enough to work with on that side of the ball. I remain critical of this approach...but there's a sliver of me that thinks building such a fantastic offense could work, akin to the approach that Cincinnati used in 2021, empowering an elite passing attack to carry a moribund defense to a close Super Bowl loss. Here's hoping for the 2021 Bengals and not the 2025 Bengals team that was kneecapped by an inept defense.

Grade: C-

Ownership

George McCaskey is trying to take a charter franchise and move it from the beautiful Chicago lakefront to either (i) a generic development in the northwest suburbs, or (ii) a brownfield site in Hammond. Is this some kind of joke?

McCaskey even had the gall to suggest that Bear Weather didn't help the Bears against the Rams in last season's Divisional playoffs despite the fact that league MVP Matthew Stafford produced a stinkbomb with a 31.5 QBR, his second-lowest output of the year. Anybody who watched the game saw Stafford's obvious limitations in the conditions, none of which were present when he faced a dramatically better Seahawks defense a week later and produced 374 yards and three touchdowns. Come on, George.

Grade: F

Schedule

The 2026 schedule is a far cry from the 2025 schedule. Needless to say, the sledding will be considerably tougher this year as the slate features the elite NFC North and brutal road trips to Seattle and Buffalo. Yikes!

It's a fools errand to pick specific games, but I'll do it anyway because it's fun.

1. Sun Sep 13 @ Carolina: WIN
2. Sun Sep 20 vs Minnesota: WIN
3. Mon Sep 28 vs Philadelphia: loss
4. Sun Oct 4 vs New York Jets: WIN
5. Sun Oct 11 @ Green Bay: loss
6. Sun Oct 18 @ Atlanta: WIN
7. Thu Oct 22 vs New England: WIN
8. Mon Nov 2 @ Seattle: loss
9. Sun Nov 8 vs Tampa Bay: loss
10. BYE
11. Sun Nov 22 vs New Orleans: WIN
12. Thu Nov 26 @ Detroit: loss
13. Sun Dec 6 vs Jacksonville: WIN
14. Sun Dec 13 @ Miami: WIN
15. Sat Dec 19 @ Buffalo: loss
16. Fri Dec 25 vs Green Bay: loss
17. Sun Jan 3 vs Detroit: loss
18. Sun Jan 10 @ Minnesota: loss

That's an eminently disappointing 8-9 season, made considerably worse by the idea of the Bears being 5-2 and then 8-5 in mid-December. How do we get there? Simple: the Bears seriously lack depth on defense and face four extremely tough, talented opponents to end the season. If Montez Sweat, Jaylon Johnson, or Devin Bush gets hurt, the stop unit is in deep trouble. If Dillon Thieneman gets hurt or struggles as a rookie, it's a five-alarm fire.

In the end, I could see the Bears fielding one of the best offenses in team history. That would be tremendously exciting! But the defense looks so bad that it might not matter. Here's hoping for some serious magic from Dennis Allen.

Previewing Season One for Matt Campbell at Penn State

Boy, this feels weird. I watched a long interview that Josh Pate had with James Franklin recently. It was bizarre seeing Franklin wearing Virginia Tech maroon and orange and discussing his time at Penn State in the past tense. It simply wasn't that long ago that #3 Penn State held the lead over #6 Oregon in overtime with the Ducks facing a fourth down to potentially end the game. We all know what happened next: Oregon scored, then scored again, then Drew Allar threw a dart at Dillon Thienemann, then Penn State tried to sleepwalk through a game against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, then Allar's ankle exploded at the end of a brutal home loss to Northwestern that spelled the end of Franklin's tenure.

Since then, it has truly been a rollercoaster. On the negative side, the 2026 and 2027 recruiting classes vanished, AD Pat Kraft bungled the search for Franklin's successor, and numerous elite-level recruits exited via the Transfer Portal, gutting the roster. On the plus side, Iowa State's Matt Campbell fell into Kraft's lap as the new head coach, Franklin's insatiable appetite to continue coaching saved the football program something like $40M when he settled his buyout to take the VT job, Campbell brought two dozen experienced starters with him from Ames, and Campbell miraculously nabbed a pair of 4* DEs in the 2026 recruiting class, securing the pledge of Elijah Reeder and keeping Jackson Ford in the fold.

Campbell's 2027 class looks underwhelming with only seven 4* verbals to date, but it's hard to judge him too harshly in that respect. He needs to coach some games in State College while recruiting talent simultaneously to judge his recruiting prowess, meaning that the Class of 2028 will be the primary evaulation tool.

Thankfully, the 2026 season happens first. And it's going to be a wild ride. Here's a look at the roster followed by a season prediction.

OFFENSE

Campbell brought offensive coordintor Taylor Mouser with him from Iowa State. Mouser's story is hilarious in much the same way that Eric Murphy's story is hilarious in Entourage. Mouser was working at a Little Ceasar's in Arizona when Campbell offered him a graduate assistant gig at Toledo back in 2015, and Mouser has been attached to Campbell ever since. The Iowa State tight end room speaks highly of Mouser's abilities as a coach, and he'll have the chance to show that he is a talent on the rise with the increased talent level awaiting him in State College.

Quarterbacks

Full disclosure: I wish that Ethan Grunkemeyer was still at Penn State. Instead, longtime Iowa State QB Rocco Becht will start for the Nittany Lions. When he starts against Marshall, it'll be his 40th collegiate start. Becht has a limited ceiling, but as Penn State fans know, ceiling isn't everything: teams led by Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford were more productive than teams led by Christian Hackenberg and Drew Allar despite their 5* pedigrees. There is a ton of pressure on Becht to produce, but even more pressure on him to stay healthy. His backups are Division III transfer SR Connor Barry and RS FR Alex Manske, himself an ISU transfer returning from injury for fall camp. If Becht goes down, the season likely goes down with him.

I expect that Penn State's 2027 starter isn't currently on the roster. Ugh. Welcome to the new world of college football.

Running Backs

This room looks...fine. ISU transfer Carson Hansen reminds me of Akeel Lynch, a solid but unspectacular back. Ohio State transfer James Peoples may be a tick more explosive, but he's hardly a top back. SO Quinton Martin Jr. is the home run threat, so the hope is that the staff finds touches for him. Once again, the Portal will factor into the 2027 RB room.

Wide Receivers

This group is tougher to read. Experienced ISU transfers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen should lead the way, but it's SO Koby Howard that offers the big-play ability. The WR room has been underwhelming for many years now. Expect that to continue...unless Campbell's black magic with WRs came with him to State College. His work with prior collegiate receivers is very exciting.

Tight Ends

This room looks awfully similar to what it has been in recent years. Even with Luke Reynolds following Franklin to Blacksburg, ISU transfers Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle are hulking athletes and holdover Andrew Rappleyea offers a third big-time athlete in the group. Expect a lot of 12 and even some 13 personnel. All three should hear their names called in the next two NFL Drafts.

Offensive Line

This isn't the best offensive line that Penn State has had in recent years, but this should be a strong group with the chance to be among the best groups in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions return a pair of starters on the right side with Anthony Donkoh at RT and Cooper Cousins at RG. RS FR Malachi Goodman grabbed the LT job early and didn't let it go. He follows in a long line of top LT prospects in State College. The Portal filled the spots next to him with RS JR Trevor Buhr coming from ISU an C Brock Riker arriving from Texas State. The first unit should be good and has a chance to be very good.

Ah, but the depth. The depth is poor. The second-team line -- going left-to-right, that's Owen Aliciene, Will Tompkins, Dom Rulli, Chimdy Onoh, and Garrett Sexton -- has almost no experinece whatsoever and underwhelming recruiting profiles compared to prior versions of the Nittany OL.

The Penn State offense can probably absord one injury. Two or more will be devastating.

Defensive Line

Yikes. My team-building philosophy isn't complicated: if you dominate up front, you'll probably win. Recent top-level PSU teams have been driven by elite offensive and defensive lines. You can't discuss recent squads without discussing the likes of Micah Parsons, Abdul Carter, and Dani Dennis-Sutton. There's only one player on the entire team with that kind of ceiling: RS SO DE Max Granville, who is returning from a summer 2025 injury that wiped out his last year. He'll line up behind SO Yvan Kemajou and RS SO Ike Ezeogu. Is a three-man rotation enough at DE? Simply put, no. So, Penn State needs (i) tremendous health, and (ii) the emergence of an unexpected player or two at DE.

The picture is even darker at DT. Campbell hammered the Portal such that his top three DTs are transfers: RS SR Keanu Williams, RS SR Siale Taupaki, and RS SO Armstrong Nnodim. None of them have huge ceilings. Penn State needs something unexpected here, but it's more likely that Ford, Liam Andrews, or Lavar Arrington II pops at DE.

Linebackers

Unlike on the DL, there is both ceiling and depth here led by stalwart Tony Rojas and ISU transfer Kooper Ebel. They'll be backed up by Caleb Bacon and Cael Brezina. If Alex Tatsch successfully returns from injury, one or more LB may need to push for reps at DE to get on the field.

Secondary

There are enough bodies here to feel really good about this group. Outside, Audavion Collins and Daryus Dixon lead the way with Josh Johnson and Jahmir Joseph behind them. In the slot, Zion Tracy should be a plus full-time player. The safety depth isn't quite as developed, but Jeremiah Cooper is back from injury, Marcus Neal looks like a star in the making, and Jamison Patton and Vaboue Toure offer experienced depth.

Specialists

Ryan Barker is back to handle the kicking after a strong 2025. Transfer Nathan Tiyce should handle the punting. Tiyce will have a hard time matching up with the elite punters before him, but I don't know enough about him to know whether he has the leg to do so.

Overall Thoughts

It's very hard to get a good feel for this team. By my count, Penn State lost 45 players via the Transfer Portal while adding 38. That's a lot of turnover. The number of new faces should make Campbell putting his stamp on the roster even tougher, though it helps that he brought so many of those faces with him.

In my view, this team has a limited ceiling in large part because the OL and DL look good, not elite, and seriously lack depth. There don't appear to be any gamebreakers in the WR or RB rooms, so Penn State's path to success will be fueled by playing dependable complementary football instead of playmaking football. That's a risky proposition against top opponents. Thankfully...

Schedule

My. God. This isn't supposed to be able to happen in the Big Ten in 2026. No Ohio State. No Oregon. No Indiana. That's three of the top-five teams in Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings heading into the season. The only other Big Ten team to avoid the conference's big three is Wisconsin, but the Badgers open their season against #3 Notre Dame. Penn State's non-conference schedule is an abomination and the conference schedule is about as easy as it can get in 2026.

Unfortunately, I don't think that Campbell and his roster will be ready to attack this roster as effectively as, say, the 2019 or 2024 Penn State teams would have. And, unfortunately, it's a one-year-only blip: Penn State travels to Oregon and Indiana in 2027 and hosts all three of Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State in 2028. Those teams could be considerably better than the 2026 squad, but they face much tougher roads to the postseason by virtue of their brutal schedules.

Back to 2026. I looked at advance Vegas odds once a few weeks ago, but I don't remember what they said. So, here's a walk through the schedule with my take on Nittany's win expectancy across the contests:

• Sep 5 vs Marshall: 99%
• This should be a cakewalk with an amped-up and focused PSU team.
• Sep 12 @ Temple: 98%
• Incredible that this is a true road game. Should still be a clear victory.
• Sep 19 vs Buffalo: 99%
• Avoiding a noon kick trap game is the only test here.
• Sep 26 vs Wisconsin: 80%
• Luke Fickell must be desperate in Madison. His defense looks OK but the offense looks awful. This has 20-6 slugfest written all over it. I expect that Iowa @ Michigan gets the Big Noon slot while Oregon @ USC gets a big evening time slot, so this game could be the premium Big Ten game in the 3:30pm slot.
• Oct 2 @ Northwestern: 65%
• A Friday road trip to another time zone against a team opening their new fancy stadium? Yikes! I expect that Northwestern will pull out all of the stops for this one. This presents a big test for Campbell...
• Oct 10 vs USC: 60%
• ...but not as big of a test as this one! This should be the Whiteout. Much like the Oregon Whiteout last year, Penn State gets a West Coast team traveling 2,000 miles for a college football game. It should be a massive advantage. And USC hasn't been nearly as good as Oregon in recent years. Alas, Penn State doesn't look nearly as good as recent Penn State teams either. It's entirely possible that USC is favored by the time this game rolls around. The Trojans will have played consecutive home games against Oregon and Washington before this contest, so they could be beat up.
• Oct 17 @ Michigan: 5%
• Until proven otherwise, Penn State will lose at the Big House. Deeper analysis suggests that this should be a close game. But Paterno struggled in Ann Arbor and Franklin never won a trip there (I don't count the 2020 exhibitions), getting blown out every time. Campbell has to do it.
• Oct 31 vs Purdue: 95%
• Purdue is in a bad spot at the bottom of the Big Ten. Coming off of a bye, Penn State should be able to blow out the Boilermakers.
• Nov 7 @ Washington: 35%
• Demond Williams is very good and should be a problem for many opponents this year, especially teams traveling 2,000 miles to play the Huskies. I expect this to be a close game that has significant bearing on where Penn State plays in January, if at all.
• Nov 14 vs Minnesota: 80%
• I feel good about this one. If this game was on the road? Yikes. But at home, I feel good.
• Nov 21 vs Rutgers: 90%
• Greg Schiano has made Rutgers into a tough out again. Also, Penn State is 33-2 all-time against the Scarlet Knights, winning 18 straight contests.
• Nov 28 @ Maryland: 85%
• Maryland looks OK from a talent perspective, but Penn State should be rolling here whereas Maryland will return home from a trip to the Coliseum that probably won't be very fun.

Adding up those percentages yields 8.91 wins, so let's call that 9-3. Frankly, 9-3 would be a disappointing season against this schedule. If Campbell gets this team to 10 wins, they probably have a 30% chance of making the CFP; the schedule is poor but the Committee tends to like teams with double-digit wins.

If things go well, it'll be because...

1. Becht stays healthy all year. (or, you know, Barry is the 2026 Trindad Chambliss)
2. The beefy Penn State DL that struggles to generate pass rush devours opposing rushing attacks, keeping Penn State in favorable spots against run-heavy teams like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Purdue.
3. One or more of Granville, Ford, and Arrington forces his way into a big role thanks to prodigious pass rush production.
4. Mouser leans into the offensive skill position players on his roster by either (i) featuring the TEs heavily, or (ii) getting a breakout performance from Howard or one of the younger WRs.

If things go poorly, it'll be because...

1. Becht gets hurt. Duh.
2. The OL proves to be merely solid instead of plus turning the easier-looking games into slogs.
3. Nobody emerges at WR forcing the offense through the RBs and TEs exclusively; Penn State has already tried this unsuccessfully in recent years.
4. The team stumbles early against Wisconsin or Northwestern, causing things to snowball the wrong way. Obviously a stumble against an earlier opponent would be disastrous, not just poor.

I'm in a weird spot as a fan. I'm low on this Penn State team, feeling like they're probably an 8-4 squad. That's either because they have underwhelming talent at key spots -- namely DT, DE, and WR -- or because there's a ton of unknowns in light of the coaching changes and Portal activity. Obviously I'm hoping for option #2. The schedule certainly sets up to give this team a chance for a special regular season.

In the end, here's what I see:

• Gloomy: 6-6 (it's a real slog)
• Rosy: 11-1 (avoid the traps, split the trips to Ann Arbor and Seattle, run the table at home)
• Expectation: 9-3 (losses to USC, Michigan, and Washington)
• Going 9-3 against this schedule likely renders PSU as the 8th best team in the Big Ten behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Washington, Michigan, USC, and Iowa, landing in the same tier as Nebraska and Illinois. Bleh.

An 11-1 Penn State team likely hosts a first round CFP game. A 9-3 team has a 0% chance of making the CFP, instead settling for a January trip to Florida.

Here's hoping for some more wins in 2026 than in 2025!

Well, Jed Hoyer Certainly Had a Trade Deadline

Perhaps more than any other team in MLB, the 2026 Chicago Cubs approached the Trade Deadline last Monday with incredible clarity. The position players are elite, producing three more fWAR than the next closest group, the dreaded Dodgers. But the pitching? Yikes! Between injuries -- so, so many injuries -- and some ineffectiveness, Cubs pitchers produced a bottom-five fWAR through July.

And man, those injuries. It has been insane. The Cubs' Injured List pitching staff is undeniably a playoff-caliber collection of talent. For reference, a healthy starter should have thrown 120-130 innings thus far (Shota Imanaga is at 132.2 IP and Colin Rea is at 117.2 IP despite a few relief appearances) whereas a healthy reliever should be at roughly 50 innings (Jacob Webb is at 50.2 IP). Here's the brutal injury story:

Starters

1. Justin Steele (0 IP this year)
2. Cade Horton (7.1 IP this year)
3. Ben Brown (pitched like an ace...but only for 68.0 IP)
4. Matthew Boyd (72.2 IP this year)
5. Edward Caberera (72.1 IP this year)

Relivers

1. Daniel Palencia (16.2 IP this year)
2. Hunter Harvey (4.0 IP this year)
3. Riley Martin (8.1 IP this year)
4. Phil Maton (27.2 IP this year...and they've been terrible)
5. Hoby Milner (35.2 IP this year)
6. Porter Hodge (0 IP this year)

It's tough. Nevertheless, with the team on track to reach the Postseason but severely lacking in playoff-caliber pitching (apologies to David Peterson, who has been plenty solid!), Jed Hoyer had a clear mission: bring in the arms. And bring in the arms he did, acquiring multiple playoff-caliber starters and an ascending reliever to complement the current roster. To be clear, the 2026 Cubs will benefit in a huge way.

So why in the world am I grumpy about this?

Let's say your spouse sends you to the grocery store and says "I need a gallon of organic whole milk." If you go to a corner store, its entirely plausible that there will be one or even zero options, forcing you to pay whatever price is demanded. Don't do that! Thankfully, if you have a Meijer or other similar large retailer available, you can head to that store and find yourself bombarded with quality options. I like to imagine Jed Hoyer holding a crisp $20 bill in his pocket and looking at the milk refrigerator. There are so many options. Option A costs $7, Option B costs $8, Option C costs $6, Option D costs $18, Option E costs $19, and Option F costs $3. Maybe Option D came from the rolling hills of Northern England, Option E offered small-batch milk, and Option F was stomped on a few times so the carton was dented. I don't know. In any event, Jed surveyed the field and must have said, "welp, I can only see Options D and E working for my family." Never mind that Options A, B, and C were all available, absolutely did the job, the store was willing to sell them, and they cost dramatically less. But let's start with Option F.

Hoyer made his best trade in years on Sunday, acquiring playoff starter Kevin Gausman from Toronto for Ty Southisene and Brett Bateman. Gausman arrived alongside his hefty salary -- $23M in 2026 -- so it seems that Hoyer put the Ricketts family money to good use in absorbing this contract. Admittedly, Gausman is 35 and showing some modest signs of slipping from his peak, namely a slight uptick in HR/9 and a slight drop in his fastball velocity from about 94.5 mph down to 93.9 mph. These will be problems for Gausman's agent selling his client on the open market this winter, but 2026 Gausman is largely unaffected, pitching to a tasty 3.50 FIP and amassing 2.6 WAR across 127.1 IP in his age-35 season. He's a playoff starter with a plus fastball and a devastating splitter. With all due respect to Southisene and Bateman, they are horribly flawed prospects with 20-30 grade power such that even their plus speed will likely limit them to bench roles if they mature as hoped. I suspect that Toronto's management required GM Ross Atkins to unload Gausman's money, forcing his hand. Hoyer pounced.

Grade: A

Hoyer next made the same kind of deal, shipping homeless IF Jonathon Long and RHP Jace Beck to Miami for former top-10 pick LHP Braxton Garrett. This transaction is a bit more complicated than the one above, but it follows the same basic approach: trade a flawed prospect who projects as a backup-only player for someone at a desperately-needed spot now. Garrett's 2026 has been a mess coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2024 that also knocked him out for 2025. Despite a rocky climb through the Marlins' system, Garrett was a good Major League pitcher in 2022-23, and it's not crazy to think that he could be so again, either now or in his next two arbitration years. This isn't a marquee acquisition, but it's a great trade.

Grade: A-

And then Jed kept dealing. On Monday afternoon, shortly after acquiring Garrett, Hoyer agreed to acquire RHP Ryan Zeferjahn from the Angels. In a vacuum, acquiring Zeferjahn is good. He's a reliever and the Cubs desperately need more of those. And Zeferjahn does throw really hard with a sweeper that breaks a ton! He even strikes out a ton of batters, checking in at nearly 13 per nine innings this year! Unfortunately, Zeferjahn has a few warts that bear mentioning:

1. He has a subpar pedigree. He was drafted at #107 in 2019 and signed below slot, then peaked at #44 on Boston's prospect list in 2021.
2. Walks. My God. In Zeferjahn's last minor league season (2023), he walked 7.83 per nine. He slowly cut that number, but he still has a dreadful 5.40 BB/9 rate this year.
3. Recent value. Zeferjahn was terrible in 2025, posting -0.6 WAR for the Angels, placing 144th among 147 qualified relievers last year. He surely would've cost peanuts in the offseason.
4. Role. On an Angels team with no dedicated closer (six different Angels have combined for 14 total saves this year), Zeferjahn pitched in the middle innings.

Which brings us to the problem here: the cost. Zeferjahn was Option D among the milks above. He cost $18 and it makes no sense that he did. To get him, Hoyer parted with Moises Ballesteros. Ballesteros has had an underwhelming year, no doubt. He found himself hitting in the cleanup spot in Chicago and he was playing in Iowa by early July. Ballesteros struggled to hit his way on base and to get his plus power to show up in Major League games. But he did all of this in his age-22 season! And just three months ago, he was the club's #1 prospect, ranking #43 in MLB, a few spots ahead of Toronto SS Arjun Nimmala (#49). Had Ballesteros struggled a year at Triple-A, this deal could've made some amount of sense. But he didn't. Ballesteros is $18 of value traded for $5 of value, and that makes absolutely no sense. To make matters worse, Nimmala -- in the midst of an average season at Double-A -- was traded alongside some filler to the Angels for controllable playoff starter Jose Soriano a few hours earlier, someone who was surely a top Cubs target. And it's even worse because the Cubs added sweetener to the deal in the form of Mason McGwire. McGwire is no top prospect; instead, he's Zeferjahn in three years if everything goes right. He's a $1 or $2 throw-in...but why are the Cubs sending the throw-in here? It makes no sense. The only thing that prevents an F grade here is the fact that Zeferjahn is a pitcher and Ballesteros is not.

Grade: D-

And then Jed went even bigger. Ugh. Clay Holmes is a good MLB pitcher. After a strong run of relief pitching for the Yankees from 2021-24, Holmes moved to Queens and the starting rotation and delivered a nice season for the Mets in 2025. But to be clear, "nice" doesn't mean "great" here. Holmes has never had a season of even 2.0 WAR, he's rehabbing a broken leg at the time of this trade, and he's an impending free agent. Even if Holmes comes back this weekend (as hoped) and pitches well for the Cubs, it's impossible for him to produce a ton of value, regardless of role. Tyrone Taylor came alongside Holmes and offers a plus short-side platoon bat in the corner OF. That's nice to have, especially with Ian Happ cratering, but as an impending free agent himself, Taylor surely didn't cost that much. Which brings us to the cost: the Cubs' new #1 prospect and #47 overall SS Jefferson Rojas. A prospect of Rojas's caliber brings back one of two things in a trade: a star or a good controllable piece. Somehow, inexplicably, Rojas brought back neither. It sure seems like Mets POBO David Stearns set a sky-high price and Hoyer blinked.

It is impossible to overstate just how disastrous this trade was. In terms of prospect value, the Cubs could have added Rojas and Ballesteros together to get in the conversation for Tarik Skubal, another impending free agent but also a two-time defending Cy Young winner, not a nice #4 starter or swingman like Holmes. And consider this: at the time of the 2021 trade that sent Javier Baez to New York, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranked #201 overall on Fangraphs and somewhere well outside of the top-100 on MLB.com, behind other Cubs non-elite prospects like Brennen Davis, Cristian Hernandez, James Triantos, Caleb Kilian, and Jordan Wicks. PCA was seen as having an elite glove and a terribly troubling offensive profile that risked scuttling the whole operation. The only concern about Rojas is his ultimate ceiling. Will he get to enough power and show enough range to be an All-Star, or will his slight limitations render him only an average starter on the dirt? Regardless of the answer, he's an immensely valuable prospect with a dramatically higher floor than most players traded at the deadline, he's a consensus top-100 prospect, and most folks see him among the top 50 prospects in baseball.

Even with an important arm coming back in the form of Holmes, this is such a drastic overpay that it's impossible not to fail.

A final note: I've seen lots of commentary about how Rojas won't have a role in Chicago because of the significant contracts held by Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner. To which I say this: hogwash. Rojas could cook for all of 2027 and look to make the Majors in 2028, at which point Swanson will be 34 with only two years left on his deal, Hoerner will admittedly be 31 with five years left on his disastrous extension, and Bregman will be 34 with three years left on his deal. It's entirely foreseeable that Swanson or Bregman (or *gasp* both) will have slowed down considerably by 2028, requiring a new SS to carry the mantle or to spell them a few times a week at the very least. And Pedro Ramirez had no path to the roster this year, yet he already has 117 PAs on his way to something in the neighborhood of 250 PAs. Playing time opens up for good players.

When the 2015 Cubs had Rizzo-Baez-Russell-Bryant across the infield, they didn't tell Ben Zobrist to pound sand because they were all set; they added another awesome player to the mix and it made all the difference en route to a championship. Apologies to Tommy La Stella.

The farm system is now completely barren on the dirt, particularly on the left side. Ramirez is a 2B-only glove. James Triantos is a fringe MLB player and 2B-only with the glove, too. After them, Josiah Hartshorn is the only other top-20 organizational prospect who projects to play on the infield, and even Hartshorn is already limited to 1B in A-ball.

The Cubs had a bevy of outfielders from which to deal, led especially by Kane Kepley and Kevin Alcantara. Surely some sellers would have been interested in those two, perhaps even the Tigers, who also shipped out rental Casey Mize for a relatively middling package headlined by San Diego LHP Kash Mayfield. That kind of price would've been appropriate for a rental.

Rojas for Holmes and Taylor? Not so much.

Grade: F

Hoyer's trade history during his time atop the Cubs' organization was already poor before this deadline. The Gausman deal suggested that he was on a different path and the Garrett deal was a shrewd follow-up. But then it all fell to pieces and culminated in his new worst move as POBO. Brutal.