2016 MLB Picks

As the end of March nears, Opening Day is just one week away! There will certainly be celebrations throughout the land as first pitches around the country announce the official return of summer.

As we look forward that single week, I'd like to look forward seven months instead to the end of October and envision what the standings and playoff tree will look like at the end of the season. It's time for my sure-to-be-wildly-wrong 2016 MLB picks.

American League Central
Cleveland (93-69)
Detroit (86-76)
Kansas City (84-78)
Chicago White Sox (82-80)
Minnesota (78-84)

The AL Central could be won by any of the division's five teams. The Twins have a middling rotation and some holes in the lineup, but the club's ceiling is extremely high if everything breaks right as full seasons from Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano could be a real boost while wild card pitchers like Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco are projected for subpar results despite having plenty of success under their belts. The Twins are on their way, but it might take another year.

The White Sox have addressed many of their largest holes and their starting rotation looks excellent, especially with Carson Fulmer inevitably arrives during the season's first half to join Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon. Wow. So why won't they win? Simple: they can't play defense and there's no depth. One of those items will scuttle their postseason dreams.

The Royals just keep winning, so it feels silly to project them so close to .500. I just hate their starting rotation. It's not any good.

The Tigers filled their holes admirably this winter, but their aged offense and dearth of depth should give them trouble this year. They'll be in the hunt, however, so good on Mike Ilitch for keeping the team in the mix. Either Daniel Norris or Michael Fulmer will push them into the Wild Card Game.

That brings us to Cleveland. I loved them last year and they underperformed as much as any team has in years. With Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, their top-three is as good as it gets. Trevor Bauer still comes with plenty of ceiling and their elite bullpen will finally win them bundles of games. Don't be surprised if they make a big move for an outfielder to bridge the gap from their current roster to the dynamic duo of Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, both of whom need a bit more seasoning. But that's tinkering: the rotation, bullpen, and Kipnis-Lindor combination up the middle will have the Indians winning the Central this year.

American League East
Boston (88-74)
Toronto (86-76)
New York Yankees (78-84)
Tampa Bay (77-85)
Baltimore (70-92)

It's difficult for me to hate an offseason more than the one the Orioles had. They caught a break when Matt Wieters accepted his qualifying offer, something that should pay dividends for Baltimore. But paying top dollar to keep flash-in-the-pan slugger Chris Davis while allowing Wei-Yin Chen to walk boggles my mind. Their outfield looks poor as Adam Jones ages and their starting rotation looks really, really bad. They're going to struggle again in the East.

While the Orioles will struggle in their rotation, the Rays have a true ace in Chris Archer followed by a number of strong complementary arms. Unfortunately, they just can't hit. They won't score enough to win.

The Yankees are going to have a mind-blowing bullpen with Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman ending plenty of games after six innings. Unfortunately for them, the New York position players leave a lot to be desired even before their contracts are considered. It's a middling group that could yield anywhere from 72 to 92 wins, but I think that (1) distractions surrounding Chapman and (2) injuries to the old guard will keep the Yanks closer to their floor.

After finally breaking out with a wildly talented core group, the Jays are going to fall back some due to a rotation that doesn't stack up. The back of their bullpen should hold up and they're going to score a lot, but I don't like the rotation enough.

This gets us to the BoSox. I'm not under the illusion that Boston will excel in 2016, but it's difficult to add David Price and Craig Kimbrel to a roster without making it significantly better. There's plenty of depth in the upper minors to buoy the team throughout the season and their offense should score a lot of runs. This team still comes with a lot more risk that you'd regularly expect from such an expensive roster, but the ceiling is high and the floor has come up considerably. I like their chances to reach October.

American League West
Houston (95-67)
Anaheim (84-78)
Seattle (83-79)
Texas (80-82)
Oakland (68-94)

Words that I plan to eat in six months: I hate the roster that Billy Beane has built in Oakland. The starting rotation looks awful after Sonny Gray, and the only lineup regular projected for an on-base percentage above .325 is the awful Yonder Alonso. This is a bad team headed for a July fire sale. Get your Gray trade proposals ready!

In contrast to Oakland, I actually like the roster built by Texas GM Jon Daniels. Yet I think that the lack of starting pitching or bullpen depth will prevent the club from returning to the playoffs. There's nothing particularly wrong with Texas; it's just that some teams have to lose more than we might expect on the surface. I'm picking the Rangers. Their minor league system should have them back in contention by 2017, however.

The Mariners are the weirdest collection of talent with plenty of average-ish looking regulars who could be hugely disappointing (examples: Seth Smith, Ketel Marte, Leonys Martin, Hisashi Iwakuma) and a few stars coming off of bizarre 2015 seasons as Felix Hernandez collapsed in the second half after Robinson Cano did so in the first half. I could see the M's break the 90-win barrier but I could just as easily see them meander toward a 78-win year. Gross. The future looks bleak, though, as their system refuses to produce fruit.

How far can a few stars carry an otherwise subpar team? Mike Trout, Garrett Richards, Kole Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons, and perhaps Andrew Heaney are about to tell us. This is a club that figures to start Jered Weaver, Carlos Perez, Johnny Giavotella, C.J. Cron, and Daniel Nava. Yunel Escobar and/or Tyler Skaggs will need huge years to push them into the playoffs.

Strangely, I'm not impressed by the Houston rotation - lack of velocity can do that sometimes - but the roster as a whole is beautiful. You want effective starting pitching? Dallas Keuchel, Colin McHugh, Lance McCullers, and Mike Fiers are here. You want a lock-down back-of-the-bullpen duo? Look no further than Ken Giles and Luke Gregerson. Like teams that are strong up the middle? Jason Castro, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Carlos Gomez are as good as it gets. Want power in the corners? Despite their other flaws (namely lacking on-base skills), Jon Singleton, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, and George Springer fit the bill. This doesn't feel like a traditional powerhouse given the flaws of some of the players, but I believe in this team.

National League Central
Chicago Cubs (97-65)
St. Louis (90-72)
Pittsburgh (87-75)
Cincinnati (74-88)
Milwaukee (63-99)

Some teams lose because they aren't quite good enough. Other teams lose because players get injured or prospects falter. The 2016 Brewers? They're going to lose because they're trying to lose. It's going to be an ugly summer in Milwaukee. Their best hope is that guys like Matt Garza and Jonathan Lucroy recover enough trade value to return a real package at the deadline while the front office hits on their top picks.

The Reds won't be as bad as their record indicates; they're just stuck in a loaded division. Their rotation should be about average while their position players should be as well...at least until the front office unloads a few more of them this summer, causing their record to falter. This franchise will be relevant again soon.

The Pirates are going to be good. Seriously good. Their rotation looks wobbly after Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano, but their bullpen is excellent with a few wild cards who could make it even better, their outfield defense remains superb, and their infield has some upside possibilities. Will that be enough in 2016 in the haves and have-nots National League? It's going to be close.

The Cardinals always have pitching and 2016 will be no different. It's difficult to envision an elite ceiling with their roster, but their floor is extremely high. They'll be in the race all year, even before accounting for the fact that the Cardinals always win. Their attempts to nab Jason Heyward and David Price in free agency do indicate that their front office figured that the team needed a boost. Perhaps there's a crack in the armor?

There's no pretending that I'm not biased toward the Cubs, but even taking off my fan cap in favor of my analyst cap yields the same result: this team is undeniably enticing, loaded with talent at every position with contingency plans to spare. Don't love the Miguel Montero-David Ross catching duo? One of baseball's top catching prospects, Willson Contreras, awaits at Triple-A. Don't think Jason Heyward is a centerfielder? Don't worry, Dexter Fowler is back to handle the position. Don't love the infield of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist? Well, first off, you're crazy. Secondly, Javier Baez and Tommy La Stella are there to soften any injury blows. And even if you don't believe in Jake Arrieta or you worry about injuries after his 2015 workload, a rotation of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel, and Adam Warren with Travis Wood as the sixth man stacks up well among Major League rotations. This team is loaded. Let's see if they can avoid the Cubness that has doomed previous rosters. The floor is extraordinarily high by virtue of the talent and depth of the roster, but with only five playoff spots available for nine clubs, good teams will miss the playoffs.

National League West
Los Angeles (94-68)
San Francisco (93-69)
Arizona (84-78)
San Diego (72-90)
Colorado (60-102)

Nolan Arenado is aweoms.e Jake McGee is too. Other than that, no player stands out as impactful for the Rockies and the likes of Ben Paulson, Chad Bettis, and Jordan Lyles all figure to play prominent roles for the club in 2015. I'm still dumbfounded that the team didn't find a new home for Carlos Gonzalez last summer, though taking on Jose Reyes' terrible deal as part of the Troy Tulowitzki swap is probably even worse, even before Reyes' domestic abuse disaster. 2016 will be a year to forget (unless you love athletic, rangy outfield prospects like David Dahl and Raimel Tapia).

The Padres will be better than a 70-92 club this year, but (1) the top three teams in their division will make this year tougher, and (2) A.J. Preller will almost certainly jump at the chance to reload his farm system if the likes of James Shields and Andrew Cashner produce this year. A healthy first half from Cashner would be a huge boon to the franchise.

The Diamondbacks are projected to receive a grand total of 2.0 WAR from their shortstop, second base, and left field positions. Combined. Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Zack Greinke, and Patrick Corbin are all really good (assuming Pollock's 2015 was real), but the holes on this roster are significant. Welington Castillo is a good fit for the ballpark as a power-first catcher, but he was available for peanuts as recently as last summer and there's nothing in the system to replace him if he falters. Despite Greinke's addition and the ridiculous overpay for Shelby Miller, Dave Stewart's club is still loaded with warts.

I went back and forth over and over again between the Giants and Dodgers. In the end, the San Francisco outfield cost them the division as the injury woes of Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Gregor Blanco, and Angel Pagan make the position group iffy. Their infield is amazing (Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Duffy --> WOW!) and their pitching staff should be as good as any in the game, though they'll likely have to acquire a starting pitcher at the deadline assuming that all else is progressing smoothly. I expect that the Bumgarner-Cueto-Samardzija trio will win them a lot of games this year. Good look to whoever faces MadBum in October.

Then we have the Dodgers, aka where pitchers go to get hurt. The Dodgers weaknesses appear to be their outfield (after Yasiel Puig) and their non-Kershaw starting pitchers, but between Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Scott Van Slyke, and Carl Crawford in the outfield, and Scott Kazmir, Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Zach Lee, and prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon in the rotation, the Dodgers should easily fill their holes adequately. I don't know if they'll be an excellent team, but they'll be really good and without holes.

National League East
New York Mets (91-71)
Washington (84-78)
Miami (83-79)
Philadelphia (64-98)
Atlanta (62-100)

The battle for the cellar in the NL East is going to be a doozy. The Braves have done their darndest to get there, and when they make up an insignificant injury for Freddie Freeman that somehow keeps him out of action for two months, they'll lose just enough to get to the basement. If they trade Julio Teheran and Erick Aybar, as expected, their win total could drop into the mid-50s. They'll be much more interesting in September when their gaggle of prospects begins to arrive.

The Phillies will be terrible, make no mistake about it. But they're going to pitch just a bit too well to out-lose the Braves. Still, yuck. What an awful roster.

The Marlins outfield looks great again, especially with a healthy Giancarlo Stanton, and the rotation has a two-headed monster that should work quite well with Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen. Unfortunately, the infield underwhelms, the back of the rotation looks quite poor, and the bullpen has massive holes at the back given a wobbly elbow for A.J. Ramos and Tommy John surgery for Carter Capps. The Marlins could make some noise this year, but I don't think that they're deep enough, in part because I don't believe in Dee Gordon.

It's remarkable how quickly the Nationals went from looking like the best team in the game to looking like Angels East. Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Anthony Rendon still form an idyllic core, but the supporting pieces are either raw (Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner) or fragile (Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth). There's absolutely a 90+ win team in here, but there's also a sputtering .500 roster in play. If anything happens to the five players listed above, they have no shot. That's too risky. Plus, Jon Papelbon inexplicably remains on the roster and that just doesn't bode well.

The Mets position players look solid across the board and the club will have excellent depth among their 13 rostered non-pitchers. There's a lack of star power given Yoenis Cespedes's glovework in center field and David Wright's injury woes, but average or better regulars at nearly every spot put them in good position. With the rotation, Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero are on the outside looking in. That says enough. The bullpen isn't quite that strong, but it should be a plus unit. They're going to cruise to the East crown.

Season Summary and Playoff Tree
The above picks would see the American League feature an above-average collective record of 1232-1198, primarily by virtue of avoiding the stinkbombs expected to come out of Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Colorado. The playoff matchups in the National League would be a dream for Commissioner Manfred whereas the American League matchups...not so much. Let's look at the playoffs:

Wild Card Games
Detroit over Toronto
San Francisco over St. Louis

Division Series
Detroit over Houston
Cleveland over Boston
Chicago Cubs over San Francisco
New York Mets over Los Angeles

Championship Series
Cleveland over Detroit
New York Mets over Chicago Cubs

World Series
New York Mets over Cleveland

The Commissioner's head might explode if he gets to pair a New York-Los Angeles matchup with a Chicago-San Francisco matchup a year after having the same pair of series with San Francisco replacing St. Louis. It's almost too much.

Awards
Finally, no season is complete with selecting the best players in each league. Accordingly, here are my predicted award winners:

MVP
AL: CF Mike Trout
NL: RF Giancarlo Stanton

Cy Young
AL: Corey Kluber
NL: SP Madison Bumgarner

Rookie of the Year
AL: CF Byron Buxton
NL: SS Corey Seager

Manager of the Year
AL: Terry Francona
NL: Bruce Bochy

Let the fun begin!