My last post, a pre-free agency look at a dream scenario for the 2016 offseason, stated that the Bears needed to find the following:
- a starting DE
- two starting ILBs
- a starting CB
- a starting OT/OG
- a starting-caliber TE
Well, here we are two months later and that list is markedly shorter in that it is now empty. Sweet! Here's what Pace did to address the above:
- a starting DE
---------- signed DE Akiem Hicks to a two-year, $10M contract ($5M guaranteed)
- two starting ILBs
---------- signed ILB Danny Trevathan to a four-year, $24.5M contract ($12M guaranteed)
---------- signed ILB Jerrell Freeman to a three-year, $12M contract ($6M guaranteed)
- a starting CB
---------- signed CB Tracy Porter to a three-year, $15M contract ($4.25M guaranteed)
- a starting OT/OG
---------- signed OT Bobby Massie to a three-year, $18M contract ($6.5M guaranteed)
- a starting-caliber TE
---------- signed TE Zach Miller to a two-year, $6M contract ($3M guaranteed)
As is often the case when dealing with non-elite free agents, there is very little dead money on any of these deals following year one. In fact, the crown jewel of the class, Trevathan, has more dead money on his deal as of 2017 ($5.75M) than all other free agents signed to multi-year deals by the Bears this March combined: Freeman ($2M), Hicks ($1M), Massie ($1M), Porter ($600K), Miller ($500K), and Sherrick McManis ($300K) have $5.4M in dead money combined on their deals next year.
Pace effectively signed an entire free agent class to somewhat glorified one-year deals with the exception of Trevathan. Good on you, Ryan.
At this point, despite the fact that the Bears have approximately $21,584,432 in cap space according to my calculations (after accounting for dead money, the draft class, and the practice squad), I expect that Pace is probably done shopping for free agents, at least until after the draft (even though a guy like CB Leon Hall or G/C Stefen Wisniewski would look fantastic filling out this roster).
Which points us to the draft. The best draft approach involves taking the best player available, though the ideal draft scenario involves the best player available while simultaneously filling a position of need/want on a team's roster. Such was the case with WR Kevin White and subsequently with NT Eddie Goldman last year. So what are the odds of the same thing happening this year?
Very, very good.
Following Pace's free agent barrage, my rough estimates for each position groups areas of need/improvement are as follows with "10" representing the Bears quarterback position of the early 2000s and "0" representing the Bears Hall of Fame-studded defensive line of the mid-1980s:
0: WR, G
1: ILB
2: NT
3:
4: C
5: DE
6:
7: RB
8: OT
9: QB, TE, OLB, S
10: CB, K
The team is loaded with talent - though not necessarily of the star variety - at wide receiver, guard, and inside linebacker, not even needing additional reserves. Nose tackle only makes the list because Terry Williams and D'Anthony Smith are underwhelming backups to stud Goldman.
Hroniss Grasu should be pushed at center but only by a reserve, and while the quartet of Akiem Hicks, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, and Cornelius Washington could use another, better body, the need isn't alarming at this point.
As for the other spots: Jeremy Langford could use a buddy. Charles Leno is hardly proven at LT. The tight end group would have seen this number drop in a big way had the Saints declined to match Josh Hill's offer sheet but since New Orleans kept Hill, the duo of Miller and Khari Lee needs more intrigue. Lamarr Houston showed enough in December to warrant another look this year, but it's entirely possible that Willie Young and Houston will be gone after this year, rendering OLB a serious need, especially with Pernell McPhee's fragility. The safety group needs an infusion of a better young athlete than Harold Jones-Quartey, but this group would be a "7" if Antrel Rolle was solid and a "10!" if Rolle was hurt again.
It's no secret that Jay Cutler doesn't figure to last forever with the Bears and, in fact, he can be cut following the 2016 season with a dead money charge of just $2M. New regimes mean new quarterbacks, so expect to see Pace and John Fox grab a new quarterback at some point in the next 14 months, either in this draft or the next one.
As for the two biggest outstanding needs: the cornerback group is quite poor. I maintain plenty of hope for Bryce Callahan as a #4 CB and Kyle Fuller still looks like a #1/#2 if things continue to work. But Tracy Porter is a fragile #3 and Sherrick McManis should only play on special teams. The Bears need a new body to top the depth chart here. And then kicker. This makes me eminently sad. Robbie Gould has lived my dream sports life: this former kicker and fan of both the Nittany Lions and Bears has always loved Robbie. However, in 2015, Gould was the NFL's worst kicker by a wide margin - primarily by virtue of his terrible kickoffs - making his $4.1M cap hit absolutely untenable. Gould figures to benefit more than any other kicker in the league from the NFL's rule change moving touchbacks from the 20 to the 25, but it's also possible that his leg is spent. If I'm advocating for his release, it's almost certainly time.
With that treatise out of the way, let's look at the draft. As a reminder, each pick's targets consider the players previously drafted. Accordingly, for example, if the team drafts two cornerbacks earlier in the draft, don't expect to see another one in the 6th round.
First Round (#11 overall)
Possibilities: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon), DE A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), CB Vernon Hargreaves (Florida), OT Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), QB Carson Wentz (North Dakota State), QB Jared Goff (California), OT Jack Conklin (Michigan State)
Analysis: Since my last update, two major developments have rocked the draft board. First, Jaylon Smith's knee injury has proved to be much more alarming than expected, likely dropping Smith out of the first round entirely and sending him well down the draft board. Second, my personal favorite, Myles Jack, has wowed teams and prognosticators with his crazy skills, sending him flying up draft boards. While this is no surprise to me, it means that Jack is out of consideration.
Much like last time, I assume that a group of players will be gone: OT Laremy Tunsil, DE Joey Bosa, Jack, and S Jalen Ramsey. In this underwhelming class, that's it.
I'm not a fan of Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd, so I have the Bears looking at seven prospects. Either QB (Wentz or Goff) fits. Conklin or Stanley would both make plenty of sense. But the bet here is that Pace goes with one of the defenders, grabbing Robinson or Buckner to bring a pass rush from the edge-setting 3-4 DE spot or Hargreaves to man the #1 CB spot. Because I only like-but-don't-love Hargreaves, I'll state my preference for one of the DEs. If I'm choosing between those two, it's easy.
The Pick: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon)
Second Round (#41 overall)
Possibilities: OLB Shilique Calhoun (Michigan State), CB Mackensie Alexander (Clemson), CB Eli Apple (Ohio State), CB Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), OT Jason Spriggs (Indiana), OT Taylor Decker (Ohio State), TE Hunter Henry (Arkansas)
Analysis: This group is simply defined: a pass rusher, three corners, two tackles, and a tight end since the Saints kept Hill.
My favorite player in the group remains Apple, though any of these players would be a nice addition to the roster. While Fuller would be a nice story being paired with his brother, his injury concerns are significant.
The Pick: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)
Third Round (#72 overall)
Possibilities: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn State), QB Connor Cook (Michigan State), S Vonn Bell (Ohio State), S Jalen Mills (LSU), OT Tyler Johnstone (Oregon)
Analysis: This is definitely the toughest pick of the draft for the Bears. If both quarterbacks are on the board, the front office will be tempted to nab one given their impressive pedigrees and conceivably coachable flaws.
Unfortunately, both safeties represent even bigger needs and similar values.
I still love Mills. I'm not changing this pick until somebody makes me. Given Cook's arm and his pro-style experience, I doubt he makes it quite this far. Accordingly, I'll stick with the safety while acknowledging that I'd probably take Cook over Mills if presented with the opportunity.
The Pick: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
Fourth Round (#106 overall)
Possibilities: ILB Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), OLB Carl Nassib (Penn State), QB Cardale Jones (Ohio State), OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
Analysis: This is another interesting spot.
I think that the front office would jump at Smith if he dropped this far. He's an impact talent if healthy, so even if there's only a 5% chance that he's healthy, the value is simply too strong this far down in the draft. He probably doesn't fall this far. Probably.
Nassib is the definition of a one-year wonder. In 2014, he had seven tackles. In 2015, he had 15.5 sacks even though he missed a quarter of the season with a shoulder injury. He's got more of a classic 4-3 DE build, but he added nearly 60 pounds to his frame in college, so it may be worth examining whether he could shed 10-15 of those to man an OLB spot.
Jones is a flyer on a big-bodied, big-armed, inexperienced quarterback who should have turned pro 14 months ago.
McCalister jumps out at me, too. He's a little undersized and his straight-line speed isn't overwhelming. It's possible than NFL tackles will simply be too big and strong for him to use his pass rushing moves. But I like what I've seen and I think that he could work as a specialist, even as a rookie.
I'm going to assume that Smith is off the board; otherwise, he'd be the pick, risk be damned.
The Pick: OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
Fourth Round (#127 overall)
Possibilities: S Jayron Kearse (Clemson), OT Denver Kirkland (Arkansas), OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA), DE Anthony Zettel (Penn State)
Analysis: The pre-draft process hasn't been particularly kind to Kearse or Zettel which tells me that either player would represent solid value at this juncture: they're better football players than they are testing prospects.
Kirkland was intriguing before but I don't love him. Benenoch, on the other hand, really jumps out to me. He's a perfect reserve as a rookie given that he played both guard and tackle at UCLA. Further, the Combine revealed that while his arms aren't as long as Stanley's or Conklin's, they are comparable to those of Tunsil. That's plenty encouraging and probably worth a flyer.
The Pick: OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA)
Fifth Round (#150 overall)
Possibilities: DE Shawn Oakman (Baylor), RB Devontae Booker (Utah), RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama), RB Kelvin Taylor (Florida), S Elijah Shumate (Notre Dame)
Analysis: Oakman might not be all that good at football, but the chance to take a shot on a 6'9", 280-lbs. DE sure is tempting.
Drake comes with serious injury red flags (multiple broken bones in college) but also the plusses of being (1) incredibly fast and (2) a backup running back from Alabama. Those guys have solid track records. Booker and Taylor are both solid enough as prospects, though neither is as enticing as Drake.
The Pick: RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama)
Sixth Round (#185 overall)
Possibilities: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
Analysis: Jones would still be a great return man, but with Deonte Thompson on board and a league that continually marginalizes the value of returns, perhaps he's not worth it to the Bears. His 40 time and his tiny frame make it tough to employ him as a regular in the defensive backfield. That said, if Jones is available, he'll be a great pick here.
The Pick: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
Sixth Round (#206 overall)
Possibilities: NT Antwaun Woods (USC), TE Bryce Williams (East Carolina)
Analysis: Woods would still be a nice get here to backup Goldman. Williams obviously comes with some optimism too, though his speed (or lack thereof) knocks him down a peg or two.
The Pick: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)
Seventh Round (#230 overall)
Possibilities: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
Analysis: If the Bears can still nab Fairbairn here, they should do it and pocket the massive cap savings.
The Pick: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
The complete draft class as listed above would be as follows:
1.011: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon)
2.041: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)
3.072: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
4.106: OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
4.127: OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA)
5.150: RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama)
6.185: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
6.206: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)
7.230: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)
FINAL ROSTER With all of that wheeling and dealing - both real and projected - the Bears would find themselves with the following approximate 53-man roster (draftees in italics, free agents in bold, re-signed free agents underlined):
SP (3): Ka'imi Fairbairn, Pat O'Donnell, Patrick Scales
QB (2): Jay Cutler, David Fales
C (1): Hroniss Grasu
G (2): Kyle Long, Matt Slauson
OT (5): Bobby Massie, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje, Caleb Benenoch, Nick Becton
RB (4): Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kenyan Drake
WR (7): Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Deonte Thompson, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy
TE (3): Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Rob Housler
NT (2): Eddie Goldman, Antwaun Woods
DE (6): Akiem Hicks, DeForest Buckner, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, Mitch Unrein, Cornelius Washington
ILB (4): Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Christian Jones, Jonathan Anderson
OLB (4): Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Alex McCalister
CB (6): Kyle Fuller, Tracy Porter, Eli Apple, Bryce Callahan, Cyrus Jones, Sherrick McManis
S (4): Adrian Amos, Jalen Mills, Antrel Rolle, Harold Jones-Quartey
There's no chance of the team keeping seven receivers, with Bellamy as the most likely odd man out given that he has no guaranteed money in his contract. Still, that's not a bad team. Not bad at all.
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