2016 Chicago Cubs Player Predictions - Position Players

It's time again for predictions for the 2016 Chicago Cubs. Following last year's rousing success of a season, expectations are high and hopes are higher for the 2016 club. Let's see how the players might do. For each chart listed below, the PA, UZR and WAR columns reflect the player's total for that position only whereas the remaining columns reflect the player's total for all positions.

Catcher

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Montero, Miguel	400	.240	.335	.400	15	0	10	2.3
Ross, David	125	.205	.280	.325	5	0	10	0.5
Schwarber, Kyle	100	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-5	0.5
Contreras, Willson	15	.250	.310	.380	1	0	0	0.0

The catching group has a beautifully clean transition plan in place. Of course, the odds of such a transition actually occurring as expected are remote.

As I see it, the 2016 group figures to be comprised primarily of a combination of Miguel Montero and David Ross with a sprinkling of Kyle Schwarber. After Ross retires following the 2016 season, the 2017 tandem of Montero and hot prospect Willson Contreras looks likely to handle the job. After Montero's contract expires at the end of the 2017 season, the job should be Contreras's to lose with fellow prospect Victor Caratini given the first crack to be the complementary reserve.

For 2016, this figures to be one of the weaker links on the team and that says something given Montero's league-average production in 2015 before factoring in his elite framing ability. It'll be worth keeping an eye on how much the coaching staff trusts Schwarber behind the dish. Regardless, 3.3 WAR production would be well above average.

First Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Rizzo, Anthony	680	.290	.395	.540	37	8	6	6.5
Zobrist, Ben	20	.275	.365	.480	21	2	0.1	0.1

Hello! It's a little bizarre to project something of a mini-breakout for an established star like Rizzo, but I'm going for it for a few reasons. First, he's 26, an age at which a bit more growth would be warranted. Second, he fixed his major flaw last year, posting a 145 wRC+ against southpaws. Third, the lineup around Rizzo was strong in 2015 but it figures to be absurdly strong in 2016: he should be surrounded by the likes of Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Schwarber this year. While his walk rate may take a tiny dip as a result, I expect that he'll set a new career high for home runs even after belting 32 and 31 over 2014-15. Health has been key for Rizzo, so it will be interesting to see if Joe Maddon rests his slugging first baseman over Rizzo's protests.

Regardless, 6.6 WAR from the position would likely lead the Majors.

Second Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Zobrist, Ben	520	.275	.365	.480	21	2	8	3.8
Baez, Javier	90	.245	.295	.430	15	10	2	0.2
La Stella, Tommy	70	.280	.320	.365	2	0	1	0.2
Kawasaki, Munenori	20	.230	.300	.280	0	0	0.2	0

Second base is one of a few spots for the 2016 Cubs that has the ability of going in numerous different ways. While Ben Zobrist is penciled in as the everyday starter at the spot, injuries in the outfield and/or to Zobrist himself could result in a multitude of other players getting time at the keystone. Here's the thing: after years of health, Zobrist's 2015 injury appears to be an outlier, so I'm betting on a return to health for him in 2016. In addition to health, I think that he's going to enjoy hitting at Wrigley Field after spending time in a plethora of pitcher's parks during his career. He's also likely to benefit from hitting near the top of a loaded lineup. Everything is coming together for Zobrist to enjoy a return to under-the-radar stardom in 2016. If anything, this pick is a bit conservative.

Third Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Bryant, Kris	640	.270	.385	.520	34	10	5	6.5
Baez, Javier	40	.245	.295	.430	15	10	1	0.1
La Stella, Tommy	20	.280	.320	.365	2	0	0	0.1

This is the part where I start drooling. My affection for Bryant has never been a secret, but even after last year's BABIP-fueled star-level debut, I think he's going to blow the top off of his perceived ceiling. He's that good. Some slight regression from his defense and his baserunning will offset his offensive gains in terms of WAR, but Bryant will firmly entrench himself as one of the 10 or so elite offensive forces in baseball this year. Amazing!

Shortstop

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Russell, Addison	620	.275	.345	.450	20	20	20	5.5
Baez, Javier	80	.245	.295	.430	15	10	-1	0.4

Not to be outdone, fellow sophomore Addison Russell is well on his way to reminding folks that he's a budding star as well. He certainly has an uphill climb to reach the Bryant tier, but Russell has the combined defensive acumen and offensive potential to get there, especially considering his positional value. With Starlin Castro now the Yankees' problem, Russell has a job on a platter with a chance to show folks how truly special he is. I think he's going to be the breakout player in baseball this year.

Left Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Schwarber, Kyle	460	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-5	3.5
Soler, Jorge	180	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-3	0.7
Zobrist, Ben	60	.275	.365	.480	21	2	0.5	0.3

Left field could go a lot of different directions in 2016, but at the outset, it appears as though Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler will man the position for the majority of the time. If you find yourself thinking, "hey wait, wouldn't that be a terrible defensive position?" just know that I'm with you. I expect that somebody will make the roster by virtue of having a strong glove with which to cover this spot in the late innings of tight games, but for now, Zobrist is the placeholder.

Center Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Fowler, Dexter	450	.270	.365	.420	12	15	-10	1
Heyward, Jason	220	.275	.360	.455	20	20	3	2
Szczur, Matt	30	.250	.300	.330	1	2	0	0

This position looks a whole lot different than it did at the start of Spring Training. With Dexter Fowler back in the fold, he and Jason Heyward figure to handle the vast majority of the duties up the middle. Fowler comes with a long injury history, so the bet here is that he doesn't make it through a full season. No matter: the Cubs are wonderfully equipped to handle a prolonged absence.

Right Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Heyward, Jason	460	.275	.360	.455	20	20	10	4.5
Soler, Jorge	220	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-3	1
Schwarber, Kyle	20	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-0.1	.2

For a while this winter, it appeared as though Soler would have this spot for the taking, giving him access to a full-time gig in which to prove his chops as an everyday player. However, with the return of Fowler to play center field and with prospect Albert Almora turning things on in the second half at Double-A last year, Soler may find himself on the trade block in the not-too-distant future unless he hits his way into a regular gig. The bet here is that a Fowler injury gives Soler that opportunity and he earns his keep...before finding himself dealt elsewhere this winter anyway. No matter: for 2016, Soler may be the most valuable reserve bat in the game.

Designated Hitter

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Soler, Jorge	50	.275	.350	.445	20	0	0	0.3

After singing Soler's praises above, it only makes sense that the fragile corner outfielder will be the primary DH in American League parks.

POSITION PLAYER TOTALS
Here's a composite list of expected output for each player on the 2016 Cubs. Disclaimer: this looks especially rosy.

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Bryant, Kris	640	.270	.385	.520	34	10	5	6.5
Rizzo, Anthony	680	.290	.395	.540	37	8	6	6.5
Heyward, Jason	680	.275	.360	.455	20	20	13	6.5
Russell, Addison	620	.275	.345	.450	20	20	20	5.5
Zobrist, Ben	600	.275	.365	.480	21	2	8.6	4.2
Schwarber, Kyle	580	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-10.1	4.2
Montero, Miguel	400	.240	.335	.400	15	0	10	2.3
Soler, Jorge	450	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-6	2.0
Fowler, Dexter	450	.270	.365	.420	12	15	-10	1.0
Ross, David	125	.205	.280	.325	5	0	10	0.5
Baez, Javier	210	.245	.295	.430	15	10	2	0.7
La Stella, Tommy	90	.280	.320	.365	2	0	1	0.3
Szczur, Matt	30	.250	.300	.330	1	2	0	0.0
Kawasaki, Munenori	20	.230	.300	.280	0	0	0.2	0.0
Contreras, Willson	15	.250	.310	.380	1	0	0	0.0

If that comes true, the Cubs will easily win 100+ games and enter October as prohibitive favorites to win the World Series.

But you have to pitch, too. Thankfully, the Cubs are really good at pitching as well. I'll tackle that in the next post.