I'm writing on my phone from gorgeous Johnson City, Tennessee, so I'll have to keep this brief. Here goes:
Do not, under any circumstances, draft Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd. Floyd is rangy and quick, but he's consistently off-balance and plays out of control. He's the next Aaron Maybin, a "pass rushing force" who is great in college but engulfed and neutralized by NFL tackles. Don't do it, Ryan Pace.
I also don't want to see Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott be the pick. Elliott looks amazing, but the defensive holes and remaining gaps on both lines are both more pressing and more essential to address from a team-building standpoint. I'll be twistedly excited if Elliott is the pick, but I'll be disappointed at the same time. Weird.
With that said, I'm excited for draft night. I'd feel eminently better about the Bears drafting 9th than 11th, but there's still a good chance that one of my top targets makes it.
For purposes of this ranking, I'll assume that Cal QB Jared Goff, North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz, and Florida State S Jalen Ramsey are categorically off the board. With that in mind, here is my list of nine players to target at #11, starting with my least favorite and ending with my top choice.
9. Ohio State CB Eli Apple
----- I love Apple but I've been hopeful that the Bears can nab him at #41. If this is what it takes, it's a reach. But at least I like the player.
8. Alabama DE A'Shawn Robinson
----- I love watching Robinson play football, but he seems much less explosive now than I remembered him being a few months ago. He'd still be a nice five technique fit.
7. Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley
----- I like Stanley a lot, too, but Charles Leno showed enough to deserve an extended look, Bobby Massie just got a significant free agent deal, and I think that defensive needs are more significant. I'll be only mildly disappointed if Stanley is the pick. He makes oodles of sense.
6. Clemson DE Shaq Lawson
----- I like Lawson, but I don't love him. He has the look of an average starting DE and that's not sexy at #11. Plenty of people like him a lot more; I don't think he's quick enough.
5. Flordia CB Vernon Hargreaves
----- Hargreaves is fast. Like, crazy fast. Normally I hate smallish corners - hence the hefty Apple appearing above - but Hargreaves gets an exception. He's explosive.
4. Ohio State DE Joey Bosa
----- It was unthinkable a month ago that Bosa could slip to #11, but the pre-draft process has been unkind to him. As a classic 4-3 defensive end, he is something of a tweener in the 3-4, a bit big to play OLB and possibly a bit small to play end. I still think he'd make an excellent five technique defensive end with another ten pounds on his frame and I'd love to see it happen.
3. Mississippi OT Laremy Tunsil
---- Tunsil almost certainly isn't making it to #11, but if he slips, I'll be ecstatic. He's a franchise left tackle for the next decade. He's basically the perfect tackle prospect with measurables and superb tape against elite competition.
2. UCLA LB Myles Jack
----- I haven't been sneaky about it: I think Jack is going to be a superstar in the NFL, and I think his ability to run and hit in the middle of a 3-4 would be incredible. It may seem like an odd fit now given that Pace added both Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency, the top two inside linebackers on the market, but (1) Jack is that impactful, and (2) Freeman is effectively on a glorified one-year deal. Grab the best player and make it work.
1. Oregon DE DeForest Buckner
----- Unlike Jack, Buckner comes without the need to play roster Jenga: the Bears desperately need an impact five technique player to accelerate their defensive rebuild and Buckner happens to be my favorite player in this draft, regardless of position. He's both an ideal specimen and a really good football player. Accordingly, he's my ideal target tomorrow night.
Regardless of who the Bears draft in the first round, I'd like to see the club add a defensive end, a safety, and two cornerbacks in the draft. The secondary desperately needs additional playmakers and safeties who figure to be available in the second or third round like Ohio State's Vonn Bell or LSU's Jalen Mills would be of tremendous help. I'd love to see a couple of super-fast, still raw upside plays and another offensive tackle prospect would make sense.
There we have it. If Buckner or Jack is a Bear this time tomorrow, I'll be ecstatic. If Floyd is a Bear, I'll be severely disappointed. Bring on the draft!
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