There's no way to sugarcoat this: James Franklin has used up just about all of the goodwill he had with him when he arrived in Happy Valley. We could debate for ages whether or not that's fair, but the reality of the Franklin tenure isn't all that pretty. 0-6 against OSU, MSU, and U of M. 0-2 against Northwestern. A loss to Temple. A 1-point win against a 3-9 Maryland team in 2015...that followed a 1-point home loss to Maryland in 2014, Penn State's second-ever loss to Maryland in 37 meetings at the time. A pair of drubbings at the hands of Michigan State. The regression of ace quarterback Christian Hackenberg under Franklin's regime.
The list of bad is lengthy.
That said, the list of good still exists, even if it isn't quite as impressive. Rousing wins over UCF and Boston College bookended a decent debut season in 2014 and a great showing against eventual national champion Ohio State in late October (a double-overtime loss) engendered real hope. He kept a solid recruiting class on board in 2014 (25th) after taking over for Bill O'Brien, and his 2015 and 2016 classes (15th and 23rd, respectively) suggest that he'll keep enough talent in-house to win. His 2017 class is largely in line with the 15-16 groups with his current quartet of pledges for 2018 having the makings of a potential impact group.
Of course, those future recruiting classes only matter to Franklin if he is still around to coach them. In my eyes, he needs at least six wins this year to keep the job, and he may very well need to avoid another catastrophic loss like the beatdown handed to his club by Temple last year.
I've been generally underwhelmed by Franklin at times and deeply disappointed at others. Not a winning combination. His solid production at Vanderbilt portends better things at Penn State than he has shown thus far. Let's look at the 2016 squad and then examine how it should be expected to perform against its schedule to see just what Franklin's chances are of sticking around and regaining the trust of the fan base.
Defense
As a personal preference, I'd much rather have a strong defensive line backed up by middling linebackers and defensive backs than a great back seven with a middling line playing in front of it. The 2015 Penn State defense featured an inexperienced-but-talented secondary (save for Dolphins draftee Jordan Lucas), an underperforming and injury-bitten linebacking group, and an elite defensive line that featured a second-round pick at defensive tackle (Austin Johnson), a third-round pick at defensive end (Carl Nassib), a sixth-round pick that split time between the spots (Anthony Zettel), and a star in the making in end Garret Sickels.
Only Sickels returns this year and the complementary pieces are all question marks. Senior end Evan Schwan should be pushed by blue chip redshirt freshman Ryan Buchholz. But it's possible that none of that will matter as the Nittany Lions don't really have interior replacements for Johnson or Zettel. How bad is it? 275-pound redshirt freshman Kevin Givens is slated to start. Gulp. 275-pound defensive tackles are rare commodities (Johnson is 313 pounds!), and an interior line that gets pushed off of the ball spells disaster for the defense. If Givens and redshirt junior Parker Cothren can hold their ground on the interior, the defense could be a bit better on the whole than last year's group. But if the Penn State defense regresses mightily in 2016, look at the interior of the line as the likely reason why.
The linebackers should be much stronger in 2016. Nyeem Wartman-White returns as a redshirt senior to stuff the run, and juniors Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda both have chances to make All-Big Ten teams at season's end. Importantly, blue chip true sophomore Manny Bowen is pushing for playing time, and he's a nice contrast to Wartman-White as a smaller, faster player who can be relied upon more heavily in pass coverage. The unit stacks up well, especially if Bell can capture some of his 2014 promise.
The defensive backfield has a chance to be the strongest unit on the defense given the presence of both strong depth and decent ceilings. Marcus Allen returns for what I think will be a final year in college before leaping to Sundays and he'll be joined at safety by three experienced solid citizens in Malik Golden, Koa Farmer, and Troy Apke, The ceiling is lower for that trio than would be ideal, but between them, Golden's coverage skills and Farmer's run support should play well. The cornerbacks are younger than the safeties, but this is the most talented group of corners in Franklin's three seasons. Undersized junior Grant Haley plays well on an island, and big-time prospect John Reid has won the opposite corner job. Junior Christian Campbell offers some depth with redshirt freshman Garrett Taylor the real high-ceiling play in the group. There's enough talent here to absorb an injury and still net solid production.
In the end, I'd expect the defense to play a bit worse than the 2015 unit given the losses on the defensive line, but a final defensive rankings in the teens is plenty plausible.
Offense
Boy, is this going to be interesting or what?
Franklin couldn't make it work with Hackenberg, one of the most disappointing results for a coach-quarterback combination in all of college football last year. The days of the Hackenberg-O'Brien union now seem like a distant memory.
New offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead brings a new offense to Penn State, one that features a zone blocking scheme and a series of shorter passes. New quarterback Trace McSorley seems reasonably well suited to run such an offense, though there's no denying the drop off in physical skills at the position. McSorley runs well and he throws a good ball, so there's still a reason for hope. Then again, there's simultaneously an expectation of growing pains and combining that with a six-foot, redshirt sophomore quarterback can go south in a hurry.
The line has consistently been a disaster under Franklin, but there is finally a reason to have some hope that this group can improve from last year. After Paris Palmer flopped as a JUCO left tackle, redshirt junior Brendan Mahon solidified the spot (to a degree) and he figures to hold the job going forward. Redshirt junior right tackle Andrew Nelson is a beneficiary as he gets to move back to his more natural spot. Right guard Derek Dowrey and center Brian Gaia, both fifth-year seniors, are the weak links. Left guard Ryan Bates, a redshirt freshman, may experience some growing pains, but he's a good bet to stick as a starter for the next four years. Franklin has badly needed somebody like this given that Penn State hasn't grabbed a plus starter on the offensive line since Donovan Smith. Thankfully for Franklin, true freshman Michal Menet is waiting in the wings with a real shot to take over for Dowrey if things go south. I'll be keeping my eye on that this year.
If Penn State can get average line play (an aspiration at this point, even with the experience), the offense should fly because the skill position players are arguably the best in the Big Ten. The undisputed leader is returning Freshman All-American Saquon Barkley. Barkley is a special runner with elite agility, quick moves, and enough speed to make it all work. The drop off from Barkley to his comrades is stark, though freshman Miles Sanders comes with the same type of pedigree.
The pass catchers are primed for huge seasons at the same time. Three juniors - Chris Godwin, Saeed Blacknall, and DaeSean Hamilton - form the best trio of Nittany receivers since Derek Moye, Graham Zug, and Chaz Powell caught balls from Daryll Clark en route to the program's most recent top-ten finish in 2009. Quick sophomore DeAndre Thompkins and huge redshirt freshman JuWan Johnson complete an incredibly strong five-man unit.
The tight end spot is shallow, but it is very strong at the top with future NFLer Mike Gesicki leading the way. Gesicki will need to add a bit of bulk to thrive in the NFL, but for now, he'll settle for being a speedy interior threat for the offense.
In the end, the Penn State offense will thrive or sputter depending on the play of the line. The skill position players are so good that they should be able to overwhelm inferior opponents, but the unit must function as a whole against the cream of the crop. I'm still bullish on the big boys up front, but if they play well, 2016 could be an offensive breakout of sorts for Franklin at Penn State.
Special Teams
Often overlooked yet no less crucial, Penn State's kicking game was disastrous last year. After an excellent senior season from Sam Ficken in 2014, Joey Julius struggled mightily with his accuracy on placement kicks in '15, including missing four extra points. The punting, incredibly, was substantially worse as nobody grabbed the job and the team gave away dozens of yards each game on terrible kicks.
No more. The placekicking should be adequate this season with Julius likely handling kickoff duties and accurate junior Tyler Davis handling the placekicks inside of about 45 yards. Just as importantly, freshman Alex Babir provides hope for the future at the position.
Most importantly, the punting should be exponentially better with freshman Blake Gillikin, among the top-five punters in the class, manning the spot. This upgrade should pay immediate dividends.
The return options aren't all that inspiring, but in an era where most skills have a kickoff specialist who negates the return game, the cost is comparatively low. Hopefully the coaching staff is smart enough to avoid putting Barkley back to catch any kicks.
Coaching
In college, it all comes back to this. I'm not optimistic that Franklin turns a corner and most of his assistants are new, something that always requires time for adjustment. In the end, they'll likely be outcoached as a staff in a good number of their games, especially as the staff learns to work together.
Schedule
Ruh roh. If Penn State was a better team, they'd be set up to make a big run with both Ohio State and Michigan State heading to Pennsylvania this year. Unfortunately, for a middling club, having brutally hard games at home and comparatively less difficult games on the road means that there are very few gimmes on the schedule. Here's how I see things playing out:
Opponent PSU Win % Predicted Score
Kent State 95% 38-10 (W)
@ Pittsburgh 40% 16-27 (L)
Temple 90% 33-16 (W)
@ Michigan 1% 6-34 (L)
Minnesota 55% 23-27 (L)
Maryland 65% 28-20 (W)
Ohio State 4% 17-33 (L)
@ Purdue 70% 26-10 (W)
Iowa 50% 31-29 (W)
@ Indiana 60% 38-34 (W)
@ Rutgers 80% 29-16 (W)
Michigan State 40% 16-24 (L)
My actual predictions would have the Nittany Lions finish the season at 7-5 with a 5-4 record in the Big Ten. I'd be plenty happy with that because my gut tells me that they'll finish 6-6 or 5-7. Basically, it boils down to the fact that the roster appears to have 7-9 win talent but I don't trust Franklin. My predicted win percentages yield exactly 6.5 wins on the season, so perhaps 6-6 or 7-5 is the better pick.
Franklin has enough talent in the program at this point to continue his run of reaching a bowl game in every season as a head coach. However, a year after taking 9-10 win talent to a 7-5 record, he's going to have to do more with less this year. If he can do that and earn himself another year, the outlook for 2017 will be very bright, including aspirations of returning to double-digit victories. If not, well, the trustees could be searching for their fifth coach in seven years.
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