Growing up in Michigan with a bunch of Michigan fan friends while also being a Penn State fan in the Internet age, Penn State and Michigan are the two teams with which I have the most familiarity. I'm engaged in watching their games and talking with others who watch them as well. I follow their recruiting efforts. I have a feel for their coaching staffs. Put it all together and I have a pretty good grasp on the two squads.
So, before I get going, for posterity's sake, here was my prediction for the game (from Facebook on 9/23/16):
Kevin Anderson Matt McMurry Sam Martin Alright guys, I picked Michigan to beat Nittany 34-6 before the season started. With three more weeks of evidence, I'm revising my pick to.....
48-6 Wolverines. Puke.
Michigan's line play will dominate Nittany's on both sides of the ball. To make matters worse, all three Penn State starting linebackers are either out or seriously hobbled. Nyeem Wartman-White is out for the year with a knee injury, Jason Cabinda is unlikely to play with an arm injury, and even if he does suit up, he'll be well less than 100%. Brandon Bell could hypothetically play, but he's been on crutches for weeks, so like Cabinda, even if he plays, he'll be operating at much less than capacity.
So let's see: weak interior defensive line + no linebackers --> Michigan is going to run at all. And Nittany has no pass rush. Put it together and Michigan is going to score at will.
Nittany's offensive skill players aren't any worse than Michigan's -- Nittany has a strong veteran receiving core + a really good pass-catching tight end + a solid recruit as a first-year starter at QB + a potential All-American running back (also injured - missed half of last week's game before busting out a beauty of a TD run to seal the game) -- but Nittany's O-Line is still a mess, so none of the above really matters all that much against Michigan's strong defensive front. Peppers might have a good game, but it doesn't matter. The D-Line will dominate for Michigan. It'll be an unpleasant day for Trace McSorley.
On the bright side: Penn State has an awesome new freshman punter, so at least they'll be able to punt the ball far away from their own goal line!
I'll never have another one this accurate in my life and that's just fine with me.
Onto the thoughts...
1. There's a great chance that James Franklin's timeout in the third quarter will be the last image of the Franklin era for me.
Down 28-0 on the road as a 19-point underdog facing a 4th-and-goal situation from the Michigan 3 in the 3rd quarter, Franklin inexplicably sent out the field goal unit to turn a four-score game into a...well, still a four-score game. Hard to get much worse than that, right?
Well, Franklin managed to pour a little salt in the wound, streaming down the sideline to call a timeout just before the play clock expired to turn a 20-yard field goal attempt into an impossible 25-yard field goal attempt. Never mind that Penn State kicker Tyler Davis hasn't missed a field goal attempt in 12 career tries (or an extra point in 10 attempts): it is never worth a timeout to avoid the downside risk of turning a 20-yard attempt into a 25-yard attempt. Never. The Michigan fans around me speculated that Franklin changed his mind and had to go for it given the insanity of calling for that kick, but I assured them that he'd still attempt the field goal. Sure enough, the kicking unit trotted back out to embarrassingly reduce the deficit by a negligible amount. So many egregious errors on one simple play.
It reminded me of what I thought would have been the worst clock/timeout management I've ever seen which occurred during Franklin's last trip to the Big House in 2014. Trailing 16-13 with 2:31 remaining, Christian Hackenberg was sacked on a 3rd-and-19 play to set up a 4th-and-32 situation for Penn State at their own 3. Penn State had two timeouts remaining.
Take a moment to think about what you'd do in this situation.
Now think of the worst possible alternatives to your plan.
Got 'em? Now prepared to be dumbfounded even further by what Franklin did.
The end of the sack play was at the 2:23 mark of the game. After allowing about 20 seconds to run off of the clock, Franklin sends out the punt team. The clock continues to run as Penn State is missing a member of its punt unit. The play clock gets down to one. Remember: Penn State is facing 4th-and-32 from its own 3. What does Franklin do? Call a timeout. Stomach punch. Naturally and sanely, Franklin has his center then snap the ball out of the back of the endzone to set up an onside kick. When the onside kick failed, Penn State had just one timeout left with only 1:39 remaining, effectively sapping the team of the chance to get another desperation possession. As it turned out, Penn State recovered the onside kick but an exceptionally tight (and possibly incorrect) offside call negated the recovery.
I honestly don't know which set of decisions was worse, but it doesn't really matter. Both were inexcusably inept.
2. I expected Penn State's defensive line to be significantly overmatched against Michigan's experienced offensive line, but "manhandled" says it better
Solid redshirt junior end Garrett Sickels had a couple of nice plays, but he was routinely chipped and double-teamed early, with Michigan opting to neutralize Sickels and force Penn State's other linemen to make plays. Given that the other linemen were as follows, can you blame them?
- Redshirt senior two star DE Evan Schwan
- Redshirt junior low three star DT Parker Cothren
- Redshirt freshman low three star DT Kevin Givens (recruited as a linebacker but playing DT at 275 pounds due to a lack of bodies)
The reserve linemen basically didn't get on the field all that much with the exception of redshirt sophomore end Torrence Brown, who looked fast but woefully undersized. Redshirt freshman end Ryan Buchholz, the other premium but raw talent in the group, did get a few snaps as well.
The defensive line penetrated on maybe ten percent of the drop backs and only came somewhat close to sacking Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight on one occasion in the entire game. A clean, steady pocket for any opposing quarterback is a recipe for disaster.
For good measure, the defensive linemen combined for one tackle for loss, an excellent play on which the quick Brown snuffed out an end around to speedy Michigan freshman Eddie McDoom for a five yard loss. But that's it. The defensive line just got obliterated.
3. Penn State's linebacking situation is laughably sad
At the beginning of the season, this group lacked depth but looked strong in the starting lineup with redshirt senior Nyeem Wartman-White leading the charge, true senior Brandon Bell (a former All-Freshman All-Big-Ten performer), and junior Jason Cabinda looking like a steadying force in the middle.
Of course, none of the three dressed in Ann Arbor (and Wartman-White is out for the year), so Penn State rolled with true sophomore and good recruit Manny Bowen, true sophomore and OK recruit Jake Cooper, and walk-on junior Brandon Smith.
But it gets worse. In the second quarter, Smith was called for an obviously incorrect targeting penalty and ejected. His replacement? Redshirt freshman walk-on Jan Johnson, a player who quit the football team mid-season last year to join the wrestling team and wasn't even listed on the three-deep depth chart. Obviously I couldn't make that up. Sadly, Johnson lasted all of a series or two as Johnson blew out his knee. His replacement? 215-pound freshman Cam Brown. Yikes.
To be fair, Bowen was all over the place in the first half, making numerous plays as the linemen generously allowed Michigan ball carriers to get to the second level on most plays. Bowen looked like a real piece.
Sadly, the other players looked like the combination of walk-ons and freshmen that they are. Not a plays being made there.
4. Penn State's defensive backs played a strong game given ample opportunities
This wasn't a surprise to me as I expected this unit to be the strength of the defense this season. Sadly, #1 corner Grant Haley missed the game, though his presence could hardly be sad to have impacted the outcome. Starter John Reid had an up-and-down afternoon, but the truly promising corner combination was junior Christian Campbell and redshirt sophomore Amani Oruwariye, both of whom made a handful of impressive breakups and tackles.
Unsurprisingly, redshirt senior safety Malik Golden played another solid game and junior Marcus Allen was excellent, making a slew of sure tackles in the open field and breaking up a couple of Michigan running plays.
5. Joey Julius isn't all that accurate when kicking the football, but that kicker sure knows how to lay a hit!
What a shot on Jourdan Lewis' kickoff return!
6. Speaking of Michigan's kickoff returns, Jim Harbaugh is insanely competitive, something that often works to his advantage and sometimes burns him badly
Harbaugh is building the program in his incredibly intense image and he's not going to stop because it works (nor should he). Sadly, that means that the starting defensive backfield is all on the kickoff return unit and that decision will cost Jeremy Clark his season as he was curiously blocking with a four touchdown lead when his ACL got popped. Michigan will thrive with Harbaugh's insanity, but it does come with a cost.
7. The ineptitude of Penn State's offensive line is difficult to comprehend and much more alarming that the Penn State defensive line's failures
The defensive line returned only Sickels and lost its other three members to the NFL (Austin Johnson, Carl Nassib, and Anthony Zettel). That's a big loss.
The offensive line? The current starters are the expected starters, yet they were completely dominated all afternoon by the Michigan defensive front. This makes some sense when we consider that:
- LT Brendon Mahon is a guard, playing tackle only out of necessity (Mahon was a big recruit)
- RT Andrew Nelson was a decent recruit and has played decently
- C Brian Gaia was a decent recruit
- LG Ryan Bates is a redshirt freshman who needs about 25 more pounds
- RG Derek Dowrey was a two star defensive tackle recruit who switched sides last year when Penn State was out of guards
Problem is, there are enough pieces there to form a competent unit. Yet, the Penn State offensive line has been completely incompetent for 17 games and counting. That's not good at all.
Michigan's defensive line is spectacular. Obviously Rashan Gary has the most notable pedigree, but Taco Charlton will be in an NFL camp next year, and Michigan threw three redshirt senior linemen at an overmatched offensive line. The results were predictable.
And that's before we talk about senior defensive tackle Maurice Hurst. That guy is going to play on Sundays next year and he's got a real chance to be some team's top pick. His acceleration and quickness were elite and he played with plenty of power. Extremely impressive. The subpar Nittany line had no answer for him.
8. The Harbaugh v. Franklin matchup is probably the biggest coaching advantage Michigan will have this year
It was on display early and often today, especially with Harbaugh coaching aggressively as a three-touchdown home favorite and Franklin cowering at the opportunity to make moves.
9. I was very interested to see what Wilton Speight had to offer, but I came away very unimpressed
As I mentioned above, Speight's pocket was remarkably clean all game. I cannot remember a single designed rollout from the Wolverines. Harbaugh ran a simple offensive with a traditional pocket passer and dared the Penn State defense to get home. They never did.
Speight's running ability and, more particularly, his feel for when to tuck the ball and run was surprisingly strong.
But the passing itself? It was poor. He missed numerous open receivers and may have actually missed every throw he attempted while throwing on the run. He somehow managed to throw 13 incompletions without being hit once. That should be tough, especially given that he only attempted one downfield pass.
I'll be surprised if Speight doesn't cost Michigan a game at some point this season with his lacking arm strength and hitchy delivery that gets the ball out very slowly. His lack of pop was noticeable in pre-game warmups, especially compared to the rockets from John O'Korn, and that soft-tossing delivery carried over into the game.
Then again, Jake Rudock looked poor for two months last year and then turned it on in a big way. Who knows?
As for Trace McSorley, I don't know if he's any good and I likely won't find out anytime soon. He's just a guy running for his life.
10. Saquon Barkley is a treat
Seriously. He's a star. What a superb back.
As my cousin pointed out, Barkley had 132% of Penn State's total offense in the first half (not a typo). He was the vast majority of Penn State's passing and rushing offenses. He made a little something out of nothing, and a lot out of a little something. Just a special player. I hope he stays healthy for the next year and a half before enjoying a long NFL career.
11. Also a treat: Penn State punter Blake Gillikin
Yes, Jabrill Peppers enjoyed an electrifying 53-yard punt return of Gillikin's first punt (on which Peppers appeared to have been tackled by a turf monster), but Gillikin's kick was amazing. Penn State was on their own 1, so Gillikin had to kick a one-step punt. The play is almost always for the punter to boom the deepest kick he can and hope that the coverage unit does a decent job. What did Gillikin do? Hit a 61-yard one-step punt. Wowzers. His subsequent punts?
- 46-yard punt, 1-yard return (Peppers caught as he ran out of bounds)
- 44-yard punt, no return
- 35-yard punt, no return (out of bounds at the 20)
- 41-yard punt, no return (downed at the 8)
- 43-yard punt, no return
It sucks when your punter is the star of the game, but hey, it beats the crap out of your punter sucking, too. Gillikin was a sight to behold.
12. Has any player ever made a better choice to go pro than Christian Hackenberg did last year?
In the immediate aftermath of the departures of left tackle Donovan Smith and head coach Bill O'Brien, Penn State's ineptitude along the offensive line reached a season-killing level last year in week one when the Lions allowed ten sacks to Temple. Simply put, the unit hasn't gotten any better. Had Hackenberg stuck around for another year, he only would have dropped further in the draft. It wasn't ideal, but getting out when he could looks prescient for Hackenberg.
13. I don't think there is a player on the Penn State roster who will play a college football game in January in the future
It's really tough to have much of anything in the way of hope for a program that is so sloppy. I'm sympathetic to the fact that the decimated 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes are severely negatively impacting the program at this point. But the 2014 class was a deep and solid class (ranked 25th) that features this team's juniors and redshirt sophomores, and the 2015 class has a number of current contributors. The problem is obvious, though: there weren't impact line recruits on either side of the ball in those classes with the exception of colossal whiff Paris Palmer, and the true freshman linemen who are big enough to play somehow haven't been able to wrestle playing time away from the current abominable linemen. That doesn't speak well for the future.
Add it all up and with Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State all still looking strong (save for Tyler O'Connor), Penn State will have a very difficult time winning more than seven games for years. That won't get it done. When another coaching change gets factored in, it could be well into the next decade before Penn State plays another meaningful January game. Gulp.
14. A quick note on the officials
The targeting call was awful. As bad as you'll see.
I'm still not sure what the refs saw in not overturning Harbaugh's challenged spot on McSorley's fourth quarter keeper. McSorley was about 3/4 of a yard short, yet the refs allowed the spot to stand. What's the point of review if such an obvious errors cannot be corrected?
Michigan fans around me wanted Christian Campbell to be called for pass interference on Speight's deep wheel to Jehu Chesson in the fourth quarter, but the no-call was correct. Paradoxically, Campbell was far enough out of position to continue running toward Chesson, throw up his arm, and deflect the ball away all before making contact with Chesson. He was way out of position, but just close enough to be able to recover. Sports, man. Of course, Karan Higdon ran for a 40-yard touchdown on the next play, so it didn't much impact the outcome.
I couldn't believe the refs didn't flag Malik Golden for a late hit on Ty Isaac near the end of the game when Golden hit Isaac three steps after Isaac went out of bounds. Perhaps they didn't care much at that point. Again, no impact on the outcome.
Finally, I was very surprised that Michigan cornerback Channing Stribling wasn't called for unsportsmanlike conduct after a nice third down pass breakup against Chris Godwin. McSorley threw a fade toward Godwin, who got his hands on the ball before Stribling fought with him, forcing the ball out. As Godwin lay on the ground, Stribling stood over top of him and made repeated throat-slashing gestures. I didn't think guys could get away with that anymore. No sour grapes here - I was just surprised.
15. Michigan once again has a stable of running backs
They were very impressive on the whole, led by De'Veon Smith's vision and Ty Isaac's overall solid (if bizarrely underwhelming) package. Higdon looked solid, too, and Chris Evans didn't look bad, though he was the least impressive of the quartet.
A stable is much better than a stars-and-scrubs approach at RB.
16. Penn State players never seemed all that motivated or excited to be playing in the game
They came out of the tunnel flat, which is never a good sign. Guys didn't seem excited for each other when somebody made a good play.
Perhaps most damning to me was a play in the mid-fourth quarter. McSorley threw a quick hitter to tight end Mike Gesicki on an arrow route on a 4th-and-1 play. Gesicki caught the ball at the line to gain, but fought Dymonte Thomas for an extra two yards to secure the first down. After the play, Gesicki ran to the sideline where he was greeted by...nobody? Not a single player or coach even gave him so much as a tap on the butt or shoulder. Even in a blowout, I expected to a minimal level of enthusiasm for an inspired play by a teammate.
Perhaps that will end up being the lasting image of the James Franklin era instead? I don't know. It doesn't much matter. I just hope that the era doesn't extend beyond this November.
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