Thank God for football.
Simply put, the 2020 Penn State football season wasn't very fun. For most of 2020, it appeared as though the season wouldn't even happen. When it finally did, Penn State lost star running back Journey Brown to a hear condition before the season began, watched #2 running back Noah Cain go down for the season on the opening drive, suffered a devastating road loss to Indiana -- complete with a brain fart for the ages as preseason fourth-string running back Devyn Ford ran for a touchdown instead of running out the clock at the end of regulation -- was blasted by Ohio State at home, then was blasted by Maryland at home before dropping road tilts at Nebraska and Iowa. Along the way, two-year starting quarterback Sean Clifford lost his job although his replacement, Will Levis, didn't play any better.
Nittany finally won a game just after Thanksgiving -- let that sentence sink in -- and ripped off four straight victories by double digits to close out the season. Coach James Franklin somehow parlayed that into an elite recruiting haul in the Class of 2022, a class that is currently ranked first in the nation although it will realistically fall in the 8-12 range assuming that all of the verbal recruits sign. Thankfully, one bad year didn't crush the program.
Which brings us to the 2021 season. Penn State needs a good year to keep the recruits on board and, more importantly, to prove that the 2020 season was an anomaly. Will the team be able to do that? To an extent, yes. To an extent, no. And goodness gracious, there's a lot of risk here. Here's a look at the team, position-by-position, on the eve of the 2021 season. Meaningful names for casual fans to know are in bold.
Quarterback
This room was on track to have four or even five scholarship arms this year. Then, backup Will Levis bolted to Kentucky to start for the Wildcats and Micah Bowens surprisingly bolted for Oklahoma to backup Spencer Rattler. Penn State struck out in the entry into the Transfer Portal, leaving the roster with Sean Clifford, third-year redshirt freshman Ta'Quan Roberson, and true freshman Christian Veilleux, whose senior season was canceled. If Clifford gets hurt, woo boy, it could get seriously ugly in a hurry. If Clifford stays healthy, he could have a big year in new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich's offense. I'm a Clifford fan, perhaps because I saw his last excellent performance in the 2019 Whiteout against Michigan. He has surprisingly good speed and plenty of arm. In Clifford, Penn State has enough at quarterback to have a strong season, but without a backup who is experienced or has a high ceiling, the risk here is immense. Clifford absolutely cannot miss significant time, whether with an injury or a positive COVID test.
Offensive Line
Newish offensive line coach Phil Trautwein has recruited like a big-time position coach. He also got stud LT Rasheed Walker to return for another year. That's a huge win. The tackles should both be a strength with Walker on the left side and the mammoth Caedan Wallace on the right side. Fifth-year returning starter Mike Miranda moves to center and should provide stability on the interior. The guard spots aren't as solid, but there are bodies. Projected RG Juice Scruggs is a nice story, having recovered from a car accident that cost him a season and ripped 30+ pounds from his body. The LG spot remains an ongoing competition between Lackawana transfer Anthony Whigan and Harvard grad transfer Eric Wilson; surprisingly, longtime swingman Des Holmes is on the outside looking in. The practical impact of the previous few sentences is that there are plenty of starting caliber options on the line. There's only one Walker, so Penn State will be in a tough spot if he misses time. On the whole, however, this group should be good and could be very good.
Running Back
This room is unfair. Ja'Juan Seider's recruiting prowess has reached the ludicrous zone. The top five options in this room are four four-star backs in Noah Cain, Keyvone Lee, Devyn Ford, and Caziah Holmes with former Baylor starter John Lovett thrown in because...well, I have no idea why Lovett transferred to Penn State of all spots. Cain has looked like a worthy successor to the mantle established by Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, and Journey Brown, but he hasn't been healthy since October 2019. The depth is there to absorb another injury to Cain, but it sure would be more fun to actually watch Cain play. Regardless, running back won't be the problem for the 2021 Nittany Lions.
Tight End
Tight end won't be a problem either. The riches aren't quite the same level of embarrassing here, but Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson come into 2021 with pedigree, production, and projection. Despite suffering a shoulder injury at the end of his prep career, Johnson looks every bit like the top-100 prospect he was, yet Strange looked just as good. The depth here isn't ideal with converted quarterback Tyler Warren next on the depth chart, but with two plus starters at the top, complaining about Warren is whining.
It's incredible that Penn State could lose a second-round draftee from this room in Pat Freiermuth, yet still be so loaded here. This must be what it feels like to be an Alabama/Clemson/Ohio State fan at every spot.
Wide Receivers
Here's an interesting group! Jahan Dotson returns for a final season, and after entering college running his 40 in the 4.5s, Dotson reportedly clocked a 4.33 this spring. Dotson also led the Big Ten in yards and touchdowns in 2020, so he figures to be a steady WR1 for this team. The clear WR2 is Parker Washington, a tank of a slot receiver with great hands, great routes, and fantastic YAC ability.
But after Dotson and Washington? There's a big pile of question marks. Keandre Lambert-Smith has the body and pedigree to win the job, but he largely disappointed in 2020. If he takes a modest step ahead, he's a strong option in the WR3 spot. Unfortunately, Lambert-Smith likely needs to step into that role because the veterans in the room, Daniel George and Cam Suillivan-Brown, have both proved incapable of making meaningful contributions and Lackawana transfer Norval Black looks like a whiff. That means that the only other options for filling out the depth chart are from a batch of projectable redshirt freshmen or a pair of polished true freshman. My guess is that Clifford's younger brother, Liam, carves out a halfway meaningful role for himself. Unfortunately, the far-and-away top receiver recruit, Lonnie White, opted to join the Pittsburgh Pirates when the ballclub dangled seven figures in front of him (understandably so). This room has a bright future and a strong present, but the depth pieces at receiver likely aren't ready to play big roles should such a need arise.
Defensive End
Penn State has enjoyed an incredible run of success at defensive end. The starters over the past few years all heard their names called on draft day: Shareef Miller (4th round in 2019), Yetur Gross-Matos (2nd round in 2020), Jayson Oweh (1st round in 2021), and Shaka Toney (7th round in 2021). Last year's two-deep featured Oweh, Toney, senior Shane Simmons, and lanky sophomore Adisa Isaac.
Well, it's now 2021. Oweh and Toney are in the NFL, Simmons retired before transferring to Marshall, and Isaac suffered a season-ending injury this summer. So who is the new two-deep? There's senior Arnold Ebiketie, a Temple transfer, and a collection of damaged goods. Former four-star Nick Tarburton has suffered a gaggle of injuries during his career, but he's now expected to start. Gulp. Oversized redshirt freshmen Amin Vanover and Smith Vilbert will have to play genuine snaps. The depth is so lacking that senior linebacker Jesse Luketa spent most of fall camp practicing with the DEs. That's far from ideal. If the depth is tested, here's hoping that Zuriah Fisher ends up forcing his way onto the field given his incredible athleticism.
If the Penn State defense underwhelms in 2021, it will almost certainly be because the defensive ends can't get the job done. Wisconsin will obviously present a beefy test to kick off the season.
Defensive Tackle
Now that's more like it. Duke grad transfer Derrick Tangelo will join with returning stud PJ Mustipher to form a great starting tandem. Veterans Fred Hansard and Aeneas Hawkins provide useful, experienced depth. Then, there are seven DTs with freshman eligibility; four are four-stars while the remaining three are three-stars. There are obviously plenty of bodies here!
Cornerbacks
You may have expected to see the linebackers next, but in order to fully understand the goings on in the back seven, it's essential to address the corners first. Simply put, There's way too much talent in this room given the amount of playing time. First, Tariq Castro-Fields took advantage of his extra year of eligibility and returns for another year of starting. Then, Joey Porter Jr. emerged as a stud in year two. This after Keaton Ellis and Marquis Wilson both earned starter-level reps as freshmen in 2019. Then, South Carolina starter Johnny Dixon transferred to Penn State this offseason. And finally, true freshman Kalen King arrived from Detroit and blew the coaches away, earning his way into expected meaningful reps this year.
Add it all up and Ellis moved to safety permanently while Wilson has flirted with a two-way role. In any event, the cornerback group should be in great shape.
Safeties
Penn State's safeties has regularly underwhelmed since Marcus Allen headed off to the Steelers. 2021 could provide a one-year reprieve. A pair of Lackawanna transfers, Jaquan Brisker and Ji'Ayir Brown, are expected to start. Brown is a nice story. Brisker, on the other hand, is a top prospect and an AP preseason second-team All American. The impact of Brisker's star turn and Brown's is that longtime reserve Jonathan Sutherland has spent most of camp at the Sam linebacker spot. There are four four-stars with freshman eligibility, but the hope and expectation is that they'll provide unneeded depth.
Linebackers
This group doesn't have great depth, but the starting unit is idyllic. Beginning the season with Brandon Smith at the Will and Curtis Jacobs at the Sam, redshirt junior Ellis Brooks will look unathletic at the Mike despite having a solid career to date. Smith and Jacobs both come with elite, top-50 pedigrees and look ready to make plays. The pipeline is alarmingly dry in terms of athletes after Smith and Jacobs. But for 2021, there's plenty to like.
Specialists
As always, Penn State's kicking game should be a strength. Jordan Stout is back to put kickoffs through the endzone, attempt the occasional long field goal, and be an average punter. Jake Pinegar has routinely underwhelmed me, but he gets the job done as a placekicker. The return game is a mystery.
Coaches
James Franklin is an incredible program CEO, a seemingly great human being, and a plus recruiter. Unfortunately, JFF's time to shine is coming to an end. Now, he has to coach on Saturdays again which means the return of baffling timeouts, surprising disorganization, and generally coaching like a favorite in all situations, regardless of opponent, score, and clock. Thank God Mark Dantonio isn't around anymore to take advantage of JFF. Franklin will keep the team focused and playing hard; there's a lot to be said for that. Come January, Franklin can return to his CEO role to keep the program humming along.
Beyond Franklin, the position coaches merit intrigue, especially new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich who arrived following an extended run as OC at Oklahoma State then one year apiece as Ohio State's QB coach and Texas' OC. Yurcich's offense probably can't be worse than former OC Kirk Ciarrocca's mess. Receivers coach Taylor Stubblefield will need to develop third and fourth receivers, and defensive line coach John Scott Jr. will need to prove his chops immediately given the hole at defensive end.
Schedule
Does any team have a tougher trio of road games than Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa? (FWIW: possibly Florida State, who has roadies against North Carolina, Florida, and Clemson...but you get the point. Alabama would be there with trips to Gainesville and College Station, but neutral site games are horse pucky, so the Miami contest doesn't count). The home schedule is no slouch either with visits from Auburn, Michigan, and Indiana. The September slate is brutal with Wisconsin, reigning MAC champion Ball State (who returns 18 starters), and Auburn right out of the gate. If the team gets off to a rocky start, things could implode.
Recruiting
You have to enjoy recruiting when it's going well. And my goodness, it is going really well right now. Not Ohio State/Clemson/Alabama/Georgia really well, but right behind those teams. Penn State has verbals from 14 four-star prospects: four top-100 prospects, four more in the 101-200 range, five more in the 201-300 range, and one more ranked outside of the top 300. The next five recruits are ranked inside the top-500. It's an absolutely wonderful class. Basically the only nugget of bad news to afflict the class thus far was the defection of EDGE Tyrese Fearbry, but Penn State remains in the mix for Fearbry along with Missouri-based EDGE DJ Wesolak.
Post-season
Following the season, the following players will head off to the NFL:
2nd Round
LT Rasheed Walker
WR Jahan Dotson
CB Joey Porter Jr.
3rd Round
S Jaquan Brisker
4th Round
RB Noah Cain
5th Round
DT PJ Mustipher
6th Round
CB Tariq Castro-Fields
DT Derrick Tangelo
7th Round
DE Arnold Ebiketie
Porter Jr. is the only mildly surprising pick above, but if he peaks this year, he has the physique, style of play, and pedigree to hear his name called early. Not featured: Brandon Smith. If Smith goes pro, Penn State will need to hit the portal hard to fill out the linebacker room.
And QB Sean Clifford returns for his sixth year of eligibility and fourth year as the starting quarterback in 2022 with James Franklin hoping against all hope that Drew Allar or perhaps even Beau Pribula is ready to start as a redshirt freshman in 2023 unless the Transfer Portal offers up a one-year bridge starter. Hey, Kyle McCord, if you get squeezed out by CJ Stroud and Quinn Ewers, PA would love to have you back.
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(I wrote this section on Tuesday August 31. It would've looked pretty funny had Ohio State failed to complete their comeback in Minneapolis last night!)
Now, briefly, my picks for the Big Ten as a whole. In prior years, I've picked every game. This year, I'm looking at schedules for teams and making a general pick without ensuring that the records all tie out with each other. Oh well.
East
- Ohio State (12-0, 9-0). The Buckeyes are losing a ton of talent...but replacing that talent with a ton of talent. Nowhere is that truer than at quarterback where new Bears
starterdraftee Justin Fields is being replaced by 5* C.J. Stroud, who beat out fellow 5* January enrollee Kyle McCord and August enrollee and new millionaire 5* Quinn Ewers. Good grief. A visit from Oregon in Week 2 and a mid-October trip to Bloomington are the only remotely challenging contests. There's just too much talent here. It's a huge bummer that Ohio State doesn't have to play Wisconsin or Iowa during the regular season. - Michigan (9-3, 6-3). The schedule sets up well for Michigan this year. The Week 2 game against Washington will provide a good barometer. If the Wolverines pull out a win there, they'll be 4-0 heading to Madison in October. Even if they lose to the Badgers, Michigan should run through Nebraska, Northwestern, and Michigan State, entering November at 7-1 before facing Indiana, Penn State, and Ohio State down the stretch. Will there be a bunch of helium entering the season's final month? Or will Michigan actually reenter the national picture? The bet here is that it's mostly helium for a good but not great team.
- Indiana (8-4, 6-3). Indiana is going to be seriously beat up at the midpoint of their season. Road games at Iowa and Penn State with a home date against Cincinnati will test the Hoosiers by the first week of October. Will Penix stay healthy through that slog? If so, it could be a special year. If not, it could be a long one.
- Penn State (8-4, 5-4). I think that Penn State is going to be quite good this season. Unfortunately, the opening two-thirds of the schedule is a bloodbath. September features an opener in Madison and a Whiteout visit from Auburn before a slog in October: Indiana at home and trips to Iowa City and Columbus. However, November offers the chance to go on a real run and end the season on a high note.
- Michigan State (4-8, 2-7). I'm on the record as being wildly anti-Mel Tucker. He was the worst defensive coordinator in Chicago Bears history, something for which I'll never forgive him. I expect that Sparty will suffer a pair of losses in their September road games against Northwestern and Miami. If so, this season could tumble into the darkness with Ohio State and Penn State waiting at the end.
- Rutgers (4-8, 2-7). Greg Schiano should have Rutgers playing scrappy ball again. The roster isn't good. But there are enough mediocre opponents that he'll find some wins.
- Maryland (3-9, 1-8). Speaking of brutal schedules. Maryland opens the year as a home underdog against West Virginia and their Big Ten opener is the dreaded Friday night road game in the Central Time Zone. I think that Maryland will beat Howard and Kent State...then win one game between October and November. Ouch. There's a stunning amount of young talent on this roster, but the staff has a tough task getting it to play up in games.
West
- Wisconsin (10-2, 8-1). Playing Penn State, Notre Dame (in Chicago), and Michigan in their first four games, the Badgers should know plenty by the time the leaves change colors. I think that Notre Dame will get the better of Wisconsin, but they'll acquit themselves well throughout the rest of their schedule. Here's hoping they lose their opener!
- Iowa (9-3, 7-2). Iowa looks good. The schedule gets off to a terribly difficult start with Indiana and Iowa State in Weeks 1 and 2. After that, they'll get hot and roll for a while, especially against their poo-poo platter of a schedule in November.
- Northwestern (7-5, 4-5). I don't think that Northwestern looks all that good this year, and against a schedule with a tough non-conference opponent and a reasonable crossover slate, they'd be a four- or five-win team. But they play Indiana State, Duke, and Ohio in the non-Big Ten schedule and Michigan, Michigan State, and Rutgers from the East. Pat Fitzgerald should find a way to scratch out a few extra wins. If they're a little better than I expect, this could be a nine-win season thanks for the schedule makers.
- Minnesota (6-6, 3-6). Minnesota will get whooped in Week 1, then rip off a great stretch through their early November home date against Illinois. Then, they get @ Iowa, @ Indiana, and Wisconsin to stumble to 6-6 at the finish line.
- Illinois (4-8, 2-7). Is Bret Bielema good again? Nah. You only get to play Nebraska once.
- Nebraska (3-9, 1-8). I figured that Nebraska would enjoy a nice growth year in 2021. After seeing their opener against Illinois, I'm convinced that this is very, very wrong. It's hard to see Scott Frost surviving another debacle.
- Purdue (2-10, 1-8). David Bell is a lonely, lonely man. This roster is a mess. Hard to believe that Jeff Brohm was one of the hottest names in coaching just a few short years ago.
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