College football is underway. It's really fall. But it's not really fall until the Bears take the field. That will happen on Sunday afternoon when the Bears host the Titans to kick off the Caleb Williams era. In advance of Sunday's contest, here's a look at the 2024 Bears with NFL picks to follow.
Coaching
Woof. Whereas Penn State boss James Franklin has done a stellar job hiring staffs over his decade at the helm, the same cannot be said for Matt Eberflus during his tenure as Bears head coach. Of the 19 members of Eberflus' initial on-field coaching staff in 2022, only seven remain in his third season (TE coach Jim Dray, OL coach Chris Morgan, DL coach Travis Smith, LB coach Dave Borgonzi, safeties coach Andre Curtis, special teams coordinator Richard Hightower, and assistant special teams coordinator Carlos Polk). Notably, none of the coaches who left did so for a promotion, and multiple coaches from the 2023 staff left the building with law enforcement involved (defensive coordinator Alan Williams and RB coach David Walker).
Eberflus has never come across as a particularly inspiring leader. Instead, he leaves most Bears fans saying "meh" when he speaks. His showing on "Hard Knocks" did him no favors in my eyes. It was especially striking how regularly Eberflus himself seemed to be a step behind new QB Caleb Williams.
Thankfully, as Franklin himself has shown over the years, hiring a good staff can cover up many of the sins of the head coach, and there's reason to think that Eberflus has significantly upgraded his coordinator positions, albeit because the floor established by DC Williams and OC Luke Getsy was dumbfoundingly low. In particular, new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron found himself in need of a new job through no fault of his own; his Seattle offenses were productive, but the end of Pete Carroll's tenure with the Seahawks meant a sea change for that organization. There's good reason for hope with Waldron running the offense. New defensive coordinator Eric Washington doesn't have the same success at the NFL level, but he does have extensive experience as a DL coach and two years of coordinator experience with Carolina. There's enough to like here, especially considering that the retained position coaches on defense have largely overseen vast improvements within their units.
In the end, I think Eberflus is a net negative as the head man, a coach more likely to cost his team a game over the course of a season than to steal one. I desperately hope that he proves me wrong.
Offense
Oh boy. This is fun. Instead of me dreaming on a leap from Justin Fields, the Bears now have a #1 overall pick at QB and one with an elite pedigree to boot. Caleb Williams was an ultra-elite recruit coming out of Gonzaga High in DC, then a freshman superstar at Oklahoma, then a Heisman-winning sophomore at USC, and then still a superstar for a wobbly USC team as a junior. He was the consensus #1 pick in the 2024 Draft, and he will now be tasked with playing the role of franchise savior. Williams has been groomed for this for nearly his entire life. If anyone can do it, it's Williams. As a fan, I'm really looking forward to watching him create. As someone who watches a lot of football, I'm confused because he looks like a superstar QB, yet he plays for the Bears.
Thankfully, Williams has an elite receiving group around him to ease his transition to the NFL. DJ Moore is a true #1 WR. So is Keenan Allen. And Rome Odunze was a steal at #9 in the Draft, suggesting that he has #1 WR potential. It's about as soft a landing as possible. Tyler Scott looks fine as a #4.
The tight end spot got a big influx of talent when Gerald Everett accepted the #2 TE gig. I remain lukewarm on Cole Kmet as a plus TE; he simply drops too many easy balls, but he's not bad. Everett, however, is a decent, low-end #1 TE...so he's a huge plus as a #2. The TE group will desperately need a draftee in 2025, but that's an issue for another year. This year, the Kmet-Everett combo offers lots of mismatch opportunities. Marcedes Lewis will block and catch three passes on the year, two of them for touchdowns.
The running back room lacks a big ceiling, but the depth is tremendous, yielding a very high floor. I hated the D'Andre Swift signing; hopefully he impresses, especially as a pass catcher. If he doesn't, the drop off shouldn't be big as both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson have starter-level experience. Most importantly, though, is the presence of Swiss Army knife Velus Jones in the RB room. Most Bears fans hate Jones for what he isn't: he isn't a WR, he isn't a good value as a 3rd round pick, and he isn't a punt returner. It would be great if he was those things. However, I love Jones for what he is: a versatile, explosive threat with the ball in his hands, an exciting kick returner with the chance to shine under the new rules, and a likely four-phase special teams contributor. That's a really useful player, even if he's bad value at #71 in the 2022 Draft.
The offensive line offers a lot of promise, but there are admittedly a lot of variables in play here. Braxton Jones looks like an average LT and Darnell Wright should be at least an average RT, to the bookends are in good shape. OT depth, however, is a massive concern, especially to start the year. While Kiran Amegadjie projects as a long-term potential LT and Larry Borom comes with lots of experience, neither figures to be a viable help in the early going. Amegadjie is still working back from a significant quad injury suffered at Yale, and Borom is both (i) more of a guard, and (ii) on Injured Reserve. The interior OL has more options, but a much, much lower floor among the starters. Teven Jenkins is a star at LG...when he's on the field. Nate Davis might be a solid RG...when he's on the field. Ryan Bates could be a decent starting C...when he's on the field. All three have struggled with injuries, and the depth options aren't terribly inspiring. Backup C Coleman Shelton was a poor starter for the Rams last year, and both Matt Pryor and Bill Murray look like roster fodder at guard. The starting OL could be an average unit, but it's hard to see a higher ceiling whereas it's easy to see a lower floor.
Defense
It all starts up front on the defense...because that's where the big questions are. Montez Sweat is a fringe star at DE who proved to be an idyllic fit in the Eberflus defense after arriving from Washington last year. His health is paramount to the team's success. The other DEs are more confusing. Jake Martin is on IR, and both Daniel Hardy and Dominique Robinson barely made the roster. That means the Bears are looking to DeMarcus Walker, Darrell Taylor, and/or Austin Booker to produce opposite Sweat. Walker looks like a tweener who remains best suited for an interior role on third down. Taylor was available for a 6th round pick two weeks ago, so expecting a big impact seems foolish. So, it all comes down to Booker. I loved Booker in the Draft and am ecstatic that he's a Bear. However, that's largely because I think Booker can be a plus starter in 2026 and an average starter as soon as 2025 after he adds 15+ pounds to his 245-lbs. frame. He can probably contribute in a limited role in 2024, but the Bears might need him to play starter reps. *gulp*
The interior DL is very thin. Chris Williams was available for the equivalent of a 6th round pick two weeks ago (sound familiar?), so he shouldn't be counted on to play a big role. That puts big pressure on Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, and Zacch Pickens. Unfortunately, Pickens is banged up to start the year, and, even when healthy, he seems better suited to play the three technique spot. That's unfortunate because Pickens simply isn't as good as Dexter. There's incredible pressure on Dexter to take a big step and for Billings to play a ton of reps as the one technique given the lack of other options on the roster. If the Bears can successfully force opposing teams into obvious passing situations, I expect to see Walker and possibly even Taylor slide inside, taking some of the burden off of Billings in particular.
(Yes, it's funny that Billings is listed at 311 while Dexter is listed at *drumroll* 312. They carry their weight much, much differently.)
If the front four can produce at even an average rate, the defense has a chance to be a real strength. That starts at the second level, where T.J. Edwards was a star in 2023. Tremaine Edmunds retains the much higher ceiling even after a wobbly debut; thankfully, Edmunds made a handful of big plays and hopefully he can blossom in his second year in the system. At just 26, he should have plenty left in the tank. When a third LB is necessary, third-year man Jack Sanborn offers plenty. Second-year man Noah Sewell needs to get healthy. If he can do so, he should be able to push Sanborn for reps this year.
The biggest beneficiary of improved DL play, however, would be the secondary. This unit features a robust collection of experienced yet still young talent, and a little more help up front could help them reach their stratospheric ceiling. CB1 Jaylon Johnson is among the NFL's best, all while being one of five Bears DBs expected to play starter-level reps at age 25 or younger this year. He is joined in that regard by emerging leader S Jaquan Brisker, CB2 Tyrique Stevenson, CB3 Terell Smith, and nickel spiderman Kyler Gordon. Old man Kevin Byard replaces old man Eddie Jackson. The Bears surely hope that they get some semblance of the 2021 First-Team All-Pro version of Byard and not the 2023 version that looked dangerously close to being washed. The depth options here (CBs Josh Blackwell and Elijah Hicks; safeties Jaylon Jones and Jonathan Owens) are uninspiring with very low ceilings, but the big six are incredibly athletic and exciting.
It's quite confusing to see a Bears roster built to be strong in the back seven at the expense of the defensive line. Perhaps that's the new way to do things? It still looks strange to this Bears fan.
Special Teams
Cairo Santos lacks a big leg, but he has been extremely accurate. Long snapper could be a problem with Patrick Scales on IR. Thankfully, if the long snapper can get the ball to new punter Tory Taylor, the Aussie can shine as the true weapon he is.
The punt return game looks poor. Thankfully, the kick return game has a chance to be quite good if Jones can lead the way.
Schedule
Before making a season pick, here's the Bears' schedule for 2024:
- Tennessee
- @ Houston (Sunday Night Football)
- @ Indianapolis
- Los Angeles Rams
- Carolina
- Jacksonville (London)
- BYE
- @ Washington
- @ Arizona
- New England
- Green Bay
- Minnesota
- @ Detroit (Thanksgiving)
- @ San Francisco
- @ Minnesota (Monday Night Football)
- Detroit
- Seattle (Thursday Night Football)
- @ Green Bay
Well. That's definitely a last-place schedule. I'm going to look at it by month.
September (2-2)
I don't like the opening day matchup. I think that Tennessee is good and, potentially, very good. Their pass rush will give the Bears trouble and QBs drafted #1 overall haven't won in their debuts for 15 straight games. So, the nightmare comes true: the Bears lose their opener in a close game (let's say L 23-17), then get handled by a superior Texans team in Houston (L 30-13) to fall to 0-2. Yikes. But never fear: Williams secures his first win with a strong showing in Indianapolis (W 27-20) and then lights up the Rams to push the team to .500 (W 38-13).
October (2-1)
October shapes up beautifully, especially if the Bears can reach it at 2-2 or better. The Bears should overwhelm Carolina (W 24-10), though I think they'll drop a close one in London to the Jaguars (L 28-24). The bye comes at a nice time, and the team gets back over .500 with a win in Washington (W 21-18).
November (2-3)
November is moving time. The Bears struggle and fall in a trip to Arizona (L 29-14), dropping to 4-4. Following the loss, GM Ryan Poles decides to feed his limping pass rush by adding a piece before the trade deadline. The biggest fish that might become available as studs from struggling teams -- Las Vegas' Maxx Crosby, Tennessee's Harold Landry, Los Angeles' Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, and New Orleans' Cam Jordan -- all come with significant salary cap complications that likely render a deal unfeasible. Instead, I think that Poles hunts for one of these five, ranging from my least favorite to my favorite target:
- Arden Key (TEN)
- I'm not sure if Key is a huge addition as he's likely still a specialist.
- Cost: 6th
- Chase Young (NO)
- Young is likely a rental again. The ceiling probably isn't huge anymore and the void years in his contract could prohibit a deal; I think the Bears would have to eat his future cap charges, making a deal untenable.
- Cost: 5th
- Jadeveon Clowney (CAR)
- Clowney looks like a good fit.
- Cost: 5th
- Tyree Wilson (LV)
- This is a bet on Wilson's pedigree and not his production to date. Crazy high ceiling still.
- Cost: 3rd
- Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN)
- I really like Van Ginkel and would've loved him this spring.
- Cost: 5th
Following the trade, the Bears recover with a rousing win over New England at home (W 30-20). Then Green Bay comes to town. Barf. A Packers blowout leads to some soul searching (L 37-10). Thankfully, the woeful Vikings come to town and prove to be the desired fix (W 24-9). Then, it's time for Thanksgiving in Detroit against the surging Lions. That goes poorly (L 28-16).
December (2-2)
The Bears entire December at 6-6, and a trip to San Francisco does them no favors as the 49ers roll (L 30-10). Minnesota remains bad, so despite a primetime trip, the Bears prevail on the road (W 20-14). The Lions have perennially struggled in Chicago, and that's especially true in December with Jared Goff at QB. However, I think that this year is different for Detroit, and the Lions sweep the Bears with a close win (L 29-27), dropping the Bears to 7-8. The Bears stay alive with a big win over Seattle on a quick week (W 31-23) to reach 8-8 and head into their finale with a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
January (0-1)
Unfortunately, that finale is a trip to Green Bay. Those don't go well. The Packers win big (L 34-13) to win the NFC North and eliminate the Bears. Yuck. Yuck yuck yuck.
In the aftermath of an 8-9 season with this roster, Eberflus should be shown the door. Will he be fired or not? I don't know.
Of course, the rest of the NFL will play this year, too. Here are my picks by team with playoff teams in bold.
NFC East
Dallas 11-6
Philadelphia 10-7
New York Giants 6-11
Washington 4-13
NFC North
Green Bay 12-5
Detroit 12-5
Chicago 8-9
Minnesota 5-12
NFC South
Atlanta 10-7
Tampa Bay 7-10
New Orleans 7-10
Carolina 5-12
NFC West
San Francisco 13-4
Arizona 10-7
Los Angeles Rams 8-9
Seattle 7-10
AFC East
Buffalo 12-5
New York Jets 10-7
Miami 9-8
New England 4-13
AFC North
Baltimore 11-6
Pittsburgh 9-8
Cleveland 9-8
Cincinnati 8-9
AFC South
Tennessee 11-6
Houston 10-7
Jacksonville 8-9
Indianapolis 7-10
AFC West
Kansas City 13-4
Los Angeles Chargers 9-8
Las Vegas 5-12
Denver 2-15
NFL Playoffs
Pretty straightforward: winners are in bold.
Wild Card
#7 Arizona @ #2 Green Bay
#6 Philadelphia @ #3 Dallas
#4 Detroit @ #5 Atlanta
#7 Pittsburgh @ #2 Buffalo
#6 New York Jets @ #3 Tennessee
#5 Houston @ #4 Baltimore
Divisional
#4 Detroit @ #1 San Francisco
#3 Dallas @ #2 Green Bay
#6 New York Jets @ #1 Kansas City
#4 Baltimore @ #2 Buffalo
Conference Championships
#2 Green Bay @ #1 San Francisco
#2 Buffalo @ #1 Kansas City
Super Bowl
Kansas City over Green Bay
2025 NFL Draft
If the season plays out this way, the Bears will end up with approximately the following picks in the first three rounds, depending on tiebreakers: #13, #37 (from Carolina), #46, and #77. Here are my very early preferred targets at each spot:
- #13
- Georgia DE Mykel Williams
- Former Georgia DE Leonard Floyd never really got big enough to blossom with the Bears. Williams has no such problem. He's plenty big and would be the dream of DeMarcus Walker actually realized.
- Michigan DT Kenneth Grant
- Grant is a freak. He shouldn't be quick enough to be a plausible 3T at 340 pounds, but he is. I still think he'd be preferably as an additional rusher from a 1T spot next to Dexter. I'll never forget him running down Kaytron Allen last year.
- Penn State DE Abdul Carter
- It's early in the experiment, but the sky is the limit for this premium athlete.
- Michigan TE Colston Loveland
- This would be fun.
- LSU OT Will Campbell
- But only if Braxton Jones truly flops.
- Kentucky DT Deone Walker
- I don't think Walker is quick enough, but if the staff thinks he could shed 20 pounds, get into the 320s, and quicken up? I'd be interested.
- #36 and #45
- Oregon WR Evan Stewart
- He could really rocket up this board.
- Oklahoma S Billy Bowman Jr.
- Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa
- Alabama LG Tyler Booker
- The futures of Teven Jenkins and Nate Davis are in flux. I'd much prefer Booker if he was a C.
- Ohio State DE JT Tuimoloau
- Ohio State DE Jack Sawyer
- Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka
- Iowa CB Sebastian Castro
- Cincinnati DT Dontay Corleone
- He's got good quickness and a nice motor, but I'm not sure there's enough play strength.
- #77
- Louisville DE Ashton Gillote
- Even if the Bears take a DE in the 1st or 2nd, I'd take Gillote if he makes it here.
- West Virginia LT Wyatt Milum
- Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins
- Iowa TE Luke Lachey
- Georgia TE Oscar Delp
- Penn State TE Tyler Warren
- USC DT Bear Alexander
- I don't like him...but he's on the list for name purposes. Obviously.
Putting together my ideal class, I'd like to see this:
- #13: Georgia DE Mykel Williams
- #36: Oklahoma S Billy Bowman Jr.
- #45: Alabama LG Tyler Booker
- #77: Iowa TE Luke Lachey
This draft is a big bet on Dexter and Pickens. If they look like they can form a strong three-man group at DT with Billings, Williams is the pick and the DE group all of a sudden looks imposing with Sweat, Williams, and Booker leading the way. However, if Dexter or Pickens struggles -- and Pickens isn't looking promising these days -- then Grant might have to be the pick. If he is, finding that impact DE gets a lot tougher despite the bevy of quality depth options in this class.
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