Thankfully, the upcoming football season looks very exciting for me. A Bears preview will follow in the coming weeks; suffice it to say, that team looks fun with the potential to push for the postseason. But that's a story for another day.
Today, I focus on the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State football is many things. A consistently solid program. A successful recruiting operation. A non-elite program. But more than anything else, they are the largest beneficiary of the new 12-team Playoff. James Franklin struggled through his first two seasons at the helm in 2014-15. In the eight years that followed, however, Franklin's teams failed to make a four-team Playoff...but they would have qualified for a 12-team Playoff six times (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023)! The team's reputation surely would look a lot different.
That's all in the past. Now, in this new era of the 12-team Playoff, Penn State will be expected to qualify with regularity. And that begins with the 2024 Nittany Lions. So, what should we expect from the 2024 squad? That's much tougher to say than in the prior two years. Here's a look at the organization.
Coaching
We have to start here this year. While Coach Franklin has a decade under his belt at Penn State, his coaching staff looks much different this year. Highly successful DC Manny Diaz took the top gig at Duke, replaced by former Indiana HC Tom Allen. Allen enjoyed some unprecedented success with the Hoosiers, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a step down, despite Allen's chops as an LB coach. Former home run hire Mike Yurcich is out as OC, replaced by former Buffalo and Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki. Enjoying success in the Big 12 is hardly a quality prediction of Big Ten success ahead, but Nittany must hope that Kotelnicki flips that script. Finally, Justin Lustig comes aboard as the new Special Teams Coordinator. He'll need to get better production from the kickers while maintaining the extreme success of Riley Thompson's punting game.
Only one position group got a new position coach (except for the LBs) with Danny O'Brien replacing Yurcich as QB coach. No pressure, Danny. There is also lots of pressure on DL Coach Deion Barnes to perform, especially with a DT rotation that has underwhelmed for years. With Chop Robinson (21st overall) and Adisa Isaac (93rd overall) both off to the NFL, the DE group is much lighter than in year's past...but Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Amin Vanover, and Jameial Lyons bring plenty of pop on the edge. Barnes needs to get the DTs to play up.
Offense
Obviously the play of QB Drew Allar will go a long way to determining the fate of the 2024 Nittany Lions. The ceiling is high; very high. There's a reason Allar was the top-ranked QB in the Class of 2022: he's huge, his arm is elite, and he moves just well enough to keep defenses honest. That said...
I remain rather low on Allar. While the measurables are there, Allar looked terrible facing Ohio State, Michigan, and Ole Miss last year. He was extremely uncomfortable facing any pressure, a fact of life against elite competition. His accuracy is sneaky underwhelming, especially on the quick, horizontal passes that have been a staple of the Penn State offense in recent years. Add it all up and I think it's more likely that backup Beau Pribula replaces Allar as the starter this year than that Allar leads a raucous offensive performance against Ohio State on November 2nd. There's some praise for Pribula embedded in the prior sentence; Pribula evokes memories of Trace McSorley for a reason with big plays coming from his legs. At the very least, Pribula should get red zone snaps. Then again, it's not Allar's fault that Yurcich decided not to have the rocket-armed QB push the ball down the field.
If Allar pushes toward his ceiling, the team's ceiling kicks up in a big way. Importantly, I think Allar made the proper decision much more frequently than his predecessor did. There's a lot of value in that.
How does Allar produce? It would really help if this year's wide receivers played better than last year's wide receivers. The exodus of Keandre Lambert-Smith via the Portal doesn't help. They'll miss KLS, even though he vanished late last fall. He exploded in the Rose Bowl against Utah to end the 2022 season, then amassed an impressive 51 grabs for 645 yards over PSU's first nine games in 2023 through the Maryland contest. Then, almost nothing: 1/6 against Michigan, 0/0 against Rutgers, 1/22 against Michigan State, and 0/0 against Ole Miss.
Stepping into KLS's shoes as the new #1 WR: Harrison "Trey" Wallace III. Wallace's health is essential this year. He has top-notch speed and has produced, when he has been able to stay on the field. He has many of the same skills that KLS had, so he could prove to be a #1. The stakes are massive.
The rest of the WR corps requires a couple of guys stepping up into key roles. The biggest offseason addition was former Buckeye and Penn State recruiting loss Julian Fleming. If 2022 Fleming shows up at Penn State (34/533/6), the room looks pretty good. If he provides even more production, the sky is the limit. Fleming's inability to break through at OSU likely says more about OSU's WR room than it does about Fleming; he'll have a chance to make that the story this year. Penn State really missed the Mitchell Tinsley role last year, when Dante Cephas flopped via the Portal.
The remaining WRs come with lower ceilings than Fleming and Wallace, but there is plenty to dream on here. I had high hopes for Kaden Saunders, but he didn't do a lot last year, then stunk in the spring game. He took a lot of heat for being out of shape early in his career. 2024 is a make-or-break season for him. Liam Clifford has shown some flashes and could produce in the slot, but he'll need to be consistent given his relatively lower ceiling. Omari Evans comes with big speed and big-play ability, but he hasn't been able to hold a job. Penn State desperately needs a couple of WRs to step up to reach their goals as a team.
Thankfully for the Nittany Lions, the offensive floor for the team should be very, very high on the strength of the (i) tight end room, and (ii) rushing attack. Tyler Warren's return gives Penn State a good senior starter, a good mid-career #2 in Khalil Dinkins, and two young studs who will push their way into the lineup in RS FR Andrew Rappleyea and true FR Luke Reynolds. The well remains flush.
The offensive line is very interesting. After years of dreadful offensive line play undermining the offense as a whole, Phil Trautwein's units have produced consistently. A trio of 2023 starters are now pros: LT Olu Fashanu (#11), RT Caedan Wallace (#68), and C Hunter Nourzad (#159). The dirty secret on this trio: they were better draft prospects than they were college linemen, especially the OTs. Replacing three starters is always a little scary, but new LT Drew Shelton got a ton of reps over the last two years and the RT spot has two capable starters between emerging star Anthony Donkoh and experienced Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci. RG Saleem Wormley has been the best OL on the team and comes with multiple years of starting experience. While Vega Ione hasn't been a full-time starter at LG, he played 648 highly-productive snaps last year. The depth looks great up front at OT and G, even if most Penn State fans hope not to see former 5* J'Ven Williams at LT, high 4* Alex Birchmeier at G, or veteran Lackawanna transfer JB Nelson at either spot.
In my mind, the diciest spot is center, where RS SR Nick Dawkins gets his chance to shine. If Dawkins can produce similar to Nourzad before him, the offense can thrive. If not, the ceiling is lowered and/or it could put true FR Cooper Cousins in line to play a big role. Cousins has really impressed in camp, but starting a true FR at the pivot cannot be the goal.
Of course, we've saved the best for last: the running backs. RB depth isn't what it has been in year's past, but the top two of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should compare favorably to any other tandem in the country. Hopefully true FR Quinton Martin forces his way into snaps, too, but Singleton and Allen should run the show. They've been very successful as pass catchers, too, so Kotelnicki should enjoy deploying his new toys.
Defense
The Penn State defense has been remarkably productive throughout James Franklin's tenure. In light of that, it is unsurprising that his two most recent defensive coordinators took Power Four head coaching jobs with Brent Pry at Virginia Tech and Manny Diaz now at Duke. If Tom Allen maintains this production, he could find himself with another opportunity to run a program in the coming years.
Allen's most important job: to work with Deion Barnes to get production out of his defensive tackle rotation. D'Von J-Thomas (formerly D'Von Ellies) will lead the way with three other highly experienced vets alongside him: Coziah Izzard, Hakeem Beamon, and Zane Durant. After playing at very low weights in prior years -- Beamon played as low as 260 pounds in 2022! -- this group now has Beamon at 285, Durant at 290, and two players in the 300s (J-Thomas and Izzard). Penn State lacked the girth up front to hold up against the most powerful OLs in the Big Ten in prior years. And they have a surprise addition: former DE Smith Vilbert bulked up to 292 to play on the inside this year. If he retained a chunk of his quickness, he could change the story inside. This group now has the weight to hold up against beefy rushing attacks; will the production follow? There's no help coming from lower on the depth chart, so it's all on their shoulders.
The rest of the Penn State defense requires fewer words because, well, they should be great and possibly better than that. It starts at defensive end. Vilbert likely won't be missed outside. Dani Dennis-Sutton will lead the way after generating absurd amounts of pressure last year. With his frame and production, he's likely headed to the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft...where he may well be joined by converted LB Adbul Carter. Carter has looked and played like Micah Parsons Jr. thus far, but given the need for elite production at DE, he moved up in the spring. If Carter clicks, the pass rush should remain elite. #3 DE Amin Vanover has been very productive in limited reps; here's hoping he continues to do so with more snaps.
The depth at DE took a pair of hits recently. Oft-injured veteran Zuriah Fisher appears lost for the season and emerging true SO Jameial Lyons is serving an indefinite suspension that may end his career at Penn State is no longer enrolled at Penn State following some type of serious off-the-field matter. In light of Vilbert's shift, Fisher's injury, and Lyons' suspension dismissal, the #4 DE spot is a question mark, but that 4th DE doesn't figure to get a ton of reps with how the roster is constructed.
The linebacker group isn't the deepest that Penn State has featured over the last few decades, but it is plenty strong at the top. Leading the way is emerging star true SO Tony Rojas, who forced his way into starting-level snaps last season. Rojas is ready to explode. He has steady RS JR Kobe King next to him manning the middle. The third LB spot is more interesting. Here's my expectation, though this hasn't yet been made explicit: when facing beefy, run-heavy attacks, Carter will slide back to OLB with Vilbert kicking outside to DE. Conversely, against pass-happy offenses, Penn State will play a lot of 4-2-5 with King and Rojas as the only two LBs or a 4-3 with Dom DeLuca getting the third LB spot. DeLuca is a nice college football story, a walk-on who plays big reps, but he's going to be wildly outmatched against top competition. It will be essential to limit or even eliminate his reps against Ohio State.
Linebacker depth is very poor entering the season. The top two OLB reserves are both out. Keon Wylie suffered an injury in spring ball and Kaveion Keys was suspended related to the same incident that claimed Lyons has also been dismissed stemming from the same matter that claimed Lyons. Inside, Tyler Elsdon suffers from many of the same shortcomings as DeLuca. Thus, should King or Rojas to down, a heavy load should fall on the shoulders of Ta'Mere Robinson. Robinson is an MLB, but he has the athleticism necessary to run with top competition.
Despite lacking depth at LB and potentially at DE, the story couldn't be more different in the defensive backfield. Despite the top three CBs from 2023 now plying their trade in the pros (Kalen King, Johnny Dixon, and Dae'quan Hardy), the defensive backfield should be elite in 2024. Losing budding star King Mack to Alabama in the Portal hurt, but the rest of the safeties return and were the strength of last year's defense. Kevin Winston Jr. leads the way, but Zakee Wheatley and Jaylen Reed offer plus production, too. This should enable Penn State to bring along their four freshman safeties slowly (RS FR DaKaari Nelson and Lamont Payne along with true FR Dejuan Lane and Vaobue Toure). Reed figures to get a lot of time in the slot, so Nelson in particular could get a bit of run this year.
The CBs are very exciting. True SOs Elliot Washington II and Zion Tracy would be expected on the two-deep in most years, but they instead find themselves as the #5 and #6 CBs this year, thanks to success in the Portal. Veteran Cam Miller figures to hold down one job with surprise Georgia transfer AJ Harris opposite him. 2023 Portal steal Audavion Collins should get plenty of playing time while old man Jalen Kimber offers a reliable #4. This group is deep and has plenty of ceiling, especially if Harris emerges. If either of the Jackonsville-based freshmen force their way into playing time, this group could be scary good.
Special Teams
Gabe Nwosu should boom his kickoffs. Riley Thompson's punting will remain a welcome sight. But Penn State's kicking game has a chance to be much, much worse, given the uncertainty between Sander Sahaydak and Chase Meyer. Hopefully one emerges. Singleton and Martin will scare plenty of teams returning kickoffs, but the punt returner gig is a question, too.
Schedule
As we head into a season pick, here's the Penn State schedule for 2024:
- @ West Virginia
- Bowling Green
- BYE
- Kent State
- Illinois
- UCLA
- @ USC
- BYE
- @ Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- Washington
- @ Purdue
- @ Minnesota
- Maryland
The most jarring part of this schedule is who isn't on it: Michigan and Oregon. It's possible that this new 12-team playoff era will feature the CFP Committee rethinking its longstanding preference for teams that don't lose over teams that play hard games, but until that happens, loss avoidance remains paramount.
The opener at West Virginia figures to be a tough opener. This has been a theme for Penn State in recent seasons, opening with Power Four road games in 2021 (Wisconsin), 2022 (Purdue), and now 2024 after hosting the Mountaineers last year. West Virginia was sneaky tough last year and Garrett Greene has produced a ton for WVU. OL stars Zach Frazier and Doug Nester are gone, but a pair of Penn State recruiting misses will power the offense in star LT Wyatt Milum and WR Rodney Gallagher. WVU ranks 34th in SP+ coming out of the spring, one spot ahead of new Big Ten foe Washington. That PSU-Washington contest would look mighty different in Seattle. Vegas set Washington's over/under at 6.5 wins, giving Penn State fans a sense for where West Virginia might slot as a conference foe. Penn State is appropriately favored over West Virginia by 10.5 on the road. 10.5 is a lot...but it's not that much. That opener is scary.
The following month is far less interesting. Illinois can try to play bully ball but lacks the horses with which to do it. UCLA could be feisty this year, but they have to travel 2,500 miles for the game and face Oregon and LSU in the two prior weeks; the Bruins will likely be licking their wounds when they arrive at Beaver Stadium on October 5th.
The season kicks into high gear for Penn State after that UCLA game. The trip to USC looks scary on paper: it's a road game against a talented roster where Franklin will likely be outcoached by Lincoln Riley. But this brings us to a key understanding about this current era of Penn State football: Penn State is designed to play with OSU, USC, and SEC teams, not bully ball teams. That means they play better than expected against certain types of elite competition, but they struggle against teams that want to punch you in the mouth, like Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, certain iterations of Michigan State, Minnesota, and even Illinois.
In light of that, I like Penn State's chances to run through USC. The Penn State defense is well designed to slow the USC offense and USC's defense will likely have a brutal day stopping the Nittany Lions. Add it all up and I think Penn State reaches their second bye week at 6-0.
Coming out of the bye, things could get scary in a hurry. Wisconsin should be red hot when Penn State comes to Madison; the Badgers start October hosting Purdue, travelling to Rutgers, and then hosting Northwestern. That is a tough matchup for the Nittany Lions even before accounting for the style of play issues. Luke Fickell is building up the Wisconsin program, and after a September slate that features contests against Alabama and USC, they could still be looking for their marquee win on October 26th. I'm afraid that the Badgers will get it.
If Penn State loses to Wisconsin, they'll need to regroup in a hurry with the ultra-elite Buckeyes coming to town for what will stupidly be a noon kick. Unfortunately, James Franklin's teams have routinely flopped following the season's first loss. Here are their results under Franklin:
- 2014: LOSS 13-18 @ Michigan (5-7)
- 2015: WIN 31-30 @ Maryland (3-9)
- 2016: WIN 29-26 in OT v. Minnesota (9-4)
- 2017: LOSS 24-27 @ Michigan State (10-3)
- 2018: LOSS 17-21 v. Michigan State (7-6)
- 2019: WIN 34-27 v. Indiana (8-5)
- 2021: LOSS 18-20 in 9OT v. Illinois (5-7)
- 2022: WIN 45-17 v. Minnesota (9-4)
- 2023: WIN 33-24 v. Indiana (3-9)
Some of those results get much worse upon further inspection. Penn State was a 9-point favorite at Michigan State in 2017, a 14.5-point favorite hosting Indiana in 2019, and a 24-point favorite against Illinois in 2021. Last year's result might be the most striking. Penn State was favored by 30.5 at home against a reeling Indiana squad on its way to bottoming out, but the game was tied at 24 with two minutes to play.
So what happens when the post-loss contest is against arguably college football's best team? I'd rather not find out. But it won't be pretty.
Now despondent following consecutive losses, I think Penn State will rip through Washington in the Whiteout (hopefully a 3:30pm kick or later) and Purdue, and I think Senior Day against Maryland will be a cakewalk in spite of the sleepy stadium that always features on Thanksgiving weekend. It's that November 23 trip to Minneapolis that has me nervous.
Minnesota is a bad matchup for Penn State. Yes, Penn State obliterated Minnesota in their last meeting during the Whiteout in 2022, but that game was played against reserve true FR QB Athan Kaliakmanis with the much better but concussed Tanner Morgan unvailable. The Gophers struggled to a 6-7 season in 2023, but PJ Fleck has never endured consecutive losing seasons as a head coach. Bully ball + November road game + Fleck's recovery season = yikes. I think the Gophers take this one and push Penn State down to a horribly disappointing 9-3 season that does not include a Playoff bid.
I do expect Penn State to be favored in every game except Ohio State, so 9-3 would be an underwhelming outcome.
Big Ten Picks
Penn State's season may be disappointing, but that won't be the case for every Big Ten team.
Reigning champion Michigan's offense is somewhat unknown...but their OL will be strong and they'll be able to run the ball with Donovan Edwards and friends. Their defense should be elite. The floor remains high and I think they have a very good chance to make the Playoff, even with three losses, due to their tough schedule that comes with plenty of chances for showcase wins, standing in stark contrast to their schedule in recent years.
MSU looks potentially really bad. Not Purdue bad. But really bad. Aidan Chiles should offer some excitement, but he doesn't have much help around him. Jonathan Smith remains a great hire for Sparty. He'll just need some time.
Big Ten Standings
- Ohio State (12-0, 9-0)
- Oregon (11-1, 8-1)
- Loss: Ohio State
- Michigan (10-2, 7-2)
- Losses: Ohio State, Oregon
- Penn State (9-3, 6-3)
- Losses: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota
- USC (8-4, 6-3)
- Losses: LSU, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame
- Iowa (8-4, 6-3)
- Losses: Iowa State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Washington
- Wisconsin (8-4, 6-3)
- Losses: Alabama, USC, Iowa, Oregon
- Nebraska (7-5, 5-4)
- Losses: Colorado, Ohio State, USC, Wisconsin, Iowa
- Note: if this plays out, Nebraska would start 6-1 and that game in Columbus on October 26 will have a ton of hype.
- Minnesota (7-5, 4-5)
- Losses: Michigan, USC, UCLA, Rutgers, Wisconsin
- UCLA (6-6, 4-5)
- Losses: LSU, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, Washington, USC
- Washington (6-6, 4-5)
- Losses: Washington State, Rutgers, Michigan, USC, Penn State, Oregon
- Maryland (6-6, 4-5)
- Losses: Virginia, USC, Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, Penn State
- Michigan State (5-7, 3-6)
- Losses: Maryland, Boston College, Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, Illinois
- Rutgers (5-7, 3-6)
- Losses: Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, USC, Maryland, Michigan State
- Northwestern (5-7, 3-6)
- Losses: Duke, Washington, Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan
- Illinois (5-7, 2-7)
- Losses: Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, Minnesota, Rutgers, Northwestern
- Purdue (3-9, 1-8)
- Losses: Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State
- Indiana (3-9, 0-9)
- Losses: UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue
The Big Ten Championship Game will be a rematch of the Ohio State - Oregon game...and I'll take the Buckeyes again. Here's our CFP bracket with the winners in bold:
BYES
#1 Ohio State
#2 Georgia
#3 Clemson
#4 Oklahoma State
#12 Appalachian State @ #5 Oregon
#11 LSU @ #6 Alabama
#10 Florida State @ #7 Michigan
#9 Notre Dame @ #8 Texas
After meeting in the Peach Bowl last year and figuring to potentially meet up again in the Playoff this year, Ole Miss and Penn State are the two most disappointed teams this year.
#1 Ohio State v. #8 Texas @ the Rose Bowl
#2 Georgia v. #7 Michigan @ the Sugar Bowl
#3 Clemson v. #11 LSU @ the Orange Bowl
#4 Oklahoma State v. #5 Oregon @ the Cotton Bowl
#1 Ohio State v. #5 Oregon @ the Peach Bowl
#2 Georgia v. #11 LSU @ the Fiesta Bowl
#2 Georgia v. #5 Oregon @ Atlanta
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