Could 2024 Finally Be the Year that Penn State Beats Ohio State Again?

Could this finally be the year? 2016 was amazing, but it was also a very long time ago. Coach James Franklin -- affectionately referred to in these parts as "JFF," a very well-earned moniker -- has struggled mightily to get over the hump and actually beat OSU since that magical year. But his teams continue to play OSU tough. In fact, here's a look at his performances against OSU over the years:

• 2014
• Spread: PSU +14
• Result: Loss 31-24 in 2OT
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 17-17 tie.
• 2015
• Spread: PSU +17 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 38-10
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. 21-10 OSU to start Q4.
• 2016
• Spread: PSU +20
• Result: WIN 24-21
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes.
• 2017
• Spread: PSU +7 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 39-38
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 35-20 with 12 minutes left. Win expectancy % peaked at 97.2%.
• 2018
• Spread: PSU +3.5
• Result: Loss 27-26
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 26-14 with 8 minutes left. WE% peaked at 96.1%.
• 2019
• Spread: PSU +19.5 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 28-17
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. 21-17 OSU to start Q4.
• 2020 (whatever that was)
• Spread: PSU +10.5
• Result: Loss 38-25
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. Closest point was 31-19 OSU early Q4.
• 2021
• Spread: PSU +17.5 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 33-24
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 27-24 OSU with 10 minutes left.
• 2022
• Spread: PSU +15.5
• Result: Loss 44-31
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 21-16 PSU with 10 minutes left.
• 2023
• Spread: PSU +4.5
• Result: Loss 20-12
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 13-6 OSU mid-4th.
• 2024
• Spread: PSU +3.5
• Result:
• 4th Quarter Lead?

Franklin's teams have been consistently competitive. Over 10 games -- and we're counting the COVID game here, though I'm not sure we should -- Penn State has one win, two other games with two-score fourth quarter leads, another game with a one-score fourth quarter lead, another game that went to double overtime, three other games where PSU was within one score in the final 10 minutes, and two others where PSU was within two scores in the fourth quarter. Given that decade of situations, Penn State's 1-9 record is remarkable, unfortunately for the wrong reasons.

I start with this history because, unfortunately, it matters. JFF carries this baggage with him into Saturday's game.

Turning to the rosters, I understand why Ohio State is favored. While Will Howard is a huge step down when compared to other recent OSU QBs, he's plenty competent, and he'll throw the ball around at Beaver Stadium to an outrageously talented group of WRs led by freshman savant Jeremiah Smith,  Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. Egbuka still projects as a first-round pick and is likely the third best player in that group. Absurd. Penn State's defensive backfield is strong and has played well this year, but AJ Harris has struggled a bit recently and the absence of KJ Winston is rearing its head. On the other side of the ball, OSU's defensive backfield, led by CB Denzel Burke, S Caleb Downs, S Sonny Styles, and S Lathan Ransom, figures to make life extremely difficult on Penn State's average group of receivers. While Trey Wallace and Liam Clifford have proved to be reasonably productive this year, it's hard to see them creating significant plays against this defense.

Taken together, Penn State's path to victory appears to be on the ground, on both sides of the ball. Penn State appeared to have a good chance for a productive day of running the football if the team was at full strength. Unfortunately, that isn't the case. RT Anthony Donkoh -- Penn State's best offensive lineman earlier this year -- is trying to play through shoulder and knee injuries, and it shows. While the rest of the PSU OL has performed well in its run blocking, the dropoff from a healthy Donkoh to either (i) a hobbled Donkoh, or (ii) Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci, is absolutely massive. Against some teams, Penn State can scheme around the shortcomings. Against DE JT Tuimoloau, DE Jack Sawyer, and DT Tyleik Williams, a trio of experienced defenders headed to the NFL this offseason via top-100 picks, Penn State needs to be in top form. Adding Beau Pribula as a running threat may help, but that comes with a rather obvious cost to Penn State's downfield passing attack. Still, it's plausible that Pribula's running ability is necessary to combat the incredible strength of the Ohio State defense at all levels.

Fortunately, we may encounter a very strange situation involving Ohio State's offensive line: it is horribly banged up and underperforming. G Donovan Jackson is playing OK. LT Josh Simmons was having a nice season and projects as a good pro...but he suffered a knee injury against Oregon and is out for the year. His backup, Zen Michalski, was carted off the field following a terrible showing against Nebraska. Either a hobbled Michalski or a third-string LT figures to take the field in State College. This offers an opportunity for Penn State. Ohio State has rushed the ball 30+ times in every game this year, so there may not be a tremendous number of true pass rush opportunities. However, if Penn State can require OSU to allocate two blockers to DE Abdul Carter on each pass rushing snap, opportunities should abound elsewhere on the line. DT Zane Durant figures to have the opportunity to blow up the game from the inside. If PSU can successfully limit the OSU rushing attack and pressure Howard on passing plays, the Nittany Lions will have a shot. If OSU's line holds up and gives Howard a chance to distribute the ball to his pass catchers, Franklin figures to drop to 1-10 against the Buckeyes.

Given the makeup of these rosters, I'd love to see Penn State negate Ohio State's defensive backs by pulling them off the field entirely. Play bully ball. Put three tight ends on the field with a couple of running backs and a running QB. This plan took a huge hit when TE2/3 Andrew Rappleyea suffered a season-ending knee injury; as good as Luke Reynolds has looked in the TE3 role, could he really handle 50 snaps against OSU? Yikes. Still, I'm expecting to see a tremendous amount of TE2 Khalil Dinkins on the field on Saturday, to say nothing of the barrage of touches that will surely be funneled toward national TE1 Tyler Warren.

I've made it this far without directly addressing the elephant in the room: Penn State's QB situation. Former 5* QB and Ohio native Drew Allar has looked dramatically better this year, raising the offense's ceiling from last season. Unfortunately, Allar suffered what appears to be a knee injury against Wisconsin. If he plays, he'll surely be limited in his mobility and likely be unable to escape the pocket when necessary. I'm deeply concerned that this iteration of the Penn State offensive line -- with Donkoh's injury -- won't have an advantage over Ohio State's front; thus, the legs of Beau Pribula could be necessary for Penn State's offense to function. I don't love the idea of Pribula making his first start against the Buckeyes, but given the circumstances, this is probably the best of two bad choices.

As we near the end, we get to special teams. Starting Penn State PR Kaden Saunders remains out with a foot injury and reserve Zion Tracy is yet to make a difference in the return game. P Riley Thompson has been solid, though not quite as solid as last year. Most notably, K Ryan Barker appears to have stabilized the placekicking game following his walkoff field goal against USC. Given the tight nature of so many PSU-OSU contests, the kicking game could loom large.

Finally, we loop back to the coaches. Ryan Day is developing a reputation as something of a James Franklin 2.0, a coach who dominates just about every opponent...except for the elite teams on the schedule, where he finds a way to lose. Day's team suffered a fatal brain fart in Eugene, but otherwise looks very strong. And for all of Day's struggles relative to OSU expectations, he has not struggled to beat Penn State.

So, again I ask: could this finally be the year? Sadly, I don't think so. Penn State has the talent to play with Ohio State and turn this game into a coin flip, but Ohio State's receiving talent will be impossible to stifle. There's a strange narrative emanating that Ohio State struggles to run the ball. Yes, they struggled to run the ball against Nebraska, but TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combined for 110 yards on 21 carries against Oregon, 139 yards on 24 carries against Iowa, and 123 yards on just 18 carries against Michigan State. While Penn State's run defense is arguably better than those squads, OSU should still be able to run with some success.

The Penn State defense has suffocated opposing offenses in the second half of games, particularly in the third quarter, but they have sluffed through many first halves. If Penn State holds Ohio State to 10 points or less in the second half, though could be enough to win...but it won't be enough to win if the defense surrenders three touchdowns in the first half. I think that happens on Saturday, complete with the added concern that a hobbled Allar or first-time starting Pribula seems primed for a turnover or two that gifts the Buckeyes offense with a short field. I do think that Penn State will move the ball against Ohio State significantly more than last year, regardless of who plays QB. But if Penn State reaches halftime down something like 21-10, the offense will be forced to press the OSU secondary...and that's a recipe for disappointment.

OSU 31

PSU 20

Chicago Bears 2025 Mock Offseason: Post-Hail Mary Depression Edition

I ran a whole bunch of mock offseasons over the past couple of years. I generally tried to wait until the Bears were out of contention. Unfortunately, that time has likely come, despite the current 4-3 record. Matt Eberflus has lost seven road games in each of his two seasons at the helm. Here is the remaining road schedule for the Bears:

• Nov. 3 @ Arizona
• Nov. 28 @ Detroit
• Dec. 8 @ San Francisco
• Dec. 16 @ Minnesota
• Jan. 5 @ Green Bay

In order to avoid seven losses again, the Bears would need to find multiple wins against that slate. They'll be underdogs in every one of those games, and Flus is 3-17 on the road as a head coach.

This season is now exclusively about developing Caleb Williams and the young core around him.

Internal Decisions
Far and away, the most important internal decision is what to do with Flus. My thoughts on the matter have been clear for some time. Flus needs to go. If the Bears go 7-10 or worse in 2024, he surely will. Here's hoping he's gone.

Moving to the roster, there are a few easy choices. G Nate Davis is gone, leaving $2M of dead cap space behind. 

There are some tougher choices. ILB Tremaine Edmunds has generally disappointed, but it's very difficult to find an ILB with his body to roam the middle of this defense; plus, cutting him only yields $4.3M of net cap space. He most likely sticks. S Kevin Byard has been very impressive, but cutting him only leaves $1.5M of dead space; still, he should come back unless he trails off. TE Gerald Everett has been a huge disappointment; with only $1M of dead space against $6.5M of cap space if he says, I think Everett is gone. DE DeMarcus Walker's cap hit drops under $6M but he leaves only $667K of dead space if cut. That was an easy choice last year, but he has been much more impressive this year, especially when sliding inside on pass rushing downs. He's not a winning team's DE2, but he's a great DE3 and a good DT2 on 3rd down. He stays. G Ryan Bates and his $4M cap hit stays, assuming his injury isn't a long-term one. S Jonathan Owens has only played 12 defensive snaps through seven games, despite injuries in the secondary. He's gone, leaving $375K of dead cap space behind him.

Lower on the cap table, some recent draftees find themselves in dicey situations, including WR Tyler Scott, DE Dominique Robinson, LB Noah Sewell, and even DT Zacch Pickens. I won't cut any of them for purposes of this exercise, but things look bad for Scott and Robinson in particular.

It seems likely that the Bears let G Teven Jenkins walk in free agency; he was drafted by the Ryan Pace regime, he hasn't ever been able to stay healthy, and his play peaked during his sophomore year. But I hope he stays; I love watching Teven.

The cuts above yield the following dead hits:

• G Nate Davis: $2M
• TE Gerald Everett: $1M
• S Jonathan Owens: $0.375M

With an adjusted cap of $280,261,771 and after allocating (i) $3,760,228 to dead money, (ii) $4M to the practice squad, (iii) holding back $10M to account for draft cap hits over the minimum, (iv) holding back $10M for in-season cap space, and (iv) accounting for $186,287,801 of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter free agency with approximately $66.214M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Free Agency
The Bears have two massive needs in free agency with two additional target areas listed in order of my preference:

1. Interior Offensive Line. After terrible play at the pivot for years, Coleman Shelton has been surprisingly decent after a dreadful start. Nevertheless, the Bears need an influx of talent in the interior, whether at G or C, and likely both through the draft and free agency. They could even consider signing at new LT and kicking Braxton Jones inside to G. Names to consider:
1. iOL: G Trey Smith, C Drew Dalman, G Teven Jenkins, C Ryan Kelly, G Will Fries, G Aaron Banks, C Connor Williams, C Coleman Shelton, G James Daniels, G Kevin Zeitler
2. OT: Ronnie Stanley, Garrett Bolles, Cam Robinson, Morgan Moses, Trent Brown, Alaric Jackson
2. Defensive Line. The Bears need another impact player up front. It's probably better coming at DE, though a 1-tech or 3-tech DT could work, too, with some roster shenanigans.
1. DTs: Calais Campbell, Milton Williams, B.J. Hill, Osa Odighizuwa
2. DEs: Haason Reddick, Khalil Mack, Malcolm Koonce, Chase Young, Matthew Judon, Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, Josh Uche, Derek Barnett
3. #2/#3 Wide Receiver. Keenan Allen doesn't seem like a long-term fit, though he has been solid. Adding another piece to pair with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze would be prudent.
1. Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Darius Slayton
4. Tight End #2. Gerald Everett just hasn't delivered. A complementary piece to Cole Kmet would be so helpful.
1. Mike Gesicki, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Conklin, Tommy Tremble, Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper

The Bears have largely eschewed playing at the top of the market, save for keeping CB Jaylon Johnson last year. This year, I think that changes. Ryan Poles has largely tried to fix the interior offensive line by tinkering, spending in middle class free agency for G Nate Davis, C Lucas Patrick, and C Coleman Shelton, and swinging a modest deal for G/C Ryan Bates. No more.

These contract projections are my own as PFF doesn't have any yet:

• Sign RG Trey Smith (4/$84M, $46M guaranteed)
• The top of the iOL market exploded recently. This is the cost of doing business there.
• Sign C Drew Dalman (4/$58M, $34M guaranteed).
• Poles could consider staying at lower class free agency with Shelton; he has admittedly played reasonably well in the last month and would surely benefit from a infusion of talent next to him. But Dalman represents the biggest swing possible for Caleb Williams.
• Sign WR Diontae Johnson (3/$42M with $25M guaranteed)
• Sign TE Austin Hooper (1/$3M)
• Re-Sign OLB Jack Sanborn (2/$4M, $2M guaranteed)
• Re-Sign DT Chris Williams (RFA tender of 1/$1.5M)
• Re-Sign C Doug Kramer (ERFA tender of 1/$1M)

The most important goals this offseason are (i) adding significant talent to the offensive line, and (ii) solving the C spot, whether via continuity or new talent. Smith and Dalman represent the tippy top of the iOL market.

I not extremely confident that Poles will take multiple dips into the deep end given that the Bears finally have homegrown talent to keep in the form of CB Kyler Gordon, S Jaquan Brisker, and LT Braxton Jones. Those extensions could utilize a chunk of 2025 cap space. But even this spending spree doesn't create a cap crunch. The time is right for big forays before meaningful extensions are required.

Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $57M of cap space before accounting for lower first-year cap hits. This should leave plenty for the draft class and the aforementioned extensions, even with possible draft trades.

Draft
This mock requires some assumptions. Namely, the the Pittsburgh pick for the Justin Fields pick is the Steelers' 4th, not 6th. As of now, Fields has played well more than 51% of the Pittsburgh snaps thus far, but with Russell Wilson now running the show, this is probably a toss up, with the result depending on Wilson's health status.

The Bears have their own picks in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th rounds, an extra 2nd from Carolina, the aforementioned Pittsburgh 4th, and a 7th from Cleveland from the Chris Williams trade. This mock was completed using the Pro Football Focus mock draft tool.

The draft class impacted my thoughts on free agency. The OL class is fine; the DE class is fantastic, so spending on the OL was more palatable than spending on DE.

#18: Penn State DE Abdul Carter
A dream scenario. Carter is a Swiss Army knife on defense given his extensive experience at DE and OLB, and his measurables are nearly identical to former Nittany Lion Micah Parsons. Adding Carter at DE gives the Bears a wave of pass rushers to employ throughout games.

#33: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
I wanted to trade this pick and had some attractive offers to do so...but Winston is far too attractive to pass on here. He's a great addition to the 2025 roster, and he won't be forced into a starting role in his return from a missed year in 2024. The ceiling her is substantial as evidenced by Winston's superb 2023 season.

My other top consideration here was West Virginia LT Wyatt Milum, who came off the board at #34. Surely I'll take an OL at #50, right?

Bears trade #50 and a 2026 6th to Seattle for #80 and a 2025 2nd

This is my favorite type of trade, and the Bears have routinely been on the wrong side of it. Trade this year's 2nd for next year's 2nd and the benefit is that you turn next year's 6th into a mid-3rd this year? Yes please!

#80: USC C Jonah Monheim

Monheim's transition to C hasn't been the smoothest, but he was solid at LT in 2023 and superb splitting 2022 between RG and RT. He's an ideal backup OL who projects as a starting C.

#82: Penn State TE Tyler Warren

I know it looks like I'm an outrageous Penn State homer at this point, but I promise, this is just how the board broke. I do a couple of these each day and end up with about 0.5 Nittany Lions on average, hardly outrageous given the quality fit of their top players with these Bears.

Warren is a perfect fit in the NFL. I'll be floored if he's available here. If he is, it's a no brainer. If he's not, look for Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.

#126: South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori

What if Kyle Hamilton ran a 4.4 instead of a 4.6?

Emmanwori definitely isn't on Hamilton's level of production and his pedigree isn't close. But the starter kit is here. And at #126, it's worth the shot.

#154: Kansas RB Devin Neal

Neal isn't an exceptional athlete, lacks exceptional size, and played in the Big 12, which makes me inherently skeptical of him. But he's plenty productive, athletic enough, and comes with significant experience as a pass catcher, something that is lacking with Roschon Johnson.

#222: UNLV CB Tony Grimes

Grimes had a great pedigree coming out of high school, but the 5* prospect's journey has been quite the twisting path, playing 36 games at North Carolina, transferring to Texas A&M but never playing due to injury, and ending up at UNLV for his final year. His tackling is terrible. This is a bet that a couple of years in one system would help him improve.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:

1st (CHI)
2nd (SEA)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (CHI)
4th (CHI)
5th (CHI)

7th (CHI)

A Note on the Mock

Every other mock I've run includes drafting at least two offensive linemen. This is the first time I haven't done that in weeks...but that's because I have the benefit of knowing that both Smith and Dalman are aboard. If free agency only yields one impact starter on the OL, I'd say goodbye to Emmanwori or even Warren in favor of another OL.

Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Devin Neal, FREE AGENT
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Tyler Warren
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Scott, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, FREE AGENT
OG (3): Trey Smith, Kiran Amegadjie, Ryan Bates
C    (3): Drew Dalman, Jonah Monheim, Doug Kramer

DE (5): Montez Sweat, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Abdul Carter, Dominique Robinson
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter Jr., Zacch Pickens, Chris Williams, FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Tony Grimes
S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Winston Jr., Elijah Hicks, Nick Emmanwori

ST (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

This roster isn't perfect, but it's awfully damn good. The pass rush is hugely improved with Booker and Carter added to complement Sweat, especially given that they enable Walker to kick inside and improve the DT pass rush, too. Adding Warren and Johnson as receiving options ensures the Williams has plenty of receiving options available to him.

Most importantly, the offensive line looks absolutely fantastic. The tackle depth chart is encouraging with Jones at LT, Wright at RT, Amegadjie as the top OT backup, and Monheim as a second OT backup with recent experience out wide; heck, even Bates was a LT at Penn State. Inside, going Amegadjie-Dalman-Smith left to right is darn exciting with Bates and Monheim as quality backups.

The WR depth chart is a little scary, but the allocation of assets into the top three is massive.

Any new coach should be ecstatic to step into this situation!