Before I do, an essential disclaimer: there's no grade inflation here. So, a C is a perfectly average move, a B is really good, an A is elite, a D is subpar, and an F is failing.
Bears trade #198 to Los Angeles Rams for LG Jonah Jackson
There's no sugarcoating it: I hated this trade. I haven't watched most of Jackson's career, so I'm putting lots of stock in a few viewings of him at Ohio State, in Detroit, and his grades and reputation. Jackson was a relatively middling draft prospect coming out of OSU with a mediocre Combine performance that yielded a 6.43 RAS. None of this would matter if he was great in the NFL, but he's never been terribly impressive. He was a Pro Bowl alternate once in his first five seasons despite spending four of those on the elite OL in Detroit surrounding by stars like Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow, and Taylor Decker. So, we've got five years of slightly below-average production. Not great. He was even benched by the Rams upon returning from injury this year.
(If you think looking at the RAS of a 6th-year pro is ridiculous, that's fine. But here are the other OL Poles has acquired: Braxton Jones (8.44...but with 35.4" arms!), Doug Kramer (8.49), Ja'Tyre Carter (6.31), Darnell Wright (9.68), Ryan Bates (9.54), and Kiran Amegadjie (n/a). He has a type.)
But that's before we get to the two massive downsides: health and cost. Jackson missed four games in 2022, six more in 2023 with two different ailments that caused him to miss big chunks of time, and 13 more in 2024. Yikes! And then we see that Jackson is due $17.5M from the Bears in 2025. There's some confusion on this point, but his contract is rather simple: he's due a $9M base salary that guarantees next week and an $8.5M roster bonus next week. The Bears are paying him $17.5M this year. While this isn't a top-of-the-market price, it's near that level and the Bears paid to get this contract, shipping out a 6th. I'm baffled. If the Bears wanted to avoid paying free agent pricing, that's fine...but this is free agent pricing!
There were only three plausible positives to this deal. First, it shows a commitment to the offensive line. Unfortunately, this is undercut by the reality that Jackson is worse than Teven Jenkins, just as injured as Jenkins, more expensive than Jenkins, and older than Jenkins. Woof. Second, Jackson is a LG in a market flooded with RGs, and he also had 200 snaps at C and 800 snaps at RG at OSU. Getting a LG made sense...until they got another, better LG the next day! Third, the Ben Johnson connection. Nabbing Jackson shows a willingness to find players that have a connection to Johnson. Whatever. GM Ryan Poles is supposed to be the adult in the room and get the right type of players for his coach, not an oft-injured guy on an underwater deal.
Poles' legacy of pick-for-player trades feature a couple of losses involving the offensive line, namely the 2023 6th he shipped to Miami for Dan Feeney and the 2024 5th he sent to Buffalo for Ryan Bates, to say nothing of the Chase Claypool whopper and, to a much lesser degree, what looks like a decent overpay for Montez Sweat. This one looks like the worst by a massive margin.
Original Grade: F
Updated Grade after Thuney Trade: F-
Bears trade 2026 4th to Kansas City for LG Joe Thuney
This is a more expensive trade than the Jackson trade. But this one is awesome for one key reason: Joe Thuney rules.
Thuney has been a stud since he entered the league in 2016. He has won four Super Bowls and lost two more. He was second-team All-Pro in 2019 and 2022, which is great! And it's completely overshadowed by Thuney being first-team All-Pro in 2023 and 2024. He's a star. And he's on a below-market deal, owed just $16M for the 2025 season, though the Bears would be wise to extend him for a bit.
There are three drawbacks to this deal. First, a 2026 4th is a meaningful cost to pay for what is presumably a rental player, but I think it's plenty fair. Second, Thuney is old. He's 33. Here's hoping he ages like Ruben Brown and Jason Peters instead of falling off a cliff. If he does, this deal will look even better. Third, this deal doesn't exist in a vacuum; it's yet another pick-for-player trade by Poles, and the Bears' draft capital continues to wither away.
Two other thoughts. First, I've heard some baffling talk that it's stupid for the Bears to invest at LG when the Chiefs are willing to downgrade at that spot; this is asinine considering that the Chiefs are only moving on from Thuney because of his $27M cap number in Kansas City and the new $23M cap number for RG Trey Smith. Second, the only way to for the Bears to blow this trade is to kick Thuney out to LT; let him be a star at LG.
Grade: B (remember, that's pretty darn good!)
Now, onto the mock offseason. Note that I put this together before the announcements of deals with TE Durham Smythe, CB Josh Blackwell, and LB Amen Ogbengemiga.
Free Agency
In my last mock offseason, I had the Bears at $78.3M of net cap space. So, I'll assume that the Bears entered this week with about $58.3M to spend, keeping $20M of powder dry to sign their draft class, extend Kyler Gordon, and make in-season moves. With the additions of Jackson and Thuney, the net cap space has dropped considerably, down to about $26.5M.
- Sign DE Josh Sweat to a 3-year, $54M with $32.5M guaranteed. This move requires a tiny bit a cap flexibility that I didn't otherwise plan on, but the Bears need a real splash addition to the defense. Sweat is an ideal complement to Sweat and allows Austin Booker to come along a bit more slowly.
- Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $6M guaranteed. It would be great to make this Drew Dalman, but I'm not sure that Poles can allocate that much cap space to the interior OL. Dalman figures to garner about $14M per year and has his own injury concerns. Shelton is no star, but he's a solid citizen, offers some continuity, and played significantly better football after a brutal September.
- Sign WR Brandin Cooks to a 1-year, $3M deal with $2M guaranteed. Cooks has been a consistent producer for a long time, but he's nearing the end...and that's fine! He's here as WR3 if the draft doesn't break right or, ideally, WR4 if it does.
- Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. TE3 ideally; TE2 if necessary.
- Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is old and hurt, but the Bears need some insurance here.
- Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping a productive RFA.
Even without accounting for lower year-one cap hits and assuming equal AAVs, this free agency period uses $27.7M of net cap space assuming Sweat's signing pushes Dominique Robinson off of the roster, pushing me a tick beyond the $26.5M estimate above but this remains plenty workable. Of the new Bears, only Sweat has meaningful cap ramifications in 2026.
NFL Draft
Entering the draft, the Bears can do basically whatever they want, though the goal remains the same: get Penn State DE Abdul Carter, Michigan DT Mason Graham, or trade down.
Bears trade #10 to Denver for #20, #52, #121, and a 2026 2nd
I made this exact same trade last time. In this draft, Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan dropped, which was hugely beneficial for me.
#20: Texas A&M Shemar Stewart
Stewart didn't do much at Texas A&M, but his Combine performance puts him firmly in the first round. He's the unicorn that every team always wants. With M. Sweat and J. Sweat ahead of him, the Bears can afford to develop him in a complementary role as a rookie, putting him in favorable situations.
Bears trade #39 to Seattle for #50, #82, and a 2026 4th
This was the trickiest spot in the entire draft: both North Dakota State G/C Grey Zabel and, stunningly, Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. were on the board. Banks had to be the pick, right? Wrong. I got greedy with a trade and crossed my fingers that at least one of Banks or Zabel would make it to #41. Gulp.
This trade recoups the 2026 4th sent to Kansas City for Thuney.
#41: Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr.
Zabel didn't make it, but incredibly, Banks did. He's the LT of the future. I'm not sure what he is in 2025, but perhaps he can work his way into the lineup at RG if Jackson kicks over to C. I don't love the tape on Banks and he has injury issues on his resume. But come on. This value is too good.
#50: Ohio State DT Tyleik Williams
The drawback of the trades? Everyone I liked got drafted between #43 and #49. Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery. Arkansas DE Landon Jackson. Notre Dame S Xavier Watts. North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton. Texas DT Alfred Collins. Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen. OUCH!
Williams is a perfectly solid consolation prize. He's beefy yet remarkably quick at his massive size. I'm not sure about his specific fit in the defense, but Andrew Billings made no sense schematically and made himself indispensable. This will work itself out.
#52: Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo
I hate this pick and I have no idea where Skattebo is going in the draft. I do know, however, that Ben Johnson will want to run the ball like crazy and Skattebo will be a tone setter.
#72: Miami TE Elijah Arroyo
This is a great spot with four players that I really like that fit the roster really well: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr., Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea, Utah State WR Jalen Royals, and West Virginia OL Wyatt Milum. But Arroyo is too enticing, despite his injury history. He can absolutely fly and take the lid off of a defense from the middle of the field.
#82: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
Ultimately, Winston's draft stock took a massive hit due to his partially torn ACL in early September. But an early September partial ACL tear means that Winston should be able to play a full rookie season, bringing his massive ceiling to the roster. He's the prudent choice here, especially because there are more WRs in the coming rounds that I like.
#121: Colorado State WR Tory Horton
Horton is long and fast. He's a great addition to this WR room.
#149: Cal CB Nohl Williams
Williams had a decent Combine, but his biggest draws remain his length and kick returning ability. He's a nice addition here with little pressure to contribute early.
#235: Miami WR Samuel Brown
Brown is a great athlete. He's not a good football player yet. We'll see where this goes.
#242: UCLA Kain Medrano
Medrano is a former WR who is wildly undersized -- he needs to put on 20 pounds. But he should have a chance to contribute on special teams given his speed and explosiveness while he adds weight.
Here's the assembled roster:
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Cam Skattebo, Ian Wheeler
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Elijah Arroyo, Austin Hooper
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Brandin Cooks, Tory Horton, Tyler Scott, Samuel Brown
OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kelvin Banks Jr.
OG (4): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie, Bill Murray
C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, Shemart Stewart, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy
DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Tyleik Williams, Zacch Pickens, FREE AGENT
ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT
OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, Kain Medrano
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Nohl Williams
S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Kevin Winston Jr., Jaylon Jones
SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT
Here's the PFF simulator screenshot:
This is probably my least favorite mock. But there's still a ton of depth additions here to a roster that desperately needs it. I get scared running mocks at this point without trades.
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