Thursday, February 27, 2025

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: What If Ben Johnson Follows the Detroit Blueprint Up Front?

It's surely a fools errand to read too much specifically what Detroit Lions GM Brad Holmes did as a predictor of what new Bears coach Ben Johnson will want to see in Chicago...right? I don't know. So, in an effort to consider an alternative path this offseason, here's a Bears' mock offseason incorporating the following core concepts from Detroit:

  1. The offensive line is key. But, more specifically, the OTs and the C are key. The Gs? They're less important if LT-C-RT are strong.
    1. The RG spot, specifically, was a revolving door in Detroit. From Evan Brown in 2022 to Graham Glasgow in 2023 to Kevin Zeitler in 2024, Detroit never invested heavily in that spot. And when Jonah Jackson hit free agency as the top LG? Detroit let him jump to LA.
  2. Explosive offensive players rule the day and they need to exist at all three skill spots: WR, RB, and TE.
    1. Johnson is saying the right things about D'Andre Swift right now, but it's hard to believe that Johnson wants Swift as RB1.
  3. Rotations are essential at DT. But not at DE.
    1. But maybe this only applies if you have a true DE1?
  4. WR4 consistently gets good run.
Regarding point #1, I went in search of a big upgrade over Braxton Jones in free agency, but -- no disrespect to Ronnie Stanley or Alaric Jackson -- I don't see an obvious one. If Jones was healthy, could I see the Bears drafting his replacement in April, then trading Jones at the draft? Sure. But he's not, so it still seems most likely the the LG in 2025 is a draftee with a potential future at LT if Jones doesn't work out long term.

Free Agency
I'm relying on free agency decisions and cap projections from my last mock offseason here, except that dead money has increased to $5.4M in light of DeMarcus Walker's release and estimated cap space has increased to $78.3M for the same reason. So, I'll assume that the Bears enter free agency with about $58.3M to spend, keeping $20M of powder dry to sign their draft class, extend Kyler Gordon, and make in-season moves.
  1. Sign DT Milton Williams to a 3-year, $63M deal with $40M guaranteed. The 3 technique spot was decent but not great last year. Gervon Dexter improved dramatically, but that improvement came after a truly dreadful rookie season. So, the Bears go to the top of the market for the best interior pass rusher available.
  2. Sign DE Chase Young to a 2-year, $35M deal with $20M guaranteed. Yes, it's comical to reunite Sweat and Young. But even though it feels like Young has been around a for a long time, he'll be just 26 this year. He's a big upgrade over Walker.
  3. Sign C Drew Dalman to a 4-year, $46M deal with $27.5M guaranteed. Dalman becomes priority #1 in this scenario. Take care of the C spot first.
  4. Sign RG Brandon Scherff to a 1-year, $6M deal with $5M guaranteed. This looks a lot like Kevin Zeitler's deal in Detroit last year.
  5. Sign WR Brandin Cooks to a 1-year, $3M deal with $2M guaranteed. Cooks has been a consistent producer for a long time, but he's nearing the end...and that's fine! He's here as WR3 if the draft doesn't break right or, ideally, WR4 if it does.
  6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. TE3 ideally; TE2 if necessary.
  7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is old and hurt, but the Bears need some insurance here.
  8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping a productive RFA.
Even without accounting for lower year-one cap hits and assuming equal AAVs, this free agency period uses $58.3M of net cap space, making this my most aggressive free agency spend to date. Notably, however, only Williams and Dalman carry significant cap ramifications into 2026. There is a lot of patching here.

NFL Draft
Unfortunately, despite that free agency explosion, there are still some notable needs on this roster, namely:
  • LG / possible future LT
  • RB1/2
  • TE2
  • WR3
  • DE3/4
There's a heavy defensive flavor at the top of free agency, so expect to see a heavy offensive flavor to the draft class.

Bears trade #10 to Denver for #20, #52, #121, and a 2026 2nd
Penn State DE Abdul Carter and Michigan DT Mason Graham were gone. So I traded down.

#20: Texas A&M Shemar Stewart
This is a great outcome. If Stewart tests well at the Combine, he won't make it here given his massive frame. If he combines that size with quickness, he's the unicorn that every team always wants. But he's here in this mock. Yippee!

Marshall's Mike Green is also intriguing, but the size difference -- Stewart is nearly 40 pounds heavier -- is too compelling to ignore.

#39: North Dakota State G Grey Zabel
Luck is so nice when it's in your favor! Zabel getting here opens up the draft board in a way that no other player can. He's a Day One starter on the interior. If he proves to have sufficient length to kick out to LT, great! If he doesn't? Who cares? He might be Dalman's successor at C instead. Zabel is a great fit here if he lasts this long.

#41: Michigan TE Colston Loveland
Speaking of great fits...Loveland is the dream here. This is a class with three idyllic TEs: Penn State's Tyler Warren and Loveland as traditional, big-bodied TEs and Bowling Green's Harold Fannin Jr. as an H-back Swiss Army Knife. But Warren and Loveland are the preferred targets.

Bears trade #52 and #198 to Atlanta for #46
There's a very specific target here and a group of teams with big needs at this spot. Given this trade price, this is a good deal.

#46: Texas DT Alfred Collins
Collins is decidedly not a need here, but he is definitely one of my favorite players in this entire class. He reminds me a lot of DeForest Buckner. Admittedly, he has a ways to go to get there. But the ceiling is massive.

#72: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
This is a brutal spot with three players that I really like that fit the roster really well: Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea, Utah State WR Jalen Royals, and Winston. Ultimately, Winston's draft stock took a massive hit due to his partially torn ACL in early September. But an early September partial ACL tear means that Winston should be able to play a full rookie season, bringing his massive ceiling to the roster. He's the prudent choice here, especially because there are more WRs in the coming rounds that I like.

#121: UCF RB RJ Harvey
Harvey's flaws are voluminous. He's undersized at 5'8". His blocking is bad. He's not ever going to be a power back. I'm not even sure that he's an NFL RB right now.

So why the heck is he the pick here? Speed. Speed speed speed. Harvey is extremely fast and, thus, he's explosive at his best. The Bears need explosive talents on offense. Let's do it.

Bears trade RB D'Andre Swift to Los Angeles Chargers for #123
I'm guessing that Swift's trade value ranges from about pick #100 to pick #150. So, here we are in the middle. Trading Swift leaves $2.7M of dead cap money but frees up $6.7M more.

#123: UCONN OT Chase Lundt
Lundt isn't my kind of prospect. But there's so much that is seriously interesting here. He moves really well at 6'8". That alone piques my interest. I could see a future where he gets snaps as the 6th OL with regularity. I have no idea where his career goes. But I'm intrigued.

#149: Illinois WR Pat Bryant
I really wanted Colorado State WR Tory Horton to get here, but he surprisingly went at #147 to a Carolina team that had just drafted Jalen Royals earlier. Huh. No matter. Pat Bryant made it here and I like me some Pat Bryant.

#235: UNLV WR Ricky White
White is slight of frame, but comes with good speed and special teams expectations. That's a fine choice here.

#242: Jacksonville State G Clay Webb
Webb is a redshirt player who needs to add at least 15 pounds to have a chance to play in the NFL.

Here's the assembled roster:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): Roschon Johnson, RJ Harvey, Ian Wheeler, FREE AGENT
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Colston LovelandAustin Hooper
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Brandin CooksPat Bryant, Tyler Scott, Ricky White
OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Chase Lundt
OG (4): Brandon Scherff, Grey Zabel, Kiran Amegadjie, Clay Webb
C (2): Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Chase Young, Shemar Stewart, Austin Booker, Dominique Robinson
DT (5): Milton Williams, Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Alfred Collins, Zacch Pickens
ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT
OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT
S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Kevin Winston Jr.Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's the PFF simulator screenshot:




Does this roster look better than my other recent mocks? I don't know. But it could be more in the vein of what Johnson wants, except at RB, where I really left this roster thin. Once the Bears decide to trade Swift, I'd expect another free agent RB to join the fold.

Nevertheless, I love the top five draftees here. They'd all be expected to play big roles in 2025 and come with exceptional ceilings. It would be fun watching these guys develop.

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