So let's build those 2026 Bears!
Internal Decisions
As with before, Ben Johnson will be the head coach, and we'll assume that the coordinators remain the same.
Turning to the roster, the Bears find themselves in a salary cap crunch for the first time in a long time. I always allocate $4M to the Practice Squad, allocate $5M of net cap space for signing the Draft class, and assume that the Bears need $10M for in-season maneuvering. With the Practice Squad accounted for, the Bears currently have $321.9M in spending against an adjusted cap of $309.4M -- yikes! They're $12.5M over the cap and need to get to $15M under in order to sign draftees and operate during the 2026 season. Thankfully, there are a lot of ways to adjust their cap situation and the 2027 roster figures to have a much larger cushion, so kicking some cap hits down the road would be fine. So let's play!
Instead, there are a few players who offer meaningful cap savings if they are jettisoned and a few players who seem ripe for contract restructures/extensions. Namely:
- Cut LB Tremaine Edmunds
- Edmunds is a solid player. He's roughly an average starter. He's being paid as a top-10 LB. There's no trade value. He will be cut, removing his $17,437,500 cap hit while leaving only $2,437,500 of dead money behind.
- Trade TE Cole Kmet
- Kmet remains a solid player. Unlike Edmunds, there should be a ready market for Kmet. He's wildly overpaid as a TE2 with an $11.6M cap hit in 2026, but for a TE1? That's totally fine and he'll be just 27. I'm not sure what his exact market should be, but I assume that he'd return a 4th or 5th. I figure that the Chargers or the Jets make sense as potential targets, pairing Kmet with a younger TE seeking to establish himself. Kmet's acquiring team would acquire him on a two-year, $20M deal with no guaranteed money left; he'll leave behind a $3.2M dead cap hit.
- Restructure WR D.J. Moore
- Yes, I'm aware that Moore blew it on the final Bears offensive play of the season. Had he continued running to the open space that his route surely called for, the Bears likely kick a field goal on the next play and head to Seattle. Moore also hasn't exactly thrived in competing for targets with recent arrivals Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland. And yet, when pressed into true #1 WR territory again late in the season, he starred against Green Bay twice and reminded everyone that he can be an ace. He's an ultra-willing blocker who plays hurt. He fits the identity of what Ben Johnson wants. Trading Moore would remove his $28.5M cap number, leaving just $12M of dead cap behind in 2026 and nothing in future years. But I'd rather keep him. So, let's convert $16M of his $23,485,000 base salary into a restructure bonus. This increases his dead cap hit in future years, but it also reduces his 2026 cap hit from $28.5M down to $15,485,000. It also increases his 2027 and 2028 cap hits to $32.5M each and his 2029 hit to $28.5M. Functionally, this guarantees his deal through 2027. Hardly onerous.
- Extend C Drew Dalman
- Dalman is a perfect fit for the Bears offense and his addition to the offensive line completely flipped the script on what had been a decade of futility at the pivot. So let's keep him around. The Bears give Dalman a two-year, $30M extension with a $4M signing bonus. As part of the deal, they convert $8M of his 2026 base salary into a signing bonus. Dalman gets $4M of additional money in 2026, guarantees his 2027 deal, and functionally guarantees his 2028 job. It's a great deal for a C, and it frees up some key space for the Bears, reducing his 2026 cap hit from $14M to $6M.
- Restructure DE Montez Sweat
- As with Moore, this one is easy. The 2026 Bears need Sweat. He's still a good player. I'd be open to a modest extension, effectively adding another year or two at his $25M annual salary. Instead, we'll convert $10M of his $20.9M base salary to a restructure bonus, reducing his cap figure from $25,085,294 to $20,085,294.
- This does increase Sweat's 2027 cap number by $5M. I'm not particularly concerned about that because Dayo Odeyingbo only leaves $2M behind against the cap in 2027 if he's cut next year.
- Cut LB Amen Ogbongbemiga
- Ogbongbemiga was a plus special teamer, but his body is failing him. Cutting him removes his $2.625M cap hit while leaving just $375K of dead money behind.
- Cut RB Roschon Johnson
- Roschon appears out of favor with the current regime. His cut doesn't functionally save any cap space.
Internal free agency offers three likely targets:
- Keep ERFA OT Theo Benedet
- This one is easy. $1,005,000 for a swing OT? Definitely.
- Sign LB D'Marco Jackson
- I'm not certain on Jackson's market. He played 370 very good snaps for the Bears, especially late in the season. But he rode the pine when both Edwards and Edmunds were healthy. I think he's a starter and that Dennis Allen is most likely to give him that shot. So let's say he signs for $4.5M over two years with the chance to start.
- Sign S Kevin Byard
- Man, I'm going to miss Jaquan Brisker if he leaves. Brisker solidified what had been a truly awful spot when he arrived from Penn State, and he continually produced when healthy. Alas, his numerous concussions make him very difficult to extend. Enter Byard. Byard is old, turning 33 in training camp this year. But man, he is both durable and productive having played north of 1,000 snaps every year since his rookie year. Spotrac projects him for $15.7M over two years. Let's say he gets a $5M signing bonus, a $3.5M base salary in 2026, and a $6.2M base salary in 2027. That yields a $6M cap figure in 2026.
- Sign DE Daniel Hardy
- Hardy is an RFA, not an ERFA. For argument's sake, let's say he comes back for the league minimum.
- Sign G Jordan McFadden
- As with Hardy, McFadden is an RFA, not an ERFA. For argument's sake, let's say he comes back for the league minimum after stunningly starting against the Rams.
- Sign S Jaylon Jones
- Jones is no star, but he's a playable body on special teams and he should be cheap. Let's assume that he signs for the veteran's minimum and counts for the minimum against the cap, too
The net result: oof, there are some holes...but the Bears are now $31M under the cap.
Free Agency
Last year, the approach in free agency was clear: add talent in the interior offensive line and along the defensive line. Enter Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Grady Jarrett before the Draft weekend additions of Ozzy Trapilo, Shemar Turner, and Luke Newman. The additions on the offensive line were dramatically more impactful than the defensive additions. So it goes.
This year, the roster needs a few pieces, but it doesn't need nearly as many as last year. Thoughts:
- Pass rush is desperately needed. This is the biggest hole on the roster. It must be solved. I do think that the Bears could/should carry six DEs and four DTs. If the top four DEs are Montez Sweat, Austin Booker, Dayo Odeyingbo, and a top new addition, there will be the ability to kick Odeyingbo inside in pass rushing situations alongside Shemar Turner and/or Grady Jarrett.
- Safeties -- yikes! Even though Byard is back, he and Jones are the only safeties on the roster. Time for more bodies.
- Cornerback looks stuffed. If Zah Frazier and Terell Smith are both on track, there are six quality CBs already targeted for the roster. Cool! Lost in Nahshon Wright's wonderful surprise season (that really petered out at the end) was a tremendous rebound season from Tyrique Stevenson. His strip against Dallas and diving interception against Las Vegas showed that he meant business. He looks ready for a big role.
- What to do about LT? Trapilo was a godsend. His patellar exploded. Kiran Amegadjie lost the year to injury. Can Benedet or Amegadjie cover LT?
- Who replaces Kmet as TE2? After Gerald Everett flopped in the role, the Bears need to replace Kmet with someone useful.
I'm deeply curious to see what Poles elects to do at LT. For now, I'm going to assume that the 2026 LT is on the roster already, whether that's Benedet, Amegadjie, or even Thuney. So, instead, let's hunt for TE2 and pass rush help. With roughly $16M of net cap space to spend, we're going big-game hunting here.
- Sign TE Taysom Hill
- Boy, this would be fun, eh? Hill follows Allen to Chicago to play a TE3/gadget role for Ben Johnson, who surely falls in love with Hill in a hurry. Spotrac projects Hill for just $2.1M on a one-year deal.
- Sign DE ????????
- Spotrac projects the following deals for the top DEs:
- Trey Hendrickson: Two years, $51M
- Below-average run grades, elite pass rushing
- Season-ending hip injury in 2025; required surgery
- Odafe Oweh: Three years, $58M
- Plus pass rusher, average run defender
- Jaelan Phillips: Three years, $52M
- Good at everything
- ACL and Achilles injuries in 2023 and 2024
- Khalil Mack: One year, $18.4M
- Pass rush grade is faltering and he's old; run defense is great
- Joey Bosa: Two years, $27.5M
- Elite pass rushing; lengthy injury history
- Arnold Ebiketie: Three years, $27M
- Average run defender, good pass rusher
- Dre'Mont Jones: Two years, $20.7M
- Below-average run defender, above-average pass rusher
- There are two distinct approaches that the Bears can take here:
- Sign the most complete DE possible; OR
- Sign the best pass rusher, either cheaply is he sticks at run defense or expensively if he's good at everything.
- It's time to put all of that cap maneuvering to work: Sign DE Odafe Oweh. Oweh possesses the kind of ultra-athletic profile that Poles loves, posting a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine with ludicrous length via his 34.5" arms. With Odeyingbo headed for the chopping block in 2027 and Sweat perhaps following thereafter, Oweh comes in on target for the DE1 job as soon as next year. Let's say he gets $47M guaranteed via a $12M signing bonus with base salaries of $10M in Y1, $17M in Y2, and $19M in Y3. That would yield cap numbers of $14M in Y1, $21M in Y2, and $23M in Y4. I have to suspect that Oweh's deal with end up heftier than this, but we'll roll with this for now.
Draft
With this free agency period, the only absolute necessities are finding a starting safety next to Byard, a playable TE, and a rotation DT. Cool!
Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to Los Angeles Chargers for #123
As mentioned above.
Bears trade #25 and #163 to New England for #30 and #62
Whew. This was tricky. I wanted to stay at #25 and draft Miami RT Francis Mauigoa following his inexplicable slide. Or Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq. Or Washington WR Denzel Boston. But then this trade materialized and dang, I had to do it.
#30: Bears draft Georgia DT Christen Miller
Miller is a good prospect. He doesn't look like a star in the making, but he does look like the interior anchor of an elite run defense along with possessing enough pass rush upside to be a good pick here.
#57: Bears draft Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr.
I don't love taking an LB this high, but with both Hill and Missouri's Josiah Trotter on the board, it seemed prudent as there's a huge drop off after those two. Hill should start early in his career and possesses the kind of ceiling that Tremaine Edmunds did, too.
Bears trade #62, #239, and #241 to Las Vegas for #67 and #102
Once again, there were a number of very attractive options on the board here. Turning one possible starter into two possible starters was the way to go.
#67: Bears draft Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers
The Bears need a blocking TE. Stowers is not that. Stowers is, however, an elite receiving target. He probably needs to add 15 pounds of mass and learn how to block from scratch, but the pass-catching upside is absolutely impossible to ignore. And Stowers took a remarkably interesting path to being the 2025 Mackey Award winner, starting his college career as a backup QB at Texas A&M before transferring to New Mexico State and ultimately Vanderbilt. This is a big challenge to Ben Johnson. Stowers is worth the risk given his immense upside.
#89: Bears draft Penn State S Zakee Wheatley
My biggest risk was hoping that Wheatley would make it here. Pfew! I think he's a star in the making. I don't think he'll actually last this long on Draft weekend. But dang, he'd be a great fit. He's a turnover machine.
#102: Bears draft Texas Tech DT Skyler Gill-Howard
Gill-Howard's story is awesome. He was a Division II walk-on LB with a wrestling background. He's undersize at 6'1", 290 lbs., but man, he is quick for a big man. He contrasts nicely with Miller. In an offseason where rushing the passer is paramount, Gill-Howard fits the bill.
I had to pass on Penn State RB Kaytron Allen to make this pick. It hurt.
#123: Bears draft Texas S Michael Taaffe
Another former walk-on draftee? Yup! Taaffe has captain written all over him. So even though he's a bit undersized and not an athletic standout, he looks like a keeper. He played a lot of football at Texas, too, so if the Bears are going to rely on rookies at safety, it helps that Wheatley and Taaffe have both played a ton.
#129: TCU WR Eric McAlister
The last time I took McAlister in a mock draft, it was at #207! Well, he's climbing. McAlister still comes with some off-field baggage, but he's got the body of an NFL WR and enjoyed a massive season this year for the Horned Frogs (72/1,190/10).
The resulting roster looks very good, though there are spots available for veteran free agents and undrafted rookies.
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT
TE (4): Colston Loveland, Taysom Hill, Eli Stowers, FREE AGENT
WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, Eric McAlister
OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Kiran Amegadjie, Theo Benedet
OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Jordan McFadden
C (2): Drew Dalman, Luke Newman
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Odafe Oweh, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy
DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Christen Miller, Skyler Gill-Howard
ILB (1): D'Marco Jackson
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Anthony Hill Jr., Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite
CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier
S (5): Kevin Byard, Zakee Wheatley, Jaylon Jones, Michael Taaffe, FREE AGENT
SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT
Proof from PFF below:
Skipping the OL and RB rooms in this Draft makes me uncomfortable. But dang, I love the additions on defense and Stowers and McAlister both offer quality pass catching options. In retrospect, I should've gone bigger on the TE2 spot between either Austin Hooper or Noah Fant. Alas, that's not how free agency and the Draft work.
I ended up $15.7M under the salary cap, so I probably kept more dry powder than necessary, though rolling that unused cap space over to 2027 isn't a problem. Some of those dollars will probably be spent on RB3 heading into training camp.
Regardless, this team has a ton of added speed on defense with a bunch of new pass rushing juice up front. The passing offense gets a nice boost, too, with the arrivals of Stowers and McAlister. But let's be honest: Oweh's addition is the one that moves the needle here and the risk taken at LT -- that the 2026 LT is already on the roster -- will probably define the 2026 season.
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