While it's possible that the Bears recover another $4M from Dalman's signing bonus, it's likely that they enter free agency with roughly this amount of cap space absent some significant contract restructures.
What does this mean? Well, don't expect GM Ryan Poles to go big-game hunting. Could he do so anyway? Sure! I mean, it's Ryan Poles! But I'll be stunned if Maxx Crosby finds his way to Chicago. Let's instead focus on who might actually head this way.
Internal Decisions
The lower-than-expected cap figure of $301.2M was a real blow to the Bears. There just aren't a ton of options for reducing cap figures for returning players. I've been low on Cole Kmet for years, but it sure seems like Poles plans to keep him around. If that's the case, hopefully it comes with a tight extension to lower his 2026 cap hit without adding much future guaranteed money. For now, let's say that there are no restructures and no further significant releases.
The D.J. Moore Trade
Ah, D.J. There's some bizarre notion out there that Moore regressed terribly in 2025. I don't get it. Did his raw numbers slip dramatically? Yes, of course. That's what happens when you go from averaging 135 targets per year, as Moore did from 2019-24, all the way down to 85 targets in 2025. The arrivals of Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland completely reshaped the Bears' passing offense and Moore was the big loser. However, if we apply 135 targets to his season instead of the actual 85 and assume that he produces the same with the increased targets -- as he has for six straight years before 2025! -- Moore would've posted a 80/1,084/10 line. Baller. Of course, he didn't actually post that line, so it's understandable that Poles opted to move Moore from his #3 WR role for cap relief. But his trade does create a new hole as only Burden, Rome Odunze, and Jahdae Walker remain on the roster.
As for the trade itself: dang, that's good value for Moore. While I still think that D.J. has plenty left in the tank, he is outrageoulsy durable -- he has only missed two games in his eight-year career -- and the Bills acquired a pretty nice contract for a plausible #1 WR in his 20s, there's new risk with his profile that wasn't there before coming off of a year in which he got passed over by numerous other quality options. And the Bears, quite frankly, needed the cap relief in order to address other needs.
The trade: the Bears sent Moore and #163 to Buffalo for #60. On the three draft charts, that pegs Moore's value as follows:
- Jimmy Johnson Chart
- Bears Send: 26.2
- Bears Get: 300
- NET: 273.8 (equivalent to pick #63 (late-2nd))
- Chase Stuart Chart
- Bears Send: 2.2
- Bears Get: 8.5
- NET: 6.3 (equivalent to pick #85 (mid-3rd))
- Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
- Bears Send: 419
- Bears Get: 925
- NET: 506 (equivalent to pick #137 (early-5th))
For what it's worth, I think it's fair to question the Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart when it comes to trade values. There's no NFL team that would trade a mid-2nd round pick for a pair of mid-5ths. That's laughable. In the end, let's peg Moore's value as an early 3rd. That sounds fair. I still don't love the trade, but with that value coming back, it's fair enough given the significant cap issues facing the club.
Free Agency
I haven't left much space for Poles to address the voluminous needs on this roster, including but not limited to:
- LT
- C
- DE2
- MLB
- S
- S (again)
- WR3
- DT3
- Depth all over the place, especially at S
There are oodles of targets that I'd love to see join the club, starting with DEs Odafe Oweh, Khalil Mack, and Arnold Ebiketie, and then moving to C Tyler Linderbaum. Guys like DT DJ Reader, DT Christian Wilkins (if he can still play), LB Leo Chenal, and LB Alex Singleton would be fun. And the barrage of safeties will be attractive, including Kam Curl, Kevin Byard, Jabrill Peppers, Coby Bryant, Jaquan Brisker, Alohi Gilman, Nick Cross, and Tony Jefferson, among a few others. But the resources are limited. I'm using PFF contract projections here. Let's go.
- DE Arnold Ebiketie: 2-years, $16M
- This is DE3 money for Ebiketie. He's the opposite of what Dennis Allen wants, but the Bears desperately need pass rush productivity and Ebiketie has delivered that throughout his career despite underwhelming run defense.
- S Alohi Gilman: 2-years, $13.5M
- This is probably functionally a one-year deal. That's fine. It's a strong draft class and one starter will surely come from the college ranks.
- WR DeAndre Hopkins: 1-year, $2M
- Have the Bears become a destination for a ring-chasing vet? That would be cool!
- DT Shelby Harris: 1-year, $2M
- Ben Johnson has familiarity with Harris from their time together in Detroit. He's clearly nearing the end of his career, but he should provide solid production before it's all over.
- TE Charlie Kolar: 1-year, $1.75M
- A nice TE3 who could plausibly handle TE2 duties if Kmet gets shipped out.
- C Luke Fortner: 1-year, $1.005M
- Fortner was dreadful for the Jaguars in 2022-23 and didn't make it through his rookie deal. Forced into duty with New Orleans last year, he was pretty good. Hopefully he doesn't start but it wouldn't be the worst thing to have a plausible body in house prior to the Draft.
- LB D'Marco Jackson: 1-year, $1.005M
- Jackson is actually a pretty high priority. He played great in limited run last year but also played just 76 snaps across his first three professional seasons. The Bears can likely offer a starting job.
- S Jaylon Jones: 1-year, $1.005M
- Still no star, Jones is a solid citizen in a room desperately needing them.
This trip through free agency leaves the Bears entering the Draft with only Theo Benedet and Kiran Amegadjie on the roster as possible LT options. Yikes!
Draft
With that imperfect yet generally productive free agency period complete, the Bears look to the Draft to add the last batch of new talent to the roster.
Unfortunately, this Draft featured a wild run on DL early. My options at #25 were limited, but thankfully, one strong choice remained.
#25: Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald
McDonald isn't my favorite prospect, but for a team with a dreadful run defense in 2025, McDonald is just what the doctor ordered.
Bears trade #57 to Arizona for #65, #104, and a 2026 4th
I remain deeply concerned about the roster's depth, so nabbing additional picks when there aren't surefire draft targets on the board is the way to go. This trade is superb value.
#60: Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton
DDS has always had better measurables than production. But man, the measurables are insane. He just blew the lid off of the Combine and brings the prototypical physique in the Bears defense. He'd be a great get.
#65: Iowa RT Gennings Dunker
Dunker was a pure RT at Iowa who also worked at G at the Senior Bowl. The Bears have needs at LT and C, so why take Dunker? Simple: this is a bet that drafting awesome OL from Iowa is always the best idea. Get them in house and figure out the rest later.
#89: Arizona S Genesis Smith
Smith has all of the right features to make the Bears defense work in the back end. He had a productive Combine with his run defense the only reason he might last this long
I wanted to draft Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt instead, but duty calls. The Bears need a starter at S.
#104: Penn State S Zakee Wheatley
I'll be overjoyed if Poles manages to nab Wheatley in the 3rd round. Getting him early in the 4th is an outrageous victory. Wheatley is a ballhawking turnover machine with surprisingly excellent run defense. He's old (24), but that's primarily the result of waiting for his turn in a loaded Penn State S room.
#129: Duke OL Brian Parker II
Ugh. This one hurt. I really wanted to take TCU WR Eric McAlister or Baylor TE Michael Trigg, but Parker is too intriguing and too important in light of Dalman's retirement. When I read about Parker and saw his testing, I immediately thought of Bucs' 2024 1st rounder Graham Barton. Parker isn't as good of a prospect and Barton hasn't been great as a pro, but a multi-year Duke starting OT moving to C in the NFL can work and Parker's Combine suggests that he'll be able to move well.
#239: Utah LB Lander Barton
Barton looks like an NFL player. With lots of experience at LB, some time at H-back, and a profile that screams NFL special teamer, he seems like a good bet to make the roster. Punting LB until this point does put undue stress on Ruben Hyppolite to be OK at football. Yikes!
#241: Indiana TE Riley Nowakowski
He's wildly undersized, but Nowakowski has lots of NFL traits.
The resulting roster again looks very good, though there are spots available for veteran free agents and undrafted rookies.
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT
TE (4): Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet, Charlie Kolar, Riley Nowakowski
WR (5): Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, DeAndre Hopkins, FREE AGENT
OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Kiran Amegadjie, Theo Benedet
OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Gennings Dunker
C (3): Luke Fortner, Luke Newman, Brian Parker II
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Arnold Ebiketie, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Dani Dennis-Sutton
DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Shelby Harris, Kayden McDonald
ILB (1): D'Marco Jackson
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite, Lander Barton
CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier
S (4): Alohi Gilman, Genesis Smith, Zakee Wheatley, Jaylon Jones
SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT
Proof from PFF below:
That's a seriously good looking team, although long-term injuries to Trapilo, Odeyingbo, Edwards, and Sewell overstate the extent to which holes are plugged. The cap table is tight in 2026, but things really open up in 2027 even as a huge Darnell Wright extension figures to enter the party.
We'll see where Poles takes things on Monday. Here's hoping that he elects to hoard picks instead of sending them to Vegas!
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