Before grading the picks, there are two key issues to point out.
- No grade inflation here. A "C" is average. A "D" is below-average or poor. A "B" is above-average or good. An "F" is failing. An "A" is elite.
- A General Manager's job isn't to make his coach happy; it isn't to take the best player at each Draft spot; it isn't to be the most efficient GM in free agency; it isn't to win trades by fleecing opposing GMs; and it isn't to save money for ownership. It's much simpler than that: a GM's job is to build a team that wins. There are lots of ways to do this, but don't lose focus: this is the job.
Before we advance, here's a reminder of how I conceived of the Bears' needs entering the Draft:
- DT (by a mile)
- S
- C
- DE
- TE
- WR
- CB
- LB
- RB
- G
- OT
OK, with that in mind, let's evaluate Ryan Poles's work through Day Two.
#25: Bears Draft Oregon S Dillon Thieneman
Good. Thieneman was the second safety drafted and, alongside Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, comprised half of the clear second tier behind Ohio State star Caleb Downs. Poles sat tight at #25 and got his man. Thieneman began the crumbling of the James Franklin era last fall by showing off his trademark skill: his ability to read and even predict what opposing offenses would do. He was observably a key leader for the Oregon defense despite only spending a year there after transferring from Purdue.
Thankfully, this isn't an underwhelming athlete who produces thanks to his brain. Thieneman isl instead, a slightly undersized safety with ultra-elite athleticism. Given his experience, athleticism, and football intelligence, Thieneman looks like a surefire day one starter.
The value proposition is poor in two ways. First, safeties just don't go this high. Across the last seven Drafts, only five safeties have been drafted in the first round:
- 2025: Malaki Starks at #27
- 2022: Kyle Hamilton at #14, Daxton Hill at #31, and Lewis Cine at #32
- 2019: Jonathan Abram at #27
Yikes! Second, while the Bears desperately needed a starting-caliber safety, they figure to include someone named Neville Gallimore as well as Grady Jarrett's corpse heavily in their DT rotation. The opportunity cost of the Thieneman pick was massive, and it would surely make Poles desperate to find a DT on Friday.
At the time of the Thieneman pick, I didn't know that McNeil-Warren would be available at #57. That was a stunner. It certainly makes the value proposition of drafting Thieneman at #25, eschewing the remaining members of the top group of defensive linemen, even worse.
But, at its core, the Thieneman pick was a good one and Poles made it while sitting on his hands at #25. That's good business.
Grade: B
#57: Bears Draft Iowa C Logan Jones
Well this one is seriously hard for me to evaluate. The pros and cons are voluminous:
- PROS
- Jones is an Iowa OL. The success rate on those guys is outrageous.
- Despite being undersized, Jones is an ultra-elite athlete. For a team that asks its center to zone block and run like crazy, that athleticism is paramount.
- Centers always need a year to develop, so the only way to have an in-house C for 2027 is to get one now. Jones is an ideal backup before he steps in for Garrett Bradbury next year.
- Did I mention the Iowa part? At some point in the past few weeks, I told my brother that I liked Auburn's Connor Lew and Florida's Jake Slaughter a tick more...but I still wanted Jones because, well, give me the OL from Iowa every day.
- The comps to former Hawkeye Tyler Linderbaum and former Bear Drew Dalman are strong: somewhat undersized, shorter arms, and top-notch speed, explosiveness, and agility.
- Jones won the Rimington Trophy as college football's best center last year. Nice.
- Jones addresses a key need for the Bears.
- CONS
- This was an overdraft. Of the 10 major Draft evaluation services, one had him at #79, another had him at #89, and the rest had him between #95 and #99.
- If Poles was looking to get out in front of a run on centers, his misread the class. Lew and Kansas State's Sam Hecht remain available after 100 picks.
- Jones has arms that are nearly half an inch shorter than Linderbaum and Dalman.
- Jones turns 25 in October. Dang, that's old.
- He's a second-round pick who figures to ride the pine in 2026. That's just the nature of the center market, but it's a bummer not to get a player who will contribute this year.
Add it all up and what do you get? A reach but the right reach. A pick with warts but hope, too.
Grade: C
Bears Trade #60 to Tennessee for #69 and #144
Ah, the Poles Draft weekend trade returns! The three Draft charts provide dramatically different reads on this deal:
- Jimmy Johnson Chart
- Bears Send: 300
- Bears Get: 279 (245 + 34)
- NET: -21 (equivalent to #176 (mid-6th))
- Chase Stuart Chart
- Bears Send: 8.5
- Bears Get: 10.6 (7.6 + 3.0)
- NET: +2.1 (equivalent to #164 (mid-6th))
- Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
- Bears Send: 925
- Bears Get: 1,335 (854 + 481)
- NET: +410 (equivalent to #166 (mid-6th))
So, two charts think the Bears picked up an extra 6th of value and one chart sees it the other way. In the end, the value is good, not great, but Poles is the GM holding the extra pick.
Grade: B
#69: Bears Draft Stanford TE Sam Roush
I love taking a TE here. I love taking an extremely athletic TE here. But Roush was not my guy. When I watch him, he seems a lot more like Cole Kmet than Colston Loveland, moving awkwardly with unimpressive body control despite his otherwise incredibly athletic testing. He's overdrafted here by a bit -- most services see him as a mid-to-late 3rd, not an early 3rd -- but this isn't an egregious miss.
He's a perplexing player. His PFF grades are terrible. His RAS (9.94) is nearly perfect. He has very similar testing numbers to what Kmet had with one glaring difference: Kmet had 33" arms (and Loveland had 32.75" arms) while Roush has 30.63" arms. Literally in the 1st percentile. What does that mean? His run blocking could be OK but his pass blocking should be a problem.
Roush should fulfill the blocking TE role in the run game with aplomb, and he should be able to play a key role in red zone settings as a run blocker and matchup problem. That's cool! It's just bizarre that his arms are so short such that pass blocking is likely a problem and perhaps not a solvable one.
Despite the generally positive commentary above, opportunity cost really rears its ugly head here. While I saw TE2/3 as a reasonably significant need, the absence of any defensive linemen from the class at this point kicked my concern level up in a big way.
Grade: C-
#89: Bears Draft LSU WR Zavion Thomas
Oh Ryan. Poles is good for one of these every class: an outrageously fast, athletic prospect who just isn't good at football. In 2022, it was old man WR Velus Jones at #71, who was a 25-year-old rookie. In 2023, it was former #1 prep recruit DT Zacch Pickens at #64. In 2024, it was OT Kiran Amegadjie at #75 (I'm still holding out hope that a healthy Amegadjie can find a role). In 2025, it was terrible LB Ruben Hyppolite, who was a 24-year-old rookie.
Thomas now joins that ignominious group. Poles is 0-for-4 on the group above, so Thomas has his work cut out for him to make it 1-for-5.
Some folks will talk up the versatility that Thomas will bring to the offense, having taken carries from the backfield, caught passes in the flat and downfield, and returning kicks. All of that is cool, except that Thomas hasn't been particularly good at any of these things. He does have a limited LSU pedigree, though, so that's nice. He just doesn't have the smooth football movement skills that would enable him to put his raw speed to work.
I'm OK with the Bears taking a WR in this Draft, but it's straight-up irresponsible to go C-TE-WR on Day Two given the state of the defensive line. Had this been UConn's Skyler Bell -- also an undersized WR who is an awesome athlete but one who has actually produced on the football field -- it still would've been irresponsible, but at least the player would've made sense at #89.
Thomas is a project who would've made a lot of sense 100 picks later. Remember that comment at the top about how the GM's job is to build a winning team? This is not a step in the right direction; it's organizational malpractice to set this pick on fire.
Grade: F-
Thankfully the Draft isn't done just yet. Before we wrap up, here are my top tagets for Day Three, where the Bears have picks #129, #144, #239, and #241, at least for now.
- Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton
- Would've been great 40 picks ago.
- Southeast Louisiana DT Kaleb Proctor
- Rotation player only to start, but one that can rush the passer.
- Oklahoma DT Grace Halton
- Similar to Proctor.
- Mississippi DT Zxavian Harris
- Mountain of a man.
- Clemson DT DeMonte Capehart
- Yet another NFL player from this wildly underwhelming DL.
- Penn State DT Zane Durant
- Durant runs really well, but gets washed out of way too many plays.
- Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy
- His knee might explode soon, but at this point it's definitely worth the shot.
- Penn State S Zakee Wheatley
- Really don't need another S, but I sure love Wheatley.
- Texas S Michael Taaffe
- Looks like a future special teams captain.
- Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton
- This is a bet on the idea that James Franklin is bad at developing talent. Possible? Yep.
- North Carolina State Justin Joly
- TE4 is quite the luxury.
- Texas TE Jack Endries
- TE4 is quite the luxury.
- USC S Kamari Ramsey
- A good player.
- Arizona S Genesis Smith
- Another good player.
- Baylor TE Michael Trigg
- TE4 is quite the luxury.
The dream of finding a useful DE starts and probably ends with DDS. It's very hard to see him making it to #129. At least one DT, on the other hand, should find his way to #129. If that's the case, perhaps this whole thing can be salvaged.
Although I put Singleton and a batch of TEs on this list, please don't tame more offensive players, Ryan. The defense needs some love unless you're going to find a way to trade for Josh Sweat and sneak him under the salary cap. Let's just try drafting a defensive lineman instead!
No comments:
Post a Comment