In the
interest of full disclosure, I began drafting this piece immediately after the
draft concluded, but I didn't want to post it until we actually knew which 2015
draftees signed with the club, hence the gap between drafting and posting.
Nevertheless, I didn't want to wait until mid-July, so I've made some
assumptions regarding the draftees and posted anyway.
As I have
every time I've posted a prospect ranking, I've altered the format just a bit
to provide more relevant information. For example, I've copied the
"risk" rating from national publications, with 1
representing Bryce Harper and 5 representing Brady Aiken. Expect a
fully detailed listing in October or November. Until then, let this whet your
appetite.
As an
extremely important note before beginning, neither Arismendy Alcantara nor
Javier Baez is eligible for this list. Were they eligible, they'd both push for
the top spot.
1. C/LF
Kyle Schwarber
Current
Level:
MLB Chicago (heading to Triple-A Iowa)
MLB ETA: April 2016
Grade: 65
Risk: 3
Tools: 60 hit, 70
power, 75 discipline, 40 glove, 50 arm, 40 run, 60 durability
Analysis: The risk
on Schwarber's offensive game is a 1: he's going to hit for power and he's
going to draw so many walks with so relatively few strikeouts that the on-base
skills will be constant. But the defensive risk is a 5 as he may be a terrible
catcher and he may not have the skillset to play an effective left field. If
he's defensively homeless, the overall package takes a massive hit. I think he
ends up playing a poor - but passable - left field and hits in the middle of
the order as part of the 21st century's murderer's row with Rizzo, Bryant, and
Soler.
2. SP
Duane Underwood
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 65 FB, 55
CB, 50 CH, 55 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Underwood
has cemented himself as the top pitching prospect in the organization through a
combination of stuff and performance. Rather strangely, Underwood has really
struggled to rack up strikeouts, yet his walk rate has dropped for the fourth
straight year and High-A hitters absolutely cannot square up the 20-year-old.
As each month passes, Underwood looks more and more like the legitimate
starting option that his big arm portends.
3. RF
Eloy Jimenez
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: August
2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 65 hit, 60
power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 60 arm, 50 run, 50 durability
Analysis: Eloy had
been exclusively about projection until he got stateside this year and
posted a huge .323/.363/.548 unofficial batting line in Extended Spring
Training. In addition to showing notable power and better-than-expected speed,
Jimenez struck out just 16.7% of his plate appearances, suggesting that his
approach may be even more advanced than was initially thought. With a smooth
swing and plenty of strength, Jimenez could be the rare hit-first right fielder
who produces plenty of extra-base power simply by virtue of hitting a boatload
of line drives instead of generating loft on the ball.
4. SP
Dylan Cease
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: June 2019
Grade: 60
Risk: 5
Tools: 70
FB, 60 CB, 30 CH, 40 command, 30 durability
Analysis: Cease is
the poster child for projection. He underwent Tommy John surgery almost
immediately after signing with the Cubs last summer, yet he returned throwing
in the upper 90s a few weeks ago. Cease is going to have command issues, both
by virtue of his raw but unharnessed arm and due to his recovery from surgery,
but the stuff is there to push for a job near the top of a Major League
rotation. He's the kind of massive risk that I like to take. Hopefully he'll
throw for a couple of months at Eugene to get his delivery heading in the right
post-operation direction.
5. SP
Carson Sands
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 40 CB, 60 CH, 50 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Sands has
the one thing I look for in a lefty above all else: the diving, tumbling
changeup that gives right-handed hitters fits. He struggled with walks in
Extended Spring Training, issuing 11 free passes over 14 innings, but he had
plenty of strikeouts and limited the hits against him, both encouraging
realities for the southpaw. Sands needs repetitions just like any other recent
draftee, but he has the look of a pitcher that could move more quickly than the
standard prep draftee given the changeup's advanced status. I'm excited to see
what Sands can do over the next year.
6. SS
Gleyber Torres
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: May 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 3
Tools: 65 hit, 45
power, 70 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 55 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Slapping a
"3" risk grade on an 18-year-old in Low-A sounds absurd, but Torres
has earned such a marker. The shortstop with a clean, quick stroke has proved
stunningly adept at managing the strike zone against full-season competition.
Although he has struck out nearly 25% of the time, his 10%+ walk rate is an
astounding accomplishment, especially when considering that Torres has hit for
almost no power thus far. His slight stature may cause some issues down the
road, yet as his power emerges, he should be able to maintain high on-base
percentages thanks to an excellent hit tool that his him sitting comfortably
north of .300 on the year. It remains to be seen if he'll need to shift to the
other side of second base, but legitimate middle infield gloves with high-.300
on-base skills have been in high demand forever and for good reason.
7. SP
Trevor Clifton
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: June 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
FB, 55 CB, 40 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Almost
impossibly, Clifton was the only prep pitcher drafted band signed y Jason
McLeod in the 2013 draft, the first draft under the current regime. Clifton's
mechanics were truly painful to watch coming out of high school, suggesting
that a future injury was a foregone conclusion. Thankfully, the minor league
staff has smoothed out his delivery in a major way, resulting in a clean
delivery from both the windup and the stretch. His fastball hasn't skipped a
beat, running up there in the 90s as it did before. The real growth - beyond
the mechanical improvement - has come in his 11-5 curveball that he throws with
regularity and confidence. I haven't seen enough of his changeup to grade it
confidently, but two above-average offerings and clean mechanics is a tremendous
jumping-off point for the 6'4" 20-year-old. I really like what I see.
Clifton sure looks like $375,000 well spent, even if there's plenty of
development between him and big-time prospect status.
8. RP
C.J. Edwards
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 60
Risk: 1
Tools: 70
FB, 55 CB, 60 CH, 60 command, 30 durability
Analysis: It may
seem strange to see a "1" risk grade in cahoots with a "30"
durability rating, but that's Edwards for you. The stuff is undeniably superb
with three above-average pitches including two true plus offerings and plenty
of command thereof. Unfortunately, Edwards doesn't ever figure to eclipse about
170 pounds, something that will keep him in the bullpen short- and long-term,
regardless of what the front office might suggest. No matter: Edwards can close
and he'll be a big addition to the roster this summer after he gets a few more
weeks at Triple-A under his belt.
9. SP
Jake Stinnett
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
FB, 50 CB, 30 CH, 30 command, 70 durability
Analysis: Stinnett
is already 23, but he may as well be 19 in terms of his development. That's not
a knock on him; it's a reality of his not having turned to pitching full-time
until late in college. Stinnett has the benefit of having a low-mileage arm,
yet he looks incredibly raw, like a hurler with a desperate need to throw a few
hundred more innings before having the chance to really develop a good feel for
his stuff. But having seen him throw a few games on video, I like this risk,
too. Stinnett is a strong athlete who is going through growing pains.
10.
CF Donnie Dewees
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 3
Tools: 55 hit, 45
power, 45 discipline, 55 glove, 25 arm, 65 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Dewees is
something of a strange pick, a player discussed as a mid-first rounder with
absolutely incredible production in college who nonetheless has some holes in
his game. Let's start with the bad: Dewees has a Juan Pierre-esque arm, his
swing doesn't appear to generate the bat speed that suggests he'll hit for
power, and his competition in the Atlantic-Sun Conference was likely subpar.
Now for the good: Dewees absolutely destroyed opposing pitchers, hit for
excellent power with a compact stroke, should hit for plenty of
average, and he runs very well. I could see Dewees flaming out in two
years as the level of competition overwhelms him while I could simultaneously
see him manning center field at Wrigley in about two year's time if the bat
plays up. He's a great pick at #47 overall: lots of upside and enough present
production to justify the pick.
11. SP
Erling Moreno
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60 FB, 35
CB, 60 CH, 60 command, 40 durability
Analysis: Moreno is
still just 18 and he enjoyed a strong, albeit brief, Extended Spring Training
Run this year. He should get plenty of additional innings to work his way back
into form at Eugene. I say that because 2014 Tommy John surgery certainly
derailed his development. Fortunately for the Cubs, 6'7" righties with
advanced changeups are extremely, so even having gone under the knife, Moreno
is a good prospect. He needs lots of time but plenty of pieces are in place.
12.
LF Billy McKinney
Current Level: Double-A Tennessee
Current Level: Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 70
hit, 40 power, 60 discipline, 45 glove, 45 arm, 45 run, 60
durability
Analysis: McKinney
is a polarizing prospect. Some evaluators see a 20-year-old posting a decent
line at Double-A, having completely obliterated High-A, with a great hit tool,
incredibly contact ability, and strong discipline with enough athleticism to
play a number of outfield positions. Others see a left fielder with little
power and a subpar defensive profile. Scouts are uniform in their belief that
McKinney lacks any kind of useful speed. I fall in the second camp with
McKinney, seeing a really nice swing with a good hit tool, but poor power and
an underwhelming glove. That profile doesn't play in left, though it might play
as a second-division starter in center if McKinney can maintain his career walk
rate. Unfortunately for McKinney, pitchers are going to challenge him unless he
can show the aptitude to hit for power, something that could curtail his on
base rates. He's an interesting prospect thanks to the bat, but his concerns
are very concerning.
13. SP
Jen-Ho Tseng
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 3
Tools: 55
FB, 55 CB, 55 CH, 60 command, 50 durability
Analysis: I was the
high man on Tseng last fall. Unfortunately, the command-dependent righty has
pitched only to decent results at Myrtle Beach thus far. Tseng lacks strikeout
stuff and although he maintains a strong walk rate in the low 2s, he needs to
have his arsenal take a jump or two to project as anything more than a back-end
arm. I still love the command profile and think that Tseng will be a useful
contributor at the top level. It's just tougher to see an impact arm given his
dearth of strikeouts.
14. RP
Pierce Johnson
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: May
2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 60
FB, 70 CB, 40 CH, 45 command, 40 durability
Analysis: Another
year, another injury for Johnson as a lat strain has cost the righty the first
two months of the season. Despite my consistent concerns about his changeup to
date, I was willing to stick with Johnson as a starter through the winter, but
now, with additional developmental time lost, I think he has to be moved to the
bullpen. His stuff should play extremely well there as his curveball is a
dominant offering, good enough to retire hitters of both handedness, and his
fastball is already a plus offering. His changeup remains subpar and he likely
won't feature it much at all out of the bullpen.
15. SP
Bryan Hudson
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: 2020
Grade: 55
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 65 CB, 40 CH, 50 command, 45 durability
Analysis: I very
much like the Hudson pick. He's the right type of talent to add to the system
in the third round of this June's draft: a tall, lanky prep lefty with a
dynamite curveball, enough fastball, and the need to add 20-30 pounds of leg
strength to his frame. The Cubs will give him the years needed to do so, and I
for one will very much enjoy the journey. I said on draft night that he reminds
me of Sean Marshall, delivery and all. That's a fine piece for the system.
16. 2B/LF
Ian Happ
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
hit, 50 power, 55 discipline, 40 glove, 50 arm, 50 run, 60
durability
Analysis: As I noted
in my draft recap, Happ was decidedly on my "Do Not Draft" list at #9
for one simple reason: he's defensively homeless. Happ doesn't look like he'll
have the chops to handle an infield job to me, something that torpedoes his
value. There's no denying that his bat was extremely impressive at Cincinnati,
and I really like his swing from the left side. I don't think he'll run too
terribly well, but he should move just fine. His offensive game would play
really well at second base...but if his glove pushes him to an outfield corner,
he'll have a helluva time being even an average regular at his peak. I listed
eight names I would have preferred from the Cubs at #9, but Happ is the guy, so
I'll slot him here.
17. 1B
Dan Vogelbach
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 60
hit, 60 power, 70 discipline, 30 glove, 40 arm, 20
run, 60 durability
Analysis: Somewhat
remarkably, Vogelbach has kept himself on the field every day throughout his
career, despite arriving with a body that carried a ton of excess fat.
Vogelbach has played four full seasons now and the data only somewhat matches
the scouting report. Vogelbach has hit for a much better average than might
have been expected as his all-fields approach has worked wondrously well.
However, his game power just hasn't materialized, almost surely in some part
because minor league pitchers refuse to throw him strikes. Nevertheless,
Vogelbach will be a negative defensively and on the basepaths regardless of how
well the bat develops, so he really needs his power to show up to have anything
other than a role 50 future. He's certainly not bad; it's just that he's not a
needle-mover when considering the full package.
18. 3B
Christian Villanueva
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 45
hit, 45 power, 50 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 40 run, 60
durability
Analysis: Kudos to Villanueva for working his way back onto the
prospect map. A disastrous 2014 season at the plate had Villanueva fading into
obscurity, but a nice recovery both in terms of his on-base ability and
particularly with some rediscovered game power in 2015 has him looking like a
second-division third baseman thanks to his plus glove and solid arm.
Villanueva will never be a star, but he has the defensive chops to be a
glove-first regular for a short time and a solid bench option in the longer
term, particularly as his game power proves increasingly usable.
19. RP
Armando Rivero
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 55
Risk: 3
Tools: 70
FB, 40 CB, 40 CH, 45 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Rivero
appeared ready to jump into a late-inning role in Chicago this year, but a
terrible start to the season has severely lowered his ceiling. Rivero simply
cannot stop walking opposing hitters and he has found strikeouts much tougher
to come by. That combination has proved unsurprisingly devastating. Although
Rivero has rebounded somewhat from a truly dreadful start, he is still
struggling mightily with walks, so he'll likely need more seasoning than
expected in order to find the same.
20.
C Victor Caratini
Current Level: High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 45 power, 60 discipline, 50 glove, 55 arm, 30 run, 70
durability
Analysis: Bat flips
aside, Caratini still has plenty of Major League caliber tools and as he continues
to hold his own against tougher competition, he maintains his status as an
interesting prospect. Caratini's game power has continually lagged behind his
raw power, yet his game power has even tailed off further as a Cub as the
switch-hitter has just one home run during his tenure with the organization.
Fortunately, Caratini has continually cut his strikeout rate and his walk rate
has taken a big jump this year. He remains raw, but the reports on his
defensive work are strong enough to keep this converted infielder on the
catching depth chart with the possibility of a breakout remaining reasonable in
the future.
21. SP
Paul Blackburn
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50 FB, 50 CB, 55 CH, 60
command, 60 durability
Analysis: Blackburn's stuff still hasn't taken the leap that the Cubs hoped for when they drafted him, but his pitchability has consistently helped him produce strong results. He has improved his command at each level while continually limiting the long ball. Progress has been methodical, but there may yet be a back-end starting pitcher in here.
22. SP
Tyler Skulina
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: August
2016
Grade: 55
Risk: 5(!)
Tools: 60
FB, 60 SL, 45 CH, 40 CB, 45 command, 70 durability
Analysis: Skulina is
massive, and I've often assumed that his frame would cause command problems
that would push him to the bullpen. Instead, Skulina has somehow maintained a
relatively consistent walk rate as he has climbed through the minors. His big
fastball-slider combination stands a good chance to get him to the Majors even
if his command falters, albeit in a relief role, but I'm back to thinking that
there's a real chance his big stuff gets enough of a command boost to be a
viable starting pitching candidate. If the command doesn't improve, he's a role
45 reliever. Not an unreasonable floor.
23. OF
Mark Zagunis
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
hit, 40 power, 70 discipline, 50 glove, 45 arm, 55 run, 70
durability
Analysis: Zagunis
has shifted completely away from his college role as a part-time
catcher/part-time outfielder in favor of a full-time outfield role. While that
certainly chops down his value in a big way, he continues to display elite
on-base skills, a bit of pop, and solid speed. Zagunis will never be a star,
but a plus athlete with elite on-base ability will always have a job, likely as
a fourth outfielder or perhaps even in a platoon role, especially if the power
continues to grow into game form.
24. RP
Corey Black
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 50
Risk: 1
Tools: 60
FB, 45 SL, 55 CH, 45 command, 55 durability
Analysis: I've had
Black listed as a reliever for the past few years and the Cubs finally made the
switch official recently. It only makes sense as Black's undersized frame
simply wouldn't hold up over the course of minor league starts, let alone for
full Major League seasons in the rotation. But that's not a knock on Black: in
his new role, he should flourish, especially given that he has curbed his
previously disastrously climbing walk rate. He's got a chance to pitch in the
7th or 8th inning later this year.
25. CF
Jacob Hannemann
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
hit, 50 power, 60 discipline, 65 glove, 50 arm, 65 run, 70 durability
Analysis: I continue
to occupy my spot as the high man on Hannemann, and that's just fine with
me. He runs extremely well, if a bit aggressively at times. He's a great
athlete as he has maintained plenty of his football physique in a good way. And
his plate approach continues to look better than I would have expected given
his missed development time in college. His results are still terrible: if the
risk scale went from 1-100 instead of 1-5, Hannemann would be at 95+. There's
oodles of projection to do here to see a valuable player, but I still see
plenty of it.
26. 3B
Jeimer Canderlario
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 50 power, 50 discipline, 45 glove, 60 arm, 35 run, 45 durability
Analysis: After a
complete collapse at Daytona in 2014 and a needed return to the Midwest League,
Candelario has enjoyed a surprising resurgence this year with a well-rounded
game emerging that features average defense and encouraging offense. He's
officially back on the map, even if he'll have a tough time reaching his 2013
high given that the body - while vastly improved - still needs more work.
27. SP
Justin Steele
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 45 CB, 35 CH, 40 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Of the
three mid-round bonus babies drafted in 2014, Steele is absolutely the least
exciting to me. I just don't see the ceiling. He seems like a relatively
polished swingman. Perhaps he'll move a bit more quickly than Cease or Sands,
but it's tough for me to see Steele ever growing into a solid rotation member.
It'll help to get a look at him in short-season ball.
28. 2B
Frandy Delarosa
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 50 power, 45 discipline, 50 glove, 50 arm, 55 run, 50 durability
Analysis: Delarosa
struggled through arguably the worst professional debut I've ever seen in 2013,
managing just 3 hits in 39 at bats with a stunning 20 strikeouts in the
Dominican Summer League. He turned things around in a big way as an 18-year-old
back in the DSL last summer and made his way stateside this spring where he
played well in Extended Spring Training. His calling cards are diverse with
plus athleticism giving him useful speed, a strong defensive profile up the
middle, and plenty to believe in with his bat...at least from the left side. I
won't be surprised if the Cubs scrap his switch hitting, forcing him to hit
lefty full time. His right-handed swing is unimpressive. Still, there's plenty
of talent here in the former $700,000 signee. He also happens to physically
look an awful lot like Arismendy Alcantara, for whatever that's worth.
29. SP
Daury Torrez
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 50 SL, 40 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Torrez has
continued to minimize walks in 2015, but Carolina League hitters have posed a
real challenge to him as their collective batting average against him is nearly
100 points higher than was the average of Midwest League hitters. It's not that
Torrez has gotten worse: there's just an appreciation now of how important it
is for him to locate his sinking fastball. I still see enough here for a fringe
starter, but Torrez will need to make a jump to get there.
30. RP
Juan Paniagua
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 50 CB, 50 command, 50 durability
Analysis: I worried
that Paniagua could slip into irrelevance without an impressive showing to
start 2015, but impress he has. Paniagua has used his huge fastball to throw
enough strikes to overwhelm an overmatched league. There are still things to
clean up, but two usable pitches can make a useful middle reliever.
31. C
Willson Contreras
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 50 power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 55 arm, 45 run, 60 durability
Analysis: Despite
receiving a Cub-high $850,000 signing bonus in 2009, Contreras has largely
stayed under the radar during his climb up the system. A BABIP-fueled
first-half breakout this year has eroded that anonymity. But looking past the
BABIP jump, Contreras has maintained a solid walk rate while chopping his
strikeouts and adding power. That's the ideal recipe. A converted third
baseman, Contreras is plenty athletic. He has a chance to benefit from Kyle
Schwarber's promotion in a major way as a full-time gig in the second half
should give him the opportunity to confirm that his improvements are
legitimate.
32. SP
Rob Zastryzny
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April
2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 45 CB, 55 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Zastryzny
is tumbling down this list as he has been hit too hard at each level and a foot
injury will cost him at least two months of the 2015 season. Without tons of
stuff, Zastryzny needs tremendous command, yet without pitching regularly, his
arsenal can't get the needed boost to play up. Here's hoping he recovers in a
big way in the second half.
33. RP
Dave Berg
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
FB, 40 SL, 70 command, 80 durability
Analysis: It seems a
bit absurd, but I've come to appreciate Berg a bit more over the past couple of
weeks. While his fastball wouldn't overwhelm coming in at 83 from a traditional
delivery, it's actually impressive velocity from a submariner. I still don't
like his slider at all, but he doesn't walk anybody and can throw every day.
It'll be good for Berg to get into games as he could climb very quickly.
There's a chance for something here.
34. SP
Jonathan Martinez
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 50 SL, 60 CH, 60 command, 40 durability
Analysis: I've got a
real thing for three kinds of pitchers: (i) guys with huge fastballs, (ii) guys
with killer changeups, and (iii) guys who don't walk anybody. Martinez is
decidedly not the first guy, but he fulfills the latter two criteria
beautifully. It's tough to get a great read on him because the stuff is solid
but not special and he's not striking out anybody at the High-A level. Still,
as a return for Darwin Barney, Martinez is an absolute coup.
35. CF
Albert Almora
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 5(!)
Tools: 60
hit, 55 power, 20 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 55 run, 40 durability
Analysis: It's
basically unthinkable that Almora could be so far down this list given his
toolbox, but I put him here without questioning it. I've seen Almora put a
number of really impressive swings on balls from professional pitchers,
including Major League arms. There's no questioning his swing, his defense, or
his athleticism. It's all there. But an inability to lay off pitches can sabotage
the entire package, and it's getting to the point where it's tough to see any
other outcome with Almora. He still swings at every pitch he can touch with his
bat, resulting in piles and piles of weak groundouts. Almora rather
consistently looks like Bad Castro, the 2015 version of Starlin Castro who
chases every pitch off the plate away. If Almora couldn't improve this facet of
his game while watching the approaches of Kyle Schwarber and Dan Vogelbach, I
don't have a lot of hope for him. I'm sure that the industry values Almora
significantly more highly than I do and he's a Role 60 player if the discipline
even reaches a 40 grade. But that's years of improvement away from where he is
right now.
36. SP
Ivan Pineyro
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2016
Grade: 45
Risk: 3
Tools: 50
FB, 40 CB, 60 CH, 50 command, 40 durability
Analysis: After
nearly falling off the prospect map entirely as a result of an injury-plagued,
ineffective 2014, Pineryo has reestablished himself with authority, cutting his
walks, kicking up his strikeouts, and working deeper into games without giving
up many homers. I still think that his breaking pitch is of the get-me-over
variety, but there's enough here that he should find himself on the 40-man
roster this winter with a spot on the Iowa-to-Chicago shuttle permanently
reserved for him.
37. RP
Starling Peralta
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 50 SL, 45 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Peralta is
a big guy with a big, mid-90s fastball. Unfortunately, the command is middling
and his slider hasn't yet taken the step forward that some predicted.
Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks saw enough to take a shot on him in the Rule 5
Draft a couple of years ago, and I think there's enough here for a 7th/8th
inning guy, although Peralta does need to take a couple of steps to get there
in his mid-20s.
38. RP
James Norwood
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 45 CB, 35 SL, 45 CH, 45 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Norwood
has already lost over a month to injury this year, though the type and extent
of such injury is not immediately clear. Regardless, I liked his stuff a lot at
draft time last year and I'm still plenty bullish on Norwood. But he has had
command issues, so he needs to pitch.
39. CF
Kevonte Mitchell
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 60 power, 45 discipline, 50 glove, 60 arm, 60 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Drafted as
a third baseman, Mitchell is a great athlete who runs well. Unfortunately, he's
a basketball player playing baseball, so he's extremely raw. Fortunately,
the athleticism is so good that he's looked pretty good during the transition.
The body is there to be a superstar, but there's probably a 1-in-1,000 chance
of that actually happening. Still, if he can continue converting bits of his
athleticism into useful baseball skills, he'll be a great get. Pitch
recognition will be the big concern here.
40. RF
Jeffrey Baez
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 55 power, 45 discipline, 55 glove, 55 arm, 50 run, 70
durability
Analysis: The other
Baez still has plenty of skills and looks the part, but the wheels have come
off thus far in 2015. Baez is striking out far less, but the has completely
stopped hitting for any power in addition to poor on-base ability thus far.
It's a bad time for a lost year.
41. CF
Darryl "DJ" Wilson
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: April 2020
Grade: 40
Risk: 5
Tools: 50
hit, 30 power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 45 arm, 60 run, 45 durability
Analysis: As I noted
in my draft recap post, Wilson will always be "Not Alonzo Jones" to
me. His swing is smooth enough and he appears to be a good, if undersized,
athlete. While he runs well, I'm not sure there's enough speed to be a real
force on the basepaths. Overall, Wilson is a rather ho-hum prospect to me and
he's extremely far from relevance.
42. SP
Ryan Kellogg
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 40
FB, 40 SL, 40 CB, 55 CH, 60 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Had
Kellogg been eligible for the draft after his freshman season at Arizona State,
he may very well have found himself drafted in the first two rounds. Instead,
he was a slot bonus draftee in the fifth. There's some possibility that a
mechanical adjustment enables his stuff to play up, but it's a longshot.
43. 2B
Chesny Young
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
hit, 20 power, 65 discipline, 50 glove, 40 arm, 55 run, 50 durability
Analysis: It's hard
not to notice Young. After batting .374 in college, Young carries a composite
professional batting average of .336 thus far. On top of his batting average,
he has a 9.2% BB% and just a 12.8% K%. Defensively there's not much, but he
moves well enough to handle second base...probably. But about that bat: there's
no power in it at all. He has yet to homer professionally and he hit just 11
bombs in three years at Mercer. If he keeps hitting in the mid-.300s, he'll
find himself a job. He's a name to watch for that reason alone.
44. RP PJ
Francescon
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 2
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 50 command, 65
durability
Analysis: I say the
same thing every time I do one of these updates: there's absolutely nothing
special about Francescon's stuff. There's no particular reason to think that
he's going to make it any higher than he already has. Except, thing is, I love
watching him pitch. His fastball is in the low-90s with good tail and his
slider works just fine. He's been getting people out in a swingman capacity for
years, despite not having tremendous stuff or a third pitch. I'll keep rooting
for him.
45. RP
Donn Roach
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 1
Tools: 55 FB, 45 SL, 55 command, 60
durability
Analysis: Roach is
never going to strike anybody out. Not ever. But if he avoids walking people
like he has so far in 2015, he's plenty useful thanks to extreme
groundball tendencies. Roach just throws his sinker all the time and gets
opposing hitters to pound it into the zone. He doesn't have a secondary pitch
to make him anything more than a long man, but there's value in a cheap long
man nonetheless.
46. CF
Charcer Burks
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 40
Risk: 5
Tools: 45 hit, 30 power, 50 discipline, 55 glove, 40 arm, 65
run, 45 durability
Analysis: The rare ninth-round pick to sign for an overslot bonus,
Burks has proven that he can run in a useful way on a baseball diamond. His
hitting has a long way to go and he absolutely must stay in center given his
arm, but Burks has the ability to grow into something more over the coming
years. For now, simply holding his own in full-season ball is enough.
47. C Rafael
Lopez
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 1
Tools: 45 hit, 30 power, 55 discipline, 50 glove, 50 arm, 30
run, 50 durability
Analysis: I debated whether or not Lopez should even go on this
list: he reached the Majors last year, and the disappearance of his power
really limits his ceiling. But there's something to having an MLB-ready backup
catcher at Triple-A, so he gets a mention. There was a time where I could have
squinted and seen Lopez as a platoon-type. No longer, as his power has
completely vanished.
48. RP
Matt Brazis
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: June 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 60 FB, 50 SL, 45 CB, 60
command, 20 durability
Analysis: Given that the Mariners designated Justin Ruggiano for
assignment earlier this month, it's tough to see Brazis as anything other than
gravy. Brazis also comes with plenty of stuff as two usable breaking pitches
complement a big fastball with good command. But, as always, there's a catch:
Brazis simply cannot stay healthy as he missed a big chunk of college with
injuries and he's missed almost all of this year as well. Plenty of arm, but
he's not healthy enough to use it.
49. RP
Ryan McNeil
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 40 CH, 40
command, 30 durability
Analysis: McNeil injured his elbow in Extended Spring Training in
2013, underwent Tommy John surgery, missed the entire season, and returned for
only a dozen or so inning last year in the Northwest League. Needless to say,
the former prep third-round-pick desperately needs to pitch. His risk is
through the roof - much like Brazis's - but McNeil has the benefit of time on
his side as he's still just 21. He does need to pick up the pace as his results
have underwhelmed.
50. SP
Jeremy Null
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2018
Grade: 45
Risk: 5
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 45 CH, 60
command, 30 durability
Analysis: Null has pitched his way into mention on this list by
posting an absurd walk rate of 0.57 BB/9. That's just crazy. Baseball America
had listed Null as the 441st best prospect for the 2014 draft, so it's not as
though he came completely out of nowhere. That said, he'll need to prove that his
command and body can both hold up despite his massive frame.
A trio of
players just missed this list and get their own paragraph. SS Carlos Penalver
has never hit, but, by all accounts, he has the chops to handle shortstop well.
That kind of glove always hangs around. OF Bijan Rademacher has
consistently produced good numbers until hitting a wall at Double-A
this year. If he adjusts, he could make himself relevant in a reserve
outfielder capacity. And SP Kyle Twomey, a former third round pick, hasn't
officially signed as a draftee and he may elect to return to USC for his senior
year. However, if he doesn't, there's still plenty of stuff for the former
top-100 player in the class of 2012 to make some noise with a much needed
developmental step or two. SP Ryan Williams may have earned a mention had I not
seen him in person, but he has absolutely no stuff with a slider that would be
positively obliterated in the Majors.
The final
prospects to get their own mention are a quintet of draftees who appear unlikely
to sign. 3B John Cresto has a projectable body with a good-looking bat, but
he'll need five years to make it; obviously that's enough time for plenty to go
wrong. SP John Kilichowski has enough stuff, but he also can return to
Vanderbilt for his junior season, so he's loaded with leverage. SP Jared
Padgett is a big lefty with a decent arsenal likely headed for Mississippi
State. SP Fitz Stadler is a Chicago-area kid who might be bought out of a
college commitment who comes with a huge frame. And my personal favorite, 36th
rounder CF Alonzo Jones, is an absolute burner with true 80-grade power and a
good enough swing from the left side for 50+ hit and 40+ power if it works out.
He's stronger than Billy Hamilton, though obviously he'd need to develop a lot in
order for his game speed to be as useful. Any of these five would make this list.
There we
have it. The longest snapshot in history.
In closing, just to make sure everyone is drooling, here's a Top Ten Under 25 list:
1. SS Addison Russell
2. 1B Anthony Rizzo
3. 3B Kris Bryant
4. SS Javier Baez
5. SP Kyle Hendricks
6. C/OF Kyle Schwarber
7. RF Jorge Soler
8. SP Duane Underwood
9. 2B/CF Arismendy Alcantara
10. RF Eloy Jimenez
3. 3B Kris Bryant
4. SS Javier Baez
5. SP Kyle Hendricks
6. C/OF Kyle Schwarber
7. RF Jorge Soler
8. SP Duane Underwood
9. 2B/CF Arismendy Alcantara
10. RF Eloy Jimenez
