2018 NFL Predictions

Last year, my picks were...not good. So let's try it again!

NFC West
San Francisco (10-6) - Loaded defensive front + Jimmy G. That's plenty.
Los Angeles Rams (10-6) - Can they repeat their 2017 success? Yup. D is still insanely talented.
Seattle (6-10) - The defensive attrition over the years finally catches up to them.
Arizona (3-13) - They've bled plenty of talent and aged, then they intentionally signed Sam Bradford.

NFC South
Carolina (11-5) - I remain a big believer in Cam and see a strong defense under Ron Rivera.
Atlanta (9-7) - They're really talented, but that Super Bowl collapse will break them.
New Orleans (8-8) - Brees and a solid D give them a high floor. I don't see the ceiling.
Tampa Bay (5-11) - Things are getting ugly in Tampa. They may have to rebuild again.

NFC East
Philadelphia (13-3) - Alshon. All Alshon. And lots of other great players, too.
New York Giants (8-8) - Saquon is amazing. The rest of the roster is ho-hum.
Dallas (6-10) - There's talent on this roster, but the receivers stink and the O-Line is already hurt.
Washington (4-12) - They definitely got worse and possibly a whole lot worse.

NFC North
Green Bay (13-3) - They're due for a monster year and Rodgers is healthy.
Minnesota (10-6) - The Vikings are crazy talented. They'll survive the expectations.
Chicago (6-10) - The Bears are mostly talented, but the abject lack of pass rush dooms them.
Detroit (6-10) - This roster just doesn't do anything for me, save for Matt Stafford.

AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) - The defensive is even better now. Plenty of skill power on offense.
Denver (8-8) - The Von Miller-Bradley Chubb combo gives them a very high floor.
Oakland (7-9) - Plenty of talent to win big. I'm not a Gruden believer in 2018 though.
Kansas City (6-10) - I don't buy Patrick Mahomes.

AFC South
Tennessee (10-6) - They're ready for a real leap, one I thought they'd take last year.
Jacksonville (10-6) - There's sooo much defensive talent. But Bortles-Moncrief? WTF?
Houston (9-7) - Watt+Clowney+Watson. They're gonna be seriously fun.
Indianapolis (4-12) - Even if Luck is healthy, they're just not good.

AFC East
New England (13-3) - The Pats might not be as great as usual, but the East stinks.
Miami (7-9) - This is probably their peak for this iteration of the team.
New York Jets (6-10) - They'll be better but also breaking in a rookie QB.
Buffalo (5-11) - They had a QB last year, then they punted him. Huh?

AFC North
Pittsburgh (11-5) - Despite a tough schedule, this is a very talented team.
Cleveland (9-7) - Seriously. Their defensive is stellar and now they're loaded with QB talent.
Baltimore (8-8) - Still not enough skill talent, but there's enough here for a solid year.
Cincinnati (4-12) - Finally, it's Marvin's last year.

NFC Playoff Tree
#5 Minnesota over #4 San Francisco
#6 Los Angeles Rams over #3 Carolina

#1 Green Bay over #6 Los Angeles Rams
#2 Philadelphia over #5 Minnesota

#1 Green Bay over #2 Philadelphia

AFC Playoff Tree
#4 Tennessee over #5 Jacksonville
#3 Pittsburgh over #6 Cleveland

#1 New England over #4 Tennessee
#3 Pittsburgh over #2 Los Angeles Chargers

#1 New England over #3 Pittsburgh

Super Bowl
#1 New England over #1 Green Bay

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Some bonus notes on the Bears in lieu of a full, separate piece:

• I'm genuinely excited for this year's team. That was tougher to come by during the John Fox era.
• The offensive skill talent is real and exciting. I'm most excited to see Allen Robinson in a Bears uniform after watching him at OLSM, Penn State, and with the Jaguars.
• The offensive line can be above-average is everyone stays healthy and James Daniels impresses from Day One. Unfortunately, the tackles are shaky and the depth is non-existent. This will likely be a problem this year.
• I love the top four on the defensive line with starting nose Eddie Goldman and three primary ends Akiem Hicks, Jonathan Bullard, and Roy Robertson-Harris. I like the Bilal Nichols pick. But if Hicks goes down, the Bears are screwed, in large part because...
• The outside linebackers are going to be bad and might be horrendous. An injury-prone, wildly undersized Leonard Floyd. An injury-prone, underwhelming Aaron Lynch. Journeyman Sam Acho. Perhaps injury-prone sixth-rounder Kylie Fitts or subpar roster fodder players Isaiah Irving or Kasim Edebali fills out the roster. It doesn't really matter. The Broncos rode the fearsome combination of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware to the Super Bowl. They wisely added Bradley Chubb in the draft this year. They appreciate that the 3-4 only works with dominant OLB production. The Bears are going to have terrible OLB production. Comfortable quarterbacks tend to succeed a whole lot.
• I cannot believe that Marcus Cooper is on the NFL. It's idiotic that he's back on the Bears.
• The safety group, led by Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson with Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson backing them up, might be the best looking Bears safety position group in decades.
• The lack of valuable draft picks as a result of the Trubisky trade is particularly obvious when examining the missing depth on the offensive line, at outside linebacker, and at defensive end.
• The Bears desperately need a huge breakout from a recent late draftee or undrafted youngster like Jordan Morgan, Fitts, or Kevin Toliver.

Picking the 2018 Penn State Football Season (and the rest of the Big Ten, too)

Boy, it sure has been an enjoyable couple of years following Nittany football. It's no secret that while I respected JFF's abilities as a recruiter, I've long been unimpressed with his gameday coaching abilities.

That position is largely untenable at this point.

Following a couple of shaky 7-6 seasons to open his career in State College, Franklin's teams have compiled back-to-back 11-win seasons, going 22-5 over that time. Unfortunately for me, I'm 0-2 during that span. Oh well.

In reality, the program's turnaround has been even more stark. September 2016 was a disaster with a close loss at Pitt and the blowout at the Big House. JFF looked dead in the water. Since then, the team is 22-3 with a Big Ten Title, a Fiesta Bowl win, and a slew of memorable wins (although it's worth mentioning that all three losses have been excruciating: 52-49 @ USC, 39-38 @ Ohio State, and 27-24 @ Michigan State).

So where will 2018 fit into this narrative?

First, it's essential to look at the 2017 roster and see which contributors have moved on. Surprisingly, despite the amount of 2017 Nittany talent that will don NFL threads this fall (more on that in a moment), the most painful loss will likely be that of MLB Jason Cabinda. Cabinda enjoyed a splendid career running the Nittany defense. Replacing him will be...somebody. The leading contenders three weeks from the opener are walk-on senior Jan Johnson, recently-reinstated senior outside linebacker Manny Bowen, and redshirt freshmen Jesse Luketa and Ellis Brooks. Star recruit Micah Parsons even got some run in the inside this spring before bumping to outside linebacker, a more natural fit unless he ultimately transitions backs to the defensive line. Gulp. This will be a major storyline for the team this season.

Second, about that NFL talent. It's remarkable really. The draftees:

• RB Saquon Barkley (#2)
• TE Mike Gesicki (#42)
• S   Troy Apke (#109)
• WR DaeSean Hamilton (#113)
• S   Marcus Allen (#148)
• CB Christian Campbell (#182)

That's a fantastic amount of talent. Numerous other graduates signed deals as undrafted rookies as well.

It may seem bizarre to be more concerned about replacing Cabinda than Barkley, Gesicki, or basically the entire secondary. But hear me out as I go through the roster by position group.

Quarterback

This group is nearly perfect. Trace McSorley will show up on a bunch of preseason All-American lists. Tommy Stevens, who doubles as the backup quarterback and the "Lion" for the offense, is ready for a starting gig. The coaching staff had to fend off a number of transfer possibilities for Stevens in the offseason. That's a good thing. The #3 quarterback, Sean Clifford, enters his redshirt freshman season after having arrived as the #8 pro-style quarterback in his recruiting class.

On paper, when healthy, and before the season starts (plus whatever other caveats you want to apply), this group looks perfect.

Running Back

Look, there's no replacing Saquon. He's a generational talent, a superb leader, and a remarkably versatile weapon.

When having to replace a player of Barkley's caliber, basically the perfect solution would be to have (i) the #1 running back in his class with two years of collegiate experience under his belt (Miles Sanders), and (ii) the #1 running back in the current recruiting cycle (Ricky Slade). Perfect. This group is dripping with talent even without Barkley.

Tight End

Gesicki is an awfully rare talent with his 6-foot-6 frame and elite leaping ability. The offense will truly miss his skillset.

However, the program has a trio of experienced, block-first options to fill the void in redshirt sophomore Danny Dalton and redshirt juniors Nick Bowers and Jonathan Holland. To make matters more interesting, Nittany brought in two top-ten tight ends among the 2018 recruiting class in Zack Kuntz and Pat Freiermuth to push the veterans. There are a lot of qualified bodies, even if the role of the tight end will look a lot different this year.

Wide Receiver

This group is really interesting. Gone are a trio of key contributors: all-time reception king and slot fade ace DaeSean Hamilton, rangy Saeed Blacknall, and special teams star Irv Charles. In reality, Hamilton will be deeply missed on offense. However, Blacknall got in his own way with off-the-field issues after his breakout performance in the Big Ten Championship Game at the end of his junior season and Charles never established himself on the offensive side of the ball.

The top-two receivers coming back -- JuWan Johnson and DeAndre Thompkins -- are quite the formidable 1-2 punch. Johnson will have the chance to play his way into a lofty draft status. Sliding into the space vacated by Hamilton and Blacknall will be McSorley's high school teammate, Brandon Polk, and a bevy of freshmen, both redshirt and true. In the redshirt group, the diminutive KJ Hamler has made a lot of noise, Mac Hippenhammer had a huge spring game, and Cam Sullivan-Brown figures to earn some snaps. But the true freshman come much more highly regarded: Jahann Dotson and Daniel George will both likely redshirt themselves while #1 receiver and #8 overall recruit Justin Shorter will almost certainly force his way into meaningful playing time. With Shorter at 6-foot-4, 226 pounds and Johnson at 6-foot-4, 231 pounds, the receiving corps has the chance to create matchup nightmares for opposing defensive backfields. Even without Hamilton, there's a good chance that Nittany receivers will be stronger in 2018.

Offensive Tackle

This is the group that has coaches and engaged fans buzzing. The offensive line depth was depleted by the scholarship sanctions earlier this decade, but the line finally has the ideal mix of experienced starters and young prospects for the first time in JFF's tenure. LT Ryan Bates is a stud -- his absence down the stretch at the Horseshoe proved to be the offense's undoing. At RT, the battle between reshirt senior Chasz Wright and redshirt sophomore Will Fries -- both of whom come with extensive starting experience -- can only be seen as a positive. 

Interior Offensive Line

The interior features a great mix of four-star talent: experienced junior returning starters Connor McGovern and Steven Gonzalez and highly regarded sophomore Michal Menet, the only new starter in the group.

The line play in 2017 was far and away the best yet during Franklin's run as coach, but there's every reason to expect even better production in 2018.

Defensive End

The talent here is absurd. The surefire starters in the group entering last season, Torrence Brown and Ryan Buchholz, both missed time with injuries last year. Brown may not return to the team given the extent of his knee injury. Like Bates on the offensive line, Buchholz's injury at Ohio State had a devastating impact on the defensive line.

The result of these injuries, however, is that redshirt junior Shareef Miller and a quartet of highly-regarded sophomores got tons of snaps in 2017. Daniel Joseph was the least noteworthy but comes with a pedigree. Shane Simmons flashed some skill. Shaka Toney proved to be an undersized pass-rushing specialist. That kind of player always gets a chance to get on the field. But it is Yetur Gross-Matos that has Nittany fans most excited. He has the size and quickness to be an every-down impact player...assuming he can get enough reps in this loaded rotation.

Defensive Tackle

This group is peculiar, as it has been for most of the past few years. There is no impact body to be found. Juniors Kevin Givens and Robert Windsor will get the first crack at primary jobs -- I've been a huge fan of Givens during his time on campus. Sophomores Ellison Jordan and Antonio Shelton will serve in reserve roles.

But when I look for a spot where youngsters will likely be thrust into key roles, this is the most likely location (rivaled by tight end). Fred Hansard has the classic 300+ pound run-stuffer body that isn't found elsewhere in the group. The biggest candidate to surprise, however, is Damion Barber. Barber arrived on campus last fall as a 245-pound defensive end. But given the number of plus young talent on the outside, Barber put on nearly 35 pounds in an effort to get on the field in the interior. Most likely, Barber will serve on the interior in obvious passing situations, providing the line with an extra rusher. It'll likely be tough for any of the three true freshman to get onto the field, but if somebody makes it, expect to see PJ Mustipher score some time.

Inside Linebacker

Well now, we get to the scary spot. As mentioned above, Cabinda is gone with no clear replacement. It'll be Luketa, Brooks, Johnson, Bowen, or senior Jake Cooper carrying most of the load. That's not a good thing. My bets are on Luketa or Bowen. Still, yikes.

Outside Linebacker

As it turns out, this group is likely in fine shape and, more importantly, in position to help ease the stress in the interior. Bowen has had an excellent Penn State career when on the field, Koa Farmer has grown into a plus starter as a senior, and junior Cam Brown has showed well when given a chance to play. Fellow junior Jarvis Miller will get some time, too. Most notably here, superstar true freshman Parsons will get on the field. If all goes well, he'll get on the field a lot.

I don't want to have too specific of a dream scenario here, but let's just say that Parsons and Farmer flanking Bowen would look awfully nice.

Cornerback

It's nearly impossible to graduate a draftee (Campbell) and an iconic, All-Big Ten three-year starter (Grant Haley) while still returning two All-Big Ten performers. But that's just what Penn State gets to do with senior Amani Oruwariye projected to start across from stud John Reid as he returns after missing all of 2017 with a knee injury. Reid remains Franklin's highest-rated corner recruit and has played in every game since he arrived on campus as a true freshman, starting every game as a sophomore. There's plenty of starting-level talent here.

Thanks to Reid's injury, Tariq Castro-Fields got some nice reps in 2017, as did Zech McPhearson. Castro-Fields was particularly impressive. I fully expect that he'll play his way into a full-time role in 2018, pushing Oruwariye back into his comfortable spot in the slot. Coming off of their redshirt seasons, DJ Brown and Donovan Johnson will really have to shine in practice to get themselves onto the field on Saturdays. That's a good problem to have.

Safety

Obviously Allen and Apke will both be dearly missed. I was a particularly huge Allen fan for years. That said, Nittany appears to have largely figured out the starting jobs here with senior captain Nick Scott (who wisely asked to be moved to safety from running back after practicing with Barkley as a freshman) joining converted cornerback Garrett Taylor at the back of the defense. There's always risk when replacing safeties, so this will be a tandem to watch. Redshirt freshman Jonathan Sutherland and true sophomore Lamont Wade will both help with the depth here. Wade's experience as a corner should help him get on the field, especially in sub packages.

Specialists

Junior punter Blake Gillikin has been an ace since arriving on campus. The kicking job remains an open competition as of mid-August, which rightly causes some concern, though freshman Jake Pinegar comes highly regarded. Long snapper Kyle Vasey got a scholarship, which is nifty. Hopefully nobody ever notices him.

The coverage units will really miss Charles.

The Schedule

When I looked at the team last December, this was a real area of focus. Since then, I picked every Big Ten game. Here is my look at the Penn State schedule followed by my pick for Big Ten standings and bowl assignments:

@ Penn State 31, Appalachian State 20

Penn State 31, @ Pittsburgh 26

@ Penn State 45, Kent State 16

Penn State 33, @ Illinois 16

Ohio State 30, @ Penn State 17

BYE

@ Penn State 34, Michigan State 28

Penn State 33, @ Indiana 20

Penn State 24, @ Iowa 20

@ Michigan 31, Penn State 24

@ Penn State 34, Wisconsin 27

Penn State 44, @ Rutgers 13

@ Penn State 28, Maryland 18

Big Ten West

Iowa -- 9-3 (7-2)

Wisconsin -- 9-3 (6-3)

Nebraska -- 7-5 (4-5)

Northwestern -- 5-7 (4-5)

Minnesota -- 6-6 (3-6)

Purdue -- 4-8 (2-7)

Illinois -- 2-10 (0-9)

• Like everyone, I think that Wisconsin is better than Iowa and I don't trust Ferentz to put together back-to-back winners at this stage in his career. But this is how the results shook out when I picked the games, so here we are.
• I believe in Frost.
• Northwestern is really tough to peg. If Thorson is back and at 95%, they should be pretty good. Without him, I'd be really scared.
• There's just no hope at Illinois.

Big Ten East

Ohio State -- 12-0 (9-0)

Penn State -- 10-2 (7-2)

Michigan -- 9-3 (7-2)

Michigan State -- 8-4 (5-4)

Maryland -- 6-6 (4-5)

Rutgers -- 5-7 (3-6)

Indiana -- 4-8 (2-7)

• The East is way better than the West.
• I don't ever know how to pick against Ohio State. They're just so ludicrously talented, even when breaking in a new quarterback and with significant off-field problems.
• Without picking individual games or looking at schedules, instead based solely on talent and coaching, I'd peg Ohio State for 11 or 12 wins, Michigan for 10 or 11, Michigan State for 9 or 10, and Penn State for 9 or 10. Penn State's relatively favorable schedule (only one tough back-to-back and all of Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin at home -- there's nothing like last year's Michigan/@ Ohio State/@ Michigan State gauntlet) and Michigan's brutal one (@ Ohio State, @ Notre Dame, @ Northwestern, @ Michigan State, home for Wisconsin and Penn State) impacted their projections. Michigan could be substantially better than last year yet only improve by one game thanks to their slate of opponents and game locations.
• Michigan State is just tough to gauge after their last two seasons. They return so much talent and Lewerke is awesome. Could they go 11-1? Could they go 7-5? I don't know.
• Those Rutgers and Indiana projections ended up awfully rosy.
• Things could really fall apart at Maryland depending on how things shake out for Durkin.

Bowl Assignments

Ohio State -- Cotton (CFP)

Penn State -- Peach

Michigan -- Rose

Wisconsin -- Citrus

Iowa -- Holiday

Michigan State -- Outback

Nebraska -- TaxSlayer

Maryland -- Pinstripe

Minnesota -- San Francisco

The one thing I don't like about these projections: there's no significant surprise team. Nebraska improving to 7-5 in Frost's debut season would be impressive but hardly earth-shattering. Somebody from the bottom half of the conference will likely piece together a strong season. I just don't know who and I have a hard time believing in Purdue.

So there we have it. The Penn State and Big Ten seasons for 2018. I'll look back in January to see where I missed badly and why.

Very Late 2018 Chicago Bears Draft Grades

This post was a long time coming, so let's dispense with the rosy introduction and get right into the analysis/grades. I wrote this in mid-to-late July, spilling into the time that the Bears reported for training camp (it clearly hasn't impacted my thoughts on Anthony Miller, though!). Enjoy!

Bears Draft ILB Roquan Smith #8 Overall
Grade: C+
Analysis: I like the Smith pick, hence the slightly above-average grade. I expect that he'll be a September starter for the Bears, even if he doesn't make the Opening Day starting 11, and that the Bears will unnecessarily push Danny Trevathan out the door in February following Smith's solid debut season.

If this grade seems low, recalibrate your grading scale. A "C" is average, so this is a good grade and a solid use of a premium asset, a top-10 pick.

Bears Draft G James Daniels #39 Overall
Grade: B
Analysis: While I like the Smith pick, I love the Daniels selection. Daniels represented great value early in the second round and he serves as a strong crutch in the event that Kyle Long's myriad injuries sap his ability sooner than expected.

There were other good players to be found at this juncture, but Pace did quite well to grab a plus talent even if he didn't provide the perfect roster fit.

Bears Trade 2019 Second-Round Pick and #105 Overall to New England for #51 Overall
Grade: F-
Analysis: This is what bad/stupid teams do. They fall in love with individual players, then pay a laughable premium to land them.

Now, it's not as if it is impossible to land such good value as to justify trading up. For his faults as a general manager, Phil Emery made arguably the best Bears trade of the decade when he slid up five spots in 2012 to draft Alshon Jeffery at #45 overall. The fifth-round pick that he surrendered to climb was abundantly worth it as Jeffery blossomed into a star.

But in this trade? It is, in fact, impossible. Using the Chase Stuart draft value chart, the 51st pick is worth 9.6 draft points. The 105th pick is worth 5.0 points. Even if the Bears win the Super Bowl in 2018 and score the 64th pick in the 2019 draft, they'll send over an additional 8.1 additional points of value, making the deal a 13.1-for-9.6 trade, paying a 36% premium. More realistically, the Bears will end up with something very near the 51st pick in 2019, meaning that they gave the Patriots the 105th pick for free. Just like a dumb team would.

Many folks push back on this type of analysis, discounting the value of future picks. That makes sense for Ryan Pace: Pace has a job to keep and another bad season or two likely sees him ushered out the door. It does not, however, make sense for fans of the Chicago Bears to discount the value of future picks. The 2021 season is just as valuable to me as the 2018 season. The 2021 Bears took a huge hit with this deal.

Finally, while there is some value in getting Anthony Miller an extra year of development time with Mitch Trubisky in Matt Nagy's...but there's not this much value.

Bears Draft WR Anthony Miller #51 Overall
Grade: F
Analysis: Ugh.

This pick checks every box in "what not to do on draft day" bingo:

1. Miller was a walk-on at Memphis, not a lifelong premium athlete.
2. Miller is already 23, turning 24 in October before his fifth professional game. Miller is older than Jordan Howard and only a year younger than Allen Robinson and Jonathan Bullard. Remember: Miller has yet to play in an NFL game. Miller isn't an athlete with untapped physical upside. Who he is now, physically, is who he will be.
3. Miller is 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, lacking the premium body that generally gets receivers drafted early.
4. Miller put up his gaudy numbers in a weak American Athletic Conference.
5. Miller missed his entire redshirt freshman year with a shoulder injury, then missed the NFL Combine after suffering a dreaded Jones fracture in his foot.

None of this is to say that Miller doesn't have a chance to succeed. I like Miller's body control and physicality, two key traits for most wide receivers in the NFL. Miller's 40 time (4.48) and vertical (39 inches) were both strong. However, both were recorded at Miller's Memphis Pro Day instead of at the Combine due to his Jones fracture. The Jones fracture is, simply put, a career killer for NFL wide receivers. It's not impossible to come back from the injury -- looking at you, Sammy Watkins and Kevin Durant -- but it has derailed plenty of careers and Miller is yet to play a game on his surgically repaired foot.

There's a story to be written about Miller's career in which his stellar work ethic and attitude transform the Bears' receiving corps into a devastating group of big-play ability with Miller catching back-shoulder fade after back-shoulder fade en route to completing the climb from walk-on to NFL stardom. Do we live in that universe? I don't think so. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

(It'll be awfully interesting to track the careers of Miller and troubled former Florida Gator Antonio Callaway, the player selected with the 105th pick sent out in the Miller trade.)

Bears Draft ILB Joel Iyiegbuniwe #115 Overall
Grade: D-
Analysis: Huh? This pick remains the most perplexing move that Pace made this offseason.

In drafting Smith, picking 2016 fourth-round pick Nick Kwiatkoski, and signing Trevathan to a significant free agent contract, Pace has loaded up at inside linebacker. The position group is bursting with talent, also aided by run-stuffer John Timu.

Inexplicably, in a draft where the team lacked a third-round pick and where Pace traded away next year's second-round pick, he quadrupled down at inside linebacker, bloating the depth chart while neglecting the obvious needs for talent at outside linebacker and defensive end. Drafting for need is a bad idea. A similarly bad idea? Drafting based exclusively on your grades when you're apparently in love with players at one position.

I suspect that Iyiegbuniwe will succeed as a special teamer with the Bears and that he'll get a crack at playing every-down football in his third or fourth year. Just remember that he's a luxury item for a club that figures to give Sam Acho significant snaps this year.

Bears Draft DE Bilal Nichols #145 Overall
Grade: C+
Analysis: Nichols is a solid pick. He's the type of talent that scouts love to find and the type of risk that I appreciate from Pace. There's not much sense in the Bears drafting a plug-and-play, Power 5 conference defensive end who is currently below-average and projects to end up there. The club has to jump every NFC North team and will need to hit on some risky picks to do so.

Nichols certainly qualifies. He has the body and athleticism to be a plus starter in the NFL, even if he has only a one-in-five shot of reaching that ceiling. That's a good risk at a position where the Bears figure to get excellent production from Akiem Hicks and above-average production from Jonathan Bullard in 2018. I like this choice, even if there's nothing that makes me love it.

Bears Draft OLB Kylie Fitts #181 Overall
Grade: B-
Analysis: Much like Nichols before him, Fitts fits the boom-or-bust mold quite well. Between Lisfranc, shoulder, and ankle injuries, Fitts spent more of his time at Utah nursing injuries than playing football. His three-cone drill time (6.88 seconds) came in with Harold Landry and Sam Hubbard, suggesting the Fitts has the necessary athleticism to be a productive pass rusher.

Will he stay on the field? Probably not. But if he does, the ceiling is such that Fitts could help boost a group that desperately needs it as the fourth rushing option behind Leonard Floyd, Aaron Lynch, and Acho.

Bears Draft WR Javon Wims #224 Overall
Grade: C
Analysis: At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Wims is a huge target. He's rather raw for an experience collegiate player and it's likely that he'll spend a year or two on the practice squad while he works to run the types of routes that Nagy's offense demands. But with his body, solid hands, and likely some special teams ability, Wims should be able to find some NFL reps in the next year.

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In the end, this was a below-average draft for the Bears. I like the Smith, Nichols, and Fitts picks and understand most of the others. But the Miller trade and pick is the kind of sneaky crippling move that haunts a franchise while the Iyiegbuniwe selection will have an extremely difficult time returning value to the club.

The Jose Quintana Trade: A Live Text Chain, 11 1/2 Months Later

Last summer, in the midst of my family's July camping trip, Theo Epstein went bananas and shipped out the farm for a shot at Jose Quintana's contact (and, I suppose, his arm, too). With that deal nearly a year old, it's time to look back in the best way possible: by transcribing a text chain chronicling that day's discussion!

The text chain below involved me ("Rob"), my brother, Mike ("Mike"), my best friend, Joey ("Joey"), and our mutual friend, Zack ("Zack"). Now that you know the actors and the scene (everyone else was plugged into civilization whereas I was in a remote area along the Lake Michigan coast, hence spotty reception and no Internet), here goes (with only the lightest editing to make sentences, well, into full sentences)!

Mike: We traded Eloy and Cease for Quintana? Holy crap ChiSox. This feels like an overpay. The Cubs better get on a tear now.

Zack: Uh Wut?

Joey: Effin Quintana <inserts picture of "The Dude" shaking his head no in the bowling alley>

Rob: Out camping with terrible reception: can somebody please text me the full trade?

Mike: Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Brian Flete for Jose Quintana.

Rob: At least Rose and Flete are nothing. Nevertheless: Theo has lost his damn mind. ChiSox would've taken this deal in January. Since then: Quintana much worse, Eloy and Cease much better. C'mon Theo.

Zack: I think Theo gets the benefit of the doubt, doesn't he?

Mike: I'm not sure if Cease wouldn't have bested Kopech for purposes of constructing a Chris Sale trade in the winter, but this is getting close to that level. My guess is Theo isn't done - I think we'll grab another starter and I wonder if there's truth to the Ian Happ or Kyle Schwarber to the Tigers rumors. I think Sonny Gray is worse but could've been had for less. I wonder how much more Archer would've cost. Most ppl think Eloy is one of the games top 5 hitting prospects. I can live with Cease going. While we have no other high end pitching prospects besides him, trading him is worthwhile for 3 years of control of a good MLB starter.

Rob: I honestly wonder if Theo even realizes that he just made the Jeff Samardzija trade.

Mike: Probably. Btw - perhaps he should go get Samardzija.

Rob: Except, of course, that the cost of the extra year of Quintana is apparently the cavernous gap between Cease and nothing. I'd be happy to bring Shark back, but what the hell is he gonna use for ammo? Re benefit of the doubt: Theo sure as shit knows how to sell. I'm not sure if he knows how to buy all that well. Eloy was a consensus top-10 overall prospect on every mid season list. He'll be in the Majors by this time next year. As assets, he's more valuable than Quintana, straight up. Desperate teams always pay a tax for their desperation; I get that. This seems extreme.

Mike: Shark is a rental who gives up lots of HRs. Candelario, La Stella, Zagunis, De La Cruz, Clifton, Ademan.

Rob: Shark has 3.5 years left on deal. Not a rental at all. If I could poo poo platter my way to Shark, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Ask yourself this: how much would you pay for Jake Arrieta right now if he had two club options? Jake's FIP (4.17) is a rounding error away from Quintana's (4.01). The Cubs just paid for an ace and got a guy who had been a #2 before being a #3/4 this year. They better hope that most of his struggles were the result of a general malaise for playing for a tanking team. BTW: which Chicago tam will be better in 2020? Final point: sure feels like the Cubs paid a huge talent premium to get Quintana's controlled dollars. Think about the Ricketts avoiding the luxury tax instead of assembling the most talented roster the next time you drop $11 for a beer.

Mike: Jake is still a top 40 pitcher. That guy gets a start in a playoff series. He doesn't start game 1 like Archer would.

Rob: For the Cubs, yes. For the Nats? Or Dodgers? Or even the D-Backs? Probably not.

Mike: If Hahn gets next year's draft pick right, he will have built a better prospect stable than Theo did during the Cubs rebuild. Of course, he started with more impact talent to trade away.

Rob: I'm waiting for you guys to tell me that Mike said I was going camping with spotty internet so you decided to play an elaborate prank on me. A bit more, yes. But Theo should have had an extra $50M/year to spend on talent acquisition.

Zack: Theo brought us a World Series title and ended the curse. I trust him. Everything else is pure speculation. How many "can't miss" prospects have missed? In Theo I trust.

Rob: That's true. Also true: he also built this year's 43-45 team that has a run differential of 0 in baseball's worst division. And the "waves and waves of talent?" That was a lie. There was one wave, it was awesome, but it won't have reinforcements coming. The system is probably bottom-5 overall now. For the Cubs in the Theo era? Literally none, unless you count Arismendy (who wasn't Theo's). Everyone else was a smash hit, hence the World Series win and Happ being the third best player on this year's team.

Zack: Yeah I'm not that worried. They have had 2 very long years of exceptional baseball. A hangover is to be expected. If they can get it together, great, but I'm not going to throw in the towel.

Mike: Sahadev and Greenberg are both surprisingly positive on this one.

Rob: Let's put it this way: a top-5 hitting prospect a year from the Majors is worth something like $50-70M as an asset, maybe higher now. A back-end top-100 prospect is worth something like $20M. Factor in Quintana's salary (about $34M remaining) and the Cubs surrendered about $115M for 3.5 years of Quintana. Even in a crazy expensive marketplace, that's a laughable rate.

Mike: But you're talking value, not actual dollars. Actual dollars are what the Ricketts are spending. Watch Heyward explode next year then opt out. If not, Eloy is worth less to us than others, although I'm not really higher on this right now than you are. I didn't see a scenario where they'd trade him and I'd want an Archer type guy in return for doing so.

Rob: Rick Hahn: "Cubs offer was far and away the best offer we received." That's great if you're the Sox. Not so great if you're the Cubs. Talent resources are limited and this marks the second straight summer that Theo has used the far more precious resource - talent - to acquire players instead of using Ricketts cash. I resent the hell out of that. True, it may not be Theo's fault that his hands are tied financially, but it still sucks for fans. Yes, Eloy is worth less to Cubs than to other teams. But only about .1% less. He looks an awful lot like a middle-of-the-order bat 1.5 years from now, controllable for 6+ years. The Cubs have had the likes of Zobrist, Heyward, and Russell hitting in the 4/5 spots. And the Cubs are two games under .500. They need impact talent just like every other team, and whether it comes from an outfielder or a pitcher is irrelevant for a team that has scored and surrendered nearly an average amount of runs.

Zack: Also, Eloy is a dumb name. Can we get any trade value from Addison? Send him and Jeimer to the D for Justin Verlander (and Kate Upton).

Well, there we have it. A year later and the concerns of this deal have only been exacerbated as Quintana's velocity dropped while Eloy's OPS continued to soar. There's no certainty yet that this deal will end poorly for the Cubs...but it doesn't look good.

Best Trade Fits for the Bears at #39

This is purely an exercise in using the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, both because I'm interest in this exercise and because I'm still reeling from the con job that the Packers pulled on the Saints last night.

The Bears' best fit tonight is a deal with Carolina, pure and simple. Carolina holds their own 2nd round pick (#55) and two 3rd round picks (#85 and #88); naturally, a team with multiple 3rd rounders is likely the best best to be willing to move one. The value of #39 is 510 points. #55 is valued at 350 while #85 is 165 and #88 is 150. Accordingly, #39 for #55 and #85 would return 515 points while #55 and #88 would return 500 points. Either deal would be wonderful for the Bears and a huge win on the Chase Stuart chart (15.4 outgoing; either 20.4 or 20.1 incoming). The Bears best scenario when considering a deal with Carolina is that UTEP G Will Hernandez, Colorado CB Isaiah Oliver, Iowa CB Josh Jackson, or Alabama S Ronnie Harrison remains on the board when the Bears pick at #39. That might be an uphill battle with Cleveland picking at #33 and #35, Indianapolis picking at #36 and #37, and Tampa Bay picking at #38. All three teams have desperate needs in their secondary. Then again, a mini-run on defensive backs could kick up the sense of urgency that a team like Carolina feels to make a move to address their defensive backfield and/or could provide the value needed if Hernandez slips.

The next most likely scenario in my mind centers around the Cincinnati Bengals and their bevy of mid-round picks. The Bengals hold their own pick in the 2nd round (#46), their regular 3rd rounder (#77), a compensatory 3rd rounder (#100), their 4th rounder (#112), and three 5th rounders (#151, #158, #170). The Bears' best bet with Cincinnati is that they fall in love with South Dakota State TE Dallas Goedert and fear that the Dolphins or Patriots do too. In that case, the Bears could send #39 to Cincinnati for #46 (440, 13.9) and #112 (70, 5.9), a perfect match on the Jimmy Johnson chart that would give the Bears a 28% premium on the Stuart chart.

I think my favorite possibility, though something of a complicated deal, involves Denver. The thinking goes like this: Denver passed on their pick of non-Mayfield, non-Darnold quarterbacks last night at #5. It's probably just because Bradley Chubb was such incredible value. But what if they really believe in Case Keenum or Paxton Lynch as the guy? In that case, this may be a one-year turnaround in their minds. Could they get jealous of Cleveland and Indianapolis making two picks at the top of the 2nd round and want to get in on the fun? If so, I could see a deal where the Bears send #39 to Denver for #71 (235, 9.8), #99 (104, 6.9), #104 (86, 6.5) and next year's 3rd round pick. That's a big transaction. Pace would be trading a shot at more firepower for a shot at substantially more depth. Using the last pick of the 3rd round (112, 7.1) as the 2019 compensation, the Bears would receive 537 points for 510, using no discounting. However, that's also 30.3 points on the Stuart chart, nearly double the 15.4 of pick #39. This is a philosophical test. From a plausibility standpoint, the Broncos have two 4th and two 5th rounders in 2018 and an extra 5th in 2019, so they have a stable of picks from which to deal.

It's not impossible for me to envision a scenario in which the Colts fall in love with multiple prospects at the top of the 2nd round and decide to use some of their later-draft ammunition to move up. The Colts pick at #49 (410, 9.8), so they could use that pick and #104 (86, 6.5) to swap with the Bears (510, 15.4 outgoing; 496, 16.3 incoming).

A final possible alignment is a follow-up deal between Ryan Pace and John Lynch. Lynch found his quarterback when he acquired Jimmy Garoppolo and he protected him with Mike McGlinchy at #9. He has some nice toys in Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, and even Trent Taylor. But the 49ers' starters are 6'0", 5'9", and 5'8". They need a big body for Garoppolo to target in the red zone. Enter Courtland Sutton. If he's available at #39, it'll be awfully tough for San Francisco to pass on him. The Niners have #59 (310, 11.6), #70 (240, 10), and #74 (220, 9.4 - the Bears' pick sent over in the Trubisky deal). #59 and #74 together come awfully close to making this deal work (510, 15.4 outgoing; 530, 19.4 incoming). With Allen Robinson, Kevin White (ha!), Trey Burton, and Adam Shaheen, the Bears are brimming with big-bodied targets. They can pass on Sutton and target a smaller receiver later. With Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, James Washington, Dante Pettis (watch out for injuries!), DaeSean Hamilton, and even Cedrick Wilson or Braxton Berrios (who seems destined for New England) on the board, the Bears can be patient. For the 49ers, it's likely Sutton or a project. If they're thinking about winning in 2018 -- and having ended 2017 on a 6-1 run, why wouldn't they be? -- Garoppolo likely needs this additional target.

Pace already flipped the script last night, choosing a safer, scheme-diverse pick with his top pick instead of choosing the athletic specimen who needs to develop. Will he flip the 2nd round script too, staying put at #39 or even trading up? Or will it be more of the same (in a good way!), trading down to accumulate picks? Clarity will come this evening.

Looking at Pick #39

With Roquan Smith on board, the Bears' draft picture has cleared up in a major way...in that they won't draft another inside linebacker. Huh, that's it? Actually, I suppose that the forecast wasn't cleared up all that much.

The team's biggest positional needs remain at outside linebacker, wide receiver, cornerback, offensive line (the exact position is flexible), and defensive end. The team's biggest overall needs remain starting-caliber bodies and depth. It likely goes without saying that I'd love to see the Bears trade down from #39 tomorrow night. Unlike my pipe dream of Ryan Pace trading back in the 1st round, there's a reasonably good chance that he'll trade down tomorrow night: last year, Pace dropped from #36 to #45, picking up two 4th rounders in the process and improving his 7th into a 6th a year after picking up two 4th rounders for dropping from #41 to #49 before dropping again to #56, picking up an additional 4th rounder in the process. For a team that remains light on depth, such a move would be ideal, especially given the lack of a 3rd round pick tomorrow thanks to last year's Trubisky trade.

For this exercise, however, I'm going to presume that Pace stays put at #39.

Thankfully, the board has broken as well as could be hoped for the Bears.

The two positions of most glaring need are outside linebacker and wide receiver. Leonard Floyd, Aaron Lynch, and Sam Acho project as the rotation outside. Floyd is extremely injury prone, Lynch has 2.5 sacks total over the past two years, and Acho played each of the last three seasons on minimum salary deals. This need is glaring. Wide receiver isn't all that much prettier where the unplayable Josh Bellamy is 4th on the depth chart with two of the three wideouts ahead of him having missed nearly all of 2017 due to injury. Gulp. The defensive backfield needs another playable body or two while the offensive line need can be filled flexibly with a tackle prospect sliding in at guard or a center pushing Cody Whitehair back to guard.

There are some seriously strong options at #39, many of whom would have the opportunity to challenge for playing time on opening day. Here's my preference list for the pick:

1. OLB Arden Key (LSU)
----- This presumes that the front office is comfortable with Key. They're almost certainly not, so this is mostly a dream for another world.

2. OLB Harold Landry (Boston College)
----- Landry doesn't have Key's immense athleticism, but he's quick and insanely flexible. It might take him some time to grow into an every day role, but the Bears would be able to utilize his pass rushing skills immediately while he does that growing.

3. G Will Hernandez (UTEP)
----- I like him just as much as Quenton Nelson. So sue me.

4. C James Daniels (Iowa)
----- He should be a great fit for the interior of the line in Matt Nagy's offense given his impressive quickness.

5. OLB Rasheem Green (USC)
----- Crazy athletic, quite raw.

6. CB Holton Hill (Texas)
----- He's got that Tillman-esque build that I love.

7. WR Christian Kirk (Texas A&M)
----- He's grown on me over the past few months. He's got the quick-twitch movements to be a stud.

8. WR Courtland Sutton (SMU)
----- He's got the big frame and strong hands to be a plus receiver. He didn't have to play much in traffic or even regularly high-point the ball, but there's a dead homeless man's Alshon in there somewhere.

9. CB Isaiah Oliver (Colorado)
----- He might need a year or two to get outside, but he can help in the slot in the interim while developing his technique. The size/speed combo is there and it's tough to find.

10. G/C Austin Corbett (Nevada)
----- He's like Cody Whitehair 2.0.

11. CB Josh Jackson (Iowa)
----- I still don't know if he's fast enough to make it work.

11 is enough prospects for tonight. I do love Maurice Hurst and think that he'll make a fine pro. I just don't think he'll do it in a 3-4.

Predictions for the Top Eight Picks Tonight

There are seemingly endless mock drafts and draft thoughts floating around the internet right now, but with the first round just a few hours away, it's time to make a specific pick for what happens. So here goes:

1. Cleveland Browns: QB Sam Darnold (USC)
----- I don't buy all the hubbub about Baker Mayfield.

2. New York Giants: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
----- They can't pick this high and not take a quarterback...right? With Eli getting another year or two, they can wait for Allen to develop to see if that helps him reach his ceiling.

3. New York Jets: QB Josh Rosen (UCLA)
----- Of all the teams to be afraid of a big personality, I think the Jets embrace Rosen just fine.

4. Cleveland Browns: RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
----- This pick has a great chance to be traded, but in the end, I think that the Browns make the play for the elite back to help carry the load while Darnold develops.

5. Denver Broncos: QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
----- Elway wouldn't immediately seem to be a natural fit for Mayfield, but I suspect that Mayfield's big personality will be a plus for Elway, not a deterrent.

6. Indianapolis Colts: DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
----- I'm sure that the Colts would prefer to trade this pick, but if Chubb or Barkley makes it to #6, they'll hold the pick and do a jig.

7. TRADE: San Francisco 49ers: G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
----- The 2015 draft, where the first traded pick was #15, was an anomaly. Accordingly, I expect the trade action to pick up with a vengeance at this juncture. The 49ers give Indianapolis the fourth rounder they got in the Vance McDonald trade to jump the Bears and nab Nelson. Tampa Bay has huge needs in the secondary and at offensive tackle, so they can move down a few spots and still get a great player at a position of maximum need.

8. Chicago Bears: DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)
----- I really, really, really want Pace to trade down. But I don't think he'll do it here (wait for round two on that front). Instead, he adds a dynamic piece to his secondary in the mold of Jalen Ramsey, a plus athlete who played all over the defensive backfield in college. Will I love this pick? Meh. After pouring huge assets into the cornerback position in free agency, with two average-or-better starting safeties in house, and with a gaggle of bottom-of-the-roster recent draftees to fill up the defensive back depth chart, this wouldn't be my pick. But in a passing league, it's tough to hate this kind of move.

Major takeaway: I don't think you'll see any trades among the top six picks because the teams drafting at the top all need quarterbacks and the teams drafting immediately behind them will have too hard of a time passing up on the draft's best talents sitting on the board. The real action starts with Tampa Bay, from where the draft could come completely unhinged. I hope so: that'd be fun!