Best Trade Fits for the Bears at #39

This is purely an exercise in using the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, both because I'm interest in this exercise and because I'm still reeling from the con job that the Packers pulled on the Saints last night.

The Bears' best fit tonight is a deal with Carolina, pure and simple. Carolina holds their own 2nd round pick (#55) and two 3rd round picks (#85 and #88); naturally, a team with multiple 3rd rounders is likely the best best to be willing to move one. The value of #39 is 510 points. #55 is valued at 350 while #85 is 165 and #88 is 150. Accordingly, #39 for #55 and #85 would return 515 points while #55 and #88 would return 500 points. Either deal would be wonderful for the Bears and a huge win on the Chase Stuart chart (15.4 outgoing; either 20.4 or 20.1 incoming). The Bears best scenario when considering a deal with Carolina is that UTEP G Will Hernandez, Colorado CB Isaiah Oliver, Iowa CB Josh Jackson, or Alabama S Ronnie Harrison remains on the board when the Bears pick at #39. That might be an uphill battle with Cleveland picking at #33 and #35, Indianapolis picking at #36 and #37, and Tampa Bay picking at #38. All three teams have desperate needs in their secondary. Then again, a mini-run on defensive backs could kick up the sense of urgency that a team like Carolina feels to make a move to address their defensive backfield and/or could provide the value needed if Hernandez slips.

The next most likely scenario in my mind centers around the Cincinnati Bengals and their bevy of mid-round picks. The Bengals hold their own pick in the 2nd round (#46), their regular 3rd rounder (#77), a compensatory 3rd rounder (#100), their 4th rounder (#112), and three 5th rounders (#151, #158, #170). The Bears' best bet with Cincinnati is that they fall in love with South Dakota State TE Dallas Goedert and fear that the Dolphins or Patriots do too. In that case, the Bears could send #39 to Cincinnati for #46 (440, 13.9) and #112 (70, 5.9), a perfect match on the Jimmy Johnson chart that would give the Bears a 28% premium on the Stuart chart.

I think my favorite possibility, though something of a complicated deal, involves Denver. The thinking goes like this: Denver passed on their pick of non-Mayfield, non-Darnold quarterbacks last night at #5. It's probably just because Bradley Chubb was such incredible value. But what if they really believe in Case Keenum or Paxton Lynch as the guy? In that case, this may be a one-year turnaround in their minds. Could they get jealous of Cleveland and Indianapolis making two picks at the top of the 2nd round and want to get in on the fun? If so, I could see a deal where the Bears send #39 to Denver for #71 (235, 9.8), #99 (104, 6.9), #104 (86, 6.5) and next year's 3rd round pick. That's a big transaction. Pace would be trading a shot at more firepower for a shot at substantially more depth. Using the last pick of the 3rd round (112, 7.1) as the 2019 compensation, the Bears would receive 537 points for 510, using no discounting. However, that's also 30.3 points on the Stuart chart, nearly double the 15.4 of pick #39. This is a philosophical test. From a plausibility standpoint, the Broncos have two 4th and two 5th rounders in 2018 and an extra 5th in 2019, so they have a stable of picks from which to deal.

It's not impossible for me to envision a scenario in which the Colts fall in love with multiple prospects at the top of the 2nd round and decide to use some of their later-draft ammunition to move up. The Colts pick at #49 (410, 9.8), so they could use that pick and #104 (86, 6.5) to swap with the Bears (510, 15.4 outgoing; 496, 16.3 incoming).

A final possible alignment is a follow-up deal between Ryan Pace and John Lynch. Lynch found his quarterback when he acquired Jimmy Garoppolo and he protected him with Mike McGlinchy at #9. He has some nice toys in Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, and even Trent Taylor. But the 49ers' starters are 6'0", 5'9", and 5'8". They need a big body for Garoppolo to target in the red zone. Enter Courtland Sutton. If he's available at #39, it'll be awfully tough for San Francisco to pass on him. The Niners have #59 (310, 11.6), #70 (240, 10), and #74 (220, 9.4 - the Bears' pick sent over in the Trubisky deal). #59 and #74 together come awfully close to making this deal work (510, 15.4 outgoing; 530, 19.4 incoming). With Allen Robinson, Kevin White (ha!), Trey Burton, and Adam Shaheen, the Bears are brimming with big-bodied targets. They can pass on Sutton and target a smaller receiver later. With Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, James Washington, Dante Pettis (watch out for injuries!), DaeSean Hamilton, and even Cedrick Wilson or Braxton Berrios (who seems destined for New England) on the board, the Bears can be patient. For the 49ers, it's likely Sutton or a project. If they're thinking about winning in 2018 -- and having ended 2017 on a 6-1 run, why wouldn't they be? -- Garoppolo likely needs this additional target.

Pace already flipped the script last night, choosing a safer, scheme-diverse pick with his top pick instead of choosing the athletic specimen who needs to develop. Will he flip the 2nd round script too, staying put at #39 or even trading up? Or will it be more of the same (in a good way!), trading down to accumulate picks? Clarity will come this evening.