Dreaming about Nittany and 2019 Big Ten Football Picks

Last year when I wrote this piece, I included this hilarious combination of sentences:

"It's no secret that while I respected JFF's abilities as a recruiter, I've long been unimpressed with his gameday coaching abilities. That position is largely untenable at this point."

Ha!

To be fair, the 2016 and 2017 seasons did provide an incredible narrative arc for JFF on gameday. Following the beatdown at the hands of Michigan to close out September 2016, the 20 wins and ultra-close loses to USC, Ohio State, and Michigan State over the following 23 games had most fans feeling great.

Then 2018 happened. And I was reminded that JFF needs a massive talent advantage or a few strokes of great luck to overcome his gameday shortcomings. The Ohio State loss in 2018 was excruciating, but the teams were largely evenly matched. The Michigan State loss was inexcusable as Nittany fell to a hobbled team at home coming off of its bye. The Michigan loss was embarrassing as the team was uncompetitive with the Wolverines for the second time in three years. The Kentucky loss, however, perfectly encapsulated JFF's major flaw: he's incredibly conservative during games, even when his team is the underdog. Despite trailing 10-0 early and then 27-7 entering the fourth quarter, Franklin inexplicably largely kept the reins tight, only allowing outgoing senior quarterback Trace McSorley the freedom on which he so fully thrives when desperation set in...before calling for a mid-range field goal to take away Penn State's last remaining quality scoring chance despite being down six late in the fourth quarter. Brutal.

So where does that leave Penn State heading into 2019? In an extremely tenuous situation.

The 2019 squad is loaded with underclassmen talent. That's a good thing. However, the upperclassmen ranks are alarmingly sparse. The team has a manageable schedule (more on that later), but Franklin needs to fundamentally change his gameday coaching, especially against quality opposition, if he wants to take his shot at glory. Nittany has a talent deficiency against the likes of Ohio State and Michigan, and there's a chasm between the coaching quality of Franklin and Michigan State's Mark Dantonio. It's no surprise, then, that Franklin is 1-4 against each of his Big Ten East rivals.

The path to overcoming those teams is twofold and extremely challenging: Franklin needs to continue to recruit nationally elite classes while improving significantly as a gameday coach. That's a tall order.

The first prong is largely continuing along as it has in past years as detailed here and a strong half-full 2020 class. That's true even in the aftermath of the devastating losses of DE Bryan Bresee to Clemson and especially WR Julian Fleming to Ohio State. (EDIT: I wrote much of this post before Nittany suffered three significant decommitments in the span of a week, made even worse by the best prospect in the group flipping immediately to the Buckeyes. Oof.)

Can Franklin kick it up on gameday? The odds are stacked against him...but here's hoping.

Here's a position by position look at the scholarship group with which Franklin will try to make some surprising noise in 2019. New starters are italicized.

Quarterback
Projected Starter: RS SO Sean Clifford (★★★★)
Reserves: RS FR Will Levis (★★★)
Recruits: Ta'Quan Roberson (★★★★), Michael Johnson, Jr. (★★★★)

Woah. That's one thin depth chart. Levis was originally seen as a system guy who likely wouldn't ever ascend to the top of the depth chart given that he arrived with McSorley, Tommy Stevens, and Clifford all ahead of him and all much more highly regarded. With McSorley off to the NFL and Stevens reunited with former Nittany Offensive Coordinator Joe Moorhead at Mississippi State as a graduate transfer, Levis finds himself one Clifford injury away from starting...and leaving a true freshman on deck.

Speaking of Clifford, I figured he had slightly better than 50/50 odds to win the starting gig even with Stevens on campus. Clifford is a much better passer -- although Stevens was a much better runner -- and Clifford got meaningful repetitions last year behind McSorley when the rugged three-year starter missed time with injuries with Stevens also out. Nevertheless, it's an awful lot to put the future of the program on the shoulders of an untested sophomore. Then again, the same thing was said at this time three years ago and McSorley emerged as an all-time great for the blue and white. Here's hoping lightning strikes twice.

Rating: ★★★

Running Back
Projected Starter: SO Ricky Slade (★★★★★)
Reserves: RS SO Journey Brown (★★★)
Recruits: Noah Cain (★★★★), Devyn Ford (★★★★)

This group is also very young, which might cause concern for some. Not me. Running back remains the easiest position from which an underclassman can make an impact, and Nittany is loaded with impact talent here. Slade may not be ready for 25 carries a game, but given the depth chart behind him, that's not a problem. He won't need to shoulder such a heavy load. The team should expect another dropoff after going from Saquon Barkley to Miles Sanders, but this is still a very strong group.

Rating: ★★★★

Tight End
Projected Starter: SO Pat Freiermuth (★★★★)
Reserves: RS SR Nick Bowers (★★★), RS FR Zack Kuntz (★★★★), RS SR Jon Holland (★★★)
Recruits: Brenton Strange (★★★★)

When Mike Gesicki returned for his senior year in 2017, Penn State fans breathed a sigh of relief knowing that the tight end spot would be safe for at least another year, punting the team's transition to 2018. There were plenty of bodies around to fill the role, but uncertainty abounded. No more. Freiermuth exploded onto the scene and earned numerous Freshman All-American honors, solidifying the position group.

But it doesn't end there. Bowers flashed superb athleticism after finally getting healthy mid-season, Holland was solid in his own time. Kuntz added a good chunk of weight during his redshirt year. And Franklin fought off charges from tight end hotbeds Ohio State and Notre Dame to land Strange.

Rating: ★★★★★

Wide Receiver
Projected Starters: RS SO KJ Hamler (★★★★), SO Jahan Dotson (★★★★), RS FR Justin Shorter (★★★★★)
Reserves: RS SR Weston Carr (0), RS FR Daniel George (★★★★), RS SO Mac Hippenhammer (★★★), RS SO Cam Sullivan-Brown (★★★), RS SR Dan Chisena (0), RS JR Isaac Lutz (0)
Recruits: John Dunmore (★★★★), TJ Jones (★★★★)

There's already a lot of hand wringing going on about the Nittany receiver group, especially after RS SR Juwan Johnson bolted for Oregon...but I'm in the exact opposite bucket. I'm much more excited for this year's group.

Hamler quickly emerged as the best player on the edge for the offense and Dotson pushed his way into meaningful playing time as a freshman. Shorter was slowed by injuries until late in the season and he looked raw, but he comes with the ideal pedigree and some late-season production. To make matters even better, George has been a breakout star of spring ball while Hippenhammer and Sullivan-Brown offer good, experienced depth.

Carr could be a real wild card. The younger brother of former Northwestern receiver Austin Carr, Weston comes to State College after a prolific career at Division II Azusa Pacific. In a room starved for veteran leadership, he could be a helpful presence on and off the field.

Of course, last year at this time I expected Johnson to play his way into the first round of the draft with DeAndre Thompkins complementing him along the way. Instead, those two combined for more drops than I can count, nearly single-handedly hamstringing the offense in the Citrus Bowl. Their production won't be missed, outside of Johnson's run blocking.

This group surely comes with risk, but the young players being relied upon to make some noise have either already produced or come with excellent pedigrees...and none of them are rookies. I'll take it.

Rating: ★★★★

Offensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS JR Will Fries (★★★), RS FR Rasheed Walker (★★★★)
Reserves: JR Anthony Whigan (★★★★ - JUCO), RS SO Des Holmes (★★★), RS FR Bryce Effner (★★★), RS JR Hunter Kelly (0)
Recruits: None

Ryan Bates screwed up real bad. And it's likely that both he and the 2019 Penn State football team will pay dearly for it.

After three strong but imperfect years of play, Bates declared for the NFL draft, yet he went undrafted and faces long odds to a professional career.

The offensive line he left behind would have looked very strong with him on board. Instead, while Fries returns with 20 starts between the two tackle spots under his belt, the other spot is up for grabs. The hope is surely that Walker grabs a job and runs with it. If that plan fails, bringing in Whigan could prove prescient.

Nevertheless, on the whole, the depth here is underwhelming and there's a wide open starting spot. That doesn't encourage confidence, especially not when breaking in a new quarterback who figures to be much less mobile than the old one.

The 2020 recruiting class currently features a trio of top verbal commits in Aaryn Parks, Grant Toutant, and Olu Fashanu, but none of them are helping anytime soon. (EDIT: Parks decommited and Toutant flipped to Ohio State.)

Rating: ★★

Guard
Projected Starters: RS SR Steven Gonzalez (★★★★), RS SO Mike Miranda (★★★)
Reserves: RS SO C.J. Thorpe (★★★★)
Recruits: Caedan Wallace (★★★★), Saleem Wormley (★★★★)

Gonzalez is a godsend after electing to return to school for his senior year. Hopefully his strong, veteran presence leads to big things up front and pushes him toward a strong professional career.

The other guard spot is up for grabs between Miranda and Thorpe. I'd give Miranda the slight edge given that Thorpe lost some development time after spending a few months at defensive tackle last fall, but Thorpe is feisty and powerful, a couple of true assets in the interior of the offensive line. The recruits offer a nice bridge to the future.

Rating: ★★★

Center
Projected Starter: RS JR Michal Menet (★★★★)
Reserves: RS FR Juice Scruggs (★★★★)
Recruits: None.

Menet took a year or two longer to grow into a starting role than many Nittany fans hoped, but he was ready to roll as a RS SO last year and figures to anchor the line. Having a strong pivot is great.

Unfortunately, Scruggs -- a big recruiting win over Ohio State and Michigan -- was involved in a car accident that sapped valuable development time and likely threatens his availability this fall, further hampering the depth up front.

Rating: ★★★★

Defensive End
Projected Starters: JR Yetur Gross-Matos (★★★★), RS FR Jayson Oweh (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Shaka Toney (★★★), RS JR Shane Simmons (★★★★), RS JR Daniel Joseph (★★★★), RS FR Nick Tarburton (★★★★)
Recruits: Adisa Isaac (★★★★), Smith Vilbert (★★★)

This is just fun.

Gross-Matos will almost certainly be going through OTAs for an NFL club at this time next year; he is poised for big things this fall after a stellar sophomore campaign.

Whoever lines up opposite him will have plenty of opportunities to make an impact as part of a rotation. Toney might get the first crack at the job and Simmons has shown flashes in the past, but my bet is that Oweh's extreme athletic advantage propels him into the majority of the available snaps, especially with a year of coaching under his belt.

Regardless, the depth here is absurd. I mean that as both a positive -- it's great to have so much talent at defensive end -- and a negative -- there are eight scholarship defensive ends for two jobs compared to just 12 scholarship offensive linemen for five jobs.

Rating: ★★★★★

Defensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS SR Robert Windsor (★★★★), SO P.J. Mustipher (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Antonio Shelton (★★★), RS SO Fred Hansard (★★★★), RS SO Damion Barber (★★★★), RS JR Ellison Jordan (★★★★), RS FR Judge Culpepper (★★★), RS FR Aeneas Hawkins (★★★)
Recruits: Hakeem Beamon (★★★★), D'Von Ellies (★★★★), Joseph Appiah Darkwa (★★★)

If the ratio of defensive ends to offensive linemen is ridiculous, the ratio of defensive tackles to offensive linemen is patently absurd. Thankfully, the over-the-top numbers have resulted in a position group that should be strong.

Windsor surprisingly grew into a starter in recent years and figures to push for All-Big Ten consideration this year. The intrigue in the group, however, centers on who fills the spot next to him. There are numerous contenders for the job, but much suspicion is that Mustipher will get the most significant opportunities to win the job given his production and pedigree. Regardless, at a position where depth reigns supreme, Nittany finds themselves loaded in quality rotation bodies.

Rating: ★★★★

Inside Linebacker
Projected Starter: RS SR Jan Johnson (0)
Reserves: RS SO Ellis Brooks (★★★★)
Recruits: Brandon Smith (★★★★★)

I frequently criticize Franklin's gameday coaching skills, but perhaps his biggest coaching decision for the 2019 season will be found here: can he stomach moving Johnson to the bench in favor of Brooks before Johnson's physical limitations inevitably materialize and cost the team a game or two? Or will his loyalty to Johnson -- a former wrestler who walked on to the football team, played when the 2016 team was beset by a rash of injuries, suffered his own significant knee injury, then played his way into a scholarship -- result in an extra loss or more?

That decision is the only limitation in this group where Brooks appears ready for the starting role with Smith surely ready to push him quickly.

Rating: ★★★★

Outside Linebacker
Projected Starters: SO Micah Parsons (★★★★★), RS SR Cam Brown (★★★★)
Reserves: SO Jesse Luketa (★★★★), RS FR Charlie Katshir (★★★)
Recruits: Lance Dixon (★★★★)

The inside linebacker group is fun. The outside linebacker group is probably as good as any in the country. Parsons is an every-down force while Brown is an ideal complement given his rangy skills. But don't miss Luketa who will surely force his way into even more playing time in 2019.

Linebacker U has been a dormant moniker in recent years. No more. Expect to hear it a lot this fall. This is going to be fun.

Rating: ★★★★★

Cornerback
Projected Starters: RS SR John Reid (★★★★), JR Tariq Castro-Fields (★★★★), RS SO Donovan Johnson (★★★★)
Reserves: RS SO D.J. Brown (★★★), RS FR Trent Gordon (★★★)
Recruits: Keaton Ellis (★★★★), Joey Porter Jr. (★★★★), Daequan Hardy (★★★), Marquis Wilson (★★★)

This group is quite strong at the top, but I have some latent concerns. Reid is a plus starter, though he has a concerning injury history. Castro-Fields has been a regular player for both of his first two years on campus and he has the body to shift out of the slot, but a new role is a new role. Johnson is a great athlete, but he comes with physical limitations as he size makes him a matchup nightmare in the wrong way.

I fully expect Ellis to get some run as a true freshman given his size and superb spring. It's possible that one of the freshman carves out a nice role and mitigates my concerns about the current depth options. It's also possible, however, that the diminutive stature of the outside defenders creates too many matchup problems for the defense.

Rating: ★★★

Safety
Projected Starters: RS SR Garrett Taylor (★★★★), RS SO Johnathan Sutherland (★★★★)
Reserves: JR Lamont Wade (★★★★), JR Jaquan Brisker (★★★★ - JUCO), RS SR John Petrishen (★★★)
Recruits: Tyler Rudolph (★★★★)

Taylor is well-positioned for a huge year at safety after an excellent first year starting in 2018. Nittany has to hope that he survives the year healthy and plays every meaningful snap. If he does, he'll likely find his way onto some draft boards next spring given Nittany's penchant for getting safeties drafted.

But the spot next to him? That's wide open. The coaching staff likely hoped that Wade would win the job, but he has seriously disappointed to date and he didn't earn any internal favors by spending months in the transfer portal. Thankfully, Sutherland has impressed with big hits in his limited playing time and Brisker was a big JUCO get, the rare JUCO with an Alabama offer.

In the end, the top four safeties look strong.

Rating: ★★★★

Specialists
Projected Starters: SR Punter Blake Gillikin (★★★), SO Kicker Jake Pinegar (★★★), RS SO Kicker Jordan Stout (0)
Reserves: None.
Recruits: None.

Gillikin has been a consistent producer and he should be a reliable punter as a senior.

But Pinegar was dreadful as a freshman leading to significant concerns in the kicking game. He'll need to show marked improvement to stave off a challenge to his job. That challenge could very well come from Stout, a Virginia Tech transfer who was not on scholarship in Blacksburg and thus finds himself immediately eligible. While he'll be expected to produce an elite touchback rate, Pinegar could very well open the door for placekicks as well.

Rating: ★★★

Coaching
Projected Starters: HC James Franklin, DC Brent Pry, OC Ricky Rahne
Reserves: None.
Recruits: None.

Franklin's recruiting prowess has much of this roster in good shape. His sideline coaching is poor.

On the bright side, Nittany has some year-over-year consistency with Pry and Rahne both returning to the same jobs this year. But neither is terribly exciting as of yet. Pry has a chance to parlay an extremely talented defense into a head coaching job elsewhere this year. Let's see if he pulls it off.

Rating: ★★★

Position Rankings
In an effort to collate the rankings from above, here are my picks for the position groups worked best to worst:

1. Outside Linebacker (★★★★★)
2. Tight End (★★★★★)
3. Defensive End (★★★★★)
4. Running Back (★★★★★)
5. Safety (★★★★)
6. Center (★★★★)
7. Wide Receiver (★★★★)
8. Inside Linebacker (★★★★)
9. Defensive Tackle (★★★★)
10. Cornerback (★★★)
11. Guard (★★★)
12. Quarterback (★★★)
13. Specialists (★★★)
14. Offensive Tackle (★★)

Overall, the health of the program in 2019 is good. Unfortunately, the quarterback and offensive tackle spots are hugely concerning as struggles at either spot could sink an offense...but struggles at both spots? That can sink an entire season.

Fortunately, as a Bears fan, I've seen plenty of uninspiring offenses propped up by elite defenses. And this 2019 Penn State defense could be the best one they've had since Tom Bradley was running the show on that side of the ball. There's impact talent at each level, there's depth everywhere, and there's lots of experience to boot.

The Schedule

The schedule isn't exactly brutal -- Nittany avoids Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Northwestern among their crossovers, gets Michigan at home, and features one of the easiest non-conference slates in the Big Ten -- but it isn't without its difficult contests, namely road dates at Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Minnesota in addition to a home date with Big Ten favorite Michigan. This schedule would be much more manageable for a less flawed team. Alas. Here are the picks:

@ Penn State 40, Idaho 10

@ Penn State 37, Buffalo 13

@ Penn State 28, Pittsburgh 10

BYE

Penn State 23, @ Maryland 20

@ Penn State 28, Purdue 27

@ Iowa 19, Penn State 16

Michigan 28, @ Penn State 14

Penn State 16, @ Michigan State 14

BYE

@ Minnesota 20, Penn State 17

@ Penn State 35, Indiana 10

@ Ohio State 38, Penn State 10

@ Penn State 44, Rutgers 7

This would leave the Lions at 8-4 (5-4) and headed to the Holiday Bowl, trailing Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Northwestern in the pecking order and sliding in behind Michigan State due to specific bowl preferences. This would be a weird season as beating Dantonio in East Lansing would feel like a major accomplishment...but uncompetitive losses to Michigan and Ohio State yet again would be awfully frustrating, as would losses to overmatched opponents in Iowa and Minnesota.

Speaking of the rest of the Big Ten, here are my projected standings (based on picking every game for each team) and brief thoughts about the various teams:

Big Ten East

1. Michigan - 12-0 (9-0)
2. Ohio State - 11-1 (8-1)
3. Penn State - 8-4 (5-4)
4. Michigan State - 8-4 (5-4)
5. Indiana - 5-7 (2-7)
6. Rutgers - 3-9 (1-8)
7. Maryland - 2-10 (1-8)

• Michigan and Ohio State are once again on a collision course to determine the conference's best team.
• Michigan's advantage with Shea Patterson finally pushes them over the top, especially as Ohio State transitions away from decades of dominance under Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer. Despite some notable losses on defense, Don Brown retools his unit well enough to complement the high-powered offense.
• Ryan Day and Justin Fields have no trouble whatsoever picking up where Urban Meyer and Dwayne Haskins left off...until the regular season finale. Their cakewalk non-conference slate -- Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, and Miami (OH) -- enables the team to work through any hiccups before the real games begin.
• Penn State and Michigan State are mirror images of each other: spectacular defenses undone by subpar offenses. Either team could win six or ten games depending on offensive output.
• Mike Locksley only gets one year in College Park before Maryland decides to go another direction.

Big Ten West

1. Northwestern - 8-4 (6-3)
2. Nebraska - 9-3 (6-3)
3. Minnesota - 9-3 (6-3)
4. Iowa - 7-5 (5-4)
5. Wisconsin - 7-5 (4-5)
6. Purdue - 6-6 (4-5)
7. Illinois - 3-9 (1-8)

• It's a real cluster at the top as Hunter Johnson narrowly propels Northwestern back to Indianapolis.
• Adrian Martinez and Scott Frost click beautifully and Frost is the toast of Lincoln as he takes the program back to heights not seen since...Bo Pelini did it every year.
• P.J. Fleck reminds everyone that what he did rowing the boat at Western Michigan was no fluke.
• Wisconsin struggles through their worst season in years, but QB Graham Mertz ascends to the top of the depth chart before the season ends, enabling fans to paint rosy pictures of the future.
• Lovie Smith doesn't make it through the year as Illinois hasn't made any discernible progress during his tenure.

Bowl Assignments

• Peach (CFP): Michigan
• Fiesta (CFP): Ohio State
• Rose: Nebraska
• Citrus: Northwestern
• Outback: Michigan State
• Holiday: Penn State
• TaxSlayer: Minnesota
• Pinstripe: Purdue
• Redbox: Wisconsin
• Quick Lane: Iowa

Penn State's 2019 Recruiting Class Followed 2018 with Aplomb

Last year, I dug into the Nittany recruiting class, remarking at how strong the offers were for the prospects that eventually comprised the Nittany class: the spurned offers were littered with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, and even Alabama.

After commending head coach James Franklin for signing one of the school's best classes ever, I examined all of Penn State's classes for the prior decade in depth. Go read that piece for a full summary. For this piece, a brief primer will suffice:

Paterno's Last Five Classes
2007: 39th (14 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 4 ★★★★, 9 ★★★)
2008: 40th (15 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 9 ★★★)
2009: 19th (24 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 7 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)
2010: 13th (18 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 13 ★★★★, 5 ★★★)

2011: 31st (16 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

The 2012 Class (Paterno, an exodus, then O'Brien)
2012: 47th (20 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 3 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)

O'Brien's Class
2013: 33rd (16 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 3 ★★★★, 11 ★★★)

The 2014 Class (O'Brien, then Franklin)
2014: 24th (25 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 20 ★★★)

Franklin's First Four Classes
2015: 14th (25 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 13 ★★★★, 12 ★★★)

2016: 20th (20 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 7 ★★★★, 11 ★★★)

2017: 15th (22 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 11 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

2018: 6th (23 recruits, 3 ★★★★★, 12 ★★★★, 8 ★★★)

The 2019 class looked like it would be smaller than the preceding classes, but the quality of the recruits was right in line with Franklin's best groups even as he added a group of three-star recruits at the end of the cycle. As was the case last year, the point of this post is simple: the players that comprise the class are largely players targeted by elite peer institutions. Plus, it's helping me to deal with the disappointment of Nittany missing out on both Bryan Bresee and Julian Fleming in the last few weeks despite both of those elite 2020 prospects being in Nittany's own backyard. Here's the top five offers for each player in the Penn State class (using my own highly unofficial prestige rankings).

• ★★★★★ ILB Brandon Smith
• Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame
• ★★★★ RB Devyn Ford
• Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame, USC
• ★★★★ G Caedan Wallace
• Clemson, Michigan, Florida, Auburn, LSU
• ★★★★ DE Adisa Isaac
• Alabama, Michigan, Florida, LSU, Miami
• ★★★★ RB Noah Cain
• Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Auburn
• ★★★★ WR John Dunmore
• Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Florida, Miami
• ★★★★ OLB Lance Dixon
• Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Texas A&M, Michigan State

• ★★★★ S Tyler Rudolph
• Ohio State, Clemson, Michigan, Florida, Virginia Tech
• ★★★★ QB Ta'Quan Roberson
• Ohio State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Maryland, Syracuse
• ★★★★ OT Anthony Whigan (JUCO)
• TCU, South Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Pittsburgh
• ★★★★ DT D'Von Ellies
• Ohio State, USC, Michigan, Florida, Nebraska
• ★★★★ G Saleem Wormley
• Notre Dame, Florida State, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pittsburgh (Yale, too)
• ★★★★ DE Hakeem Beamon
• Alabama, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, West Virginia
• ★★★★ CB Keaton Ellis
• Syracuse, Buffalo (Ellis is from State College, PA, and committed before his junior year)
• ★★★★ CB Joey Porter Jr.
• LSU, Miami, West Virginia, Nebraska, Pittsburgh
• ★★★★ S Jaquan Brisker (JUCO)
• Alabama, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Mississippi State
• ★★★★ TE Brenton Strange
• Ohio State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Maryland, Purdue
• ★★★★ QB Michael Johnson Jr.
• Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan

• ★★★ CB Marquis Wilson
• Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Florida State
• ★★★ WR TJ Jones
• Florida, Texas A&M, Miami, Oregon, Nebraska
• ★★★ DE Smith Vilbert
• Florida, Florida State, Oregon, Miami, Nebraska
• ★★★ DT Joseph Appiah Darkwa
• UCLA, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Indiana
• ★★★ CB Daequan Hardy
• Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State, Navy, Army

When I initially drafted this piece at the end of the fall, it appeared to me that Nittany would shed at least five players via the transfer window. Well now. Instead, the team lost 12 players to the transfer portal in addition to those players that had previously been kicked off of the team. I surmised that S John Petrishen, LB Dae'lun Darien, and CB D.J. Brown appeared likely to explore a transfer given their statuses on the depth chart, further noting that OLB Jarvis Miller, TE Jon Holland, and TE Danny Dalton could consider looking elsewhere for playing time; WR Cam Sullivan-Brown was an unconventional transfer possibility.

In the end, here's what happened:

QB Tommy Stevens (graduate) --> Mississippi State
WR Juwan Johnson (graduate) --> Oregon
TE Danny Dalton (graduate) --> Boston College
OLB Jarvis Miller (graduate) --> UMass
WR Brandon Polk (graduate) --> James Madison
CB Zechariah McPhearson (graduate) --> Texas Tech
S   Isaiah Humphries --> Cal
DE Torrence Brown (graduate) --> Southern Miss
OT Alex Gellerstedt (graduate) --> Virginia
S   Ayron Monroe (graduate) --> Temple
RB Mark Allen (graduate) --> Duquesne
OLB Dae'lun Darien --> Delaware

In addition to the above, both S Lamont Wade and WR Cam Sullivan-Brown entered their names into the portal but eventually elected to stick around, in part because other transfers opened up the depth chart. Penn State did add one incoming graduate transfer in D2 All-American WR Weston Carr.

Taken together and after adding a trio of upperclassmen walk-ons to scholarship, Nittany finds themselves entering the year with 80 scholarship players (or 81 if Carr is on scholarship).

The recruiting class turned out to be another strong one:

Franklin's Most Recent Class

2019: 13th (23 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 17 ★★★★, 5 ★★★)

It's a good thing that Franklin brought in such a strong class because his gameday coaching continues to lag horribly behind his peers, especially those in the Big Ten East, and he'll need a number of young players to step into key roles this year given the voluminous departures of upperclassmen depth players. In particular, the Class of 2018 figures to play an especially prominent role for the 2019 team. That's not terribly encouraging, though there's still reason for hope. More on that in a bit.

For now, after compiling just one top-15 class from 2007-14, Penn State can celebrate their fourth such class in five full years under Franklin.

Predicting an Unpleasant Trip to the Big House

October 25, 2009 was a beautiful fall day in Ann Arbor. OK, it was drizzly and cold, but that didn't matter as Daryll Clark and the Nittany Lions roared into the Big House at 6-1, ranked 13th in the land and ready to end the second portion of a deeply unpleasant skid. From 1997 through 2007, Penn State and Michigan played nine times. Michigan went 9-0 during that stretch, including four straight one-score victories from 2002-07. 2008 looked like it would be different as the Nittany Lions were scorching at 7-0, hosting a battered 2-4 Michigan team struggling with the transition to Rich Rodriguez's offense. Naturally, Michigan led 17-7 with two minutes left in the first half before Nittany ripped off 39 straight points to complete a 46-17 rout. That was awesome.

But it was also at Beaver Stadium. Winning in Ann Arbor had been an entirely different story. The Big House had become a house of horrors in the 2000s with no loss more painful than the sole blemish on the 2005 docket. Henne to Manningham. Ugh.

Anyway, I was scouting out law schools in the fall of 2009 and late October called for a visit to Ann Arbor. Michigan Law was great, but I'd be lying if I said the focus of the weekend wasn't on Saturday afternoon. Brother Mike and I scored third row seats in the end zone and settled in for a wet affair. As so often happens in Penn State-Michigan contests, the Wolverines easily drove the field to take an early lead and Nittany held only a narrow 10-7 lead late in the second quarter before blowing the game open thanks to a safety on an errant snap followed by a 60-yard touchdown pass. In the end, Clark pieced together one of his finest afternoons, throwing for 230 yards and four touchdowns while Evan Royster chipped in 100 yards on the ground. The defensive highlight was linebacker NaVorro Bowman intercepting reserve Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson. I wonder whatever happened to that guy…

I bring up October 25, 2009 both because it is my favorite in-person Nittany memory and because it is the only time Penn State has won a game in Ann Arbor since 1996, a pitiful 1-8 record over that stretch.

There's also the matter of how James Franklin fares in big games. Simply put, he turtles. He never fails to coach an ultra-conservative game whenever he feels that Nittany is the favorite, something that nearly always occurs far too early in the contest. One manifestation of that: Franklin is 1-12 in his career on the road versus teams that ended the year in the AP top-25, a mark that is difficult to fathom for a coach that has spent the majority of his coaching career at a traditional football factory. The only win came last year against Northwestern. 2018 Michigan is not 2017 Northwestern.

This is the best Penn State team heading to the Big House since that 2009 team (the 2016 team definitely wasn't great in September), but this team is flawed and the flaws are clear:

• The special teams are a nightmare. JR P Blake Gillikin went from All-American candidate to below-average punter. Last week, Gillikin dropped a snap that resulted in a safety while senior long snapper Kyle Vasey sent another snap soaring over his head for, yes, another safety. Freshman kicker Jake Pinegar went 3-for-3 against Iowa last week in a crucial win, but had been a disaster entering that game. Incredibly, the special teams succumbed to impact fake kicks against Michigan State, Indiana, and Iowa in three consecutive weeks. That's mind blowing. DeAndre Thompkins and KJ Hamler have each offered some big plays in the return game; that's something.
• The veteran wide receivers all took a turn for the worse at the same time. Thompkins, Brandon Polk, and especially Juwan Johnson all lost their hands this year and it has stunted the offense. There's no way QB Trace McSorley will have confidence throwing them the ball this week. Instead, his three favorite targets as RS FR Hamler, FR WR Jahan Dotson, and FR TE Pat Freiermuth. It's great to have freshmen contribute; it's bad when the only contributors are freshmen.
• Speaking of McSorley, he's awesome…but he's also hurt. He injured his knee against Iowa in such a way that he cannot move laterally. McSorley without lateral movement is a super smart, OK-armed, undersized RS SR. That's fine. Problem is, Nittany needs McSorley to be All-American caliber. He is when he can run laterally and north-south (ask Ohio State). Instead, he'll be a sitting duck against Michigan.
• Nittany has gotten excellent production from its DEs (RS JR Shareef Miller has been good; SO Yetur Gross-Matos has been stellar), DBs, and Micah Parsons at LB. Cam Brown has also been solid at LB. Unfortunately, RS SR LB Koa Farmer and the DT rotation have disappointed, causing some problems in a front seven that has been gashed at times. RS JR DT Kevin Givens has largely disappointed this year while RS JR DT Robert Windsor has mixed spurts of effectiveness with disappearing acts. And Michigan will positively embarrass RS JR LB Jan Johnson (recently scholarshiped for some reason) whenever he's on the field. He's too slow to cover skill position players anywhere on the field.

Of course, it's not all bad news. What gives me hope?

• Nittany has struggled a lot more with true spread approaches than against power. Michigan is likely to operate primarily out of power sets. Michigan will also likely target receivers in one-on-one matchups with defensive backs, and Penn State RS SR CB Amani Oruwariye has enjoyed a superb year, save for slipping against Felton Davis last month.
• The Penn State offensive line has slowly morphed into the strength that it was expected to be entering the season, particularly the interior trio of LG RS JR Steven Gonzalez, RS SO C Michal Menet, and JR RG Connor McGovern. RS JR LT Ryan Bates has been solid while the rotation at RT with RS SR Chasz Wright and RS SO Will Fries has been adequate. Against Michigan's elite defensive front, an opponent likely needs an elite showing from its offensive line to have a real chance. Nittany has a line capable of delivering such a performance. JR RB Miles Sanders has been excellent (watch his touches against Michigan State), but every back needs at least a little bit of space. Perhaps the O-Line can provide that space on occasion.
• McSorley has won an awful lot of football games in his career, including a handful that nobody expected him to win. Given the losses to the Buckeyes and Spartans, winning in Ann Arbor is his only shot at a crowning achievement in his final season. Whatever intangible goodness is floating around out there gives him a shot, however slight.
•  If James Franklin turtles in big games, Jim Harbaugh goes full-on roly poly sometimes. If he tells Shea Patterson to beat Penn State throwing from the pocket instead of running around and utilizing his athleticism, Harbaugh could help keep things tighter than they might otherwise be.
• I probably undersold the impact of Oruwariye, RS JR CB John Reid, SO CB Tariq Castro-Fields, and RS JR S Garrett Taylor. As a group, they've been stellar while RS SR S Nick Scott has been solid. RS FR CB Donovan Johnson has looked OK at times and overmatched at others, a slightly worse version of Castro-Fields at this point.
• Gross-Matos and Miller both need to have monster games setting the edge and getting into Patterson's face. They're capable of doing that. If they can keep Karan Higdon and Co. inside the tackles and make the game about Parson's ability to tackle Higdon in confided spaces, we could have a real contest on our hands. I have a feeling RS SO DE Shaka Toney will look like Leonard Floyd tomorrow (that is, completely dwarfed and neutralized by opposing OTs), but perhaps RS SO DE Shane Simmons can offer a bit of help now a few weeks removed from his return from injury.

In the end, it's overwhelmingly likely that Michigan has their way methodically moving the ball tomorrow. I fully expect a couple of big plays on special teams – perhaps a successful fake from Michigan, a blocked kick by the Wolverines, a missed/shanked kick by Penn State, a big return from Peoples-Jones – to give Michigan a boost and early enough in the game that they serve to change the tide.

If McSorley was healthy, I'd have some more hopefulness that his legs could introduce enough variance into the game so as to give Nittany a real shot to compete. Without his legs, though, McSorley is a sitting duck with subpar or inexperienced receivers. We'll likely see RS JR QB Tommy Stevens for a few snaps in the first half before he relieves McSorley fully at some point in the second half after McSorley takes too much of a beating standing in the pocket.

One more prediction: Quinn Nordin will definitely rejoice making an easy kick with an over-the-top celebration. I still wish he made it to Penn State.

The game won't be all that exciting for Michigan fans as the Wolverines impose their will early and often with viewers quickly realizing that Nittany lacks the big-play offense that made the team so dangerous in 2016-17.

Michigan 31, Penn State 10

(Rob barfs at some point during the game)

Inside Penn State's Excruciating, Season-Killing Loss to Michigan State

September 23, 2018. It's not that long ago but it sure feels like ages ago.

Way back then, the Cubs had just wrapped up a series win over the White Sox that sent them into the final week of the season with a NL Central Division lead of 2 1/2 games with only a week to go. As a result of their lead and the fall-back plan of the Wild Card Game, the Cubs had a 96.1 percent chance to make it to to the Division Series according to Fangraphs.

The Bears had just completed a furious comeback in the Arizona desert to beat the Cardinals 16-14 at the end of a short week that featured a 1,500-mile flight, propelling the team into first place in the NFC North. Impressive. More importantly, the Bears defense looked dominant in the three games to date as the offense struggled to keep pace.

The Nittany Lions had just dropped 63 points for the second straight week, blasting Illinois on the road to move to 5-0 and a #9 ranking in the AP poll in advance of a showdown with rival Ohio State. The offense was overwhelming, scoring 55.5 points per game through the first four contests. The defense had also settled down after a fourth quarter catastrophe versus Appalachian State to stifle the admittedly modest attacks of Pitt, Kent State, and Illinois.

Things were looking up for me.

My sports life was overflowing with expectations for the first time in...well, actually, maybe for the first time ever. The Canucks and Bulls have been good at the same time before, but (i) I don't care about them as much as my summer/fall teams, and (ii) three is more than two. Having the Cubs, Bears, and Nittany Lions all playing deeply meaningful October games hadn't happened since 2008. 2008 felt a bit different: the Bears' ceiling wasn't quite so high with Kyle Orton manning the helm. The Nits had a wonderful regular season, falling only in the early evening hours at Kinnick (as so often happens) while the Cubs emphatically imploded via a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers.

Still, I found myself full of hope just a few weeks ago.

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Ha. What a chump that guy was.

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Since that glorious week to wrap up September, the Bears enjoyed a laugher over the overwhelmed Bucs. Otherwise, the wheels fell off in explosive ways. The Cubs continued to play fine baseball while the Brewers slayed all challengers, forcing a one-game playoff that Milwaukee won, knocking the Cubs into the Wild Card Game the next night where the season ended at the hands of the Rockies. Over their last three losses, the Cubs surrendered just seven runs. Of course, they scored just one run in each game. One win over those three games would've earned a full-fledged lottery ticket into October's chaos. Instead, the team finally gets a long winter.

Following their dismantling of the Bucs, the Bears made their way to Miami and received an early Christmas present when it was revealed that Ryan Tannehill would miss the game, forcing Brock Osweiler into the lineup. As seven-point favorites with a suffocating defense and an emerging offense, the Bears looked like one of the top bets in the league. Instead, the defense wilted in the Miami heat, allowing Osweiler yet another career day in which he threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns. Despite making two trips inside the five-yard-line in regulation that yielded zero points thanks to a Jordan Howard fumble and an absurd Mitchell Trubisky interception thrown directly to Miami safety T.J. McDonald, the Bears poured in four second-half touchdowns to seemingly seal the game before stumbling again and yielding a trip to overtime. In overtime, Akiem Hicks saved the game by forcing a Kenyan Drake fumble as Drake headed in for the game-winning score. Despite the craziness of the game, Matt Nagy pulled in the reins on the following possession, dialing up five straight rushes to settle for a 53-yard field goal attempt that Cody Parkey pushed to the right. The Dolphins won on a walk-off field goal as time expired.

Despite all of the above, no amount of sports-induced misery from the Cubs and Bears compares to the heartbreak wrought by Penn State football.

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As has been well documented, Penn State football has been on an epic run for just over 24 months. After losing four home games in 2014 -- adding a blowout to Northwestern (29-6) to three rivalry losses (Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan State) -- en route to a 7-6 record, Nittany followed with a more discouraging year in 2015 despite a repeat 7-6 record thanks to another Northwestern loss and blowouts at the hands of Ohio State, Michigan State, and mediocre Temple. 2016 began in much the same way with a tough loss to rival Pittsburgh and a shellacking at the hands of Michigan, 49-10.

There were some signs of hope during that time, namely the taking of eventual National Champion Ohio State to double-overtime in 2014, but nothing fully prepared Nittany Lion fans for what followed: nine straight wins in 2016, including handing the Buckeyes their only regular season loss, a Big Ten title, a thrilling Rose Bowl (loss), an excellent 2017 whose only blemishes were excruciating losses to great teams on the road: at the Horseshoe (39-38) and Spartan Stadium (27-24). Penn State won ever other game handily until a solid if less spectacular win over Washington in the Fiesta Bowl.

Entering 2018, there was reason to believe that another special season was on top. The raucous start to the year described above only fueled that optimism. There was also reason for concern: in close-and-late situations, James Franklin and his staff routinely turtled, reducing the offensive playbook to a run-until-desperate shell of its usual self. Franklin also regularly passed on opportunities to make a game-winning play, instead punting and hoping that the opponent's offense would be unable to break his back.

It happened against USC in 2016: up 49-35 in the fourth quarter, Penn State ran three times, punted, and watched USC score a touchdown. Nittany then ran, called a screen, ran again, and punted. After forcing a Trojans punt, Nittany ran on five straight plays before punting the ball back to USC. USC unsurprisingly tied the game with a minute and a half to play. 10 runs in 11 plays as the lead evaporated. The end result: USC 52, PSU 49.

It happened against Ohio State in 2017: near the end of the first half and facing fourth-and-4 at the OSU 36, Franklin ordered up...a punt? Then, midway through the fourth quarter with a 35-27 lead and facing first and goal at the Ohio State 7, Nittany called for three straight runs to set up a Tyler Davis field goal. After an Ohio State touchdown, Penn State ran three consecutive running plays before punting. When they got the ball back, they found themselves in an obvious passing situation with 1:45 to play. Three incompletions and a sack were all that was left. The end result: OSU 39, PSU 38.

2017 Michigan State was a different story: the teams were more or less evenly matched on a bizarre day in East Lansing that featured a three-hour rain delay in the middle of the game. The loss was devastating but understandable. MSU 27, PSU 24.

Sadly, it happened again against Ohio State in 2018. Near the end of the first half and facing fourth-and-1 at the OSU 49, Franklin ordered up...a punt? Stop me if you've heard this before. Then, up 26-21 halfway through the fourth quarter, Penn State took over and called four straight running plays. After a third down incompletion, Franklin inexplicably elected to punt from the Ohio State 37 despite a fourth-and-5 situation. The end result: OSU 27, PSU 26.

The truth here is painful: entering Saturday, Penn State had held the lead in the last five minutes of each of its prior four losses.

There's no way Franklin and his staff would turtle again in another tight-and-late situation...right?

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Michigan State entered the 2018 version of the MSU-PSU contest with an offense in tatters. Although the strong defense led by DT Raekwon Williams, the Panasiuk brothers (one DE, one DT), DE Kenney Willekes, MLB Joe Bachie, the Dowell brothers (one OLB, one S), S Khari Willis, and CB Justin Layne was largely healthy and ready for the contest in central Pennsylvania (save for CB Josiah Scott), the offense came in missing the following:

1. WR Cody White
2. WR Darrell Stewart
3. RB L.J. Scott
4. G   Kevin Jarvis
5. G   David Beedle
6. WR Jalen Nailor

The Spartans arrived in State College with half of their offense missing before we consider the imperfect health status of LT Cole Chewins and the slew of receivers who left Saturday's contest injured.

In contrast, Penn State was fully healthy. Truly. Among the players expected to participate in the 2018 rotations, only DE Shane Simmons and WR Justin Shorter have struggled with injuries and Simmons returned on Saturday to play meaningful snaps. It's incredible for a team to be so healthy at the season's midpoint.

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So what in the world happened? As is the case with most losses in team sports, it was far from just one thing. In an effort to help human brains digest the information to follow, I'll break the answers into five groups: bad plays, questionable officiating, poor defensive snap allocations, horrendous luck, and, the most important, a repeated lack of aggressiveness in the face of extreme aggressiveness from Mark Dantonio. Here goes:

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Bad Plays

Unsurprisingly in a game with more than 150 plays, Penn State had their fair share of bad ones. A few that stick out:

• With 12:16 left in Q2 and facing third-and-5 from a clean pocket, QB Trace McSorley missed a wide open TE Pat Freiermuth at the sticks, sailing the ball and forcing a punt.
• In the middle of the third quarter, Penn State kicker Jake Pinegar attempts to poke a 37-yard field goal. The ugly kick hits the right upright and narrowly misses.
• On Penn State's go-ahead field goal drive in the fourth quarter, McSorley extended a play and had a wide open DeAndre Thompkins in the end zone about 25 yards away. McSorley sailed the throw deep and to Thompkins's outside shoulder.
• As Nittany attempted to run out the clock, McSorley inexplicably ran out of bounds, preserving Sparty's final timeout and enabling them to work the middle of the field with far greater confidence on the game-winning drive.

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Questionable Officiating

The zebras most certainly didn't determine the outcome of the game on Saturday. Nittany had numerous opportunities to pound the nail into the Sparty coffin, failing to do so each time. However, the officials certainly didn't help the cause.

Michigan State was called for a block in the back on a punt return at the 2:28 mark of Q1. I thought that the referee should've had a conversation with the offending player instead of throwing the flag as the block occurred about 10 yards from the ball carrier as he was tackled. Oh well.

That's the list of Sparty flags from scrimmage. They were also whistled for two false starts.

In contrast, the flags on Nittany were plentiful. A summary with particularly iffy calls underlined:

• At the 6:40 mark of Q1, Nittany corner John Reid was flagged for a block in the back on a punt return. It looked to me as though Reid used his right hand to hit the Spartan gunner in the front of his shoulder, spinning him to the ground. Nevertheless, it was the kind of play that generally looks like a block in the back.
• On the same play, Nittany linebacker Jesse Luketa was called for holding at the line of scrimmage. No replay was available.
• On the final play of the first quarter, Michigan State ran a halfback pass where Connor Heyward beautifully floated a ball to Cam Chambers just shy of the end zone. Chambers caught the ball. However, Nittany corner Tariq Castro-Fields was called for holding on the play. The angle from the end zone shows that Chambers grabbed hold of Castro-Fields in his chest and pushed the corner away with a fully-extended arm just before the ball arrived. The official who called the hold was in the end zone.
• At the 13:28 mark of Q2, Nittany completed an impressive goal line stand, stuffing QB Brian Lewerke on a sneak after stopping La'Darius Jefferson twice (more on that below). Sparty C Matt Allen beat Nittany NT C.J. Thorpe on the play, putting Thorpe on his butt. After the play was over but when both players were still on the ground, Allen stuck his fingers through Thorpe's facemask and into his eyes. As the referee ran in to break up the players, Thorpe retaliated and landed a punch on Allen's face. Flagging the retaliation always happens and Thorpe clearly deserved the penalty. It's tougher to stomach when the official also sees the precipitating infraction and only flags one.
• Penn State G Connor McGovern was flagged for holding at the 12:57 mark of Q2. It was correct.
• Penn State was also called for lining up offside twice and for one false start (both in Q2).
• At the 4:12 mark in Q2, Nittany OLB Cam Brown was called for holding on a third-and-10 play where Lewerke rolled toward the sideline and threw the ball away. On the play, Brown and Sparty RB Weston Bridges were engaged with each other as Lewerke rolled: Brown's hands were wrapped around Bridges while Bridges's hands were wrapped around Brown. Bridges had the back of Brown's jersey in his hands when the flag was thrown.
• At the 7:00 mark of Q3, Nittany DT Robert Windsor was called for holding Allen. While Windsor did grab Allen's jersey as he ran by the center, color commentator James Laurinitis commented that the infraction flagged was for far less grabbing than occurs on every snap of every game. The call took away a third down stop in MSU territory. The Spartans instead tied the game two plays later. (editor's note: this was the toughest call of the game as it was the least egregious hold I've seen called in quite a while)
• At the 0:26 mark of Q3, Nittany RT Will Fries was called for holding on a McSorley rollout.
• On the same play, G Steven Gonzalez was also called for holding.

In the end, the officials flagged Nittany for nine post-snap penalties. Sparty was flagged once. Entering the game, Nittany had been flagged 30 times in five games whereas Sparty had been flagged 36 times in five games.

That's not all. The flags that are thrown impacted the game in a major way. So did a flag that wasn't thrown: on the screen pass opening MSU's game-winning drive, Nittany captain S Nick Scott beat Sparty redshirt freshman WR C.J. Hayes. Rather than let Scott bust up the MSU linemen or tackle Heyward, Hayes shoved Scott down from behind as Heyward was about three yards away. Heyward picked up 11 on the play. If (i) Scott busts up the play and keeps the clock moving, or (ii) the officials flag the block, who knows what happens on that final drive?

Again, the officials didn't determine the outcome of the game. Penn State did that in so many ways. At the same time, the zebras did not help matters by putting their thumbs on the scales.

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Poor Defensive Snap Allocations

We'll get to Franklin's game-losing conservatism in a bit. For now, the snap allocations need a look.

In particular, the coaches played redshirt junior DT Kevin Givens 76 defensive snaps. That's unacceptable. The astronomical count was the result of (i) Fred Hansard's injury, (ii) Antonio Shelton's first-half suspension thanks to a targeting call against Ohio State, and (iii) Thorpe's benching following his unsportsmanlike foul discussed above. Still, the coaches should have (i) given Shelton more second half snaps, and (ii) used the defensive end depth to shift Yetor Gross-Matos inside for a few more plays, keeping Givens a bit fresher. Instead, Givens played all of those defensive snaps, subbed for Thorpe on three special teams units, and found himself completely gassed at game's end when Nittany desperately needed an interior push to make Lewerke uncomfortable.

Scott and Amani Oruwariye both played 80+ snaps, but I'm less worried about leaner athletes carrying such a load. Brown and S Garrett Taylor both at 78 was also high given the presence of Micah Parsons (28) and Castro-Fields (34), but Brown is also on the leaner side for a linebacker and Taylor is a safety. Those were acceptable.

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Horrendous Luck

Lady luck wasn't just unkind to the Nittany Lions on Saturday: she was downright cruel. This entire section would be comical if the Nittany season wasn't crushed as a result. Instead, it's hard to write.

Let's start with one note: not all of the lucky plays in the game went against Penn State. In particular, the Lions enjoyed two lucky outcomes:

• Taylor's third quarter interception was the result of a pass from Lewerke to Chambers (slightly deflected by Koa Farmer) that hit Chambers's club and bounced to Taylor. That ricochet doesn't normally happen (obviously).
• At the 2:24 mark of Q3, Miles Sanders was ruled down but clearly fumbled and was injured on the play, giving the Spartans ample time to watch the replays in order to determine whether they should challenge. Inexplicably, Dantonio didn't talk with the refs or use a timeout. Not luck exactly (more like a rare boneheaded move by the opposing coach) but Nittany was fortunate in that moment.

That's about it from where I sit.

Now for the bad luck. Let's start with the fumbles. There were four genuine fumbles in the game. Lewerke had another wobbly option pitch that was ruled a fumble on the field but was actually an incomplete forward pass. The pitch went out of bounds and only cost Sparty a yard, so this didn't impact the game at all.

The other four though?

• On Nittany's opening drive, the Lions drove well into Sparty territory when McSorley stepped up into the pocket to deliver a downfield pass. Just as he was about to throw, he was hit on the arm, fumbled, and Sparty recovered, quashing the drive. At the time of the fumble, McSorley was surrounded by players from both teams, rendering this something close to a 50/50 ball.
• On the second down play before Thorpe's third down penalty at the goal line, Jefferson fumbled into a big pile of humanity. After about 20 seconds, the ball was awarded back to the Spartans. Who knows who actually had it initially? Regardless, this was a true 50/50 fumble that sent MSU's way.
• At the 4:02 mark of Q2, Sparty punt returner Laress Nelson muffed a punt as Nittany gunners arrived. Instead of bouncing away from him, the ball settled near Nelson's feet where he scooped it up. Muffed punts don't usually end so cleanly.
• At the 0:16 mark of Q3, RB Bridges fumbled on an interior run. The ball squirted back behind him where he dove on it. That's about as safe of fumbles on running plays get, yet it was nevertheless another ball on the turf.

Four fumbles, four recoveries for the Spartans. Ouch.

As tough as that fumble luck proved to be, it paled in comparison to the number of missed opportunities for interceptions. S&P+ credited PSU with an absurd 17 passes defended. In reviewing the video, five of Lewerke's unintercepted passes could've or even should've been picked off. Starting with the least likely pick to the easiest to intercept:

• At the 0:37 mark of Q2, Oruwariye jumped an out route to WR Felton Davis where Lewerke left the ball to the field side. Oruwariye got both hands on the ball but was laid out, rendering an actual catch difficult.
• On a third-and-10 play at 8:24 of Q4, Oruwariye again got a great jump on an out to Davis. He again laid out with the ball passing between his hands, deflected, prior to finding its way to the space between Davis's legs...where he trapped the ball and grabbed it with his hands just before he fell out of bounds for a first down. Stomach punch.
• At the 6:59 mark of Q2, Reid jumped a curl to Brandon Sowards. Lewerke's pass went into Reid's gut, but he couldn't hang on as Sowards made contact. It may have been a pick-six had Reid made the catch.
• At the 3:26 mark of Q4, Lewerke made arguably his worst throw of the game, leaving a seam pass at his own 40 well behind his target and instead throwing it directly to Taylor. Distressingly, the ball bounced off of Taylor's hands and fell incomplete.
• At the 0:58 mark of Q4, Oruwariye yet again jumped a curl to Davis. Lewerke put the ball in Oruwariye's gut but he couldn't hang on as Davis made contact. Obviously it would've sealed the game.

Combining the fumbles and passes defensed, S&P+ estimates that Nittany should've had 5.48 takeaways instead of one.

There are a handful of other brutally unlucky plays that don't fit neatly into a category, so here they are:

• Late in the fourth quarter, a strange play occurred on which Nittany DE Shaka Toney got around the edge and hit Lewerke as he threw. Lewerke released the ball around the 27 and it flew out of bounds around the 25, clearly backward by more than a yard, resulting in a fumble being ruled on the field. However, upon review, it was determined that Lewerke's arm was coming forward when Toney hit it. As a result, even though the ball itself went backward after contact, it was an incomplete pass. Based on the way the referees saw the play, that is the correct interpretation of the rules (I was in no position to appreciate this on Saturday night). However, having watched the play half a dozen times, I'm floored that the call was overturned. I encourage you go to the 142:52 of BTN replay of the game and see if Lewerke's arm is conclusively coming forward before Toney hits it. Having watched it on slow-motion just like the refs do, it looks like Toney hits Lewerke at the back of his windup, causing the ball to move in Lewerke's hand as his arm begins to move forward. At that point, it doesn't matter that Lewerke's arm moved forward in the future: all he did was propel a fumble. This call was crushing for Nittany, costing 10 yards and as many as 20 seconds. Again, I understand that, had the arm been moving forward, it would've been an incomplete pass despite the ball going backward (which is still weird). I just didn't see Lewerke's arm conclusively moving forward before contact from Toney, movement that is required under the rule.
• Facing a fourth-and-4 from MSU's 29 with 8:26 left in Q3, McSorley dropped back to see a chasm of running space in front of him. As he moved to scramble for the first down (and then some), his foot slipped and he fell to the ground. It was Sparty's only sack of the game.
• At the 10:00 mark of Q4 and facing second-and-goal from the MSU 5, Sanders took an inside handoff and saw plenty of green to get into the end zone...before he too slipped and fell at the 2. He would've needed to get through Willis to score, but with Willis between the 1 and the 2, Sanders almost certainly would've at least made the 1, likely leading to a much better chance at a touchdown than the ill-advised fade to Juwan Johnson that followed.
• On Michigan State's brilliant fake punt in the first half, Nittany's sole defender in the middle of the field, disappointing former five-star DB Lamont Wade, read the play reasonably well...before running into the official en route to Heyward, helping spring the back for a big gain. Heyward likely had the first down anyway, but the unfortunate collision likely yielded an extra 15-20 yards.
• On MSU's final drive, Davis and Nelson were injured on consecutive plays. Both injuries served as extra timeouts for the Spartans, though the clock wasn't running after the play on which Davis was shaken up. Davis missed one snap before returning. Nelson's injury saved Sparty's final timeout (which they didn't use). Nelson missed two snaps before returning. Both players appeared to be genuinely shaken up on their respective plays.
• One final unfortunate moment with regard to the clock. Nittany was the "beneficiary" of an unfriendly home clock operator on their penultimate play. When KJ Hamler streaked over the middle, leaped, caught McSorley's pass, and hit the deck, there were eight seconds on the clock. The whistle blew as the clock slipped from eight to seven while Nittany immediately called timeout. Incredibly, the operator ran the clock down to six. Had Nittany had seven seconds and a timeout, they were much more likely to try a 10-15 yard pass on the subsequent play, setting up a much more plausible Hail Mary attempt than the one they were stuck with in the end. They should've tried this anyway, but I suspect that the missing second played a role.

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A Repeated Lack of Aggressiveness in the Face of Extreme Aggressiveness from Dantonio
This section makes my stomach turn. I don't want to write/think/feel this over and over again as has become the norm in recent years.

This game was the perfect encapsulation of Dantonio's approach versus that of Franklin. Dantonio very clearly emptied his quiver of impact plays, throwing everything he could at the Lions in an effort to stave off a 3-3 record heading back home to face the vaunted Wolverines. A fake punt. A halfback pass. A fake field goal. Dantonio was hyper-aggressive. Dantonio knew that Sparty was the underdog, so he coached like it.

There were many impacts of this aggressiveness. First and foremost, he stole a possession with the fake punt, one that ultimately lead to Sparty's only score of the opening half. It's also possible that this aggressiveness put Nittany somewhat on their heels, helping fuel a handful of third down conversions where MSU converted by only a yard or so. This helped yield a massive advantage in snaps (89 to 64). It's also possible that Spartans LT Cole Chewins had just enough juice to dive and nip Taylor's heels on his interception return, preventing what could have been a commanding two-touchdown Nittany lead. Who knows?

In painful contrast, Franklin and offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne turtled, as they have on the occasions mentioned above. The ultra-conservative play calling ensured that Sparty would have another chance to tie or win the game at the end. Dantonio explicitly stated as much in his postgame presser, confirming that he was overwhelmingly confident that Penn State would sit on the ball. Penn State's offensive line is very good, but so is MSU's defensive line. Running in the interior is tough sledding. One well-placed pass would've ended the game. Instead, expected conservatism has killed the season for another hyper-efficient Nittany squad.

Did going for it on fourth-and-3 at the MSU 47 with 8:20 left in Q2 even cross Franklin's mind? Did he think about going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 2 in the fourth quarter? Did Franklin even remember about the ability to use Tommy Stevens in different formations to give the Spartans a different look? I doubt it. (To his credit, Franklin owned this by claiming that the extent of his patience with the run game was a mistake and likely took away opportunities for chunk plays.)

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Ranking the issues above, I'd say that they impacted the game in the following order from most impactful to least:

1. Horrendous Luck
2. A Repeated Lack of Aggressiveness in the Face of Extreme Aggressiveness from Dantonio
3. Bad Plays
4. Questionable Officiating
5. Poor Defensive Snap Allocations

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Closing Thoughts
The Michigan State game wasn't a total loss. Gross-Matos was superb, making a few TFLs of his own and clearing the way for Windsor's late sack by fighting through a double team. Sanders played his best game in blue and white. Taylor emerged. DE Shareef Miller and Brown both acquitted themselves well.

Michigan State didn't just win because of what Nittany did or didn't do. They also got superb production from their excellent defensive line, Lewerke made some plays, and Davis proved to be a superhero yet again.

Saturday's loss is far and away the worst since the Beat Down at Big House in September 2016. Nittany's losses since then (2016 USC, 2017 OSU, 2017 MSU, and 2018 OSU) all came on the road, save for OSU, and all came against excellent teams. 2018 Sparty is not an excellent team, at least not at this point in the season. They're a mess of a team with an injury report that is basically a "who's who" of their roster. They have a QB, a WR, a great defensive line, a solid back seven, and an elite coach. On pure talent, Nittany had a massive advantage, hence the -14.5 spread.

Instead of making that count, Nittany did the worst thing possible: they failed to learn from their mistakes. JFF went conservative and lost yet again, ending the possibility of achieving the program's top goals yet again. The Big Ten is fully out of reach. The CFP dream is dead. A NY6 game is on life support and now requires wins over Iowa, @ Michigan, and Wisconsin.

It didn't have to be this way.

JFF deserves a tremendous amount of credit for what he has done with the PSU program. He inherited a program still licking its wounds from crippling NCAA sanctions -- despite the excellent efforts of Bill O'Brien on Saturdays in sustaining the program through its self-inflicted darkest days -- and a cupboard that was comically bare. The 2010 class was excellent, ranked 13th nationally, but half of the impact players jumped ship when the sanctions came down instead of forming the veteran core of the 2014 and 2015 squads. Paterno's final recruiting class of 2011 ranked 31st. Of the 2012 recruiting class, which ranked 47th nationally, no four-star recruit made it through his career at PSU: WR Geno Lewis transferred to Oklahoma, DT Jamil Pollard never made it to campus, and DE Brent Wilkerson converted to TE and then was kicked off of the team for assaulting an acquaintance, then registered as a sex offender. Yikes. The 2013 class ranked 33rd. The 2014 fusion class between O'Brien and Franklin ranked 24th, but it did include a slew of key contributors to the successful PSU teams to follow.

The fully-Franklin classes have all been superb: 14th in 2015, 20th in 2016, 15th in 2017, and 6th in 2018. The 2019 class currently ranks 13th and will likely end up somewhere in the mid-to-late-teens when it wraps up, but even this is misleading: the class will be a bit smaller, so ranking so highly without quantity means that the quality of the prospects is fantastic.

Recruiting is good but it's far from the be-all-and-end-all in the college football world. Unlike with Ron Zook, Brady Hoke, and the like, recruiting success has been converted to wins for Franklin. JFF meandered through a couple of mediocre years while he got his players and his system in place, then he exploded onto the national scene in October 2016. Since then, Nittany has either won or come extraordinarily close to winning every game. Five losses by 12 total points, all of them in the last 2:03, and three of them in the final 20 seconds. That's quite the impressive 29-game stretch.

He has generally acquitted himself well against top competition from 2016 onward: after getting obliterated by 2016 Michigan in a game where Nittany lacked scholarship linebackers, they beat 2016 OSU, 2016 Wisconsin, and 2017 Washington, and lost narrowly to 2016 USC, 2017 OSU, 2017 MSU, and OSU 2018. There's one gnarly loss in there now: 2018 MSU. Outside of this Saturday, there are also exclusively wins against good-but-not-great teams like 2016 Minnesota, 2016 Iowa,  2017 Iowa (@ Kinnick @ night), 2017 Northwestern, 2017 Michigan, and 2018 Appalachian State. If we go back the beginning of 2016 before the meltdown at Michigan in 2016, the win over 2016 Temple looks awfully nice, too, while the loss at Pitt looks fine considering Pitt's subsequent win @ Clemson, the only blemish for the Tigers in the championship season.

Franklin has done a great job establishing Penn State as a contending program annually. That should never be taken for granted. However, in order to take the next step, he's going to have to change his approach in the biggest games. Aggressiveness will be required to mitigate the impact of bad luck against the best teams. Franklin should start doing that now so as to avoid future losses in the mold of Saturday's crushing setback.