Bears Thoughts in Advance of Day Two of the 2023 NFL Draft

I'm pleased with what the Bears did in the first round. But as with anything in life, there's more to it than that. So here goes:

1. Admittedly, I hoped that the Bears would acquire significantly more draft capital if they traded down from #9, but to be fair, I didn't envision the trade only sliding back one spot. An extra 2024 4th from a Super Bowl contender is technically something.
2. Not drafting Jalen Carter makes plenty of sense at this point. I'm sure that we'll hear in the coming years that the Bears took Carter off of their board entirely, hence the smokescreens in recent days that Carter would be the pick at #9 if he made it.
3. I'm happy that Peter Skoronski wasn't the pick. He was a great college player, but the value proposition for a G simply isn't there in the top-10.
4. Darnell Wright is a premium athlete at a premium spot that fills a massive need. That's good. It's not a perfect outcome, but it's very good.
5. Carter-Wright-Skoronski will be inextricably linked when fans evaluate this Bears draft class. Carter was the one chance for a plug-and-play 3 tech DT. With him off to Philly, the Bears defense has a low ceiling in 2023. Skoronski was the can't miss local kid. But the Bears went with Wright, eschewing those two. We'll see how it looks when they approach free agency near the end of the decade.

With the first round all wrapped up, I ran a Day Two mock draft for the Bears today. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness.

To say that this represents a best-case scenario understates just how ideal this outcome would be.

Here goes:

Bears trade #53 to Tampa Bay for #81, #82, and #196
All of my favorite DEs and my top two Cs were gone, so...trade down!

#61: Bears select Auburn DE Derick Hall
Hall isn't a prototype, but he possesses plenty of the necessary characteristics to be a plus starter in the future and a day one contributor. That'll work.

Bears trade #64 to Houston for #65, #259, and a 2024 5th

#65: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. A starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done. I think that Dexter can be at least a serviceable 3 tech to start his career.

#81: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton
There's no way Benton will last this long...but if he does, wow! I had a very difficult time choosing between Dexter and Benton, so getting both really changes the feel of this class.

#82: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
LaPorta could be a mid-2nd or he could last until the end of day two. This would be a wonderful spot for the Bears to add my favorite TE.

#103: Bears select Ohio State DE Zach Harrison
Harrison never emerged as the star many expected him to be at Ohio State, but there's plenty to work with here.

#133: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#136: Bears select Purdue CB Corey Trice Jr.
I like Trice and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. Extreme length plays well in this defense.

#148: Bears select Purdue WR Charlie Jones
This is a good spot for a receiver given the construction of the Bears roster. Jones is my favorite target. He's incredibly quick, plenty fast, and was insanely productive despite his slight frame. He's a security blanket in the making.

#196: Bears select Penn State C Juice Scruggs
Incredible value here. Scruggs and Doug Kramer might leave the Bears a little light at C, but if the club thinks he can start, this would be idyllic timing.

#218: Bears select Duke LB Shaka Heyward
Heyward should be able to make the roster and contribute on special teams. That's the right target here.

#258: Bears select Penn State TE Brenton Strange
Strange is extremely polarizing in draft circles. I loved watching him at Penn State, but never thought he had much of an NFL future. But at 258? Sure!

#259: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

If the Bears completed the simulated draft above, they'd enter 2023 with the following roster, assuming cuts of Jones, Whitehair, and Lucas Patrick:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Chase Brown, Travis Homer
FB: Khari Blasingame
WR: DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Charlie Jones, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Sam LaPorta, Brenton Strange
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Alex Leatherwood
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Larry Borom
C: Juice Scruggs, Doug Kramer

DE: DeMarcus Walker, Derick Hall, Zach Harrison, Rasheem Green, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson
DT: Gervon Dexter, Keeanu Benton, Andrew Billings, Donovan Jeter
ILB: Tremaine Edmunds
OLB: T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Dylan Cole, Shaka Heyward
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Corey Trice Jr., Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales 

Final Chicago Bears Pre-Draft Thoughts and First Round Prediction

This draft will always be remembered as the one where the Bears -- both current and past -- tanked their way to the #1 overall pick (thanks Lovie!)...which GM Ryan Poles subsequently dealt in a masterful deal for a massive haul of picks and new #1 WR D.J. Moore. How Poles uses the picks will determine the future of the franchise even more than how well Moore meshes with QB Justin Fields.

With the draft set to kick off in a few hours, here are my final thoughts about the Bears' approach this weekend along with one final mock draft.

1. Missing out on a 3 technique DT in free agency really stings. Georgia DT Jalen Carter is the only plug-and-play option at that spot in this draft. His off-the-field concerns are significant; at this point, I suspect that he's either atop the Bears' draft board or off of it entirely. But on the field, he's head-and-shoulders ahead of my other favorite possibilities in Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore (undersized, never played DT), Pitt's Calijah Kancey (undersized, very short arms), and Bowling Green's Karl Brooks (poor competition, played DE, very raw). Signing Javon Hargrave or Dre'Mont Jones would have come with their own risks, but doing so would've opened the door for Poles to wheel and deal more freely tonight. If Carter is on the board at #9, I suspect that he's the pick without another trade.
2. Missing out on RT in free agency is just as perplexing. Not paying Mike McGlinchy at a market-setting rate? Totally fine. Not grabbing someone like Kaleb McGary on a modest, short-term deal? Baffling. Unless Poles really loves Larry Borom or Alex Leatherwood -- and that's doubtful -- he needs to find a starting OT this weekend. Desperation oftentimes yields bad results. I don't like the OT options in this draft after the top three of Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia's Broderick Jones, and Tennessee's Darnell Wright. Syracuse's Matthew Bergeron and BYU's Blake Freeland would be fine, projectable options, but neither inspires confidence starting in Week One.
3. I really like the C position in this draft and that's especially true with Wisconsin's Joe Tippmann, a huge, athletic pivot. I like Minnesota's John Michael Schmitz, though I much prefer Tippmann given the age gap between them. If either is there at #53, they'll get strong consideration. There should be good depth options in the third round (Ohio State's Luke Wypler) and later (Penn State's Juice Scruggs).
4. There's salary cap efficiency with drafting new starters at DT and C. Cutting Justin Jones saves $4.9M against the cap and Cody Whitehair's exodus would save $5.8M. The Bears don't need this cap space, but being efficient with the cap is the way that all quality organizations operate. If Jones is the starting 3 tech, this defense will struggle again despite the strength of its back seven.
5. I've long felt that the Bears need to add two starting DEs, but I no longer think that's the case. In fact, drafting only one DE could be sufficient. Poles added depth nicely adding DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green to Trevis Gipson and Dominque Robinson. Adding two DEs would be fine with Green and Gipson both heading to free agency, but adding only one DE would be fine.
6. I really like the depth of this draft at CB, but I don't want to see the Bears draft one of the top CBs in the first round. Oregon's Christian Gonzalez and Illinois' Devon Witherspoon are good prospects -- especially Gonzalez -- but the Eberflus defense doesn't prioritze CB play. They need long CBs who don't necessarily need top-end speed. There are options on that front. My favorite? Miami's Tyrique Stevenson.
7. There are a dozen quality RBs in this draft. There's absolutely no reason to take one before Saturday. I like Chase Brown (Illinois), Tyjae Spears (Tulane), Israel Abanikanda (Pitt - a fast riser in my eyes), Tank Bigsby (Auburn), and Devon Achane (Texas A&M). Do NOT draft Bijan Robinson. If the Bears don't draft a RB at all, that's fine! Or Tulsa's Deneric Prince at the end of the 7th round? Great!
8. The TE spot is unbelievably deep. I figure that Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) and Dalton Kincaid (Utah) both go in the first round. The second round options -- Georgia's Darnell Washington, Oregon State's Luke Musgrave, and Iowa's Sam LaPorta -- are incredibly attractive, too. If one is available at 61/64, I'd love to see him join the Bears. Later options like Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State), Luke Schoonmaker (Michigan), Zack Kuntz (Old Dominion), and Brenton Strange (Penn State) are also very attractive. In particular, if Schoonmaker is available in the fourth or fifth round, he'd be a great pick. I really want one of these TEs on the club.
9. Draft Michigan K Jake Moody. Cut Cairo Santos. Santos is fine, but it's time for the Bears to grab a kicker with a big leg. That's Moody. Hopefully in the seventh.

Here's my final, draft day mock draft for the Bears. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness. For example, today's first mock featured three excellent trades for the Bears:

    Trade #1: Bears trade #9 to Tennessee for #11 and #72
    Trade #2: Bears trade #11 to New England for #14 and 2024 2nd
    Trade #3: Bears trade #14 and #72 to Washington for #16 and #47

But it's horribly unrealistic to trade down three times to get from #9 to #16. So that doesn't work.

Here goes:

Bears trade #9 to New York Jets for #15 and #43

#15: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
I was tempted to trade down again with the Giants, sending #15 and #258 to New York for #25 and #57. But no. The desperate need at OT rears its head. And Wright is an ideal fit, so I kept the pick and made it.

#43: Bears select Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey
Kancey is a polarizing prospect. He's very small for a college DT, so he's positively miniscule for an NFL DT. His arms are multiple inches shorter than his nearest comp. But he's unbelievably quick and fast with a power body despite his stature. If he was two inches taller and his arms were two inches longer, he'd be a top-10 pick. At #43, it's worth the risk if he makes it this far.

#53: Bears select Wisconsin C Joe Tippmann
I'm a huge fan of Tippmann and this is a good spot for him. Unfortunately, the best pass rushing DEs were already gone by this point. Gulp.

#61: Bears select USC DE Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu is my least favorite of the top-100 edge rushers. I don't think he'll be quick enough to succeed as a pass rusher in the NFL. But he was quick enough for a 290-pounder last year and showed up at the Combine at 266. He'd be an intriguing option that should help in run defense. That's enough for me.

#64: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. Another starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done.

#103: Bears select Mississippi WR Jonathan Mingo
I did not like this spot in the draft. I'm not a bing Mingo fan, but this is a solid spot for him. I'm surprised that Dante Pettis snagged $152,500 guaranteed from the Bears, but Mingo costs him his roster spot.

#133: Bears select Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
An easy call. Finally. I love Schoonmaker as a prospect despite his alma mater. He's a perfect addition to the TE room from a pro offense with plenty of athleticism and blocking skill.

#136: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#168: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss
I like Moss a ton and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. (I don't like that he ruined the Penn State-Iowa game for me in 2021.)

#218: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
Brooks played DE in the MAC, so he'd have a way to go before becomming a useful NFL DT. But he's a perfect ball of clay and in this scenario, he'd fit in wonderfully behind Kancey, Dexter, and Andrew Billings as a developmental piece.

#258: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

Chicago Bears Mock Draft - Two Weeks Out

I did a boatload of mock drafts around the time of free agency, but it's been a while. Since then, PFF has done away with their superb draft simulator, so tonight's iteration was prepared using NFL Mock Draft Database.

(Note: proposed trades on NMDD are all over the place. Some offers are laughably low; some are laughably high. I rejected all offers that seemed out of whack.)

Following free agency, the Bears have massive needs on the defensive front along with needs for additional talent on the offensive line, at tight end, and running back. So, without further adieu, here's a look at a pretty tasty draft scenario.

Bears trade #9 to Houston for #12 and #65
After picking a DE at #2, Houston moves up a few spots to jump Tennessee to nab Florida QB Anthony Richardson. The Bears pick up another starter in the swap. Easy call.

Bears trade #12 and a 2024 4th to New York Giants for #25, #57, and a 2024 2nd
Unlike the first trade, this one is much tougher to swallow. With Paris Johnson Jr. still on the board, the Bears have a plug-and-play cornerstone tackle available. But the value here is too good to pass up, so the Bears facilitate the Giants moving up for Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

#25: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
Nice! This would be a stellar outcome for the Bears. Pick up a handful of additional tasty picks and still come away with a day one starter at RT.

#53: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
I remain a huge fan of LaPorta. When there's a quality Iowa TE available, take him, especially if you have a young QB in need of weapons.

#57: Bears select Auburn DE Derick Hall
Hall is my least favorite of the DEs expected to be taken in the 1st or 2nd rounds, but in this mock, there was a huge run on DEs in the mid-2nd. The Bears need a starter at DE, so Hall fits the bill.

#61: Bears select Wisconsin C Joe Tippmann
While many Bears fans lust after Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz, nabbing either Tippmann or Schmitz would be a tremendous step. This greases the skids on a Cody Whitehair release and saves $8M+ against the cap.

Bears trade #64 to Denver for #67 and #108
That's too much value for the Broncos to send. Obviously the Bears have to take such a deal.

#65: Bears select Miami CB Tyrique Stevenson
I'm a huge fan of Stevenson. He's got enough athleticism to play on the outside, kicking Kyler Gordon to the plot on a permanent basis.

Bears trade #67 and #148 to Indianapolis for #79, #106, and a 2024 4th
A trade that acknowledges that the Bears don't see great value in this spot in the draft after such a big run in the late 2nd/early 3rd while bringing up #148 to a much more useful spot.

#79: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
In a draft lacking impact three technique options, I remain obssessed with Brooks. He might be the player that I most want the Bears to draft, whether at #50 or #150. I don't think he'll last that long given his athletic profile.

#103: Bears select Army DE Andre Carter II
Carter looked like a fringe 1st before the Combine. Now? This might be a little high for him. He has incredible quickness and an amazing frame, but he's mostly a ball of clay at this point.

#106: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears
Spears exploded onto the scene during Tulane's magical 2022 season. He'd offer speed and explosiveness with pass catching skills. This is a good spot for him.

#108: Bears select Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry
Perry is huge, productive, and plenty athletic. His hands have been inconsistent, but he has the profile of a good starter. This is great value for him.

#133: Bears select Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
Schoonmaker is one of the big winners of the Combine. His athletic profile proved much more impressive than expected.

#136: Bears select Texas OLB DeMarvion Overshown
Overshown is similar to Carter in that he's remarkably fast with a good frame, but he's not strong enough to play in the NFL right now.

#218: Bears select Coastal Carolina DT Jerrod Clark
The Bears basically must take a flyer at DT at this point in the draft. Clark isn't going to wow anyone, but he should be a playable option given his advanced age and physical profile.

#258: Bears select Pittsburgh OT Carter Warren
This pick was going to be Warren, Eastern Michigan DE Jose Ramirez, who I also adore, or Michigan K Jake Moody. Moody is definitely getting drafted and possibly a round or two earlier. I ultimately settled on Warren, a draftable body with a 2022 injury that will hurt his stock.

The improved depth from this draft has me on cloud nine. This roster is so much better. Here's the depth chart:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Tyjae Spears, Travis Homer
FB: Khari Blasingame
WR: DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, A.T. Perry, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, Robert Tonyan, Luke Schoonmaker
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Larry Borom, Carter Warren
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Alex Leatherwood
C: Joe Tippmann, Doug Kramer

DE: DeMarcus Walker, Derick Hall, Andre Carter II, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson, Rasheem Green
DT: Justin Jones, Andrew Billings, Karl Brooks, Jerrod Clark
ILB: Tremaine Edmunds
OLB: T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, DeMarvion Overshown, Dylan Cole
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

Is this 53-man roster a winner? Probably not in a big way in 2023. But it lays the foundation for (i) a winning team, and (ii) a quality evaluation of Justin Fields. My goodness, that sounds so much better than 2022.

A Bears Blockbuster and Final Free Agency Preview

It's late, so let's get right to it. Bears GM Ryan Poles spent weeks indicating that any team wanting to obtain the #1 overall pick in April's draft well in advance of draft day would have to pay a premium to do so. On Friday afternoon, Poles made good on his word. The haul:

• #9 overall
• #61 overall
• 2024 1st
• 2025 2nd
• WR D.J. Moore

I considered so many trade proposals along the way, many of them with the Panthers. Yet never once did I consider that any team trading for #1 overall would trade away their top receiver, leaving their new prized quarterback to fend for himself without the help of a top receiving option. I was wrong.

Most commentators adore the return that Poles snared for this pick. I'm with them, ultimately deciding that this was a spectacular haul for a few reasons.

But first, the "negatives." That word is in quotes because these aren't true negatives, rather unpleasant components with the trade. First, I don't like that Poles didn't get Carolina's own 2nd round pick in 2023 (#39), instead only getting San Francisco's selection (#61). Second, I expected this trade to feature more picks coming back to the Bears, albeit in the form of a couple of 3rds or 4ths to go along with the more premium picks. Third, Poles made the trade when I was packing up for a weekend away. Not his fault -- just bad timing for me!

Instead, Poles went with fewer, more premium assets. Objectively, I think he made a great choice. So what all did I like about this deal?

Most importantly, Poles extracted the desired premium for making an early trade. Obviously he got Carolina's 1sts in 2023 and 2024; outside of dealing with Houston, that was going to be a given. The other parts of the deal were what was at stake. There's a decent argument to be made that getting #9, #61, a 2024 1st, and a 2025 2nd would've been a fair composite deal. Not a barnburner but fair. But that's not where we are.

Instead, arguably the single most valuable asset that Poles received in the deal is Moore. Is Moore a bonafide #1? I'm not 100% certain, but I think so. The fact that he's (i) in that category, (ii) signed to a significantly under-market deal (three years, $52M remaining), and (iii) in his prime when turning 26 this season makes him a dynamite addition. This year's free agent crop of receivers is dreadful. And while the draft features some intriguing options, none of the possible draftees are in their prime with a trio of 1,100-yard seasons in the NFL under their belt. Moore enables the Bears to more fully evaluate QB Justin Fields, to spend some desperately needed cash (more on that in a moment), and to slot fellow WRs Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool into preferred roles as complementery pieces.

Some folks on Bears Twitter complained that Poles only got one future 1st back in the deal, lamenting that Carolina's 2025 pick didn't come to Chicago. To me, that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of Moore's value and what it would take to acquire a player of his ilk on its own. Simply put, if a team offered a single 2025 1st for D.J. Moore, they wouldn't be in the ballpark. The price for Moore started with a 2023 1st plus additional compensation. This isn't merely hypothetical; reporting indicates that the Packers offered their 1st for Moore during the season and were turned down. So, if Moore is worth north of a 2023 1st, replacing a 2025 1st with Moore would make this deal a massive win. More likely, if a 2025 1st was going to be the centerpiece of a Moore deal, I suspect it would've come along with a 2023 2nd.

So, had the haul for #1 overall instead been the following, would Bears fans have rejoiced?

• #9 overall
• #40 overall
• #61 overall
• 2024 1st
• 2025 1st
• 2025 2nd

Duh. Of course. That kind of haul likely would've been seen as too much. But that's the kind of value that Poles just got, plus he gets to give his third-year quarterback a chance to make the leap as a passer that I believe he'll make. Truly incredible stuff.

This may be the best trade that the Bears have made in my lifetime. And all this because of Lovie Smith. What a hero!

Actually, one more though on the luck that the Bears enjoyed. While there's no true generational QB like Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams at the top of this draft, there are enough franchise-caliber QBs that the Bears could swing this deal. Had the Bears instead had the #1 pick in last year's draft, would there have been any market for this pick? There were some quality players at the top of last year's draft like Aidan Hutchinson, Sauce Gardner, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, but no team traded up to grab a top-10 player with the first trade-up being New Orleans jumping to #11 to draft Chris Olave.

This trade dictates what the 2020s will be for the Bears, but the likelihood of the stars aligning as they did for this to happen? Astronomical.

Building the Bears: 2023 Mock Offseason (One Week from Free Agency)

As was the case a week ago, since my initial post on this topic, I've spent a tremendous amount of time digging through this free agent class and the draft class to follow. Most of my thoughts on the Bears' top needs still track well with the initial post linked above, but there are a couple of thoughts that have emerged since that time. With the Combine now in the rearview mirror and with an unfortunate injury to USC G Andrew Vorhees, here's where things stand:

1. Despite the depth in the DE draft class and lack of impact DEs available in free agency, the Bears need to find at least one rotation DE in free agency.
2. Finding at least one and likely two starters at DT in free agency is even more important. The draft class features three attractive 3 technique DTs: Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, and Karl Brooks. Unfortunately, Calijah Kancey and Moro Ojomo both likely lack the size that Matt Eberflus covets. The defense doesn't work without a 3 technique, so signing one -- and then hopefully drafting another -- is the only prudent path ahead.
3. The TE class is quite similar to the DT class. Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, and Darnell Washington are all attractive prospects, but they all figure to come off the board in the first two rounds and only Tucker Kraft looks attractive in the 3rd/4th/5th range, likely going in the 3rd. The Bears need another starting-caliber TE to complement Cole Kmet. As such, grabbing a free agent TE who can eat some snaps is necessary.
4. RT should be the easiest spot to address in free agency. There are a trio of quality options available for cash who are the right age. Looking at you, Mike McGlinchy, Kaleb McGary, and Jawaan Taylor.
5. The interior OL spots are trickier. Cody Whitehair and Lucas Patrick should both be cut due to cap and production issues. The draft has some quality options with centers Luke Wypler, Joe Tippmann, and John Michael Schmitz standing out as options in Round 2, and I think that Tippmann and Schmitz could play guard for a year or two. Guards are trickier. The Bears like linemen who can move and some of the best guard targets, like O'Cyrus Torrence, look too big to move well in Chicago's outside-zone scheme. Steve Avila might have the quickness to make it work, and I do like his experience at both C and LG while at TCU. I maintain that bringing in a new starting center is the most important move that the club can make, but I can now see a scenario where they keep Lucas Patrick on the roster through the draft, signing a RT and LG while waiting to see if a new C emerges on draft weekend.
6. The Bears need new blood at LB. While at least one draftee will likely come aboard, they should sign a starting-capable body, even if only to a modest deal.

With the above in mind, here's my free agency track to set up the club for the draft:

1. Sign a 3 technique DT: Javon Hargrave, Dre'mont Jones, or Sheldon Rankins. Jones is younger (26 v. 30), Hargrave is better. Hargrave likely commands $20M per year, but he's worth it. For what is effectively a two-year deal, Hargrave is the centerpiece of the Bears' free agency push on a 3-year, $60M deal. If it's Rankins instead, the need to draft a 3 tech remains at the top of the list.
2. Sign RT Mike McGlinchy or RT Kaleb McGary. McGlinchy has the preferred pedigree and longer history of solid production, but McGary has showed a higher ceiling after a star turn in 2022. I'm leaning McGary now. Ah! Contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $60M.
3. Sign DE Marcus Davenport. Davenport's market could go numerous directions, but I think there's a decent chance he could take a one-year deal coming off of a disastrous platform year. If he signs for something like $12M on a one-year pact, it better be with the Bears. If he commands $100M over five years, well, that's the cost of doing business. The Bears need a huge infusion of talent up front and Davenport is the only DE with a top-level ceiling. If Davenport doesn't sign, then sign a second-tier DE; could be a young guy like Arden Key, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Samson Ebukam, or Charles Omenihu, or an older option like Trey Flowers, Justin Houston, or Melvin Ingram. I'm partial here to Okoronkwo and Omenihu Houston as my hope is that the Bears find their top DE starter in the draft (Omenihu has a domestic violence arrest hanging over his head). I'm not interested in former Chief Frank Clark given his own multiple felony arrests.
4. Sign a one technique DT like Dalvin Tomlinson or A'Shawn Robinson (and then cut Justin Jones). Jones is a 3 tech, but I can see the Bears holding onto him until the other starting DT gig has been filled. Ideally with Tomlinson for something like $27M over three years. If it's Robinson, a bit less, like $15M over two years.
5. Sign a top C like Ethan Pocic, Garrett Bradbury, Connor McGovern, or Bradley Bozeman. Although I like the draft options at center, it's imperative that the Bears have a quality starting C in September, so here's the hope that they grab one of these guys on a deal paying $30M over three years. I've been partial to Pocic for a while, but I'm leaning toward Bradbury now. He's similar to McGary as a one-year wonder, but he's got the pedigree and now the production to match. If a center doesn't work out, sign a LG to a modest deal; consider Nate Davis and Ben Powers. Spending big here on Isaac Seumalo would be lovely, but I think that the Bears will allocate their bigger dollars above. This could get complicated quickly if the guard market takes off, pushing the Bears toward the numerous quality centers in free agency. If Davis can be had for something like $24M over three years, great.
6. Sign a starting LB: either an older LB on a short-term deal like Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, or Eric Kendricks...or, better yet, splurge for a young star in the middle of the defense. Both Wagner and David are elite; both are also old. The Bears could use an infusion of skill and leadership alongside Jack Sanborn. If that comes in a productive package without long-term dollars, great! Younger studs like Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, or even a more modest acquisition like Bobby Okereke or Germaine Pratt, would also be great. I preferred Edmunds to Roquan Smith in 2018, so here's an opportunity to right that wrong on a big deal with the young 'backer made more palatable given the expected hot market for Okereke: $64M over four years gets Edmunds.
7. Sign a mediocre veteran TE to a short-term deal, like Austin Hooper or Hayden Hurst. These two are interchangeable in my mind. I'd love to see Mike Gesicki with the Bears and he's coming off of a dreadful year that should depress his market value, but Gesicki (i) can't block, and (ii) will still likely command too much money. I think Hooper ends up around $14M over two years...but this is where the Bears save money, instead providing Naperville native Cameron Brate with a soft landing to end his career on a one-year, $3M deal.

If the above comes together, here's the haul:

1. DT Hargrave: $20M AAV
2. LB Edmunds: $16M AAV
3. RT McGary: $15M AAV
4. DE Davenport: $12M AAV
5. C   Bradbury: $10M AAV
6. DT Tomlinson: $9M AAV
7. TE Brate: $3M AAV

Many of the above deals are designed to bridge the gap for the next year or two while this year's and next year's draft classes round into form. Davenport and Brate would be fully off the books by 2024, and Hargrave and Tomlinson would likely have minimal guarantees in 2025, if any. These deals allocate $85M for AAV purposes -- an allocation that will certainly be lower on the 2023 cap -- but the Bears should still have north of $100M of cap space once additional cuts are made anyway (Whitehair, Jones, Patrick, Santos, etc.), so there's plenty of space, even leaving a bit of room for some extensions for the likes of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. Assume that Deandre Houston-Carson, Khari Blasingame, and Patrick Scales come back, too.

With free agency in the books, let's get to that draft! As always, this is completed doing an actual mock draft with PFF's mock draft simulator.

I was formerly excited by the idea of dealing with Indianapolis so that the Bears could still presumably come away with DE Will Anderson or DT Jalen Carter, but Carter's legal issues have pushed me toward two ideal possible outcomes, both of which involve the Bears tumbling down the draft. The #4 pick just isn't as attractive as it used to be.

1. One big trade down to #9 (Carolina), #11 (Tennessee), or even #16 (Washington).
2. A flip with Houston for some modest picks, then a traditional auction for #2 among all of the other QB-needy teams.

The timing complicates matters. A single trade can be accomplished at basically any time, though likely in March. This locks in a draft haul and removes the possibility of something squirrely happening on draft weekend. A double-trade likely means a trade around the start of the new league year on March 15 followed by another deal closer to draft day...unless it's a trade from #1 to #2, then another deal further down the board. That's my preferred methodology at this point. So here goes:

Bears trade #1 to Houston for #2, #65, #73, and a 2024 3rd

I don't think that the Bears can touch a 1st -- this year or later -- in a one-spot move, but it's possible that Houston's #33 overall selection could be on the table. Instead, we track the Trubisky deal with a modest premium reflecting the fact that Houston gets their pick of the litter.

Bears trade #2 and #134 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, a 2024 1st, and a 2025 1st

This is a good trade, but it's not the dream trade. It doesn't add oodles of draft capital. But in the end, the Bears net two 1sts, a 2nd, and three 3rds for the drop from #1 to #9, plus a nice jump from the late 4th to the late 3rd this year.

There will be an incredible amount of interest in #9 overall with all of the WRs and all of the OTs still on the board. As a result, making another deal might actually prove tough. Thus...

#9: Bears select Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

It's time to fill out the receiving corps to complete the evaluation of Justin Fields. Smith-Njigba could be a #1. Passing on Paris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski, and Myles Murphy here was tough.

Bears trade #39 to Seattle for #51 and #83

Reminds me of when the Bears traded down and still got Cody Whitehair back in 2016. That's 83rd pick is likely another starter.

#51: Bears select Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah

A day one starter. (Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz went at #50)

#54: Bears select TCU LG Steve Avila

Avila had a mediocre Combine, which could leave him on the board later than expected. I suspect that the Bears would be happy to grab an interior lineman with position flexibility here.

#64: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton

I thought about Andre Carter II here -- I'm still intrigued by him as a prospect -- but he had a truly brutal Combine. His athleticism scores lagged and his 11 reps on the bench are a deal breaker.

Instead, without an appropriate 3 tech on the board, I opted for an emerging 1 tech in Benton.

Bears trade #65 to New York Jets for #74 and #112

The Jets came up for Stanford QB Tanner McKee, enabling the Bears to add a bit more to the arsenal of picks.

#73: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta

In the middle of the 3rd, if LaPorta is on the board, I desperately want the Bears to find a way to get their hands on him.

#74: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears

This is earlier than I wanted to go for Spears, but I do like him a bit better than Achane and love grabbing his explosion for the offense.

Bears trade #83 to San Francisco for #101 and 2024 3rd

This was a strange spot in the draft. I liked plenty of players but didn't love any. So, I punted the choice to next year's 3rd round, grabbing a compensatory pick 18 spots later for doing so. I like this kind of trade.

#93: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks

I love Brooks. He's a giant ball of clay who projects as a 3 technique, though maybe not for a couple of years. If he hits, hooray! In the meantime, he can play some on the outside, too, while he develops.

#101: Bears select Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry

I didn't expect to take another wideout, but Perry was too enticing to pass up here. He should be a true X as he develops, giving him some time behind Chase Claypool.

#103: Bears select Missouri DE Isaiah McGuire

McGuire looks good. He doesn't look great. I'm not sure how projectable he is, but after taking Dominique Robinson last year, perhaps a more polished, middle-of-the-road rotational DE isn't such a bad thing.

#112: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss

I really like Moss. He was productive at Iowa and has the frame to play in the Eberflus defense. Then, he tested well enough at the Combine to project as a starter in the not-too-distant future given his immense playing experience in college.

#137: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown

Brown followed a rough Senior Bowl with a stellar Combine. That should have him in approximately this neighborhood of the draft, and the Bears would surely love to grab him here.

#150: Bears select Louisville LB Yasir Abdullah

After playing a stand-up hybrid role at Louisville, the Bears can try to groom Abdullah into a more traditional off-ball role, something that should work given his overall athletic profile.

#220: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody

A big leg who is better than Cairo Santos.

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian

RB: Khalil Herbert, Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, Trestan Ebner

FB: Khari Blasingame

WR: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, A.T. Perry

TE: Cole Kmet, Cameron Brate, Sam LaPorta, ___________

OT: Braxton Jones, Kaleb McGary, Alex Leatherwood, Larry Borom

G: Teven Jenkins, Steve Avila

C: Garrett Bradbury, Doug Kramer

DE: Marcus Davenport, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Isaiah McGuire, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson

DT: Javon Hargrave, Dalvin Tomlinson, Keeanu Benton, Karl Brooks, _____________

LB: Tremaine Edmunds, Jack Sanborn, Yasir Abdullah, Sterling Weatherford, _____________

CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, Riley Moss

S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, DeAndre Houston-Carson, _____________

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

That roster yields 25 offensive players, 24 defensive players, and 3 special teamers, leaving one flex roster spot. The safety room remains a bit light, but every other position group except for QB gets a big talent boost. Most importantly, the lines on both sides of the ball get a blitz of new talent. I could see Gipson getting shipped out in a trade for a similarly-situated CB -- non-starter rotation player nearing the end of his rookie deal -- but if this was the roster come September 2023, there would be so much excitement in Bears country. It's a bit jarring to think that the roster could really absorb 15 draftees and 10 free agents (including veterman minimum resignings), but that's where we are.

Finally, the Bears would find themselves with extra picks in 2024 in the 1st (Carolina), 3rd (Houston), and 3rd again (San Francisco) rounds in addition to their full slate of picks as well as an extra 1st in 2025 (Carolina). Should they need to go big game hunting for a WR/DE/LT in 2024, the resources are there to make a move.

Building the Bears: 2023 Mock Offseason (February Update)

Since my initial post on this topic, I've spent a tremendous amount of time digging through this free agent class and the draft class to follow. Most of my thoughts on the Bears' top needs still track well with the initial post linked above, but there are a couple of thoughts that have emerged since that time, as follows:

1. Despite the depth in the DE draft class, the Bears need to find at least one starter there in free agency.
2. Finding at least one and likely two starters at DT in free agency is even more important. The draft class features three attractive 3 technique DTs: Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, and Karl Brooks. Unfortunately, Calijah Kancey and Moro Ojomo both likely lack the size that Matt Eberflus covets. The defense doesn't work without a 3 technique, so signing one -- and then hopefully drafting another -- is the only prudent path ahead.
3. The TE class is quite similar to the DT class. Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, and Darnell Washington are all attractive prospects, but they all figure to come off the board in the first two rounds and only Tucker Kraft looks attractive in the 3rd/4th/5th range. The Bears need another starting-caliber TE to complement Cole Kmet. As such, grabbing a free agent is necessary.
4. RT should be the easiest spot to address in free agency. There are a couple of quality options available for cash who are the right age. Looking at you, Mike McGlinchy and Kaleb McGary.
5. The interior OL spots are trickier. The draft has some quality options with centers Luke Wypler, Joe Tippmann, and John Michael Schmitz standing out as options in Round 2, and I think that Tippmann and Schmitz could play guard for a year or two. Guards are trickier. The Bears like linemen who can move and many of the best guard targets, like O'Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila, look too big to move well in Chicago's outside-zone scheme. I maintain that bringing in a new starting center is the most important move that the club can make, but I can now see a scenario where they keep Lucas Patrick on the roster through the draft, signing a RT and LG while waiting to see if a new C emerges on draft weekend.
6. The Bears need new blood at LB. While at least one draftee will likely come aboard, they should sign a starting-capable body, even if only to a modest deal.

With the above in mind, here's my free agency track to set up the club for the draft:

1. Sign a 3 technique DT: Javon Hargrave, Dre'mont Jones, or Sheldon Rankins. Jones is younger (26 v. 30), Hargrave is better. Hargrave likely commands $20M per year, but he's worth it. For what is effectively a two-year deal, Hargrave is the centerpiece of the Bears' free agency push on a 3-year, $60M deal. If it's Rankins instead, the need to draft a 3 tech remains at the top of the list.
2. Sign RT Mike McGlinchy or RT Kaleb McGary. I have a slight preference for McGlinchy given his preferred pedigree and longer history of solid production, so let's say he's the one. Contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $60M.
3. Sign DE Marcus Davenport. Davenport's market could go numerous directions, but I think there's a decent chance he could take a one-year deal coming off of a disastrous platform year. If he signs for something like $12M on a one-year pact, it better be with the Bears. If he commands $100M over five years, well, that's the cost of doing business. The Bears need a huge infusion of talent up front and Davenport is the only DE with a top-level ceiling. If Davenport doesn't sign, then sign a second-tier DE; could be a young guy like Arden Key, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Samson Ebukam, or Charles Omenihu, or an older option like Trey Flowers, Justin Houston, or Melvin Ingram. I'm partial here to Okoronkwo and Omenihu as my hope is that the Bears find their top DE starter in the draft.
4. Sign a one technique DT like Dalvin Tomlinson or A'Shawn Robinson (and then cut Justin Jones). Jones is a 3 tech, but I can see the Bears holding onto him until he's been replaced. Well, now he's been replaced, ideally with Tomlinson for something like $27M over three years. If it's Robinson, a bit less.
5. Sign a LG to a modest deal; consider Nate Davis and Ben Powers. Spending big here on Isaac Seumalo would be lovely, but I think that the Bears will allocate their bigger dollars above. This could get complicated quickly if the guard market takes off, pushing the Bears toward the numerous quality centers in free agency. If Davis can be had for something like $24M over three years, great. If Davis doesn't work, pivot to Ethan Pocic, Garrett Bradbury, Connor McGovern, or Bradley Bozeman on a deal paying $30M over three years.
6. Sign an old LB to a short-term deal; looking at you, Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David. Both players are elite; both are also old. The Bears could use an infusion of skill and leadership alongside Jack Sanborn. If that comes in a productive package without long-term dollars, even better! Younger studs like Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, or even a more modest acquisition like Bobby Okereke or Germaine Pratt, would also be great. But let's guess that David gets the gig on something like a two-year, $20M deal.
7. Sign a mediocre veteran TE to a short-term deal, like Austin Hooper or Hayden Hurst. These two are interchangeable in my mind. I'd love to see Mike Gesicki with the Bears and he's coming off of a dreadful year that should depress his market value, but Gesicki (i) can't block, and (ii) will still likely command too much money. Let's say it's Hooper for $14M over two years.

If the above comes together, here's the haul:

1. DT Hargrave: $20M AAV
2. RT McGlinchy: $15M AAV
3. DE Davenport: $12M AAV
4. DT Tomlinson: $9M AAV
5. LG Davis: $8M AAV
6. LB David: $10M AAV
7. TE Hooper: $7M AAV

Many of the above deals are designed to bridge the gap for the next two years while this year's and next year's draft classes round into form. They allocate $81M of cap for AAV purposes -- an allocation that will certainly be lower on the 2023 cap -- but the Bears should still have north of $100M of cap space once additional cuts are made anyway (Whitehair, Jones, Patrick, Santos, etc.), so there's plenty of space. So let's get to that draft!

As always, this is completed doing an actual mock draft with PFF's mock draft simulator. I remain heavily partial to the idea of accumulating a bevy of picks by first trading with Houston, then trading down again...but perhaps that's not the way things go and, instead, perhaps the most value is extracted by dealing with Indianapolis. So here goes.

Bears trade #1 to Indianapolis for #4, #35, #79, a 2024 1st, and a 2024 2nd

This seems to be the sweet spot for a deal with the Colts and all but guarantees that QBs go in the first two spots.

After QBs go 1-2, the Cardinals' pick yields the first inflection point of the draft: do they take DE Will Anderson, do they take DT Jalen Carter, or do they trade back to another squad looking for a QB? In this mock, they take Anderson, leaving the Bears to decide whether to take Carter or trade back again. I adore the extra picks, so it should be an easy choice for me. But it's not. Carter is such a good prospect, albeit one who failed to take over the game against Ohio State. There are three compelling options for me:

1. Draft Carter.
2. Trade #4 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, and a 2024 3rd.
3. Trade #4 to Washington for #16, #47, and a 2024 1st.

Woof. Man, this one is tough. There's a chance that my favorite options after Carter -- DE Myles Murphy, DE Tyree Wilson, and DT Bryan Bresee -- are all gone by #16. But an extra 1st, especially from a floundering franchise, is such an attractive proposition, as is the bevy of picks from Carolina. At this point, my thinking is as follows: if Carter is there at #4, I think that the Bears should take him. If he's not? Trade back. I'm just to squeamish to avoid picking up the extra selections.

Bears trade #4 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, and a 2024 3rd

#9: Bears select Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson

Despite numerous opportunities to trade down yet again, Wilson is a centerpiece acquisition.

Bears trade #35 and #103 to Detroit for #48 and #55

I want the Bears to get Schmitz or Wypler, yet #35 feels a little early for such a pick. Thus, akin to trading back for Whitehair half a decade ago, it seems that a center can be acquired a bit later.

Bears trade #39 to Atlanta for #44, #110, and #161

I nearly pulled the trigger on a number of DEs, but there were half a dozen quality options on the board. Atlanta wanted to come up for Stanford QB Tanner McKee and I was happy to oblige despite the mediocre value.

#44: Bears select Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz

This may be a hair early for Schmitz, but no matter. He's a centerpiece addition up front.

#48: Bears select Army DE Andre Carter II

There are still half a dozen quality DEs on the board at this point, but Carter has the ceiling to be a 1st rounder. He's too tempting to forego.

#54: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks

Brooks is a real favorite of mine and has the look of a top-tier 3 tech...just not right away, especially not after spending his college career at DE. He's going to need some time, but with Hargrave in place, Brooks has a development runway.

#55: Bears select LSU WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte may be too risky for the Poles-Eberflus regime, but the talent is there. For a receiving corps in need of a jolt, Boutte would certainly qualify.

#64: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta

I was ready to take an OT here despite a lack of need, but then five came off the board between picks 56 and 64. So, change of plans. Thankfully, LaPorta made it to the 3rd round and yielded an easy choice.

#79: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton

Thus completes the defensive line overhaul. Man, that group looks so much better.

#93: Bears select Texas A&M RB Devon Achane

Achane is a wonderful complementary gadget piece. Plus speed and elite quickness. Can he tote the rock 20 times a game? Probably not, but he can impact games in a huge way.

#110: Bears select Texas LB DeMarvion Overshown

Overshown doesn't look like a star, but he does look like a plug-and-play 'backer who can run.

#134: Bears select Stanford WR Michael Wilson

Wilson is a mess of a prospect at this stage in his development, but he's got a plus ceiling. And given the receiver room that the Bears have in place, they can afford to wait for him to come along.

#137: Bears select Auburn RB Tank Bigsby

Bigsby can't possibly slip this far...right? There are a number of quality backs on the board at this point, but Bigsby is a tremendous complement to Achane.

#150: Bears select Tulane LB Dorian Williams

Williams could be a good fit in the 4th round, so this is really nice value for a player likely to make the roster and contribute early.

Bears trade #161 to New Orleans for #167 and #229

I probably shouldn't have traded back from #161, selecting Maryland CB Jakorian Bennett in that spot instead.

#167: Bears select Texas DT Moro Ojomo

I did make the trade above as I liked the idea of an extra 7th in the defensive backfield, so I slipped down and was delighted to find Ojomo still on the board. He may not ever be a regular, but there's enough athleticism to dream on here.

#220: Bears select Florida S Trey Dean III

A huge frame with special teams ability.

#229: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody

A big leg who is better than Cairo Santos.

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian

RB: Khalil Herbert, Devon Achane, Tank Bigsby, Trestan Ebner

FB: Khari Blasingame

WR: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Kayshon Boutte, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, Michael Wilson

TE: Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Sam LaPorta, ___________

OT: Braxton Jones, Mike McGlinchy, Alex Leatherwood, Larry Borom

G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis

C: John Michael Schmitz, Doug Kramer

DE: Marcus Davenport, Tyree Wilson, Andre Carter II, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson

DT: Javon Hargrave, Dalvin Tomlinson, Karl Brooks, Keeanu Benton, Moro Ojomo

LB: Jack Sanborn, Lavonte David, DeMarvion Overshown, Dorian Williams, Sterling Weatherford

CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, ____________

S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Trey Dean III

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

That roster yields 25 offensive players, 24 defensive players, and 3 special teamers, leaving one flex roster spot. The CB room remains a bit light, but every other position group except for QB gets a big talent boost. Most importantly, the lines on both sides of the ball get a blitz of new talent. I could see Gipson getting shipped out in a trade for a similarly-situated CB -- non-starter rotation player nearing the end of his rookie deal -- but if this was the roster come September 2023, there would be so much excitement in Bears country. It's a bit jarring to think that the roster could really absorb 15 draftees and 10 free agents (including veterman minimum resignings), but that's where we are.

Finally, the Bears would find themselves with extra picks in 2024 in the 1st (Indianapolis), 2nd (Indianapolis), and 3rd (Carolina) rounds in addition to their full slate of picks. Should they need to go big game hunting for a WR in 2024, the resources are there to make a move.

Alternate 2023 Chicago Bears Mock Offseason (Using Rich Hill Draft Value Chart)

I already spilled 4,300 words on a complete mock offseason here and prepared an alternate draft using the Jimmy Johnson draft pick value chart here, intentionally losing every trade. Those were both very fun and I hope you check them out.

The toughest part of mocks remains putting together trades that don't yield rolling eyes. So, I'm going to try one more mock offseason that takes the same free agent deals, the same starting draft position, and then runs back the draft, utilizing the Rich Hill trade value chart and hunting for the fairest deals possible according to that chart, not relying on the PFF mock draft tool to determine trade fairness. For purposes of this mock, future picks will be assumed to be mid-round selections, discounted by 25%.

Let's do this.

Bears trade #1 to Texans for #2, #33, #65, and #104
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 1,000 for 1,009 (717 + 180 + 78 + 34)

This value feels just about right. I can see settling into this zone, though I could also see the Bears settling at #65, #73, and #104. The chart sure does like this deal.

You know the drill now: the Bears then turn to the Colts, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, Commanders, Titans, and maybe even the Lions or Jets to see who most desperately wants the QB of their choice. And they take the highest offer. Given the public comments from Colts GM Chris Ballard, I think he'll ultimately be the one to pony up.

Bears trade #2 to Colts for #4, #35, and #79
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 717 for 718 (491 + 170 + 57)

Wow. The Hill and Johnson charts see this deal playing out very similarly. Much, much lighter than Bears fans hope and assume.

Thankfully, there's still tons of value on the board: Stroud, Anderson, Murphy, Wilson, Bresee, etc. all remain available. Somebody wants Stroud, right?

Bears trade #4 to Raiders for #7 and #70
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 491 for 496 (426 + 70)

This is a moment where the value chart just doesn't come close to lining up with real world prices. But with all four of Anderson, Murphy, Wilson, and Bresee on the board, I'm happy to make the deal and let the teams ahead of me decide who I get...

As it turns out, this mock went off the rails with all four of Bryce Young, Will Levis, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson going in the top six picks. Good grief. With only Carter and Murphy off the board, the pick at #7 is easy...

#7: Bears select Alabama DE Will Anderson Jr.
I shared thoughts on Anderson earlier. He's too good not to draft here.

Bears trade #33 to Buccaneers for #50, #82, and #154
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 180 for 182 (115 + 54 + 13)

This feels like pretty decent value here. Admittedly, it's tough to swallow trading down so far here, but the extra picks are necessary and the best players on the board aren't a good match for the Bears' needs.

Bears trade #35 to Panthers for #39 and #146
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 170  for 170 (153 + 17)

I think that the Bears would get a 4th here in real life, not a 5th.

#39: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
Glad to see Wright again. I like him.

#50: Bears select Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz
A perfect landing spot. Schmitz can start at LG and work his way to C as Pocic ages. Perfect.

#54: Bears select Penn State WR Parker Washington
I think Washington climbs in the draft process. He's deceptively athletic, has good hands, and a YAC machine. He looks like a RB but plays as a true WR. I think he'd be a great fit in the Bears offense.

I felt confident taking Washington because (i) he's the only WR I liked in this zone, (ii) there were half a dozen edge rushers that I liked in the next batch of players, and (iii) I picked again in 10 picks. So what happens? Five straight edges to end the 2nd. Argh.

Bears Trade #64 and #217 to Cardinals for #66 and #178
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 83 (80 + 3) for 83 (76 + 7)

I like this deal.

#65: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
Iowa TEs are probably the safest bets in the world of football.

#66: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton
This may be high for Benton, but he's the classic run stuffer in the heart of a defense.

Bears Trade #70, #154, and #178 to Jets for #74 and #112
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 90 (70 + 13 + 7) for 94 (64 + 30)

Bears Trade #74 to Chiefs for #94 and #133
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 64 for 63 (41 + 22)

#79: Bears select Texas OLB DeMarvion Overshown
Overshown is undersized, but the Bears desperately need a fast OLB.

#82: Bears select Notre Dame DE Isaiah Foskey
Every draft has a guy who falls and in this PFF mock, Foskey is a guy who sinks. He should be able to contribute early and has a good, though not elite, ceiling.

#94: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
The Bears end another slide and get a rotational defensive lineman.

Bears Trade #134 and #146 to Eagles for #95
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 39 (22 + 17) for 40

I really liked two of the CBs on the board here -- Utah's Clark Phillips III and Texas A&M's Jaylon Jones -- as well as as pair of non-corners -- USC G Andrew Vorhees and Notre Dame S Brandon Joseph. This trade up was an easy choice.

#95: Bears select USC G Andrew Vorhees
Vorhees could be a plug-and-play starter. Easy pick.

Bears Trade #104 and #136 to Browns for #99 and #143
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 55 (34 + 21) for 55 (37 + 18)

#96: Bears select Utah CB Clark Phillips III
Did I need to come up for Phillips? I don't know. But I'm glad that I did. I like him despite the small stature.

#103: Bears select Ole Miss RB Zach Evans
Evans has the frame and skills to be an every-down back.

#112: Bears select Princeton WR Andrei Iosivas
Big, productive, and fast...but in the Ivy League. This is a great spot for the unknown Tiger.

Bears trade DE Trevis Gipson to Chiefs for #123
Gipson plateaued in 2022 and he has the unfortunate reality of having been brought in my the Ryan Pace regime. The Chiefs gladly trade a Day Three pick for a fringe starter during their window of contention.

#123: Bears select Auburn OLB Owen Pappoe
Pappoe was never particularly scary at Auburn, but all of the measurables are there to be a force. It's worth a shot.

#133: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss
Moss has a big enough body to be a versatile piece in the defensive backfield.

#143: Bears select Florida S Rashad Torrence II
Torrence plays a similar style to Jaquan Brisker, but he may also have just enough quickness to spend some time in the slot.

Bears Trade #149 to Buccaneers for #154 and #235
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 15 for 15 (13 + 2)

#154: Bears select Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn
Vaughn is a complementary piece as a quick back who can be used as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Very different from Evans.

#235: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Is it necessary to use this pick on Moody? Perhaps, perhaps not. But he represents a delightful upgrade over Cairo Santos on a cheaper deal, and I like getting control of Moody's rights via the selection.

Following the free agency and draft above, below is the final roster for 2023. Free agents signings are italicized and draftees are bolded.

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian

HB: Khalil Herbert, Zach Evans, Trestan Ebner, Deuce Vaughn

FB: __________

WR: Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, Parker Washington, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, Andrei Iosivas

TE: Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, ____________

OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Larry Borom, Alex Leatherwood

OG: Teven Jenkins, Andrew Vorhees, Ja'Tyre Carter

C: Ethan Pocic, John Michael Schmitz Doug Kramer

DE: Marcus Davenport, Will Anderson Jr., Isaiah Foskey, Dominique Robinson, Clelin Ferrell Trevis Gipson

DT: Javon Hargrave, Sheldon Rankins, Keeanu Benton, Gervon Dexter

OLB: David Long, DeMarvion Overshown, Owen Pappoe

ILB: Jack Sanborn, ____________,

CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Clark Phillips III, Kindle Vildor, Riley Moss, Jaylon Jones

S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Rashad Torrence II, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Elijah Hicks

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales, Cairo Santos

This mock represents a middle ground between the earliest mock and the losing mock: it does feel like most every position group is "fixed" yet, most notably, there aren't any additional picks added to the war chest for 2024 and beyond.

It's amazing how many holes can be filled with 17 draft picks!