Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: Post Free-Agency Edition (includes Free Agent Grades)

My last two mock offseasons included grades for the LG Joe Thuney, RG Jonah Jackson, and DT Chris Williams transactions. There are now a bevy of additional deals to address. So here goes!

Note that terms aren't yet available for additional announced signings -- when the terms are available, I'll provide grades for the signings of DT Grady Jarrett, TE Durham Smythe, S Tarvarious Moore, and LS Scott Daly.

Bears sign C Drew Dalman to a 3-year, $42M deal with $28M guaranteed

The first big move of the legal tampering period was a terribly kept secret, but that won't impact this evaluation. The options at center were as follows:

1. Bring back Coleman Shelton.
1. Shelton was solid after a brutal September last year, so this option could've worked. Not ideal.
2. Rely on Ryan Bates to be healthy and good.
1. Bates has played 140 snaps over the last two years combined. I should only speak well of former Nittany Lions, but depending on Bates to play 1,000 snaps seems foolish.
3. Sign Dalman.
4. Draft a new starting C.
1. This option traditionally yields poor results. Last year's top C prospect, Duke's Graham Barton, struggled in Tampa Bay. The prior year's top C prospect, Minnesota's John Michael Schmitz, had a dreadful rookie year despite being 24.
5. Move Jackson or Thuney to C.
1. This plan stinks, especially moving an elite LG (Thuney) out of position.

In my opinion, there was precisely one palatable option for the 2025 Bears. With apologies to Cody Whitehair and James Daniels, the Bears have largely gotten either average or terrible production at C since Olin Kreutz left town. Dalman can move. Dalman is experienced. He is arguably the best C in the league when leading an outside zone rushing attack. He is the perfect fit for Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson's rushing attack.

Dalman's pass blocking grades were average this year, but he's showing growth in that area. If he combines average pass blocking with top-of-the-league run blocking, he's a massive win for the roster.

Surprisingly, despite a marketplace where G and OT salaries are exploding, Dalman's contract came in very much in line with the existing market with a two-year guarantee at sensible dollars. Incredibly, Dalman would leave only $2M of dead cap hit in 2027 if he was cut before that season.

Grade: A-

Bears sign DE Dayo Odeyingbo to a 3-year, $48M deal with $32M guaranteed

Odeyingbo is a nice addition to this team and he's the right kind of player to target in free agency. He turns 26 in September, he has a solid pedigree as the 54th pick in the 2021 draft, and he appears to be an ascending player with improving pass rush production and increasing snap counts each year.

That said, Odeyingbo's overall production has been that of a low-end DE2, so this is a significant bet on pedigree, growth, and fit in Dennis Allen's system. It's also likely that Odeyingbo's best role is as an early-down DE who kicks inside to DT in obvious pass rushing sets. Odeyingbo's deal sees $4.5M of dead cap in 2027, hardly an unforgiveable amount if he plateaus or regresses. I dislike the backloaded nature of his deal as the 2025 cap hit of just $8M skyrockets to $20.5M and $19.5M in the two years that follow.

More notably, it's hard for me to reconcile the decision to sign Odeyingbo to this deal with the choice to jettison DeMarcus Walker and his very modest $5.9M cap hit for a player expected to do the same thing. I'm hopeful that Odeyingbo brings some fresh juice to this group and that his much longer arms create the kind of pressure on opposing offenses that Dennis Allen wants.

In the end, Odeyingbo is a sensible risk on a rather hefty deal who offers a bit to dream on. A reasonable-enough deal that gets dinged for the Walker-for-Odeyingbo nature of the move, ending up just a tick below average.

Grade: C-

NFL Draft

The free agency signings and the trades that preceded them have really opened up the draft. What does that mean? Whereas the #10, #39, #41, and #72 picks were previously expected to provide rookie starters at DE, G, and possibly DT, GM Ryan Poles now has considerably more flexibility to pursue the players he wants. Think Penn State TE Tyler Warren is the perfect fit for Ben Johnson? Great! Believe that Boist State RB Ashton Jeanty is the difference-maker that the Bears need? OK! Think that Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen has the highest ceiling of the 2nd round DEs but that he might not be able to play a ton as a rookie until he adds more weight? He can still be the pick.

#10: Penn State TE Tyler Warren

Am I biased in taking Warren over Jeanty? Maybe. Should Missouri OT Armand Membou be the pick instead? Maybe, but that's only because I have him pegged at RG; I don't think he projects as a LT.

Warren opens up a 12 personnel offense in a way that no other player can. He would be unbelievably fun. So here goes. If there were trade down options here, I would've taken one.

#39: Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr.

This is a good spot for Conerly, who steps in as Braxton Jones' competition at LT or Jonah Jackson's replacement at RG if Jones takes the leap. He's a great fit in a zone blocking scheme, too.

#41: South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders

Sanders reorients the makeup of the DT room in a hurry. Sanders slides into the 3-tech pipeline behind Grady Jarrett and gets to learn the ropes from an eminently successful longtime NFL stud. Those two complement Gervon Dexter and Andrew Billings nicely in the rotation. This also gives rise to another move that probably needs to happen at this point.

Bears trade DT Zacch Pickens to New York Jets for #146

Pickens was a big reach at #65 two years ago and he has been a massive flop. Getting a 5th for him would be a good outcome at this point. That stinks.

#72: Oregon DE Jordan Burch

Burch combines the hulking physique that Dennis Allen wants with insane athleticism. So why is he available here? I'm not sure if he's all that good at football just yet. He looks like a great athlete playing football more so than he looks like a great football player who is very athletic.

With Odeyingbo in tow, the Bears can afford to bring Burch along a bit more slowly. He's worth the risk here. Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr. would also be a great fit here.

#146: SMU RB Brashard Smith

Smith is little. Smith is fast. Smith is never going to be an NFL feature back, but his background as a WR makes him a great addition to the Bears roster as a gadget weapon. He's a nice value here and a really fun toy for Ben Johnson.

#149: Washington State WR Kyle Williams

Williams is slight, but he is also very quick. He looks like a guy who can go 0-to-60 in a snap, something that should help him create the necessary separation in the NFL. Williams may lack the beefiness necessary to play in Ben Johnson's offense, and it might be too much to take both Smith and Williams in the same class. Nevertheless, I like the player enough to give it a shot.

#235: Wisconsin S Hunter Wohler

Wohler feels like a new-age college LB. At 6'2", 218 lbs., he's big enough to play in the box, but he's not so big as to truly play LB, especially at the NFL level. This feels like a spot to take a good player with lots of experience and enough athletic traits, then play around with his physical profile to see if he can stick at S, move to LB, or settle in as a special teamer.

#242: Maryland WR Tai Felton

I've liked Felton for months. He's surely not a game-changer given his light weight, but he is fast, explosive, and a pretty good pass catcher. He was extremely productive in 2024, too.

QB: (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Ian Wheeler, Brashard Smith

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Durham Smythe, Tyler Warren

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Tyler Scott, Kyle Williams, Tai Felton, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Josh Conerly Jr.

OG (4): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie, Bill Murray

C    (2): Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy, Jordan Burch

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Grady Jarrett, Chris Williams, T.J. Sanders

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Josh Blackwell

S    (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Jonathan Owens, Tarvarious Moore, Hunter Wohler

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, Scott Daly

Proof:

I always like to make trades throughout the draft, but sometimes the opportunities don't present themselves. That was the case here as the only trade offers were to move way down -- 20+ spots -- from #41. Given my strong desire to land an impact pass rusher, I couldn't stomach that.

No matter. These are very nice additions of talent to the roster with four big guys leading the way.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: Final Pre-Free Agency Preview

Prior mock offseason include solid detail of my assumptions; find the most recent one here. Since that mock, the Bears have reupped with core special teamers CB Josh Blackwell and LB Amen Ogbongbemiga on relatively modest deals expected to carry cap hits in the $2.5M neighborhood each; the Blackwell details came out during this post and he landed at a $2.375M cap hit in 2025. The club also signed Dolphins blocking TE Durham Smythe to an undisclosed deal. I'll grade those three after they are finalized.

There's one additional deal that has terms, which I'll grade now.

Bears extend original round tender to DT Chris Williams

What? For the uninitiated, an original round tender for the restricted free agent and former undrafted player means that the Bears are offering Williams a one-year, $3.263M deal; if he agrees to a deal with another squad, the Bears will have the right to match. If they don't match, Williams is gone without compensation. Importantly, this deal is not guaranteed; if the Bears subsequently cut Williams, he will leave no dead cap hit behind.

I don't understand this move at all. Betting on Williams last year was a fine gamble for a team in need of a 4th DT. Unfortunately, Williams failed the test, grading out among the worst players on the team. He's not young; he turns 27 this summer and has been rostered for four full NFL seasons. This is who he is and who he is isn't good. I hate that the RFA tender suggests even the possibility that the Bears might devote $3.263M to a player who should struggle to be the 5th DT next year, assuming a new DT or two joins the fold via the draft and/or free agency.

Thankfully, this isn't a failing move due to the unguaranteed nature of the deal. That's the only saving grace.

Grade: D-

Pre-Free Agency Cap Situation

In these mocks, I have consistently assumed that the Bears will keep $20M dry for (i) the $4.5M practice squad, (ii) about $8M needed to sign their draft class, and (iii) $10M for in-season maneuvering. Ryan Poles has largely eschewed cap shenanigans utilized by teams like Philly (yay!) and New Orleans (yikes!) during his tenure. If he's going to be active today, cap shenanigans will likely enter the picture.

What do I mean by cap shenanigans? Void years. An entirely legal way under the cap to kick the can down the road. Look no further than Philly stud DE Josh Sweat. Sweat counted $8.1M against Philly's cap during last year's Super Bowl season, a paltry sum for a plus starting DE. His contract then expired; he wasn't cut or traded. His 2025 cap hit? $16.4M, tied with retired C Jason Kelce for the 4th highest on the team. Philly has $59.9M of dead cap against their 2025 cap sheet. They went all-in and it paid off. Obviously, every other team that went all-in also watched Philly hoist the Lombardi Trophy, waking up with considerably more cap regret.

So, what does this mean for the Bears? After the big trades for LG Joe Thuney and presumed RG Jonah Jackson combined with the assumed amounts of the deals above, the Bears have allocated $244M to their 53-man active roster, assigning $840K cap holds to unfilled roster spots. Only the top-51 contracts actually count against the cap, but there aren't currently any players on injured reserve, so we'll keep the top-53 for estimation purposes.

Add in $4.1M in dead money and we're at $248.1M. Now add in the $20M for the practice squad, draft class, and in-season flexibility, and we hit $268.1M. With an adjusted cap of $284.1M, that leaves just $16M of net cap space for the entire free agent class.

"Net" is doing some work in that sentence. For example, a player signed to a one-year, $1M deal would utilize only $160K of net cap space when he kicked a minimum salary player off of the cap sheet. That helps...a little.

Back when Poles had a deal than ran through the 2026 season, I figured cap shenanigans would enter the picture for the desperate GM. The targets are relatively clear: WR D.J. Moore, DE Montez Sweat, and CB Jaylon Johnson all figure to stick around beyond 2025 and have hefty base salaries that could be converted into restructure bonuses to push cap hits down the line a bit, even without utilizing void years. Restructured deals for Thuney or Jackson could also yield space.

However, given reports last month that the GM's deal now aligns with Ben Johnson's and runs through 2029, I don't think that cap shenanigans will enter the picture. Poles has some time.

Team Needs

Obviously there are a lot of needs for a team coming off of five straight losing seasons. Here's how I see them:

1. Center. Duh. This spot has been weak or terrible for years now. Coleman Shelton acquitted himself nicely from October onward last year after a dreadful September. Could he return? Perhaps. Importantly, however, rookie centers are almost always a poor option; finding a veteran to start is a must.
2. Defensive End. I loved Austin Booker last year, but Booker remains a project. He's currently slated to start opposite Sweat with Dominique Robinson serving as his top backup. Yikes. 
3. Defensive Tackle. With Zacch Pickens looking like a whiff, this room needs a boost. 
4. Offensive Line. This is specifically a draft need assuming center is addressed in free agency. The Bears need another young player who can grow in year one and start in year two. This player needn't be a purely developmental prospect like Kiran Amegadjie, but he also doesn't need to start given the players in front of him.
5. Tight End. While not the most obvious need, the Ben Johnson offense thrives on this spot and it's worth remembering that the Lions shipped out a solid TE on his rookie deal -- T.J. Hockenson -- in favor of finding an upgrade in the draft, which they certainly found in Sam LaPorta. Cole Kmet is decent, but he's no star and he'd leave only $4.8M of dead cap behind if he was traded. I suspect he'd yield a solid return.

Free Agency Moves

Get ready for a muted Monday, Chicagoland. Poles did his major shopping last week. Unless he (i) finds a taker for D'Andre Swift and ships out all but $0.6M of his $9.3M cap hit, or (ii) engages in some heavy cap shenanigans, he's not going to have the cap space to make more than one major move. Candidly, he doesn't appear to have the cap space to play at the top of the market at almost any position. Remember that we're talking about $16M of net space with which to play. So, there won't be any Khalil Mack reunion and don't expect to see Milton Williams providing a jolt to the DT group. Instead, get ready for something like this:

1. Sign C Drew Dalman to a 4-year, $56M deal with $30M guaranteed. Dalman continues to make the most sense. He's the right style of player at a huge position of need having excelled in an outside zone system. The Bears will need Dalman to stay healthy, but he's otherwise the right fit. Shelton is truly the next best option.
2. Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal with $2.25M guaranteed. I like Barnett. He's a part-time player, but the Bears desperately need at least a part-time player opposite Sweat while Booker develops.
3. Sign WR Tim Patrick to a 1-year, $1.75M deal with $1M guaranteed. Patrick is a great success story, going from undrafted rookie to Broncos starter to a 3-year, $35M extension to a torn ACL followed by a torn Achilles to the Lions practice squad and finally back into the lineup. What does he have left in the tank at age 31 following a pair of significant injuries? Who knows? At this cost, though, he works.

If that doesn't feel gaudy, that's fair. But this is what $17.5M of net cap spending looks like, going a tick over the $16M estimated. Yikes!

Draft

This team still needs help. Time to go find it. Remember: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham isn't there at #10, I'm trading down, if possible.

Chicago trades #10 and a 2026 6th to Houston for #25, #57, #89, #126, and a 2026 2nd

Woof. #10 to #25 is tough to stomach. But this was the only team interested in playing ball, so down we go in search of depth.

#25: North Dakota State OL Grey Zabel

Time to eat your vegetables. There were lots of players that looked like way more fun, but ultimately, Zabel is the ideal fit for this team. An experienced, versatile OL with arm length limitations (32") who projects as a 2026 starter at G and Dalman's successor at C. Eat. Those. Veggies.

#39: Oregon DT Derrick Harmon

This is an awfully tricky spot with the Bears in desperate need of a DE and three excellent choices available in the form of Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen, Texas A&M DE Nic Scourton, and Arkansas DE Landon Jackson. I landed on Jackson as my post-Combine preference whereas I've otherwise preferred the other two. Regardless, a huge addition here...eventually.

At #39, however, I'm normally targeting Texas DT Alfred Collins unless another DT slips, like Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen, Toledo DT Darius Alexander, or today's pick, Oregon DT Derrick Harmon. Harmon is a massive win for this team.

#41: Michigan DT Colston Loveland

Now, I get greedy. With Loveland surprisingly available still at #41 and all three of Umanmielen, Scourton, and Jackson on the board, take the TE and figure out the DE spot in the coming picks.

#57: Texas A&M DE Nic Scourton

And the greed pays off! Umanmielen likely has a decidedly higher ceiling, but his floor is dramatically lower than Scourton's. So, with Booker already in-house, Scourton is the pick here.

#72: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery

Ersery hasn't excelled in the pre-draft process, but I don't really know why. He's gigantic, moves very well, and showed out against Abdul Carter. Ersery joining the fold is bad news for ERFA Bill Murray.

There were players at more important positions of need available, but Ersery is far and away the best value here.

#89: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

I still can't believe he's pegged as a 3rd rounder. He could be the best safety in the whole class!

#126: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

I considered trading up for Utah State WR Jalen Royals late in the 3rd, but he went about 10 spots before I was comfortable with the trade cost. Instead, I sat tight at #126 and was rewarded with the hulking Walker, who officially kicks Chris Williams off of the roster and can slowly come along in a newly loaded DT room. Texas S Andrew Mukuba also merited consideration here.

#149: Washington State WR Kyle Williams

Mukuba inexplicably made it here, but in the interest of legitimacy, I couldn't take him. Williams is the pick instead and his first-step quickness provides a nice jolt to the WR group.

#235: Wisconsin S Hunter Wohler

Wohler looks slow but tested surprisingly decently at the Combine. I'm not sure that he makes this roster, but he could bulk up enough to become an in-the-box chess piece for Dennis Allen.

#242: Arkansas RB Ja'Quinden Jackson

A former QB, Jackson brings athleticism and very little experience at this position. Give him some time to figure it out and see what happens.

Final Roster

The moves above yield the following roster:

Here's the assembled roster:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Ja'Quinden Jackson, Ian Wheeler

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland, Durham Smythe

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Tim Patrick, Kyle Williams, Tyler Scott, FREE AGENT

OT (4): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kiran Amegadjie, Aireontae Ersery

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Grey Zabel

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Derek Barnett, Nic Scourton, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Derrick Harmon, Zacch Pickens, Deone Walker

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, Amen Ogbongbemiga

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Josh Blackwell

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Jonathan Owens, Elijah Hicks, Kevin Winston Jr.

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's the PFF simulator screenshot:

There may be some controversy if the Bears drop from #10 to #25 and don't pick up an extra first-round pick. However, as this draft shows, there is superb talent available in the second round every year and those picks are insanely valuable, especially when turned into young top prospects (and not Chase Claypool or a top-of-the-market extension for Montez Sweat).

This draft was just about perfect with only the RB and LB rooms potentially feeling shortchanged.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: Now That the Bears Have All of the Guards...

In my last mock offseason, I wondered what it would be like if the Bears opted to avoid investing big assets in the LG and RG spots. Ha! Ryan Poles took the opposite approach this week, opting to make a pair of massive investments in Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney. Before delving into a wildly revised mock offseason in light of these moves, I'll start by grading those moves.

Before I do, an essential disclaimer: there's no grade inflation here. So, a C is a perfectly average move, a B is really good, an A is elite, a D is subpar, and an F is failing.

Bears trade #198 to Los Angeles Rams for LG Jonah Jackson

There's no sugarcoating it: I hated this trade. I haven't watched most of Jackson's career, so I'm putting lots of stock in a few viewings of him at Ohio State, in Detroit, and his grades and reputation. Jackson was a relatively middling draft prospect coming out of OSU with a mediocre Combine performance that yielded a 6.43 RAS. None of this would matter if he was great in the NFL, but he's never been terribly impressive. He was a Pro Bowl alternate once in his first five seasons despite spending four of those on the elite OL in Detroit surrounding by stars like Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow, and Taylor Decker. So, we've got five years of slightly below-average production. Not great. He was even benched by the Rams upon returning from injury this year.

(If you think looking at the RAS of a 6th-year pro is ridiculous, that's fine. But here are the other OL Poles has acquired: Braxton Jones (8.44...but with 35.4" arms!), Doug Kramer (8.49), Ja'Tyre Carter (6.31), Darnell Wright (9.68), Ryan Bates (9.54), and Kiran Amegadjie (n/a). He has a type.)

But that's before we get to the two massive downsides: health and cost. Jackson missed four games in 2022, six more in 2023 with two different ailments that caused him to miss big chunks of time, and 13 more in 2024. Yikes! And then we see that Jackson is due $17.5M from the Bears in 2025. There's some confusion on this point, but his contract is rather simple: he's due a $9M base salary that guarantees next week and an $8.5M roster bonus next week. The Bears are paying him $17.5M this year. While this isn't a top-of-the-market price, it's near that level and the Bears paid to get this contract, shipping out a 6th. I'm baffled. If the Bears wanted to avoid paying free agent pricing, that's fine...but this is free agent pricing!

There were only three plausible positives to this deal. First, it shows a commitment to the offensive line. Unfortunately, this is undercut by the reality that Jackson is worse than Teven Jenkins, just as injured as Jenkins, more expensive than Jenkins, and older than Jenkins. Woof. Second, Jackson is a LG in a market flooded with RGs, and he also had 200 snaps at C and 800 snaps at RG at OSU. Getting a LG made sense...until they got another, better LG the next day! Third, the Ben Johnson connection. Nabbing Jackson shows a willingness to find players that have a connection to Johnson. Whatever. GM Ryan Poles is supposed to be the adult in the room and get the right type of players for his coach, not an oft-injured guy on an underwater deal.

Poles' legacy of pick-for-player trades feature a couple of losses involving the offensive line, namely the 2023 6th he shipped to Miami for Dan Feeney and the 2024 5th he sent to Buffalo for Ryan Bates, to say nothing of the Chase Claypool whopper and, to a much lesser degree, what looks like a decent overpay for Montez Sweat. This one looks like the worst by a massive margin.

Original Grade: F

Updated Grade after Thuney Trade: F-

Bears trade 2026 4th to Kansas City for LG Joe Thuney

This is a more expensive trade than the Jackson trade. But this one is awesome for one key reason: Joe Thuney rules.

Thuney has been a stud since he entered the league in 2016. He has won four Super Bowls and lost two more. He was second-team All-Pro in 2019 and 2022, which is great! And it's completely overshadowed by Thuney being first-team All-Pro in 2023 and 2024. He's a star. And he's on a below-market deal, owed just $16M for the 2025 season, though the Bears would be wise to extend him for a bit.

There are three drawbacks to this deal. First, a 2026 4th is a meaningful cost to pay for what is presumably a rental player, but I think it's plenty fair. Second, Thuney is old. He's 33. Here's hoping he ages like Ruben Brown and Jason Peters instead of falling off a cliff. If he does, this deal will look even better. Third, this deal doesn't exist in a vacuum; it's yet another pick-for-player trade by Poles, and the Bears' draft capital continues to wither away.

Two other thoughts. First, I've heard some baffling talk that it's stupid for the Bears to invest at LG when the Chiefs are willing to downgrade at that spot; this is asinine considering that the Chiefs are only moving on from Thuney because of his $27M cap number in Kansas City and the new $23M cap number for RG Trey Smith. Second, the only way to for the Bears to blow this trade is to kick Thuney out to LT; let him be a star at LG.

Grade: B (remember, that's pretty darn good!)

Now, onto the mock offseason. Note that I put this together before the announcements of deals with TE Durham Smythe, CB Josh Blackwell, and LB Amen Ogbengemiga.

Free Agency

In my last mock offseason, I had the Bears at $78.3M of net cap space. So, I'll assume that the Bears entered this week with about $58.3M to spend, keeping $20M of powder dry to sign their draft class, extend Kyler Gordon, and make in-season moves. With the additions of Jackson and Thuney, the net cap space has dropped considerably, down to about $26.5M.

1. Sign DE Josh Sweat to a 3-year, $54M with $32.5M guaranteed. This move requires a tiny bit a cap flexibility that I didn't otherwise plan on, but the Bears need a real splash addition to the defense. Sweat is an ideal complement to Sweat and allows Austin Booker to come along a bit more slowly. 
2. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $6M guaranteed. It would be great to make this Drew Dalman, but I'm not sure that Poles can allocate that much cap space to the interior OL. Dalman figures to garner about $14M per year and has his own injury concerns. Shelton is no star, but he's a solid citizen, offers some continuity, and played significantly better football after a brutal September.
3. Sign WR Brandin Cooks to a 1-year, $3M deal with $2M guaranteed. Cooks has been a consistent producer for a long time, but he's nearing the end...and that's fine! He's here as WR3 if the draft doesn't break right or, ideally, WR4 if it does.
4. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. TE3 ideally; TE2 if necessary.
5. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is old and hurt, but the Bears need some insurance here.
6. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping a productive RFA.

Even without accounting for lower year-one cap hits and assuming equal AAVs, this free agency period uses $27.7M of net cap space assuming Sweat's signing pushes Dominique Robinson off of the roster, pushing me a tick beyond the $26.5M estimate above but this remains plenty workable. Of the new Bears, only Sweat has meaningful cap ramifications in 2026.

NFL Draft

Entering the draft, the Bears can do basically whatever they want, though the goal remains the same: get Penn State DE Abdul Carter, Michigan DT Mason Graham, or trade down.

Bears trade #10 to Denver for #20, #52, #121, and a 2026 2nd

I made this exact same trade last time. In this draft, Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan dropped, which was hugely beneficial for me.

#20: Texas A&M Shemar Stewart

Stewart didn't do much at Texas A&M, but his Combine performance puts him firmly in the first round. He's the unicorn that every team always wants. With M. Sweat and J. Sweat ahead of him, the Bears can afford to develop him in a complementary role as a rookie, putting him in favorable situations.

Bears trade #39 to Seattle for #50, #82, and a 2026 4th

This was the trickiest spot in the entire draft: both North Dakota State G/C Grey Zabel and, stunningly, Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. were on the board. Banks had to be the pick, right? Wrong. I got greedy with a trade and crossed my fingers that at least one of Banks or Zabel would make it to #41. Gulp.

This trade recoups the 2026 4th sent to Kansas City for Thuney.

#41: Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr.

Zabel didn't make it, but incredibly, Banks did. He's the LT of the future. I'm not sure what he is in 2025, but perhaps he can work his way into the lineup at RG if Jackson kicks over to C. I don't love the tape on Banks and he has injury issues on his resume. But come on. This value is too good.

#50: Ohio State DT Tyleik Williams

The drawback of the trades? Everyone I liked got drafted between #43 and #49. Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery. Arkansas DE Landon Jackson. Notre Dame S Xavier Watts. North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton. Texas DT Alfred Collins. Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen. OUCH!

Williams is a perfectly solid consolation prize. He's beefy yet remarkably quick at his massive size. I'm not sure about his specific fit in the defense, but Andrew Billings made no sense schematically and made himself indispensable. This will work itself out.

#52: Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo

I hate this pick and I have no idea where Skattebo is going in the draft. I do know, however, that Ben Johnson will want to run the ball like crazy and Skattebo will be a tone setter.

#72: Miami TE Elijah Arroyo

This is a great spot with four players that I really like that fit the roster really well: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr., Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea, Utah State WR Jalen Royals, and West Virginia OL Wyatt Milum. But Arroyo is too enticing, despite his injury history. He can absolutely fly and take the lid off of a defense from the middle of the field.

#82: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

Ultimately, Winston's draft stock took a massive hit due to his partially torn ACL in early September. But an early September partial ACL tear means that Winston should be able to play a full rookie season, bringing his massive ceiling to the roster. He's the prudent choice here, especially because there are more WRs in the coming rounds that I like.

#121: Colorado State WR Tory Horton

Horton is long and fast. He's a great addition to this WR room.

#149: Cal CB Nohl Williams

Williams had a decent Combine, but his biggest draws remain his length and kick returning ability. He's a nice addition here with little pressure to contribute early.

#235: Miami WR Samuel Brown

Brown is a great athlete. He's not a good football player yet. We'll see where this goes.

#242: UCLA Kain Medrano

Medrano is a former WR who is wildly undersized -- he needs to put on 20 pounds. But he should have a chance to contribute on special teams given his speed and explosiveness while he adds weight.

Here's the assembled roster:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Cam Skattebo, Ian Wheeler

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Elijah Arroyo, Austin Hooper

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Brandin Cooks, Tory Horton, Tyler Scott, Samuel Brown

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kelvin Banks Jr.

OG (4): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie, Bill Murray

C (2):   Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, Shemart Stewart, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Tyleik Williams, Zacch Pickens, FREE AGENT

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, Kain Medrano

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Nohl Williams

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Kevin Winston Jr., Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's the PFF simulator screenshot:

This is probably my least favorite mock. But there's still a ton of depth additions here to a roster that desperately needs it. I get scared running mocks at this point without trades.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: What If Ben Johnson Follows the Detroit Blueprint Up Front?

It's surely a fools errand to read too much specifically what Detroit Lions GM Brad Holmes did as a predictor of what new Bears coach Ben Johnson will want to see in Chicago...right? I don't know. So, in an effort to consider an alternative path this offseason, here's a Bears' mock offseason incorporating the following core concepts from Detroit:

1. The offensive line is key. But, more specifically, the OTs and the C are key. The Gs? They're less important if LT-C-RT are strong.
1. The RG spot, specifically, was a revolving door in Detroit. From Evan Brown in 2022 to Graham Glasgow in 2023 to Kevin Zeitler in 2024, Detroit never invested heavily in that spot. And when Jonah Jackson hit free agency as the top LG? Detroit let him jump to LA.
2. Explosive offensive players rule the day and they need to exist at all three skill spots: WR, RB, and TE.
1. Johnson is saying the right things about D'Andre Swift right now, but it's hard to believe that Johnson wants Swift as RB1.
3. Rotations are essential at DT. But not at DE.
1. But maybe this only applies if you have a true DE1?
4. WR4 consistently gets good run.

Regarding point #1, I went in search of a big upgrade over Braxton Jones in free agency, but -- no disrespect to Ronnie Stanley or Alaric Jackson -- I don't see an obvious one. If Jones was healthy, could I see the Bears drafting his replacement in April, then trading Jones at the draft? Sure. But he's not, so it still seems most likely the the LG in 2025 is a draftee with a potential future at LT if Jones doesn't work out long term.

Free Agency

I'm relying on free agency decisions and cap projections from my last mock offseason here, except that dead money has increased to $5.4M in light of DeMarcus Walker's release and estimated cap space has increased to $78.3M for the same reason. So, I'll assume that the Bears enter free agency with about $58.3M to spend, keeping $20M of powder dry to sign their draft class, extend Kyler Gordon, and make in-season moves.

1. Sign DT Milton Williams to a 3-year, $63M deal with $40M guaranteed. The 3 technique spot was decent but not great last year. Gervon Dexter improved dramatically, but that improvement came after a truly dreadful rookie season. So, the Bears go to the top of the market for the best interior pass rusher available.
2. Sign DE Chase Young to a 2-year, $35M deal with $20M guaranteed. Yes, it's comical to reunite Sweat and Young. But even though it feels like Young has been around a for a long time, he'll be just 26 this year. He's a big upgrade over Walker.
3. Sign C Drew Dalman to a 4-year, $46M deal with $27.5M guaranteed. Dalman becomes priority #1 in this scenario. Take care of the C spot first.
4. Sign RG Brandon Scherff to a 1-year, $6M deal with $5M guaranteed. This looks a lot like Kevin Zeitler's deal in Detroit last year.
5. Sign WR Brandin Cooks to a 1-year, $3M deal with $2M guaranteed. Cooks has been a consistent producer for a long time, but he's nearing the end...and that's fine! He's here as WR3 if the draft doesn't break right or, ideally, WR4 if it does.
6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. TE3 ideally; TE2 if necessary.
7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is old and hurt, but the Bears need some insurance here.
8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping a productive RFA.

Even without accounting for lower year-one cap hits and assuming equal AAVs, this free agency period uses $58.3M of net cap space, making this my most aggressive free agency spend to date. Notably, however, only Williams and Dalman carry significant cap ramifications into 2026. There is a lot of patching here.

NFL Draft

Unfortunately, despite that free agency explosion, there are still some notable needs on this roster, namely:

• LG / possible future LT
• RB1/2
• TE2
• WR3
• DE3/4

There's a heavy defensive flavor at the top of free agency, so expect to see a heavy offensive flavor to the draft class.

Bears trade #10 to Denver for #20, #52, #121, and a 2026 2nd

Penn State DE Abdul Carter and Michigan DT Mason Graham were gone. So I traded down.

#20: Texas A&M Shemar Stewart

This is a great outcome. If Stewart tests well at the Combine, he won't make it here given his massive frame. If he combines that size with quickness, he's the unicorn that every team always wants. But he's here in this mock. Yippee!

Marshall's Mike Green is also intriguing, but the size difference -- Stewart is nearly 40 pounds heavier -- is too compelling to ignore.

#39: North Dakota State G Grey Zabel

Luck is so nice when it's in your favor! Zabel getting here opens up the draft board in a way that no other player can. He's a Day One starter on the interior. If he proves to have sufficient length to kick out to LT, great! If he doesn't? Who cares? He might be Dalman's successor at C instead. Zabel is a great fit here if he lasts this long.

#41: Michigan TE Colston Loveland

Speaking of great fits...Loveland is the dream here. This is a class with three idyllic TEs: Penn State's Tyler Warren and Loveland as traditional, big-bodied TEs and Bowling Green's Harold Fannin Jr. as an H-back Swiss Army Knife. But Warren and Loveland are the preferred targets.

Bears trade #52 and #198 to Atlanta for #46

There's a very specific target here and a group of teams with big needs at this spot. Given this trade price, this is a good deal.

#46: Texas DT Alfred Collins

Collins is decidedly not a need here, but he is definitely one of my favorite players in this entire class. He reminds me a lot of DeForest Buckner. Admittedly, he has a ways to go to get there. But the ceiling is massive.

#72: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

This is a brutal spot with three players that I really like that fit the roster really well: Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea, Utah State WR Jalen Royals, and Winston. Ultimately, Winston's draft stock took a massive hit due to his partially torn ACL in early September. But an early September partial ACL tear means that Winston should be able to play a full rookie season, bringing his massive ceiling to the roster. He's the prudent choice here, especially because there are more WRs in the coming rounds that I like.

#121: UCF RB RJ Harvey

Harvey's flaws are voluminous. He's undersized at 5'8". His blocking is bad. He's not ever going to be a power back. I'm not even sure that he's an NFL RB right now.

So why the heck is he the pick here? Speed. Speed speed speed. Harvey is extremely fast and, thus, he's explosive at his best. The Bears need explosive talents on offense. Let's do it.

Bears trade RB D'Andre Swift to Los Angeles Chargers for #123

I'm guessing that Swift's trade value ranges from about pick #100 to pick #150. So, here we are in the middle. Trading Swift leaves $2.7M of dead cap money but frees up $6.7M more.

#123: UCONN OT Chase Lundt

Lundt isn't my kind of prospect. But there's so much that is seriously interesting here. He moves really well at 6'8". That alone piques my interest. I could see a future where he gets snaps as the 6th OL with regularity. I have no idea where his career goes. But I'm intrigued.

#149: Illinois WR Pat Bryant

I really wanted Colorado State WR Tory Horton to get here, but he surprisingly went at #147 to a Carolina team that had just drafted Jalen Royals earlier. Huh. No matter. Pat Bryant made it here and I like me some Pat Bryant.

#235: UNLV WR Ricky White

White is slight of frame, but comes with good speed and special teams expectations. That's a fine choice here.

#242: Jacksonville State G Clay Webb

Webb is a redshirt player who needs to add at least 15 pounds to have a chance to play in the NFL.

Here's the assembled roster:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Roschon Johnson, RJ Harvey, Ian Wheeler, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland, Austin Hooper

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Brandin Cooks, Pat Bryant, Tyler Scott, Ricky White

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Chase Lundt

OG (4): Brandon Scherff, Grey Zabel, Kiran Amegadjie, Clay Webb

C (2): Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Chase Young, Shemar Stewart, Austin Booker, Dominique Robinson

DT (5): Milton Williams, Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Alfred Collins, Zacch Pickens

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Kevin Winston Jr., Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's the PFF simulator screenshot:

Does this roster look better than my other recent mocks? I don't know. But it could be more in the vein of what Johnson wants, except at RB, where I really left this roster thin. Once the Bears decide to trade Swift, I'd expect another free agent RB to join the fold.

Nevertheless, I love the top five draftees here. They'd all be expected to play big roles in 2025 and come with exceptional ceilings. It would be fun watching these guys develop.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: OL Spending Spree Edition

No need for a lengthy introduction here. We're well into the offseason at this point. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like this one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut TE Gerald Everett and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. GM Ryan Poles will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left, but a year removed from paying a 5th rounder for him, the guess here is that Poles keeps Bates, possibly requesting that he take a modest pay cut that can be recouped by being active on gamedays.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same depth of options at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping that Ben Johnson is better than the last four!

Free Agency

OK, there actually is one big change here that is undeniably negative for the Bears: the NFL salary cap increased a good bit more than expected. The Bears previously enjoyed top-five cap space as a significant marginal advantage over the rest of the league, but with the new cap projection, the Bears figure to lose some of their ability to win free agency battles now that so many other teams picked up about $5M of space.

Estimating the base cap at $279M and factoring in the Bears' $5.1M of rollover cap from 2024, the Bears start with a cap number of $284.1M. Their top-51 contracts following the releases of Everett and Owens total $207M with $3.8M of dead cap bringing the total hit to $210.8M. That leaves $73.3M. Keeping $20M dry for the draft class, practice squad, and in-season moves is plenty conservative, so let's say they enter free agency with $53.3M of net cap space available for spending.

Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

Now that PFF has published contract projections, I'll utilize those below. The big change for this mock: ESPN has named the Bears as the top fit for both Kansas City G Trey Smith and Atlanta C Drew Dalman. Could the Bears really go to the top of the market at two interior OL spots? Let's see what the offseason looks like if they do.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $82M deal with $50M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of desperate need. This isn't complicated. Park Smith next to RT Darnell Wright and secure the right side as QB Caleb Williams develops. (I've long had Smith pegged at 4/$88M with $65M guaranteed. I think PFF is light.) It's worth noting that Smith has production and pedigree to fuel his free agency, but collegiate blood clots could scare some teams away just like they did during the Draft.
2. Sign C Drew Dalman to a 4-year, $46M deal with $27.5M guaranteed. This doesn't require the same level of bank breaking given Dalman's injury history.
3. Sign DT Levi Onwuzurike to a 2-year, $16.5M deal with $10M guaranteed. I have routinely mocked Philadelphia DT Milton Williams in this spot and PFF projects Williams for $21M on his next deal...per year! That'll be far too rich for Poles, so instead let's have Coach Johnson lure Onwuzurike to Chicago to join the rotation and add some pop. Onwuzurike is consistently productive, but he's got strikingly little game experience after sitting out his RS JR season at Washington during the pandemic and playing just 560 snaps in his first three NFL seasons combined. He's 27 and his 697 snaps in 2024 were really impressive, so perhaps his market ends up higher than this.
4. Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal. Barnett isn't a difference maker, but he's a solid citizen along a defensive line in need of some.
5. Sign OT Jedrick Wills to a 1-year, $3M deal. A reunion with Kevin Zeitler would've made sense were it not for Smith. Unfortunately, almost all of the top free agent interior offensive linemen play RG, so we're going to take an unconventional approach and following the Mekhi Becton plan, signing Wills to try him at LG. If he flops, so be it.
6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is coming off of a Lisfranc injury and he's 32, but he should be ready for 2025. He's a nice insurance policy for Brisker.
8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping an RFA.

The above spending utilizes about $47.8M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard, and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.

The Bears do have the tasty 39th pick from Carolina as the final piece from the Bryce Young trade, but this year's 4th rounder belongs to Buffalo thanks to the Austin Booker trade last year. With only four picks that can be reasonably counted on to produce 2025 starters, this is a tall task.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #10 and #241 to Cincinnati for #17, #49, and #81

My rule at #10 remains the same as last month: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham inexplicably slips to #10, make the pick and jump for joy. Otherwise, target a trade down. This is appropriate value as the additional 2nd and 3rd offer great value in spots where I really like this class.

#17: LSU OT Will Campbell

Huh. I did not see this coming. Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. was also available and I figured he stood a good chance to be the pick here. But someone always falls and, in this draft, it was Campbell. Perhaps teams didn't want to pick him higher than this if he's solidly a G on their board? Who cares! He's the perfect starter at LG who can project as a LT in year two and beyond.

#39: Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen

I'm very high on Umanmielen. He made a good choice to come back to school. He'd be a great fit on this roster.

#41: Texas DT Alfred Collins

This will feel too early for Collins for some folks. For me, it's not. He is a potential star with a unique physique that plays an essential spot. Obviously I would've preferred getting him later, but I couldn't risk him coming off the board between here and #49.

#49: Notre Dame S Xavier Watts

Had Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery made it here, he would've been the pick. But he didn't, so plug-and-play S Watts it is. He's a tremendous consolation prize for a safety room that has both Brisker and Byard in their walk years.

#72: West Virginia OT Wyatt Milum

I still think Milum is going to go in the 1st round by late April. Milum is so darn good and he's ready to be a plus player right away. There's talk of him kicking inside to G. Obviously he's only the pick if the Bears are confident that at least one of Campbell or Milum can play LT by 2026. Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea also warrants considerable consideration here.

For a team that has been so light on OL talent for so long, just get Milum in the building and figure it out later.

#81: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

The options were voluminous: Savaiinaea, South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori, Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr., and Kentucky DT Deone Walker are all very attractive options. But, ultimately, Winston is too good to pass up here. Winston had a 1st-round grade before a partial ACL tear ended his season in early September. The Bears can afford to bring him along slowly, if necessary, but he should be at full speed in camp.

Bears Trade S Kevin Byard to Las Vegas for #106

I don't know if this is fair value for Byard, but it seems a little rich to me. But, with Watts and Winston joining Brisker and with Diggs in house as a security blanket, Byard turns back into draft capital while also taking most of his cap hit to Vegas, leaving just $1.5M of dead cap behind and generating $7M of cap space.

#106: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

Nice! Walker would've been good at #81. At #106, this is tremendous. He's absolutely massive and is an ideal 1-tech if he continues to develop. In this DT room, he gets time to grow.

#148: Illinois WR Pat Bryant

Bryant doesn't have star potential, but he does bring solid citizen vibes. The Bears could use that in the WR room that desperately lacks depth behind Moore and Odunze.

#196: Texas Tech TE Jalin Conyers

Conyers is a great athlete in a somewhat undersized frame. He brings positional versatility playing in the backfield and on the edge, something that is ideal for a player in this spot on this roster.

#234: LSU WR Kyren Lacy

Important caveat: PFF is much lower on Lacy than most other services. It's fair to wonder why. Don't focus too much on Lacy specifically. Instead, think "possible WR/RB/TE contributor" in this spot.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Jalin Conyers

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Pat Bryant, Tyler Scott, Kyren Lacy, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Wyatt Milum

OG (4): Trey Smith, Will Campbell, Jedrick Wills, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2): Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Prince Umanmielen, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Derek Barnett

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Levi Onwuzurike, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, Deone Walker

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Xavier Watts, Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR room is in deep trouble with an injury to Moore or Odunze. The TE room needs Kmet to stay healthy and productive. The RB room is hilariously thin.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I say that every time, but this is the truest example. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features five defensive players among the top seven picks.

This is definitely my new favorite mock; that would've been true even swapping out Campbell for Banks. I nailed my goals on both lines in this mock. That's a recipe for success.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: End of January 2025 Edition

The last time I ran a mock offseason, the Bears hadn't won since mid-October. They eventually did win again, but not until the calendar flipped to 2025. Yikes. Thankfully, there's only one football game left in the 2024 season before all 32 teams turn their focus to the offseason. We don't need to wait.

I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like this one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut TE Gerald Everett and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. GM Ryan Poles will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left, but a year removed from paying a 5th rounder for him, the guess here is that Poles keeps Bates.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same depth of options at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping that Ben Johnson is better than the last four!

Free Agency

The Bears figure to have about $66.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

Now that PFF has published contract projections, I'll utilize those below.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $82M deal with $50M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of desperate need. This isn't complicated. Park Smith next to RT Darnell Wright and secure the right side as QB Caleb Williams develops. (I've long had Smith pegged at 4/$88M with $65M guaranteed. I think PFF is light.)
2. Sign DT Levi Onwuzurike to a 2-year, $16.5M deal with $10M guaranteed. I have routinely mocked Philadelphia DT Milton Williams in this spot and PFF projects Williams for $21M on his next deal...per year! That'll be far too rich for Poles, so instead let's have Coach Johnson lure Onwuzurike to Chicago to join the rotation and add some pop.
3. Sign OG James Daniels to a 1-year, $5.5M deal with $3M guaranteed. A reunion with Kevin Zeitler would've made sense were it not for Smith. Unfortunately, almost all of the top free agent interior offensive linemen play RG, so the Bears bring Daniels back after a few years in Pittsburgh. Daniels admittedly played RG for the Steelers, but he began his career at LG and C in Chicago, performing well. He's still just 27, so this is a nice flyer as he returns from an Achilles injury and allows players to develop behind him without being forced into action.
4. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $6M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he improved significantly at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag, especially given the hefty payday likely coming Dalman's way.
5. Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal. Barnett isn't a difference maker, but he's a solid citizen along a defensive line in need of some.
6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is coming off of a Lisfranc injury and he's 32, but he should be ready for 2025. He's a nice insurance policy for Brisker.
8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping an RFA.

The above spending utilizes about $50.5M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard, and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.

The Bears do have the tasty 39th pick from Carolina as the final piece from the Bryce Young trade, but this year's 4th rounder belongs to Buffalo thanks to the Austin Booker trade last year. With only four picks that can be reasonably counted on to produce 2025 starters, this is a tall task.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #10 and a 2026 5th to Seattle for #18, #50, and a 2026 2nd

My rule at #10 remains the same as last month: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham inexplicably slips to #10, make the pick and jump for joy. Otherwise, target a trade down. This is appropriate value as the additional 2nds are quite attractive.

#18: Georgia DE Mykel Williams

Williams is a perfect addition to this roster. A 4-3 DE that fits the roster well and offers top-flight projection.

#39: South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders

I really like Sanders. He's got a tremendous first step and a class 3-technique body.

#41: East Carolina CB Shavon Revel

I really hated how the board broke in this draft. There was a huge early run on OL, leaving none of my favorite targets in the 1st or 2nd rounds. So, Revel it is!

Bears Trade CB Tyrique Stevenson to Pittsburgh for #85

Stevenson is Dan Quinn in Atlanta after 28-3. It's not going to work for him in Chicago. So, especially with Revel on board, Stevenson ships out.

Bears Trade #50 to Pittsburgh for #53 and #121

It's a small drop and my targets should be there still. That said, I was hoping that Penn State S Kevin Winston would be one of my options; he didn't make it.

#53: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery

Ersery is slipping some in PFF's eyes. I don't care. I love him as a prospect, enough to take Ersery over a bevy of other prospects I like even more like Iowa S Sebastian Castro, Texas DT Alfred Collins, and especially Notre Dame S Xavier Watts.

Oh well: the Bears need a big-time developmental OL option.

#72: Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins

Georgia LB Jalon Walker was still on the board; if that was remotely possible, he'd be the pick here.

Instead, though, it's Higgins. A young replacement for Keenan Allen with whom Williams can develop rapport over the coming years.

#85: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson

I'm not hunting for a back in this draft, but I can't pass up Henderson at this point given the quality players added before him. Had either of the two players drafted ahead of him made it here -- South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori and Georgia OG Tate Ratledge -- they would've been the pick instead.

#121: Oregon TE Terrance Ferguson

This is an easy choice in this spot. Ferguson can play a meaningful role right away, and Hooper isn't a long-term fit for the squad, so it's essential to find a plausible TE2 in this draft at this point. Ferguson and Ole Miss TE Caden Prieskorn would both work.

#148: Iowa OG Connor Colby

Colby can reach and run, but he's undersized. So, give him a year to put on another 10 pounds and see if he can bulk up to hold up enough in pass protection. He adds another body with Daniels and Amegadjie to raise the floor in the interior.

#197: Tennessee WR Dont'e Thornton

A key recruiting loss for Penn State a few years ago, Thornton has a great frame and little chance to stick as a long-term NFL option. But there's a good starter kit here.

#235: Kansas CB Cobee Bryant

Bryant is ludicrously light in the 170s, but it's worth a shot here to see if he can bulk up enough to stay on the field.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Terrance Ferguson

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Jayden Higgins, Tyler Scott, Dont'e Thornton, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Aireontae Ersery

OG (4): Trey Smith, James Daniels, Kiran Amegadjie, Connor Colby

C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Mykel Williams, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Derek Barnett

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Levi Onwuzurike, T.J. Sanders, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Shavon Revel, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Cobee Bryant

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Jaylon Jones, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR room is in deep trouble with an injury to Moore or Odunze. The OL is riddled with injury histories. There are a lot of players who need to develop.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features three straight defensive players to start before throwing the QB a bone (he got some help via free agency, too).

This is not my favorite mock. I nailed my goals on the defensive line, but I'm bummed to have missed on the 1st round OTs. But Ersery really takes the edge off.