Post-Playoffs Chicago Bears 2026 Mock Offseason

After a few days of feeling bummed about the end of the riveting 2025 Bears season with a home overtime loss to the Rams, I find myself feeling ecstatic about where things go from here. The 2026 Bears will face a much tougher schedule and need to navigate a brutally difficult division once again, but with Caleb Williams surrounded by a gaggle of similarly young, similarly talented offensive players, the sky is the limit.

So let's build those 2026 Bears!

Internal Decisions

As with before, Ben Johnson will be the head coach, and we'll assume that the coordinators remain the same.

Turning to the roster, the Bears find themselves in a salary cap crunch for the first time in a long time. I always allocate $4M to the Practice Squad, allocate $5M of net cap space for signing the Draft class, and assume that the Bears need $10M for in-season maneuvering. With the Practice Squad accounted for, the Bears currently have $321.9M in spending against an adjusted cap of $309.4M -- yikes! They're $12.5M over the cap and need to get to $15M under in order to sign draftees and operate during the 2026 season. Thankfully, there are a lot of ways to adjust their cap situation and the 2027 roster figures to have a much larger cushion, so kicking some cap hits down the road would be fine. So let's play!

Instead, there are a few players who offer meaningful cap savings if they are jettisoned and a few players who seem ripe for contract restructures/extensions. Namely:

1. Cut LB Tremaine Edmunds
1. Edmunds is a solid player. He's roughly an average starter. He's being paid as a top-10 LB. There's no trade value. He will be cut, removing his $17,437,500 cap hit while leaving only $2,437,500 of dead money behind.
2. Trade TE Cole Kmet
1. Kmet remains a solid player. Unlike Edmunds, there should be a ready market for Kmet. He's wildly overpaid as a TE2 with an $11.6M cap hit in 2026, but for a TE1? That's totally fine and he'll be just 27. I'm not sure what his exact market should be, but I assume that he'd return a 4th or 5th. I figure that the Chargers or the Jets make sense as potential targets, pairing Kmet with a younger TE seeking to establish himself. Kmet's acquiring team would acquire him on a two-year, $20M deal with no guaranteed money left; he'll leave behind a $3.2M dead cap hit.
3. Restructure WR D.J. Moore
1. Yes, I'm aware that Moore blew it on the final Bears offensive play of the season. Had he continued running to the open space that his route surely called for, the Bears likely kick a field goal on the next play and head to Seattle. Moore also hasn't exactly thrived in competing for targets with recent arrivals Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland. And yet, when pressed into true #1 WR territory again late in the season, he starred against Green Bay twice and reminded everyone that he can be an ace. He's an ultra-willing blocker who plays hurt. He fits the identity of what Ben Johnson wants. Trading Moore would remove his $28.5M cap number, leaving just $12M of dead cap behind in 2026 and nothing in future years. But I'd rather keep him. So, let's convert $16M of his $23,485,000 base salary into a restructure bonus. This increases his dead cap hit in future years, but it also reduces his 2026 cap hit from $28.5M down to $15,485,000. It also increases his 2027 and 2028 cap hits to $32.5M each and his 2029 hit to $28.5M. Functionally, this guarantees his deal through 2027. Hardly onerous.
4. Extend C Drew Dalman
1. Dalman is a perfect fit for the Bears offense and his addition to the offensive line completely flipped the script on what had been a decade of futility at the pivot. So let's keep him around. The Bears give Dalman a two-year, $30M extension with a $4M signing bonus. As part of the deal, they convert $8M of his 2026 base salary into a signing bonus. Dalman gets $4M of additional money in 2026, guarantees his 2027 deal, and functionally guarantees his 2028 job. It's a great deal for a C, and it frees up some key space for the Bears, reducing his 2026 cap hit from $14M to $6M.
5. Restructure DE Montez Sweat
1. As with Moore, this one is easy. The 2026 Bears need Sweat. He's still a good player. I'd be open to a modest extension, effectively adding another year or two at his $25M annual salary. Instead, we'll convert $10M of his $20.9M base salary to a restructure bonus, reducing his cap figure from $25,085,294 to $20,085,294.
2. This does increase Sweat's 2027 cap number by $5M. I'm not particularly concerned about that because Dayo Odeyingbo only leaves $2M behind against the cap in 2027 if he's cut next year.
6. Cut LB Amen Ogbongbemiga
1. Ogbongbemiga was a plus special teamer, but his body is failing him. Cutting him removes his $2.625M cap hit while leaving just $375K of dead money behind.
7. Cut RB Roschon Johnson
1. Roschon appears out of favor with the current regime. His cut doesn't functionally save any cap space.

Internal free agency offers three likely targets:

1. Keep ERFA OT Theo Benedet
1. This one is easy. $1,005,000 for a swing OT? Definitely.
2. Sign LB D'Marco Jackson
1. I'm not certain on Jackson's market. He played 370 very good snaps for the Bears, especially late in the season. But he rode the pine when both Edwards and Edmunds were healthy. I think he's a starter and that Dennis Allen is most likely to give him that shot. So let's say he signs for $4.5M over two years with the chance to start.
3. Sign S Kevin Byard
1. Man, I'm going to miss Jaquan Brisker if he leaves. Brisker solidified what had been a truly awful spot when he arrived from Penn State, and he continually produced when healthy. Alas, his numerous concussions make him very difficult to extend. Enter Byard. Byard is old, turning 33 in training camp this year. But man, he is both durable and productive having played north of 1,000 snaps every year since his rookie year. Spotrac projects him for $15.7M over two years. Let's say he gets a $5M signing bonus, a $3.5M base salary in 2026, and a $6.2M base salary in 2027. That yields a $6M cap figure in 2026.
4. Sign DE Daniel Hardy
1. Hardy is an RFA, not an ERFA. For argument's sake, let's say he comes back for the league minimum.
5. Sign G Jordan McFadden
1. As with Hardy, McFadden is an RFA, not an ERFA. For argument's sake, let's say he comes back for the league minimum after stunningly starting against the Rams.
6. Sign S Jaylon Jones
1. Jones is no star, but he's a playable body on special teams and he should be cheap. Let's assume that he signs for the veteran's minimum and counts for the minimum against the cap, too

The net result: oof, there are some holes...but the Bears are now $31M under the cap.

Free Agency

Last year, the approach in free agency was clear: add talent in the interior offensive line and along the defensive line. Enter Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Grady Jarrett before the Draft weekend additions of Ozzy Trapilo, Shemar Turner, and Luke Newman. The additions on the offensive line were dramatically more impactful than the defensive additions. So it goes.

This year, the roster needs a few pieces, but it doesn't need nearly as many as last year. Thoughts:

1. Pass rush is desperately needed. This is the biggest hole on the roster. It must be solved. I do think that the Bears could/should carry six DEs and four DTs. If the top four DEs are Montez Sweat, Austin Booker, Dayo Odeyingbo, and a top new addition, there will be the ability to kick Odeyingbo inside in pass rushing situations alongside Shemar Turner and/or Grady Jarrett.
2. Safeties -- yikes! Even though Byard is back, he and Jones are the only safeties on the roster. Time for more bodies.
3. Cornerback looks stuffed. If Zah Frazier and Terell Smith are both on track, there are six quality CBs already targeted for the roster. Cool! Lost in Nahshon Wright's wonderful surprise season (that really petered out at the end) was a tremendous rebound season from Tyrique Stevenson. His strip against Dallas and diving interception against Las Vegas showed that he meant business. He looks ready for a big role.
4. What to do about LT? Trapilo was a godsend. His patellar exploded. Kiran Amegadjie lost the year to injury. Can Benedet or Amegadjie cover LT? 
5. Who replaces Kmet as TE2? After Gerald Everett flopped in the role, the Bears need to replace Kmet with someone useful.

I'm deeply curious to see what Poles elects to do at LT. For now, I'm going to assume that the 2026 LT is on the roster already, whether that's Benedet, Amegadjie, or even Thuney. So, instead, let's hunt for TE2 and pass rush help. With roughly $16M of net cap space to spend, we're going big-game hunting here.

1. Sign TE Taysom Hill
1. Boy, this would be fun, eh? Hill follows Allen to Chicago to play a TE3/gadget role for Ben Johnson, who surely falls in love with Hill in a hurry. Spotrac projects Hill for just $2.1M on a one-year deal.
2. Sign DE ????????
1. Spotrac projects the following deals for the top DEs:
1. Trey Hendrickson: Two years, $51M
1. Below-average run grades, elite pass rushing
2. Season-ending hip injury in 2025; required surgery
2. Odafe Oweh: Three years, $58M
1. Plus pass rusher, average run defender
3. Jaelan Phillips: Three years, $52M
1. Good at everything
2. ACL and Achilles injuries in 2023 and 2024
4. Khalil Mack: One year, $18.4M
1. Pass rush grade is faltering and he's old; run defense is great
5. Joey Bosa: Two years, $27.5M
1. Elite pass rushing; lengthy injury history
6. Arnold Ebiketie: Three years, $27M
1. Average run defender, good pass rusher
7. Dre'Mont Jones: Two years, $20.7M
1. Below-average run defender, above-average pass rusher
2. There are two distinct approaches that the Bears can take here:
1. Sign the most complete DE possible; OR
2. Sign the best pass rusher, either cheaply is he sticks at run defense or expensively if he's good at everything.
3. It's time to put all of that cap maneuvering to work: Sign DE Odafe Oweh. Oweh possesses the kind of ultra-athletic profile that Poles loves, posting a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine with ludicrous length via his 34.5" arms. With Odeyingbo headed for the chopping block in 2027 and Sweat perhaps following thereafter, Oweh comes in on target for the DE1 job as soon as next year. Let's say he gets $47M guaranteed via a $12M signing bonus with base salaries of $10M in Y1, $17M in Y2, and $19M in Y3. That would yield cap numbers of $14M in Y1, $21M in Y2, and $23M in Y4. I have to suspect that Oweh's deal with end up heftier than this, but we'll roll with this for now.

Draft

With this free agency period, the only absolute necessities are finding a starting safety next to Byard, a playable TE, and a rotation DT. Cool!

Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to Los Angeles Chargers for #123

As mentioned above.

Bears trade #25 and #163 to New England for #30 and #62

Whew. This was tricky. I wanted to stay at #25 and draft Miami RT Francis Mauigoa following his inexplicable slide. Or Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq. Or Washington WR Denzel Boston. But then this trade materialized and dang, I had to do it.

#30: Bears draft Georgia DT Christen Miller

Miller is a good prospect. He doesn't look like a star in the making, but he does look like the interior anchor of an elite run defense along with possessing enough pass rush upside to be a good pick here.

#57: Bears draft Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr.

I don't love taking an LB this high, but with both Hill and Missouri's Josiah Trotter on the board, it seemed prudent as there's a huge drop off after those two. Hill should start early in his career and possesses the kind of ceiling that Tremaine Edmunds did, too.

Bears trade #62, #239, and #241 to Las Vegas for #67 and #102

Once again, there were a number of very attractive options on the board here. Turning one possible starter into two possible starters was the way to go.

#67: Bears draft Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers

The Bears need a blocking TE. Stowers is not that. Stowers is, however, an elite receiving target. He probably needs to add 15 pounds of mass and learn how to block from scratch, but the pass-catching upside is absolutely impossible to ignore. And Stowers took a remarkably interesting path to being the 2025 Mackey Award winner, starting his college career as a backup QB at Texas A&M before transferring to New Mexico State and ultimately Vanderbilt. This is a big challenge to Ben Johnson. Stowers is worth the risk given his immense upside.

#89: Bears draft Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

My biggest risk was hoping that Wheatley would make it here. Pfew! I think he's a star in the making. I don't think he'll actually last this long on Draft weekend. But dang, he'd be a great fit. He's a turnover machine.

#102: Bears draft Texas Tech DT Skyler Gill-Howard

Gill-Howard's story is awesome. He was a Division II walk-on LB with a wrestling background. He's undersize at 6'1", 290 lbs., but man, he is quick for a big man. He contrasts nicely with Miller. In an offseason where rushing the passer is paramount, Gill-Howard fits the bill.

I had to pass on Penn State RB Kaytron Allen to make this pick. It hurt.

#123: Bears draft Texas S Michael Taaffe

Another former walk-on draftee? Yup! Taaffe has captain written all over him. So even though he's a bit undersized and not an athletic standout, he looks like a keeper. He played a lot of football at Texas, too, so if the Bears are going to rely on rookies at safety, it helps that Wheatley and Taaffe have both played a ton.

#129: TCU WR Eric McAlister

The last time I took McAlister in a mock draft, it was at #207! Well, he's climbing. McAlister still comes with some off-field baggage, but he's got the body of an NFL WR and enjoyed a massive season this year for the Horned Frogs (72/1,190/10).

The resulting roster looks very good, though there are spots available for veteran free agents and undrafted rookies.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Taysom Hill, Eli Stowers, FREE AGENT

WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, Eric McAlister

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Kiran Amegadjie, Theo Benedet

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Jordan McFadden

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Luke Newman

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Odafe Oweh, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Christen Miller, Skyler Gill-Howard

ILB (1): D'Marco Jackson

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Anthony Hill Jr., Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5):  Kevin Byard, Zakee Wheatley, Jaylon Jones, Michael Taaffe, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Proof from PFF below:

Skipping the OL and RB rooms in this Draft makes me uncomfortable. But dang, I love the additions on defense and Stowers and McAlister both offer quality pass catching options. In retrospect, I should've gone bigger on the TE2 spot between either Austin Hooper or Noah Fant. Alas, that's not how free agency and the Draft work.

I ended up $15.7M under the salary cap, so I probably kept more dry powder than necessary, though rolling that unused cap space over to 2027 isn't a problem. Some of those dollars will probably be spent on RB3 heading into training camp.

Regardless, this team has a ton of added speed on defense with a bunch of new pass rushing juice up front. The passing offense gets a nice boost, too, with the arrivals of Stowers and McAlister. But let's be honest: Oweh's addition is the one that moves the needle here and the risk taken at LT -- that the 2026 LT is already on the roster -- will probably define the 2026 season.

Apologies Abound Following One of the Best Bears Wins of My Lifetime

As the third quarter ended last night and the fourth quarter began, things looked dire for the Chicago Bears. Even the little breath of hope provided by Devan Duvernay's 37-yard punt return in the final minute of the third quarter was largely suffocated when the ensuing possession managed just two yards across seven plays, culminating in a 51-yard Cairo Santos field goal that turned a two-touchdown deficit into...well, still a two-touchdown deficit.

But some of us had seen enough of Caleb Williams dating to his time at Gonzaga College High School, Oklahoma, USC, and with the Bears both this year and last to have hope. Read the thread. However, while that thread ended with hope, it began with the sobering reality of my conscious lifetime as a Bears fan: absolute domination by Green Bay. The Bears were just 15-50 against the Packers from 1994 through Friday with only two quarterbacks having even achieved three wins against Green Bay: both Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton at 3-1. The other Bears QBs from 1994 until Caleb Williams arrived -- excluding Grossman and Orton -- went just 9-48. My God.

But Caleb is here. And everything that could be different is different.

I was ecstatic about the ability to get Caleb to Chicago and have loved riding the wave with him. There are plenty of other players about whom I was right for the 2025 Bears, including but not limited to:

• Luther Burden. He had an imperfect game, but he made a trio of catches and has already reached "gravity" status: on the final Bears' offensive play of the game, Caleb's fake screen to Burden drew two Packers defenders up to the line, allowing DJ Moore to run free for the game-winning score. Love it.
• Rome Odunze, Kyler Gordon, and Jaylon Johnson. All three are good. All three are clearly playing hurt, especially the two DBs. Great efforts.
• Cole Kmet. Man. Kmet just can't get it done as TE2. His blocking remains adequate, but he's basically a non-factor as a pass catcher at this point, still managing to drop a ball in every game. Ugh.
• Ben Johnson. I was soooooo excited for Johnson's arrival, but he's been dramatically better than I even hoped.

Despite the above, I was wrong on a bunch of Bears players to whom I owe an apology. I expected some of these players to struggle when they were acquired whereas others I expected very little of last night. All of them played their roles in making last night's game an all-time great Bears memory. So, in order of intensity, here are the eight Bears to whom I owe an apology.

8. WR Olamide Zaccheus. I was excited for the Zaccheus signing. He was a competent slot receiver who handled a big workload in Washington and seemed like a nice addition for Caleb. In the early part of the season, Zaccheus produced reasonably well. But as the season went along, it became patently obvious that Zaccheus needed to take a back seat to Burden, an emerging star. So, I lamented Zaccheus' snaps yesterday, even yelling out "why?" when I saw him on the field in the red zone...seconds before he caught the club's penultimate touchdown. Sorry, Olamide.

7. DT Chris Williams. Williams is no star. I saw him as an egregious overpay at $3.263M this year on his RFA tender, and I hoped that he'd be inactive on most gamedays behind Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, and Andrew Billings. Well, Jarrett struggled mightily in the early part of the season, Billings looked washed, and Turner tore his Achilles in November. The result? 219 nearly average regular season snaps followed by 11 more last night. Williams isn't good, but he isn't bad and that helped last night. Sorry, Chris.

6. DT Grady Jarrett. My big concern in March was that Jarrett was washed, resulting in his new contract being a massive overpay. That concern was justified: Jarrett looks washed and his contract is a significant overpay. However, let's be fair: Jarrett got off to a brutal start and struggled upon returning from injury in October, but he has played considerably better since then. He's not the impact pass rusher that the Bears need on the inside, but his play has been very solid for the last month and a half. 59 quality snaps against the Packers earns an apology. Sorry, Grady.

5. RB D'Andre Swift. Damn. Swift looked like a brutal overpay in free agency after Ryan Poles struck out on Saquon Barkley. And year one? Yikes. Lots of players were worse last year, but Swift was bad. In 2025 though? Swift has made a starring turn, producing a career year at age 26. He has run so much harder down the stretch, fighting for extra yardage with game-changing results. Most notably, he turned a third and four quick out with 1:54 remaining into a 23-yard gain to put the Bears in field goal territory. Huge, huge play. Sorry, D'Andre!

4. LT Ozzy Trapilo. I just couldn't understand drafting Trapilo in April. The Bears used the #10 pick in 2023 Draft on Darnell Wright and got an All-Pro performer. Trapilo played LT at Boston College in 2022 and struggled. So, he moved to RT for 2023 and 2024 and produced good results. That's cool...but a swing tackle in the second round? No thanks. Well, Trapilo didn't look like he'd play much in 2025 for the first month and a half of the season, only playing 40 brutal snaps in Las Vegas. But then Braxton Jones continued to struggle and got hurt and his backup, Theo Benedet, also got hurt. Trapilo entered the starting lineup in Week 12 and never looked back, rounding into form as a plus LT during his rookie year. Incredible. What a performance. His patellar injury -- of unconfirmed severity -- is devastating not just for the 2025 season but also for the 2026 year and possibly Trapilo's career. But being the hero that he is, Trapilo injured his patellar but hopped off the field on one leg to ensure that the Bears didn't lose a timeout inside the two-minute warning, becoming a fan favorite in the process. Wow! Sorry, Ozzy!

3. RG Jonah Jackson. I absolutely despised the Jackson trade and the post-trade extension made things even worse. Then the season rolled around and Jackson was a one-man wrecking crew in the opening week, torpedoing the offense with a dreadful showing against Minnesota. Jackson had a nightmarish Week 18 against Detroit, too, but the 15 games in between? Jackson was very good, a durable, plus starter on the inside. He's no star, but for those of us expecting a dumpster fire, Jackson's above-average season was a revelation. Sorry, Jonah!

2. TE Colston Loveland. My disappointment on Draft night was crippling. I couldn't believe that the Bears passed up Penn State TE Tyler Warren, coming off of one of the greatest collegiate TE season of all time, in favor of a Michigan Wolverine with a bum shoulder. Loveland then performed poorly in his first two games before injuring his hip in Week Three after playing just six snaps, then missing Week Four as a result. The early returns were dreadful. And to make matters worse, by the time Loveland caught two balls on Monday Night Football against Washington on October 13th -- running his season total to five grabs for 54 yards and no scores -- Warren had posted 29 catches for 370 yards and two touchdowns. *Gulp* Well, thankfully for Loveland and the Bears, the season continued. Loveland became a more important part of the offense and then played leading roles in a pair of season-defining wins, grabbing six balls for 118 yards and two scores (including the game winner) in Cincinnati before running roughshod over the Packers last night. As much as it pains me to say it, Loveland looks like a superstar and -- ugh -- an even better fit with Caleb than Warren would have been. Sorry, Colston!

1. K Cairo Santos. As if this could have been anyone else. I despite Santos for a reason as old as time: he's just like me! I was a weak-legged kicker who could kick the ball straight but not drive it powerfully. His inadequate leg strength in prior seasons figured to torpedo more meaningful games this year if Johnson successfully turned around the operation. And he did! It is but a distant memory now, but way back in Week One, Santos missed a 50-year attempt against Minnesota on the first play of the fourth quarter before JJ McCarthy led three touchdown drives. Had Santos made that kick, Odunze's late touchdown catch that brought the Bears within three would've tied the game. He nearly did it again in Minneapolis, missing wide from 45 yards out in the fourth before hitting from 48 on the game's final play to win the game. His kickoffs have been inconsistent, though his most successful kicks -- low line drives that bounce through the landing zone -- are fantastic.

Regardless, when the weather turned cold, Santos got hot. In particular, his 47-yarder against Pittsburgh was the difference in that game, his perfect day against Green Bay on December 20th got that game to overtime, and his perfect day yesterday was impressive enough on its own...but when contrasted with the disastrous performance from Brandon McManus, Santos and his low-trajectory kicks were crucial. Had Santos missed any of his five kicks, Green Bay would've been able to tie or win the game with a McManus field goal. But whereas McManus hooked a field goal and an extra point while pushing another field goal, Santos nailed his kicks. Had Cody Parkey made his final kick as a Bear in January 2019, the playoff victory drought would've been much shorter. But Parkey, rather famously, double-doinked that season away. Santos delivered, as he has almost all season. I'm surprised. But kudos. Sorry, Cairo!

I've been really underwhelmed by Gervon Dexter this year and frustrated by Tremaine Edmunds over the past month or so. Perhaps they'll combine for five sacks against the Rams!

One More Pre-Playoffs Chicago Bears Mock 2026 Offseason

Earlier, I went through a full mock offseason. But a single mock draft is always so underwhelming, so here's another mock draft with the yielded roster assuming the same free agency period with signings of S Jaquan Brisker, TE Noah Fant, and LB D'Marco Jackson (more detail here).

#29: Bears draft Clemson DE T.J. Parker
The true best-case scenario. Parker and Oregon's Matayo Uiagalelei are the most likely gets at #29. Parker is the dream, even though he isn't quite as tall and quite as long as Dennis Allen wants, he's a plug and play three-down DE given his ability to stop the run.

#61: Bears draft Oregon S Dillon Thieneman
Thieneman continually makes it into this late-2nd round territory and I just don't get it. He looks like a star. He's a complete player. If he was 6-2, I think he'd go in the top half of the 1st round. For now, I'll be ecstatic taking him here instead.

There were good DT options here and there won't be later, but Thieneman is too good to pass up here.

#93: Bears draft Florida State DT Darrell Jackson Jr.
I had to pass on Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to make this pick, but I think that's OK. Jackson is fun. His athletic profile is outrageous at 6'5, 337 lbs. with a 7-2 wingspan. I'm not certain how good Jackson is at the moment, but he's a good run defender now in a physique. It's worth the shot here.

Bears trade #124, #207, #242, and #248 to Denver for #108
This is a lot of depth to surrender. But, given the roster construction at hand, it's worthwhile to get...

#108: Bears draft Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez
Rodriguez is an incredibly fun prospect. He was an elite college player against the run and the pass, and he has enough measurables to assume that he can start in the NFL despite average speed. But the best part of the profile? He was a QB at Virginia before transferring to Texas Tech to become a LB. He reads the field exceptionally well. Oh wait; the actual best part of the profile? He's the spiritual successor to the Peanut Punch. Rodriguez must be a Bear.

Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to New York Jets for #139
Referenced in the earlier blog post, this is needed for cap space.

#139: Bears draft Texas S Michael Taaffe
Taaffe has a really interesting profile. He's way underweight at 190 lbs. But he's overcome that at Texas, brings tons of special teams value, and his primary limitation -- tackling in the box -- is the primary strength of Brisker and Thieneman. Taaffe can play off of those guys well, even serving as Kyler Gordon's backup in the slot. He'd be a nice roster fit.

#168: Bears draft Georgia TE Lawson Luckie
Luckie isn't a great prospect. He's a subpar blocking TE in an offense that definitely wants its TEs to block. But he's a strong receiving target and can serve as a quality red zone receiving option as he develops the rest of his game. I needed to give Ben Johnson something in this Draft!

Proof:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Noah Fant, Lawson Luckie, FREE AGENT

WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, FREE AGENT

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet, FREE AGENT

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Luke Newman

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy, T.J. Parker

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Darrell Jackson Jr, FREE AGENT

ILB (2): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson

OLB (4): Amen Ogbongbemiga, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite, Jacob Rodriguez

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5):  Jaquan Brisker, Dillon Thieneman, Michael Taaffe, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

I never know how these mocks are going to go when I start. But this one offers a really nice contrast to the one in the prior post. That mock featured tons of depth additions across the roster, but the combination of Parker and Thieneman at the top of this class is just better. I could've gone a few different directions in the 3rd round, but I'm increasingly convinced that the Bears need to add a mid-round DT prospect to pour some extra juice into that room.

Enjoy!

Chicago Bears Mock 2026 Offseason: Looking Ahead Before the Playoffs

This blog and its writer will shift focus exclusively to the NFL playoffs next week. This is a strange feeling. At this point in the year, I'm normally locked in on free agency and digging into draft prep. But no. This year, it'll be all about the Packers, Rams, 49ers, or Seahawks.

So, before next week starts, here's my first real look to the 2026 Bears.

Internal Decisions

Thankfully, the 2026 Bears have no questions at the top: Ben Johnson will be the head coach. Nice! It's plausible that Declan Doyle and/or Dennis Allen could leave for promotions elsewhere, but for now, we'll assume that the coaching staff remains the same.

Turning to the roster, the Bears find themselves in a salary cap crunch for the first time in a long time. Spotrac shows the roster at $300.9M of spending against an adjusted cap of $309.4M, but that's before (i) a practice squad, (ii) signing the Draft class, and (iii) filling out the remaining unfilled roster spots with minimum-salary players. Functionally, the Bears are $14.4M over the 2026 cap before cutting players and/or restructuring deals; this also doesn't leave the roughly $10M of cap space that teams like to leave for in-season roster churn. Additionally, there's no Nate Davis or Gerald Everett on this roster, a floundering player with a big cap number but minimal dead cap left behind when cut.

Instead, there are a few players who offer meaningful cap savings if they are jettisoned. Namely:

• LB Tremaine Edmunds: $17.4M cap number, $2.4M dead cap
• TE Cole Kmet: $11.6M cap number, $3.2M dead cap
• RB D'Andre Swift: $8.8M cap number, $1.3M dead cap

Edmunds has had a solid season, but nothing close to a $15M net season given the market value for LBs. He figures to be cut, creating an opening next to TJ Edwards. Swift is more likely to receive an extension than be cut at this point after a very impressive season. Kmet is tricky. He's underwhelming, but an $8.4M net cap number isn't outrageous and the TE market is sparse. I wonder if Kmet might get a modest extension that lowers his cap number. TE is simply too important to the Ben Johnson offense to get thin at that spot. Unfortunately, cap needs dictate Kmet moving on. But unlike Edmunds, Kmet should have market value on a one-year, $10M deal which is what an acquiring team would obtain. We'll say Kmet gets shipped out for a 5th-round pick.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Bears feature two players from the 2023 Draft class likely to earn Proven Performance Escalator pay bumps in DT Gervon Dexter and CB Tyrique Stevenson. Dexter has underwhelmed this year after looking like an ascending player, but he's going to stick around in a starting capacity, especially given his remaining upside as a pass rusher. Stevenson has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season after a disastrous 2024, buried in the shadow of a breakout season by Nahshon Wright. Both Dexter and Stevenson will see their base salaries jump from $1.6M to $3.5M next year, adding $3.8M against the cap.

Noah Sewell was likely headed for a release, but his Achilles injury complicates the expected cap savings if he remains unable to play in 2026. For now, we'll assume that he stays on the roster even if he's only available to play on the back half of the schedule.

For now, let's assume minimal movement:

• Edmunds cut ($15M net cap savings, $2.4M dead cap)
• Swift stays on his current deal (no cap change)
• Kmet is traded for a 5th-round pick
• Dexter and Stevenson stay, receiving their PPEs ($3.8M net cap addition)
• RB Roschon Johnson cut ($1.1M net cap savings, $0.2M dead cap)
• ERFA OT Theo Benedet and RFA DE Daniel Hardy both return on minimum deals
• Yes, I know that Hardy doesn't actually need to come back on a minimum deal, but it seems awfully likely.

All we've done is generate $11.2M in cap space while creating a hole at WLB.

Free Agency

Last year, the approach in free agency was clear: add talent in the interior offensive line and along the defensive line. Enter Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Grady Jarrett before the Draft weekend additions of Ozzy Trapilo, Shemar Turner, and Luke Newman. The additions on the offensive line were dramatically more impactful than the defensive additions. So it goes.

This year, the goals are clear but the ability to plug them is tough. To wit:

• Safeties matter. Both Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker are free agents. So are Jonathan Owens, Elijah Hicks, and Jaylon Jones. That's...all of them. Gotta get some safeties.
• Who is bringing the pass rush juice? Top-level DEs are very expensive and the Bears lack the cap space to make a play for Trey Hendrickson or another free agent without engaging in the type of cap shenanigans that they have otherwise avoided.
• Who replaces Edmunds at LB? I expect a modest free agent signing.
• Is Zah Frazier going to play football again? And did Terell Smith's patellar heal appropriately? If not, and assuming that Nahshon Wright proves way too expensive to bring back, the Bears need a bit more depth at CB.
• Is Kiran Amegadjie still a developmental OL prospect? If so, great! He becomes the top backup at G, replacing Ryan Bates. If not, the Bears need to find another developmental OL.

Free agency isn't going to offer a ton of solutions. But it can help heading into the Draft. The biggest needs are at LB, TE, and S. Spotrac projects personal favorite S Jaquan Brisker to receive a three-year, $34.1M deal. Brisker isn't a star, but he's the heart and soul of the Bears defense. While I don't like the idea of engaging in cap shenanigans, I'd be very tempted to find a way to sign Brisker if the Bears can keep his Y1 cap hit in the $7M neighborhood.

• Bears sign TE Noah Fant to a one-year, $3M deal
• Fant is no star. But he's a low-end starting-caliber TE who can thrive in the TE2 or TE3 slot for the Bears and parlay a year in Ben Johnson's offense into a heftier payday next offseason.
• Bears extend C Drew Dalman via a two-year, $30M extension
• The value of this deal shows itself below. Dalman proved to be an idyllic fit in Johnson's offense and he'll be just 28 next year. After years of disastrous play at the pivot, Dalman has been a godsend for Bears fans. Dalman carries a $14M cap hit, but this extension reworks his deal by reducing his 2026 base salary from $11M to $2M with his new deal including a $10M signing bonus to give him $1M in additional 2026 money, guarantees in 2027, and more job security going forward. It also frees up $6.5M of 2026 cap space, which is great because...
• Bears sign S Jaquan Brisker to a three-year, $34.1M deal
• Here we go. Setting aside workout/roster bonuses, we'll follow the Josh Metellus deal and say that Brisker gets a $12M signing bonus on a deal that includes a $3M base salary in 2026. That keeps Brisker's 2026 cap hit right at $7M. That'll play. He'd get something like $25M guaranteed with this structure.
• If we figure that his base salaries/roster bonuses in 2027 and 2028 need to account for $19M, we'll give him $9M in 2027 and $10M in 2028, yielding cap numbers in those seasons of $13M and $14M respectively. Not ideal but not unworkable.
• Brisker is a risky extension candidate given his history of concussions, but he's a key leader on defense. Losing both Brisker and Byard would be painful.
• Bears sign LB D'Marco Jackson to a one-year, $2M deal
• Jackson has played well in limited action this year. He has also played his way into a core special teams role. Can the Bears afford to carry Amen Ogbongbemiga and Jackson? I think so, especially as a hedge against Ruben Hyppolite being unplayable at LB.

If you're underwhelmed by this free agency period, understood -- me too! Such is life up at the cap line.

Draft

Good teams make their moves at the Draft. Assuming the free agency period above, the Bears enter the Draft with a few absolutely massive needs, as follows:

• DE
• While Sweat, Odeyingbo, and Booker figure to eat most of the reps, the Bears need an infusion of talent, especially given the likelihood that Sweat and Odeyingbo aren't here in 2027.
• DT
• The only DTs on the roster would be Jarrett, Dexter, and Shemar Turner as he returns from a torn ACL.
• TE2/TE3
• S

Entering the Draft, all of the starting spots would be filled, at least nominally, except for the S job next to Brisker. So here goes:

Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to New York Jets for #139

Technically a 4th, but it's the last pick of the compensatory selections and allows the Jets to bring in a big target for their new QB.

#29: Bears draft Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald

No way McDonald makes it this far, right? Well, he has basically the same athletic profile as Tyleik Williams, another Ohio State DT who made it to #28 last year. McDonald would be an ideal fit for this roster. I gave heavy consideration to Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq and Utah OT Caleb Lomu here, too. Both represent excellent value. The DE options were less compelling.

Bears trade #61 to Kansas City for #73, #129, and a 2027 4th

USC S Kamari Ramsey would've been the pick here, but he went off the board at #60. So, this trade brings in some extra picks despite only moderate value.

#73: Bears draft Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

I'm in deep on EMW. Deep. He's go the look of a cornerstone defender with the springiness and attitude to make big plays. Putting him next to Brisker is a great look at the back of the secondary.

#93: Bears draft Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

OK, this was really tough. I settled on Wheatley for four reasons. First, Wheatley is a turnover machine. Second, the safety depth chart is still scary until he joins the party. Third, the relative value of my other choice -- Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez -- isn't quite as high as another safety. And fourth, Dennis Allen started playing some three-safety looks. I would've preferred DE Dani Dennis-Sutton in this spot, but he didn't make it that far.

#124: Cincinnati TE Joe Royer

I took another big risk here, delaying the DE pick yet again. But ensuring that I got Royer in the building was worth it. Ben Johnson is going to have fun with Royer, a former Ohio State TE who shined as a Bearcat.

#129: Ohio State DE Kenyatta Jackson

Unfortunately, my risk at #124 hurt as Notre Dame DE Boubacar Traore came off the board at #125. Of course Philly nabbed my DE. Ugh. That yields an overdraft in this spot. Jackson looks like he'll be able to step in a run defender, but he lacks the explosiveness of an exciting pass rusher. Bummer. He does have the kind of frame that Dennis Allen wants.

#139: Louisville DE Clev Lubin

Lubin is a really interesting, riskier pick. It would be better for this roster to take a LB, RB, or even WR. But no. It's Lubin. Lubin is basically the opposite profile to Jackson. Jackson was a top-50 recruit from football factory Chaminade-Madonna in Florida who spent four years at Ohio State. Lubin, on the other hand, went to Army, then Iowa Western, then Coastal Carolina, and then finally Louisville. At both Coastal Carolina and Louisville, Lubin used his electric first step to cause havoc as a pass rusher. At 6'3", 250 lbs., he lacks the size to play 4-3 DE in anything other than an obvious passing situation. But at #139, it's worth buying his upside as a pass rusher.

#168: Houston TE Tanner Koziol

The success of the WR room opened up this option and caused me to reallocate a roster spot from a 6th WR to a 4th TE. Koziol is a polished receiver and a subpar blocker. If he develops as a blocker, great! If not, he's a nice addition as a receiving threat here.

#207: TCU WR Eric McAlister

McAlister comes with some off-field baggage, but he's got the body of an NFL WR and enjoyed a massive season this year for the Horned Frogs (72/1,190/10).

#242: Oregon RB Noah Whittington

This is guaranteed to work out as well as Monangai, right?

#248: Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa

I still love Nwankpa, even though he clearly lacks the speed to be a serious NFL safety.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Noah Whittington

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Noah Fant, Joe Royer, Tanner Koziol

WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, Eric McAlister

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet, FREE AGENT

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Luke Newman

DE (6): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy, Kenyatta Jackson, Clev Lubin

DT (4): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Kayden McDonald

ILB (2): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson

OLB (3): Amen Ogbongbemiga, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5):  Jaquan Brisker, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Zakee Wheatley, Xavier Nwankpa, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Proof from PFF below:

Not bad. But realistically, most of the improvement for this team will need to come from within. No pressure, Caleb!

Replacing James Franklin: Looking for the Next Penn State Football Head Coach

Man. This coaching search is intense. There are so many names that make sense. There are so many different ways that this could go. I don't want to consider every possibility, but I do want to address a ton of them.

As we look to possibilities, it's important to note that the next Penn State coach will inherit a generally strong program. There's this bizarre notion floating around that James Franklin inherited a nightmare; that's false. Bill O'Brien inherited a nightmare. It's true that the PSU job had significant issues in 2014 when JFF arrived due to a continuing postseason ban and scholarship reductions, but it was nothing like what BOB took over.

Moving to the job, there are two big thoughts that permeate my consideration:

1. Surely an offensive coach is the way to go in 2025...right? This is how I interpreted the Bears' head coaching search at the beginning of the year. Getting an offensive mastermind to pair with a rotating cast of defensive coordinators should be a path to success. So, while it isn't necessary, I'd lean toward an offensive coach.
2. Adam Breneman indicated that sources told him that the new PSU head coach will be the highest-paid coach in all of college football. Penn State is jumping into the deep end. So, nobody gets kept from the list for financial reasons.

With that said, let's get to the list. I decided to limit myself to a very lucky 21 names. Which is a ton. A ton. But the search is so broad at this point that it's worth at least mentioning these guys. Let's go!

21. Lane Kiffin (Mississippi head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Kiffin has had plenty of success, specifically with quarterbacks. You'd think that his defenses would be better given that his dad was star NFL defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, but the offensive production is there.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: So many reasons, but for now, we'll limit this to the fact that Kiffin is a terrible cultural fit at conservative Penn State.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Very low

20. Nick Saban (media personality)

• Why He Makes Sense: He's Nick Saban. Come on.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Saban appears to have very little interest in getting back into coaching. He's 74 this week.
• Plausibility: Extreme long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Pretty low

19. Urban Meyer (media personality)

• Why He Makes Sense: He's Urban Meyer. Come on.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: There are some concerns about Meyer's fit in the new era of college football where players have more power. His stint with the Jacksonville Jaguars was famously disastrous.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Exceptionally low

18. Terry Smith (Penn State interim head coach and cornerbacks coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Smith is a Penn State lifer and a top-level recruiter.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: At 56, Smith hasn't even been a coordinator. He'd be overmatched taking over the Penn State job.
• Plausibility: Extreme long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Very low (but I do hope that Terry Smith comes back at CB coach)

17. Lincoln Riley (USC head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Offense, offense, and more offense. Riley has produced some of the strongest results of any college coach in recent memory...
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: ...but not recently. And Riley hasn't coached or recruited in the northeast or DMV area. He's also the head coach at USC; Penn State isn't an upgrade for him.
• Plausibility: Extreme long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Medium

[note: there's a massive gap in my interest level from #17 to #16 and following]

16. Manny Diaz (Duke head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Diaz has experience in State College after a successful two-year stint as defensive coordinator. He's from recruiting-rich southeast Florida. He has P4 head coaching experience at Miami and Duke.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: That head coaching experience isn't great, especially at Miami. Despite his experience at PSU, he very much isn't a native son and he's a defensive coach. The fit with current defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is nightmare fuel; Knowles would be asked to leave.
• Plausibility: Unlikely
• Rob's Excitement Level: Modest

15. Clark Lea (Vanderbilt head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: He's winning at Vanderbilt. After winning SEC Coach of the Year in 2024 for going 7-6, he's got the Commodores at 7-1.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: He's from Nashville and went to Vanderbilt. He spent a couple of years at Syracuse, but otherwise hasn't been in the northeast. Defensive background.
• Plausibility: Unlikely
• Rob's Excitement Level: Rather low (but he's probably a better choice than Brady)

14. Pat Fitzgerald (high school volunteer)

• Why He Makes Sense: Fitzgerald won 110 games at Northwestern. Northwestern. Fitzgerald was long though to be on the short list to replace Joe Paterno whenever the time came. He's from Big Ten country (Illinois). He had three 10-win seasons at Northwestern. Respect for winning at places that traditionally stink.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Fitzgerald hasn't coached in three years. His last two Northwestern teams combined to go 4-20. The hazing scandal that got him fired isn't the freshest, but it's not a good look.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Moderate

13. Joe Brady (Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator)

• Why He Makes Sense: Brady checks a ton of boxes. Like Diaz, he's from recruiting-rich southeast Florida. He was a graduate assistant at Penn State for two years in 2015-16. He has NFL coordinator experience. He has always coached on the offensive side of the ball. 2019 LSU: wow! He has a Broyles Award on his mantle. And it's tough to argue with what Josh Allen has become.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Only two years as an offensive coordinator. Never a head coach. Unclear whether he actually want to be a college coach.
• Plausibility: Medium
• Rob's Excitement Level: Medium

12. Ryan Silverfield (Memphis head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Silverfield has turned Memphis into arguably the top G5 program in the country. Memphis went 10-3 in 2023, 11-2 in 2024, and is 7-1 with a clear path to the CFP in 2025. Silverfield is on track for a P4 job this winter. He also has NFL experience. He's an offensive line coach by nature.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Everything else. He's from Jacksonville, Florida with no experience in the northeast at all. 
• Plausibility: Not the longest of long shots...but not likely, either
• Rob's Excitement Level: Sneaky high

11. Will Stein (Oregon offensive coordinator)

• Why He Makes Sense: Stein's offenses have been very productive. It helps that he's had elite quarterback play between Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore, but Stein's units have worked. His geographic experience isn't helpful, but could he be the offensive version of Dan Lanning? Maybe.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: He's from Louisville and has since coached in Texas and Oregon. He has only been a coordinator for three seasons.
• Plausibility: Extremely high -- if PSU offered, Stein would surely take the job
• Rob's Excitement Level: Moderate -- I'm intrigued

10. Matt Rhule (Nebraska head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: This has been covered plenty. Rhule is a Penn State letterman from State College Area High School. Tons of experience in the northeast. He secured consecutive 10-win seasons at Temple. He won 11 games at Baylor. He has improved each year at Nebraska and has them in line for a meaningfully successful year in 2025. Rhule also has NFL experience as a head coach, record notwithstanding. He has longstanding connections with Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Franklin was fired when the 2025 season fell apart against UCLA and Northwestern, but he has on thin ice because of his inability to beat top-level competition. Rhule's Temple teams beat #21 East Carolina in 2014, #21 Memphis in 2015, and #20 Navy in 2016. That's it for ranked wins. Rhule could plausibly go 10-2 this year...and 0-1 against ranked opponents. He has brought Nebraska back to respectability, but can that really be enough?
• Plausibility: High
• Rob's Excitement Level: Medium-low

9. Matt Campbell (Iowa State head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: He's from eastern Ohio and spent all of his coaching career in Ohio until taking the Iowa State job in 2016. Campbell has been good at Iowa State. Not great, but good. In the decade before Campbell arrived, Iowa State has one winning season, going 7-6 in 2009. Campbell has seven winning seasons in nine years. Winning at a bad program is impressive.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: What's the ceiling here? It probably isn't that high. Campbell isn't going to energize the program.
• Plausibility: Reasonably high
• Rob's Excitement Level: Pretty low 

8. Eliah Drinkwitz (Missouri head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Drinkwitz has built Missouri into a legitimate contender and his recruiting has really picked up. He has an offensive background.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Drinkwitz hasn't lived or worked in the northeast at all. But he's a highly successful coach in the SEC; this isn't the biggest concern.
• Plausibility: Medium
• Rob's Excitement Level: Medium-plus

7. Kalen DeBoer (Alabama head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: DeBoer has won everywhere. He's 120-17 as a head coach! He went 25-3 at Washington! He's an offensive coach with big success at every stop. As a South Dakota native whose entire pre-Alabama career was spent as Sioux Falls, Southern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Fresno State, Indiana, and Washington. He has lived in smaller-caliber gigs and thrived there.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: No experience in the northeast. That's the only blemish.
• Plausibility: Low...but not zero. There are murmurs that DeBoer and Alabama aren't a match made in heaven.
• Rob's Excitement Level: Extreme

6. Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Freeman has succeeded at Notre Dame and is highly desired by NFL and elite college programs alike. Freeman grew up in Ohio, played at Ohio State, and has coached at Ohio State, Kent State, Purdue, and Cincinnati; his whole career has been spent in quality Penn State recruiting territory. Surely he'd recruit linebackers at an elite level.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: He's a poor match with Knowles. There will be concerns about him jumping to the NFL or to Ohio State if that job comes open.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Extreme

5. Mike Elko (Texas A&M head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Elko is absolutely killing it. He's from New Jersey. He played at Penn. He spent much of his career in the northeast. He has succeeded at Duke and at Texas A&M. A&M figures to win at least 11 regular season games this year. Wow.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: A&M has oil money. Elko would want to put his stamp on the Penn State defense, too...but at this point, who cares? You let him do it.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Very high

4. Curt Cignetti (Indiana head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: If you've paid any attention in the past couple of years, this is obvious. Cignetti is 19-2 at Indiana. He's from Pittsburgh. He has coached all over the place. He's 138-37 as a head coach, which is good...but when we update that to 71-11 between James Madison and Indiana, it gets considerably more impressive. He played quarterback at West Virginia and his offenses have been unbelievably successful.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Cignetti signed an eight-year extension at $11.6M per year this month. He's got a great thing going at Indiana. He won't leave Indiana unless he doesn't think he can WIN there...and the Hoosiers are ranked #2. He's also old (64), but that doesn't matter if he can win for a decade.
• Plausibility: Extremely unlikely, especially after his second extension
• Rob's Excitement Level: Tippy top of the list

3. Brian Hartline (Ohio State offensive coordinator)

• Why He Makes Sense: Hartline is a unicorn. He only has three years of offensive coordinator experience...but it's really only this year as he shared the co-OC designation with Chip Kelly previously. Hartline has only ever coached at Ohio State. But my God, the wide receiver production has been absurd. The Ohio State offense has continued to roll with Hartline taking over and the ability to attract elite WR talent might be the single biggest gap for Penn State's next coaching staff to fill. Hartline is from Ohio, too.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Every other reason? Hartline hasn't been a head coach. He hasn't coached in the NFL. He has really only been a co-coordinator before this year. He is exclusively associated with a rival school. If the Ohio State job comes open, surely he'd take it in a heartbeat.
• Plausibility: Honestly, I don't know but I lean toward more unlikely than likely given Hartline's OSU connections
• Rob's Excitement Level: Very high

2. Dan Mullen (UNLV head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: I haven't heard a peep about Mullen, but I don't know why. He checks a lot of boxes. He was born in southeast Pennsylvania, grew up in New Hampshire, and came back to Pennsylvania to play college football. Then, he hopped aboard the Urban Meyer coaching train and following Meyer from Bowling Green to Utah to Florida before taking the head coaching job at Mississippi State. Mullen had seven winning seasons in nine years at Mississippi State, an incredible performance, before he left to take the Florida job. Perception is that Mullen struggled at Florida; perception is dumb. Mullen's teams finished ranked 7th, 6th, and 13th in his first three years; he was fired after going 5-6 in year four. Since Mullen left, Florida has three losing seasons and a high-water mark of 8-5 in 2024. Mullen now has UNLV on track for a double-digit victory season at a school that had one winning season from 2001-22. Very impressive stuff. Mullen has exclusively coached quarterbacks and wide receivers. Some of his quarterbacks: Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, Dak Prescott, and Kyle Trask. Wow.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Maybe things got weird at Florida? Maybe Mullen doesn't want to come back to the northeast? Maybe he really enjoys being a big fish in a small pond in the Mountain West? I don't know. Mullen just makes sense.
• Plausibility: Extremely high
• Rob's Excitement Level: Pretty high

1. Jedd Fisch (Washington head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Fisch is very similar to his predecessor at Washington. Like DeBoer, Fisch has won all over the place. He's from New Jersey. He has always been an offensive coach, working with quarterbacks and wide receivers. He has coached in the NFL at numerous stops, in college at numerous stops, in the northeast, the midwest, the southeast, and the west coast. He has been on staffs with Steve Spurrier, Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh, and Sean McVay. He took Arizona from one win to 10 wins in two years; Arizona! He has Washington looking very strong. And at just 49, he has plenty of runway left. Eagles GM Howie Roseman was his college roommate.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Honestly, I can't think of a reason. He's already making $7.75M at Washington, but Penn State surely has the financial resources to top that in a meaningful way.
• Plausibility: Very high
• Rob's Excitement Level: Extreme

There we have it. So many options. I'm going to hold out hope for one of the top three.

Thoughts on the End of James Franklin's Tenure at Penn State

When the Chicago Bears fired Lovie Smith following a 10-6, non-playoff season in 2012, I was ready for the Bears to try something different. Smith's players always loved him and always played hard, but Smith was entirely unable to find even a league-average offense during his tenure. After nine years, it was time. Of course, the 12 seasons that followed were...underwhelming. Marc Trestman got off to a good start before imploding; he lasted just two season. John Fox apparently retired by taking the Bears job; he muddled through three crummy years. Matt Nagy got off to a scorching hot start in 2018 after GM Ryan Poles mortgaged the 2020s for that roster, but one missed field goal (preceded by many other missed field goals and extra points) torpedoed his tenure. Then Matt Eberflus happened. Yuck. Thankfully, Ben Johnson is here to save the day. The Bears wandered in the coaching wilderness for 12 years after Smith left. But it was still the right move. Smith's tenure had run its course and it was time to try someone new, risk be damned.

The firing of James Franklin has some similarities. Franklin spent 11.5 years at the helm in State College and oversaw a slew of elite defenses with some reasonably strong offenses. We'll go through Franklin's tenure in much more detail below, but suffice it to say, his five top-10 finishes are nothing to sneeze at! Unfortunately, Franklin built his reputation as a coach who consistently handled teams with lesser talent but couldn't beat peers or more talented squads. That approach will get a coach a lot of runway. Lovie Smith avoided bottoming out with the Bears...but he also proved unable to push the Bears over the top. At some point, a team needs to try something new.

Unlike Lovie Smith, Franklin bottomed out. True, Penn State is only 3-3, which is a mediocre record on its face. But things look much worse with just a bit of investigation. Penn State struggled to put away Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, then infamously mustered just 109 yards and three points through three quarters against Oregon. Still, Franklin was in fine shape...until losing outright as a 25.5-point favorite at UCLA and as a 21-point favorite at home to Northwestern. It's going to get worse. Penn State's problems -- subpar DT and LB play combined with a non-functioning passing offense -- will be exploited by the more talented opponents on their roster in the coming weeks. If interim coach Terry Smith can get the team to six wins, it will be a tremendous accomplishment. This is the reality that got Franklin fired.

Franklin politicked for years to get his preferred "alignment" with a university president and athletic director. He got it in Neeli Bendapudi and Pat Kraft. Franklin asked for increased financial investment. He got it, primarily in the form of his hand-picked coordinators in Andy Kotelnicki and Jim Knowles. And the results? Disastrous.

Add it all up and it was time for Franklin to go. He put his eggs into the 2025 basket and then failed spectacularly. Kudos to Kraft and the athletic department for deciding to eat the $50M left on Franklin's deal in an effort to reorient the ship.

The Penn State Football Paradigm Has Shifted

The first two years of the James Franklin era at Penn State were rough. The Nittany Lions, mired in the post-Sandusky sanctions that stunted the program's roster, shuffled through a couple of years of wildly unimpressive 7-6 records. The wins in 2014? UCF, Akron, Rutgers, UMass, Indiana, Temple, and Boston College. Four of those were one-score wins. The wins in 2015? Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State, Army, Indiana, Maryland, and Illinois. Just two of those were one-score wins, so that was improvement I guess? None of that matters. After a rough September in 2016, everything changed. Penn State showed the ability to play with the big boys in 2016 and, most notably, immediately stopped losing to mediocre teams. For a team that lost to Temple and Northwestern in 2015 after losing to Northwestern, Maryland, and Illinois in 2014, Penn State ceased succumbing to scrubs. To wit:

From 2016 through yesterday and excluding the 2020 season (which I always exclude because what in the world was 2020?), Penn State's record is 86-26. Of those 26 losses, only four have come to teams that managed only single-digit wins:

• 2016 Pitt went 8-5. Nittany lost 42-39 in Pittsburgh. 2016 Pitt played a brutal schedule and also took down 14-1 national champion Clemson.
• 2018 Michigan State went 7-6. That 21-17 loss was a terrible loss.
• 2021 Illinois went 5-7. Do I need to delve into the 9OT loss? Sean Clifford, clearly injured still following his exit from the Iowa game the week before, played his worst game. Illinois QB Art Sitkowski threw for 38 yards in the win.
• 2021 Arkansas went 9-4. I'm not sure what to do with bowl games littered with opt-outs.

So, to be clear, 22 of those 26 losses came to teams with 10+ wins. As of this morning, Penn State hadn't lost to a team that ended the year with fewer than 11 wins since 2021 Arkansas.

Over Franklin's tenure, some teams have moved into the elite tier. After largely living in the same tier as Penn State for decades, Kirby Smart arrived and moved Georgia into the tippy top. Oregon was great a decade ago, then wandered in the wilderness before Dan Lanning showed up and reestablished the championship pedigree. Other teams have moved into the elite tier and then back out of it. Here's looking at you, Clemson and Michigan.

Franklin never took that step into the elite tier. His now infamous "great to elite" speech following the second straight one-point loss to Ohio State in 2018 has proved prescient in unintended ways. Still, in an effort to get over the hump, Franklin has facilitated the employment of:

• A football-friendly university president (Neeli Bendapudi)
• A football-focused athletic director (Pat Kraft)
• A rising-star offensive coordinator with a top-dollar contract (Andy Kotelnicki)
• The highest-paid defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles)

Penn State was, arguably, doing everything it took to get on the path to elite production. But even if that didn't work, the floor was insanely high.

Until today. Everything changed today.

We start with Knowles. After handling the overmatched preseason opposition, the PSU defense held Oregon to relative meager production in the first half, allowing just three points. And then...

• Oregon: 10 plays, 80 yards, TD
• Oregon: 10 plays, 75 yards, TD
• Oregon: 6 plays, 7 yards, punt
• Oregon: 7 plays, 25 yards, TD
• Oregon: 1 play, 25 yards, TD
• UCLA: 11 plays, 75 yards, TD
• UCLA: 7 plays, 40 yards, FG
• UCLA: 17 plays, 75 yards, TD
• UCLA: 6 plays, 68 yards, TD
• UCLA: 3 plays, 17 yards, FG (stopped by clock)
• UCLA: 6 plays, 8 yards, punt
• UCLA: 8 plays, 75 yards, TD

Ummm, wut? Over those 12 possessions (excluding Oregon's end-of-half kneel down), that's eight TDs, two FGs, and two punts. Unforgiveable. That's unacceptable for an Arena League defense. Sure, Knowles had to deal with the loss of athletic LB Tony Rojas this week, but he's supposed to be the top defensive mind in the country. Surely he can survive against UCLA without one LB. But no. Knowles was either unwilling to play a spy against UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava or, when he did play a spy, failed to have a player ready to go with sufficient athleticism to hang with Nico. Dani Dennis-Sutton was spying on the last UCLA TD which, well, isn't going to work.

When Sean Clifford got hurt at Iowa in 2021, it cratered the season because Ta'Quan Roberson was completely incapable of operating the offense. Clifford played hurt, the offense scuffled, and the season went off the rails. Surely the 2025 defense isn't unworkable now with Rojas out...right? Much like Jan Johnson before him, Dom DeLuca tries hard, but he's wildly overmatched athletically and completely abandoned his zone responsibilities on multiple occasions today, creating massive running lanes for Iamaleava. There must be another option, not like it matters at this point.

Obviously it's unfair to put everything on Knowles, even with how poorly his defense has performed lately. There's plenty of blame for Kotelnick's offense. It starts with the coach. Why...in the world...is Nick Singleton...playing so much over Kaytron Allen? Singleton was playing great at the end of the 2024 season. Allen has wildly outplayed his backfield buddy this year. Singleton continues to get the majority of the touches. It's just bizarre.

Beyond the RBs, Drew Allar continues to to underwhelm. Some of that is unfair to Allar; Kotelnicki wants Allar to be Beau Pribula or Trace McSorley and he isn't. Allar's numbers look fine enough today at the end of the game. But much like last week against the Ducks, Allar and his offense struggled early. After a 75-yard touchdown drive, the offense sputtered to a three-and-punt and followed with a turnover on downs, giving the ball back to UCLA to push the halftime lead to 20. I won't blame Allar for the next drive...

That "honor" goes to Luke Reynolds. There was always going to be a drop off from Tyler Warren to whoever took over his job; that was inevitable. Unfortunately, the guy tasked with the primary responsibility there, Reynolds has been terrible. Reynolds has been missing blocks all over the place to kill running plays and has dropped a few catchable throws through five games. But he hit a new low point, handing the ball back to the Bruins on the second snap of the second half with a fumble, too.

So where does Penn State go from here?

Honestly, bowl eligibility is now the concern for me. Oh boy. The energy form the Penn State sideline was non-existent throughout the game, even as the season slipped away. Both coordinators seem intent on pretending that objective reality isn't the case. Knowles wants to play with a six-man box even though his DL can't generate pressure and his LBs now lack athleticism to operate with all of the space they need to cover. Kotelnicki pretends that his QB is mobile, and while Allar tries to run when necessary, it isn't pretty or explosive.

I thought Penn State needed to beat Oregon last week, even though I didn't think they'd win. Everything came together on paper in advance of that game. Oregon had to travel across the country. Penn State got a night Whiteout. Penn State featured their best roster in many years. And yet, Nittany still found a way to lose.

I figured that they'd suffer their normal post-1st-loss hangover this week. Franklin has done that many times, but (i) UCLA is terrible, (ii) this Penn State team was supposed to be better, and (iii) in the 12-team Playoff era, everything was still in front of this squad. And it didn't matter. The hangover lasted into the 2nd half.

Is there a world where Penn State runs the table and heads into the Playoff at 10-2? I mean, yeah, sure, I guess. But it's much more likely that we live in a world where this Penn State team completely unravels and misses a bowl game than it is that we live in that 10-2 world.

Today is a gut punch on the level of the 2017 Michigan State loss that killed Nittany's path to the Playoff ...but 2017 MSU was very good! 2025 UCLA is not. Losing to a bad team has the chance to torpedo this season, spilling over into recruiting losses. Honestly, it's hard to imagine that not being the case at this point.