Could 2024 Finally Be the Year that Penn State Beats Ohio State Again?

Could this finally be the year? 2016 was amazing, but it was also a very long time ago. Coach James Franklin -- affectionately referred to in these parts as "JFF," a very well-earned moniker -- has struggled mightily to get over the hump and actually beat OSU since that magical year. But his teams continue to play OSU tough. In fact, here's a look at his performances against OSU over the years:

• 2014
• Spread: PSU +14
• Result: Loss 31-24 in 2OT
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 17-17 tie.
• 2015
• Spread: PSU +17 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 38-10
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. 21-10 OSU to start Q4.
• 2016
• Spread: PSU +20
• Result: WIN 24-21
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes.
• 2017
• Spread: PSU +7 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 39-38
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 35-20 with 12 minutes left. Win expectancy % peaked at 97.2%.
• 2018
• Spread: PSU +3.5
• Result: Loss 27-26
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 26-14 with 8 minutes left. WE% peaked at 96.1%.
• 2019
• Spread: PSU +19.5 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 28-17
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. 21-17 OSU to start Q4.
• 2020 (whatever that was)
• Spread: PSU +10.5
• Result: Loss 38-25
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. Closest point was 31-19 OSU early Q4.
• 2021
• Spread: PSU +17.5 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 33-24
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 27-24 OSU with 10 minutes left.
• 2022
• Spread: PSU +15.5
• Result: Loss 44-31
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 21-16 PSU with 10 minutes left.
• 2023
• Spread: PSU +4.5
• Result: Loss 20-12
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 13-6 OSU mid-4th.
• 2024
• Spread: PSU +3.5
• Result:
• 4th Quarter Lead?

Franklin's teams have been consistently competitive. Over 10 games -- and we're counting the COVID game here, though I'm not sure we should -- Penn State has one win, two other games with two-score fourth quarter leads, another game with a one-score fourth quarter lead, another game that went to double overtime, three other games where PSU was within one score in the final 10 minutes, and two others where PSU was within two scores in the fourth quarter. Given that decade of situations, Penn State's 1-9 record is remarkable, unfortunately for the wrong reasons.

I start with this history because, unfortunately, it matters. JFF carries this baggage with him into Saturday's game.

Turning to the rosters, I understand why Ohio State is favored. While Will Howard is a huge step down when compared to other recent OSU QBs, he's plenty competent, and he'll throw the ball around at Beaver Stadium to an outrageously talented group of WRs led by freshman savant Jeremiah Smith,  Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. Egbuka still projects as a first-round pick and is likely the third best player in that group. Absurd. Penn State's defensive backfield is strong and has played well this year, but AJ Harris has struggled a bit recently and the absence of KJ Winston is rearing its head. On the other side of the ball, OSU's defensive backfield, led by CB Denzel Burke, S Caleb Downs, S Sonny Styles, and S Lathan Ransom, figures to make life extremely difficult on Penn State's average group of receivers. While Trey Wallace and Liam Clifford have proved to be reasonably productive this year, it's hard to see them creating significant plays against this defense.

Taken together, Penn State's path to victory appears to be on the ground, on both sides of the ball. Penn State appeared to have a good chance for a productive day of running the football if the team was at full strength. Unfortunately, that isn't the case. RT Anthony Donkoh -- Penn State's best offensive lineman earlier this year -- is trying to play through shoulder and knee injuries, and it shows. While the rest of the PSU OL has performed well in its run blocking, the dropoff from a healthy Donkoh to either (i) a hobbled Donkoh, or (ii) Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci, is absolutely massive. Against some teams, Penn State can scheme around the shortcomings. Against DE JT Tuimoloau, DE Jack Sawyer, and DT Tyleik Williams, a trio of experienced defenders headed to the NFL this offseason via top-100 picks, Penn State needs to be in top form. Adding Beau Pribula as a running threat may help, but that comes with a rather obvious cost to Penn State's downfield passing attack. Still, it's plausible that Pribula's running ability is necessary to combat the incredible strength of the Ohio State defense at all levels.

Fortunately, we may encounter a very strange situation involving Ohio State's offensive line: it is horribly banged up and underperforming. G Donovan Jackson is playing OK. LT Josh Simmons was having a nice season and projects as a good pro...but he suffered a knee injury against Oregon and is out for the year. His backup, Zen Michalski, was carted off the field following a terrible showing against Nebraska. Either a hobbled Michalski or a third-string LT figures to take the field in State College. This offers an opportunity for Penn State. Ohio State has rushed the ball 30+ times in every game this year, so there may not be a tremendous number of true pass rush opportunities. However, if Penn State can require OSU to allocate two blockers to DE Abdul Carter on each pass rushing snap, opportunities should abound elsewhere on the line. DT Zane Durant figures to have the opportunity to blow up the game from the inside. If PSU can successfully limit the OSU rushing attack and pressure Howard on passing plays, the Nittany Lions will have a shot. If OSU's line holds up and gives Howard a chance to distribute the ball to his pass catchers, Franklin figures to drop to 1-10 against the Buckeyes.

Given the makeup of these rosters, I'd love to see Penn State negate Ohio State's defensive backs by pulling them off the field entirely. Play bully ball. Put three tight ends on the field with a couple of running backs and a running QB. This plan took a huge hit when TE2/3 Andrew Rappleyea suffered a season-ending knee injury; as good as Luke Reynolds has looked in the TE3 role, could he really handle 50 snaps against OSU? Yikes. Still, I'm expecting to see a tremendous amount of TE2 Khalil Dinkins on the field on Saturday, to say nothing of the barrage of touches that will surely be funneled toward national TE1 Tyler Warren.

I've made it this far without directly addressing the elephant in the room: Penn State's QB situation. Former 5* QB and Ohio native Drew Allar has looked dramatically better this year, raising the offense's ceiling from last season. Unfortunately, Allar suffered what appears to be a knee injury against Wisconsin. If he plays, he'll surely be limited in his mobility and likely be unable to escape the pocket when necessary. I'm deeply concerned that this iteration of the Penn State offensive line -- with Donkoh's injury -- won't have an advantage over Ohio State's front; thus, the legs of Beau Pribula could be necessary for Penn State's offense to function. I don't love the idea of Pribula making his first start against the Buckeyes, but given the circumstances, this is probably the best of two bad choices.

As we near the end, we get to special teams. Starting Penn State PR Kaden Saunders remains out with a foot injury and reserve Zion Tracy is yet to make a difference in the return game. P Riley Thompson has been solid, though not quite as solid as last year. Most notably, K Ryan Barker appears to have stabilized the placekicking game following his walkoff field goal against USC. Given the tight nature of so many PSU-OSU contests, the kicking game could loom large.

Finally, we loop back to the coaches. Ryan Day is developing a reputation as something of a James Franklin 2.0, a coach who dominates just about every opponent...except for the elite teams on the schedule, where he finds a way to lose. Day's team suffered a fatal brain fart in Eugene, but otherwise looks very strong. And for all of Day's struggles relative to OSU expectations, he has not struggled to beat Penn State.

So, again I ask: could this finally be the year? Sadly, I don't think so. Penn State has the talent to play with Ohio State and turn this game into a coin flip, but Ohio State's receiving talent will be impossible to stifle. There's a strange narrative emanating that Ohio State struggles to run the ball. Yes, they struggled to run the ball against Nebraska, but TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combined for 110 yards on 21 carries against Oregon, 139 yards on 24 carries against Iowa, and 123 yards on just 18 carries against Michigan State. While Penn State's run defense is arguably better than those squads, OSU should still be able to run with some success.

The Penn State defense has suffocated opposing offenses in the second half of games, particularly in the third quarter, but they have sluffed through many first halves. If Penn State holds Ohio State to 10 points or less in the second half, though could be enough to win...but it won't be enough to win if the defense surrenders three touchdowns in the first half. I think that happens on Saturday, complete with the added concern that a hobbled Allar or first-time starting Pribula seems primed for a turnover or two that gifts the Buckeyes offense with a short field. I do think that Penn State will move the ball against Ohio State significantly more than last year, regardless of who plays QB. But if Penn State reaches halftime down something like 21-10, the offense will be forced to press the OSU secondary...and that's a recipe for disappointment.

OSU 31

PSU 20

Chicago Bears 2025 Mock Offseason: Post-Hail Mary Depression Edition

I ran a whole bunch of mock offseasons over the past couple of years. I generally tried to wait until the Bears were out of contention. Unfortunately, that time has likely come, despite the current 4-3 record. Matt Eberflus has lost seven road games in each of his two seasons at the helm. Here is the remaining road schedule for the Bears:

• Nov. 3 @ Arizona
• Nov. 28 @ Detroit
• Dec. 8 @ San Francisco
• Dec. 16 @ Minnesota
• Jan. 5 @ Green Bay

In order to avoid seven losses again, the Bears would need to find multiple wins against that slate. They'll be underdogs in every one of those games, and Flus is 3-17 on the road as a head coach.

This season is now exclusively about developing Caleb Williams and the young core around him.

Internal Decisions
Far and away, the most important internal decision is what to do with Flus. My thoughts on the matter have been clear for some time. Flus needs to go. If the Bears go 7-10 or worse in 2024, he surely will. Here's hoping he's gone.

Moving to the roster, there are a few easy choices. G Nate Davis is gone, leaving $2M of dead cap space behind. 

There are some tougher choices. ILB Tremaine Edmunds has generally disappointed, but it's very difficult to find an ILB with his body to roam the middle of this defense; plus, cutting him only yields $4.3M of net cap space. He most likely sticks. S Kevin Byard has been very impressive, but cutting him only leaves $1.5M of dead space; still, he should come back unless he trails off. TE Gerald Everett has been a huge disappointment; with only $1M of dead space against $6.5M of cap space if he says, I think Everett is gone. DE DeMarcus Walker's cap hit drops under $6M but he leaves only $667K of dead space if cut. That was an easy choice last year, but he has been much more impressive this year, especially when sliding inside on pass rushing downs. He's not a winning team's DE2, but he's a great DE3 and a good DT2 on 3rd down. He stays. G Ryan Bates and his $4M cap hit stays, assuming his injury isn't a long-term one. S Jonathan Owens has only played 12 defensive snaps through seven games, despite injuries in the secondary. He's gone, leaving $375K of dead cap space behind him.

Lower on the cap table, some recent draftees find themselves in dicey situations, including WR Tyler Scott, DE Dominique Robinson, LB Noah Sewell, and even DT Zacch Pickens. I won't cut any of them for purposes of this exercise, but things look bad for Scott and Robinson in particular.

It seems likely that the Bears let G Teven Jenkins walk in free agency; he was drafted by the Ryan Pace regime, he hasn't ever been able to stay healthy, and his play peaked during his sophomore year. But I hope he stays; I love watching Teven.

The cuts above yield the following dead hits:

• G Nate Davis: $2M
• TE Gerald Everett: $1M
• S Jonathan Owens: $0.375M

With an adjusted cap of $280,261,771 and after allocating (i) $3,760,228 to dead money, (ii) $4M to the practice squad, (iii) holding back $10M to account for draft cap hits over the minimum, (iv) holding back $10M for in-season cap space, and (iv) accounting for $186,287,801 of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter free agency with approximately $66.214M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Free Agency
The Bears have two massive needs in free agency with two additional target areas listed in order of my preference:

1. Interior Offensive Line. After terrible play at the pivot for years, Coleman Shelton has been surprisingly decent after a dreadful start. Nevertheless, the Bears need an influx of talent in the interior, whether at G or C, and likely both through the draft and free agency. They could even consider signing at new LT and kicking Braxton Jones inside to G. Names to consider:
1. iOL: G Trey Smith, C Drew Dalman, G Teven Jenkins, C Ryan Kelly, G Will Fries, G Aaron Banks, C Connor Williams, C Coleman Shelton, G James Daniels, G Kevin Zeitler
2. OT: Ronnie Stanley, Garrett Bolles, Cam Robinson, Morgan Moses, Trent Brown, Alaric Jackson
2. Defensive Line. The Bears need another impact player up front. It's probably better coming at DE, though a 1-tech or 3-tech DT could work, too, with some roster shenanigans.
1. DTs: Calais Campbell, Milton Williams, B.J. Hill, Osa Odighizuwa
2. DEs: Haason Reddick, Khalil Mack, Malcolm Koonce, Chase Young, Matthew Judon, Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, Josh Uche, Derek Barnett
3. #2/#3 Wide Receiver. Keenan Allen doesn't seem like a long-term fit, though he has been solid. Adding another piece to pair with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze would be prudent.
1. Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Darius Slayton
4. Tight End #2. Gerald Everett just hasn't delivered. A complementary piece to Cole Kmet would be so helpful.
1. Mike Gesicki, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Conklin, Tommy Tremble, Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper

The Bears have largely eschewed playing at the top of the market, save for keeping CB Jaylon Johnson last year. This year, I think that changes. Ryan Poles has largely tried to fix the interior offensive line by tinkering, spending in middle class free agency for G Nate Davis, C Lucas Patrick, and C Coleman Shelton, and swinging a modest deal for G/C Ryan Bates. No more.

These contract projections are my own as PFF doesn't have any yet:

• Sign RG Trey Smith (4/$84M, $46M guaranteed)
• The top of the iOL market exploded recently. This is the cost of doing business there.
• Sign C Drew Dalman (4/$58M, $34M guaranteed).
• Poles could consider staying at lower class free agency with Shelton; he has admittedly played reasonably well in the last month and would surely benefit from a infusion of talent next to him. But Dalman represents the biggest swing possible for Caleb Williams.
• Sign WR Diontae Johnson (3/$42M with $25M guaranteed)
• Sign TE Austin Hooper (1/$3M)
• Re-Sign OLB Jack Sanborn (2/$4M, $2M guaranteed)
• Re-Sign DT Chris Williams (RFA tender of 1/$1.5M)
• Re-Sign C Doug Kramer (ERFA tender of 1/$1M)

The most important goals this offseason are (i) adding significant talent to the offensive line, and (ii) solving the C spot, whether via continuity or new talent. Smith and Dalman represent the tippy top of the iOL market.

I not extremely confident that Poles will take multiple dips into the deep end given that the Bears finally have homegrown talent to keep in the form of CB Kyler Gordon, S Jaquan Brisker, and LT Braxton Jones. Those extensions could utilize a chunk of 2025 cap space. But even this spending spree doesn't create a cap crunch. The time is right for big forays before meaningful extensions are required.

Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $57M of cap space before accounting for lower first-year cap hits. This should leave plenty for the draft class and the aforementioned extensions, even with possible draft trades.

Draft
This mock requires some assumptions. Namely, the the Pittsburgh pick for the Justin Fields pick is the Steelers' 4th, not 6th. As of now, Fields has played well more than 51% of the Pittsburgh snaps thus far, but with Russell Wilson now running the show, this is probably a toss up, with the result depending on Wilson's health status.

The Bears have their own picks in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th rounds, an extra 2nd from Carolina, the aforementioned Pittsburgh 4th, and a 7th from Cleveland from the Chris Williams trade. This mock was completed using the Pro Football Focus mock draft tool.

The draft class impacted my thoughts on free agency. The OL class is fine; the DE class is fantastic, so spending on the OL was more palatable than spending on DE.

#18: Penn State DE Abdul Carter
A dream scenario. Carter is a Swiss Army knife on defense given his extensive experience at DE and OLB, and his measurables are nearly identical to former Nittany Lion Micah Parsons. Adding Carter at DE gives the Bears a wave of pass rushers to employ throughout games.

#33: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
I wanted to trade this pick and had some attractive offers to do so...but Winston is far too attractive to pass on here. He's a great addition to the 2025 roster, and he won't be forced into a starting role in his return from a missed year in 2024. The ceiling her is substantial as evidenced by Winston's superb 2023 season.

My other top consideration here was West Virginia LT Wyatt Milum, who came off the board at #34. Surely I'll take an OL at #50, right?

Bears trade #50 and a 2026 6th to Seattle for #80 and a 2025 2nd

This is my favorite type of trade, and the Bears have routinely been on the wrong side of it. Trade this year's 2nd for next year's 2nd and the benefit is that you turn next year's 6th into a mid-3rd this year? Yes please!

#80: USC C Jonah Monheim

Monheim's transition to C hasn't been the smoothest, but he was solid at LT in 2023 and superb splitting 2022 between RG and RT. He's an ideal backup OL who projects as a starting C.

#82: Penn State TE Tyler Warren

I know it looks like I'm an outrageous Penn State homer at this point, but I promise, this is just how the board broke. I do a couple of these each day and end up with about 0.5 Nittany Lions on average, hardly outrageous given the quality fit of their top players with these Bears.

Warren is a perfect fit in the NFL. I'll be floored if he's available here. If he is, it's a no brainer. If he's not, look for Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.

#126: South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori

What if Kyle Hamilton ran a 4.4 instead of a 4.6?

Emmanwori definitely isn't on Hamilton's level of production and his pedigree isn't close. But the starter kit is here. And at #126, it's worth the shot.

#154: Kansas RB Devin Neal

Neal isn't an exceptional athlete, lacks exceptional size, and played in the Big 12, which makes me inherently skeptical of him. But he's plenty productive, athletic enough, and comes with significant experience as a pass catcher, something that is lacking with Roschon Johnson.

#222: UNLV CB Tony Grimes

Grimes had a great pedigree coming out of high school, but the 5* prospect's journey has been quite the twisting path, playing 36 games at North Carolina, transferring to Texas A&M but never playing due to injury, and ending up at UNLV for his final year. His tackling is terrible. This is a bet that a couple of years in one system would help him improve.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:

1st (CHI)
2nd (SEA)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (CHI)
4th (CHI)
5th (CHI)

7th (CHI)

A Note on the Mock

Every other mock I've run includes drafting at least two offensive linemen. This is the first time I haven't done that in weeks...but that's because I have the benefit of knowing that both Smith and Dalman are aboard. If free agency only yields one impact starter on the OL, I'd say goodbye to Emmanwori or even Warren in favor of another OL.

Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Devin Neal, FREE AGENT
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Tyler Warren
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Scott, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, FREE AGENT
OG (3): Trey Smith, Kiran Amegadjie, Ryan Bates
C    (3): Drew Dalman, Jonah Monheim, Doug Kramer

DE (5): Montez Sweat, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Abdul Carter, Dominique Robinson
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter Jr., Zacch Pickens, Chris Williams, FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Tony Grimes
S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Winston Jr., Elijah Hicks, Nick Emmanwori

ST (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

This roster isn't perfect, but it's awfully damn good. The pass rush is hugely improved with Booker and Carter added to complement Sweat, especially given that they enable Walker to kick inside and improve the DT pass rush, too. Adding Warren and Johnson as receiving options ensures the Williams has plenty of receiving options available to him.

Most importantly, the offensive line looks absolutely fantastic. The tackle depth chart is encouraging with Jones at LT, Wright at RT, Amegadjie as the top OT backup, and Monheim as a second OT backup with recent experience out wide; heck, even Bates was a LT at Penn State. Inside, going Amegadjie-Dalman-Smith left to right is darn exciting with Bates and Monheim as quality backups.

The WR depth chart is a little scary, but the allocation of assets into the top three is massive.

Any new coach should be ecstatic to step into this situation!

Chicago Bears 2024 Season Preview and NFL Predictions

College football is underway. It's really fall. But it's not really fall until the Bears take the field. That will happen on Sunday afternoon when the Bears host the Titans to kick off the Caleb Williams era. In advance of Sunday's contest, here's a look at the 2024 Bears with NFL picks to follow.

Coaching

Woof. Whereas Penn State boss James Franklin has done a stellar job hiring staffs over his decade at the helm, the same cannot be said for Matt Eberflus during his tenure as Bears head coach. Of the 19 members of Eberflus' initial on-field coaching staff in 2022, only seven remain in his third season (TE coach Jim Dray, OL coach Chris Morgan, DL coach Travis Smith, LB coach Dave Borgonzi, safeties coach Andre Curtis, special teams coordinator Richard Hightower, and assistant special teams coordinator Carlos Polk). Notably, none of the coaches who left did so for a promotion, and multiple coaches from the 2023 staff left the building with law enforcement involved (defensive coordinator Alan Williams and RB coach David Walker).

Eberflus has never come across as a particularly inspiring leader. Instead, he leaves most Bears fans saying "meh" when he speaks. His showing on "Hard Knocks" did him no favors in my eyes. It was especially striking how regularly Eberflus himself seemed to be a step behind new QB Caleb Williams.

Thankfully, as Franklin himself has shown over the years, hiring a good staff can cover up many of the sins of the head coach, and there's reason to think that Eberflus has significantly upgraded his coordinator positions, albeit because the floor established by DC Williams and OC Luke Getsy was dumbfoundingly low. In particular, new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron found himself in need of a new job through no fault of his own; his Seattle offenses were productive, but the end of Pete Carroll's tenure with the Seahawks meant a sea change for that organization. There's good reason for hope with Waldron running the offense. New defensive coordinator Eric Washington doesn't have the same success at the NFL level, but he does have extensive experience as a DL coach and two years of coordinator experience with Carolina. There's enough to like here, especially considering that the retained position coaches on defense have largely overseen vast improvements within their units.

In the end, I think Eberflus is a net negative as the head man, a coach more likely to cost his team a game over the course of a season than to steal one. I desperately hope that he proves me wrong.

Offense

Oh boy. This is fun. Instead of me dreaming on a leap from Justin Fields, the Bears now have a #1 overall pick at QB and one with an elite pedigree to boot. Caleb Williams was an ultra-elite recruit coming out of Gonzaga High in DC, then a freshman superstar at Oklahoma, then a Heisman-winning sophomore at USC, and then still a superstar for a wobbly USC team as a junior. He was the consensus #1 pick in the 2024 Draft, and he will now be tasked with playing the role of franchise savior. Williams has been groomed for this for nearly his entire life. If anyone can do it, it's Williams. As a fan, I'm really looking forward to watching him create. As someone who watches a lot of football, I'm confused because he looks like a superstar QB, yet he plays for the Bears.

Thankfully, Williams has an elite receiving group around him to ease his transition to the NFL. DJ Moore is a true #1 WR. So is Keenan Allen. And Rome Odunze was a steal at #9 in the Draft, suggesting that he has #1 WR potential. It's about as soft a landing as possible. Tyler Scott looks fine as a #4.

The tight end spot got a big influx of talent when Gerald Everett accepted the #2 TE gig. I remain lukewarm on Cole Kmet as a plus TE; he simply drops too many easy balls, but he's not bad. Everett, however, is a decent, low-end #1 TE...so he's a huge plus as a #2. The TE group will desperately need a draftee in 2025, but that's an issue for another year. This year, the Kmet-Everett combo offers lots of mismatch opportunities. Marcedes Lewis will block and catch three passes on the year, two of them for touchdowns.

The running back room lacks a big ceiling, but the depth is tremendous, yielding a very high floor. I hated the D'Andre Swift signing; hopefully he impresses, especially as a pass catcher. If he doesn't, the drop off shouldn't be big as both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson have starter-level experience. Most importantly, though, is the presence of Swiss Army knife Velus Jones in the RB room. Most Bears fans hate Jones for what he isn't: he isn't a WR, he isn't a good value as a 3rd round pick, and he isn't a punt returner. It would be great if he was those things. However, I love Jones for what he is: a versatile, explosive threat with the ball in his hands, an exciting kick returner with the chance to shine under the new rules, and a likely four-phase special teams contributor. That's a really useful player, even if he's bad value at #71 in the 2022 Draft.

The offensive line offers a lot of promise, but there are admittedly a lot of variables in play here. Braxton Jones looks like an average LT and Darnell Wright should be at least an average RT, to the bookends are in good shape. OT depth, however, is a massive concern, especially to start the year. While Kiran Amegadjie projects as a long-term potential LT and Larry Borom comes with lots of experience, neither figures to be a viable help in the early going. Amegadjie is still working back from a significant quad injury suffered at Yale, and Borom is both (i) more of a guard, and (ii) on Injured Reserve. The interior OL has more options, but a much, much lower floor among the starters. Teven Jenkins is a star at LG...when he's on the field. Nate Davis might be a solid RG...when he's on the field. Ryan Bates could be a decent starting C...when he's on the field. All three have struggled with injuries, and the depth options aren't terribly inspiring. Backup C Coleman Shelton was a poor starter for the Rams last year, and both Matt Pryor and Bill Murray look like roster fodder at guard. The starting OL could be an average unit, but it's hard to see a higher ceiling whereas it's easy to see a lower floor.

Defense

It all starts up front on the defense...because that's where the big questions are. Montez Sweat is a fringe star at DE who proved to be an idyllic fit in the Eberflus defense after arriving from Washington last year. His health is paramount to the team's success. The other DEs are more confusing. Jake Martin is on IR, and both Daniel Hardy and Dominique Robinson barely made the roster. That means the Bears are looking to DeMarcus Walker, Darrell Taylor, and/or Austin Booker to produce opposite Sweat. Walker looks like a tweener who remains best suited for an interior role on third down. Taylor was available for a 6th round pick two weeks ago, so expecting a big impact seems foolish. So, it all comes down to Booker. I loved Booker in the Draft and am ecstatic that he's a Bear. However, that's largely because I think Booker can be a plus starter in 2026 and an average starter as soon as 2025 after he adds 15+ pounds to his 245-lbs. frame. He can probably contribute in a limited role in 2024, but the Bears might need him to play starter reps. *gulp*

The interior DL is very thin. Chris Williams was available for the equivalent of a 6th round pick two weeks ago (sound familiar?), so he shouldn't be counted on to play a big role. That puts big pressure on Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, and Zacch Pickens. Unfortunately, Pickens is banged up to start the year, and, even when healthy, he seems better suited to play the three technique spot. That's unfortunate because Pickens simply isn't as good as Dexter. There's incredible pressure on Dexter to take a big step and for Billings to play a ton of reps as the one technique given the lack of other options on the roster. If the Bears can successfully force opposing teams into obvious passing situations, I expect to see Walker and possibly even Taylor slide inside, taking some of the burden off of Billings in particular.

(Yes, it's funny that Billings is listed at 311 while Dexter is listed at *drumroll* 312. They carry their weight much, much differently.)

If the front four can produce at even an average rate, the defense has a chance to be a real strength. That starts at the second level, where T.J. Edwards was a star in 2023. Tremaine Edmunds retains the much higher ceiling even after a wobbly debut; thankfully, Edmunds made a handful of big plays and hopefully he can blossom in his second year in the system. At just 26, he should have plenty left in the tank. When a third LB is necessary, third-year man Jack Sanborn offers plenty. Second-year man Noah Sewell needs to get healthy. If he can do so, he should be able to push Sanborn for reps this year.

The biggest beneficiary of improved DL play, however, would be the secondary. This unit features a robust collection of experienced yet still young talent, and a little more help up front could help them reach their stratospheric ceiling. CB1 Jaylon Johnson is among the NFL's best, all while being one of five Bears DBs expected to play starter-level reps at age 25 or younger this year. He is joined in that regard by emerging leader S Jaquan Brisker, CB2 Tyrique Stevenson, CB3 Terell Smith, and nickel spiderman Kyler Gordon. Old man Kevin Byard replaces old man Eddie Jackson. The Bears surely hope that they get some semblance of the 2021 First-Team All-Pro version of Byard and not the 2023 version that looked dangerously close to being washed. The depth options here (CBs Josh Blackwell and Elijah Hicks; safeties Jaylon Jones and Jonathan Owens) are uninspiring with very low ceilings, but the big six are incredibly athletic and exciting.

It's quite confusing to see a Bears roster built to be strong in the back seven at the expense of the defensive line. Perhaps that's the new way to do things? It still looks strange to this Bears fan.

Special Teams

Cairo Santos lacks a big leg, but he has been extremely accurate. Long snapper could be a problem with Patrick Scales on IR. Thankfully, if the long snapper can get the ball to new punter Tory Taylor, the Aussie can shine as the true weapon he is.

The punt return game looks poor. Thankfully, the kick return game has a chance to be quite good if Jones can lead the way.

Schedule

Before making a season pick, here's the Bears' schedule for 2024:

1. Tennessee
2. @ Houston (Sunday Night Football)
3. @ Indianapolis
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Carolina
6. Jacksonville (London)
   
7. BYE
8. @ Washington
9. @ Arizona
10. New England
11. Green Bay
12. Minnesota
13. @ Detroit (Thanksgiving)
14. @ San Francisco
15. @ Minnesota (Monday Night Football)
16. Detroit
17. Seattle (Thursday Night Football)
18. @ Green Bay

Well. That's definitely a last-place schedule. I'm going to look at it by month.

September (2-2)

I don't like the opening day matchup. I think that Tennessee is good and, potentially, very good. Their pass rush will give the Bears trouble and QBs drafted #1 overall haven't won in their debuts for 15 straight games. So, the nightmare comes true: the Bears lose their opener in a close game (let's say L 23-17), then get handled by a superior Texans team in Houston (L 30-13) to fall to 0-2. Yikes. But never fear: Williams secures his first win with a strong showing in Indianapolis (W 27-20) and then lights up the Rams to push the team to .500 (W 38-13).

October (2-1)

October shapes up beautifully, especially if the Bears can reach it at 2-2 or better. The Bears should overwhelm Carolina (W 24-10), though I think they'll drop a close one in London to the Jaguars (L 28-24). The bye comes at a nice time, and the team gets back over .500 with a win in Washington (W 21-18).

November (2-3)

November is moving time. The Bears struggle and fall in a trip to Arizona (L 29-14), dropping to 4-4. Following the loss, GM Ryan Poles decides to feed his limping pass rush by adding a piece before the trade deadline. The biggest fish that might become available as studs from struggling teams -- Las Vegas' Maxx Crosby, Tennessee's Harold Landry, Los Angeles' Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, and New Orleans' Cam Jordan -- all come with significant salary cap complications that likely render a deal unfeasible. Instead, I think that Poles hunts for one of these five, ranging from my least favorite to my favorite target:

• Arden Key (TEN)
• I'm not sure if Key is a huge addition as he's likely still a specialist.
• Cost: 6th
• Chase Young (NO)
• Young is likely a rental again. The ceiling probably isn't huge anymore and the void years in his contract could prohibit a deal; I think the Bears would have to eat his future cap charges, making a deal untenable.
• Cost: 5th
• Jadeveon Clowney (CAR)
• Clowney looks like a good fit.
• Cost: 5th
• Tyree Wilson (LV)
• This is a bet on Wilson's pedigree and not his production to date. Crazy high ceiling still.
• Cost: 3rd
• Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN)
• I really like Van Ginkel and would've loved him this spring.
• Cost: 5th

Following the trade, the Bears recover with a rousing win over New England at home (W 30-20). Then Green Bay comes to town. Barf. A Packers blowout leads to some soul searching (L 37-10). Thankfully, the woeful Vikings come to town and prove to be the desired fix (W 24-9). Then, it's time for Thanksgiving in Detroit against the surging Lions. That goes poorly (L 28-16).

December (2-2)

The Bears entire December at 6-6, and a trip to San Francisco does them no favors as the 49ers roll (L 30-10). Minnesota remains bad, so despite a primetime trip, the Bears prevail on the road (W 20-14). The Lions have perennially struggled in Chicago, and that's especially true in December with Jared Goff at QB. However, I think that this year is different for Detroit, and the Lions sweep the Bears with a close win (L 29-27), dropping the Bears to 7-8. The Bears stay alive with a big win over Seattle on a quick week (W 31-23) to reach 8-8 and head into their finale with a chance to sneak into the playoffs.

January (0-1)

Unfortunately, that finale is a trip to Green Bay. Those don't go well. The Packers win big (L 34-13) to win the NFC North and eliminate the Bears. Yuck. Yuck yuck yuck.

Penn State Nittany Lions Football 2024 Season Preview and Big Ten Football Prediction

This time of year, my brain always shifts to football. At least, it always does when the Cubs are drifting into irrelevance.

Thankfully, the upcoming football season looks very exciting for me. A Bears preview will follow in the coming weeks; suffice it to say, that team looks fun with the potential to push for the postseason. But that's a story for another day.

Today, I focus on the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State football is many things. A consistently solid program. A successful recruiting operation. A non-elite program. But more than anything else, they are the largest beneficiary of the new 12-team Playoff. James Franklin struggled through his first two seasons at the helm in 2014-15. In the eight years that followed, however, Franklin's teams failed to make a four-team Playoff...but they would have qualified for a 12-team Playoff six times (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023)! The team's reputation surely would look a lot different.

That's all in the past. Now, in this new era of the 12-team Playoff, Penn State will be expected to qualify with regularity. And that begins with the 2024 Nittany Lions. So, what should we expect from the 2024 squad? That's much tougher to say than in the prior two years. Here's a look at the organization.

Coaching

We have to start here this year. While Coach Franklin has a decade under his belt at Penn State, his coaching staff looks much different this year. Highly successful DC Manny Diaz took the top gig at Duke, replaced by former Indiana HC Tom Allen. Allen enjoyed some unprecedented success with the Hoosiers, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a step down, despite Allen's chops as an LB coach. Former home run hire Mike Yurcich is out as OC, replaced by former Buffalo and Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki. Enjoying success in the Big 12 is hardly a quality prediction of Big Ten success ahead, but Nittany must hope that Kotelnicki flips that script. Finally, Justin Lustig comes aboard as the new Special Teams Coordinator. He'll need to get better production from the kickers while maintaining the extreme success of Riley Thompson's punting game.

Only one position group got a new position coach (except for the LBs) with Danny O'Brien replacing Yurcich as QB coach. No pressure, Danny. There is also lots of pressure on DL Coach Deion Barnes to perform, especially with a DT rotation that has underwhelmed for years. With Chop Robinson (21st overall) and Adisa Isaac (93rd overall) both off to the NFL, the DE group is much lighter than in year's past...but Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Amin Vanover, and Jameial Lyons bring plenty of pop on the edge. Barnes needs to get the DTs to play up.

Offense

Obviously the play of QB Drew Allar will go a long way to determining the fate of the 2024 Nittany Lions. The ceiling is high; very high. There's a reason Allar was the top-ranked QB in the Class of 2022: he's huge, his arm is elite, and he moves just well enough to keep defenses honest. That said...

I remain rather low on Allar. While the measurables are there, Allar looked terrible facing Ohio State, Michigan, and Ole Miss last year. He was extremely uncomfortable facing any pressure, a fact of life against elite competition. His accuracy is sneaky underwhelming, especially on the quick, horizontal passes that have been a staple of the Penn State offense in recent years. Add it all up and I think it's more likely that backup Beau Pribula replaces Allar as the starter this year than that Allar leads a raucous offensive performance against Ohio State on November 2nd. There's some praise for Pribula embedded in the prior sentence; Pribula evokes memories of Trace McSorley for a reason with big plays coming from his legs. At the very least, Pribula should get red zone snaps. Then again, it's not Allar's fault that Yurcich decided not to have the rocket-armed QB push the ball down the field.

If Allar pushes toward his ceiling, the team's ceiling kicks up in a big way. Importantly, I think Allar made the proper decision much more frequently than his predecessor did. There's a lot of value in that.

How does Allar produce? It would really help if this year's wide receivers played better than last year's wide receivers. The exodus of Keandre Lambert-Smith via the Portal doesn't help. They'll miss KLS, even though he vanished late last fall. He exploded in the Rose Bowl against Utah to end the 2022 season, then amassed an impressive 51 grabs for 645 yards over PSU's first nine games in 2023 through the Maryland contest. Then, almost nothing: 1/6 against Michigan, 0/0 against Rutgers, 1/22 against Michigan State, and 0/0 against Ole Miss.

Stepping into KLS's shoes as the new #1 WR: Harrison "Trey" Wallace III. Wallace's health is essential this year. He has top-notch speed and has produced, when he has been able to stay on the field. He has many of the same skills that KLS had, so he could prove to be a #1. The stakes are massive.

The rest of the WR corps requires a couple of guys stepping up into key roles. The biggest offseason addition was former Buckeye and Penn State recruiting loss Julian Fleming. If 2022 Fleming shows up at Penn State (34/533/6), the room looks pretty good. If he provides even more production, the sky is the limit. Fleming's inability to break through at OSU likely says more about OSU's WR room than it does about Fleming; he'll have a chance to make that the story this year. Penn State really missed the Mitchell Tinsley role last year, when Dante Cephas flopped via the Portal.

The remaining WRs come with lower ceilings than Fleming and Wallace, but there is plenty to dream on here. I had high hopes for Kaden Saunders, but he didn't do a lot last year, then stunk in the spring game. He took a lot of heat for being out of shape early in his career. 2024 is a make-or-break season for him. Liam Clifford has shown some flashes and could produce in the slot, but he'll need to be consistent given his relatively lower ceiling. Omari Evans comes with big speed and big-play ability, but he hasn't been able to hold a job. Penn State desperately needs a couple of WRs to step up to reach their goals as a team.

Thankfully for the Nittany Lions, the offensive floor for the team should be very, very high on the strength of the (i) tight end room, and (ii) rushing attack. Tyler Warren's return gives Penn State a good senior starter, a good mid-career #2 in Khalil Dinkins, and two young studs who will push their way into the lineup in RS FR Andrew Rappleyea and true FR Luke Reynolds. The well remains flush.

The offensive line is very interesting. After years of dreadful offensive line play undermining the offense as a whole, Phil Trautwein's units have produced consistently. A trio of 2023 starters are now pros: LT Olu Fashanu (#11), RT Caedan Wallace (#68), and C Hunter Nourzad (#159). The dirty secret on this trio: they were better draft prospects than they were college linemen, especially the OTs. Replacing three starters is always a little scary, but new LT Drew Shelton got a ton of reps over the last two years and the RT spot has two capable starters between emerging star Anthony Donkoh and experienced Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci. RG Saleem Wormley has been the best OL on the team and comes with multiple years of starting experience. While Vega Ione hasn't been a full-time starter at LG, he played 648 highly-productive snaps last year. The depth looks great up front at OT and G, even if most Penn State fans hope not to see former 5* J'Ven Williams at LT, high 4* Alex Birchmeier at G, or veteran Lackawanna transfer JB Nelson at either spot.

In my mind, the diciest spot is center, where RS SR Nick Dawkins gets his chance to shine. If Dawkins can produce similar to Nourzad before him, the offense can thrive. If not, the ceiling is lowered and/or it could put true FR Cooper Cousins in line to play a big role. Cousins has really impressed in camp, but starting a true FR at the pivot cannot be the goal.

Of course, we've saved the best for last: the running backs. RB depth isn't what it has been in year's past, but the top two of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should compare favorably to any other tandem in the country. Hopefully true FR Quinton Martin forces his way into snaps, too, but Singleton and Allen should run the show. They've been very successful as pass catchers, too, so Kotelnicki should enjoy deploying his new toys.

Defense

The Penn State defense has been remarkably productive throughout James Franklin's tenure. In light of that, it is unsurprising that his two most recent defensive coordinators took Power Four head coaching jobs with Brent Pry at Virginia Tech and Manny Diaz now at Duke. If Tom Allen maintains this production, he could find himself with another opportunity to run a program in the coming years.

Allen's most important job: to work with Deion Barnes to get production out of his defensive tackle rotation. D'Von J-Thomas (formerly D'Von Ellies) will lead the way with three other highly experienced vets alongside him: Coziah Izzard, Hakeem Beamon, and Zane Durant. After playing at very low weights in prior years -- Beamon played as low as 260 pounds in 2022! -- this group now has Beamon at 285, Durant at 290, and two players in the 300s (J-Thomas and Izzard). Penn State lacked the girth up front to hold up against the most powerful OLs in the Big Ten in prior years. And they have a surprise addition: former DE Smith Vilbert bulked up to 292 to play on the inside this year. If he retained a chunk of his quickness, he could change the story inside. This group now has the weight to hold up against beefy rushing attacks; will the production follow? There's no help coming from lower on the depth chart, so it's all on their shoulders.

The rest of the Penn State defense requires fewer words because, well, they should be great and possibly better than that. It starts at defensive end. Vilbert likely won't be missed outside. Dani Dennis-Sutton will lead the way after generating absurd amounts of pressure last year. With his frame and production, he's likely headed to the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft...where he may well be joined by converted LB Adbul Carter. Carter has looked and played like Micah Parsons Jr. thus far, but given the need for elite production at DE, he moved up in the spring. If Carter clicks, the pass rush should remain elite. #3 DE Amin Vanover has been very productive in limited reps; here's hoping he continues to do so with more snaps.

The depth at DE took a pair of hits recently. Oft-injured veteran Zuriah Fisher appears lost for the season and emerging true SO Jameial Lyons is serving an indefinite suspension that may end his career at Penn State is no longer enrolled at Penn State following some type of serious off-the-field matter. In light of Vilbert's shift, Fisher's injury, and Lyons' suspension dismissal, the #4 DE spot is a question mark, but that 4th DE doesn't figure to get a ton of reps with how the roster is constructed.

The linebacker group isn't the deepest that Penn State has featured over the last few decades, but it is plenty strong at the top. Leading the way is emerging star true SO Tony Rojas, who forced his way into starting-level snaps last season. Rojas is ready to explode. He has steady RS JR Kobe King next to him manning the middle. The third LB spot is more interesting. Here's my expectation, though this hasn't yet been made explicit: when facing beefy, run-heavy attacks, Carter will slide back to OLB with Vilbert kicking outside to DE. Conversely, against pass-happy offenses, Penn State will play a lot of 4-2-5 with King and Rojas as the only two LBs or a 4-3 with Dom DeLuca getting the third LB spot. DeLuca is a nice college football story, a walk-on who plays big reps, but he's going to be wildly outmatched against top competition. It will be essential to limit or even eliminate his reps against Ohio State.

Linebacker depth is very poor entering the season. The top two OLB reserves are both out. Keon Wylie suffered an injury in spring ball and Kaveion Keys was suspended related to the same incident that claimed Lyons has also been dismissed stemming from the same matter that claimed Lyons. Inside, Tyler Elsdon suffers from many of the same shortcomings as DeLuca. Thus, should King or Rojas to down, a heavy load should fall on the shoulders of Ta'Mere Robinson. Robinson is an MLB, but he has the athleticism necessary to run with top competition.

Despite lacking depth at LB and potentially at DE, the story couldn't be more different in the defensive backfield. Despite the top three CBs from 2023 now plying their trade in the pros (Kalen King, Johnny Dixon, and Dae'quan Hardy), the defensive backfield should be elite in 2024. Losing budding star King Mack to Alabama in the Portal hurt, but the rest of the safeties return and were the strength of last year's defense. Kevin Winston Jr. leads the way, but Zakee Wheatley and Jaylen Reed offer plus production, too. This should enable Penn State to bring along their four freshman safeties slowly (RS FR DaKaari Nelson and Lamont Payne along with true FR Dejuan Lane and Vaobue Toure). Reed figures to get a lot of time in the slot, so Nelson in particular could get a bit of run this year.

The CBs are very exciting. True SOs Elliot Washington II and Zion Tracy would be expected on the two-deep in most years, but they instead find themselves as the #5 and #6 CBs this year, thanks to success in the Portal. Veteran Cam Miller figures to hold down one job with surprise Georgia transfer AJ Harris opposite him. 2023 Portal steal Audavion Collins should get plenty of playing time while old man Jalen Kimber offers a reliable #4. This group is deep and has plenty of ceiling, especially if Harris emerges. If either of the Jackonsville-based freshmen force their way into playing time, this group could be scary good.

Special Teams

Gabe Nwosu should boom his kickoffs. Riley Thompson's punting will remain a welcome sight. But Penn State's kicking game has a chance to be much, much worse, given the uncertainty between Sander Sahaydak and Chase Meyer. Hopefully one emerges. Singleton and Martin will scare plenty of teams returning kickoffs, but the punt returner gig is a question, too.

Schedule

As we head into a season pick, here's the Penn State schedule for 2024:

• @ West Virginia
• Bowling Green
• BYE
• Kent State
• Illinois
• UCLA
• @ USC
• BYE
• @ Wisconsin
• Ohio State
• Washington
• @ Purdue
• @ Minnesota
• Maryland

The most jarring part of this schedule is who isn't on it: Michigan and Oregon. It's possible that this new 12-team playoff era will feature the CFP Committee rethinking its longstanding preference for teams that don't lose over teams that play hard games, but until that happens, loss avoidance remains paramount.

The opener at West Virginia figures to be a tough opener. This has been a theme for Penn State in recent seasons, opening with Power Four road games in 2021 (Wisconsin), 2022 (Purdue), and now 2024 after hosting the Mountaineers last year. West Virginia was sneaky tough last year and Garrett Greene has produced a ton for WVU. OL stars Zach Frazier and Doug Nester are gone, but a pair of Penn State recruiting misses will power the offense in star LT Wyatt Milum and WR Rodney Gallagher. WVU ranks 34th in SP+ coming out of the spring, one spot ahead of new Big Ten foe Washington. That PSU-Washington contest would look mighty different in Seattle. Vegas set Washington's over/under at 6.5 wins, giving Penn State fans a sense for where West Virginia might slot as a conference foe. Penn State is appropriately favored over West Virginia by 10.5 on the road. 10.5 is a lot...but it's not that much. That opener is scary.

The following month is far less interesting. Illinois can try to play bully ball but lacks the horses with which to do it. UCLA could be feisty this year, but they have to travel 2,500 miles for the game and face Oregon and LSU in the two prior weeks; the Bruins will likely be licking their wounds when they arrive at Beaver Stadium on October 5th.

The season kicks into high gear for Penn State after that UCLA game. The trip to USC looks scary on paper: it's a road game against a talented roster where Franklin will likely be outcoached by Lincoln Riley. But this brings us to a key understanding about this current era of Penn State football: Penn State is designed to play with OSU, USC, and SEC teams, not bully ball teams. That means they play better than expected against certain types of elite competition, but they struggle against teams that want to punch you in the mouth, like Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, certain iterations of Michigan State, Minnesota, and even Illinois.

In light of that, I like Penn State's chances to run through USC. The Penn State defense is well designed to slow the USC offense and USC's defense will likely have a brutal day stopping the Nittany Lions. Add it all up and I think Penn State reaches their second bye week at 6-0.

Coming out of the bye, things could get scary in a hurry. Wisconsin should be red hot when Penn State comes to Madison; the Badgers start October hosting Purdue, travelling to Rutgers, and then hosting Northwestern. That is a tough matchup for the Nittany Lions even before accounting for the style of play issues. Luke Fickell is building up the Wisconsin program, and after a September slate that features contests against Alabama and USC, they could still be looking for their marquee win on October 26th. I'm afraid that the Badgers will get it.

If Penn State loses to Wisconsin, they'll need to regroup in a hurry with the ultra-elite Buckeyes coming to town for what will stupidly be a noon kick. Unfortunately, James Franklin's teams have routinely flopped following the season's first loss. Here are their results under Franklin:

• 2014: LOSS 13-18 @ Michigan (5-7)
• 2015: WIN 31-30 @ Maryland (3-9)
• 2016: WIN 29-26 in OT v. Minnesota (9-4)
• 2017: LOSS 24-27 @ Michigan State (10-3) 
• 2018: LOSS 17-21 v. Michigan State (7-6)
• 2019: WIN 34-27 v. Indiana (8-5)
• 2021: LOSS 18-20 in 9OT v. Illinois (5-7)
• 2022: WIN 45-17 v. Minnesota (9-4)
• 2023: WIN 33-24 v. Indiana (3-9)

Some of those results get much worse upon further inspection. Penn State was a 9-point favorite at Michigan State in 2017, a 14.5-point favorite hosting Indiana in 2019, and a 24-point favorite against Illinois in 2021. Last year's result might be the most striking. Penn State was favored by 30.5 at home against a reeling Indiana squad on its way to bottoming out, but the game was tied at 24 with two minutes to play.

So what happens when the post-loss contest is against arguably college football's best team? I'd rather not find out. But it won't be pretty.

Now despondent following consecutive losses, I think Penn State will rip through Washington in the Whiteout (hopefully a 3:30pm kick or later) and Purdue, and I think Senior Day against Maryland will be a cakewalk in spite of the sleepy stadium that always features on Thanksgiving weekend. It's that November 23 trip to Minneapolis that has me nervous.

Minnesota is a bad matchup for Penn State. Yes, Penn State obliterated Minnesota in their last meeting during the Whiteout in 2022, but that game was played against reserve true FR QB Athan Kaliakmanis with the much better but concussed Tanner Morgan unvailable. The Gophers struggled to a 6-7 season in 2023, but PJ Fleck has never endured consecutive losing seasons as a head coach. Bully ball + November road game + Fleck's recovery season = yikes. I think the Gophers take this one and push Penn State down to a horribly disappointing 9-3 season that does not include a Playoff bid.

I do expect Penn State to be favored in every game except Ohio State, so 9-3 would be an underwhelming outcome.

Chicago Bears 2024 NFL Draft Review

I wrote a lot about potential scenarios for the Bears in the 2024 NFL offseason. While free agency featured its share of hits (Jaylon Johnson's extension, Gerald Everett's addition, the Keenan Allen trade) and misses (D'Andre Swift's deal, the Justin Fields trade), the draft also featured almost innumerable permutations. In the end, GM Ryan Poles took the easy path ahead, selecting the best player on his board at each spot. So, how did he do?

Before we start, recall that there's no grade inflation here. C is a solid, average move. B is a good move. A is a truly exceptional move. D is bad. F is a failure.

#1: USC QB Caleb Williams

The prince that was promised. While the Fields trade featured a galling return, that wasn't Williams' fault. He was the no-brainer choice at the top spot and the Bears' best hope to plug the hole at the QB spot that has plagued the franchise throughout its history.

Williams wasn't a flash-in-the-pan pick. He was an ultra-elite prospect coming out of Gonzaga High in Washington, DC, ranking either first or second among QBs by the major services depending on how they rated Quinn Ewers. Williams then starred as a freshman at Oklahoma, won the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore at USC, and actually improved his statistical output as a junior despite USC's struggles. Anyone has watched Big 12 football in the past two decades has a good feel for USC's defense in 2023. Again, not Williams' fault.

Here's hoping he puts the Bears on his back and carries the franchise to greatness. He has a solid offensive line and an elite group of pass catchers in his rookie season as part of a team that also features an elite back-seven on defense and...a defensive line. The Bears have a chance to win in 2024, and Williams will have a lot to say about whether they do.

Regardless, this is a superb pick.

Grade: A

#9: Washington WR Rome Odunze
Writing this a few months later, it's still hard to believe that Odunze made it to the Bears at #9. NFL.com (3rd), FOX (5th), PFF (6th), ESPN (8th), and CBS (9th) all graded Odunze as an elite WR prospect, so getting him at #9 looks pretty good in a vacuum.

Of course, none of this happens in a vacuum. We're living in a world where contracts for productive NFL WRs are exploding. As a result, the value proposition of getting a starting-caliber WR on a rookie deal presents especially tremendous efficiency.

On top of that, Odunze is an idyllic fit on this Bears roster. While Keenan Allen is a great security blanket for Williams in his rookie year, he doesn't figure to have a long-range fit as the #2 WR...which Odunze does. Odunze won't be forced into a starring role as a rookie, but so many contenders have propelled themselves to success by having strong depth at the WR spot which the Bears might be able to do with Odunze well overqualified as a #3 WR. Finally, Odunze's frame profiles wonderfully as a bigger option opposite DJ Moore.

Add it all up and this is a grand slam, accented even further by the fact that Poles was able to get Odunze while standing pat at #9 (despite his attempt to trade a 2025 4th to Atlanta to move up one spot). Poles gets graded on the actual outcome, not his offer to pay more for Odunze.

Grade: A+

#75: Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie
I love this pick so much. Amegadjie feels like the kind of prospect that the Packers have targeted for years. A plus physical profile combined with dominance at his level made Amegadjie intriguing. The fact that he has the frame and experience at LT figured to push him up into the second round and out of reach for the Bears, especially when factoring in his game experience in the interior, too; surely someone would jump at Amegadjie as an early-career starter somewhere with the ability to play everywhere on the line.

Of course, that's not how the Draft went. Perhaps scared away by Amegadjie's quad injury last fall, he made it to #75 and Poles astutely nabbed a really important piece for the Bears in 2024 (Amegadjie could start at RG or even LT at some point this year) and beyond (Amegadjie projects as a multi-spot starter moving ahead).

Rankings for Amegadjie were much more varied than for Williams and Odunze. CBS (116th) and ESPN (114th) saw him as a 4th rounder while PFF (57th) and NFL.com (64th) saw him in the 2nd. Only FOX (92nd) put him in the 3rd. That's probably about right given his profile.

But I'm very high on Amegadjie. If the Bears had a 2nd rounder, I would've been very happy with Amegadjie anywhere from about 40th overall onward. At #75, this is a great pick.

Grade: A-

#122: Iowa P Tory Taylor
Well this sure is a way to use the Robert Quinn pick!

The Bears desperately needed an upgrade at punter in light of Trenton Gill's performance over the past two seasons. Perhaps surprisingly, Poles found this upgrade by getting older at the position. I am very excited to see Taylor punt in a Bears uniform as both a former specialist and as someone who did not enjoy Gill's tenure. Taylor was a savant at Iowa; hopefully he brings that to Chicago.

Unfortunately, the value proposition monster rears its ugly head here. This Bears roster is not without holes. There was a gaping hole at DE at the time of the Taylor pick. I was very disappointed that #122 wasn't Kansas DE Austin Booker. He would've been a great fit, and I would've been OK with Booker at #75 given his projection and fit. More on that later.

In the coming years, I'll be watching the careers of Washington State S Jaden Hicks (a favorite of mine throughout my Draft prep), Iowa State CB T.J. Tampa, Clemson DE Xavier Thomas, Ohio State TE Cade Stover, and Louisville RB Isaac Guerendo, all players at positions where the Bears need talent who were taken in the next 15 selections.

I remain excited for Taylor and appreciate that he will play an important, immediate role on the 2024 Bears, but the value proposition is poor.

Grade: C-

#144: Kansas DE Austin Booker
Here's the ultimate value discussion. On one hand, Booker is an exciting prospect at a position of desperate need with the ceiling and projection of an NFL starter. He should be the #3 DE in 2024 with an eye on stepping into the #2 spot opposite Montez Sweat by 2025. He'll need to add a bit of size to reach his projection, but there's reason to think he can do that. While he weighed 240 lbs at the Combine, he bulked up to 253 at his Pro Day while running a faster 40-yard dash. His broad jump matches the explosion that showed up in his limited film after transferring from Minnesota. If he can stick at 253, he should be playable in a decent-sized role this year. Unfortunately, the Bears list him at 245, so we'll see where he lands this fall. Still, the value is strong...

...until, on the other hand, we see the trade cost. Poles made my least favorite type of trade, trading a 2025 4th for a 2024 5th. I know that this is the going rate for these types of trades, but I still hate them. While the time value of getting next year's pick this year is incredibly impactful to Poles, the Bears figure to stick around for a few generations, making this kind of move the worst type. While trading next year's 4th for an early 5th this year is the least-objectionable version of this deal, it remains objectionable. The Lions deal for Giovanni Manu -- next year's 3rd for a late 4th this year -- is probably the single worst version I've seen of this kind of deal, so that softens the blow for Poles.

So, I'm stuck between really liking just about everything about Booker the prospect and hating this kind of trade. The trade comp limits the value. Booker alone here would be a B+/A-, but the trade knocks down the grade while saying nothing about Booker himself.

A final thought: thank you, Falcons GM Terry Fontenot, for enabling the Bears to get both Odunze and Booker between their 2024 1st and 2025 4th rounders. We'll see where Booker's career goes, but this could turn into a real "what if" for the ages in Chicago.

Grade: C

I was very harsh on Poles' actions in free agency. I think he deserved that critique.

His Draft weekend was basically the opposite. Poles added key players that fit this roster really well, ensuring that the most important additions (Odunze and Amegadjie) help support Williams directly. I love it.

Overall Grade: A-

Chicago Bears Free Agency Evaluations and 2024 NFL Draft Scenarios

With Draft Weekend fast approaching, I'm nearing the end of my time giving the PFF Mock Draft tool a daily workout. While I'll miss getting to utilize the tool, the hundreds of mock drafts that I've completed over the past few months have given me a clear set of thoughts about the Draft.

Of course, the draft comes on the heels of free agency. GM Ryan Poles has undertaken most of his team building activities already. In advance of next week's Draft, here's my thoughts on the Bears' non-minimum contracts forays into the free agency period followed by Draft scenarios evaluated from best-case to worst-case scenario.

FREE AGENCY

First, a reminder: there's no grade inflation here. A C is a solid, average move. A B is a good move. An A is a truly exceptional move. A D is bad. An F is a failure. Let's go!

Bears trade #144 to Buffalo for OG Ryan Bates

I love Ryan Bates. I love his tummy rub celebration with Trace McSorley that he did numerous times after protecting Trace's blind side for years. I love that he carved out a niche in the NFL. I even love that Poles decided to make a play for Bates as an RFA during his initial offseason as GM. I like the Bates contract in the Bears' hands with two unguaranteed years at $4M apiece.

I do not, however, love trading #144 for a player who figures to be a reserve for a team with a rookie QB. Poles needs to hoard picks...yet here he is trading away yet another pick. Bates was a cut candidate in Buffalo too, so while his contract provides good value in this market, the trade negates the net value coming to the Bears and then some.

Grade: D

Bears sign CB Jaylon Johnson to a 4-year, $76M deal

Johnson hasn't been the most consistent CB in the NFL during his four years as a pro, and he comes with a history of back injuries. That said, he possesses true top-of-the-league skills and he turned 24 this month. Keeping a guy like Johnson around is a slam dunk choice, even with a functional three-year guarantee.

Grade: B

Bears sign S Kevin Byard to a 2-year, $15M deal

This move I like, too. Functionally, this is a one-year, $8M deal for the 31-year-old former All Pro. Byard's play slipped last year, but he was still a real starter and looks like an ideal bridge candidate for the Bears. Ideally, Poles will draft a successor FS in the 3rd or 4th round of the draft, giving the rookie a chance to come along slowly while Byard holds the job.

He's no star, but he looks like a solid citizen at an affordable, market rate in the non-Xavier McKinney FS market.

Grade: B-

Bears sign RB D'Andre Swift to a 3-year, $24.5M deal

Woof. Not a good place to start the tampering period.

Pouring money into middle class free agents is a dicey proposition to begin with. Pouring money into RBs is a terrible idea. Pouring money into a middle class RB? Big yikes. A multi-year (two) guarantee to a middle class RB in free agency? There's no saving grace here.

Swift is 1.5 years younger than D'Onta Foreman. Beyond that, I can't tell the difference here, except that Swift got $15.3M guaranteed and Foreman got a veteran minimum deal.

Grade: F

Bears sign TE Gerald Everett to a 2-year, $12M deal

Love this. Everett presents an ideal TE2. The fact that he came on an extremely affordable one-year, $6.5M deal makes this move tremendous. The depth chart at TE is non-existent behind Cole Kmet, and rookie TEs are classically slow to adjust to life in the NFL. Everett should serve as a nice security blanket for Caleb Williams. He brings so much value to this roster.

Grade: A

Bears sign S Jonathan Owens to a 2-year, $4.75M deal

This kind of deal doesn't hurt in a big way...but there's no value. Owens isn't good. Owens is 28 and has never received a contract above the league minimum, yet Poles offered him a functional $2.6M guarantee. Yuck. Hopefully Owens has to fight to make the roster, which would make $1.5M of dead money left behind even worse. There's no upside and a bit of downside. Just find the street free agent instead.

Grade: F

Bears sign LB Amen Ogbongbemiga to a 1-year, $2.1M deal

It's good to sign special teamers. Cool.

Grade: C

Bears sign C Coleman Shelton to a 1-year, $3.5M deal

I'm not a big fan of Shelton. His ceiling is low and his floor is, too. That said, Shelton comes with meaningful starting experience, he's cheap, and he offers protection in case Poles can't find a starting C in the Draft.

Shelton being the starting C in September would be bad. But he'd be better than Lucas Patrick or Cody Whitehair.

Grade: C-

Bears trade QB Justin Fields to Pittsburgh for a 2025 6th round pick

Barf. Barf barf barf. Much electronic ink has been spilled on the Fields trade. I'm fine with Poles trading Fields given his desire to reset at QB and his belief that Fields can't be the guy to get the Bears over the hump. OK.

But there has to be value. And there's no value here. This trade values Fields as less than Mac Jones. That's a joke. If this was the market rate, I would've preferred to see Poles announce that Fields was the starter for 2024, that the Bears would bring Williams along slowly, and then trade Fields only after another team (i) struck out on their search for a new QB, or (ii) had a QB suffer an injury during the season. A future 6th is basically nothing and the condition is likely to bump this pick into a 4th. If it does, the trade will look even worse as a future 4th for a starting NFL QB is a truly horrendous deal.

I appreciate the locker room dynamic disaster of keeping the very-popular Fields in house while beginning the transition to Williams.

The grade reflects Poles' aggregate handling of the Fields situation.

Grade: F (if there was a lower grade, this move would receive that)

Bears trade #110 to Los Angeles Chargers for WR Keenan Allen

Yes please! Allen is 31 and heading for free agency this offseason...which means that Poles acquired a second #1 WR entering the final contract year of his career for just $23.1M this year. Again: yes please! The free agent WR class was a disaster and the Draft is risky. Allen is not risky. This is a great acquisition, limited in value only by the fact that the Bears need to allocate $23.1M of their cap to a 31-year-old.

Grade: A-

FREE AGENCY REVIEW

The individual moves were graded above, but giving a comprehensive view of free agency requires considering moves made and unmade.

In advance of free agency, Poles had a few essential tasks to complete, as follows:

1. Acquire a new, good starting C.
2. Find a DE2 to start opposite Montez Sweat.
3. Replace Eddie Jackson at FS.
4. Find a starting-caliber WR.

Uh oh. It's clear that Connor Williams' ACL tear torpedoed his market, but quality starting C options remained. Poles passed. OK.

The Bears' current DE2 is a misplaced DT (DeMarcus Walker). The current DE3 is probably minimum-salary vet Jake Martin. Not good!

The Byard signing makes me happy enough and the Allen trade is a big win.

Unfortunately, the Bears still have a number of needs, and Poles has continued his habit of trading picks for players on expiring deals. As a result, my dreams for having a cache of picks on hand to fill in the roster around Williams are gone. The cap space is gone. The end results are good in ways but they're below expectations thus far. The grade does get boosted by the Everett signing and Allen trade.

FREE AGENCY PERIOD GRADE: D+

Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason: FINAL (March 2024) Edition

Free agency kicks off on Monday afternoon. Buckle up. Here we go.

Internal Decisions
S Eddie Jackson ($5.58M dead cap) and G Cody Whitehair ($4.104M) were cut earlier this offseason. Somewhat surprisingly, RB Travis Homer was not. The Bears are currently slated to carry a dead cap of $10.543M into free agency. I actually think that Velus Jones Jr. will stick around as a special teamer, WR, or even converted RB. We'll see. Velus is a plus KR when it gets cold and kickoffs don't carry the endzone in Chicago. That's nice in December and could be clutch in January if the Bears ever play into January again.

Jaylon Johnson is now subject to the franchise tag of $19.802M. And Ryan Bates has been acquired with a $4M cap hit.

But wait a minute! As a result of his early-career playing time, OT Larry Borom received a PPE escalation to a $3.116M base salary. He's getting cut, yielding an additional $83K of dead money.
With an adjusted cap of $260.327M and after allocating (i) $10.626M to dead money, (ii) $4M to the practice squad, (iii) holding back $12M to account for draft cap hits over the minimum, and (iv) accounting for $192.227M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter free agency with approximately $41.474M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Justin Fields
I was previously at 80/20 to take Caleb Williams. I'm now at 99/1. Williams will come to Chicago...

...which means that Justin Fields needs a new home. This is going to get seriously tricky. The Bears are incentivized to hold onto Fields until late April, when some team is unable to fill their QB hole via free agency or the draft. But that's risky and in extremely poor form related to Fields, who has been an exemplary citizen in Chicago. Instead, I think Poles pulls off a deal after free agency begins but before the draft, with the following teams in the running with the most likely first and the longest shot last:

1. Atlanta. The Atlanta native goes home to form a terrifying rushing attack.
2. New England. Picking #3 and in desperate need of a reset, New England could lean into their rushing offense.
3. New Orleans. They have no plan. Fields' speed would play up in a dome.
4. Las Vegas. They were #2 on the list until Luke Getsy signed on to be their new offensive coordinator. He makes a ton of sense there but for Getsy.
5. Denver. They don't have any picks. They'll probably look for their next QB in the draft given their timeline.
6. Pittsburgh. Their QB room is a mess. Mike Tomlin always wins. This one makes a ton of sense unless Russell Wilson will show up for free.
7. New York Giants. They're in a tough spot, wedded to a terrible Daniel Jones for another year and in need of an offensive restructure.

That brings up the matter of Fields' trade value. On one hand, Fields has never been a plus passer in the NFL, stunting his value. On the other hand, Fields is an ultra-elite runner and has improved as a passer each year as the supporting cast has improved around him. Further helping his value: numerous teams are in need of a QB upgrade and it's pretty easy to make the argument that Fields would be better in many other, non-Chicago offenses, especially having undergone plenty of NFL seasoning with the Bears. I previously thought that the Bears could get a 1st for Fields, but that ship appears to have sailed. I'll continue to rely on the PFF trade tool, so the return will surely be less than that and is reflected below.

Trading Fields would net an additional $3.223M in cap space, bringing the Bears to $44.697M.

Free Agency
The Bears have four genuinely massive needs in free agency with options listed in order of my preference:

1. Center. After terrible play at the pivot for years, it's time for a real starter.
1. Connor Williams, Lloyd Cushenberry, Andre James, Aaron Brewer
2. Defensive Line. The Bears need an impact player up front. It could be a 3 technique DT or a DE.
1. DTs: Christian Wilkins, Chris Jones, Leonard Williams, Mo Hurst, Shelby Harris
2. DEs: Danielle Hunter, Jadeveon Clowney, Za'Darius Smith, A.J. Epenesa, Derek Barnett, Chase Young (short contract)
3. Free Safety. With Eddie Jackson gone, the Bears need a starter next to Jaquan Brisker. It's a great year to need a FS given the plethora of safeties that hit free agency or were released.
1. Xavier McKinney, Justin Simmons, Geno Stone, Jordan Poyer
4. #2/#3 Wide Receiver. Behind D.J. Moore, the cupboard is bare.
1. Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Boyd

The jump in the salary cap really complicates matters for teams that planned to spend big in free agency, like the Bears. Because the cap came in nearly $10M above expectation, numerous teams now have the space to swim in the deep end. This will put significant upward pressure on the free agent market and limit Chicago's ability to splurge. Signing Wilkins or Jones would be the best-case scenario in free agency, but neither signing seems particularly likely.

With all of that said, here we go with projections from PFF:

• Franchise tag for CB Jaylon Johnson (1/$19.802M) while attempting to extend him.
• Will Johnson get extended? Hard to say.
• Sign DE Za'Darius Smith (2/$24M, $19M guaranteed).
• I'd much prefer to find a DT with skills and cost akin to Smith given my strong preference for DE over DT in this draft class, but Smith changes the defensive outlook. He's the right fit.
• Sign WR Curtis Samuel (2/$17M with $11M guaranteed)
• Sign C Connor Williams (3/$22.5M with $12.5M guaranteed)
• Williams is by far the top option, with his contract mitigated by his December ACL tear.
• Sign S Geno Stone (2/$13MM with $7.25M guaranteed)
• I really like the safeties available in the draft, so a short-term safety makes sense here.
• Sign TE Austin Hooper (1/$2M)
• Sign RB J.K. Dobbins (1/$2M)
• Oregon's Bucky Irving is basically the only RB I like in this class and even he would only make sense in the 4th. Thus, take a shot on Dobbins.

The most important goals this offseason are (i) keeping a home-grown star, (ii) bringing in a veteran starting C after years of awful play at the pivot, and (iii) adding another boost to the pass rush. Johnson, Williams, and Smith check those boxes. It's a good year to need a pass rushing boost, and while adding a star like Josh Allen, Brian Burns, or Danielle Hunter would be great, there's plenty of appeal to adding a second-tier pass rush specialist like Smith. Bryce Huff, scary as he is, would also be exciting.

Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $38.5M of cap space before accounting for lower first-year cap hits and, thus, utilize net cap space of just $33.01M after accounting for the minimum salary players replaced by the above signees. This should leave plenty for the draft class, even with some trades.

Justin Fields, Again
I don't think that Poles will ultimately wait until late April to trade Fields. Instead, he'll deal him sometime in late March or early April, as follows:

• Falcons Receive: QB Justin Fields, #123, and a 2025 6th (MIA)
• Bears Receive: #43 and #74

Draft
The main purpose for this article, as it is every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using the Pro Football Focus mock draft tool.

Here we go again for the last time before free agency.

#1: USC QB Caleb Williams
The Williams hype machine is in full force. Williams has a true #1 pick pedigree after half a decade of being the top QB in his class (alongside Quinn Ewers) dating to his time at Gonzaga HS in Washington, DC alongside star Penn State LT Olu Fashanu. Williams has every bit the arm that Fields has, and while his running ability is a tick below Fields, it's plenty helpful. Add in that Williams can grow with a young, improving offensive core in Chicago and the future is bright. I have no doubt that Williams will win over the Bears' locker room. He's a dynamic playmaker and those guys tend to win fans, even if the initial adjustment from the wildly-popular Fields is bumpy.

Bears trade #9 to New York Giants for #39, #47, and a 2025 1st
All four of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, and Brock Bowers were off the board, so I took the nuclear option, adding a pair of 2nds while punting this year's 1st to next year. The Giants are unlikely to be a great squad in 2024, so this should be a pretty decent 2025 1st.

#39: Minnesota S Tyler Nubin
I wanted to trade down again and planned to do so. But then Nubin was available, surprisingly slipping out of the 1st round. Boom. He likely kicks the newly-signed Stone to a 3rd safety role. Nubin is that good. All of a sudden, the safety room looks great!

Bears trade #43 to Jacksonville for #48 and #96, and a 2025 6th
I liked the names on the board here with three DEs available. Picking again at #47, I loved getting my hands on #96 in this deal.

#47: Penn State DE Chop Robinson
Robinson isn't going to last this long, especially after his Combine showing. But if he does, largely due to his limited sack production in the blue and white? Taking best player available dictates that he has to be the guy here. He's too darn good, even with Sweat and Smith already on board and leading the way.

One impact of loading up at DE: DeMarcus Walker kicks back inside, where he enjoyed significantly more success with Tennessee in 2022. This mitigates the need to find DT depth on draft weekend.

Bears trade #48 to Tennessee for #107, a 2025 2nd, a 2025 3rd, and a 2025 4th
Man, I love this one. Delaying this pick to 2025 netted a 3rd and two 4ths. This is how the Bears add depth.

#74: USC WR Brendan Rice
Rice is a great addition for Williams, bringing pedigree, familiarity, and physique. But he's not my favorite WR...

#75: Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley
I think I'd take Corley in the 2nd. I love him so much. He's a compact ball of explosiveness.

#96: Houston OT Patrick Paul
There's almost no chance Paul gets this far, but if he does, he has to be the pick. He features many of the same benefits as Braxton Jones with good production. Paul immediately becomes an ideal reserve OT with the ability to take over at LT.

#107: Arkansas C Beaux Limmer
I don't love Limmer, but he's good value in this spot and fills out the offensive line room wonderfully. Miami DT Leonard Taylor would've otherwise been the pick, but he's tumbling in value this draft season.

Bears trade #111 to Las Vegas for #113 and #190
OK.

Bears trade #113 to New England for #136, a 2025 4th, and a 2025 7th
This one is a bigger deal and is the least enjoyable move I made in this entire mock. Delaying this pick to 2025 returned some value...but not a ton, really. Perhaps I should've made this pick. Oh well.

#136: Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott
Well, I considered using #113 on Sinnott. That would've been fine. His testing was basically akin to Sam LaPorta. He'd be a great addition.

After taking Sinnott, I attempted to swing a deal to get another 5th so I could take Clemson DE Xavier Thomas, but he came off the board a few picks later, nullifying that plan.

Bears trade a 2025 6th, a 2025 6th (JAX), and a 2025 7th (NE) to Washington for #181 and #220
This is bad value. But there were two players that I really wanted at #181 and #220. See below.

#181: Michigan TE AJ Barner
Barner was basically nothing at Indiana until transferring to Michigan in 2023...where he was great. His blocking was excellent and he was surprisingly athletic as a pass catcher. He's worth a swing here.

#190: Tennessee CB Kamal Hadden
I really wanted a developmental edge rusher here, but I didn't love the options and Hadden was a better fit anyway. He allowed a passer rating of 7 this year. He went the junior college route on his way to the NFL, so his pedigree is murky. But the production is there on a flyer.

#220: Iowa P Tory Taylor
If Taylor makes it to the 7th, he has to be the pick. He would be a significant instant upgrade over Trenton Gill.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following bevy of tasty picks:

1st (NYG)
1st (CHI)
2nd (CAR)
2nd (TEN)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (TEN)
3rd (CHI)
4th (NE)
4th (TEN)
4th (CHI)
5th (CHI)

Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, J.K. Dobbins, Khari Blasingame
TE (4): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Ben Sinnott, AJ Barner
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Brendan Rice, Malachi Corley, Tyler Scott, Velus Jones
OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Patrick Paul
OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ryan Bates (trade)
C    (2): Connor Williams, Beaux Limmer

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Za'Darius Smith, Chop Robinson, Dominique Robinson, FREE AGENT
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, DeMarcus Walker, FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Kamal Hadden
S (5): Jaquan Brisker, Geno Stone, Tyler Nubin, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones

ST (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, Patrick Scales

Taking Williams at #1 overall normally stunts my ability to accrue numerous picks to fill holes. That wasn't the case here. The trade with the Giants from #9 enabled the Bears to get Robinson and add gobs of depth, even before accounting for the 2025 1st coming back.

It's also worth noting that the final tally for the Fields trade would be Fields and #123 for #48, #74, and #96. That still feels like a solid haul for the Bears. Using the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart and assuming an exactly equal trade where both Chicago and Atlanta acquire and ship out 756 points, the trade values Fields as 707 points (Fields (707) + #123 (49) = #48 (420) + #74 (220) + #96 (116)), roughly akin to the #26 pick in the draft. That feels about right.

This roster would feature meaningful starters at every spot along with an incredible infusion of young talent on offense with which the new franchise QB could grow. I'd really enjoy this outcome and the path on which it would leave the Bears, particularly in light of the 2025 war chest they'd have as they continue to shape the roster around Williams.