Nevertheless, hope remains. So, without further adieu, here's a grade for the Colston Loveland pick followed by a look to tonight's picks, currently slated for #39, #41, and #72. Before turning to the grades, please recall that there's no grade inflation here: C is average, D is below-average, B is above-average, F is failing, and A is exceptional.
#10: Bears Draft Michigan TE Colston Loveland
Let's start with the good: Loveland is a great TE prospect! He has great height at 6'6" and adequate weight at 248 lbs. He's young, having just turned 21, his athleticism appears to be above-average despite a lack of athletic testing, and he played in a pro style offense that heavily featured his skills, leading to big production. There's a ton to like about his fit in Ben Johnson's offense, and if you've been underwhelmed by Cole Kmet's production for years (like me), a hot new TE prospect should be just what the doctor ordered.
Unfortunately, that's far from the end of the story here. Loveland has a few big things working against him -- some his fault, others not -- that will make it difficult for him to produce value as the #10 overall pick. To wit:
- Shoulder Injury. Loveland separated his shoulder last September and, to his immense credit, made it through late November before tapping out prior to Michigan's game at Ohio State. Unfortunately, for some inexplicable reason, he didn't undergo surgery to repair his AC joint until January 29th, 2025. As of February, his hope was to be cleared for contact within six months. Training camp starts in late July. It'll be dicey as to whether he's available to start camp with the team. That's a bad thing. Notably in his favor: the prognosis for a full recovery is strong.
- Positional Value. Tight ends are important, but they aren't paid accordingly. The top of the TE market is now a $19M average annual value (AAV) with just $32.5M guaranteed via Trey McBride's extension with the Cardinals. Conversely, the market for a slightly below-average DE like new Bear Dayo Odeyingbo is a $16M AAV with $29.5M guaranteed. TE simply isn't the most valuable spot on the roster, so it's going to be tough for Loveland to produce lots of surplus value on his rookie deal. This is highlighted by the constant comparisons to Lions TE Sam LaPorta. LaPorta is a really good TE who played in a system that highlighted his skills. He represented great value when Detroit drafted him...at #34. There's a chasm between their draft positions.
- Play Strength. This isn't my critique; I won't pretend to be an expert at evaluating TE blocking beyond to say that it's something at which Mike Gesicki never excelled. However, Loveland's NFL.com profile contains this chilling sentence: "Will get rag-dolled at the point of attack by NFL power." Yikes.
- The Bears Are a Dumb NFL Franchise. This isn't Loveland's fault. But the Bears have only one winning season in the last 12 years since Lovie Smith was fired. Bad teams often stay bad by being dumb. It's safe to assume that the Bears made a dumb choice until proven otherwise. GM Ryan Poles repeatedly mentioned falling in love with Loveland while watching former Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in advance of the 2024 NFL Draft. That's good -- he's done his homework -- and bad -- the 2024 season also happened and needs to be evaluated. And when I say that they made a "dumb choice," I'm of course referring to...
- The Tyler Warren Problem. Loveland's career will be inextricably linked to Tyler Warren's as they were the near-consensus top-two TEs in the Draft. Warren exploded in his final season at Penn State, running away with the Mackey Award after producing one of the most impressive seasons by a collegiate TE ever. His performance against USC is the stuff of legend. Warren is huge, he runs reasonably well -- though perhaps not quite as fluidly as Loveland -- and he has played everywhere in the Penn State offense, offering as much versatility as a TE can offer. And yet, presented with the choice, the Bears opted for Loveland. Here's hoping Poles got it right. Admittedly, Warren also would've had to overcome the positional value issue that Loveland faces, though Warren's versatility
- The Bears' Haunting Draft Comparables. There are two former Bears first-round picks that immediately came to mind, neither for the right reason. First, in 2012, the Bears found themselves in desperate need of an edge rusher to help the aging Israel Idonije opposite star DE Julius Peppers. With hulking, 11th-graded (per ESPN) Syracuse DE Chandler Jones on the board, the Bears opted for Boise State's Shea McClellin (ranked 19th). Choosing the Idaho-based, lower-ranked prospect didn't work in 2012 as McClellin washed out with the Bears while Jones spent the next decade at the Pro Bowl and playing in Super Bowls. Second, way back in 2001, the Bears drafted a big Michigan pass catcher to help their young QB from Los Angeles, Cade McNown. Despite a few memorable plays against the 49ers in his rookie season, Terrell was a bust, being cut before finishing his rookie deal. Ironically, the next Bears pick, RB Anthony Thomas, is the last Wolverine chosen by the Bears in any round prior to Loveland.
There's one more comment before we get to the grade. A lot has been made of this being a pick for new coach Ben Johnson. That's great. However, while it's good for Johnson and his staff to communicate with Poles about their desired fits, it's ultimately the GM's job to make the picks. Poles is the one who will be fired if the Bears don't improve on his 15-36 record in a hurry.
In the end, I think that Loveland stands a good chance to be a good contributor with the Bears. However, this is a surprisingly risky pick in that Loveland will have a hard time producing value given the cost that the Bears paid to obtain him. This isn't a terrible pick, but it is a below-average one.
Grade: D+
NFL Draft - Day Two
Thankfully for the Bears, the Draft isn't over! Arguably, today is even more important as the Bears seek to add three more starters to their roster. Here is a look at my Bears-specific big board in advance of tonight. But first, a note: you may have noticed that the order of some of these players has changed from earlier in the week. Why? It's simple: the Bears spent the #10 pick on a non-QB, non-WR offensive skill position player, so the relative value of linemen -- especially DLs -- on Day Two increased. So here goes:
- Marshall DE Mike Green
- Is Green even on the board? Surely his sexual assault accusations scared away a number of teams. Are the Bears one of those teams? He lacks the length that DC Dennis Allen wants, but the first step is explosive enough for him to land atop this list.
- Arkansas DE Landon Jackson
- Great athlete with the length that Dennis Allen wants. I love Jackson.
- Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery
- I've long wondered why he wasn't projected as a 1st rounder. Elite athlete with only 33 1/8" arms. But that's probably long enough to take the shot on his movement skills given his massive size.
- Ohio State DE J.T. Tuimoloau
- There's prospect fatigue at play here. JTT looks really good.
- Texas A&M DE Nic Scourton
- The Texas A&M year was weird; he looked even better coming out of Purdue.
- Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea
- Lots of talk about him moving to G: (i) that's fine, and (ii) he's got the arms (33.9"), speed (95th percentile), and weight (324) to offset his slightly shorter height. He'd be a great fit.
- Michigan CB Will Johnson
- Surely the injury history has raised red flags.
- South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori
- He needs to improve his play recognition, but the sky is the limit.
- Missouri WR Luther Burden
- Incredible value in the 2nd round.
- South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders
- Sanders is a true 3-technique. Very quick.
- Texas DT Alfred Collins
- Collins is a nose for the Bears. He's probably more of a target in the 3rd. I've liked him throughout this process.
- Toledo DT Darius Alexander
- Great athlete with good size, great speed, and a long frame. But he is old (24).
- East Carolina CB Shavon Revel
- Good prospect at a position that isn't a need.
- Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins
- Good looking prospect at a position that probably isn't a big need given how much time the Bears figure to spend in 12 personnel.
- Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
- I'd love to have KJ join the Bears. His ACL tear in September stole all of last season, but he was a 1st rounder after his sophomore year.
- Notre Dame S Xavier Watts
- Watts is a strong plug-and-play option. I just like Winston better.
- Tennessee DT Omarr Norman-Lott
- Not my favorite prospect, but he is at a key spot.
- Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
- Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins
- Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson
- UCLA LB Carson Schwesinger
- I like Schwesinger more than the RBs, but the value proposition is poor as he'd be drafted to start in 2026. LBs have largely become plug-and-play at this point.
- Utah State WR Jalen Royals
- I love Royals as a prospect, but I'm hoping he makes it to #72. The #40 neighborhood is too early for him.
- Washington State WR Kyle Williams
- Ditto Royals.
My preferred positions are really easy to figure out in light of Loveland going at #10:
- Defensive End
- Offensive Tackle
- Defensive Tackle
- Safety
Lots of fans want a RB early in the 2nd round tonight. I want the Bears to win. They have a desperate need at DE for a rookie to come play 500 snaps, and the Bears cannot continue to eschew linemen in the draft.
The best-case scenario probably looks something like this:
#39: Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery
#41: Arkansas DE Landon Jackson
#72: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
Why did I skip DT? If the Bears draft a DE expected to play big snaps, including on 3rd down, new DE Dayo Odeyingbo figures to get a handful of 3rd down snaps at DT, minimizing the need on the inside.
Go Bears!
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