Chicago Bears 2025 NFL Draft Scenarios

The first round of the NFL Draft kicks off in Green Bay in less than 10 days. I've run lots of mock offseasons in advance of free agency and the Draft. But now it's time for my annual look at possible scenarios with a heavy emphasis on the Bears' day one and day two picks. This year, that group includes #10, #39, #41, and #72.

Let's start at #10. We'll only consider scenarios within the realm of possibility. So, this won't include the possibility of the Bears trading #10 for #11 and three future 1sts then drafting Penn State DE Abdul Carter at #11. There's no world where that happens. Off we go!

1. A star prospect inexplicably slips to #10 and the Bears draft him without moving up in the top-10. I've had two prospects in this bucket for months now: Carter and Michigan DT Mason Graham. Carter has foot and shoulder injuries, and Graham has 32" arms...and I don't care. Those guys both look like cornerstone DLs to me. There are two other prospects that I've confidently elevated into this group: LSU OT Will Campbell and Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter, even if Campbell becomes an LG due to his shorter arms and despite Hunter's lack of specific value to a Bears roster loaded with talent and recent investments at CB and WR. A top prospect slips every year. But to #10? That seems unlikely. It sure would be great though!
2. A desirable QB is on the board at #10 and a desperate team makes a big move up the board to get him. It's pretty easy to envision what this looks like: in 2021, the Bears traded a future 1st, future 4th, and current 5th to move from #20 to #11 to select Ohio State QB Justin Fields. The top trade partners this year appear to be Pittsburgh (#21), Los Angeles Rams (#26), Cleveland (#33), New York Giants (#34), and Tennessee (#35). With some squinting, its possible to see Seattle (#18) getting involved if they're not certain about Sam Darnold (they can get out of his deal after 2025 if things go sideways) and even New Orleans (#40) or the New York Jets (#42) if they go another direction at #9 and #7 respectively. It's highly unlikely that Miami QB Cam Ward gets to #10, but Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders or Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart could be there. While Pittsburgh is a popular mock trade target, I don't see the Steelers as particularly likely. Instead, making a deal with a poorly-run franchise like Cleveland, the New York Giants, or Tennessee to accumulate additional current and/or future picks would be great. I'm partial to something like the following using the Jimmy Johnson trade chart if Cleveland opts for a non-QB at #2: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Cleveland for #33 (580), #67 (255), and a 2026 1st (580 - valued as top pick in 2nd round).
3. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty gets to #10. I really like Jeanty. He played great against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, fumbles notwithstanding. I liked watching his season before he played the Nittany Lions, and watching him generate average production despite his average depth of contact being 0.8 yards behind the line of scrimmage was wildly impressive. Jeanty is the focal point of whatever offense he joins and he'd surely take a ton of pressure off of QB Caleb Williams.
4. Penn State TE Tyler Warren gets to #10. Warren is so fun. He's a Swiss Army knife who is also a great in-line TE. Given the centrality of the TE to Ben Johnson's offense, Warren's physical profile, Warren's immense production in 2024, and my affection for the long-time Nittany Lion, I'd be very happy with this outcome.
5. Make a modest trade down to accumulate an additional mid-round pick or two, then nab a good player. There are a good number of options here. In order of preference, I'd like:
1. Marshall DE Mike Green. Green got to the Senior Bowl with something to prove. He left the Senior Bowl early after immediately proving it. His 17 sacks were no fluke. Although just 6'3", 250 lbs., he's explosive and agile. If he can get to 260 lbs., he should start after playing a situational role early in his career.
2. Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen. Nolen looks like the 3-technique DT that this defense needs...and might have in Grady Jarrett? Despite the financial investment in Jarrett, it still seems like the best path ahead involves a high-upside prospect in the 4th DT role behind Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, and Andrew Billings. Plus, drafting another DT enables the Bears to cut Chris Williams and recoup his cap hit. Nolen is plenty quick and extremely powerful, given him a chance to develop into an interior pass rushing menace.
3. Texas A&M DE Shemar Stewart. Stewart is the ultimate Draft Rorschach test. Is he the underwhelming Edge with only two sacks and mediocre grades in 2024? Or is he the 6'5", 285 lbs. (but 267 lbs. at the Combine) behemoth who posted a perfect 10.00 RAS fueled by a 40" vertical, 10'11" broad jump, and 4.59 40 with 34.13" arms, dripping with untapped potential? I don't know. I do know that I'll be excited if the Bears nab Stewart, in part because he can slide into a DE3 timeshare with 2024 draftee Austin Booker where Booker rushes the passer and Stewart plays the run while he develops. Stewart would be ideal in the 2nd.
4. Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan is the best prospect in this grouping. McMillan is huge (6'4", 220 lbs.), plenty fast, highly productive, and fluid. So why is he down here? The Bears already have big investments in D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze.
5. Mizzou WR Luther Burden. Burden has a different body than McMillan, but he's also extremely productive with even better athleticism. Burden looks like D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin. It's not hard to envision him being a star in the slot.
6. Georgia DE Mykel Williams. Williams has slipped a bit in recent weeks, but I don't get it, especially for the Bears. Williams has great size at 6'5", 260 lbs. and, importantly, 34.375" arms. Despite his hefty size, Williams ran his 40 in under 4.70 seconds. Williams is already a good run defender, but drafting him early is a bet on his characteristics and his potential future as a pass rusher.
7. Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell. Campbell doesn't present great value her as an off-ball LB, but he has all of the markings of a long-term MIKE LB fit, something that the Bears would do well to find this year in advance of a potential cut of current MIKE Tremaine Edmunds after the season.
8. Michigan DT Kenneth Grant. Grant moves unreasonably well for someone tipping the scales at 340 lbs. He's a true nose tackle, but he is quick enough to play the nose in a 4-3. He's probably a two-down player, but he's a guy with a chance to be a great two-down player.
9. Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. Banks is a good prospect in just about every respect, save for his less-than-ideal 33.5" arms. For reference, current RT Darnell Wright has 33.75" arms while 2024 draftee Kiran Amegadjie has 36.125" arms. Banks moves reasonably well, but doesn't appear to have any elite athletic trait. He also probably needs to sit for a year. I like plenty of the options in the 2nd or 3rd round just as much, so Banks would be a bit disappointing.
10. Ohio State LT Josh Simmons. Simmons is a great athlete with two big knocks against him: 33" arms and a torn patellar in October 2024. He probably needs a redshirt year, something that the Bears probably cannot afford when trying to win in 2025.
11. Georgia S Malaki Starks. Starks had really poor athletic testing at the Combine for an elite prospect (5.29 RAS). So did some other really productive safeties like Brian Branch, Xavier McKinney, and Earl Thomas. However, those poor performances caused those players to drop, so the early teens feel early for Starks, even though he possesses a lot of the same leadership traits as current S Jaquan Brisker.
12. Mizzou RT Armand Membou. Membou is tricky. He earned his spot in this section by virtue of his outrageous explosion and speed at 332 lbs.! However, his 33.5" arms and experience playing exclusively RT in college give me pause. Could he be a franchise LT or an elite RG? Maybe! But if he's truly best cast as a RT, he doesn't fit the Bears.
6. Make a modest trade up for a star. If the Bears are able to make a modest deal to move up for one of Carter, Graham, Hunter, or Campbell -- likely dealing a 3rd or later to move up to something in the 5th-8th range -- I'll take it. This is especially true if the deal is for Carter or Graham.
7. Stay at 10 and draft a solid fit. Drafting someone in the group at #5 above, but without accumulating an extra pick or two in the process. A fine result. Arguably the most likely outcome.
8. Make a modest trade down for a guy who isn't a good fit or is overdrafted. There are five main guys that stand out here: Michigan TE Colston Loveland, Tennessee DE James Pearce Jr., Michigan CB Will Johnson, Texas CB Jahdae Barron, and Texas WR Matthew Golden. Loveland is an excellent TE prospect, but he's more of a slot TE at this point, not the complete TE/offensive weapon that Warren is. Pearce looks alarmingly like Leonard Floyd, measuring at 6'5", 243 lbs.: long, rangy, and ill-suited to play DE in a 4-3. Johnson is a pure cover corner with injury concerns, but the bigger issue for him is the presence of Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, and Terell Smith; the Bears have already made huge investments at CB. Same issue for Barron, who I like a bit more than Johnson and who I loved when he was pegged as a 2nd rounder a few months ago. Finally, Golden is insanely fast (4.29 40), but he's undersized and feels like a late 1st. However, trading down first to accumulate additional draft capital softens the blow with any of these guys.
1. If the Bears decide that Tyrique Stevenson can't stick around and they're able to get back a good pick for Stevenson (3rd or higher), drafting a CB here makes more sense, even if I'd much prefer a fat guy.
9. Omarion Hampton. Hampton deserves his own category. Hampton is a great RB prospect: his athletic testing was elite (9.70 RAS), save for a mediocre shuttle score. He's incredibly explosive and fast. But he's a running back who isn't Jeanty. Drafting Hampton -- or any of the other non-Jeanty RBs like Ohio State's Treveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, Tennessee's Dylan Sampson, or Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, all of whom tested well or exceptionally well -- at #10 would be a terrible allocation of resources. If Hampton is the guy, the Bears need to trade down at least eight spots first.
10. Make a big move for a star. Coming away with one of Carter, Graham, Hunter, or Campbell would be great...but not at an astronomical cost. Some might look at the Bears' pair of 2nd round picks and think that one should be utilized to move from #10 into the top five to find a difference maker. That misses the mark. Ryan Poles has made a bevy of pick-for-player trades that largely flopped but that undeniably cost the team a chunk of its depth. The Bears need picks. Speaking of those pick-for-player deals, consider that even those some a reasonable in a vacuum, the shear volume necessitates hoarding picks for a while:
1. #32 overall to Pittsburgh for WR Chase Claypool in 2022 (yikes!)
2. #184 in 2024 to Miami for G Dan Fenney (meh)
3. #40 in 2024 to Washington for DE Montez Sweat (OK)
4. #144 in 2024 to Buffalo for C Ryan Bates (yikes)
5. #110 in 2024 to Los Angeles Chargers for WR Keenan Allen (OK)
6. 2025 6th to Seattle for DE Darrell Taylor
7. 2025 6th to Cleveland for DT Chris Williams
8. 2025 6th to Los Angeles Rams for G Jonah Jackson (yuck!)
9. 2026 4th to Kansas City for G Joe Thuney (good)
11. Move up for Jeanty or Warren. This is the kind of move that Ryan Pace loved to make, acting with "conviction." Conviction resulted in Pace emptying the cupboard to get his guys without much payoff.
12. Stay at 10 and wildly overdraft someone who isn't a fit or isn't good enough to go #10. This includes the guys in scenario #8 above, all of the non-Jeanty RBs, and anyone else not mentioned yet.
13. Move up for the wrong guy. Paying a premium to move up has devastating consequences. Just ask anyone who wears a Mitchell Trubisky jersey to Soldier Field.

The scenarios for the 2nd rounders at #39 and #41, as well as the 3rd rounder at #72, are too numerous to address in full. So, instead, I'll address the players I like and don't like at those spots, recognizing that I've likely mentioned players above that make it to #39 and I'll address players at #39 and #41 that make it to #72. The Draft is unpredictable!

1. Guys I like at #39 and #41.
1. Arkansas DE Landon Jackson. If Jackson was a bit more productive, he'd be a top-20 pick. His athleticism is elite (9.78 RAS) driven by explosion and speed, and his 6'6", 264 lbs. frame is NFL-ready at DE with 33.25" arms. Jackson can defend the run now while developing his pass rushing arsenal.
2. North Dakota State OL Grey Zabel. Zabel is a DAWG. His arms are 32". If they were 33.5", he'd be the second-best OL in this class. If he's here, drafting him is the right choice. He's the top interior OL reserve in 2025 and steps into Thuney's job in 2026, becoming the leader of the OL for a decade.
3. Oregon DT Derrick Harmon. Harmon is a great 3-tech prospect with great size, great speed, long arms (34.38"), and strong production at Oregon.
4. Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins. He should be a 1st. Higgins is good at football, then blew the doors off of the Combine with a 9.63 RAS fueled by elite explosion scores with his beefy 6'4", 214 lbs. frame.
5. Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka. After completing a 14-year career at Ohio State, Egbuka finally makes his way to the NFL. He's a great prospect. He has average NFL WR size and fantastic athletic traits complemented by great production for years. He's like a 1st rounder.
6. Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery. I don't understand why Ersery isn't a 1st rounder. He's gigantic at 6'6", 331 lbs., he's strong, he's fast, and he's explosive. His 33.13" arms are a tick short, but I watched him given Penn State's DEs the business in November; nobody else did that in 2024.
7. Ohio State DE JT Tuimoloau. JTT is suffering from serious prospect fatigue. He wasn't as productive rushing the passer as many expected, but his athletic profile screams day one starter in the NFL and his flashes have been incredibly impressive. He's still just 22, so there's a lot to like here. His 34.875" arms are intriguing.
8. Toledo DT Darius Alexander. Alexander has the idyllic 3-technique package at 6'3", 305 lbs. with great speed and explosion. His 9.16 RAS with 34" arms portends a disruptive interior force if he can make the jump from the MAC to the NFL.
9. Texas A&M DE Nic Scourton. The Combine hurt Scourton. He ran well (4.70 40), but his height and weight knocked him down Draft boards, especially his 257 lbs. weigh-in in light of a 285 lbs. listed weight. His 33" arms are solid. He's a plug-and-play three-down DE after a highly productive career at Purdue and A&M. He's probably never a star, but at just 20, he has a long runway.
10. Oregon LT Josh Conerly Jr. Conerly probably isn't ready to anchor against NFL pass rushers yet, but he moves really well in the run game and held up surprisingly well against Carter. His 33.5" arms are adequate. He'd be good value here.
11. Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr. Winston would've been a reasonably high 1st rounder in 2024. But because he was a sophomore, he returned to Penn State for his junior season and tore his ACL five quarters into the year. I could see him going anywhere from 25th to 85th as a result. He's a centerpiece player if the knee is healthy and a 4.50 40 at his Pro Day suggests that it is.
12. East Carolina CB Shavon Revel. Revel is tall, long, and fast. A September ACL tear pushes him into this zone, but he'd be great value here. Stevenson would be on the way out if Revel came in.
13. South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori. Emmanwori is probably going in the second half of the 1st round after an outrageous Combine saw him post a 10.00 RAS, too. Everything is elite. However, Emmanwori looks like he's watching, then reacting, far too often. He has the athleticism to make a bunch of plays in spite of this. He'd be fine here.
14. South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders. I like Sanders. I used to love him. But the more I watched him, the less explosion I saw. It's there. It's good. But it's not elite despite him only weighing 290 lbs.
15. Ohio State LG Donovan Jackson. Jackson isn't an LT, but he's a darn good LG prospect.
16. Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen. I really like Umanmielen's film. I think he's a great football player. I think there's an argument for him in the 1st. But at 6'4", 244 lbs., he's probably too small to play 4-3 DE. If the Bears are convinced that he can pack on 15 lbs., he'd jump up in the Zabel-Harmon tier. I think he's still worth it here as a situational pass rusher; he's that good.
17. Notre Dame S Xavier Watts. Watts is good at everything. He'd be a solid citizen in the back of the secondary. He's not the most exciting prospect to me, though.
18. All of the guys I mentioned liking above. Overdrafted in the 1st doesn't apply to the 2nd. For clarity, I like the RBs in the following order: Hampton (elite athlete and explosive), Sampson (undersized but explosive), Judkins (great), Henderson (great), Arizona State's Cam Skattebo (dawg), and Johnson (huge but less explosive).
2. Guys I don't like at #39 and #41 (ranging from OK to BARF)
1. Ohio State DT Tyleik Williams. What if Kenneth Grant couldn't get upfield? He'd be fine, I guess, but he doesn't move the needle much.
2. Ohio State DE Jack Sawyer. Sawyer has been good for a long time. He's fast, his size checks out, and he was productive against a tough schedule. So why is he here? 31.75" arms. That's incredibly short for an NFL DE. For reference, current DEs Montez Sweat (35.75"), Dayo Odeyingbo (35.25"), and Austin Booker (33.875") show what the Bears want. 
3. Tennessee DT Omar Norman-Lott. Norman-Lott looks fine, but he doesn't look particularly twitchy to my eyes.
4. Georgia LB Jalon Walker. Walker is an LB for the Bears. He's going to end up as a 3-4 OLB for someone else.
5. Alabama G Tyler Booker. A terrible fit for the Bears' zone rushing attack. Booker is a mauler. I'm not sure I'd even want him at #148.
6. Boston College DE Donovan Ezeiruaku. Also a 3-4 OLB.

1. Guys I like at #72.
1. West Virginia LT Wyatt Milum. Milum is a G in the NFL with his 32.13" arms. But he's awesome. A cornerstone piece in the interior.
2. Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea. Savaiinaea is faster than Milum with 33.88" arms. He's a real LT prospect who would also look great at G.
3. Utah State WR Jalen Royals. One of my favorite prospects, Royals has a superb first step and 4.42 speed.
4. Washington State WR Kyle Williams. Another one of my favorite prospects, Williams has a superb first step and 4.40 speed.
5. Georgia G Tate Ratledge. The story on Ratledge was great player, OK athleticism. Then he posted a 9.96 RAS with elite speed, explosion, and agility. I don't understand why he is ranked this low.
6. Miami TE Elijah Arroyo. Arroyo can fly. He doesn't look like a real blocker yet, but for now, the Bears could settle for him embarrassing NFL safeties with his speed.
7. South Carolina LB Demetrius Knight Jr. Knight is old (24). Otherwise, he'd be a much better prospect. He'd be a good SAM as a rookie before sliding inside.
8. Texas DT Alfred Collins. I was sky-high on Collins earlier. But now, this is the right spot for him. He's massive but truly a nose with limited explosion and speed who is already 24. Thankfully the Draft wasn't in February.
9. Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr. Fannin tormented Tom Allen's defense in State College last year, but then he kept doing it all year to every other opponent, too. He's a very good athlete, but Fannin weighed in at just 6'3", 241 lbs. at the Combine. That doesn't work. The hope here is that a redshirt year can help him fill out his frame for the NFL.
10. LSU TE Mason Taylor. Similar to Arroyo but a bit worse across the board.
11. UCLA LB Carson Schwesinger. Schwesinger came out of nowhere in 2024. If he can get big enough to be a MIKE, he could be a 2nd. As WILL only, I don't want the Bears to draft him here.
12. LSU DE Bradyn Swinson. Swinson is a decent prospect with a great first step. He does look like a better 3-4 fit.

There are waaaaaaaay too many guys to address options at #148, so I'll just say that I really like the following: Penn State S Jaylen Reed, Arkansas WR Isaac TeSlaa, Georgia RB Trevor Etienne, Kansas State CB Jacob Parrish (despite his 5'9" frame), Notre Dame TE Mitchell Evans, Kentucky DT Deone Walker, and especially Illinois WR Pat Bryant.

Before getting to two mock drafts, a final comment: if the Bears do draft a new RB, it'd be great to unload D'Andre Swift via trade. I suspect that his value is minimal -- maybe a 5th or even a late pick swap -- but clearing out the cap space would be quite helpful.

Mock Draft - No Trades

Using the PFF mock draft tool, here goes!

• #10: Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen
• #39: North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton
• #41: North Dakota State G Grey Zabel
• #72: Utah State WR Jalen Royals
• #148: Ohio State S Jordan Hancock
• #233: Syracuse DE Fadil Diggs
• #240: Georgia LB Smael Mondon Jr.

All of the useful DEs got drafted earlier than expected. I should've gone with Green in the first.

Mock Draft - Trade Away!

My preferred method, obviously. Let's do it!

• #10: TRADED to Houston along with a 2026 6th for #25, #58, #79, and a 2026 2nd
• #25: Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen (yes, he got to #25)
• #39: Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka
• #41: Arkansas DE Landon Jackson
• #58: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
• #72: Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson
• #79: Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea
• #148: Illinois WR Pat Bryant
• #233: UTSA CB Zah Frazier
• #240: Wisconsin S Hunter Wohler

That one trade really couldn't have worked out better. The odds of Nolen getting to #25 seem awfully low, but even if he didn't get there, the next three picks are great options at #25: Loveland, Emmanwori, and Stewart. And Darius Alexander made it to #43, so the DT room still would've found a nice prospect.