Evaluating Chicago Bears NFL Draft Trade Proposals

In my last post, I looked at a wide range of possible NFL Draft scenarios for the Bears, focusing heavily on their options at #10 before addressing preferred targets in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Today, we're going to look at something different: trade scenarios from #10. It's conceivable that the Bears could trade up to nab an elite player. In my eyes, that means Abdul Carter, Mason Graham, Will Campbell, or Travis Hunter. Even a modest move -- say, from #10 to #7 by attaching a 3rd rounder -- would be tough to stomach in light of all of the depth picks GM Ryan Poles has shipped out over the years, but it would be the right move for a sliding elite talent.

Short of one of those guys falling, however, we're only looking at trades down the Draft. For each proposal, we'll utilize the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, valuing a 2026 pick as the first pick in the following round to account for how front offices consider future assets.

Here are the deals I could see the Bears considering and my thoughts on them.

1. Dallas comes up for a WR or RB.
1. Proposed Trade: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Dallas for #12 (1,200), #149 (31.8), and a 2026 4th (36.5)
2. Rationale: Dallas has a big need at WR2 and many mock drafts feature Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan getting to #10. If San Francisco is licking its chops at #11, Dallas would want to jump San Francisco.
3. Grade: A-. It's a "loss" on the Jimmy Johnson chart, but more importantly, it's an opportunity for the Bears to recoup the 2026 4th traded for G Joe Thuney while ensuring that only San Francisco jumps in front of the Bears.
2. Indianapolis needs Tyler Warren.
1. Proposed Trade: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Indianapolis for #14 (1,100), #80 (190), and a 2026 4th (36.5)
2. Rationale: Indianapolis has eschewed their TE spot for a while. Warren is a star. I don't think he makes it to #10, but if he does, the Bears should take him...unless they don't want to, in which case they should capitalize on his market. Indy likely needs to jump San Francisco for Warren as George Kittle nears retirement.
3. Grade: B+. The Bears "win" this trade, but there's more risk involved. Still, if all of Hunter, Carter, Graham, Campbell, Jeanty, and Warren are gone by #10, the Bears should make the deal. This is an evergreen sentence.
3. Pittsburgh decides to reset at QB.
1. Proposed Trade: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Pittsburgh for #21 (800), #83 (175), and a 2026 2nd (265)
2. Rationale: Pittsburgh whiffed on Kenny Pickett. After one-year fliers on Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, it's time for a reset. This probably only comes into play in a more convoluted scenario. For example, if the 49ers flip with the Saints, climbing from #11 to #9, to get Warren, Pittsburgh could decide that they need to jump New Orleans in order to ensure grabbing their choice of QB. This likely requires a Shedeur Sanders slide or a massive Jaxson Dart climb.
3. Grade: D-. I do not like this kind of move unless there's a hefty premium for the drop. In this case, the Steelers aren't sufficiently desperate to pay a premium. For reference, when the Bears dealt with the Giants to move from #20 to #11 in 2021, the price was a 5th, a 2022 1st, and a 2022 4th. That's a premium.
4. Houston makes their Super Bowl push.
1. Proposed Trade: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Houston for #25 (720), #58 (320), #79 (195), and a 2026 3rd (88)
2. Rationale: Houston's Super Bowl window is open...I think. They just traded Laremy Tunsil to Washington, creating a hole at LT -- filled with Cam Robinson, for now -- but giving the Texans additional draft capital. They cash some of that in to come up for McMillan or perhaps Mizzou's Luther Burden. Unfortunately for the Texans, Tank Dell's catastrophic knee injury forces their hand.
3. Grade: C+. The premium here is relatively modest, but turning a 1st into a 1st, 2nd, and two 3rds is the kind of move that justifies the drop. I would feel a lot better if Poles could get a 2026 4th back, too, and Houston has a pair...but I'm not sure Poles can extract that fifth pick. In any event, this works well enough.
5. The Giants double down on top-10 picks to get their QB.
1. Proposed Trades: 
1. Bears trade #10 (1,300) to New York Giants for #34 (560), a 2026 1st (580), and a 2026 2nd (265)
2. Bears trade #10 (1,300) to New York Giants for #34 (560), #99 (104), a 2026 1st (580), a 2026 3rd (88), and a 2026 4th (36.5)
2. Rationale: Assuming Miami QB Cam Ward goes #1 overall to Tennessee, the Giants will end up with Hunter or Carter. If they do that, they'll need to find a way to get their QB. They could wait, or they could act with Ryan Pace-style "conviction" to come up for Sanders or Dart. The 49ers-Saints trade referenced above probably has to happen here given the need that New Orleans has in light of Derek Carr's injury. Also, given that the Giants will either be starting Russell Wilson or a rookie, their 2026 1st figures to be much more valuable than indicated above.
3. Grade: A-. The value here is too good to pass up. It's painful for the 2025 Bears to turn #10 into only #34, but if the Giants end up with the 10th pick in 2026, the aggregate value becomes a blowout for the franchise if we set aside the time value proposition (1,300 for 2,340 (560 + 1,300 + 480) or 2,254 (560 + 1,300 + 104 + 220 + 70)). That 1,000-point win is equivalent to getting #15 overall for free.

Cleveland, much like the Giants, seems unlikely to get their QB in the top-3. However, it's tough for them to justify moving up for a QB right now given Deshaun Watson's crippling contract.

In evaluating these deals, I'd do the Dallas and Indianapolis deals in a heartbeat -- assuming, again, for some reason that the Bears don't love Warren. I'd go for the Giants deal immediately, too. It's a massive deal but the Giants are a bad team in a loaded division; those 2026 picks are just too juicy. I'd be hard-pressed to make the Houston trade; it's a huge deal without ultra-juicy picks coming back. And I wouldn't touch that Pittsburgh deal with a 10-foot pole.