Bears-Texans Thoughts

That was a brutal game. It was a really difficult game to watch as a Bears fan. Jay Cutler's injury was certainly the worst individual moment of the game. But the overall feeling of the game made it so much worse than just a big injury to the team's most important player.

The Texans realized Cutler wasn't going to play in the second half and punted their offense. They didn't even try. That's the worst part.

On to the thoughts:

1. Houston's second half drives were pathetic.... Here are the possessions:

#1: Starting at HOU 3. Incomplete pass, -1 yd run, 4 yd run, punt
#2: Starting at HOU 16. 1 yd run, incomplete pass, 7 yd pass, punt
#3: Starting at HOU 11. -2 yd run, 23 yd pass, 7 yd run, -1 yd run, -7 sack, punt
#4: Starting at HOU 38. 3 yd pass, incomplete pass, incomplete pass, punt
#5: Starting at HOU 47. 5 yd run, 7 yd run (plus a 15 yd facemask penalty), -1 yd run, (10 yd holding penalty), 2 yd pass, 11 yd pass, FG
#6: -3 yd run, 0 yd run, 1 yd run, punt
#7: Kneel downs

I won't include the seventh drive for obvious reasons. Not including the five punts and the field goal, Houston amassed the following totals among their drives: 12 running play calls, 10 passing play calls, 17 rushing yards, 39 passing yards. They just couldn't do anything against the Bears defense. If I was a Texans fan, I would be happy with a victory in a tough environment, but I wouldn't feel great about my team's performance. Except for Danieal Manning. He had put things together by his last year in Chicago, and by all accounts he has continued to thrive for Wade Phillips.

2. ...But the Chicago offense has no chance of thriving without Jay Cutler. A look at every Bears possession, with Cutler at the helm for every first half possession and Jason Campbell leading the way for the second half:

#1: Starting at CHI 45. 6 yd pass (fumbled)
#2: Starting at CHI 37. 2 yd run, 9 yd pass, 2 yd run, 7 yd scramble, 0 yd pass, 11 yd run (fumbled)
#3: Starting at HOU 45. 14 yd pass, 1 yd run, interception
#4: Starting at HOU 33. 4 yd run, 1 yd run, incomplete pass, FG
#5: Starting at CHI 20. Incomplete pass, 7 yd pass, incomplete pass, punt
#6: Starting at CHI 49. 2 yd run, -1 yd run, 11 yd scramble, 0 yd pass, interception
#7: Starting at CHI 21. 19 yd scramble, incomplete pass, incomplete pass, 4 yd pass

The first half totals are ugly: 8 running play calls, 17 passing play calls, 59 rushing yards, 34 passing yards, four turnovers.

The most painful plays are littered throughout the first half. Kellen Davis's fumble on the first Bears play showed a tremendous lack of awareness by Davis. Michael Bush's fumble on a big fourth-and-one conversion was especially saddening. And Brandon Marshall's inability to hold on to Cutler's beautiful pass on the fourth drive was frustrating.

The second half was much more frustrating largely because the score remained so tight but the offense couldn't muster scoring drives. The possessions:

#1: Starting at CHI 23. 7 yd run, 8 yd run, 1 yd run, 2 yd pass, 18 yd pass, 0 yd run, 0 yd pass, 4 yd pass, punt
#2: Starting at CHI 38. 1 yd run, incomplete pass, 5 yd scramble, punt
#3: Starting at CHI 48. 2 yd run, (false start), 45 yd pass, 5 yd run, -1 yd run, incomplete pass, FG
#4: Starting at CHI 38. 9 yd pass, 20 yd run, 3 yd run, incomplete pass, incomplete pass, missed FG
#5: Starting at CHI 14. 5 yd run, (holding penalty), 5 yd pass, incomplete pass, punt
#6: Starting at CHI 25. Incomplete pass, -1 yd pass, incomplete pass, punt
#7: Starting at CHI 38. -3 yd pass, (holding penalty), 7 yd pass, 8 yd pass, incomplete pass

Obviously it wasn't pretty. That's 11 running plays, 20 passing plays, 56 rushing yards, and 94 passing yards.  For the game, the Bears totaled 19 running play calls, 37 passing play calls, 115 rushing yards, and 128 passing yards.

I think it's unfair to say that Matt Forte didn't get into a groove. Similarly, I think it would be wrong to say that either quarterback failed to establish a rhythm. No offensive player really had the opportunity to do so.

What's most alarming to me is that of their 14 possessions, the Bears offense started beyond their own 35 nine times. Nine. Five of those drives began within 55 yards of the Houston endzone. Yet they only managed three field goal attempts. Given that level of ineptitude, there's plenty of blame to go around. It was a really poor effort by the offense.

3. Kellen Davis will be looking for a new uniform this spring. I often think about what the team needs to do going forward, looking to the upcoming draft to determine what needs are most pressing. This year, I have largely settled on my views. A defensive tackle needs to be added if Henry Melton leaves in free agency. A middle linebacker needs to be brought in (see more on that below). Offensive line help is an obvious need. But tight end tops the list. That's not to say bringing in an elite talent at the position should trump other needs; it is to say that bringing in new talent at the position to complement Evan Rodriguez and Matt Spaeth is of the utmost importance.

Davis has been maddeningly inconsistent as a Bear. He has made some excellent catches, using his athleticism to block out defenders. He has countered those contributions by occassionally missing key blocks and regularly dropping catchable passes, frequently as the check down option on third down, a complication that makes the drops particularly devastating.

Against the Texans, Davis had three costly errors. First, the aforementioned fumble on the game's opening play. Additionally, he dropped a roughly 10 yard pass from Cutler on Chicago's final drive of the first half that would have given the offense the ball at midfield with approximately 20 seconds. Finally, on the Bears' penultimate drive of the game, Campbell threw his second best pass of the night (the best being his beautiful heave down the left sideline to Marshall) putting a skinny post right on Kellen's hands. Because of the drop, the Bears punted instead of continuing the drive near the 50. While it would have been a nice catch, it's the kind of play that Davis needs to make in order to keep his job in the NFL.

The guess here is that the Bears front office has seen enough of Davis to let him walk as a free agent. I imagine a middle round draft choice will be used on his replacement.

4. The officials, man, the officials. In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Penn State fan. That means that I entered Sunday with a poor taste in my mouth when it comes to video reviews thanks to this being ruled a fumble. Even though I was predisposed to be frustrated by the video reviews in tonight's game, I think I'm justified in being unhappy. As I recall, there were four reviews:

#1: The opening kickoff. On the field, Keshawn Martin was deemed to have fumbled. He clearly didn't and a quick review corrected the error. One for one.
#2: Tim Jennings' interception return. It's not terribly clear what was called on the field. Gene Steratore stated that the play was blown dead by a whistle when Jennings was at the 30. After review, he said that the video clearly showed that Jennings was touched down at the 38. To me, it looked like Jennings probably made contact with a Texan, but I don't think any video showed that incontrovertibly. There was much clearer evidence that Matt Lehman crossed the goal line in possession of the football in the above clip. More importantly here, had Jennings not been ruled down, I believe that the video would have showed Jennings reaching the 10 or even possibly the endzone prior to a whistle being blown. I think the refs missed this one.
#3: Arian Foster's touchdown catch. They wisely called it a catch on the field and this was upheld after a quick review. It was a fantastic grab by Foster on a tough play.
#4: Jay Cutler being over the line on a 45 yard pass to Devin Hester. The officials said that Cutler was over the line on the field and after review Steratore said that video confirmed the call. I'm hoping he meant to say that the ruling on the field stands, not that it was confirmed. With the benefit of a nifty red line, NBC showed that Cutler's back foot was behind the line when he threw the pass. So instead of the referee overturning the call on the field as the video showed - resulting in a first and goal at the Houston 3 - the call on the field stood, resulting in a replayed third-and-11 at midfield.

Had either video review gone in the Bears' favor, they stood an excellent chance at scoring an elusive touchdown.

Beyond the video reviews, I don't have much beyond the generic fan complaint about the officiating. I thought that there was an absurd amount of contact with Matt Forte on the last Bears play, but the nature of fourth down in the fourth quarter is that pass interference will be especially hard to come by.

5. Brian Urlacher makes me happy and sad. Urlacher makes me happy for the obvious reason that he's still miraculously playing professional football at 34 and coming off a knee sprain. He makes me happy because he still leads the defense in many respects. He makes me happy because he has been the face of Bears football for a decade and done the team proud.

But he makes me sad too for one terrible reason: he's rapidly approaching the end of the line. Urlacher is smart enough that he can continue to play at a reasonable level even as his body fades. There have already been an uncharacteristic number of plays this season where Urlacher read the play correctly but simply wasn't fast or quick enough to make the stop. Tonight, a different problem emerged. On a third-and-19 from the Chicago 35, Matt Schaub dropped off a pass to reserve tight end Garrett Graham. Urlacher had Graham sized up, hit him and had his arms wrapped around the receiver; Urlacher couldn't bring him down. Graham squirted away for about five extra yards, turning a 47 yard field goal attempt into a stiff wind into a 42 yard try that ultimately cleared the crossbar by only a few yards.

Urlacher can survive in the NFL for a few more years given his pedigree and knowledge. But if he only wants to stay in the league as the Chicago Bears starting middle linebacker, the team and its signature player could very well be headed for an ugly off-season.

6. The Bears are still fine. Before the season, I picked the Bears for the first NFC wild card spot with an 11-5 record. Admittedly I thought they would lose in Dallas but squeak past Houston at home. Nonetheless, I had them at 7-2 heading into their Monday Night Football clash in San Francisco. I have no idea what to expect from a Colin Kaepernick-Jason Campbell matchup next week. But I still feel confident that the Bears can find four - and certainly three - more wins the rest of the way. Trips to San Francisco, Minnesota, Arizona, and Detroit should net between one and two wins while home dates versus Minnesota, Seattle, and Green Bay should result in two wins.

Obviously an extended absence for Jay Cutler could change my thoughts here. However, even with Campbell at the helm, the Bears boast a strong run blocking offensive line, a pair of good backs, a great defense, and generally strong special teams. I would be absolutely stunned if those features cannot combine for at least a 3-4 record the rest of the way, even with the ramped up schedule. My main concern is that an extra loss the rest of the way could mean the difference between a first round bye and a wild card weekend trip to New Jersey, San Francisco, or even, gulp, Green Bay. Let's just run the table and avoid that.