Are You Sure You Want a Playoff?

It’s that wonderful time. The time when, as college football fans, we pine for a different manner of resolving the debate of who is the nation’s best team. Arguments continue to abound on both sides, for a playoff (“Let the teams decide it on the field!”) and for the status quo or something like it (“College football has the most important regular season in all of sports!”). Let’s see what happens given our various systems.

First and foremost, because it is only mid-November, we have to make a lot of assumptions. For the purposes of this post, here it is in one sentence: every current conference leader wins out (including Notre Dame). Given that foundation, off we go!

Current System

The BCS is going to take a ton of heat if every team wins out. Oregon, the current BCS #2, is a lock for the championship game if they win out as their remaining games are v. #13 Stanford, at #16 Oregon State, and the Pac-12 Championship Game versus the winner of this Saturday’s tilt between USC and UCLA. But their opponent? Kansas State currently has a decent-sized lead over Notre Dame in the BCS standings – the Wildcats also lead Oregon for the time being – and have reasonably strong opponents Baylor and #15 Texas remaining. Blowout wins over West Virginia and Miami look much less impressive in light of their combined 10-9 record as well as the fact that Notre Dame also destroyed the Hurricanes. Still, Kansas State’s lead is solid enough that Notre Dame cannot expect to jump over either opponent unless one of them loses.

Result: The #1 v. #2 format yields a championship game of #1 Oregon v. #2 Kansas State. Somewhat paradoxically, the new Pac-12 Championship Game – added to provide the Pac-12 champion with an end-of-season boost in the rankings – makes Oregon’s trip to the National Championship Game that much tougher. Oregon allowed 34 points to Arkansas State…but only after racing out to a 50-3 lead with 7 minutes remaining in the second quarter. Outside of the Red Wolves, USC scored twice as many points as any Oregon opponent (51). The clash in Los Angeles was also the only Ducks game decided by fewer than three scores. I’m certain that Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott will still receive accolades for generating additional revenue for his member schools. But if the additional game is the difference between a National Championship for the Ducks and a Rose Bowl blowout of Nebraska, Scott will have some critics.

2014 System

Beginning in 2014, four teams will be selected by a committee to participate in a playoff. The teams will meet in two of six current bowl games (Rose, Fiesta, Cotton, Sugar, Chick-fil-A, Orange), then the winners of the two semifinals will meet to decide the champion.

Result: Undefeated Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame are locks. If all of the leaders win out as assumed, Alabama is a lock for the fourth spot. Thus, we have #1 Oregon v. #4 Alabama and #2 Kansas State v. #3 Notre Dame followed by the winners squaring off in the championship game. This system looks fine and dandy for the time being. But if our assumption doesn’t hold – namely, one of the three undefeated teams loses a game – chaos ensues. Alabama has a strong case to be the cream of the one-loss crop. But if any of the other teams lose, does their spot go to Georgia or Florida? Possibly. Yet again, the conference championship game could prove detrimental for the qualifying team. It’s not too hard to imagine a scenario where Georgia wins the SEC East at 11-1, then falls to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, paving the way for 11-1 Florida to reach the National Semifinals. In some regard, that was decided on the field: Georgia had a chance to play their way into the semifinals but lost to Alabama. On the other hand, Florida gets the conference championship game loser’s spot by staying at home, having failed to qualify for the game by virtue of an earlier loss.

This system is much more forgiving to Oregon (and Larry Scott). Should the Ducks fall to the USC-UCLA winner in the Pac-12 Championship Game, they would still have a chance to qualify for one of the four semifinal spots as opposed to being locked out under the current format.

16-Team Playoff (Option 1)

There are a number of proposals for intermediate-sized playoffs, normally eight and 12 team formats. But the one currently making the rounds in my circles is a 16-team format that awards a playoff spot to the champions of all 11 FBS conferences and to five at-large teams. Let’s take a look at what that would mean this year if all of the conference leaders held serve the rest of the way.

Conference Champions: Florida State (ACC), Kansas State (Big 12), Rutgers (Big East), Nebraska (Big Ten), Central Florida (C-USA), Northern Illinois (MAC), San Diego State (Mountain West), Oregon (Pac-12), Alabama (SEC), Arkansas State (Sun Belt), and Louisiana Tech (WAC).

At-Large Qualifiers: Notre Dame (Ind.), Florida (SEC), Clemson (ACC), LSU (SEC), Texas A&M (SEC)

*Note that by assuming wins for current leaders, Georgia will be 11-2 with a loss to Alabama. Similarly, Stanford will record their third loss versus Oregon.

There would be plenty of issues to work through given this format. Are games played at home or at neutral sites? Are conference winners given priority in seeding or are the teams seeded exclusively by a selection committee? And will teams knocked out early in the playoff still have the opportunity to participate in bowl games? I assume that the first (and probably second) rounds would occur as home-road games, yielding something like this:

(1) Oregon v. (16) Arkansas State

(2) Kansas State v. (15) Northern Illinois

(3) Notre Dame v. (14) Central Florida

(4) Alabama v. (13) San Diego State

(5) Florida v. (12) Rutgers

(6) Texas A&M v. (11) Louisiana Tech

(7) Florida State v. (10) Nebraska

(8) LSU v. (9) Clemson

Result: I’m sure Oregon fans are dying for the Ducks-Red Wolves rematch. In all seriousness, there appear to be three really interesting contests, two likely horrendous ones, and a trio that aren't all that interesting in the middle. Obviously this regime gets a whole lot more interesting in round two and earns some fairness points for giving every conference a seat at the table. But really, Oregon v. Arkansas State?

16-Team Playoff (Option 2)

The amended regime is much more appealing in my view. The five power conferences get a guaranteed berth (SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC), the three highest ranked teams from non-power conferences - using a BCS-like formula - get guaranteed spots, then the remaining eight spots are open to at-large teams. The SEC would love this. It would be interesting to see if Notrde Dame could hook in through the ACC spot. I'd love to be in on those conversations. Here's who makes it:

(1) Oregon v. (16) San Diego State

(2) Kansas State v. (15) Rutgers

(3) Notre Dame v. (14) Michigan (or USC if they beat UCLA and play Oregon closely again)

(4) Alabama v. (13) Louisiana Tech

(5) Florida v. (12) Nebraska

(6) Texas A&M v. (11) Oklahoma

(7) Florida State v. (10) South Carolina

(8) LSU v. (9) Clemson

Result: Our best looking bracket yet. Some smaller schools get their chance to play Cinderella. And while they're obviously in worse shape than they would be in the previous option, it's a whole lot better than the status quo. Plus, the reward for being in the top one or two is enormous: while Notre Dame has a rematch with pesky Michigan, Oregon gets a relative cakewalk versus San Diego State. I can really sink my teeth into this option.

Final Thoughts

The last option strikes me as the best playoff option, although it does seriously bring the bowl system into question. With that said, I'm in a unique position: I absolutely love the NFL - specifically the Bears - but am only a big fan of college football. Because of the primacy of the NFL in my mind, I don't terribly mind the controversy that surrounds the end of every college football season. It gives me something else to follow. Had Penn State not lost to Michigan in 2005, run the table, and still been edged out of the title game in favor of Texas and Reggie Bush's Illicit Payments, maybe I'd be singing a different tune. As it is, give me all or nothing (16 or four). Don't give me four teams.